Marc Faber's 2014 Predictions

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Marc Faber has 3 very contrarian predictions for 2014 that we are sure will have the yammering yay-bobs screaming. While "everyone thinks stocks can continue to rise," Faber sees "the US market as expensive," and will return very little over the next few years. Furthermore, he adds, while "some stocks are not terribly expensive; but just like in the year 2000, [social media] stocks are grossly over-valued," and a short basket in the most egregious will return at least 30% next year. Lastly, Faber exclaims, "given all the money printing that is going on globally... physical gold is a good insurance."

Click image for interview (no embed)

 

In an interview with Talking Numbers' Brian Sullivan, Faber offers what he thinks is next for the world in 2014:

1. The market will decline from current levels

Faber says: "My sense is that at the present time, the US market is relatively expensive compared to foreign markets, especially to European markets and to emerging markets. On a cyclically-adjusted P/E [price-to-earnings] basis, it is actually going to return very little over the next seven to 10 years.

2. Best shorts for 2014: Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, and Veeva Systems

Faber says: "If you look at the entire market, some stocks are not terribly expensive and some stocks are very expensive. It's like in year 2000, not every stock was overpriced. At that time, the NASDAQ was grossly overvalued but, say, resource shares and so-called 'old economy' companies were relatively inexpensive or absolutely cheap. In the present instance, I think that stocks like Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, [and] Veeva Systems are grossly overvalued and that the basket of shorts in these stocks will return you at least 30% next year."

3. Best longs for 2014: Gold, gold shares, and Vietnamese stocks

Faber says: "Given all the money printing that is going on globally – and not just in the US – and given that the total credit as a percent of the advanced economies is now 30% higher than in 2007 before the crisis hit, I think that gold is a good insurance."

"I'd rather buy something that is reasonably priced. And, I think gold shares are very inexpensive. So a basket of gold shares I think next year could easily appreciate 30%."

"I think the Vietnamese stock market, which this year was up 22% [and] which is not bad for an emerging market, will continue to go up."

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Fri, 12/27/2013 - 18:39 | 4280338 666
666's picture

4. F*** Marc Faber.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 18:41 | 4280344 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Are you a sex slave? A young man perhaps? That would help.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 19:03 | 4280393 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

If that was a dig directed @ 666, Faber got the short end of it. 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 19:12 | 4280410 flacon
flacon's picture

Both Faber and Rogers cautioned about gold. It's Eric King from KWN that has been persistently promoting gold and gold stocks every week regardless of micro or macro conditions. Anyone owning any gold stocks in the past three years knows full well what the performance has been. 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 19:24 | 4280432 666
666's picture

I am fed up with billionaires, celebrities, or anyone who's well known to the masses predicting whatever. I don't care if they're right or wrong. That's why I gave him a thumbs down.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 20:06 | 4280488 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Making predictions (correctly!) is very difficult.  I know, because I have tried and have usually been WRONG.  Nonetheless, unless someone is clearly talking their book (typical and common), I admire people for thinking this through and taking their best shot.

I will be thinking over the next few days as well re 2014.  I will not make predictions, as (above mentioned) they are no good.  But there is PLENTY to think about.  I will get started soon...

Best to all finishing 2013 and then into 2014!

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 23:17 | 4280923 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I predict, that for the year 2014, people will continue to make wrong predictions !!!

That is all for now, smoke if ya got em...

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 00:34 | 4281065 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture

Faber has had the same commentary since the 1980s. Here's Faber in August 2013 predicting the market will crash before the year is over.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100950234#_gus

I like Faber.....I really do, but the guy has been just dead wrong. That being said, Faber seems like a great guy to share a pilsner with. The great irony is that doomer mongers like Faber actually strengthen the market. So long as everyone questions whether the market can go higher, it will.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 01:16 | 4281121 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

I agree, and will be buying Twitter, Facebook, Netflix, and the rest. S&P up another 20%+ in 2014. As long as everyone thinks it will (or very likely could) go down, it will continue to go higher.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 06:09 | 4281360 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

who is everyone exactly...???
I think you are confused,, if you want to continue long ok,,, but some of those are suicide and a few tiny shorts are a good casino bet.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 09:21 | 4281480 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Stock and house prices have been artificially propped up by the Fed. As market forces sink in we will see them correct I suspect. The 10-yr is already over 3% and I see house sales dropping and builders offering many more 'incentives' for their new houses.

Stagnant Wages will remain a Big problem. I don't see any company in my area increasing wages and many are even still cutting benefits.

The flood of cheap pabor will continue to saturate our economy resulting in even greater pressure on wages esp in IT and blue collar areas.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 09:58 | 4281510 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

Farber is like a broken clock ....an OLD broken clock at that ....

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 11:57 | 4281624 SilverShortage
SilverShortage's picture

Via Marc Faber's Blog : http://marcfabernews.com

 

Owning Some Physical Gold Is A Prudent Insurance Basically we are in an environment where central banks are monetizing debts and where the balance sheets of central banks are increasing, and this will continue, especially in the United States and Europe. We are also in an environment where in the long run, a lot of sovereign debts will either not be paid or will have to be inflated away. So owning some physical gold is a prudent insurance. I am specifying here 'physical gold' because one wants to protect oneself as an investor for the potential of a systemic collapse of the financial system.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 12:21 | 4281655 ATM
ATM's picture

Crazy talk! Money printing will save us all just like it has always done throughout history.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 10:06 | 4281522 thestarl
thestarl's picture

As i've said before i'm no financial guy but stop the printing presses period and lets see what happens and increase interest rates to normal levels game over.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 12:26 | 4281665 ATM
ATM's picture

Housing, upon which rides 50% of the US economy today, will crash. Unemployment will rocket, Government debt will explode, intrest expense will go through the roof and crash the federal budget. 

What could go wrong with that? Rates are not going much higher than they are right now and I think will go much lower as this little blip in rates will be shown to have killed any growth in the economy. The Fed will be forced to step on the printing accelerator again thereby distorting everything and anything from real price discovery.

We live in a mirage created by money printing and money pringint cannot last forever but it can go on for a very long time. So buy some physical for the eventual meltdown. It may come after you are dead but your kids will appreciate the forethought.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 11:07 | 4281559 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I like Faber.....I really do, but the guy has been just dead wrong. 

 

 

Faber has very good analysis of past happenings. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWI2OPcabtk

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 21:19 | 4282545 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

"but the guy has been just dead wrong"

One wonders where he gets his money from in that event.

Sun, 12/29/2013 - 14:01 | 4283363 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

PunditTracker :  http://blog.pundittracker.com/barrons-roundtable-2012-update/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=barrons-roundtable-2012-update

 

 

Zulauf in the lead at 23.8 CAGR over 2005 to 2011

Faber in 2nd place with 20.2%.

Any other comments about track record?   I am very curious to see the stats next month...

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 23:20 | 4280925 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Thanks and the same to you. You're a positive and cheerful presence here, best to you and yours.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 06:26 | 4281366 ebear
ebear's picture

"Making predictions (correctly!) is very difficult."

Especially about the future.  Those are really tough!

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 20:48 | 4280595 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

That's why I gave him a thumbs down.

The other thumb is in your ass.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 00:04 | 4281023 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

And the dick is in your mouth.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 01:51 | 4281176 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Naww....papa don't eat baby food.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 19:31 | 4280435 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Forget stock prices, although I would buy mining stocks now because they're very undervalued.  Gold is a finite element in a finite world loaded with paper debt.  After 2008 and all the new liquidity that's being created, do you wait to see if the price drops? No.  Because the day will come when they run out of physical to give to china and the real price will be set by the market.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 21:06 | 4280626 yabyum
yabyum's picture

I have kept a balanced and small miner potfolio for the last six years. I have come to expect the bright red blood gushing from my anus as normal.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 00:32 | 4281064 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 22:31 | 4280803 webspin
webspin's picture

They say there's a finete amount of water and unlike gold, it's essential to life. Can I sell you a lake at bargain basement prices?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 22:50 | 4280856 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Before you sell me on your ideas, Why don't you start by buying yourself a good water filter. 

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 06:08 | 4281361 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

so you are investing in water how ?

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 09:25 | 4281485 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Harbanger is right I think. I added so me FCX myslef this week. It's too low right now. There are other strong miners but that is my favorite.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 19:29 | 4280437 knukles
knukles's picture

Listen up and listen good, Pilgrims.
If the SEC's budget gets expanded significantly, another great long will be midget tranny porn.

Hi, I'm from the government and here to stick my arm up to my elbow and....

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 20:00 | 4280500 markettime
markettime's picture

Wait....isnt the S&P at 1840 or around that level? Sooooo why is he saying 1814? Am I missing something?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 20:39 | 4280580 deKevelioc
deKevelioc's picture

It's the Swiss-German accent.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 22:37 | 4280828 yogibear
yogibear's picture

When the Fed keeps pushing up stock prices how can you be bearish. One day it will be beyond their control.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 08:17 | 4281414 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

Anyone owning any gold stocks in the past three years knows full well what the performance has been. 

The FIAT dollar is a 4 headed hydra, read FEKETE, anything threatening it will be faught hard.  In the end the fighting becomes so fierce the 4 heads begin lashing out in any and every direction.  It is at that time the 4 necks will knot together and aphyxiation or self destruction wil occur.

Gold is the only hold right now for the long term.  Sit back and watch the fight. The gold stocks will probably be nationalized at some point.  If they are giong into Africa with drones to get gold, you can bet they will take the gold miners at home.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 23:07 | 4280892 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Mscreant is just mad because she wants a threesome with Faber and Rogers

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 23:12 | 4280900 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Wow,didn't know that so many zerohedgers had an emotional attachment to Fabers penis,I guess they drank his juice. He will be right some day and until then he's wrong.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 23:54 | 4280999 Crusader79
Crusader79's picture

His first prediction is already wrong.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 06:58 | 4281390 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

"I think the Vietnamese stock market, which this year was up 22% [and] which is not bad for an emerging market, will continue to go up."

Yeah right, and you'll get your whopping 22% 'return' in Vietnamese DONG (no joke!). Last time I was in Vietnam (about 6 months ago) I changed €50 and, if I remember correctly, I got something like 1,5 million Dong for it in return.

What's next? Faber recommending Zimbabwe stocks?

I like Faber's Gold call though, but I'm already curious how he will wiggle away from underneath that one if Gold tanks once the stock market tanks. Whether real or manipulated, Gold IMHO WILL be dragged down by stocks if a big sell off happens, like in 2008.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 11:14 | 4281563 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Meh, what's a little Dong between friends? 

 

Oh, you gotta wittle a dong!

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 18:40 | 4280341 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Marc gets gold right. This should be interesting.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 18:44 | 4280354 seek
seek's picture

Let's hope so. It'd be nice to see AU go back into the green trendline.

I think he called the shorts right as well. Not that it means they can't defy gravity, but my intuition tells me 2014 is the year some of the short guys will make money.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 20:01 | 4280495 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

But, it's OK with me if Au stays,down a little bit longer...  Just a wee bit more time to buy some more.  But, I will keep buying as gold goes up, up and away irregardless!  Fishez!

They bash gold, OK, I'll buy.  Gold goes up, I'll buy.  Higher prices means fewer ounces.  But, a higher price is OK too.  You know, for the Central Bank of DoChenRollingBearing and all...  

:)

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 23:43 | 4282713 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Here's to $400/oz.  We all know the circus cannot continue forever.  It would be better if we can get more insurance before the fall.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 23:13 | 4280908 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

So he was right ? Did he say it was because the price of gold is manipulated or some other bull shit ?

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 00:35 | 4281070 lewy14
lewy14's picture

My recollection of Faber's call on gold lately has been that one should not value it; it's insurance that's stashed away.

And in this I agree with him.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 17:11 | 4282202 giggler321
giggler321's picture

If he did, it would be the first time.  He even admitted on CNBC that he should have called top before the drop from 1900 to where we are today.

 

I ask anyone to predict anything other than collapse because in a manipulated world, unless you're the manipulator - the only thing you can do is guess.  I would hate to be one of the guys who empted their 401K's into yellow at 1900 only to find todays manipulated or otherwise buy it now figure of 1200

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 18:42 | 4280349 falak pema
falak pema's picture

say one thing do the opposite; machiavelli was the mark  of a Fable fibber of fame.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 18:42 | 4280351 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Marc got out of gold, said he would, and then it dropped like a brick. I am inclined to pay attention to his gold calls.

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