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Marc Faber's 2014 Predictions
Marc Faber has 3 very contrarian predictions for 2014 that we are sure will have the yammering yay-bobs screaming. While "everyone thinks stocks can continue to rise," Faber sees "the US market as expensive," and will return very little over the next few years. Furthermore, he adds, while "some stocks are not terribly expensive; but just like in the year 2000, [social media] stocks are grossly over-valued," and a short basket in the most egregious will return at least 30% next year. Lastly, Faber exclaims, "given all the money printing that is going on globally... physical gold is a good insurance."
Click image for interview (no embed)
In an interview with Talking Numbers' Brian Sullivan, Faber offers what he thinks is next for the world in 2014:
1. The market will decline from current levels
Faber says: "My sense is that at the present time, the US market is relatively expensive compared to foreign markets, especially to European markets and to emerging markets. On a cyclically-adjusted P/E [price-to-earnings] basis, it is actually going to return very little over the next seven to 10 years.
2. Best shorts for 2014: Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, and Veeva Systems
Faber says: "If you look at the entire market, some stocks are not terribly expensive and some stocks are very expensive. It's like in year 2000, not every stock was overpriced. At that time, the NASDAQ was grossly overvalued but, say, resource shares and so-called 'old economy' companies were relatively inexpensive or absolutely cheap. In the present instance, I think that stocks like Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, [and] Veeva Systems are grossly overvalued and that the basket of shorts in these stocks will return you at least 30% next year."
3. Best longs for 2014: Gold, gold shares, and Vietnamese stocks
Faber says: "Given all the money printing that is going on globally – and not just in the US – and given that the total credit as a percent of the advanced economies is now 30% higher than in 2007 before the crisis hit, I think that gold is a good insurance."
"I'd rather buy something that is reasonably priced. And, I think gold shares are very inexpensive. So a basket of gold shares I think next year could easily appreciate 30%."
"I think the Vietnamese stock market, which this year was up 22% [and] which is not bad for an emerging market, will continue to go up."
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Yes. All 65 million Thais work exclusively in the sex industry, you rocket scientist you.
Unlike the semi-sacred halo-endowed Americans, none of whom work in any sex industry, or prison industrial complex, or arms industry or big gubment parasitic industry.
Why else does an English speaking person decide out of 200 countries in the world to move to Thailand?
Well, applying your broad and sweeping simpleton rubric for Foreign Unknown Countries Residence Selection (FUCRS) basically any number of vices, immoralities, sacriliges, moral transgressions and / or obscenities can be applied to nearly all of those 200 countries with ease. The fact that you believe to know so much about Thailand's alleged "obvious reasons"--to me the fantastic food actually comes to mind first, followed by the easy-going people, relaxed life style, total freedom from government busy bodies, spectacular natural environment, modern conveniences and vibrant cities--but apparently you have other priorities in life, which says more about you than Thailand. I wonder what a peak at your hard drive would reveal. No, actually I don't give a flying fuck about your hard drive. Do As Thou Wilt. Do No Harm.
--[Colorful Expletive Masked from Thin-Skinned Literalist Bible Thumpers]--
Don't bother reciting your credo. I'm sure its something along the lines of, "Judge All. Don't Let Facts Get in the Way. Always Be Merciless. Yes, I Am Holier Than Thou."
SMBleepingH.
Ignorance is a horrible thing. It causes people to create snap judgements with little to no evidence to support their position, usually based on conjecture and heresay. Yes, there is a sex industry in Thailand, just like every country on the planet. Pattaya has to be the largest whore house on the planet, but there is more to the country than cheap hookers and booze. Just sayin'.
Poverty and a thriving sex trade go hand in hand, there is nothing unusual about it nor Thailand. It is a no real reflection on Thailand or its people. Several years ago I was reading about 'middle class' teen girls in ohio providing 'services' in mall parking lots to get some money to buy something in the mall. It is the future for Amerika as its political system relentlessly pursues its globalist designed path.
And there aren't millions of hookers in the USA, probably more now with unemployment, and working poverty wage...trying to make ends meet?
Who knows, maybe Chinese go to the USA and Europ on sex tours to screw white chicks.
As much as I like Marc, I don't think he has a full grasp on how corrupted the markets are and how they are manipulated. Therefore his assumptions are hit and miss.
But 2013 still isn't over. And I stand by the prediction. "2014 isn't until Wednesday." And if any of you want to bet against me by all means pick a third party and lets place our bets.
My bold prediction for 2014: Marc goes full Hendry and throws in the towel. Market crashes a month later.
I am afraid the gold price will be manipulated even in a crash at the official level by one mean or another. There something more sinister going on when no one who is worth say $10 to $20 billion does not put in an order for say $5 billion in physical delivered silver to set the price on fire and perhaps even the system. Everyone has their anxieties whether they have squillions or whether they have nothing. Go figure that one out.
Hey Faber! I heard about you and all that sideways pussy!
Mama told me not to come, Mama told me not to come,
That ain't the way to have fun, son.
That ain't the way to have fun.
Mama told me, Mama told me, Mama told me..........
Long "Blindfolds" I agree with Faber and don't need to see it.
If some dumb fuck can crash the copper market, anything is possible!
Exactly,so why would anyone make predictions ? If Faber said that everything is manipulated and there is no way to make any predictions then I would give the guy some respect,until then fuck all of you koolaid drinking dumbasses.
Predictions?
China up and down like a yoyo...loses financial control momentarilty - unintended consequences.
AUD bounces around like a yoyo
RBA lowers rates twice
Aust unemployment spikes
Aust housing market goes soft
Cartel/BIS/CB lose control on paper gold/silver 2nd quarter 2014
Gold touches $3,000 late 2014 before retreating to $2,200
Silver touches $40
Spain and Greece collapse totally..Greece to leave
Japan do even more massive printing .. Yen stengthens.. lol
Mid year China announces gold holdings at unexpected high levels.
Massive oil and gas reserves proven up in Central Aust and Georgina Basin.
USA never gets around to real tappering as fear grips markets.
I have been reading from this site for a number of years, I have found the reading both informative and educational,
I notice almost all comments which are purely from NEW members are immature and quite vile, come on people please show some love and desist with the profanity.
Rememberthat the education you were given or your parents paid for is a foundation for you to build on, read your posts and question your own morality, the world has enough idiots running the show, dont try to be one or act as they do it spoils what is a beautiful meeting place for beautiful minds...
happier new year peace & love
Eventually he'll be right, but everyone who listened to him from the start will have missed this bull market.
As far as #2 goes. Banks are very much old technology and being phased out. Any technology company that begins aggregating small amounts of money via P2P to provide lending would be a buy and companies like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America etc and anything supplied counterfeit money from Central Banks would all be sells.
Someone asked why I don't study economics in college and my reply was that colleges don't teach economics as economics work. Like what college is going to teach how the CIA and military industrial complex receives money from central banks. How Central Banks distribute money taken from one nation and supply it to another; How to write a bill and get congress to pass it so your competition has no legal means to enter the market you are in. How the Central Banks choose politicians to be elected by citizens. And, finally how the FED's software manages the stock market indexes in various countries around the world. It is possible that a thorough investigation and analysis of available data could lead to some conclusive results but the system is based on FRAUD and counterfeiting.
Perhaps a conclusive result on Kerry's drug running operations would be more easily difined. But then you would need the information that the NSA has as well as worldwide addiction patterns.
I wonder if Yale skull and bones students get taught that stuff.
Anyhow I have no idea of why anyone would go to Harvard to study business.
Manipuflation's 2014 Predictions
1. Fuck
2. Fuckers
3. Sons of Bitches
4. Motherfuckers
5. Cocksuckers
My predictions are that Zerohedgers will use all of these words either by themselves or in combination there of in 2014. THIS is an accurate forecast for all involved.
Bitchez.
That is true MsCreant.
Since we are in the business of predictions here is something to chew on :
Corporate Japan sits on 70 trillion nest egg -- and sits and sits- Nikkei Asian Review
China 2020 -- Strong, rich and unhappy- Nikkei Asian Review
Things looking (mostly) up for Japanese stocks in 2014- Nikkei Asian Review
So if you deny the Fuku fumes as being permanently potent... you COULD see a bright future for Japan in 2014 and for Japan/China thru to 2020 !
For those interested in the energy thread :
China hands 'death sentence' to 75% of solar cell makers- Nikkei Asian Review
Is there any financial resource that actually catalogs and tracks the performance of these prognosticators?
Seems like this could be handled fairly easily, citing an individual or institution, asset class, a prediction and a specific timeframe in which the prediction/forecast would manifest. Surely this would/could drive ad revenue and certainly there would be significant bantering about whats stated in the comments section.
Answering my own question -This site seems to accomodate the theory but is somewhat stale.
Cramer gets a D. Kudlow, Kass get F's.
Shilling an F.
Roubini C -
While Barrons and Faber earn A's.
Worst 2013 predictions.
Go to youtube, type "faber 2010" "faber 2011" or 2012 and have a laugh how dead wrong was he every year.
That stock market game is owned. They will shake every dime of real money out, longs and shorts. If you make money there, you just got caught in the right gears of the machine.
Just who in the hell do these well-heeled dirty rotten scoundrels think they are?
Making dumbass predictions is easy, like taking candy from a baby.
You can lead a bull to the whatchamacallit, but you can't make him stampede.
Predictions from Bernie Madoff would be more interesting and probably more precise and accurate.
Anybody want to trade 20 US minted American Silver Eagles for a US minted Gold Eagle? Your gold is now worth 400 dollars if you make the trade based on one US minted double eagle gold coin is of equal value to 20 one ounce US minted silver dollar coins.
Now why would you do that when you can sell your gold eagle and buy 40, maybe 50 ASE's right now? Funny how the money becomes debauched.
Who wants some Dodge product for 1.3 million when you can have a brand new Maybach for 450 grand?
Desire adds to the price. That's why gold is 60 times more expensive than silver. If nobody wanted any, the price would be nothing, nada, zilch, zero, free. Couldn't give it away. Must have some utility, it has value for some reason.
Everybody thinks about the future all of the time. If your belly is empty, you think about having something to eat. You begin immediately to plan to fulfill the need. In the future, you will have something to eat.
Your stomach forces you to think about the future or you'll starve to death like Pavlov's dog.
I predict I'll go to my refrigerator and help myself to the beer I have been thinking about having for the past hour. 100 percent accurate prediction. A dumbass prediction, for sure, but I'll get it right every time.
Prediction for 2014: The status quo will be maintained unless it can't be maintained.
There, fixed it for y'all.
I have to give a plus one for that succinct statement. But without some fatalistic yet dark attempts at humour where would we be? What you have to realize is that all ZeroHedge is a collection of smartasses. Too smart for any other board or our own good. We do not comply well. I guess that we are just hard of hearing. We have done battle on the net since it's inception. We all know what will happen eventually so we fiddle while Rome has a bit a brushfire going under it's ass. We offered the solution a long time ago but no one cared so we fan those flames as we can.
I can only hope that one day after we are all gone that some aliens or evolved indigenous species find one of our hard drives so they can get the other side of the story. Our stupidity as mammals should be fascinating to them.
But for those who have laughed at us and treated us with derision, it is very hard for them to look us in the eye these days.
Toby Connor: Another Bubble Looking for a Pin
Toby Connor provides a very interesting set of charts and market observations. Nothing grows up to the sky and he reminds us that every parabolic move ends in correction. This Friday extremely volatile FOREX moves are the first sign of repositioning by the major players. 10 Year Yield has reached 3.0%, mortgage rates are already going higher and mortgage applications are collapsing - markets can not be sustained by only rising Twitter and other social media. Janet Yellen will be tested very early in her rein and idea that QE can be actually extended is not so crazy any more.http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/toby-connor-another-bubble-looking-f...
High valuations, excessive debts, and extremely bullish sentiment do not necessary imply that a US stock market collapse is imminent. This especially not in an environment of unlimited money printing but if we believe in Selling Disciplines then the combination of high valuations and extremely positive sentiment strongly argues for reducing one’s exposure to US equities via: http://www.marcfabersblog.com