2013 Summed Up In Just One Chart

Tyler Durden's picture

Given it is the last day of what is being reported as a breath-takingly good year, we thought a gentle reminder of the reality underlying the exuberance was worthwhile. Presented with little comment, we give you 2013... the death cross...


And what to expect for 2014? Well, that's easy... as is evident from the following chart of real economic expectations for 2014...


(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

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666's picture

I wonder when the World GDP EConomic Forecast will be in negative numbers. 2015?

knukles's picture

Quoting John Wayne; "You're bein' mighty optimistic, there, fella."

Ham-bone's picture

bad is good cause the badder it gets the gooder QE gets...and QE gonna get gooder.

Drink up ZH friends and fuckall...at least for a night.  See y'all in the 2014 edition of ""as the Ponzi whirls"

Yen Cross's picture

  Before I lose you Ham-bone. I have got to thank you for the wealth of bond knowledge you bestowed on Z/H this year!

 Speaking not for just myself but many silent others, your knowledge of the bond market and describing forward operations was exemplary. Most bond guys are introverted and guard their secrets closely.

  Example; This guy was a good customer at M.L Stern (South West Securities) years ago.  This guy must have had a model that made millions off of 5-10 basis points on 2's.  He was so tight the crack of dawn wasn't safe! I wasn't even in the bond business.

Ham-bone's picture

Yen, no matter what anybody sez bout you...you are a good currency and a nice guy.

Happy new year!


Yen Cross's picture

  Thank You, Ham-Bone.  

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

In Russia, is 2014. Already Boris is know 2014 is suck. AmeriKa, 2013 is also suck, but turn back while you are still can.

Yen Cross's picture

Merika we submit to wookie....

GetZeeGold's picture



As a Canadian website developer who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.....I've just got one thing to say......



Manthong's picture

oh gosh..

may your near year bits be bullish...   it?

heh heh..  bs comment, maybe.. bust best intent to you and your's....and to to all smart enough to be here.

Harlequin001's picture

and to you too Manthong my good man.

By far the most bullish news I've heard all year... by far... so far...


Trust me, I'm a doctor...

Harbanger's picture

The gooder it gets the better it is.  I will use this occasion to contemplate our Lord and give grace.

Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Europe is already falling into deflation. Spain, Greece and Portugal are already there, with Ireland and others close behind.

lordbyroniv's picture



so I guess this means even higher stock prices?




PLira's picture

I think it means, "same as it ever was" until this whole thing goes "Ka-Fuckin-Bloowie".

Then look the fuck out as the fail will happen very quickly, weeks if not days, all around the world.

The PTB will roll out whatever plan they have to enslave the lessers of the globe who matter, cow dung harvesteres in India excepted.

You better have a source of food, sequestered shelter and armaments.

It is going to get fuggin ugly.

I don't know when, and I hope not in 2014 as I still have shit to do but I doubt I have that long.

GoldRulesPaperDrools's picture

It means higher prices for ammo ... especially as things unwind and more people get more nervous.  Stock up while you can, the manufacturers are starting to catch up (somewhat) with demand.

Now's a good time too to get that extra pistol/rifle/shotgun you want before the next Socialist, er, Democratic push for more gun control.

max2205's picture

Best wishes and Happy New Year all you ZH'ers!

See ya next year

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

May you wake up and find no shrubbery.

Notice aside, now is not Thai "woman" or China "woman" that is bother Boris in advertising space, but Japan girl. Japan girl is sweet but is have bad teeth. Not is as bad as UK girl, but why is Japan girl have bad teeth!? Advertising on other side is dental plan. Boris is hairy back with extra set of nipple (very tender, not so much fun). Why is "smart" ad not to show "Hair and Nipple Removal"!? Maybe in Japan hairy back is not so okay?

Please to have happy new year!

bonin006's picture


I turned off add block to investigate your problem. I got an add for generic "Asian Lady". She has nice smile and nice teeth, and dress has slipped off of one shoulder.

I think you need to take care of your back problem, then use web cam to let proof of correction leak onto internet. Then you will get adds with more attractive women.

Zero Point's picture

Dunno Boris, but maybe this explains the teeth:


Japanese chicks are cute as hell, but this is getting weird now.

Mr Pink's picture

Yahoo commenters predicting another 25% gain in 2014 and thanking Obama for making them rich

Read at your own risk


disabledvet's picture

I predict zero Government left as Obama celebrates "total annihilation of all those who voted for me" and a fantastic book deal about how the down and out finally had their voices heard...ever...only to be snuffed out in a freak accident of kaleidoscopic proportions. Now shut up and spot bogarting the doobie Biden!

HardlyZero's picture

Difference of GDP Consensus vs. Forecast is 0.4%.

So the expectation is for a step function in GDP on Jan 1 2014 due to ? 

(sudden rush of animal spirits ?...in which category/class or worker, specific direction or chaotic ?)

deflator's picture

Just a blip on the charts bitchez! Sarc?

CrashisOptimistic's picture

I don't think guys really understand the power of share buybacks and HFT.

This is not a market anymore.  Don't trade in it.  Walk away.


dick cheneys ghost's picture

here is another one from trav7777 ZH 2010

''It's important to distinguish between TRUE fiat systems and what we have, a credit system.

Our money is NOT fiat, ok?  It's not.  Those who say that it is or has been are wrong.  Our money is backed up by future production, the ability to pay the interest with additional credit backstopped by future growth.  It's as simple as that.

Debt-based money is not printed, it's not fiat like tally sticks.

A true fiat system is subject to debasement, sure, but there are means by which people can weather that, via gold or land or cattle or pussies or oil, things which are real and have value independent of the currency denominator.

Tally sticks worked just fine as a PURE fiat money system for a HELL of a lot longer than the FRN has been around.  In fact, a fiat system properly managed generates NO inflation and is simple, elegant, and just.  The government issues currency then taxes it out of existence.  Obviously, this is suboptimal compared to Real Bills, but its longevity hinges upon "properly managed," which true fiat systems HAVE actually been during some times.

Debt money requires growth because the interest owed has not been created at the time of creditmoney creation.  If nobody steps up to borrow at least as much as the coupon, the system begins to mathematically implode.  That is where we were in 2008.

I told Douchinger years ago that the "answer" to this deflation was for the CBs to forgive the loans, essentially printing money to forgive all the debts owed it.  ALL FRNs are by nature ultimately loans from the Federal Reserve.  The Fed is effectively as we speak printing the interest owed it on the outstanding monetary base.  This is all that is necessary to prevent a catastrophic deflationary spiral, but it will not remove the deflationary pressure in the aggregate money supply as existing loans' principal balances are ultimately repaid.  This is why the Mishes out there still "see" deflation.  There IS deflation, but the math of preventing a spiral is virtually trivial.

Repayment extinguishes creditmoney.  The USG is currently the only entity that is continuing to borrow to prevent mass extinguishment.  This is why we should continue to expect national debt to exponentiate.  It has to, otherwise as FRNs are repaid and extinguished, there will be less "money" against existing production.

Now, as production in the aggregate declines, if the outstanding credit base does the same, we WILL see "deflation" but NO material effect on prices.  This is where I believe we are.  The precious FRN crowd has some bad news awaiting them, because as the numbers of things contracts concomitant to contraction in outstanding credit, this is a classic recipe for level prices even as it becomes harder to get money.  What this will look like is severe or even hyper realworld "inflation" against *deflationary* monetarist metrics.  It's important to think about this a few times to really get it.

Money becomes more "scarce" even as production contracts at the same time.  Money vs goods supply/demand law dictates in that case level price but money becomes harder to get.  This will have all the feel of severe inflation (because of lack of access to money, i.e., income) but the price tags will indicate no material change.  Everything just ends up priced out of your reach.  Again, just like all the states around the world that have suffered through collapses, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico.  Shit is expensive there in a real world sense.

This is precisely why there is still an argument over outcome.  The Fed's printing of the interest plus the government's replacement of lost organic credit demand will create a monetarist inflationary bias.  But the REAL trends are of contraction both in production and in credit.  Any hyperinflationary tipping point will occur only at col


great comment in this thread........

Yen Cross's picture

  @dick cheneys ghost

   Are you Francis_ s' vicarious puppet?  I'm not joo.

  Wtf ? Why are you so infatuated with the ghost of Francis_Sawyer?

  If Francis is all he thinks he is, he'll find a way back in. ref;  He's an expert at sneaking into MLB functions in San Francisco...

dick cheneys ghost's picture

the above post has nothing to do with francis........I love francis and miss him terribly, colorful comments aside, he had a lot to teach

I come to ZH to learn and want to learn as much as I can about our monetary system (debt-money).

I did not get a chance to read trav7777........ he had some epic posts, as did Mako, in fact I tapered myself out of the matrix in 2010 on a thread that included comments by Mako.........

to me, Mako, trav777 and francis were and are great teachers of our monetary system and how it works........I seek those comments out and will share the best ones with the board

Yen Cross's picture

 66.67% isn't bad. You actually found redeeming information from "777"?

  Dick, I like you. You know how to lay wood on a shelter.


Was Trav777 the guy back in the day that would say "it only costs $5 to dig it up" (silver)? Then TMosley would chew him a new arsehole. What happened to Slewie the Pirat? I really liked him alot. I have been here for four years but just started posting recently. Not that I miss him, but is MDB still here?

Yen Cross's picture

 I watched "trav 777" get beaten like a step child in 2010-'11. You guys' ate him for lunch. Now you love him?

swanpoint's picture

Trav777 was dead on with the bearishness on silver..


yen      Dick may have loved Trav777 but I'm just the guy who rushed home from the office to watch trav get his beating every day. 

Yen Cross's picture

 Thanks for being "upstanding gentlemen". I stand corrected.

 At least NIHILIST CIPHER has the nuts enough! To tell the truth.


  All 23 weeks 6 days of it!  Hey you little fuck!  You're watched.


yen        If you had bothered to read above..........I've been here for years just started posting recently. I mostly liked to read what you guys say and learn from it. Ham-bone has a specialty- bonds you are tight in the FX dept. I have specialties-  Just waited til time was right to slip in what I know before the SHTF.         Nobody gives a rats ass what you watch.    HAPPY FUCKING NEW YEAR!

Yen Cross's picture

 Fuck you and the bullshit horse you rode in on ass hole. You've been here for 26 weeks, and until I see otherwise go screw yourself! Z/H has been online for just over 5 years. I've been here for over 3 of them!

  If you had even a slightest  bit of respect, you would have not gotten involved in the conversation. You're either extremely stupid, or immature. Either way I don't want anything to do with you.

  If you have specialties you could have suggested them , as opposed to suggesting I shoud show respect for some idiot that idolizes  Francis_ Sawyer? Are you fucking kidding me?

   How do you even fuction in life  NIHILIST CIPHER?   Does your mommy pick you socks out for you?

  Were you that child that had his head flushed down a toilet every day? Have you ever played a sport other then "pocket pool"?

  Show me a chart or proof of your bullshit existence! I've got plenty of material on file. If you can't find it, I'll be MOAR then happy to provide it for you .


You know what Yen, you're right, should have stayed out of it. Come to think of it Dick's posts piss me off most of the time. BTW my mommy died 30 years ago so, no she doesn't pick out my socks. 

Yen Cross's picture

   Happy New Year. I look forward  to seeing some sort of something from you.

The_Dude's picture

Trav told it like it was.....love him or hate him he was typically grounded in his arguments and could back it up with facts/logic when needed....goes a long way in my book.

And yes...I miss him...the site is less without him.

The_Dude's picture

Why did we get rid of him again?  Too much truthiness that some couldn't handle..???


Anyone know where Trav went?

q99x2's picture

According to Ray Dalio world GDP had to be above 2%. It wasn't. So they lied.

So when GDP actually hit 2% was probably the time Dalio made that public statement. The Heart beat now is an echo that decreases at the inverse squared of 2%.per year.

We are dooomed soon. Some sooner than others.

If you count the number of days that an average person lives if they live to 70 then if you are 35 years old you have 12,775 days. But if you divide by the above inverse square law starting at 2

You have 6,387.5  days in 2014

1596.875 days in 2015

99.8 days 2016

And about January 3, 2016 most everybody on earth is dead.

So that is my prediction for 2016. The mushroom clouds appear around the world on January 3.

My prediction for 2014 is that I'm going to get up off my ass and do something before it is too late.

disabledvet's picture

Dalio is also all in on treasuries and I don't think he'll have to wait Wong for the bet to start paying off. this is easily the greatest junk bond bubble ever in human history...and why loading up on debt is the answer when the USA is fast becoming the biggest free cash flow generator in human history is beyond me. I can think of a dozen federal Agenicies that can be eliminated by technology in just the next five years. if prices really do fall out of bed just in time for jobs and incomes to surge you could get a spectacular jump in the savings rate. talk about push cart wars. forget hot dogs on Wall Street...I'm talking "the first to start colonizing the moon."

SmallerGovNow2's picture

"get up off my ass and do something before it is too late."

Good point...

TrulyStupid's picture

I'm going to spend the whole year walking backwards.