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George Soros On The World's Shifting Challenges
Authored by George Soros, originally posted at Project Syndicate,
As 2013 comes to a close, efforts to revive growth in the world’s most influential economies – with the exception of the eurozone – are having a beneficial effect worldwide. All of the looming problems for the global economy are political in character.
After 25 years of stagnation, Japan is attempting to reinvigorate its economy by engaging in quantitative easing on an unprecedented scale. It is a risky experiment: faster growth could drive up interest rates, making debt-servicing costs unsustainable. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would rather take that risk than condemn Japan to a slow death. And, judging from the public’s enthusiastic support, so would ordinary Japanese.
By contrast, the European Union is heading toward the type of long-lasting stagnation from which Japan is desperate to escape. The stakes are high: Nation-states can survive a lost decade or more; but the EU, an incomplete association of nation-states, could easily be destroyed by it.
The euro’s design – which was modeled on the Deutsche Mark – has a fatal flaw. Creating a common central bank without a common treasury means that government debts are denominated in a currency that no single member country controls, making them subject to the risk of default. As a consequence of the crash of 2008, several member countries became over indebted, and risk premia made the eurozone’s division into creditor and debtor countries permanent.
This defect could have been corrected by replacing individual countries’ bonds with Eurobonds. Unfortunately, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, reflecting the radical change that Germans’ attitudes toward European integration have undergone, ruled that out. Prior to reunification, Germany was the main motor of integration; now, weighed down by reunification’s costs, German taxpayers are determined to avoid becoming European debtors’ deep pocket.
After the crash of 2008, Merkel insisted that each country should look after its own financial institutions and government debts should be paid in full. Without realizing it, Germany is repeating the tragic error of the French after World War I. Prime Minister Aristide Briand’s insistence on reparations led to the rise of Hitler; Angela Merkel’s policies are giving rise to extremist movements in the rest of Europe.
The current arrangements governing the euro are here to stay, because Germany will always do the bare minimum to preserve the common currency – and because the markets and the European authorities would punish any other country that challenged these arrangements. Nonetheless, the acute phase of the financial crisis is now over. The European financial authorities have tacitly recognized that austerity is counterproductive and have stopped imposing additional fiscal constraints. This has given the debtor countries some breathing room, and, even in the absence of any growth prospects, financial markets have stabilized.
Future crises will be political in origin. Indeed, this is already apparent, because the EU has become so inward-looking that it cannot adequately respond to external threats, be they in Syria or Ukraine. But the outlook is far from hopeless; the revival of a threat from Russia may reverse the prevailing trend toward European disintegration.
As a result, the crisis has transformed the EU from the “fantastic object” that inspired enthusiasm into something radically different. What was meant to be a voluntary association of equal states that sacrificed part of their sovereignty for the common good – the embodiment of the principles of an open society – has now been transformed by the euro crisis into a relationship between creditor and debtor countries that is neither voluntary nor equal. Indeed, the euro could destroy the EU altogether.
In contrast to Europe, the United States is emerging as the developed world’s strongest economy. Shale energy has given the US an important competitive advantage in manufacturing in general and in petrochemicals in particular. The banking and household sectors have made some progress in deleveraging. Quantitative easing has boosted asset values. And the housing market has improved, with construction lowering unemployment. The fiscal drag exerted by sequestration is also about to expire.
More surprising, the polarization of American politics shows signs of reversing. The two-party system worked reasonably well for two centuries, because both parties had to compete for the middle ground in general elections. Then the Republican Party was captured by a coalition of religious and market fundamentalists, later reinforced by neo-conservatives, that moved it to a far-right extreme. The Democrats tried to catch up in order to capture the middle ground, and both parties colluded in gerrymandering Congressional districts. As a consequence, activist-dominated party primaries took precedence over general elections.
That completed the polarization of American politics. Eventually, the Republican Party’s Tea Party wing overplayed its hand. After the recent debacle of the government shutdown, what remains of the Republican establishment has begun fighting back, and this should lead to a revival of the two-party system.
The major uncertainty facing the world today is not the euro but the future direction of China. The growth model responsible for its rapid rise has run out of steam.
That model depended on financial repression of the household sector, in order to drive the growth of exports and investments. As a result, the household sector has now shrunk to 35% of GDP, and its forced savings are no longer sufficient to finance the current growth model. This has led to an exponential rise in the use of various forms of debt financing.
There are some eerie resemblances with the financial conditions that prevailed in the US in the years preceding the crash of 2008. But there is a significant difference, too. In the US, financial markets tend to dominate politics; in China, the state owns the banks and the bulk of the economy, and the Communist Party controls the state-owned enterprises.
Aware of the dangers, the People’s Bank of China took steps starting in 2012 to curb the growth of debt; but when the slowdown started to cause real distress in the economy, the Party asserted its supremacy. In July 2013, the leadership ordered the steel industry to restart the furnaces and the PBOC to ease credit. The economy turned around on a dime. In November, the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee announced far-reaching reforms. These developments are largely responsible for the recent improvement in the global outlook.
The Chinese leadership was right to give precedence to economic growth over structural reforms, because structural reforms, when combined with fiscal austerity, push economies into a deflationary tailspin. But there is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years.
How and when this contradiction will be resolved will have profound consequences for China and the world. A successful transition in China will most likely entail political as well as economic reforms, while failure would undermine still-widespread trust in the country’s political leadership, resulting in repression at home and military confrontation abroad.
The other great unresolved problem is the absence of proper global governance. The lack of agreement among the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members is exacerbating humanitarian catastrophes in countries like Syria – not to mention allowing global warming to proceed largely unhindered. But, in contrast to the Chinese conundrum, which will come to a head in the next few years, the absence of global governance may continue indefinitely.
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Die already
Completely agree with your sentiment! +1 Same goes for iCON, Buffett, Munger, et. al.
Breaking news, this just in:
OBAMA RATED THE 5TH BEST PRESIDENT!From a total of 44 US Presidents: Obama is rated as the 5th best President ever! The publicity release said,"...after only 5 years in office, Americans have rated President Obama the 5th best president ever." The details according to TEXAS A&M Study: Reagan & Lincoln tied for first, 23 presidents tied for second, 17 other presidents tied for third, Jimmy Carter came in 4th, and Obama came in fifth!
Well at least he is in the top 5!
I'm sure they pulled it from Obama's government statistics!
ROT IN HELL GEORGE SOROS!!
I hear he's buying bitcoin.
"All of the looming problems for the global economy are political in character."
LMFAO!!! Just what you want the masses to believe, hey Buffet... I mean, Soros. Friggin' pig. When is enough enough for you? Admitting the MASSIVE, structural insolvency in the banking sector might just get you some brownie points Soros.
Until admission time, keep spreading lies to skim off the masses.
Your character is Sickening.
Gotta love how George points out the "fatal flaw" in the Euro, but fails to mention how it was by design, and how this crisis will be used to "fix that flaw" with further political integration.
No failure, it's ALL BY DESIGN!
Hey George, DIAF you slimy asshole.
-everyone
We saw a definative bottom in gold here....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-31/and-now-gold-soaring
We are on the support line, 1200 for gold and 20 for silver, and when you see the above remind yourself that algorythems are controlling the trading. So the algobots are swooping in at these very certain price levels, which they have been set to do by order and instruction. It's only a matter of time before we close above 1300, probably in the next few weeks, easily by the end of the month.
that picture of him should be used at all times. lol its gold.
He should have his Che moment and have that mug retired to t-shirts too!
"The European financial authorities have tacitly recognized that austerity is counterproductive..."
Nobody told me that cutting spending was counter productive.
"Then the Republican Party was captured by a coalition of religious and market fundamentalists, later reinforced by neo-conservatives, that moved it to a far-right extreme."
The reason lefties love this line of thinking is that there is no way to refute it. Lefties make general statements that can say anything, but can not be argued with.
I've grown to see the republican party as part of the problem, but it is not for anything Soros believes.
Maybe I'm still hungover but didn't George just repeat most of what ZH has been saying for a year now ?
- Euro is fucked, wallpaper is getting old hat
- Breakaways will be driven by political manouvering and old alliances made on threats (Russia) will have zero impact in the ZIRP world
- Japan is fucked. Wanatabe will be doing tricks by 2030.
- Savings are being killed by non-core inflation and stagnant wages. World is running out of runway to get the whole thing moving again.
Best part of fight club/financial markets: doesn't matter how big you are on paper, Getting punched in the face is still, getting punched in the face.
And here is the "tell" on how they plan to do it!
Future crises will be political in origin. Indeed, this is already apparent, because the EU has become so inward-looking that it cannot adequately respond to external threats, be they in Syria or Ukraine. But the outlook is far from hopeless; the revival of a threat from Russia may reverse the prevailing trend toward European disintegration.
Enter the Russian Bogey man! Talk about transparent.
I think he is saying that the politicalization of human existence (something he had a part in) has necessarily turned every problem into a political issue. Today, we consult the government for what we wear, eat, buy, build, tax, donate, drink, smoke, trade, travel and educate. There is no sphere that does not have federal oversight or mandates...making every problem a political one.
He lives in a box with the like minded that are out of touch, drinking cocktails, getting drunk, patting each other on the back and deluding themselves from a lofty perch
George Soros -- all problems are solved by a one world governement. The UN is not powerful enough because there is dissent.
Not said but implied -- this one world gov needs the power to enforce their will on everyone else, ie crush dissent.
Well, I nominate the NSA for that job. Just give them a 100 million man army and general alexander can be the second alexander the great.
I hope there is a hell and G. Soros will be screaming in pain for all eternity.
There is no uHaul behind his hearse. Count on it.
Yes, that would totally make sense for people who depend 100% on the auspices of TPTB to buy Bitcoin wouldn't it?
I said it knowing the trolling would bring you out.
At Soros' age, I've heard he can't be LONG anything.
Agreed, that ole fvker wont even buy green bananas
CORRECTION:
You mean Obama's ASS
That's funny. I'm using that.
It's shit propoganda like this (O 5th best prez ever) that makes me realize we're not much different than NK.
Obama is the 5TH best US president.
There have been 43 presidents
5 are tied for 1st
10 are tied for 2ND
15 are tied for 3RD
12 are tied for 4TH
and Obama is 5TH.
He must be a low information ZH'er since it went over his head.
First is the worst, second's the best, third's the one with the hairy chest.
Reading the whole paragraph won't actually take very long.
Of course, that poll was taken in Compton and DC.......
KLINK OBAMA RATED 5TH BEST PRESIDENT.............By the Communist Party and Texas A&M, fixed it.
Good one. I think O$ama has been dealt a bad hand, and then played even worse.
Well, you have voted for him, but the rest of the world suffers.
Soros the old fart is married to a woman 62 years younger than him. He is 89 and she is 27!!! Fuking vampire
Well, one thing I won't hold against that old codger is going for the younger snatch
At his age it looks like an old dried up cow pie you see on the wagon trail,but at 27 still resembles a fresh peach.
That might have been one of the most incongruent and nonsensical pieces of written work I have ever read, besides it being chocked full of lies.
And I'm pretty sure Soros was pooping himself as he wrote it. How old is that fucker?
If there was ever a person who could use a nice myocardial infarction, it's Georgie.
has soros moved into that secure pent house in vagas? who runs his empire? does everyone change into germ free clothing with white gloves before an audience with the mogol? perhaps his handlers keep his meds titrated well.
That might have been one of the most incongruent and nonsensical pieces of written work I have ever read, besides it being chocked full of lies.
Exactly. This quote stood out quite a bit:
As a result, the crisis has transformed the EU from the “fantastic object” that inspired enthusiasm into something radically different. What was meant to be a voluntary association of equal states that sacrificed part of their sovereignty for the common good – the embodiment of the principles of an open society – has now been transformed by the euro crisis into a relationship between creditor and debtor countries that is neither voluntary nor equal. Indeed, the euro could destroy the EU altogether.
Not to state the obvious here george, but how has this worked every single time it's been tried? More importantly, why does it work out this way?
Soros is channeling Rob Ford in that pic.
http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/19b7y9i9vswelgif/original.gif
Either way, he's powered by Satan without a doubt which probably means we'll be cursed with the spectre of his existence for a number of years.
Decoded:
QE-good;
Tea Party-BAD!!
So now this undead creature is a stand-up comic...
He looks like Barney Frank just laid the wood to him.LOL.You would think with Billions he could afford a decent haircut.
Fuck you Soros. Hopefully Putin arrests your sorry ass and throws you in a cell with a couple big sex starved guys named Bubba.
Close, his name would be Boris.
Queue Boris Alotovcrap issuing an official denial. I don't know what the "nickname" is for Russian "whitenecks" who are in prison.
Apparently Boris is tired of Thai "girls".
Who knows where that could lead.
Lady Boyris?
Disclaimer - I'm a big fan of BA. I await his arrival and delivery of rebuttal in a fashion that only Boris can.
If that's a new picture He don't look very good!
He's got a crazy look about him. Excuse me, an ECCENTRIC look. Rich people are never crazy.
That is not George soros. It is Professor Irwin Corey.
http://www.irwincorey.org/
That's just his "O" face!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzIN3EgBIHg
As in, "O no, I trusted a fart again and shouldn't have."?
Since then, he bathed in the blood of a group of MoveOn activists, and looks 20 years younger.
Making him look 110.
Soros must have some bridges to sell. They need to wheel out Buffet to talk about unicorns and magic if they want some moral boosts. They better do it before no one can afford cable.
I'd love to seem them all join the club.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/ariel-sharons-condition-deteriorates/
Careful Klink, there's some prophesy of the end times if Ariel finally kicks off.
Ah fuck it, bring on pissed off Jesus already.
When he kicks off, I'm hoping he kicks off the death train of all those scumbags who are actually running the world wide oppression. You know, those Build-a-burger types. Throw in the owners of the Carlyle group, Trilateral commision, CFR, etc.
As long as they get unloaded with pitchforks.
They better hope there is no hell.
So he starts by saying things are great and then immediately switches to things are iffy at best.
He looks like the Sith Lord.
Yep, just put him a black hooded robe! I'm actually sure there's one hanging in his closet.
Come to think of it he could be Lo Pan and is looking for a green eyed girl.
"may the wings of liberty never lose a feather"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR7q-qf3VSQ
Isn't there a grave waiting for you George.
That, and a particular Circle of Hell.
Soros is a greedy man who loves to kill poor people while blaming the political party he never gives money to. Why did he not mention the success of ObamaCare?
So...buy Herbalife?
Got it.
Now i got his message! Euro was a bitcoin even before there was the bitcoin (or a bit con).
this fucking fat old trouble maker Soros needs a couple of bullets
As long as they're made of silver.
He's not worthy of silver. Lead is fine.
Make sure they are silver ones.
worthless tripe
Close, missed it by one letter!!
Disintegrate.
He's an old commie
Commies are still giving him a boner. Best place for oligarchs to thrive is communism.
Interesting that he knows that government interventon in the Chinese economy has long term contradicditons but tolerates it in the short term because it fosters global economic stability.Same attitude toward the US,where the party of structural change,the tea party is maligned and the maintainers of the status quo are supported.This lines his pockets.Claims to be the supporter of open societies but by that he means an open pocketbook (QE and abenomics), that benefits his own interests.
I'd call him an assmaggot but that would not be fair to assmaggots.
Suck my salty nuts you POS.
I've heard he doesn't like the little ones! Hahaha
Sorry couldn't resist SF.
EDIT: That's a line grab from the movie Jarhead.
No problem KK.
I enjoy your humor. Happy New Year.
Same here SF. Happy new year too!
Sydney greets 2014 with an 11-minute extravagant display of Illuminati Masonic Symbolism fireworks from the iconic opera house and harbour bridge.
Video:
http://homment.com/illuminati-1
Seriously. WTF was that shit?
I caught the eye for a bit on TV, and just wondered how in hell these creeps even justify that shit anymore.
I guess they just say "we're the Illuminati, fucking suck me if you don't like it" nowadays.
I wish Soros would do a live Q&A session. I'd like to ask him what Obomba's grundle tastes like.
Hahaha, had to look it up. And I think you may have it backwards. I think it's Obama who's been gobbling Soros' grundle.
Grundle - The prime piece of real estate located conveniently between Scrotumberg and Anusville.
taint funny
According to our POTUS, taint bad.
SCROTUS?
And yet another Roscoe in butt pic
These hideous Kosher Bolsheviks look like they are related
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/madeleine-albright-west-point-award-98454.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/08/us-aprenergy-soros-idUSTRE7276DX20110308
Buffey is working on getting the gov't to put in the transportation infrastructure up the gut of the country from Mexico. It will produce ???? number of jobs and lift GDP by a zillion! Buffey no longer risks investment; he uses his street cred via gov't pawns to get what he wants.
And by GDP, you mean HIS Gross Douchebag Profits?
the person who cooks for soros is the most powerful person in finance.
What type of impartiality does Mr Soros expect to project when he is openly financing political campaigns in the US?
Love that picture of Soros, can I have a large version please?
Eye's agog, hair all askew, a somewhat bewildered facial expression - that's the Euro experiment right there.
a) go to google
b) click 'images'
c) drag thumbnail into search bar
bam
Dude. Cool shit. I did not know that.
Jomama told you!
can someone explain to me why scum sucking demonspawn like this get to walk the earth until their 90s and good people who actually better the world always die young?
God doesn't want them in Heaven and Satan hates competition?
I was going with cheap organs from Chinese "donors" but yours is cool too.
Along with transfusions of baby's blood.
The forum's naivety never ceases to amaze me. I had always found Soros to be informative and well intentioned. His comments on US markets were spot on from the bottom in 2009, although his dire predictions for Europe unless they go the Eurobond route panned out.
He is really a breath of fresh air compared to the shills like Druckermiller, all those Pete Peterson and David Koch clones like David Stockman: selfish and greedy austerity hawks who like Michael Hudson said would rather annul 90% of human beings than forgive their debts.
Compare Soros to his formers partner Jimmy Rodgers? Rodgers ran away to Singapore and never ever gave a cent to anyone! Soros has spend billions to make the world a better place.
Thanks for the chuckle.
LOL SS,
we need an up Arrow, and a Down Arrow like we have but for posts like yours we need a ROFLMAO option.
well intentioned? oh wait, we need a TURBO SARCASM vote option too.
soros has spent billions supporting the left wing agenda of the folks that have brought you the CFL, more expensive gas, and higher taxes.
if your post was serious. you're simply misinformed at the worst about georgie, or just retarded.
Soros is Dr evil.
"this should lead to a revival of the two-party system" - I laughed and laughed and laughed.
Three pieces of s**t here: Soros, the Syrian so-called civil war and man-made global warming.
leave it to george to let us know what the agenda is.
eurobonds are necessary
russia must be the new old bogeyman to rally the eurozone and help the people ignore poverty.
the usa(the dollar) must lead the world. the crazies will be expelled and a new plan implemented because.......
the real threat is china. china can do what it wants because they are the fiat kings. they can create and disappear money at will because .gov is the economy and their currency is used in a quasihitler model where debt is registered on the books but the books don't matter because the money is owed to .gov, itself. meanwhile people get paid and stuff(whether they need it or not) gets built and china replaces the fiat with real stuff. they out brillianted the brilliant bernanke. it may have helped that the chinese invented fiat.
george says that unless china joins the game at hand instead of the game they want played(go beats checkers) there will be war.
thanks for the warning.
Washington said something about foreign influence.
I believe he was talking about assholes like this.
Similar bullshit one finds in Economist. I wonder why people read and spend money and time for such shit.
What is the agenda of Project Syndicate, btw?
What's the purpose of this Soros spin? Is he trying to put up a straw man position to draw attention away from the reality of the situation?
Ben's small taper means: bubble now can sustainable by itself, now I step side a little bit so human greed/animal spirit can do part of my job.
If Germany does not want to PAY to bail out the Eurozone, exactly how is the crisis "political"? Seems to me the issue is whether the weak sisters in the Eurozone can pull themselves up by their own bootstraps, instead of continuously asking for a hand from Germany.
It takes courage for a libertarian blogsite; and I don't mean it in a derogatory sense; to post a position of chief proponent of a "rational new world order"; unlike the Neocon one that reigns today.
Soros has been very prescient in analysing Euro-pains and Euro-future as he is very much of European culture.
His analysis of US economic recovery will raise eyebrows in ZH, as it negates the fundamental mantra defended here : QE is the source of this financial dystopia which he does not support; on the contrary. His optimism on shale plays has the same flavour.
So hats off TDs for presenting his case here fairly, for all to assess.
Even tho' its contrived status quo type spin to most of you libertarians.
As a European I listen to this guy on where the Euro ship heads. And you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see China now positioning to be top Nation in Asia; as can be seen by its presence in Pakistan as in Africa :
Exclusive: China commits $6.5 billion for Pakistani nuclear project | Reuters
Spot on. Soros raised social-democratic politicians in Central Europe via paying them jobs at his open society think tanks. These politicians voted for bail-ins and ESM transfers and participation after 2008 happened and banks went bankrupt. Every sane person knows that this man is part of the robbing elite.
And after my readings during the holidays I am very cautious about what I find here on ZH posted by TD. The time will tell.
How he was not hanged from a tree by his neck for all of the people - HIS OWN PEOPLE!! - that he helped the Nazis to murder, is some serious Twilight Zone shit.
Seriously, how the fuck was he not arrested, tried, convicted, and executed for his war crimes??!!
You mean the total 280K that died primarily due to typhus and later direct allied bombing, malnutrition and disease. Only confinement with intent for mass deportation was deliberate.
Thinking back to when Soros attacked the pound sterling I have changed my view recently.Although a highly leveraged position,and no doubt seen as predatory by the UK,sharks always attack the weak and bleeding.This was pure capitalism and price discovery,market working in a dynamic fashion to expoit opportunity.Compare this event to the FED buying up all this MBS crap in America,and then charging all of us for "saving the economy",by keeping interest rates ultra low discouraging saving (for kids college?) and encouraging debt-fueled spending.All Soros did was the little kid saying "the Emperor is naked!".A very gutsy move,and his gamble paid off.The UK spent a week trying to prop up the currency and then ended up devalueing after all.Now I see why they don't want a gold-linked currency.
It's pretty sad.
So I guess according to Soros no government should have even the possibility of having to default on its debts... at least not explicitly. What a crock.
"The euro’s design – which was modeled on the Deutsche Mark – has a fatal flaw. Creating a common central bank without a common treasury means that government debts are denominated in a currency that no single member country controls, making them subject to the risk of default."
Maybe all debt should be that way, public AND private. We're ALL winners. NO ONE loses... EVER!
Participation trophies for everyone!!!!
Well, can't say I like Soros; or any of the like. But considering ZH's comment section has become the home of the ignorant redneck, taking a contrarian view of what they say there will always pay dividends.
Please die George.
Oh yes, those Tea Party radicals have moved the country to the right and the Democrats are just so moderate and reasonable with their government solutions to everything. You've got to be kidding me.
I'm ashamed to share a heritage with Soros knowing that Soros is a Hungarian, and that he helped round up the Jews.
how
is
this
vampyre
still
alive.
jesus
god
buddha
allah
anyone
please
rid
us
of
this
rothschild
curse.
God helps those who help themselves.
Die and take Hillary with you.
George Soros is guilty of crimes against humanity, and will be tried for them.
USA biggest threat to world peace. poll. http://rt.com/news/us-biggest-threat-peace-079/
I think being married to that young chick has scrambled his brains. Wasn't he victimized by the Nazi's before escaping? He certainly has profited from that experience Let's pretend again just like they did in the Weimar Republic that everything is honky dory. My conclusion: fuck you rotten lying piece of shit.
"All of the looming problems for the global economy are political in character."
Stoppped reading there.