Goldman Leading Indicator Confirms 2013 Ended With Global Economy In 'Slowdown' Phase

Tyler Durden's picture

After multiple months of positive acceleration, Goldman expect the Global Leading Indicator to continue to stabilize around current levels in the coming months. The infamous Swirlogram shows that the last 3 months have seen the indicator in "slowdown" mode - which Goldman optimistically notes is on the border of 'expansion' also...and while they see no clear evidence of further acceleration, they see overall level of growth at solid levels.



Five of the ten underlying components improved in December. On the positive side, Global New Orders less Inventories (NOIN) continued to improve, again making a new post-2011 high. The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index® recovered last month’s losses and the Japanese Inventory/Sales ratio also improved again. The Baltic Dry Index jumped higher and the Consumer Confidence aggregate reversed course after two months of declines.


On the negative side, the AUD & CAD weakened on the month. The Global PMI aggregate was softer while Korean exports continued to fall, and the Belgian and Netherlands Manufacturing Survey was lower from last month but remains close to its two-year high. Finally, US Initial Jobless Claims rose again from last month’s drop, likely also impacted by heightened volatility around the holiday season.


Source: Goldman Sachs

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A Lunatic's picture

Goldman Sachs = Grimm's Fairy Tales

Flying Aardvark's picture

More like Tales from the Crypt.

Musashi Miyamoto's picture

The Swirlogram is always my favorite chart

LeisureSmith's picture

It's a hand pointing out the future direction of the helpful.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's a hand trying to show its boss it is being active and shouldn't be fired.

Leveraged Algorithm's picture

Reminds me of my shitter with a FED Chairman in it.....

LongBalls's picture

Bullish! This means my Twitter shares to the moon!!

Peter Pan's picture

There will be no total collapse in 2014, just a continuing slide so that the sheeple can get more and more comfortable with less and less as they have for the last 5 years.

As for predictions....they are worth a dime a dozen and any successful prediction must be set off against the other ten that were total misses.

As one of my friends says, "if you predict anything long enough it's bound to happen."

Spungo's picture

So the market is going clockwise. Is this helpful somehow?

disabledvet's picture

not that i can't be in any more trouble with "the man" than I already am but "let's go by the President's Standard on this one" shall we: the trade deficit was seen as "problem number one"'s the USA with the biggest energy boom in its history...and the trade deficit has exploded even higher. " now have an uber dollar to go with that boom as well." with spreads at 300 basis points on treasuries "talk about putting capital in the driver seat." NO SEIGNIORAGE. (even by today's standards this is quite astounding.) the existence of this spread in conjunction with a "generalized boom in production without much inflation" makes the 19th Century "robber baron" variant seem quaint. hmmm. "gift from Queen Victoria" indeed. She'd be impressed by the Navy but would want to know "what all those other ships with other flags were still doing out there. Aren't you suppose to blow them up or something?"

MFLTucson's picture

As they sold people on equities that are in nosebleed territory, the fraud center of Wall Street tells us now that things are slowing down?  No shit Blankfien .

TaperProof's picture

I didn't see that one coming.     Oh wait I did.

Short 2014's picture

I think my nickname says it all.

dunce's picture

I am sure Goldman has accurate and reliable economic data, and that they find a a way to front run its release.

Sufiy's picture

Toby Connor: Another Bubble Looking for a Pin

Toby Connor provides a very interesting set of charts and market observations. Nothing grows up to the sky and he reminds us that every parabolic move ends in correction. This Friday extremely volatile FOREX moves are the first sign of repositioning by the major players. 10 Year Yield has reached 3.0%, mortgage rates are already going higher and mortgage applications are collapsing - markets can not be sustained by only rising Twitter and other social media. Janet Yellen will be tested very early in her rein and idea that QE can be actually extended is not so crazy any more.