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Guest Post: Why 2014 Doesn’t Have To Be 1914

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Mira Rapp-Hooper via The Diplomat,

In a recent Brookings Institution essay entitled “The Rhyme of History: Lessons of the Great War,” historian Margaret Macmillan argues that there are strong and haunting parallels between today’s geopolitical landscape and Europe of 1914. Pivoting off the well-know Mark Twain adage that history does not repeat itself, but does rhyme, Macmillan suggests that the one-hundredth anniversary of World War I encourages us to reflect on the “valuable warnings” of the past. The actual and potential conflicts in the year ahead are many, and some of the same structural forces that lead to the Great War a century ago will be prevalent in 2014.

Macmillan is an eminent historian (her book, Paris 1919 is a must-read), but analogies between 1914 Europe and the world today should not be drawn hastily. World War I continues to preoccupy scholars and pundits alike, in part because it was so destructive, and in part because there is still no consensus on why exactly it occurred. With the centennial of the conflict approaching, we can expect to see 1914 references made a great deal — particularly with respect to the power transition that is currently in progress in the Pacific —  but we should remain duly skeptical of this tempting parallel. Many of the conditions that were present in antebellum Europe do indeed prevail today.  Whether these forces actually raise the risk of war is far from established, however, and the expectation that they do may itself increase the chance of conflict.

In her Brookings essay, Macmillan identifies several conditions that were present in Europe before the Great War that, she argues, also raise the risk of conflict today.  The first of these conditions is globalization and its unintended consequences. In both 1914 and at present, there existed the common assumption that the world was becoming too interconnected to resort to war — conflict would be prohibitively costly. But, Macmillan points out, a hundred years ago as now, those who preached interdependence often ignored the fact that globalization can lead to job loss, foster intense localism and nativism, and provide a breeding ground for radical ideologies and movements (including those that employ terrorism). Globalization, Macmillan warns us, can also heighten interstate rivalries.

Related to this is a second trend — rising nationalism and sectarianism. Once trapped in interstate rivalries, leaders may seize upon nationalism and bitter historical enmity to appeal to their publics. In 1914, the predominant antagonisms were the Anglo-German and Russo-German rivalries; today they include Sino-American and Sino-Japanese competition.  Third, Macmillan reminds us that tightly-knit defensive alliances may encourage conflict or cause it to spread. In 1914, Germany saw itself as inextricably bound to Austria, as France did to Russia. Today, she warns, the United States could easily be drawn into war in either the Middle East or East Asia by its alliance ties.

Finally, Macmillan warns that “World Policemen” may be forced into retirement, leaving a vacuum of instability and uncertainty. By the early 20th century, the British clearly could not sustain the demands and costs of their empire. Likewise, Macmillan avers, the United States will not be able to preserve hegemony indefinitely. Even if it its reach is primarily confined to Asia, the most obvious challenge to U.S. influence will come from a rising China, and crises or conflicts may break out unless the dominant powers can establish a stable international order.

Macmillan is hardly the first to point to these conditions as potential precursors to conflict. With respect to China’s rise, analysts have argued frequently that Washington and Beijing’s national security interests put the two countries on a collision course. Some have gone so far as to insist that this clash is inevitable But in her comparison of the international conditions that preceded the Great War and those that prevail today, Macmillan fails to address one truly crucial question: Why did the forces of globalization, nationalism, interlocking alliances, and power transition combine to produce war in 1914 specifically?

The prevailing patterns that Macmillan identifies as historical rhymes may all be thought of as permissive conditions to conflict: these forces may have helped to pave the way to the Great War’s onset, but none alone was the immediate cause of war in 1914.  Moreover, these forces were almost certainly present in Europe prior to that fateful year. Why, then, did they not combine to produce a major war when Austria annexed Bosnia in 1908? Why did they not stoke the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 and produce global conflagration then? If we are to accept that any specific set of conditions caused the First World War in 1914, we must also be able to explain why those forces did not produce war earlier or later, or why conflict could not have been avoided altogether despite their prevalence.

Indeed, in the copious literature on World War I, scholars have attempted to dissect these important counterfactuals. Some argue that the structural conditions that Macmillan identifies really did make a European conflict inevitable — interlocking alliances, the Anglo-German power transition, nationalism, and other factors meant that war would have occurred in 1915 or 1916 if it did not in 1914. But other analysts insist that the Great War was the immediate result of assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand. If he had not been killed in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914 — or if he had been shot and lived — the great powers might have avoided war, not just in that year, but in perpetuity. If an idiosyncratic event like the Archduke’s assassination is the key to explaining the war, however, it is not clear how much credence we should give to other underlying factors. Macmillan’s background conditions for conflict may be insufficient to bring about a war, and indeed, may not even be necessary. And if this is true, then the parallels that can be drawn between the onset of the First World War and geopolitics today may be impoverished at best.

So is this a simple warning that decision makers should approach historical analogies with caution? It is that, but also more. Among the many causes of the First World War that international relations scholars have identified was the widespread belief in European capitals that a great power conflict was highly likely. Combined with prevailing military technologies and strategies of the time, this assumption led statesmen to think that they would be advantaged if they struck first, rather than waiting for an adversary attack that was sure to come in due course.  By overemphasizing historical parallels, we risk convincing ourselves that conflict is imminent, when in fact it remains eminently avoidable. If we were to combine Macmillan’s warnings about economic interdependence, nationalism, alliances, and power transitions, for example, it would be tempting to flag the next fracas over the Senkakus/Diaoyus, where all of these forces are clearly present, as the new Sarajevo. Combined with great power military strategies that may be escalatory, conflict anticipation via analogy could produce disastrous results indeed.

With the one-hundredth anniversary of the First World War fast upon us, and a power transition manifestly under way, Macmillan’s essay will certainly not be the last analysis to draw connections between 1914 and present-day geopolitics. Indeed, there is surely value in paying heed to the similarities and differences between the two eras. By listening anxiously for historical rhymes that portend major conflict, however, we risk deafness to the multitude of factors that make the challenges of the present day unique, and soluble far short of war. A rhyme, after all, is a correspondence of sound, but not of meaning.

Here’s to wishing the world a 2014 that is considerably more peaceful than the centennial it will mark.

 

 

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Thu, 01/02/2014 - 20:44 | 4294985 Iocosus
Iocosus's picture

Unlimited printing, unlimited carnage. End the Fed.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 20:46 | 4294994 Jannn
Jannn's picture

Sun Zhaoxue: US Intends To Suppress Gold To Ensure Dollar’s Dominance

 

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/sun-zhaoxue-us-intends-to-suppress-gold-to-e...

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 20:44 | 4294996 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

+1

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:36 | 4295154 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Not sure if anyone noticed but there's already damned near a World War going on already.  It's just happening by proxy so that things don't get "messy" in any of the coutries with significant wealth and infrastructure (which are the ones waging the war in the first place).

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:13 | 4295333 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

War is  Peace,... get with the program, we have been in a permanent state of war, ... since 1776, ... its called American Hegemony, aka "USA manifest destiny". Any other viewpoint would be illogical.

Only women and children who sit at home eating chocolate in heated rooms believe the paradigm that the USA is a nation of 'good'.

"WAR IS A RACKET" - smedly butler, most decorated US Marine in history

War in the USA has always been BUSINESS, the business of killing.

Back in the 1920's 'racket' used to mean ones business, ... "What is your racket"?

Just like today BTC is a 'racket'.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 14:52 | 4297222 screw face
screw face's picture

Moar bullcrap please........see #FUKU

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:52 | 4295200 JohnnyBlaze
JohnnyBlaze's picture

Can someone please explain this to me.

If the US/China is massivley supressing gold price how is there still supply?  Logic tells me if the price was manipulated downward to the extent people claim we would see a shortage.  Supply and demand.  Same goes with silver.  If silver is being supressed by JPM at such a massive rate why the fuck is there still supply.

Is there a logical answer to this.

 

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:00 | 4295226 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

Supply of paper gold. Not real gold.
All we do here on ZH is posting silly and not particularly serious comments while passing time waiting for those paper gold holders to come to collect their gold.
Then, things will get serious.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:27 | 4295298 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Things will get VERY serious.

FIFY

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:04 | 4295236 spinone
spinone's picture

If there's so much supply, why is it taking Germany 7 years to get their gold back?

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:09 | 4295551 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

1776

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:24 | 4295432 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

I can explain but the ZH will ban anyone who tells the truth. Truthiness is not allowed on this forum. Fact.

OK here it goes.

We're in DEFLATION and all that can be sold other than what is NEEDED will be sold, you cannot eat, fuck,or sleep in gold.

People need food & oil they will go UP, and that what is NOT needed will go down. It's called DEFLATION. We're in a world depression that started in 2008, and will last for many years, ...

The real question is why this fucking paradigm that "THE FED CONTROL THE WORLD, and GOLD?", I think its because ZH narrative going back to RON PAUL is that the FED is evil, ... yeh sure but so are lies and misinformation. The FED controls the world is the narrative that advertisers see fit in this forum for FEAR is what drives the sale of ETF-GOLD and worthless ilk, aka BTC.

Fear of the FED is 100% BULLSHIT.

Fed never did control shit, other than over the counter money rate between banks. But RP/ZH narrative is that the FED is omnipotent, ... I call it a bullshit narrative.

Gold is being sold in the west to eat, and the asians are snapping it up, but this is not news, as they have always been buyers.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:10 | 4295557 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Kevin?

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:20 | 4295586 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

If one can't eat, fuck or sleep in gold, would you argue that one can eat, fuck or sleep in paper (payed as gold) better? There's one potential thing that one will be able to use "paper gold" for once the holders realise that it's leveraged 90:1, but I'm afraid that it's a bit rough and not absorbent enough. ;-)

Also, why doesn't US simply sell all gold from Fort Knox now, while it still has some value, instead of covering budget deficits by printing (diluting) dollar?

BTW, you really think that being able to print trillions of World reserve currency out of thin air equates to "no control"?

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:26 | 4295601 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Nice try dude.  But the fact is, and can be shown quite easily, that physical gold investment in the West is less than 0.01% of all investments.  It's not even "owned" in the West, let alone your asinine claim that it is sold in the West to eat.

Your ignorance about the level of physical gold investment as a function of all investments as proof that price is falling is really really infantile.

The FED directly controls the futures price of GOLD.  Volcker is on record saying such, found here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-11/what-confidential-1974-memo-paul-volcker-reveals-about-americas-true-views-gold-rese

I actually googled the phrase and the ZH article came up second (Kudos to ZH).

So learn a bit first, so you don't sound so dumb.  Open market interventions and printing money out of thin air obviously dilute existing dollars in supply, which is inflationary, which is gold friendly.  This is a very basic monetary law that the FED is hell bent on trying to fool the masses into believing otherwise by directly and unlawfully intervening and dropping the futures price of gold.  They've managed to fool you, but many here aren't buying the bullshit.

The FED is engaged in white collar criminality every hour of every day, a crime that the average person would pay dearly for if done just once a year, yet nothing is done to the FED and the thousands and thousands of market manipulations done annually.

Gotta love this free market thing, hey?

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 04:26 | 4295873 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Truthiness is not allowed on this forum. Fact."

check your facts better:

first, check what kind of comments really ban you from this forum, and why. 

then, check what the completely unrelated definition of thruthiness is, and why this makes your comment ridiculous

in short: truth does not ban you from here. certain kinds of thruthiness, put in a specific way, will. and you know what? I prefer truth

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 09:24 | 4296139 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

It is a kind of black market in reverse.

The 'official' gold market is the black market. They don't have any gold, they just have loads of duplicate receipts saying the gold is being held in store for them, and they own it as long as they don't ask to see it or take it away. I think it is being reported that there are 90 'ownership' receipts for every single ounce of actual gold. JPM and the other crooks are trying to slowly deflate that giant bubble, and stupidly think they can suppress the price of this 'paper' gold down to a level where 89 of these 'owners' will sell their piece of paper just to get out of a dying trade. But they can't really drop the gold spot price below what it costs the gold mining companies to dig up the gold and process it.

Which is where they are now.

Unfortunately, that is only part of the story.

The Federal Reserve are also desperate that physical gold does not become a viable alternative to the dollar -as the de-facto world currency. If that happens, the US Empire is over, in a millisecond. So they do not want a rising price for gold. Up til now, worldwide oil has been traded using dollars. Gadhaffi tried to start selling it for gold, and look what happened to him (and it was for no other reason). Iran and China strted to do the same thing, and surprise, surprise, up came the old chestnut about Iran's 'imminent' nuclear capability. When the Russians laughed in Obammy's face, they then tried the Syrian / Iran provocation. That failed with Kerry's incompetence. So at the moment, all the Wall St / Fed. axis can do is squash the price of gold and keep it to volatile for consideration as a currency.

For some reason, they don't care what the gold markets are doing in China and India, or that smart people in the West will buy physical gold whatever the fake price. The potential losses to the Wall St Central Banking system must be so collossal that they don't care how much physical buyers profit. -For they assume they can hold the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Not a chance, they printed too many dollars for 40 years.

One phone conversation between Moscow and Beijing would do it. Pray we have our own national banking collapse before then, and we can start afresh on our terms.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 09:46 | 4296207 JohnnyBlaze
JohnnyBlaze's picture

Is the price "fake" if I can go down to APMEX and buy it at that price?  Hell they are even throwing in free shipping.

Also with all the BS and manipulation how do we know what the real mining costs are?  Can we trust those numbers?

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:00 | 4295530 The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

Just think how many time the word Gold appears somewhere in the news/press/media on any given day. for something that has no value it sure gets a lot of exposure.. I mean Asparagus is important, but you don't read about it in the news every day

it's like a Hot woman on the dance floor, everybody is paying attention, to what she is doing...

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:08 | 4295061 VD
VD's picture

End the Fed, the ECB, the BoE, et al.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:32 | 4295141 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

2014 is actually closer to 1929 using 4th Turning Saeculum analysis.  About 85 years ago.  About the average age of a human.  Oh,..why do we forget?  Its coming...bitchez !!!!  THIS IS THE YEAR !

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:06 | 4295242 spinone
spinone's picture

In the next few years, if the 4th turning business has any predictive value.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:28 | 4295303 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Prediction, in a totally rigged market, is only possible for those on the inside.

It should really be called PLANNING.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:36 | 4295327 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

All the assholes going back to Socrates thought they had it planned,

Then along comes the black-swan,

The real problem is not planning,but  managing the crisis,

Probably most telling in USA today is everytime their is an incident like BOSTON-BOMB, ... its all "Stay in your home", all the while the cops are running around kicking in doors.

***

The market may be rigged, but in the entire scope of things, that don't mean shit. Wealth is fluid, and 'good' will always run away, and leave the majority with 'bad'.

Now before your very eyes "GOLD" is fleeing the west for CHINA, ...  Next step will be be for china to purchase the worlds strategic petroleum reserves, ... Then it will be really interesting to see 'who is in control'.

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:34 | 4295434 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

Actually, It was Plato that had a passion for planning. Sokrates tried to explain that one can't, because the reality is endless chain of intricate feedback loops and that knowledge is always finite (he exclaimed: "All I know is that I know nothing"). That didn't end well for him. He was accused of "corrupting youths" with his ideas and forced to consciously drink a glass of poison.
The rest - well, as exclaimed by many talking heads on MSM, perception is reality. This this is the signature of time we live in.
Of course, sooner or later we will come to realization that perception is perception, reality is reality and the delta between the two is called delusion.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:45 | 4295499 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

I was referring to the 'time of socrates', as in Greek philosophical government, why do the troll bot's trigger on Socrates and then paste stuff from Plato?

***

The notion of 'planned coordinated' government goes back to the TIME of Socrates and/or Plato, but they have never been able to avoid the black-swan, or the Mongels, or invaders, or for that matter, once they dilute their currency to ZERO, the bread quits coming to the capitol steps.

Good government planners, ... in the end always lose their game.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:59 | 4295647 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

Actually, planned society appeared minimum 5000 years before Helenic period.

Mongols didn't come to Europe until 1000 years after Helenic period.

Greeks dealt with invaders pretty well. They won the Battle of Marathon against Persians. That one had more influence on how we live today than all wars after (including WWII). In fact, they pretty much destroyed themself in endless and pointles internal wars, mostly between Athens and Sparta city states. That weakened them to the point when they become easy pray to surging Roman Empire.

They never diluted their currency (Roman Empire did on two occasions, but that was much later).

No government (or anyone, on that matter) would be able avoid black swan by it's definition. One can not avoid unknowable. 

Do you get your facts from Narnia or just make the shit up as you go? ;-)

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 20:48 | 4294999 max2205
max2205's picture

And what difference does it make.....

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:29 | 4295129 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

"Difference?"

...Singlehandedly, Obama nearly started WW3 on his own just a little while back with the US Fleet staring at the shores of Syria.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 20:51 | 4295006 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

I cannot imagine any analogy so far off.

2014 is 1938 PURE and SIMPLE, 2008 was 1932

USA is NAZI Germany, The masses will start to flee between now and 2016, and the world will not take them.

The rich left the USA long time ago. Now only the poor remain.

***

This story is just to focus on the FED, which is quite meaningless in itself, you should focus on the new currency, and the IMF, and where they're taking us, how we got here is a done deal.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 20:55 | 4295024 Iocosus
Iocosus's picture

Those Chinese ghost cities.....there's definitely a better reason behind those than the illusion of perpetual growth meme.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:17 | 4295095 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Maybe... but NAZI Germany certainly didn't have 400 million privately-owned firearms floating around in the hands of a relatively informed, relatively broke, and relatively pissed off population.

 

Get your popcorn ready.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:49 | 4295193 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

If by popcorn you mean bodybags, then yeah........

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:31 | 4295317 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Popcorn in the coming post 2014 USA will mean 'toasted corpse'

Ever seen what an Israeli/USA phosphorus missile/drone does to children? Make them look just like popcorn, without the butter.

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:57 | 4295373 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

The U.S. military (and particularly the actual trigger pullers and fighting troops) is absolutely NOT representative of the general population though- regionally, culturally, and ethnically it is very lopsided. When push comes to shove, it will matter.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:04 | 4295398 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

This is WHY you need to study the BONUS BOYS, and SMEDLY BUTLER,

During WWI men were promised a bonus to enlist, they didn't get the money, they marched on WASH-DC, and they were killed in mass, by soldiers.

The WWI vets were the most highly decorated men of their day, and they were murdered by the young MIL,

If you think for a moment that the YOUNG MIL of today, will fail to kill on order, then you fail to understand USA history,

If told to KILL the US citizen, just like KENT-STATE the issue is not will the soldiers kill civilians the issue is can you stop them from shooting once everyone is dead?

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:23 | 4295439 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Get a grip. The Bonus March was simply a civil protest that got broken up... not a life-or-death, winner take all, SHTF event with the fate of the nation at stake. 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:50 | 4295508 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Yes, I know, Eisenhower and MacArthur made their bones in those days against the Bonus Army. It's why they got the jobs they did in WWII. However, the Bonus Army also wasn't particularly well armed or it would have been a different outcome. Actually the bonuses were not awarded at enlistment at all but several years after the war, but not redemmable for a couple of decades.  The dispute was over how long they should wait as the Depression was not ending and they wanted the money.

Would the current military go after the population if told? Yes some undoubtedly would, in some places- particularly in large cities because such areas produce few soldiers and fewer actual fighting troops. The small town  and rural areas that produce the soldiers in large numbers will have considerably less to worry about.

Kent State? Hippy urban college kids getting shot by decidedly non hippy non urban National Guard types, which is in line with my point.  The US population is far from homogenous and so is the military today. The areas that produce the soldiers have less to fear from their own than the large urban areas do. They don't see most dwellers in the U.S. cities as "us", they're most definitely a "them".

This is the last link I have handy, I'm sure there is a more recent DoD report but if you really drill down into who actually makes up US land forces it's an eye opener.

http://prhome.defense.gov/portals/52/Documents/POPREP/poprep2010/summary/summary.html

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:01 | 4295543 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Is this even up for debate?

There was a POLL taken just a few years ago with all new recruits, "If called upon to shoot USA citizens, would you do so?", the Majority said yes, those that said no were rejected.

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:11 | 4295566 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

They forgot the second half of that question. 

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:16 | 4295567 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

In America today people with power are no longer accountable. This means citizens have become subjects, an indication of social collapse.

This isn't YOUR AMERICA anymore, ... Long ago american cops and soldiers didn't rape and beat little white girls in USA streets and didn't knock the teeth out of grandma.

Anybody that defends TODAYS US Cop's or Military is an asshole.

From the earliest age, boys were taught never to hit a girl. In those days there were no reports of police beating up teenage girls and women or body slamming the elderly. To comprehend the degeneration of the American police/military into psychopaths and sociopaths, go online and observe the video of Lee Oswald in police custody in 1963. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FDDuRSgzFk Oswald was believed to have assassinated President John F. Kennedy and murdered a Dallas police officer only a few hours previously to the film. Yet he had not been beaten, his nose wasn’t broken, and his lips were not a bloody mess. Now go online and pick from the vast number of police brutality videos from our present time and observe the swollen and bleeding faces of teenage girls accused of sassing overbearing police officers.

In America today people with power are no longer accountable. This means citizens have become subjects, an indication of social collapse.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/12/30/2014-will-bring-social-collap...

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:59 | 4295220 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

You need to study history.

 

The Germany was armed to the teeth, HITLER banned guns, but only the Jews, Gypsies, ...homo's,

Most interesting is that the USA 1968 gun control act was a 100% copy from the 1932 NAZI germany gun control act. FACT. 

[ Forgotten by most is that SCHUMMER, & ILK have been using Nazi law from the 1930's all along to implement a New Nazism in the USA ]

Brown-Shirt germans never lost their guns,

 

***

What I see in the USA is that certain groups will be disarmed, but the most violent assholes the cops, mil, judges, system, gubmint they will keep their guns, ... only the little people ( not work for gubmint ) will lose their guns.

Never forget that the USA is MORE NAZI than NAZI. That the USA brought HITLER to power.

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:21 | 4295431 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

You should indeed study history.

During the Civil War that broke out in Germany during 1919-20 the Weimar government confiscated pretty much all private weaponry that they could; only the Freikorps and Red Army which were fighting each other in the streets of nearly every city had weapons.

Gun control in Germany predated the existence of the Nazi party, it is a simple historical fact.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:32 | 4295462 22winmag
22winmag's picture

I hear you.

 

The mega troll would have you believe the Bonus March getting broken up somehow equates to millions of armed Americans getting wiped out by the U.S. military in some kind of colossal nationwide SHTF event. It's like comparing apples to oranges and it's not happening.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:56 | 4295491 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

del

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:01 | 4295522 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

My point is that 99% of US citizens have never heard of 'bonus boy', yet its one of the most critical events in US history, as its the real reason FDR won the election.

Chief of Staff Douglas MacArthur and President Herbert Hoover Suffered Irreversible Damage to their Reputations after the 'Bonus Boy' Affair.

Most US people think FDR won the election because of the depression, ... or some other bullshit like the stock-market collapse, but the fact was HOOVER was seen by all as the better 'engineer', but people were so fucking pissed off by how the 'bonus marchers' were treated, they voted for FDR. Just a interesting historical fact that most in America, are not aware of.


    The 'bonus boy marchers' on the WASH-DC capital step's were murdered in COLD BLOOD, and this is a story that virtually 99% of the US public has never heard. That was my only point.
Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:40 | 4295485 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

HITLER hadn't even came to power in 1919, .. you are the troll.

Only a BOT would spew factoids without reading a comment, go back and read my comment about Hitler's 1932 gun control laws, and then comment.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:52 | 4295515 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

No shit, you idiot.

The point is that strict gun control by the central government in Germany was hardly something new or different that the Nazis instiuted. He did absolutely nothing new, mostly just restated existing policy.

Go read some books.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:06 | 4295555 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

The 1932 gun control law of HITLER, never existed in GERMANY prior to 1932,

In 1968 the USA passed a copy of the law verbatim, albeit translating the GERMAN law to English,  the rest is history.

The frog was boiled and died years ago.

***

This story is well documented by JPFO, "Jews for the preservation of firearm ownership", ... I highly suggest you learn history. The real history.

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 07:22 | 4295633 PT
PT's picture

400 million privately owned firearms - NONE of which are pointed in the right direction, NONE of which are in range of the perpetrators.  MOST of which will be used against your fellow Zombie instead of those who caused the mess.  If you're lucky then you might hit a drone.

400 million privately owned firearms is a good idea - don't let them go.  But don't forget the other obstacles that need to be overcome.  Oh yeah, and don't forget the aftermath of, if memory serves me correctly, Katerina and the Boston bombing - citizens handing over their weapons, one at a time, to a dozen armoured goons at their door.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 15:00 | 4297259 screw face
screw face's picture

..+1...22....now we got #FUKU!

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:30 | 4295124 Henry Rearden
Henry Rearden's picture

Totally agree with you. 

 

Here are some glaring examples of how wrong this essay is and how it is a puff piece for Macmillion (whose book Paris 1919 is a must read only if you have insomnia). 

 

1) there was widespread animosity that existed in those times between nations.  The French and the Germans were particually racist towards one another.

2) Aliances were formed between monarchs and cousins in Europe at the time.  Great Britians King George and Czar Nicholas were almost idential cousins (don't believe me, google it).  These family connections don't exist today, and business deals trump everything.  The war itself was a way for the monarchs to fend off the revolution of business deals trumping familes.  It only delayed the inevitabler uin of the monarchs by years.  Czar Nicholas and his immediately family were the first to suffer the defeat.

3) There was no interconnected financial ties between nations the way they are today.  Sure JP Morgan and company sold arms to the British in exchange for bonds, but the newely created Federal Reserve (1913) wasn't trading with and holding securities of Germany's Bundesbank. 

4) Finally, and the most important reason, technology and the free flow of press and information will not allow us to go to war with our allies over money.  No one will support it.  And most people in America didn't support going to WW1 when we went.   The only saving reason to do it was to create the League of Nations and attempt to create the precursor to the United Nations, but that ultimatly failed to pass the House and Senate because Wilson forbid the Speaker of the House (a republican) to go to Paris for the negotiations.

So no, 2014 is not going to be like 1914.  There are no two ways about it.  This is a fucking puff piece to try and sell more of Macmillion's awful book Paris 1919. 

 

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:59 | 4295227 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Internet is suppressed in china ect... Maybe we have the info but there are some that do not. So if one of the lesser informed nationalistic nations set it off, then its on

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:10 | 4295251 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Internet is supressed in the USA, remember the PRINTED PLASTIC GUN? ( 'printed 3d gun' ) they had the blueprints pulled from the net in minutes,

The USA and any nation on earth, can and does 'control' the internet.

***

In china what they do is BLOCK their citizens from using USA/NSA collection sites, ergo facebook is blocked, but they have their own clone that citizens can use. Why in the fucking hell should the chinese or any nation let the NSA/USA spy on their citizens?

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:07 | 4295244 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

"When FASCISM comes to America it will be wrapped with an AMERICAN flag" - Smedley Butler, 1932, most decorated US marine in history

Today you have left ( pelosi ) and right ( obama ) all endorsing NSA stasi spying.

The majority of american's will gladly wear brown-shirts in the coming HILLARY prez days, and they will gladly kill or imprison those they feel are not worthy of HILLARY-ISM.

***

Hitler came to power in the 1920's by way of the left, and gained the center, and then went to the Right.

If you look Pelosi, Feinstein, or CLINTON they have already gone to the right. The final solution is near.

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:28 | 4295307 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Government is the problem.

Does anyone think the government is likely to solve 'the problem'?

Just a thought.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:46 | 4295350 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

HL MENCKEN has it wired solid in 1928, that's why you guys need to realize there is nothing fucking new under the sun.

There is NO government, or anything there is only 'men', aka politicians,

***

"A polician is no different than me or you, he has just figured out a way a how to get rich, and not have to work, by promises, 9 times out of 10 his promises are worth nothing, 1 out of 10, its by looting A and passing the goods to B, ergo all USA elections are advance auction of stolen goods" - HL MENCKEN

Today politicans rob the majority on the behalf of the minority banking establishment, this has been going on forever. As long as organized governments have existed.

GOVERNMENT is just MEN aka "organized CRIME", always has and always will be.

SOLUTION: Find the most benevolent country on earth and go live there, and let the USA and its ILK fuck each other to death.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:28 | 4295308 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Just read about smedley butler and "the business plot". Good read discribing jp morgans 1st attempt at overthrowing the gov

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:59 | 4295379 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Study the 'bonus boys'. Probably the most important story in all USA history, and never told.

It's why FDR won the election in 1932 and HOOVER lost, HOOVER had WWI vet's shot and killed in WASH-DC with tanks, ... a story that virtually nobody in the USA knows about, but at the time its why HOOVER lost the eletion to FDR, and the rest is history.

Smedly led the 'Bonus Boys" to get their 'bonus', later the 'bankers' engineered a plot to get him involved in a bogus conspiracy, post 1933 BUTLER dropped out of politics and just wrote books about how fucked up american government is-was,

***

Then and NOW the USA WASH-DC is rotten to the fucking core, ... only a fucking clean-nuke  [ enhanced radiation weapon (ERW) ] could de-contaminate WASH-DC of sociopathy.

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 20:58 | 4295025 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Waiting for the Speed Rail to Auswitz in Amerika. Obamacare will do that . Yippie, Hope and Change Fuckers. 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:01 | 4295034 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

What happened just before WWI broke out? British coal production peaked and began to decline. This is also the time when the US went mostly off the gold standard.

US oil production peaked and began to decline just before two energy crises and economic upheaval. This is also the time the petrodollar was created and the US went completely off the gold standard.

Oil production in the Soviet Union peaked and began to decline in 1987. By 1991 it was the Former Soviet Union after political and economic collapse.

Argentinian oil production peaked and began to decline in 1998. The country experienced a violent economic collapse in 1999.

Also in 1999 British oil production from the north sea peaked and began to decline. That was followed by the tech bubble popping, 9/11, resource wars and civil unrest.

In 2006 global conventional crude oil production peaked and began a slow decline. Soon after came the great recession, more resource wars, more civil unrest, more money printing (more than $32,000.00 per second) and continued economic collapse.

Rhyme it does...

 

edited for formatting

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:31 | 4295139 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

War nowadays requires too much oil.  Not going to happen the old way anymore.  Note that NATO decided bombing purely defensive Quadaffi positions became "protecting civilians" only after 6 months of sorties that burned $120+ Brent.

War now will be exploding a few tankers and having insurance companes refuse to let others sail.  Then whoever goes thru their Strategic Petroleum Reserve fastest loses as starvation arrives via empty shelves trucks didn't stock.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:16 | 4295579 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Nukes don't use oil. A nuclear war between Israel and Iran would make for a nice start to 2014.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:09 | 4295055 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Even the puppets are out to get us.....this means trouble!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypts-latest-terror-sus...

 

Egypt’s latest terror suspect: The popular felt-and-yarn puppet Abla Fahita
Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:12 | 4295072 Pickle Jar Bob
Pickle Jar Bob's picture

Very nice essay.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:20 | 4295097 rtalcott
rtalcott's picture

Long Live The Kaiser!

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:20 | 4295106 optimator
optimator's picture

Well, in 1940 he was still heathy and chopping wood for exercise in Holland.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:02 | 4295384 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

Ya......  The Kaiser had great buns up to the end.  Brains were another story.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 12:45 | 4296741 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

The ottomans had a great thing going with their little piece of the global furniture market for hundreds of years there, but ottomans aren't that tough to make and their IP had long expired.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:22 | 4295101 optimator
optimator's picture

The European leadership blundered into the war.  Mobilization of the British Fleet by First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill, set the clock ticking.  Mobilization of the Russian Army touched it off. 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:33 | 4295315 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Winston S. Churchill - Self-interested, warmongering drunkard.

If there's a hell, he's in one of the hottest corners.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 12:49 | 4296749 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Ah, but with wit and panache. We could use that kind of fire out of politicians mouths again here in PCville, where stating the obvious is the end of you, but twerking, theft, fraud, public obscenity etc get you ahead.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:00 | 4295380 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

Bullshit.  The Cabal had planned it for decades.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:26 | 4295113 logicalman
logicalman's picture

All wars are banker's wars.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfEBupAeo4

Poor young men killing other poor young men to keep rich (cowardly) old men rich.

Wake the fuck up, people.

All Quiet on the Western Front - the original version, 1930 - lays it out very well.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:56 | 4295212 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

Kings have quarrel over money and send their people to war. Kings settle a deal over green table. Kings count money. People count dead.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 12:51 | 4296754 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Also, there were too many young men, due to mechanization in agriculture, improving sanitation(survival of childhood) but persistence of large family sizes.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:40 | 4295175 whateverittakes
whateverittakes's picture

Evans-Pritchard at the UK Telegraph yesterday in a good article had a similar take on world events and 1914

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:14 | 4295269 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Imagine if, in 1914, people had said 'Archduke Franz who?'

 

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:58 | 4295377 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

I thought it was Archie Marmaduke.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:43 | 4295181 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Is this message for the people who will actually cause the next war or just for the peons so that they can get comfortable with the idea of war?

Who exactly does the Diplomat serve? 

If you are not afraid...."you will be."

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:13 | 4295258 logicalman
logicalman's picture

If you are not afraid, maybe you have figured out that you are going to die anyway and have decided to enjoy each of the days you are fortunate enough to experience.

Thing about time is you don't know how much you've got and you can't get any more.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:16 | 4295277 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Exactly.  Exciting time to be alive, isn't it?  The next few years will have a chapter in history books devoted to them.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:32 | 4295323 logicalman
logicalman's picture

The problem with history books is usually the people who write them.

History is a lie agreed upon - N. Bonaparte

The victor writes the history books.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 21:45 | 4295189 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

There certainly are some worrying geopolitical parallels to situation today. Though, I also think in a different spot. All you need for a good WW is few troubled and bankrupt empires and ready supply of weak-minded cannon fodder (a.k.a. "patriots") that will volunteer for slaughter. No shortage of both today. I fear that some event in China Sea between China and Japan will serve as "archduke assassination" trigger.
BTW, I find discussion about what caused the WWI intellectually dishonest. Archduke assassination in Bosnia made Germans so furious that they got totally disoriented and thus run over Belgium? Right...
Not to mention that it is well documented that, within a year prior to assassination, Austro-Hungarian army commander in chief requested permission from Kaiser Franz to attack Serbia no less than 85 times.
So, that would be as saying that an earthquake in the Rift Valley was caused by a cricket. Well, technically maybe it was - but that's not the point. And, if it wasn't cricked it would be squirrel. The outcome would be the same.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:12 | 4295255 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the "Pledge of Allegiance" states "for liberty and justice for all" not "for prying and spying on all" (amen.) we have JINGOISM in the USA...but not a lot of nationalism. (and no, World War I did not cure the curse of nationalism.) The problem of course is absolutely insane historical arguments ("the Chinese discovered America") that give rise to AGGRESSION...not "nationalism" in and of itself. as the saying goes "the problem wasn't German-ness but the fact that they wanted to make you into one." that's definitely not true of the Americans. If there exists any "imperial aspiration" (and there really isn't much in the historical record that says there does...not that there can't be of course) it's pretty much in the Navy. Even there the USA basically "waffled and kibbutzed" most of time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnXWuQh3Dzo I do agree once the USA went all in on nuclear power it was "i drink your milkshake" time. still...we're far from alone on those seas unlike the English which ruled them for over a century incredibly. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRU1UVzWaXI obviously the Russians are not to be trifled with either: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yfn19IxP18c talk about whale watching.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:39 | 4295335 Stifmeister
Stifmeister's picture

King George of England, Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany and Tsar Nicholas of Russia are all first cousins.

Mind blown.....

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 22:46 | 4295343 lewy14
lewy14's picture
Why 2014 Doesn’t Have To Be 1914

+100

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:18 | 4295415 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

"By the early 20th century, the British clearly could not sustain the demands and costs of their empire."

So they set up the Fed run by the Rothschilds from the City of London to pull the strings of the USA and bleed us dry.  The only surprising thing is that the US economy and resourcefulness could last as long as it did with its arteries spurting blood.

None of these brilliant academics can figure out why WWI happened because if they did, they would lose their cushy tenured sinecures.

I know who my enemies are and they are a lot closer than Beijing.  The Tylers are feeding us these Diplomat fluff pieces to see how stupid we are.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:16 | 4295419 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

World War I was set into motion by all of the tangling alliances and mutual defense treaties that were set up, mainly on hereditary lines.  I would argue that today, we have as many of these tangling alliances in place as we have had since WWI.  They are no longer 'hereditary based' but are now 'economically based' - and that these perhaps are even stronger now that they were 100 years ago.  We may or may not see the "Guns of August" repeated, but there will be an economic war or a war for resources -- and that will be followed by mutliple currency re-sets in order to deal with the enormous global debt.  Dig those trenches and bunkers...

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:25 | 4295435 sangell
sangell's picture

China is not militarily ready to challenge the United States today which is the big difference between 1914. Germany was ready having surpassed the UK as the bigger economy and with technology at least as good as that of the British/French. The US and Japan relative to China are have an economic, technological and military edge over China that should last for at least a dozen more years.

Thu, 01/02/2014 - 23:49 | 4295507 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

China has NO such history.

1.) china doesn't want to be reserve currency

2.) china doesn't want to have to export jobs

3.) china doesn't want to have to murder its citizens in mass

4.) china doesn't want to be the world policeman.

The USA has chosen this path, ... but never think for a minute that just because the USA is a nation of morons, that the rest of the world wants to dance with them or like them.

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 01:50 | 4295740 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

China, particularly under Mao, but also many of his imperial predecessors, has a history of murdering tens of millions of its people.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 04:37 | 4295878 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Re-Education I prefer to call it a RESET.

The founding flubbers of the USA said that BLOOD must flow every few generations to cleanse the nation, it has been far too long that all the blood in WASH-DC has not flowed,

Regarding STALIN/MAO re-education, ... its coming to the USA.

**

WRT China I'm saying they don't want to control the world and be the reserve currency, which means they have to export jobs, and slaughter the world by force to accept their fiat, they never in history have wanted that, only the USA wanted this distinction.

I say again the CULLING of the masses is coming to the USA and soon and it is long over due and it will exceed 10 million,

Lastly the USA executed more than 100 million since 1910 to make the USD the worlds reserve currency.

 

 

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 04:50 | 4295892 lewy14
lewy14's picture

"Propaganda troll" is not your métier, satoshi.

Find another.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 00:21 | 4295589 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah but today we got nukes. And nukes are peace-forcing devices.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 01:35 | 4295720 Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/kant/kant1.htm

Immanuel Kant; Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch

1. "No Treaty of Peace Shall Be Held Valid in Which There Is Tacitly Reserved Matter for a Future War"

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 03:04 | 4295829 Joe A
Joe A's picture

The reason for WWI was the same reason as for any other war: who will be the boss? (over land, resources, people, etc.). Same as it ever was. Some historians want to put the blame solely on the Serbs which is BS. The Germans were just looking for a reason to start a war that in their opinion would establish Germany as the sole superpower in Europe. The Germans urged the Austrians to impose an ultimatum on Serbia which they could not accept (history would repeat itself -as usual- in 1999 when NATO put an ulitmatum on Serbia which it could not accept for it would have meant the complete occupation of Serbia by NATO).

Every emerging power wants to challenge the current one that is what we see happening in the world today.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 03:47 | 4295856 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

"there is still no consensus on why exactly it occurred"

That is only true for the ignorant. Germany was rapidly overtaking Britain and had to be stopped to preserve British world dominance. For this reason the British secret service arranged for the assasination of the archduke in the hope of provoking a wider war. 

There you have it. Now wonder there is no consensus, history is written by the victors and it would be too embarassing for them to tell the truth. It is safer to say: we don't know.

And have you noticed that in WW2, the British adamantly refused to sign peace even when offered by Germany? They wanted war!

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 07:35 | 4295967 mydogisprettier...
mydogisprettierthanyou's picture

2014 might be 1927. Fuck you yellen.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 08:59 | 4296017 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Yes well Ben told us "we'll never visit 1929 again in Stocks and financial collapse...and we are where we are!

And this lady suddenly gets a wake up call about a new Pax Americana strategy that became government NWO mantra in 1991. Given the financial conundrum and water under the bridge of US hubris in ME as elsewhere I think its being optimistic to count out repeat of 1914.

All you have to do is read the writing behind the wallpaper on all these issues : 

The NSA's Trying to Build a Quantum Computer That Cracks All Encryption

Israel Tests Arrow Missile Shield - Business Insider 

Who Is Involved In The War In Syria? - Business Insider

George Soros On China - Business Insider

Now put two and two together on whats up ahead in 2014 geopolitics.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 09:46 | 4296210 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

The world fell into WW1; they all declared war on each other as a matter of principle, but didn't expect to actually start fighting. The big problem was that some of the European Empires were already weak, and the young, united Germany was getting stronger all the time, and more vain. Everyone know the Austro-Hungarian Empire was bust, but not many realised that the French -just like now- were an empty bag of wind with a truly wretched leadership. Every bad and vain decision that could possible be made, was made.

Who, with any common or moral sense whatsoever, would line up a couple of million soliders in muddy trenches and tell them to take turns in running at the enemy with only bayonets -for years.

We have the same calibre of leadership nowadays, don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise. the China/Japan island dispute, the Syrain civil war, Iran/Israel, the upcoming Saudi/Russian dispute over who controls the Chechens and all those Muslim Republics along the Georgian border. Even Kim DimSum and the North Koreans, Russia and the Arctic oil wealth, and Argentina and the UK's Falkland Islands.

Any one of these could fester into something where some sucka will overstep the mark. Think Russia and China as Bismark's new powerhouse Germany from the turn of last century.

Fri, 01/03/2014 - 12:07 | 4296626 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Pivoting off the well-know Mark Twain adage that history does not repeat itself, but does rhyme, Macmillan suggests that the one-hundredth anniversary of World War I encourages us to reflect on the “valuable warnings” of the past."

 

Congress was given a valuable warning on Glass Steagall, yet dismantled it anyway.

If you think that reflecting on WW1 is going to make any difference to anything, you are fooling yourself. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:31 | 4303561 malek
malek's picture

 Today, she warns, the United States could easily be drawn into war in either the Middle East or East Asia by its alliance ties.

Truly outstanding satire! Oh, wait...

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