ISM Beats Expectations Despite Its First Drop In Seven Months
After beating expectations for 6 months in a row, the whisper expectations for December's Manufacturing ISM was a small miss of the 56.8 consensus print. Instead, the US inventory build up in the quarter boosted the ISM for one more month with the headline print of 57.0 beating expectations modestly, if recording the first decline in seven months, down from November's 57.3. There was little surprise in the internals, which saw New Orders (64.2 vs 63.6), Employment (56.9 vs 56.5) and Prices Paid (53.5 vs 52.5) all rise modestly. The New Orders Index increased in December by 0.6 percentage point to 64.2 percent, which is its highest reading since April 2010. The Employment reading was the highest since June 2011. Like the Chicago PMI previously, inventories dipped into contraction territory, if not as violently as in Chicago, down from 50.5 to 47.0. Judging by the boost to the US economy from the government shutdown, perhaps Congress should close more often: like permanently?
From the report:
The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI™ registered 57 percent, the second highest reading for the year, just 0.3 percentage point below November's reading of 57.3 percent. The New Orders Index increased in December by 0.6 percentage point to 64.2 percent, which is its highest reading since April 2010 when it registered 65.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.9 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to November's reading of 56.5 percent. December's employment reading is the highest since June 2011 when the Employment Index registered 59 percent. Comments from the panel generally reflect a solid final month of the year, capping off the second half of 2013, which was characterized by continuous growth and momentum in manufacturing."
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 are reporting growth in December in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The four industries reporting contraction in December are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
The full breakdown:
The break down of commodities rising and falling in price?
Commodities Up in Price
- #1 Busheling Scrap; Corrugated Packaging; Galvanized Steel; Methanol; Plastic Resins; Stainless Steel; Steel; Steel — HRPO; Steel — Hot Rolled (2); and Wood (2).
Commodities Down in Price
- Aluminum (2); Brass; Corn Based Products (2); Fuel (2); Hydraulic Components; MRO Supplies; and Office Supplies.
No commodities were reported in short supply.
The respondents, "amazingly enough", were all bullish across the board:
- "Amazingly enough, we are seeing meaningful increases in our sales in nearly all segments and regions." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
- "Largest backlog ever. Most orders waiting on customer approvals." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Orders and price continue to be strong." (Paper Products)
- "Continued government spending constraints keeping production volumes low." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Good overall business conditions nationally and internationally." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Markets are sound. We typically see a seasonal 4th quarter slowdown. However, this year … not so." (Wood Products)
- "Very, very busy." (Furniture & Related Products)
- "Sales are strong going into the holiday season." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Construction equipment market continues to be flat with some signs of improvement on the horizon." (Machinery)
- "Business conditions remain stable to slightly improving." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
So a great opportunity for the Fed to taper its flow by another $10 billion perhaps. Incidentally judging by the stock market reaction to this better than expected news, that's exactly the concern...
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