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All The World's PMIs In One Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Of the 21 nations covered by PMI "soft data" surveys, only 4 have sub-50 (deceleration) prints - Russia remains at multi-year lows along with France (core Europe?), Australia (but but China?), and Greece. Of course, as Goldman (some of the optimism on the basis of recent manufacturing PMIs... may not square with evidence of a structural break in the link between the PMIs and growth) and BofAML (it's important to understand how crude these surveys are) note, faith in these 'surveys' is often misplaced (and current levels suggest the rolling over is coming soon).

 

 

Bear in mind, Goldman's own work on "soft data" surveys like PMI in Europe - We conclude that some of the optimism on the basis of recent manufacturing PMIs... may not square with evidence of a structural break in the link between the PMIs and growth. While a reading of 50 may in pre-crisis days have indicated positive growth... it today may only indicate flat growth, as the external financing constraint prevents better sentiment from translating into activity.

 

And BofAML's destruction ofthe "myth" of exuberant PMIs,

It is important to understand how crude these surveys are. Each month, a few hundred purchasing managers are asked if a variety of activity variables are up, down, or the same relative to the prior month. Their responses are then converted into diffusion indexes: the sum of the number managers reporting activity is “increasing” and half of those reporting “the same.” Note that there is some guesswork involved: the survey is taken before the month is over and some of the questions cover areas of the firm that are difficult for a purchasing manager to get a timely read on.

...

Fans of the two indexes point out that they are relatively stable, easy to interpret and never revised. However, in our view, the simplicity of the data is a drawback, not an advantage. It means no attempt is made to correct misreporting or to include late respondents. Moreover, the sample they use is not representative of the overall economy. They represent a broad cross-section of industries, but they oversample big firms and they make no attempt to adjust for the birth and death of firms.

 

Chart: JPMorgan

 

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Sat, 01/04/2014 - 13:19 | 4299857 Sufiy
Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:52 | 4300936 Four chan
Four chan's picture

contrived index is contrived.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 13:34 | 4299861 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US and UK have the highest global manufacturing data?  Are they not best known for spying on everyone and manufacturing fake data?

If we ever get real data, one may benefit from examining them.  Probably won't happen anytime soon as debts are so high, every nation has to lie outrageously about its growth prospects to keep its currency strong.

No one talks about US debt and unfunded liabilities of $1,256,000 per taxpayer and rising at $70,000 per year.

Like all the children in Lake Wobegon, everyone is above average.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 13:46 | 4299906 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

JPMoron, Gollum Sacks, BankruptcyoAML, just a list of the same criminal muppet robbing banks.

Go die in a huge debt defaulting deflationary F.I.R.E!

EDIT:  I'm surprised that Shittibank didn't have some detrius in there.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 16:30 | 4300155 remain calm
remain calm's picture

PMI = Penis Maximally Inserted.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!