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Jim Rogers Warns "Bernanke Has Set The Stage For The Fed's Collapse"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With Bernanke's term due to expire in January, Jim Rogers warns Mineweb that the Fed-head will be remembered as "the guy who set the stage for the demise of the Central Bank in America. We've had three central banks in America. The first two disappeared. This one's going to disappear too in the next decade." With precious metals, bonds, and stock markets obsessing over Fed actions, Rogers says, in the next 10 years or so, "People will realise that these guys have led us down a terrible path," and collapse is "not a possibility," he adds, "it's a probability."

Via Mineweb,

100 years ago you could not have named the head of most central banks in the world,” Rogers told Mineweb. “Now they're all rockstars.” Gold and equity markets have increasingly been locked in Fed-watch mode in 2013, obsessing over when or whether chairman Ben Bernanke would taper the bank's vast bond buying scheme.

Rogers however, an ardent free-marketeer, says the market's narrow focus on the Fed reflects the bank's rising and now extreme interference in global markets, propelling the likes of Bernanke in the US and Mario Draghi in Europe to near household name status.

“Everybody knows them,” he says, “but that's only a phenomenon of the last 20 years, when central banks have been pumping money into the markets and everybody's singing hallelujah.”

With Bernanke's term due to expire in January, Rogers says he will be remembered as “the guy who set the stage for the demise of the Central Bank in America. We've had three central banks in America. The first two disappeared. This one's going to disappear too in the next decade.”

“It's not a possibility,” he adds, “it's a probability. People will realise that these guys have led us down a terrible path. The Fed balance sheet has increased by 500 per cent in the last 5 years and a lot of it's garbage.”

Unlike the wider market, Rogers does not set great store by the Fed's decision shortly before Christmas to taper its bond buying measures from $85bn per month to $75bn. The announcement put pressure on gold and drove US equities to a new all-time high, in what Rogers views as a relief rally.

“The US went up because people said, 'Now it's done, we don't have to worry anymore.' But somewhere along the line, markets are going to start suffering. They'll taper until the markets start hurting and then they'll panic and loosen up again. They've got themselves in a terrible box.”

It'll turn into a bubble or a very inflated situation, but eventually the markets will say, we're not going to take your garbage anymore, whether it's treasury bonds or currency.” Inflation, Rogers says, has only been kept in check in the US by the country's shale gas discovery, putting a “dampener” on energy prices.

Whist Rogers views mass money printing as untenable, in the short term, he expects equities to turn parabolic, rather than collapse.

“The Japanese Central Bank has said that it will print unlimited amounts of money,” he says. “That's their word and they're doing it. When people look back 20 years from now they'll say that's what killed Japan, but in the meantime, all the staggering, unlimited amounts of money have got to go somewhere and it's going to go into Japanese shares.”

Rogers prefers gold over gold mining shares and divisible coins over bullion, but says “there's nothing in precious metals that I'm tempted to buy at the moment.” Indian import tariffs he views as the single biggest drag on the gold market currently.

“They've got a huge balance of trade deficit and the three largest parts are oil, gold and cooking oil. They cannot do anything about oil or cooking oil, so they're attacking gold, blaming their problems on gold. Gold has not caused their problems, gold is a symptom of their problems, but politicians are pretty simple-minded people and they look for the easy answer.”

For early 2014, Rogers is therefore long inflatable equities and neutral on gold, but longer term, he expects to short junk and government bonds and is ultra bullish on gold. “Gold will become one of the only refuges around,” he says.

 

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Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:31 | 4300880 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Rogers is over 70, he is NOT immortal, unlike you.

I have already said,... the US army delta force was murdered when they stood up and objected ( 1990's post WACO), and in recent years the Navy Seals (2012+) were murdered when they spoke up.

Now you tell me that the virtual keyboard army aka ZH is going to accomplish what DELTA&SEAL failed? To restore America?

I think not.

***

The USA is the BOILED-FROG the MIL took over in the 1950's, its now 60+ years complete, there is no returning to a civilian government in the USA.

Denial, or imagining uptopia will never help you, nor will BTC.

The world is full of benevolent country's that have said FUCK-YOU to the USA HEGEMONY, find one and enjoy life.

 

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:55 | 4300941 therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

You are assuming the-powers-that-be are going to always have the economic resources to continue to dominate.  Fiat finally fizzles.  Gold is going from the west to the east.    

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 23:47 | 4301021 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Imagine a war, during the last war's the USA said "Let us store your gold in a safe place, ... and we'll return it post war"

Imagine WWIII, and WWIV, and the USA sadly is going to be the 500LB gorilla for a long fucking time, like it or not.

Nobody wants reserve currency, nobody on the earth wants to be the world's policeman, except uncle-sam-nazi.

There will be WWIII, and once again the USA will say "We will store your gold", and once again the USA will have GOLD.

***

I wish this were not true, the world is NOT fair, if GOOD won, then Mr. Rogers would be still living in the USA, but he's not, years ago they stole $300K from his account, the FED's refused to help him, ... so he left the USA and now keeps his money in the safety of Singapore banks.

***

But eventually most likely when the USA goes ape-nuts and engineers WWIII, all the Singapore loot will go to the USA, I know its not popular notion here, but its historically a pattern of US behavior.

***

There is nobody on the planet with the balls or the ability to STOP the USA/IMF.

***

Another thing not mentioned here today is the SDR, certainly by the time HILLARY is president in 2016 there will be a no currency, not called the USD, and all the players will get drawing rights, and the USA will be able to pull this new FIAT out of its ass forever...

But a 'collapse', ... perhaps for those that don't  have a government job, the world will have collapsed, but for those who carry the government club or gun, life will be good for generations to come.

I know its sad, ... but its true.

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 09:59 | 4301438 new game
new game's picture

you say many bold things and get many thinking. you are more right than wrong.

All down votes are shots at the mesanger (more or less).

reason you are spot on is simple message my oldest son would say to younger son:

I WILL BEAT YOU.  we would have too. so there you have it-simple reality of life.

do as i say or i will beat you. hmmmm, pretty fucking simple.

beat or be beaten.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:23 | 4300870 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Wow all the RED, I love Rogers, ... so it can't be that, ... I said the USA is operating under SPECIAL MILITARY Powers, .. yep going back to JFK years, I thought everybody knew this?

So why  the RED?

The NSA has been unbridled for 70 years, and now rules the world, is this news to you? Not to me I was there all along for the ride.

 

Truth hurts? You have to deal with reality, and if you want to be 'free' get the fuck out of the USA. Pure and Fucking Simple.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 08:08 | 4301370 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

Mako, Trav & Aurora used to get a ton of REDs too.  comes with the territory, though it may also have something to do with the abrasiveness in which the message is delivered.   not necessarily a criticism, just food for thought.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 23:43 | 4301017 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

sounds like despotism. isn't it great having criminals run shit

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 00:16 | 4301069 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Criminals have been running the USA since 1776, the narrative is the USA founders were 'good men', the fact is in England they were called criminals, in the USA they're called Suits, lawyers, or judges.

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 10:01 | 4301442 new game
new game's picture

wealth/power ALWAYS goes hand in hand with criminality...

wealthy people suck. hidden agenda-not real people-money driven ideals.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 13:26 | 4301843 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Revolution was a gang war. Local mafia got tired of kicking up. London fought to keep income stream.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:00 | 4300811 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Question:    Is the Fed operating illegally without a charter? How far would we get trying to operate a bank here in the USSA without a charter?  

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:18 | 4300858 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The major banking families wrote the Fed's charter in 1913.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:36 | 4300893 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Nodebt   I know the history. The charter ended in December, so is it illegal for them to operate past that time?

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:45 | 4300913 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Be careful with the word 'illegal'.  If you can substitute the word 'unconstitutional' you're on firmer footing.  And in that respect, I'm not sure if it EVER was.  So why would the expiration of a charter make it more or less so?

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 23:12 | 4300965 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Just a question, no need to get all bunged up. If the Fed is going continue, then they will need to reup for another hundred years of fun and frivolity and debt-serf flogging.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 00:11 | 4301065 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Soon the IMF(NSA/CIA) will be printing the money called "SDR", at that point the FED goes away.

OK

The deal is already done.

China has signed off, and so has Russia.

Snowden was only given one year asylum in Russia.

YELLEN will manage the transistion to the SDR,

The SDR will just be the USD, but under full control of  the US-MIL(NSA).

 

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:59 | 4300935 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

I will offer a revised version of history, so we can all MAP together.

1.) 1913 secret bankers create new super bank 'FED' ... Jekyll Island

2.) WWI, ... USA gets worlds loot, MIL pissed off about banker war, and mad as hell.

3.) 1933 MIL fed up and engineers COUP, but fails

3a.) Post WWII MIL plan's NEW WORLD ORDER, using Hitler Plans

4.) 1948 MIL makes special deal with bankers, 1/2 & 1/2 split of power, civilian USA control's citizens, US-MIL controls the world, begats IMF, UN

4a.) 1963 the MIL creates the 'internet' aka TCP/IP DOD-DARPA

5.) 1972 MIL takes total control, Vietnam fiasco nail in coffin for ruling MIL elite

6.) 2013 MIL goes public with NSA 'Total Information Awareness'

**

How will it all end? Is it legal, ... who gives a fuck, we're only on this planet a short time, get drunk, laid, and dance in a nice country while your still alive.

 

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:36 | 4300892 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Why do you guys always talk about "LEGAL",

The MILITARY is exempt from all CIVILIAN LAW, they have their own courts, the NSA has been off-budget running a black-budget for years, and post 1970's they too, got unlimited FIAT (USD).

LEGAL don't have a fucking to do with anything post 1970's.

Might makes Right, the USA is backed by  a GUN (nuke), that's all you need to rule the world is FEAR.

***

Mr Rogers offers the world a sanitized feel-good, bring back the old day grandpa approach to viewing reality, perhaps this is why MSM brings Mr. Magoo to the BOOB-TUBE?

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:14 | 4300843 q99x2
q99x2's picture

“Everybody knows them,” 

Everybody hates them and wants to see them do prison time for their crimes.

I like Jim Rogers for running on a tread mill.

I'm back up to over 8 miles non-stop at the beach. Thanks to my pre-Obamacare medical treatment. Got that taken care of just in the nick of time.

Lots of pilot whales out there today.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 01:28 | 4301163 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Those whales will be gone soon enough after the Fuku treatment.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:19 | 4300855 spinone
spinone's picture

Credit creation is not a substitute for declining employment and resources.  This is going to be a long trend.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:38 | 4300863 adventure007
adventure007's picture

My mother taught me the importance of gold in times of crisis in India, when she had to mortage her jewelery for an important family need. The banks wouldnt take our home as a guarantee when all we wanted was 2k USD - but took my mothers gold. Thank you Zerohedge community for sharing so many amazing educational essays / artciles and the comments from the community to make people aware of the REALITY.

Jim Cramer - 2007

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU&feature=youtu.be

 

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:46 | 4300915 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

adventure   Lost count how many times I have sung the praises of the Indian people for owning gold. Not long ago I had a business meeting with a fellow from India, he lamented stories of how families will sell their gold when tough times arise and went into detail about the workings of their system. Banks hate not holding your money ALL of the time........makes them scheme all the more. If Amerikans would sniff the coffee and store wealth in gold, we could tell the banksters to fuck off.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:52 | 4300927 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

 

Surely the best news of 2014.  Tomorrow isn't soon enough.  I wonder what the Powers that Be have in mind now?  Bar codes on the forehead or microchips?

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 23:36 | 4300999 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Having the NSA scan the input/output of waste treaments plants isn't enough for you?

Facebook, Google, Twitter, ... et-al seems' to lead the pack on Orwellianism, if you want to know what the NSA will know tomorrow, watch what FB,GOOGLE, et-al ask of you today.

Did you see the one yesterday that Facebook is now scanning and storing stuff that failed to send? Even stuff that you wrote only as DRAFT is permanent now.

RFID chips, .. digestible, ISOCYANATE coated drugs/biological-weapons have been available for years sprayed in the air over city's and depending upon the coating thickness, the delay of delivering the drug can be as long as they wish.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 05:10 | 4301312 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

neither. It's called a microfluidic chip, aka lab on a chip.

netbio makes them for DHS.

They can scan your identity from your DNA. Last I checked was 2 weeks turn-around time. Their plan is to improve them to work within minutes. The chip is mobile, not in you.

in YOU is the serial number - your DNA - and you can't remove it.

This is your future (scanning) combined with how it will be used (control)

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:34 | 4302457 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Thoughtful and logical post.

Frankly, a breeze for them to implement once the technology and systems are perfected. First, whenever you provide a blood sample via your local health system.  Second, for any license or to access some .gov benefit / pension.  Third, for travel passport identification under the guise of protecting you from 'terror', blah, blah.

For all we know they have already started.....

+1 for 'Equilibrium' ... same thing crossed my mind when I watched it.

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:49 | 4300928 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Anyone have an application they recommend for a one-time-pad cypher they like?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 04:52 | 4301303 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

it's honestly not that hard to write one. A one time pad can be ANY random string of digits and works best if it's longer than the message itself to be encrypted.

At that point even a simple XOR bit-flipper works because you still need the key itself and the idea is you never expose the OTP given that it's symmetric. It's up to you to decide how to relay the OTP: will you use asymmetric encryption like what's in GPG or PGP or will you deliver it by hand? Will it be kept secure? Will you use each message to send the next OTP to be used for the next message in sequence?

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 22:58 | 4300947 Duc888
Duc888's picture

SR 118.  Regarding the supposed FED charter expiring.

 

Nope.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oSO8mqJso4

 

Fed is here to stay Bitchez........

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 23:03 | 4300948 adventure007
adventure007's picture

I agree. American people are very friendly, I have travelled through all the states in America except Hawaii. My experience was that most people in the smallest of the towns were friendly and its a shame that the bueracrats in this country are destroying the essence of freedom and capitalism. 

When I travel to places in other parts of the world  and observe it from the OUTSIDE - the realization of how the FED has duped the US population is a shame. When the masses experience the night life happening in NYC / LA / .. and watching Miley Cyrus on their flat screen TV - they are not AWARE of the reality and I think thanks to the efforts of several key people such as Ron Paul and the liberterian movement - people are waking up and realizing that the FED is the culprit even on sites like CNN.

Ending the FED would restore prosperity and help people in America innovate and lead the future in many positive black swans such as the invention of the internet - which I think is a key tool for people figuring out the truth behind MONEY PRINTING!

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 23:40 | 4301002 drinkin koolaid
drinkin koolaid's picture

Super bullish on gold long term, but no way have we seen the lows yet. I will continue to actively hedge by shorting rallies into resistance as I did on Thursday last week, shorting gold stocks. For over 2 years now all little rallies in gold ,brought out the perpetual and constantly wrong, bottom callers in gold. They're out with new bottom proclamations. Sorry, the trend is still down, I will short the rallies, but the major bottom is getting much closer. $1179 will be broken.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 01:19 | 4301154 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

From all of us stackers of phyzz to all of you paper pushing GLD fags, fuck you and thank you.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 02:19 | 4301208 drinkin koolaid
drinkin koolaid's picture

Hey genius, do you know what it means to put on a hedge. And I don't smoke.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 10:30 | 4301467 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Yes. I own real estate, stawks, bonds, phyzz but also have a hefty cash reserve built up. I am looking into some BTC as well to keep it diversified. Paper pushers keep the lie going. 

Sat, 01/04/2014 - 23:46 | 4301018 The Final Straw
The Final Straw's picture

When is the NSA having its IPO? Bullish for blackmail.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 00:07 | 4301059 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

The NSA had their IPO's long ago

ORACLE

MICROSOFT

GOOGLE

FACEBOOK

APPLE

CISCO

All are wholly owned, funded and managed by the NSA.

This is why 90% of ameriKKKa loves the NSA, cuz it funds the USA pension system

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 00:34 | 4301095 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

This one will take the US nation of DC with it--good riddance. Unfortunately, it will also drag the American people down as well.

To quote a scumbag, "Bring it on!"

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 00:47 | 4301108 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

If Bernanke set the stage for the end to the Fed...  Does that make him an unwitting hero? 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 01:08 | 4301137 mt paul
mt paul's picture

an unwitting Nero? 

 

maybe...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 01:08 | 4301134 Richard Whitney
Richard Whitney's picture

This guy once told a Barron's roundtable that Clinton would be the last Democratic president. They finally stopped inviting the guy when, year after year, he would suggest nutmeg or artisinal Indonesian beer or other ridiculous exotica while the other participants made intelligent suggestions that actually paid off.  Before that he said rates would skyrocket, when they were only in the middle of a 30-year decline. Before that he has a Barron's cover "Bearish on the World" when the DJIA was at 2300 (never to go lower). I have watched this from this guy, over and over, for 30 years. There have been more wild catastrophic predictions from this guy that never occur that he doesn't get called on. He mistakes pouring disdain for having insight.

Stop giving this smug narcissist the attention he is addicted to. 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 01:59 | 4301196 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Jim probaly just read the Reinhart and Rogoff paper for the IMF "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises".

But to tell you the truth...the reaction to the paper should be getting much more viral and visceral.  Its tough for Jim to get too bent out of shape. 

They really need to get Dennis Leary or someone else with some piss and vinegar on this collapse stuff.

Its dead Jim...but maybe someone else will wake up the Frankenstein monster.

Its too repeated (but its probably going down in 2014).

 

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 02:08 | 4301203 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Rogers seems to ignore the fact that India has a long tradition of gold smuggling.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 02:54 | 4301238 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"It happens when the fat lady sings."

QEen Yellen is the fat lady, all she has to do is sing.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 03:51 | 4301253 silverstud
silverstud's picture

Rockstars....

they all live under a rock

and it ain't gold or silver

it's rotting paper..........

wondering who pooed in it

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 03:32 | 4301255 reader2010
reader2010's picture

“A man who gives a good account of himself is probably lying, since any life when viewed from the inside is simply a series of defeats.”

-George Orwell, All Art Is Propaganda: Critical Essays

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 04:07 | 4301276 rp1
rp1's picture

Dear Ms. Yellen,

Would you consider adding some pounds and attempting an aria?  Because we're all waiting for that.

 

Sincerely,

Reality.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 05:52 | 4301330 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Collapse looks like this

 

Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession

 

FT.com 

Toil for oil means industry sums do not add up

Rising costs are being met only by ever smaller increases in supply

The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing.

Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance.

According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9mbd over the 75.2mbd produced in 2000.

However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs).

This distinction matters because unconventional crude has a higher cost than conventional crude, while NGLs have a lower energy density.

The IEA’s long-run cost curve has conventional crude in a range of $10-$70 a barrel, whereas for unconventional crude the ranges are higher: $50-$90 a barrel for oil sands, $50-$100 for light-tight oil, and $70-$90 for ultra-deep water. Meanwhile, in terms of energy content, a barrel of crude oil is worth 1.4 barrels of NGLs.

Threefold rise

The much higher cost of developing unconventional crude resources and the lower energy density of NGLs explain why, as these sources have increased their share of supply, the industry’s upstream capex has increased. But the sheer scale of the increase is staggering: upstream outlays have risen more than threefold in real terms over the past 12 years, reaching nearly $700bn in 2012 compared with only $250bn in 2000 (both figures in constant 2012 dollars).

Coinciding with the rise in US tight-oil production, most of this increase in upstream capex has occurred since 2005, as investments have effectively doubled from $350bn in that year to nearly $700bn in 2012 (again in 2012 dollars).

All of which means the 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) by only 14 per cent. The most straightforward interpretation of this data is that the economics of oil have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005), with the industry investing at exponentially higher rates for increasingly small incremental yields of energy.

The industry has been able and willing to finance such a dramatic increase in its capital investment since 2000 owing to the similarly dramatic increase in prices. BP data show that the average price of Brent crude in real terms increased from $38 a barrel in 2000 to $112 in 2012 (in constant 2011 dollars), which represents a 195 per cent increase, slightly greater in fact than the increase in industry capex over the same period.

However, looking only at the period since 2005, capital outlays have risen faster than prices (90 per cent and 75 per cent respectively), while in the past two years capex has risen by a further 20 per cent (the IEA estimates 2013 upstream capex at $710bn versus $590bn in 2011), while Brent prices have actually averaged about $5 a barrel less this year than in 2011.

Iran not a game changer

That prices have fallen slightly since 2011 while capex has risen by a further 20 per cent is a flashing light on the industry’s dashboard indicating that its upstream growth engine may finally be overheating.

Without a significant technological breakthrough reversing the geological forces that have driven the unprecedented increase in upstream investment over the past decade, prices will have to rise further in real terms from here or else capex – and with it future oil production – will fall.

It should also be emphasised that this vast increase in capex has occurred during a prolonged period of record-low interest rates. Once interest rates start rising again, this will put further pressure on the industry’s ability to make the massive capital outlays required to keep supply growing.

Of course, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved with Iran over the weekend could provide some much needed short-term relief to the market, as Iran’s exports could ultimately increase by up to 1.5m barrels a day if and when western sanctions were to be fully lifted. But this would not change the dynamics of the industry’s capex treadmill in any fundamental sense.

Even if global oil demand only grows at 1 per cent a cent a year, those extra barrels would be would be fully absorbed by the market within about 18 months. And that is probably how long it would take for Iran’s production and exports to return to pre-sanctions levels in any case.

Alternatively, if we take the IEA’s estimate that global production of conventional crude oil from all currently producing fields will decline by 41m barrels a day by 2035 (that is, by an average of 1.9m barrels a day per year), then Iran’s potential increase of 1.5m barrels a day would compensate for just 10 months of natural decline in global conventional-crude output.

In short, behind the hubbub of market hype about a new age of oil abundance, the toil for oil is in fact now more arduous and back-breaking than ever.

This should worry everybody, because with the evidence suggesting that consumers are reluctant to pay much above $110 a barrel, it is an open question what happens next to the industry’s investment plans and hence, over time, to the supply of oil.

Mark Lewis is an independent energy analyst and former head of energy research in commodities at Deutsche Bank; Daniel L Davis, a lieutenant colonel in the US Army, is co-author

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 07:19 | 4301349 smacker
smacker's picture

BP's retired engineer Dr Miller describes well the real mess we are in with Peak Oil. Nothing he says differs from my own views accumulated over the past 10-12 years.

The irony is that despite this state of affairs, there is NO developed country government which even dares to mention "Peak Oil", let alone propose measures to deal with it. They are all in denial.

As I've said before on ZH and elsewhere, there could be a case made to show that one of the triggers for the 2008 financial crash was the rising price of oil/energy which drove people to take on ever more personal debt to fund their living costs. "Peak Debt" soon happened.

If that is correct, it strongly implies that if/when/as developed countries struggle to climb out of recession/depression, they will be plunged back into it by further rises in the price of oil as demand rises for a commodity that's in ever more constrained supply. This rinse and repeat cycle will continue until oil eventually runs out or becomes too expensive and energy intensive activity declines.

And this is where Obama has failed miserably. In his first presidential campaign he promised to invest in technologies to "get America off oil". I see little or no action on this and yet it cannot be ignored. War to seize control of "what's left" is not the answer.

As I've also said before, there needs to be a "crash program" to produce new, clean, green plentiful energy. This should involve all major countries but should be lead by the United States.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 10:26 | 4301462 new game
new game's picture

current oil production = 7+ billion human units

either we use in more efficently or get more or turn on each other.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 11:02 | 4301536 joego1
joego1's picture

7 billion sheeples pulling a plow and pooping their own fertilizer.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 11:09 | 4301550 new game
new game's picture

are you sugesting the slave era-we abolished that and have plastic cards for food.

was behind a card carrying member at the coop, and truly felt like i was fucked know ing some of her food i paid for with my units of labor for fiat.

now that is the problem-because i want to tell her a little stry about life but she is the strawwoman in the story and wouldn't understand anyways.

so there it is for all to understand - the transfer payment of preceived inequality, all fashion by polititcians for votes with blame implosible to access...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 11:25 | 4301595 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

actually, sheeple are forbidden by most STATES LAW to poop their own fertilizer.

don't knock it til you tried it :)

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:15 | 4303226 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Yes, actually that would be lie # 1,276,234.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 06:05 | 4301333 smacker
smacker's picture

Predictions like this one from Rogers of the Fed's collapse thru gross mismanagement and incompetence rarely factor in the possibility of a Big Government fascist takeover of the economy and society. We have already seen this happening at a rate of knots and I don't expect to see a roll-back any time soon.

So the real short-term prediction should be whether the Fed will survive and prosper in a fascist political and economic environment. I believe the answer is a resounding Yes. Simply because in that environment, there is no need or desire for the elites to operate free markets and accountable institutions. Everything becomes centrally planned, controlled and directed.

The long-term prediction is when does the Revolution begin.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 06:45 | 4301340 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

There won't be any collapse in the sense of the present controllers losing control.

Collapse will be just for the rest of us, not the elite.

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 16:15 | 4302200 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

I think it is important to remember that there is not "THE elites". 

There are multiple temporarily and situationally aligned families and groups who control or significantly influence most of the information dissemination and resources, and therefore the world.  The key is "temporarily aligned".  Global political and corporate entities, and our countries are the chess pieces these groups manipulate for power advantage among and over each other.  Think of enormously powerful ,well educated, and extraordinarily politically sophisticated Hatfields and McCoys, and Rothchilds...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 07:46 | 4301359 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

Federal Reserve of the Banks, by the Banks and for the Banks. 

The rest of the country and its citizens be damned. The main aim of the political class and the central bankers around the world is to create one bubble after another for the zombie bankers to feed on. The majority of the population who actually work hard to earn their living by engaging in productive work have to pay the price by either loosing a majority of their earnings in the form of taxes, interest on loans or paying the bill for the bailouts. 

www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 09:55 | 4301433 verbot
verbot's picture

Verbot.exe loadmem..mem loadsarc...sarc loadwit...module missing press any key to continue.

Wow! You all are a fiesty group today... oh, and "law" I thinkis about how when folks get stuff.. (home wife kids wisdom potbelly. ..) they need a structure to feel good about keeping it. Dont matter as long as it fits the need at the time..we stackers would be upset if we held shiney rocks waking up in the age of seashells... Perceived valuations can crush good sense so thats another reason I play only the industrial angle of P.M...

But the fedis just gonna hoover up the old and presto chango...seen the "cotton candy colored 100s?) So all this lament is just about a misunderstanding the fed gives a crap.. they gonna work it and we gonna let them and its all fiat all the time..no impact at all as it is simply "destroyed"..etc... come on guys it this false idea there are any rules is how guys like him and others make these loud statements and sit on teevee talking up a strawman about the federal reserve........imho...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 10:03 | 4301444 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

I seriously looked at Costa Rica (CR) for a place to re-locate, and spent several months there. CR people have a good thing going, especially if they have some education. Good climate, good and plentyful water, the food is awesome and plentyful, good soil. Good public transportation ( and inexpensive0.The people are much more free than in the US. Cheap healthcare (socialized) and dentistry with a minimal police-force that doubles as military. Prectically non-existant. Certainly nothing like Mexico that has checkpoints all over the place with a serious military presence. Like I say a lot of good things....

One thing bothers me though, a lot. They have no Nat.gas or oil, not even a refinery. Fuels are imported into the port-city of Limon and then piped ( with what looed to me two 6 ir 8 inch pipes) up to the central valley ( Cartago, San Jose, Alajuela) where there is some storage and from there distributed throughout the country. 

If for whatever reason that oil ever stops, it's curtains time, and when the going gets tough I'm not sure I want to be a gringo holding a blue passport.

If you have information about a place suitable for migration, please do tell, and be specific. Thanks.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 10:51 | 4301513 new game
new game's picture

i think you choice is stellar. remeber CR will not be the only country short of oil.

also, coutries with oil are the hot spots.

u can't have it both ways...

my vote is chile...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 11:29 | 4301604 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

CR might not have easy access to petrol, but they do have some seriously rich soil/climate for growing jatropha & oil palm.

http://www.journeytoforever.org/biodiesel_yield.html

and a nice selection of diesel engines too.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 15:36 | 4302115 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Curtains for CR but not NY?

You can always trade food for oil, an exportable food or water crop is just as valuable as oil, and far less volatile, in the future food will be harder to come by than energy.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:40 | 4302677 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Don't discount the likes of NZ.  74% of european descent plus a large and growing Asian population now at 11.9%.  The main city, Auckland, is suffering from a credit-fueled property bubble but plenty of properties can be cheaply got outside the main cities.

Sure you will suffer from the usual socialist claptrap as in all progressive western democracies.  Advantages, sparce population, self sufficient in food, massive water supplies, hydro power and relatively free.  Gun laws which are vitually libertarian when compared to Austraila and the UK.  You can still own firearms such as AR's and AK's on a normal license which are will be restricted, i.e., no pistol grip, flash supressor and 7 round limit for magazines, etc, to appease the nutty leftards.  These need not be registered.  You can have unrestricted AR's but for these you need to apply for an endorsed licence and they will be registered.  Similar rules have applied for Pistols for decades.

Sure it's not Texas and we have no ability for concealed carry but you can still get what you want for recreation, hunting and insurance.

Large free shit army and greentaliban presence but who doesn't?

An option to look into folks... 10,000 ZH 'ers moving hear would warm my heart!

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 10:42 | 4301485 nscholten
nscholten's picture

Jim Rogers is now a contrarian indicator. 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 11:03 | 4301539 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

And here are the numbers: Total USA Obligations are more than 200 Trillion:

 


Professor Laurence Kotlikoff: The Inform Act - The True Size Of The American Debt

 Professor Laurence Kotlikoff discusses The Inform Act and the true size of the American Debt. "The country is in the worst shape than Detroit, it is basically bankrupt." China knows it and buys record amount of Gold this year.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/professor-laurence-kotlikoff-inform-...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 11:16 | 4301575 WTF2
WTF2's picture

Rogers has been going downhill since he and Soros split 35 years ago.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 11:41 | 4301591 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

I don't think Rogers has an expansive enough grasp on what's going on, or he's not telling. The fed will of course not collapse. They will sacrifice the whole world before they will let go of power. By 'The Fed' I mean TPTB of which the fed is an arm. Satoshi, I believe, has it mostly right. People like Rogers and Faber just don't seem to see the bigger picture, and so whatever they have to say will be as hit or miss as anything any other pundit or wanna be pundit may come up with. It is useless and dangerous to even listen to them much more so to act on it.

It is essential to grasp the fundamentals. The fundamentals are:

The people in charge will stop at nothing to stay in power. They make the rules and fundamentals or necessity have nothing to do with what happens.They will keep consolidating power by any and all means and will destroy anything and anyone who stands in their way. Chances are they will destroy the planet and everything on it rather than share the vast resources of all types at their disposal, other than what trickles down to the likes of you and me.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 12:15 | 4301690 vincent
vincent's picture

The more time U.S politicians spend fighting amongst themselves, the less time they may have to fuck us over.

Step away, grab a seat and watch the two gangs throw mud, spend gazillions, and destroy one another.

In the meanwhile continue to move away from the blast, and take adavantage of the time you're being handed.

 

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 12:49 | 4301774 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

"When people look back 20 years from now'...

There won't be a 20 years from now.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 16:56 | 4302341 The Econ Ideal
The Econ Ideal's picture

Sounds like Jim is long equity index options and recommending the ironic BTFD/BTFATH. 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:26 | 4302807 Dinero D. Profit
Dinero D. Profit's picture

Everybody is unique as unique can be.  Hence, ~I~ do not advise people.

Let's say you live in Manhattan.  And you are fit, (you and your special other,) and you think the world in general is like the spring on an over-wound clock.

Suddenly, everything goes awry.  The market crashes, banks are closed, the electrical grid is shot, food supply lines are clogged: there are riots, police machine gunnings, lootings, and general mayhem.  The city is quanintined.  You can't get out of Manahattan.

But, you had forsight. 

Over at the Hudson Marina you had get-away locker, consisting of highly prepped and customized  16' Zodiac inflatable with a 25 hp outboard.

 You slip into the Hudson, and head south, siphoning gas along the way, catching fish, eating fowl, rumaging trough deserted beach houses, and generally having the time of your life.  Adrenalin at 200 pissent.

 

  

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:22 | 4303252 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

I'm tired of hearing from this mutt and the little pink bow tie he rode in on.

I don't recall him ever being right about these kinds of claims.

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