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China Services PMI Crumbles To 2nd Worst Level On Record

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Following the missed expectations of the Manufacturing PMIs in China, it appears 'reform' is having the exact slow-growth-inducing credit-creation-dampening effects many had worried about (but dismissed because - well the Fed has out back right?). HSBC's China Services PMI slumped by its most in 8 months to its lowest level since August 2011 (the 2nd worst level since the data began). New business expansion in particular dropped to its lowest level in 6 months and while labor market conditions improved marginally, HSBC - desperate to cling to some silver lining - noted the Composite PMI remains above 50 (phew) - adding "we expect the steady expansion of manufacturing sectors to lend support to service sector growth..." or not. Markets are disappointed...

 

This is also the slowest 'expansion' of Services relative to Manufacturing since April 2011

 

 

It seems JPY and US equities need Bernanke to start talking again very soon!!!

 


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Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:44 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

It's impossible! China is fine... China is not in trouble. Don't be silly... don't move your money.

Cramer said China is recovering and accelerating. US stock market is at an all time high because of strong global economic growth.
_____________________________________________________

And Chanos said:

"You have a credit system gone crazy there. New debt has been running anywhere from 30 to 40 per cent of GDP a year. Think about that for a second...

Their economy is growing 10 per cent nominally, 7.5 per cent real and 2.5 per cent inflation. If you are growing your debt at 35 and your economy is growing 10 a year, that means that new debt is growing 25 percentage points greater than your economy. And using the old rule of 72, that means you double your debt to GDP every three years. So when we started looking at China, total debt in China to GDP was about 100 per cent of GDP. It’s now about 200 per cent...

They don’t know how to change this model and we’ve been talking about it for three years. The problem is it simply the same story. Stick a shovel in the ground, put up another building, another stadium, another railroad…at this point, the returns are minimal. We saw on your newswire (Bloomberg) yesterday, about 50 new international airports being green-lighted in China. And really there’s only room for five or six..."

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:57 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Just one reason why the Chinese people will continue to go crazy over bitcoin and do whatever it takes to get it. They know it's all bullshit the entire house of cards. The leadership knows the peeps know this so they will continue to be scared shitless of bitcoin and jawbone blah, blah, blah.

the yuan as the global reserve currency ha that is a funny one. Christ almighty how many yuan have been/are being printed.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:24 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Even Christ almighty has lost count a long time ago.

And US is heading for another deflationary depression. No matter how much Bernanke prints, how many times Geithner declared US reaching the "escape velocity," the velocity of money is plunging.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV?cid=32242

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:32 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Here's a stimulus plan for China:

Lift ban on game consoles.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/08/will-china-end-its-13-year-game-co...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:43 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Viva la recovery!

The next global meltdown has begun in China & Japan (for different reasons, but begun it has nonetheless).

All the fiat printing in the universe can't stop the train wreck from occurring.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 08:11 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Crumbles.....not sure I like the sound of that.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 08:50 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

I concur.  The velocity of money over the last 2-5 years . . . . . well let's just say there's a very clear trend.  

I think they are being literal.  They are going to print until people completely lose faith in sovereign fiat.  They are tipping you off.  ECB is next with QE.  They are trying to manage it like the drugs for alzheimers.  They don't cure it or fix it they provide a parachute for the inevitable decline down.  

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 05:45 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

ghost.

China scared of bitcoin ? :)

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 07:30 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Perhaps 8?>

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 08:52 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

I agree (I'm jumping the gun on your sarcasm/humor).  China being scared shitless is EXTREMELY bullish for Bitcoin.  

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:19 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Domestic flights in China are unreliable as hell. 50 more international airports are just going to make matters worse. When you pay the vast majority of your people shit for wages, there can't be a miracle economy. Other than the low wage model, China has no story. It worked for a couple decades but that is coming to an end over there.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:44 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The reason China has done so well is because they have a Chinese printing press. The American FED one doesn't work nearly as well. When the nuclear exchange between the US and China takes place they will have brand new cities to move into and the US will have a bunch of neocons crawling out of bunkers all fighting and killing each other for a place to live.

If the US hopes to compete in a global economy those cheap bastards over at the FED better get a faster machine.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 05:22 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

They will team up with the no such agency and pirate everyone's printers in an effort to keep up.

"Look, mom! I went to print out my homework and these twenties came out!"

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 09:54 | Link to Comment hootowl
hootowl's picture

.....a place to live....live???  After a nuclear exchange with China, the lucky folks will already be dead.

The survivors will die slow, agonizing, deaths, in chaos and turmoil, with no medical care or painkillers, or euthanisia, to hasten the end of the suffering.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 04:15 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

They're gonna need a bigger Abacus!!!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

But do they have the balls?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I don't think there's that many balls on the planet.  If they do, it's a calculator(ed) risk.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 05:36 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

You forgot Mark Mobius in the mix. 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Leonardo Fibonacci2
Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

Wall Street tomorrow will not need la Cosa Nostra, it will the Koscher Nostra of the likes of Blankfein et al.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:58 | Link to Comment Four chan
Four chan's picture

so its either record pmi or worst ever, make up your minds legions of chinese number manipulators.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:14 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

The officials can ONLY give good numbers.  It's all the wild-ass-guessers (the kind that you have to pay to get a coin toss) out there that are all over the map.

We KNOW that the US govt and all the "respected" organizations in the US put out shit.  The Chinese have more centralized control, so, yes. the numbers will ALWAYS look above water.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 05:23 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

It is difficult to find good numbers anywhere today.

IMO, we have no real idea with each dotguv massaging numbers.

Only at ZH do I find some real stuff, plus the links Tylers provide. We all know huge prinitng of fiat is no good, none of it is getting to main street, and bank accounts have been looted (Cyprus).

So, even with suspect numbers we know it's bad.

Like Fucko-Shima, no real numbers, but plenty of anecdotal evidence it is bad.

Carry on!

Time once more for the new year, the LC bullet point:

"Run, men! We drilled too deep! She's gonna blow!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:07 | Link to Comment Ryan7
Ryan7's picture

I am a Chinese.

I have to say that the economy in China isn't as good as you guys think. 

It's on the brink. 

Wait and hope.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:36 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

You must learn to master the art of sarcasm.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:12 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Are you saying that you work for the PRC (and therefore have the real inside info)?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:05 | Link to Comment indygo55
indygo55's picture

You know I read all the time how these numbers are totally manipulated and I agree. So the Chinese PMI crashes and the markets are disappointed. Isn't that then what they want?  Isn't that part of the theatre?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:15 | Link to Comment DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Yea, where this is where is gets just comical. The particular report released tonight was the HSBC Services PMI report, as opposed to the official govt numbers everyone across the globe already files under fiction.
So, one of the most illegal and corrupt banks in the world, HSBC, "money launderers of the drug cartels" is supposed to compline this services PMI report, amongst others, and we are supposed to have more faith in HSBC's nums than the Chinese govt official report.
Personally, I think BOTH of the numbers are total bullshit.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"BOTH of the numbers are total bullshit."

There, simplified it!

Really, 10% YoY growth was to last forever.  And then it was 7% YoY.  At those rates it was always a certainty that they'd crack sooner rather than later.  And as an exporter to a world where everyone else is either in recession or depression? (and not be exporting essential commodities?)

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 04:20 | Link to Comment thestarl
thestarl's picture

Agreed Seer, I work in the mining industry in Oz, to be more exact an underground met coal producing in excess of 3mtpa of premium coking coal.The previous CEO of the company Marius Kloppers was banging on about Chinese growth rates in the double digits as far as the eye could see.

This same prick who in my opinion was a complete fuck up walked away last year with some mind astounding severance package north of 40 million usd makes the above stupid bullshit forecast, man you know this thing is going down,who knows how long they can keep the game going?

We do know that the one percent have hedged their bets with property purchases every fucking where but I believe in karma and those dogs hopefully will someday face retribution.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:11 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Does this mean Ann Margret is not coming to Shanghai?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpO0OV4mfvo

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:10 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

You'll know it's bad when China starts buying made-in-Germany worker safety nets for the worker dorms to "protect" the line workers.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:11 | Link to Comment SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

OMG so bullish!  Can't wait to go long the DJIA tomorrow ha jk.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:12 | Link to Comment MrSprottJr
MrSprottJr's picture

I am NOT Chinese.

I have to say the economy in China is as good as GOLD!!!

It's like a BRINKS

Wait and See!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:24 | Link to Comment RagnarDanneskjold
RagnarDanneskjold's picture

Cash crunches, are like, not good for the economy man!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:23 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

b...bullish?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:27 | Link to Comment Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

BUY STOCKS BITCHEZ

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Buy, Buy, Buy you American Imperialists Dogs or its bye bye to Stawks. You sell Stawks and buy made in China. Money made round to go round you silly round eye

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:35 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

haha and these f*cking idiots at the Fed don't know how their Wall Street money printing works!  China will liquidate their holdings rates will spike, once Yelland takes the chalice we will have to see if she can muster a trillion a week.  While she loses control of the curve and $...and stocks.

2014 stockpile that popcorn

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:58 | Link to Comment Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Something like that.  In the meantime I'm thinking stocks will fall 10% - 20% worldwide.

Gold to $1300 by the end of the month too.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:04 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

We are due for a major sell off, I am looking for a free-fall on the USD which the Fed won't want, Asia will just dump.  Interesting to see if Bitcoin and Gold rally in tandem. 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I think if dumping starts then it's all over in a matter of a day or two (like in the movie Rollover).  And if it goes that fast the door shuts on Bitcoin for trade; gold is already out there.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:49 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Fed has to keep yields on the 10 & 30 year from rising further, which they'll fail to do (it's nearly an impossible task given what's happening globally).

We're about to see the damage that 5 years of asinine central bank radical interventionism that broke all markets has wrought.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:01 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Definitely.  And to think Bernanke who is 100% responsible for the upcoming chaos is about to leave the ship.   Yelland will lose control of everything and she'll get the blame. 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

White haired old white women will be taking the fall with LaGarde and Yellen at the helms.  Hopefully Greenspan and Bernanke get chased through the streets as well.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:55 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Rollover nailed it.  It was about a middle east crisis right and Arabs were liquidating?  Can't remember.  Asia can liquidate and you'll have that panic, I think Bitcoin could be shutdown easily, physical gold can't.  China has been stockpiling.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 04:22 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Remember Rollover was made back in 1981 when the Arabs held a substantial amount of US Treasuries and bank deposits.  This is now 2014, what happens if China starts dumping theirs on the market en mass?  Similar to when the Arabs were to withdraw their funds from US banks.  Similar in effect.  Both will cause a run, and flood the market with US dollars.  Both these are hypothetical but eventually that swan will land one day.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 07:43 | Link to Comment More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

My father, a wise man RIP, used to say that when the shit hits the fan there is not enough money in the world to stop it. Its too big.  I took that as mantra my whole life.  But now, nothing matters any more.  So China wants to dump a few trillion, big whoop, there is no market to affect. Just an electronic backstop bid that never goes away until the tide rolls out.  Its all a waste of time.  Im goin fishing

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:39 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

And on and on it goes. Tyler, this might interest our readers.

I'm Suing Over ObamaCare Exemptions for Congress WSJ Senator Johnson, Wi.
Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:57 | Link to Comment Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Maybe Bernanke can get a jon at the PBoC.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:10 | Link to Comment Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

I meant to write "job" but jon works better.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 04:24 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

If it's over at the PBoC, he'll more than likely get a Dong instead.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:56 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

It took 17 days to get freight to the east coast from Shanghai. At least the last couple of shipments. It use to take 30.

 

It's never been that fast. Something is going on.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:20 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Law of averages.

Slow boat TO china.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 03:36 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Nothing, or not much, is going on.
That's the problem.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 08:28 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Less freight = lighter boat = faster boat.

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:58 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Given the slow Christmas sales in the US you can expect a slowdown in China as US retailers are not interested in stocking up on anything. this ripples thru the whole Chinese economy. Don't expect much help from EU or Jap consumers. Add in US housing slowing down.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:23 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Yup.  Exporters are in trouble, especially those whose main exports are not essential commodities (got phys?).

"Add in US housing slowing down."  Actually, the recent ZH article by Brian Pretti (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-05/brian-pretti-worlds-capital-now...) tends to suggest that there's still lots of gas in the tank for money dumping into US real estate (and elsewhere, outside of China).

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Calm down, it's only HSBC's PMI.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:27 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Everything's relative.  China's economy and debt to productive capacity is still significantly better than that of the United States.

They might just start selling some of those treasuries to fill some gaps.... sometimes taking a loss is the best move, eh?

Most of China's debt is held by corps, not the government - they're in a much better position than the US, so the bad numbers are not quite the same kind of bad.

I think John Williams is probably right about hyperinflation finally hitting, but for what little its worth, I think you could start seeing it much earlier than he does. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:07 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"China's economy and debt to productive capacity is still significantly better than that of the United States."

Productive capacity is one thing, actual utilization is another.  And, as I mentioned before, slumping world export markets is not a good thing for a country highly dependent on exports.

"Most of China's debt is held by corps, not the government"

Are those corps GSEs?  Anyone thinking that if they faulter the Chinese govt WON'T step in and bail?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:16 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Yeah, solid point, but *if* they bail, will that be in the form of borrowing or selling off, at least in part, a healthy amount of treasuries? 

 

I don't think they'll be able to, or want to keep the yuan down for much longer and may figure a short term hit to exports is worth it to further erode the dollars reserve status - I think they are thinking longer term... but I'm certainly open to arguments to the contrary.

 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:28 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"I don't think they'll be able to, or want to keep the yuan down for much longer and may figure a short term hit to exports is worth it to further erode the dollars reserve status"

I suspect you're right.  And consider that they're looking to entice internal consumption.  A stronger yuan means that the good stuff for importation is more readily available: especially energy-related, which then helps fuel things for consumption.

"but *if* they bail, will that be in the form of borrowing or selling off, at least in part, a healthy amount of treasuries? "

I think that once a run out of USDs happens that it'll be over in a flash, in some fashion similar to Nixon closing the window on the gold standard (only there's nothing to close on, and no window, but something will happen).  I'm thinking that folks know that any significant moves will result in some abrupt end.

The following is from 2012.  It's possible...

The policy tool PBOC has when China’s economy gets really bad

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/the-policy-tool-pboc-has-when-c...

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, was quoted two days ago saying that the PBOC will not rule out any possible monetary policy tools at their disposal (via China Securities Journal).

Zhou Xiaochuan was asked about future policy in the context of massive liquidity injection through reverse repo operations. The market has been hoping for some a cut of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) almost every week now, so the lack of RRR cut together with continuous reverse repo operations leave some wondering if RRR is no longer a preferred tools.

Governor Zhou said no tools will be ruled out.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 02:28 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

 - good stuff, Seer.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 07:33 | Link to Comment thestarl
thestarl's picture

Yep

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 06:55 | Link to Comment hootowl
hootowl's picture

If China begins selling treasuries in any significant way, they will severely devalue their remaining reserves.  When/If that begins, treasuries will drop like a rock.

Who the hell would be the buyers?.....The Fed?.....with more phony fiat?

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 00:31 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Prices too high. Need to curb speculation and cut liquidity. Credit crunch, prices dropping. Need to open the floodgates.

That's all there is to know when you're a central banker anywhere in the world.

Everything is completely bonkers and out of whack. Mutli billionaires my ass. Their entire wealth is nothing but loot and earned of the backs of everyone else. Just add youselves a few zeros to your personal assets and sleep better. It really is all just bullshit. For fuck's sake go and pay with the toilet paper from your morning's dump and feel rich. It doesn't make a difference. The super rich still put their pants on one leg at a time and they breathe, eat, drink and shit the same as everyone else. They have discovered that they can print themselves infinite wealth with a paper medium of exchange that we all have to accept. Tell you what, stop accepting the paper. Stop accepting and trading in their paper. Go rogue and find alternative mediums of exchange. Bitcoin, barter, gold and silver, whatever. Stop paying taxes to the government that is just established to serve and protect the elite's status quo.

Disengage and disobey.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 06:46 | Link to Comment hootowl
hootowl's picture

Starve The Beast.  taxpayers are useful idiots who are financing the destruction of themselves, their families, and their nation.  The first duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.

Grow a pair.  Join the underground economy.  It the only real economy we have.

 

Starve The Beast.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:14 | Link to Comment W74
W74's picture

One wonders if that peak at 60 was just a series of lies that simply could no longer be covered for.  Then of course one has to wonder if it's still being maintained on a (forced to) smaller scale.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:14 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, I figure there's a lot of channel stuffing going on (just like in the U.S.).

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 01:35 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Nobody wants that Chinese junk. Americans can build better stuff from the treasures they find while dumpster diving.

Long live the revolution.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 03:02 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

OOOPS.

Not good for YUM or Starbucks.

What if all these central banks, in China, U.S., ECB, Japan - just keep printing trillions from nothing?

If none of them sell the others out and all continue the game, this could go on for another five years.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 03:35 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

At least 5, prolly longer.
Very likely scenario, IMO.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 03:03 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

Fukushima Meltdowns: A Global Conspiracy of Denial:

http://rinf.com/alt-news/breaking-news/fukushima-meltdowns-a-global-cons...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 04:20 | Link to Comment syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

GDP growth will still be 7.50000%, exactly.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 06:11 | Link to Comment Zero-risk bias
Zero-risk bias's picture

No, seriously, all economic health indicators are green. You can rest assured. Now go shopping.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 05:29 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

All the real or paper growth in the world will mean nothing unless the growth on the consumer side is sustainable and unless the growth on the business/investment side actually pays a decent return.

Building an airport will add to GDP in the first instance but will then become a drag on growth if it cannot cover its interest expense, running expenses and leave a profit as well.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 06:10 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

MOAR GONG SHOW PULEEZE!!!!!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 06:48 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Growth is a little tweeting bird chirping in meadow. PMI is a wreath of pretty flowers which smell BAD...

Everything Harry tells you is a lie. Remember that. Everything Harry tells you is a lie...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

I am not programmed to respond in that area.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 06:51 | Link to Comment Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

communist safe haven

 

here's the assumption - reported data is factual

 

HSBC is the bank of choice for drug dealers and money launderers

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!