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Precious Metals In 2014

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

It's that time of year again; when we must turn our thoughts to the dangers and opportunities of the coming year. They are considerable and multi-faceted, but instead of being drawn into the futility of making forecasts I will only offer readers the barest of basics and focus on the corruption of currencies. My conclusion is the overwhelming danger is of currency destruction and that gold is central to their downfall.

As we enter 2014 mainstream economists relying on inaccurate statistics, many of which are not even relevant to a true understanding of our economic condition, seem convinced that the crises of recent years are now laid to rest. They swallow the line that unemployment is dropping to six or seven per cent, and that price inflation is subdued; but a deeper examination, unsubtly exposed by the work of John Williams of Shadowstats.com, shows these statistics to be false.

If we objectively assess the state of the labour markets in most welfare-driven economies the truth conforms to a continuing slump; and if we take a realistic view of price increases, including capital assets, price inflation may even be in double figures. The corruption of price inflation statistics in turn makes a mockery of GDP numbers, which realistically adjusted for price inflation are contracting.

This gloomy conclusion should come as no surprise to thoughtful souls in any era. These conditions are the logical outcome of the corruption of currencies. I have no doubt that if in 1920-23 the Weimar Republic used today's statistical methodology government economists would be peddling the same conclusions as those of today. The error is to believe that expansion of money quantities is a cure-all for economic ills, and ignore the fact that it is actually a tax on the vast majority of people reducing both their earnings and savings.

This is the effect of unsound money, and with this in mind I devised a new monetary statistic in 2013 to quantify the drift away from sound money towards an increasing possibility of monetary collapse. The Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ) is constructed by taking account of all the steps by which gold, as proxy for sound money, has been absorbed over the last 170 years from private ownership by commercial banks and then subsequently by central banks, all rights of gold ownership being replaced by currency notes and deposits. The result for the US dollar, which as the world's reserve currency is today's gold's substitute, is shown in Chart 1.

Chart1FMQ 311213

The graphic similarities with expansions of currency quantities in the past that have ultimately resulted in monetary and financial destruction are striking. Since the Lehman crisis the US authorities have embarked on their monetary cure-all to an extraordinary degree. We are being encouraged to think that the Fed saved the world in 2008 by quantitative easing, when the crisis has only been concealed by currency hyper-inflation.

Are we likely to collectively recognise this error and reverse it before it is too late? So long as the primary function of central banks is to preserve the current financial system the answer has to be no. An attempt to reduce the growth rate in the FMQ by minimal tapering has already raised bond market yields considerably, threatening to derail monetary policy objectives. The effect of rising bond yields and term interest rates on the enormous sums of government and private sector debt is bound to increase the risk of bankruptcies at lower rates compared with past credit cycles, starting in the countries where the debt problem is most acute.

With banks naturally reluctant to take on more lending-risk in this environment, rising interest rates and bond yields can be expected to lead to contracting bank credit. Does the Fed stand aside and let nature take its course? Again the answer has to be no. It must accelerate its injections of raw money and grow deposits on its own balance sheet to compensate. The underlying condition that is not generally understood is actually as follows:

The assumption that the Fed is feeding excess money into the economy to stimulate it is incorrect.
Individuals, businesses and banks require increasing quantities of money just to stand still and to avoid a second debt crisis.

I have laid down the theoretical reasons why this is so by showing that welfare-driven economies, fully encumbered by debt, through false employment and price-inflation statistics are concealing a depressive slump. An unbiased and informed analysis of nearly all currency collapses shows that far from being the product of deliberate government policy, they are the result of loss of control over events, or currency inflation beyond their control. I expect this to become more obvious to markets in the coming months.

Gold's important role

Gold has become undervalued relative to fiat currencies such as the US dollar, as shown in the chart below, which rebases gold at 100 adjusted for both the increase in above-ground gold stocks and US dollar FMQ since the month before the Lehman Crisis.

gold adjusted 311213

Given the continuation of the statistically-concealed economic slump, plus the increased quantity of dollar-denominated debt, and therefore since the Lehman Crisis a growing probability of a currency collapse, there is a growing case to suggest that gold should be significantly higher in corrected terms today. Instead it stands at a discount of 36%.

This undervaluation is likely to lead to two important consequences.

Firstly, when the tide for gold turns it should do so very strongly, with potentially catastrophic results for uncovered paper markets. The last time this happened to my knowledge was in September 1999, when central banks led by the Bank of England and the Fed rescued the London gold market, presumably by making bullion available to distressed banks. The scale of gold's current undervaluation and the degree to which available monetary gold has been depleted suggests that a similar rescue of the gold market cannot be mounted today.

The second consequence is to my knowledge not yet being considered at all. The speed with which fiat currencies could lose their purchasing power might be considerably more rapid than, say, the collapse of the German mark in 1920-23. The reason this may be so is that once the slide in confidence commences, there is little to slow its pace.

In his treatise "Stabilisation of the Monetary Unit – From the Viewpoint of Monetary Theory" written in January 1923, Ludwig von Mises made clear that "speculators actually provide the strongest support for the position of notes (marks) as money". He argued that considerable quantities of marks were acquired abroad in the post-war years "precisely because a future rally in the mark's exchange rate was expected. If these sums had not been attracted abroad they would have necessarily led to an even steeper rise in prices on the domestic market".

At that time other currencies, particularly the US dollar, were freely exchangeable with gold, so foreign speculators were effectively selling gold to buy marks they believed to be undervalued. Today the situation is radically different, because Western speculators have sold nearly all the gold they own, and if you include the liquidation of gold paper unbacked by physical metal, in a crisis they will be net buyers of gold and sellers of currencies. Therefore it stands to reason that gold is central to a future currency crisis and that when it happens it is likely to be considerably more rapid than the Weimar experience.

I therefore come to two conclusions for 2014: that we are heading towards a second and unexpected financial and currency crisis which can happen at any time, and that the lack of gold ownership in welfare-driven economies is set to accelerate the rate at which a collapse in purchasing power may occur.

 

 

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Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:25 | 4302413 greased up deaf guy
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PMs, bitches!!!

that felt good. hehe...

happy new year, all.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:26 | 4302421 BaBaBouy
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OT

 

Kim Jong Un ‘fed uncle to pack of 120 ravenous dogs’ By Sean Piccoli and Post Wire Report January 3, 2014 | 11:19am

The uncle of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was ripped to pieces by a pack of starving dogs in a slow, barbaric execution that Kim himself watched, an official Chinese newspaper reported.

Jang Song Thaek, the 67-year-old family member once considered Kim’s right-hand man, died horribly with five other condemned officials in a capital punishment ritual called “quan jue”— execution by dogs, according to the Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Po, a mouthpiece for China’s government.

The ghastly account of Jeng’s execution could not be independently verified, but its publication in an official Chinese daily signaled Beijing’s growing disgust with Kim, according to a Singapore daily, the Straits Times, which suggested the Chinese might have leaked the gory tale to further embarrass and marginalize Pyongyang’s reigning madman.

Modal Trigger

Kim Jong UnPhoto: AFP/Getty Images

Quan jue is reserved for North Korea’s most hated enemies— and for those occasions when a simple firing squad doesn’t send a strong enough message, according to the Chinese newspaper.

Jang was stripped naked before and literally fed to the dogs as Kim and hundreds of North Korean officials watched, Wen Wei Po reported. The 120 animals, deliberately starved beforehand, spent more than an hour devouring their six victims, the newspaper reported.

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:29 | 4302433 PontifexMaximus
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Has ralston purina already signed a cantract with comi. payable to a Delaware company?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:48 | 4302488 oddjob
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The Eagles wil sign him first.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:03 | 4302531 maskone909
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+1 lmfao

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:05 | 4302540 Boris Alatovkrap
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Typically communism...

In South Korea, you are eat dog. In North Korea, dog is eat YOU!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:08 | 4302751 SRSrocco
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WHERE IS THE PRICE OF SILVER HEADED IN 2014?

THE BIG QUESTION: Where Is The Price Of Silver Headed In 2014?


I believe the FED & Member Banks would be too stupid to force the price of gold and silver below the cost of primary mine production for an extended period.  According to my analysis, the estimated Q3 2013 break-even for the top 12 primary silver miners is $21.39.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:25 | 4302805 quasimodo
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As always appreiate this site, not the typical puff piece I see so prevelant elsewhere screaming 

"moonshot we r all gonna beez rich!" bullshit.

That said, I still tend to stay rooted in the mindset metals won't budge much until it's decided they can't control the shenanigans any longer........sure feels like we are close to that point. 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:27 | 4302822 artytom
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Yes, that's primary silver miners. The problem is often that other mining organisations produce silver as a by product and sell it at hedge values to support the production of other metals from their mines. As long as the mines contine to hedge their silver, the Comex have a lot of power.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:55 | 4302883 SRSrocco
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artytom,

While it is true that the base metal miners do hedge some of their silver, I can tell you that with the price of silver now in the $20 range, many companies have dropped their hedging strategy.

For example, KGHM Polska Miedz is the largest by-product silver producer in the world.  KGHM Polska is a large copper miner in Poland that produces about 40 million oz of silver a year .  According to their quarterly reports, KGHM had 6,300 contracts of silver hedged in Q3 2012.  However, from their most recent Q3 2013 report, total silver hedge book is now a BIG PHAT ZERO.

They have totally removed all of their silver hedges.

steve

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:49 | 4302489 BaBaBouy
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I Wonder.?.Is Rawdman Gonna Visit NK For Another Million???

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:04 | 4302550 Boris Alatovkrap
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Next black ameriKan athlete visit is Michael Vick, maybe learn dog training tip.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:44 | 4302680 Motorhead
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LMAO!!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 21:59 | 4303190 StormShadow
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Oppam Canine style!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:34 | 4302434 jbvtme
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pass

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:36 | 4302460 PeakOil
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Meh - doubtful. Still, don't doubt that his uncle was executed.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/01/03/259386090/did-kim-jong-un...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:49 | 4302495 akak
akak's picture

 

The uncle of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was ripped to pieces by a pack of starving dogs in a slow, barbaric execution that Kim himself watched

And the latest headline of the Korean Daily Canine:

"REVENGE AT LAST!"

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:53 | 4302515 gonetogalt
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Uncle Jang and associates actually got what they deserved, pretty uncommon for any government official nowadays. Now if the rest of the NK party cadre could go into the dog pit, Kim Jong Un to go last.  Millions tortured to death on their watch, this is karmic justice.  

Oh, and feed'em Ben for dessert?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:02 | 4302535 buzzsaw99
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i can think of 537 others more deserving than he.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 20:04 | 4302914 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

I might differ at about 512 plus or minus, but lets not be dogged about it. Does Kibbels have a congressional lobyist flavor?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:08 | 4304104 drendebe10
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Dont forget to include the arrogant, narcissist, lying illegal alien kenyan muslum in there as well..

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:46 | 4302688 Atlantis Consigliore
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Yr yr yr yr honour,  im a scumbag lian thieving enabler of North Korea,  did they at least get him a liar, (lawyer) and read his rights;

no, ok, LETS SELL HIM ANOTHER 50 MILLION BARRELS OF HEATING OIL,  and build some repo houses for him,  

btw  how Fellugia going?   what/???

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:33 | 4306748 NickVegas
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Pictures or it didn't happen.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:30 | 4302414 BaBaBouy
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.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:37 | 4302456 logicalman
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The US kills people over the course of years in Guantanamo.

Just saying.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:26 | 4302420 TeamDepends
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My advice to you is to go all in.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:36 | 4302451 Winston Churchill
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Gold or dogs ?

I think one more gold takedown this coming week , for psychology reasons , then in

50% gold , 50% assorted currencies in cash under the mattress.

Still not convinced we will not get deflation before hyperinflation.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:44 | 4302692 Motorhead
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Methinks gold is going further down...not that I want it to, but gold & silver are fucked up right now, and until the trend reverses, then they've got more room to fall, IMO.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 21:59 | 4303189 BlackChicken
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I think the metals could continue showing strength until the correction begins, then they are likely to decline with equities.

However, if the correction gets ugly, we could easily see this turn into a no-bid crash. That is when metals will have their day; when the naked Emperor appears.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:01 | 4303194 StormShadow
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Harry Dent sure thinks so.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:29 | 4302429 buzzsaw99
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gold is suffering the same malady as treasurys. hot money was chasing it but now money is coming out to chase bullshit stocks higher.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:28 | 4302825 akak
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He who laughs last, stacks best.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 04:14 | 4303797 Theosebes Goodfellow
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He who laughs last slow on uptake.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:30 | 4302438 Greenskeeper_Carl
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not gonna be the least bit mad if it stays down around leave levels for a while. I am in it long term, and will be happy to keep picking it up at these prices. As this shit show economy continues to unravel, those who didnt at least buy a little for insurance will regret it. Or, fuck it, ill get me some of that twitter instead...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:08 | 4303204 StormShadow
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Paper gold price and physical price are already disconnecting albeit in a very chaotic, inconsistent manner. When they finally shear from one another it will be like tectonic plates shifting and they'll never rejoin again. That's why you hold physical for insurance and ignore the paper price.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:33 | 4302448 dbTX
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The Eagles are landing !

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:39 | 4302455 s-logic
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"but a deeper examination, unsubtly exposed by the work of John Williams of Shadowstats.com, shows these statistics to be false"

you know what's so funny about shadowstats? John Williams argues for inflation not reflected in the official numbers, but AS A SUBSCRIBER I PAID $89 FOR 6-MONTH SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTION IN 2010 AND I STILL PAY THE SAME PRICE FOR IT!!! Sort of confirms the FED's view of inflation, doesn't it?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:37 | 4302858 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Are you familiar with the expression "Too clever by half."?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:34 | 4302458 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

gold to a dollar an ounce. move along...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:47 | 4302472 JustObserving
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If the NSA can solve the problem of spying on everyone in this world with its alledged budget of $75 billion a year, the Fed can control a few precious metal markets given its infinite resources.

Markets can be manipulated much longer than most think especially in a fascist, police state.

Which market is a free market in the land of the free?

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:03 | 4302546 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

I'm sure TPTB can set the price of gold to pretty much any number ... the proof of the pudding will happen when enough people become no longer willing to exchange physical for FRNs at the "spot" price.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:10 | 4303211 StormShadow
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Already happening

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:46 | 4302482 Sufiy
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Jesse: COMEX Gold Registered Inventory Potential Claims Still Historically High 80 to 1

Jesse reports that COMEX is still leveraged at the record levels of 80 owners per one oz of Gold. Next week will be very important for Gold market. The move above $1260 will bring more short covering and will bring more confirmation on Double Bottom retested in 2013 at $1180 level.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/jesse-comex-gold-registered-inventor...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:55 | 4302506 buzzsaw99
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let's hope his double bottom is better than his cups and handles. :snark:

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:50 | 4302494 ebworthen
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Yet another chart showing the disastrous consequences since the 1972 Nixon unhinging of the Gold Standard (chart one).

Chart two shows a 36% discount on Gold since 2008, but combine the two charts and Gold is at a 936% discount.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 17:55 | 4302507 Acidtest Dummy
Acidtest Dummy's picture

I predict that Au will continue to glom into ever larger lumps, the lighter elements will continue to facilitate gold's lumping nature. So, in terms of investing advice: don't stand in Au's way!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:14 | 4302578 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

my fucking finger smells

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:14 | 4302580 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

They keep puutin' 'em on sale and I keep buyin'!  Love a good sale.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:35 | 4302658 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Why are small miners not performing in light of all of the supposed demand for PM's.............?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 20:13 | 4302929 noob
noob's picture

free money?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:09 | 4303207 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

At these Bargain Paper Prices the Small Miners cannot afford to produce. Thus they have no product ready to sell. Thus they show NO PROFITS...NO REVENUES.

 

LBMA Gold Inventories are exhausted and CME Group is following close behind. (I want to see Jeff Christian's face behind bars as the pyschopathic cunt which he is..) 

 

Kind of like investing in Facebook or Twitter...No revenues to support a Stock Price.

 

The exception with that is that the people invested into Facebook and Twitter are fucking Birdbrains.

 

IF ANY COMPANY IS NOT PRODUCING REVENUES THEN IT HAS NO INVESTMENT VALUE...One can speculate and gamble on greater fools, I guess.

 

The Small Miners will be squeezed out before the next up leg. Then you will see one large upside correction in the price of Gold.

 

Before you retort something as Gold does not produce...neither do US Dollars when Buried.

 

Before you retort that Gold has no industrial utility I will respond that it serves the World Financial Industry as it has been doing for the past 5000 to 6000 years. Thus it is an INDUSTRIAL METAL as it serves as MONEY.

 

The USA is about 5% of the World when considering Population. Since 95% of the World's population values and desires Gold I do not believe that I will have too much problem trading it for something else of value WHEN the shit hits the fan.

 

It is the best Insurance Policy as it is a DIRECT BET AGAINST THE US GOVERNMENT, and its CURRENCY, the US DOLLAR.

 

Fuck the Government, fuck the Federal Reserve, Fuck the NSA, and Starve the BeAST.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:45 | 4302684 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

But, just say NO to the wankers on King World News.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 18:50 | 4302708 drinkin koolaid
drinkin koolaid's picture

Amen

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:21 | 4302796 ArrestBobRubin
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Who are the worst offenders in your opinion? Eric himself has such an inflated ego he still doesn't get that he should moderate the cheerleading and hyperbole.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:11 | 4302776 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

How many 1's and O's does it take to short gold?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:15 | 4302781 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Tyler makes sure to cater to the bitcoin bozos and the goldbugs.  More clicks dat way!

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:24 | 4302813 ArrestBobRubin
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Even Bozo got a QR code and is taking BTC.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:30 | 4302823 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Gold going up is good because I can sell. Gold going down is good because I can buy. Going sideways is bad because I can do neither.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:29 | 4302830 Magnum
Magnum's picture

I wonder if King World News will promote buying gold and silver this year?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:42 | 4302869 Tinky
Tinky's picture

For future reference, applying sarcasm with such a remarkably subtle touch carries with it the risk of confusing some readers.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 20:16 | 4302930 noob
noob's picture

free money?

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 21:51 | 4303165 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

I believe for 2014 the meme from KWN is to go long on broken records and the movie Groundhog Day ...

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:07 | 4303214 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Yea and do you think maybe the MSM will be trashing gold this year?  The majority of people have already made up their minds about any given subject before reading an article on that subject.  It's called bias and somehow it looks like you have taken your side without questioning it.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 19:36 | 4302855 22winmag
22winmag's picture

I buy PMs as long term investments.

 

I buy cans of beans and ammo as short term investments.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 21:19 | 4303073 gherman
gherman's picture

http://www.netagio.com/

At Netagio, we are passionate about digital currencies and the role we anticipate them playing in the future. We aim to make it easy and secure to buy and store these currencies.

We are based in London in the United Kingdom and are wholly owned by GoldMoney Network Limited.

GoldMoney Network Limited is also the holding company of GoldMoney, a leading precious metals trading company that was established in 2001. With over 12 years’ online experience in helping their customers buy, sell and store gold and silver, GoldMoney has accumulated a wealth of experience in online trading, which Netagio is now drawing upon for digital currencies.

 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 21:51 | 4303175 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Go Fuck Yourself, your pathetic Ad, and your digital bullshit fucking money scam !
Fucking parasites, I wouldn't piss in your mouth if your guts were on fire.
Good Day chap !

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:20 | 4303236 gherman
gherman's picture

It's not spam, I am unaffiliated with the site, but it's relevant to the discussion: that is Alasdair Macleod's crypto-currency exchange.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:18 | 4303975 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

Your original post was easily and reasonably interpreted as an ad.  We get alot of them here, and many of us are tired of the abuse of these boards for such things. 

I see you're new here.  Sorry you had crap thrown in your face over a misunderstanding. 

Keep coming back. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:35 | 4304189 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

It is obviously and definitely spam. Period.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 09:01 | 4303979 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

I hope you are only that recklessly hasty behind a keyboard. 

Acting that way in the real world would shorten your stay on this globe. 

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 22:26 | 4303261 devo
devo's picture

Author, what makes you say that gold is undervalued if it's selling 10-15% above cost of prodution? That is a low margin, but not necessarily screaming undervalued since we know many commodities can trade below COP.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:36 | 4304181 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

If you look at the relationship between the amount of fiat paper in circulation compared to the amount of gold, then gold is massively undervalued, which is not unintentional.

Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:05 | 4303367 Paul Thomason
Sun, 01/05/2014 - 23:56 | 4303495 devo
devo's picture

Just caputiulate to 1050 already so we can resume the bull.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 07:42 | 4303917 Dr. Destructo
Dr. Destructo's picture

2014 is a good year to invest in the Spanish language and a one-way plane ticket.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 10:31 | 4304173 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

I do not want to be a "gringo" in a foreign land when the SHTF. Thanks anyway and good luck.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!