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S&P At 2,200, 4% On The 10 Year, WTI Over $110 And Bitcoin At $0 - Byron Wien's 2014 Predictions

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The predictions of Blackstone's octogenarian Byron Wien (born in 1933) have been all over the place in the past 10 years, some correct, most wrong (with a recent hit rate of about 25%) - his 2013 year end S&P forecast was for 1300 - yet always entertaining. Which is the only value in the latest release of his 10 forecasts for 2014. Naturally, take all of these with a salt mine.

Byron’s Ten Surprises of 2014 are as follows:

  1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 approaches a 20% total return by year end (ZH: or, said otherwise, S&P 500 at 2200).
  2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.
  3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.
  4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don’t matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.
  5. China’s Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.
  6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.
  7. In spite of increased U.S. production the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.
  8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.
  9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.
  10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished and younger people begin signing up. Obama's approval rating rises and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

Also rans:

  1. Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Chris Christie and the moderates fade in popularity as momentum builds for fiscal and social conservative policies.
  2. In 2½ years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold’s position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.
  3. Overcoming objections from the Cuban exile community, President Obama opens discussions on initiating trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba. A reduction in sanctions is proposed, as well as limited financial support in the form of bonds, quickly dubbed as “Castro convertibles.”
  4. Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016. She says her work with various Clinton non-for-profit initiatives is important and unfinished. Specifically, she explains that her health was not an issue in her decision. The Democratic race for the top seat becomes chaotic.

* * *

Good luck Byron

And as a reminder, from a year ago here are Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2013, where he got exactly 0 out of 10 correct.

  1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.
  2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.
  3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.
  4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.
  5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.
  6. The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.
  7. Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.
  8. Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.
  9. The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world’s third largest economy.
  10. The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.
 


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Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

What an ass-hat!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:33 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

Here is a lot of asshatism for ya.

Canadian Medical Association Journal Blasts Japanese Government: "Culture of Coverup" Exposing Japanese Citizens to "Unconscionable" Radiation Risk:

http://mr-absentia.soup.io/post/385488541/Canadian-Medical-Association-J...

Skeena Sockeye Fishery Closed Due to Low Returns:
http://ospreysteelheadnews.blogspot.com/...ue-to.html

Sockeye Fisheries Closed Following Historic Lows In Skeena River, B.C.:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/12/...44088.html

(SitNews) Thorne Bay, Alaska – Due to a low sockeye return, the US Forest Service Thorne Bay District Ranger is acting immediately to protect sockeye salmon in the Hatchery Creek drainage on Prince of Wales Island:
http://www.sitnews.us/0613News/062713/06...losed.html

Diseased Alaska seals tested for radiation:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/animal-ri...1#msg54931

"There was not one of the 28 days on that portion of the trip when we didn't catch a good-sized fish to cook up and eat with some rice," Macfadyen recalled. But this time, on that whole long leg of sea journey, the total catch was two. No fish. No birds. Hardly a sign of life at all.":
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/184843...is-broken/

Dead Sea Creatures Cover 98% of Ocean Floor Off California Coast; Up From 1% before Fukushima:

http://thedailyblogreport.wordpress.com/2014/01/05/dead-sea-creatures-co...

Japanese Senator: “The Path That Japan Is Taking Is The Recreation Of A Fascist State”

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/11/fukushima-radiation-will-hit-fish...

Japanese cars banned in Russia:

http://japandailypress.com/russia-bans-1...n-0641885/

Japanese Government Raises Severity Rating of Fukushima Leak:

http://ifclmedia.com/feeds/?p=9579

 

BIG RADIATION COVERAGE ON THE ALEX JONES SHOW RIGHT NOW!!!

http://www.infowars.com/listen-on-the-internet/

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:39 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

BitCoyn ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:46 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Japan ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:55 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dickensian?

More like DicKeynesian, amirite?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:10 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

The Bernank ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:15 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

O-BoiMaCare 2014 ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Byron Wein ... Barbarous Relic

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:19 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Old CEO, clinging to an OLD economy, OLD financial system, OLD statistics.  This guy and all the others who built their fortune on the USD sand dunes will always publish garbage like this, saying unemployment will fall, production pick up, health care will have a "remarkable" turnaround.  Because if the system changes and gets valued at what it really should be valued at, all the big boys are royally screwed.  Did you honestly think he'd publish anything different than peaches and slavery?

Just talking his book.  Means nothing to the Paradigm Shift in progress.

 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:36 | Link to Comment BTFDemocracy
BTFDemocracy's picture

This is his 'wishes', not predictions.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:37 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Of course, Byron's prediction of $1900 gold may very well way under-estimate its price if FOFOA's "Year of the Rains" winds up coming true...

Buy gold!  Buy Bitcoin, and then buy some gold with it!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:23 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, we'll see Byron (a Bitcoin is now running around $925 - $1000 each, wildly volatile now).  I doubt that Bitcoin is going away.  Another fellow who knows the BTC Ecosystem has also contributed information about the Blockchain, a vital piecfe of infrastructure of the BTC Ecosystem.

Sounds boring, right?  https://blockchain.info/ has lots of interesting images that help you iunderstand what is going on.  Some are pretty cool to look at.

"Fun with Bitcoin for Beginners: Part Six: The Blockchain"

http://tinyurl.com/l7qwsek

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:31 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

That's right DoChen..... Bitcoin is the kind of fad that comes around every 5,000 years and stays for good.  Bitcoin is the permatrend.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:42 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You replied too quickly, before I could clean up my typos...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:35 | Link to Comment TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

While I don't like bitcoin at all I have to agree it isn't going away anytime very soon.  It will likely prove too useful to TPTB.  The fact that they have only gone after individuals and exchanges and not the thing itself says a lot to me (especially knowing the necessary underlying technologies).

To be clear, I don't hope you are wrong.  I fear I am right.

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 03:04 | Link to Comment Saro
Saro's picture

Going after the entry and exit points to and from the mainstream financial system (which they control) is literally their only option.  The Bitcoin network itself is beyond their control.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:42 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Blockchain.info is a great resource. They provide a websocket stream of the blockchain which makes possible many things, including realtime payments processing such as ours as well as funny stuff like listentobitcoin and listentobuttcoin.

They also provide one of the best online wallet solutions available for those who do the online wallet thing.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Things are always evolving, one that looks promising and extends the utility of bitcoin is mastercoin.

It launched earlier last year but is another promising coin to keep an eye on for different reasons.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7961/mastercoin-a-second-generation-protocol-...

...

The key difference in Mastercoin is this: rather than trying to bootstrap an entirely new blockchain, as every other cryptocurrency does, Mastercoin seeks to create an entirely new network of currencies, commodities and securities on top of Bitcoin itself.

...

Why has Mastercoin seen so much attention? Essentially, the main attraction of Mastercoin is the sheer number and depth of the features that it brings. The following is a sample of what the Mastercoin specification intends for Mastercoin to support:

  • User-defined currencies – anyone can create their own currency on the Mastercoin network.
  • Decentralized exchange – the Mastercoin network itself serves as a fully-functional exchange between any two currencies in the Mastercoin network. Anyone can place an order on the blockchain to trade a quantity of one currency for another, and anyone else can match the orders and have the trade complete automatically without the order poster’s further involvement.
  • On-blockchain price feeds – trusted organizations can publish price data (eg. the value of one ounce of gold in USD) which can then be used in Mastercoin scripts
  • On-blockchain bets – it is possible to register a bet with another party that a given price feed will be above or below a certain value at a particular future time. This essentially allows leveraged speculation on currency pairs, as well as hedging, so that users can store value in the Mastercoin network without exposing themselves to a high degree of currency risk from Bitcoin or Mastercoin volatility.
  • Savings addresses – a transaction from a savings address can be reversed within N days (with N set for each address) by a “guardian address”. This essentially provides an additional level of security for high-value savings accounts.

Decentralized Peer to Peer Exchange This is a feature many in the Bitcoin world have been longing for - a way to trade their Bitcoin for Mastercoin or any other digital currency with out having to use a third party.
 
Mastercoin makes this possible by leveraging the Bitcoin blockchain itself as the third party and timestamping service. User Currencies Mastercoins will contain simple tools which will allow anyone to design and release their own currency or commodity, with their own rules, without doing any software development. Smart Property Smart properties and smart contracts are digitized property rights and contracts rights, which may be transferred amount individuals and business entities via a protocol facilitated by the Bitcoin network.
 
Mastercoin supports creating property tokens to be used for titles, deeds, user- backed currencies, and even shares in a company. Whenever property is created, it gets assigned the next available currency ID, so any property can be bought, sold, transferred, and even used for betting, just like other Mastercoin-derived currencies.


Decentralized Peer to Peer Exchange This is a feature many in the Bitcoin world have been longing for - a way to trade their Bitcoin for Mastercoin or any other digital currency with out having to use a third party.
 
Mastercoin makes this possible by leveraging the Bitcoin blockchain itself as the third party and timestamping service. User Currencies Mastercoins will contain simple tools which will allow anyone to design and release their own currency or commodity, with their own rules, without doing any software development. Smart Property Smart properties and smart contracts are digitized property rights and contracts rights, which may be transferred amount individuals and business entities via a protocol facilitated by the Bitcoin network.
 
Mastercoin supports creating property tokens to be used for titles, deeds, user- backed currencies, and even shares in a company. Whenever property is created, it gets assigned the next available currency ID, so any property can be bought, sold, transferred, and even used for betting, just like other Mastercoin-derived currencies.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture


Byron Wien ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Byron Wiener ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:11 | Link to Comment Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Byron's wiener, barbarous relic currently parked in an asshat.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:40 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Please everyone, please don't overthink the above reply...

LOL!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:30 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Aren't we about due for a Hindenburg Omen?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

The guy with the finger on the Enter key is still on vacation.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:49 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

I think that's Heisenberg Omen now-  the convergence of meth heads paying for the Blue with BitCoin.....

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

I love predictions like this for Bitcoin. Prepare to eat your words.

GOLD PARITY and beyond, BITCHES.

(And Bitcoin is trading above 1,000 again on Gox, but hey - don't let that get in the way of the hate parade.)

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

2014 Bagels $1.20 but Byron gets his free at Blackstone.   He also gets free coffee.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Duke of Earl
Duke of Earl's picture

"During the year Bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important."

Sounds exactly like the dollar.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

...I'd agree, except for the fact that the dollar is used in plenty of illegal transactions where anonymity isn't important, because 99% of money laundering goes unprosecuted because the banking system would collapse without it.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

No, no, no Miami was built solely by Bitcoins in the 1970s.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:25 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Holy..! I see dead people!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:06 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

How exactly does he envision growth with WTI at $110 (which means Brent would be $125ish)?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't know which was funnier, the fact that he thinks  Abe is the only world leader who understands Cheney was right when he said deficits don't matter, or the fact that Zerocare will have a dramatic turn around. Some people don't know when it's time to retire.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:51 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

Well, Byron will be dead by the time it turns around, so he's got that going for him.....

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:57 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Maybe this is as good as it gets?"

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Keyser
Keyser's picture

I'm not sure he's not already dead. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 18:03 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

ReAnimator was a prophecy.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Audacity17
Audacity17's picture

Deficits don't matter.

Until they do.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 22:13 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

CHENEY & WOLFOWITZ were the architects of 'new rome', new world order, with a GUN/NUKE to the worlds head, you can print unlimited FIAT,

Since 911 both MIL-GOV, and CIVILIAN-GOV have gone infinite FIAT, and it doesn't fucking matter, so this old codger is right that cheney was right,

Mao said it best a long time ago "All political power to create money comes from the barrel of a gun".

***

He's probably right that they'll fix the zerocare website, but a website is not fixing ameriKKKa's medical klusterfuck.

Nothing can fix the medical problem in the USA, except

1.) abolish ama

2.) abolish lawsuits, if a doc kills, the family kills the doc

3.) let any kid be a doc, just like cuba

4.) drive the price med down to $10/day, just like the real world

5.) charge $1 a bag for all pills and get rid of prescription system,

6.) kill the entire fucking insurance industry, most countrys don't need insurance, its just another fuck racket

People here say 1-6 not possible in USA, I know but everywhere else in the world its how its done.

 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 22:17 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Abe doesn't  have a gun to the worlds head to accept JPY, but they're working on it, no doubt that japan imperial army is going to retool, me thinks the USA will engineer  a IRAN-IRAQ 10 year war between china-japan,... uncle sam loves that shit

japs are now like germans in 1920's tired of fucking being bottom dogs,... a smart fascist will soon take over japan, and lead that nation out of their funk.

China hates jap's to the bone, for raping chinese girls by the millions and fucking them to death in fuck camps, the bad blood goes deep.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:28 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

byron is super cereal this time bitchez

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h05YfP_8UsU

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:31 | Link to Comment katchum
katchum's picture

I sincerely doubt bitcoin will be at zero, because some people already lost their password, address or their laptop/memory stick.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:47 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

I was taking my bitcoins and PMs on a canoeing trip, when suddenly the canoe capsized and they all sunk to the bottom of the lake.  I marked the spot in my mind for future retrieval.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:31 | Link to Comment RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination

So Obama is going to win in 2016 then?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:01 | Link to Comment qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

well yes and no...

 

Ted Cruz is going to pick Obama as his VP because by then ACA will have turned around and all Americans will have dumped their insurance to sign up for ACA - it's that good!  The people will demand Obama stays in office!

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 01:01 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"You got TNT in my Cordite..."

Careful there, pardner!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:35 | Link to Comment SmallerGovNow2
Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

As predicted, of course: "The "polar vortex" (no, really) which is about to unleash even record-er cold temperatures upon the US may be the greatest thing to happen to the economy: after all once Q1 GDP estimates miss once again, what better scapegoat to blame it on than cold winter weather during... the winter."

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:18 | Link to Comment Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Maybe the "polar vortex" will be used as an excuse to Un-Taper.

"Mah, we've got this polar vortex, see?  And we need to warm up the frozen assets, see??  Mah!"

[said in a 1920's criminal voice, see?  Mah!]

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

Polar vortex will not surpass the unreported damage of obamacare vortex, it created the part time economy. Formerly 40hr week wage earners are seeking 2 jobs. And 1099rs are the 2nd growing labor segment.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

Some stores closed or reduces hours in my area, "Due to Weather Condition". I'm still wrapping my head around it.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

 With Bitcoin crossing $1000 mark again at Mt.Gox today we issue our Warning like we did last timeBitcoin is building a Double Top potentially and level of $1240 will be crucial. It is the great present to Chinese holders - we guess that they will be happy to sell into this strength with restrictions for FIAT withdrawals from Exchanges coming in place by end of this month.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/gold-30-want-to-create-next-bitcoin....

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:16 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@Sufiy

So, are you wrong when we bust through $1,240? I'd really love to know if you're going to move the goalposts, or stick to your guns.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:58 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

Wien ought to take a cue from you and offer his predictions AFTER they occur.  Following the mid-Dec crash you told us in multiple posts that you expected it to fall to $500. 

You did at the same time tell us, however, that you fully expect a big pull back around Feb, so there's some genuine prognostication..."genuine" but not necessarily in the sense of correct.  Time will tell. 

On the other hand, yesterday you said that we're in for milestones from here on out.  Does "here" begin in Feb, and does your definition of milestones (in the sense you used it) include pullbacks??  Or is that more hedging by playing both sides of the future fence?

Still expecting that pulback?  When?  By how much?  Due to what triggering event(s)?

I'll take my cue from you and let you know when and by how much...just as soon as it happens

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@chemystical

I'm doing something called "trading for my own account", so I can't really hand-hold you through the changes in my strategy as the market trades 24 hours a day. Perhaps if you subscribed - but honestly I'd wonder if I was wasting my time with you, given your troll-like stance on the whole matter.

As for what I'm expecting now - I'll give you the general outlook, since I've already said it elsewhere. Gold Parity and beyond, and no - if we have counter-trend declines, it doesn't mean that the party is over, either. That's what REAL markets do, go up AND down.

Unlike the Federal Reserve infested equity pump that you guys watch so much.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:13 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

MORE of the usual nonsequitur BS.  Yesiree you're exposing mendacity alright: your own.

Answer the fucking question asshole or stfu:

You stated multiple times that you fully expect a pullback around Feb.  Yet yesterday you stated that you expect milestones from here on out.  You can't have it both ways.

Are you full of shit, or do you confess to contradicting yourself?

You had no problem telling us multple times about that pullback in Feb, so why not flesh it out?  I expect it to rain sometime somewhere this year.  See how easy it is?  "Trading for your own account", and therefore you can't tell us more?  But you've already blown so much hot air in telling us about the timing and so much more; it's difficult to understand why you're reluctant now to blow some more now? 

Your repeated after the fact claim that you expected the mid-Dec crash is equally BS.  I predicted Pearl Harbor, but didn't bother telling anyone until Dec 8.  Damn this is easy.

Answer the fucking question you blowhard.

PS if you expect gold parity from here on out, you must therefore expect a pullback in gold at the same time as your on the record statements about a pullback in bitcoin: around Feb.  Not that you'd dare quantify the magnitude of that.  Easier to say, "See?  gold fell 0.01% ergo pullback."  Fucking windbag with the audacity to call yourself an exposer of mendacity.

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:17 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

PPS

Anyone who disagrees wth you is ipso facto a troll, eh?

Ironic then that all of those "trolls" have track records of posting to a wider variety of topics than your mostly one note mantra on bitcoins.

Who's a troll?  Look in the mirror for both that and for the mendacity you seek.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

This is what I don't get about bitcoin being the next global currency.  We should have the world standard be something that nobody can mess with, like, I don't know, an oz of gold (not the price, the weight), but bitcoin is only a price mechanism and has no function and value seperate from its price.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 22:05 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

FIAT withdrawls from BTC? Where who?

I have yet to see an exchange with the capitilization to return money (USD FIAT), it seems that the BTC exchanges take in real money (FIAT), and return chinese-mined BTC's, and then turn around and use that  FIAT to buy real gold.

If anything this entire BTC ponzi is the CHINESE robbing the stupid fuckingt western GEEK

***

Maybe that is the plan why the NSA set this up, and the west will be so fucking pissed when their left holding the bag it can justify war with china?

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 02:59 | Link to Comment JustUsChickensHere
JustUsChickensHere's picture

No converson back to national currency (aka fiat withdrawal)????  I call bullshit on that statement. I personally converted my entire (rather large) orginal stake back to the local curency to satisfy the fears and nagging of my wife.  I kept the profits of the continual re-pricing of BTC in BTC ....

So that is yet another instance of you being just plain wrong.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Byron Wien needs to buy a weasel for hunting out new globalized state owned market investments. A 30% return is expected.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:39 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

bet this asshole owns a condo on Rothschilds BLVD in Tel Aviv........

just sayin....

~~~

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

it's finally going to be a profitable year, i now have a play book.  all i have to do is bet the other way on these 10 predictions

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Audacity17
Audacity17's picture

Fade Wiener?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:50 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

The Fed ending QE is a non-event?

 

Rrrrrrrright.  During the gvt debt explosion since 2008 the only activity that prevents the US from having 20%+ 10yr rates is the Fed printing and buying bonds.

 

Dream on that it is a non event.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Where does he say, that Bitcoin goes to zero? I don't read that. 

And if Bitcoin is really the principal utility is for illegal, anonymous business dealings,

the price will go to da moon.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:29 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

That's right.  The official price of Bitcoin could be $0 in some countries while on the black market it is five or six figures.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:01 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

noone need worry about Bitcoin going to zero.

 

fonestar will bid all the way down.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:39 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

If BTC goes to say 1 cent, could fonestar be the guy holding the bag?

Me thinks that fonestar  got and get's all his BTC's for free, and neve spent a real cent of his own money on BTC.

I think that the majority of BTC PIMPS here on ZH, never bought their BTC's they got them for free and in exchange they PIMP and PUMP the bitch to the max,

Hell even Ron Paul is sitting on tons of 'free' BTC by donation to the cause.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@stupid-toshi

I think you got your brain in a evolution firesale, but it certainly hasn't stopped you from posting your tinfoil crazy theories everywhere on ZH.

Don't hate the player - we can't help it that world governments all over are debasing their currencies. Bitcoin is merely reflecting the fact that your corrupt politicians and crony capitalists are making it transparent that they don't give a fuck about the average citizen.

Bitcoin takes that power back, and enables the common citizen to spend what they want on whatever they want.

But you'd know that if you bothered to look up any of the facts - however you're too busy going on your doublespaced alternate CAPITAL rages on SOMETHING or OTHER.

Keep it up, you're the unofficial Bitcoin Jester - I get a good bellylaugh from all of your stupid bullshit.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 22:02 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

I honestly thought that fonestar was the BTC jester, but then you and him are the same person right?

***

It's boring and if you notice the last few days I have stayed away from the BTC posts, cuz its always the same, no movement forward, just peddling in motion, hamster cage stuff.

By the time this thing is fucked, nobody will talk about it anyhow.

BTC is  beanie-baby 1999 right now, back in 1999 beanie-baby was at $10B capitalization, just like BTC today, everybody and his dog had their garage full of beanie-baby's, ... everybody knew that every beanie baby would go to milllion dollars, ... and it lasted a long fucking time,

Until they ran out of new suckers and then it slowly imploded, today I still know many people with garages loaded with beanie-babys and these people are waiting for it to come back,

BORING THEN AND BORING NOW.

 

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 01:31 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
Tue, 01/07/2014 - 01:34 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Careful with that "boredom" 'tude...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:48 | Link to Comment magne13
magne13's picture

ZH why bother posting anything these old codgers say anyway, like Buffet I think it pathetic that they are still in the game.  I could think of a million better things to do at that age then worry about what the central planners are up to. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Saucy-Jack
Saucy-Jack's picture

Ted Cruz was fucking born in Canada. How exactly does he become a front runner as he is not a natural born citizen.

Granted, the Kenyan made it to the office, but Ted admits he was born in Canada.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:58 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

The Constitution is a Living Document.

"They" can reinterpret it at any time.

 “itself remains the same, but its applicability must change as the basic mores of society change.”

http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/07pdf/07-343.pdf

 

Hope and Change!

 

 

"Change? ... But arenT things bad enough as they are?"

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:27 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

He was born in Alberta, yes, but to parents who were citizens of the USA and working in CAN at the time.

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President..."

"Natural born" is not defined in the US Constitution, but the CRS issued this opinion:

"The weight of legal and historical authority indicates that the term "natural born" citizen would mean a person who is entitled to U.S. citizenship "by birth" or "at birth", either by being born "in" the United States and under its jurisdiction, even those born to foreign parents; by being born abroad to U.S. citizen-parents; or by being born in other situations meeting legal requirements for U.S. citizenship "at birth".

The bigger disqualification should be that his wife Heidi is head of the Southwest Region in the Investment Management Division of The Squid.  She also worked for as the WH Economic Director for the Western Hemisphere.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:35 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

Obama, on the other hand, may have been born a broad.  Witness his prediliction for sex with men and riding girls' bicycles.

By contrast The Wookie might have been born a man.  Insert comments here:________

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

market moves as "State policy" are not good for markets. these aren't broken markets...these are "fixed" markets. that says liquidity is fleeing...that would be in the LIQUID markets. you can't even "fix" the gold market now? that says to me "say hello to supply and demand."

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

Wow. That Iran thing just will not die. They've been a turn of wrench away from a nuclear bomb for 25 years now. Just incredible to see half intelligent people repeat these lies.

Agree in Ted Cruz. Party of Stupid

Clinton: only if someone has something so damaging on her that she can't have them killed post election

S&P to 2000. Collar there, enjoy.

Republican Party implodes. Libertarian wing splits off and forms an alliance with the principled-left (civil libertarians, conservationists, disestablishmentarians) to form a new center-left party.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:43 | Link to Comment dvfco
dvfco's picture

I wish I knew where to pull it up, but there is a great collection of articles from 1980 through 2013 showing Iran one-step from THE BOMB.  It's amazing, those guys just can't seem to figure out the one last step - for 33 years!  

Why don't Amerikans just wake up and realize they ain't shooting an a-bomb at us and Israel has 80+ nukes, has never admitted it, has imprisoned its citizens for saying that it was true, and ignored any and all international pressure to admit to its possession of these weapons.

We used them in Japan and it's a tough call to say if it was the right thing to do.  While it saved lives, people don't realize we had fire-bombed from very low altitude over 80% of 80% of the largest cities in Japan.  They were so near done it was incredible, but I still am not against it.

On the other hand, I don't think that Israel would wait 10 seconds if they thought they could lob one of their own anywhere on earth without disappearing.  My guess is that Russia would spot an errant one by mistake and launch about 300 nukes into Tel Aviv and Jerusalam in 10 minutes.  They know it.  Likewise, the Iranians know that if they ever launched a nuke, anywhere, Israel would destroy every inch of their country.  It's the same Mutually Assured Destruction we grew up with in our Cold War - but let them deal with it.  I don't give a fuck.  

Iran has an amazing cultural history that is denigrated by the American Media.  Probably more than 80% of the country would love to see the mullahs all fry and to live in peace, but you'll never hear that.  They even tried their own revolution, long before Libya and Egypt and WE DID NOTHING TO HELP THEM!   Instead, hmm, weird isn't it, Obama helped all the hard-core Muslim terrorist groups, but wouldn't help Iranian students.  

We're being sooooo fucked.  Stop reading the news.  Stick with the Hedge and the comments found within.  Exclude Gold Bitchez and you'll get a lot of intelligent commentary and people calling bullshit on that which is.  I truly appreciate this site.

Never underestimate the simplicity and ignorance of the typical American and remember that the Mainstream Media exists to keep them in that state.  

As the coach once said to his player, "What's wrong with you today son, you're not playing well.  What is it, ignorance of apathy?"  The athlete responds, "Coach, I don't know and I don't care."  To me, that sums up the US of A.  Just keep the gov't aid coming.

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:56 | Link to Comment dvfco
dvfco's picture

I just typed in "Iran and Nuclear Weapons" and I only got About 57,800,000 results (0.31 seconds).  

Go to trends.google.com and type in Iran & Nuclear & Weapon and see how the bar graph is steady as far back as they go, which is 2004.  

They're always going to be within a month of getting an A-Bomb.  Israel tested its first nuke in September of 1979 (according to Wikipedia).

So, every day that goes by is another day that Israel has had many dozens of them and since we, as Americans, actually became the only country to ever use them against another nation.  

But, we should be the ones who get to pick who get what in this world, right?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Gusher
Gusher's picture

When you look at his predictions from a year ago, he was not only wrong, but some of them, admittedly with the benefit of hindsight, were just plain absurd!  And yet Byron is rich and most of us are not.  Amazing.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:02 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

From the look of that picture, I'm predicting Byron Wien will get to 110 in 2014. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:57 | Link to Comment SurlysonofaBitch
SurlysonofaBitch's picture

Were these his genuine predictions, or was this a list from a theOnion.com article? 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I swear I've seen this guy before.  Not sure if it was this poster:

http://ww2today.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Poster-for-Eternal-Jew-Ew...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Fuck off and die Byron you rotten old fuck

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:10 | Link to Comment A_latvian
A_latvian's picture

Tonight at 11:  Old establishment Keynesian economist predicts anything going against the socialist status quo will fail in the new year.

In other news, water is wet, and Dogecoins are a scam!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Everybody is right once: Roubini.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

banksters love this guy for his comedy

watch him perform his schtick after the Yelling confirmation and fecal banquet.

 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:34 | Link to Comment beavertails
beavertails's picture

1. What no assassinations? (think Janet Yellen, not Obama)

2. Major weather event (like all the world's ice breakers stuck in Antartica slowing down global shipping)

3. Natural disasters (Earthquake hitting the West Coast sending residents into Radioactive ocean waters)

4. 10 yr bond yields hitting 3.25% in Q1, forcing the Great UNTAPERING (US housing implodes as Consumer Confidence hits FATH)

5. Collapse of the Terrorist Saudi Regime (Russian Payback is a B*tch)

6. Paper gold defaults as Comex gold prices touch $850, the same price as FACEBOOK and TWITTER shares, The GLD  (Gold Lost DumbAss)

7. Brazil declares gold backed currency first and offers Passport and Amnesty to Snowden.  Snowden leaves Russia after competing as an Olympic Bobsled Athelete from Brazil.

8. $220 oil (see Saudi Arabia)

9. Western Hyperinflation (see GREAT UNTAPERING, and Peter Schiff was Right)

10. Zerohedge goes mainstreamed, freedom breaks out in USSA.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:46 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

10. Zerohedge goes mainstreamed, freedom breaks out in USSA.

 

ZH is the MSM, enough said.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Ass to Mouth
Ass to Mouth's picture

Notice that he didn't predict his own death.  I'm going with the contrarian play on that one.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

predictions are like assholes.....this joker has many.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:24 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

2014 for the bulls : GAME CHANGE....

A bit like the film about Sarah Palin....2014 is to the American economy what Sarah Palin was to the Repub Election campaign of 2008 in the midst of financial meltdown...When she sang : we are unapologetic about our way of life and about winning in Iraq.

memories of what tea and sympathy were like in those halcyon days before Lehman collapse...and now the BULLS are back and Alaska will take on Russia and Fuku and whatever the world throws at the USA! 

Game Change (TV Movie 2012) - IMDb

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Byron Wein: Communist party apparatchik.

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:27 | Link to Comment 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Except for the S&P, the other three things have all been there done that.

 

Now... how about stuff that matters like ammo and food?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 19:35 | Link to Comment Martel
Martel's picture

Proves threre is an age divide in relation to bitcoin. Old geezers (>40 y.o.) dont' get it, them young ones get it. In music, there was a leap of faith to switch from CDs to MP3s, and yet another leap of faith to switch from MP3s to Spotify. The color and heaviness of a gold ingot are nice, but not all valuable things need to be tangible.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:22 | Link to Comment FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

You callin me, Keanu Reeves, Jennifer Aniston, Matt Damon, and Cameron Diaz old geezers?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@Martel

Age is part of it, but another is mental agility. Some people age faster than others in different areas. There are some younger people who are absolutely indoctrinated and closed to new ideas. Happens a bit more often with older folks, but it isn't a age-specific phenomenon.

Again, it just comes down to being willing to evaluate a new idea instead of stuffing it into the trash bin upon first inspection. It boggles my mind that someone wouldn't give a new technology or a new point of view a chance - aren't we supposed to be adaptable creatures?

Anyway, even if the ones with "fossilized denial" don't bite, the mix is clearly biased towards those willing to take risks and evaluate new ideas.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:55 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Yep, the 80 year old octagenarian from blackwater ( merc killer for sam /sarc ), who is a world leader in finance,

Or a 14 year old in a basement with a PC running a BTC exchange, who are you going to listen too?

I would take the 14 year old any day, as they know so much more about finance, and pyramid scams.

What would an 80 year old know? About money?

***

Remember kids most of us old timers, designed the computers your using, and wrote the operating systems and compilers. You think just because your a monkey on a keyboard that means you got something special,

It's always been this way, but at the end of the day the old guys got the money, and the kids have to talk shit.


Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:34 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

I get the analogy, but with all due respect, how can you call it a leap of faith for < 40 yr old consumers (or those of any age) to switch from CD's to mp3's??

The switch cost them relatively nothing.  If we're talking about portable media players you could buy a cheap gig stick to play mp3s for $10 on sale back then.   A "pricey" player might have been 20X that if you went hog wild.  The attraction was huge because the cost of downloading new content p2p was nil.  My library from Limewire and other p2p was huge and cost me and millions of others nothing.  The paradigm shifted after that and the recording industry and Apple got (some) folks to pay for content.

Risking $10 to $200 for something that was better than and cost less than cd and would still be around 100yrs from now even if another mp3 was never to be found?  Not much of a leap there.

With all due respect

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Audacity17
Audacity17's picture

The odds are greater that BTC will be closer to 10000 than 0.

And that is irrespective of whether it has any merit.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:44 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

I'll cheerfully change that down arrow to an up if you provide even a scintilla of reasoning for your statement.  (Either of them for that matter). 

I don't need to agree with your reasoning, but it would be helpful to provide some.

Most of us are here to learn something.  I first heard of bitcoin years ago thanks (?) to some friends, but have learned much herein during the last 8 months or so and 100X that by seeking info own my own. 

I'm not a believer though, and one of the more annoying things that I hear in these pages is that it doesn't hurt to diversify.  No it doesn't but you can't own everything (where would you put it?) and there's still the question of allocation.  One must be at least somewhat selective in where they put their eggs.  The "what could it hurt to buy 10 or 20?" attitude is nonsensical.

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 01:09 | Link to Comment Audacity17
Audacity17's picture

Sure.  Why would anyone think that something that took 4 years to get to $1200 is going to drop to zero in a year??  If it went to $1200 without sales/revenue/earnings/equity/intrinsic value...what exactly could happen to make it a zero?  Even Tulips didn't go to zero, lol.

Secondly, many people on this forum constantly claim BTC is a bubble.   They've been saying it since it hit $10.  The point is, bubbles can go much further than people think.  I feel confident BTC hits $5,001 before 0.

Full disclosure, I don't own bitcoin.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:44 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

In 2½ years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold’s position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.

***

Since everybody here missed what he said, ... I'll repeat what this old guy said, it will fail, cuz you can't use it for collateral, you can't go to fannie-mae and say "GIVE ME  A MTG I GOT 1,000 BTC's in my wallet", it don't mean shit to anybody, might as well say "MY dick is 6 feet long, give me a  MTG"

This old guy is saying that over the long  course of time, given that BTC will not give you COLLATERAL, that over the long haul nobody can keep their money there,

With GOLD, you always have collateral for all time in all country's in all places,

WITH BTC your money is locked up in some exchange ran by some teenager in a basement in nigeria, thus nobody will treat BTC as collateral forever, ... so says this guy, me thinks he's right.

He says the 'acceptance' will collapse that's a nice way of saying that NEW MORONS feeding the bitch will quit coming foreward, at that time without price support the bitch collapses.

 

The black market? Well the FBI will continue with the block-public ledger to round up 'criminals', the MOB ain't stupid when they understand that BTC is a honey pot they will quit using BTC.

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

These day people are using services like Bitcoin-Fog to clean their coins - http://www.bitcoinfog.com/ and nobodies got busted so far (provided that they do their due diligence to protect themselves). I've used the service myself, no hitch.

Look at ZeroCoin coming up in the future - http://zerocoin.org/media/pdf/ZerocoinOakland.pdf -

and http://zerocoin.org for less technical explanation.

We are looking at an new age of virtual black-markets. I believe that Onionland's economy will continue to grow at a 3 digit pace and the AlphabetSoup Departments can do little but simmer in the background.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:28 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@stupid-toshi

Again with your failure to understand... well, anything.

You do realize that the new client supports multisig? This means, you can have ESCROW CONTRACTS and other transactions on the blockchain. It means you can use Bitcoin for COLLATERAL if you so wish. Hell, Reggie Middleton has made a derivatives market for Bitcoin.

As for real estate, there are firms opening up to the idea, some you can actually rent from - and others you can buy using Bitcoin.

Perhaps your "great firewall" didn't let you investigate those facts, I can't think of any other reason unless you're just a barking seal troll.

As for exchanges "locking up your money", its always been recognized early on that exchanges are risks, some of the larger ones have proven themselves and that trust has been rewarded. Its no different than people scamming others out of money in the equity markets.

But again, you never seem to let facts interfere with your china-smog-addled opinion.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:48 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

ESCROW CONTRACTS and other transactions on the blockchain. It means you can use Bitcoin for COLLATERAL if you so wish. Hell, Reggie Middleton has made a derivatives market for Bitcoin.

***

Reggie Middleton, another good-house keeping nigerian name,

You can't even get your money out of BTC,  sure somebody with over-priced toys will sell you something for BTC, but take MT-GOX the biggest, I can buy BTC's, but I can't get my money back out.

In a pure world, where everybody 'accepts' BTC ok fine,... but this is the real-world,

So what if there are more exchanges, and an ESCROW from "REGGIE", what does that mean? Its not collateral, sure I'm sure''reggie' will let anybody escrow their BTC's in his wallet for awhile, as a price, ... but let's say the deal fails, escrow problem, because of title failure, or lets say somebody hack's 'reggies' nigerian wallet, ... who is going to cover? NOT insurance companys, not Reggie, fucking WHO?

The real escrow biz has to be backed by REAL MONEY, in a real country, with real laws. Backed by real insurance to cover real LOSS in case of theft or fraud, the entire deal is that legitimate insurance will not touch BTC even with 'reggies dick'.

BTC is 90% fraud, it doesn't matter who the exchange is, or whether you call that exchange an escrow service or NOT, its NOT FUCKING REAL.

The entire problem with the BTC folk, is they can pull fake stuff out of the virtual world forever, and nothing ever has to be real.

 

Sure two morons may very well not trust each other, and they place their BTC's in 'reggies nigerian'wallet for escrow-trust so fucking what? That is not real business, that is just BTC morons circle jerking each other.

Go ahead, and try to get a real MTG, at a REAL BANK with BTC's as collateral, go ahead and try? CANNOT be done, the entire point of the AUTHOR of this POST is that eventually when people realize that they're parking their money in a place where it cannot be used as 'collateral' they will RUN LIKE HELL.

 

Sure you can go to Reggie 'Nigeria' Middleton Escrow services and deal with other BTC morons, but that is a small klusterfuck of circle-jerkers in the real world.

Go out into the real world dude and get a life.

 

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 03:18 | Link to Comment Saro
Saro's picture

You can't even get your money out of BTC.

Sure you can.  Just don't use exchanges that everyone already knows can't/won't allow withdrawals in USD (e.g. MtGox).

As for the rest, two years ago the only thing you could buy with BTC was alpaca socks.  You can now buy a huge range of things with them, including high end sports cars and real estate in some circumstances.  Give it time.  The Rothchilds of the world have had centuries to build up their corrupt monetary systems, after all, so I don't think a couple more years for Bitcoin is too much to ask.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:51 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

6-ft long dick?  Worthless?  Don't sell yourself short.  You'd have immense value as a freak.  A latter day PT Barnum would surely promote your asset.  Moreso, if he could find a woman with a 6-ft long throat he'd promote her...in the sense of "there's a sucker born every minute."

By analogy Btc pumpers and circlejerkers might be left hold eachothers' bags.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:54 | Link to Comment brokenspoke
brokenspoke's picture

Guess What! Bitcoin is backed with fiat.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:49 | Link to Comment satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Whose FIAT is it back by?

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 00:58 | Link to Comment zipit
zipit's picture

Bitcoin is backed by the value of the Bitcoin network itself, which is a function of the transaction volume it processes.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!