• Sprott Money
    04/29/2016 - 05:58
    There is unfortunately no basis for renewed optimism that this current litigation will have any meaningful impact on precious metals manipulation – with respect to either silver or gold.

S&P At 2,200, 4% On The 10 Year, WTI Over $110 And Bitcoin At $0 - Byron Wien's 2014 Predictions

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The predictions of Blackstone's octogenarian Byron Wien (born in 1933) have been all over the place in the past 10 years, some correct, most wrong (with a recent hit rate of about 25%) - his 2013 year end S&P forecast was for 1300 - yet always entertaining. Which is the only value in the latest release of his 10 forecasts for 2014. Naturally, take all of these with a salt mine.

Byron’s Ten Surprises of 2014 are as follows:

  1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 approaches a 20% total return by year end (ZH: or, said otherwise, S&P 500 at 2200).
  2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.
  3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.
  4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don’t matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.
  5. China’s Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.
  6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.
  7. In spite of increased U.S. production the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.
  8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.
  9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.
  10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished and younger people begin signing up. Obama's approval rating rises and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

Also rans:

  1. Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Chris Christie and the moderates fade in popularity as momentum builds for fiscal and social conservative policies.
  2. In 2½ years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold’s position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.
  3. Overcoming objections from the Cuban exile community, President Obama opens discussions on initiating trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba. A reduction in sanctions is proposed, as well as limited financial support in the form of bonds, quickly dubbed as “Castro convertibles.”
  4. Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016. She says her work with various Clinton non-for-profit initiatives is important and unfinished. Specifically, she explains that her health was not an issue in her decision. The Democratic race for the top seat becomes chaotic.

* * *

Good luck Byron

And as a reminder, from a year ago here are Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2013, where he got exactly 0 out of 10 correct.

  1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.
  2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.
  3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.
  4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.
  5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.
  6. The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.
  7. Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.
  8. Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.
  9. The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world’s third largest economy.
  10. The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.
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Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:24 | 4305130 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

What an ass-hat!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:33 | 4305138 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Here is a lot of asshatism for ya.

Canadian Medical Association Journal Blasts Japanese Government: "Culture of Coverup" Exposing Japanese Citizens to "Unconscionable" Radiation Risk:

http://mr-absentia.soup.io/post/385488541/Canadian-Medical-Association-J...

Skeena Sockeye Fishery Closed Due to Low Returns:
http://ospreysteelheadnews.blogspot.com/...ue-to.html

Sockeye Fisheries Closed Following Historic Lows In Skeena River, B.C.:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/12/...44088.html

(SitNews) Thorne Bay, Alaska – Due to a low sockeye return, the US Forest Service Thorne Bay District Ranger is acting immediately to protect sockeye salmon in the Hatchery Creek drainage on Prince of Wales Island:
http://www.sitnews.us/0613News/062713/06...losed.html

Diseased Alaska seals tested for radiation:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/animal-ri...1#msg54931

"There was not one of the 28 days on that portion of the trip when we didn't catch a good-sized fish to cook up and eat with some rice," Macfadyen recalled. But this time, on that whole long leg of sea journey, the total catch was two. No fish. No birds. Hardly a sign of life at all.":
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/184843...is-broken/

Dead Sea Creatures Cover 98% of Ocean Floor Off California Coast; Up From 1% before Fukushima:

http://thedailyblogreport.wordpress.com/2014/01/05/dead-sea-creatures-co...

Japanese Senator: “The Path That Japan Is Taking Is The Recreation Of A Fascist State”

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/11/fukushima-radiation-will-hit-fish...

Japanese cars banned in Russia:

http://japandailypress.com/russia-bans-1...n-0641885/

Japanese Government Raises Severity Rating of Fukushima Leak:

http://ifclmedia.com/feeds/?p=9579

 

BIG RADIATION COVERAGE ON THE ALEX JONES SHOW RIGHT NOW!!!

http://www.infowars.com/listen-on-the-internet/

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:39 | 4305185 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

BitCoyn ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:46 | 4305208 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Japan ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:55 | 4305243 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dickensian?

More like DicKeynesian, amirite?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:10 | 4305284 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

The Bernank ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:15 | 4305300 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

O-BoiMaCare 2014 ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:07 | 4305489 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Byron Wein ... Barbarous Relic

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:19 | 4305306 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Old CEO, clinging to an OLD economy, OLD financial system, OLD statistics.  This guy and all the others who built their fortune on the USD sand dunes will always publish garbage like this, saying unemployment will fall, production pick up, health care will have a "remarkable" turnaround.  Because if the system changes and gets valued at what it really should be valued at, all the big boys are royally screwed.  Did you honestly think he'd publish anything different than peaches and slavery?

Just talking his book.  Means nothing to the Paradigm Shift in progress.

 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:36 | 4305381 BTFDemocracy
BTFDemocracy's picture

This is his 'wishes', not predictions.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:37 | 4305383 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Of course, Byron's prediction of $1900 gold may very well way under-estimate its price if FOFOA's "Year of the Rains" winds up coming true...

Buy gold!  Buy Bitcoin, and then buy some gold with it!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:23 | 4305334 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, we'll see Byron (a Bitcoin is now running around $925 - $1000 each, wildly volatile now).  I doubt that Bitcoin is going away.  Another fellow who knows the BTC Ecosystem has also contributed information about the Blockchain, a vital piecfe of infrastructure of the BTC Ecosystem.

Sounds boring, right?  https://blockchain.info/ has lots of interesting images that help you iunderstand what is going on.  Some are pretty cool to look at.

"Fun with Bitcoin for Beginners: Part Six: The Blockchain"

http://tinyurl.com/l7qwsek

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:31 | 4305368 fonestar
fonestar's picture

That's right DoChen..... Bitcoin is the kind of fad that comes around every 5,000 years and stays for good.  Bitcoin is the permatrend.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:42 | 4305389 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You replied too quickly, before I could clean up my typos...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:35 | 4306756 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

While I don't like bitcoin at all I have to agree it isn't going away anytime very soon.  It will likely prove too useful to TPTB.  The fact that they have only gone after individuals and exchanges and not the thing itself says a lot to me (especially knowing the necessary underlying technologies).

To be clear, I don't hope you are wrong.  I fear I am right.

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 03:04 | 4307179 Saro
Saro's picture

Going after the entry and exit points to and from the mainstream financial system (which they control) is literally their only option.  The Bitcoin network itself is beyond their control.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:42 | 4305585 malikai
malikai's picture

Blockchain.info is a great resource. They provide a websocket stream of the blockchain which makes possible many things, including realtime payments processing such as ours as well as funny stuff like listentobitcoin and listentobuttcoin.

They also provide one of the best online wallet solutions available for those who do the online wallet thing.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:06 | 4306209 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Things are always evolving, one that looks promising and extends the utility of bitcoin is mastercoin.

It launched earlier last year but is another promising coin to keep an eye on for different reasons.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7961/mastercoin-a-second-generation-protocol-...

...

The key difference in Mastercoin is this: rather than trying to bootstrap an entirely new blockchain, as every other cryptocurrency does, Mastercoin seeks to create an entirely new network of currencies, commodities and securities on top of Bitcoin itself.

...

Why has Mastercoin seen so much attention? Essentially, the main attraction of Mastercoin is the sheer number and depth of the features that it brings. The following is a sample of what the Mastercoin specification intends for Mastercoin to support:

  • User-defined currencies – anyone can create their own currency on the Mastercoin network.
  • Decentralized exchange – the Mastercoin network itself serves as a fully-functional exchange between any two currencies in the Mastercoin network. Anyone can place an order on the blockchain to trade a quantity of one currency for another, and anyone else can match the orders and have the trade complete automatically without the order poster’s further involvement.
  • On-blockchain price feeds – trusted organizations can publish price data (eg. the value of one ounce of gold in USD) which can then be used in Mastercoin scripts
  • On-blockchain bets – it is possible to register a bet with another party that a given price feed will be above or below a certain value at a particular future time. This essentially allows leveraged speculation on currency pairs, as well as hedging, so that users can store value in the Mastercoin network without exposing themselves to a high degree of currency risk from Bitcoin or Mastercoin volatility.
  • Savings addresses – a transaction from a savings address can be reversed within N days (with N set for each address) by a “guardian address”. This essentially provides an additional level of security for high-value savings accounts.

Decentralized Peer to Peer Exchange This is a feature many in the Bitcoin world have been longing for - a way to trade their Bitcoin for Mastercoin or any other digital currency with out having to use a third party.
 
Mastercoin makes this possible by leveraging the Bitcoin blockchain itself as the third party and timestamping service. User Currencies Mastercoins will contain simple tools which will allow anyone to design and release their own currency or commodity, with their own rules, without doing any software development. Smart Property Smart properties and smart contracts are digitized property rights and contracts rights, which may be transferred amount individuals and business entities via a protocol facilitated by the Bitcoin network.
 
Mastercoin supports creating property tokens to be used for titles, deeds, user- backed currencies, and even shares in a company. Whenever property is created, it gets assigned the next available currency ID, so any property can be bought, sold, transferred, and even used for betting, just like other Mastercoin-derived currencies.


Decentralized Peer to Peer Exchange This is a feature many in the Bitcoin world have been longing for - a way to trade their Bitcoin for Mastercoin or any other digital currency with out having to use a third party.
 
Mastercoin makes this possible by leveraging the Bitcoin blockchain itself as the third party and timestamping service. User Currencies Mastercoins will contain simple tools which will allow anyone to design and release their own currency or commodity, with their own rules, without doing any software development. Smart Property Smart properties and smart contracts are digitized property rights and contracts rights, which may be transferred amount individuals and business entities via a protocol facilitated by the Bitcoin network.
 
Mastercoin supports creating property tokens to be used for titles, deeds, user- backed currencies, and even shares in a company. Whenever property is created, it gets assigned the next available currency ID, so any property can be bought, sold, transferred, and even used for betting, just like other Mastercoin-derived currencies.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:56 | 4305247 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture


Byron Wien ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:01 | 4305253 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Byron Wiener ... Barbarous Relic...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:11 | 4305293 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Byron's wiener, barbarous relic currently parked in an asshat.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:40 | 4305395 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Please everyone, please don't overthink the above reply...

LOL!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:30 | 4305153 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Aren't we about due for a Hindenburg Omen?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:48 | 4305204 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

The guy with the finger on the Enter key is still on vacation.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:49 | 4305224 jcaz
jcaz's picture

I think that's Heisenberg Omen now-  the convergence of meth heads paying for the Blue with BitCoin.....

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:17 | 4305309 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

I love predictions like this for Bitcoin. Prepare to eat your words.

GOLD PARITY and beyond, BITCHES.

(And Bitcoin is trading above 1,000 again on Gox, but hey - don't let that get in the way of the hate parade.)

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 17:06 | 4305477 Freddie
Freddie's picture

2014 Bagels $1.20 but Byron gets his free at Blackstone.   He also gets free coffee.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:27 | 4305139 Duke of Earl
Duke of Earl's picture

"During the year Bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important."

Sounds exactly like the dollar.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:29 | 4305152 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

...I'd agree, except for the fact that the dollar is used in plenty of illegal transactions where anonymity isn't important, because 99% of money laundering goes unprosecuted because the banking system would collapse without it.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:44 | 4305189 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

No, no, no Miami was built solely by Bitcoins in the 1970s.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:25 | 4305142 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Holy..! I see dead people!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:06 | 4305272 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

How exactly does he envision growth with WTI at $110 (which means Brent would be $125ish)?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:28 | 4305146 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't know which was funnier, the fact that he thinks  Abe is the only world leader who understands Cheney was right when he said deficits don't matter, or the fact that Zerocare will have a dramatic turn around. Some people don't know when it's time to retire.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:51 | 4305227 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Well, Byron will be dead by the time it turns around, so he's got that going for him.....

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:57 | 4305248 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Maybe this is as good as it gets?"

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:08 | 4305280 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I'm not sure he's not already dead. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 18:03 | 4305646 malikai
malikai's picture

ReAnimator was a prophecy.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 19:41 | 4305941 Audacity17
Audacity17's picture

Deficits don't matter.

Until they do.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 22:13 | 4306443 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

CHENEY & WOLFOWITZ were the architects of 'new rome', new world order, with a GUN/NUKE to the worlds head, you can print unlimited FIAT,

Since 911 both MIL-GOV, and CIVILIAN-GOV have gone infinite FIAT, and it doesn't fucking matter, so this old codger is right that cheney was right,

Mao said it best a long time ago "All political power to create money comes from the barrel of a gun".

***

He's probably right that they'll fix the zerocare website, but a website is not fixing ameriKKKa's medical klusterfuck.

Nothing can fix the medical problem in the USA, except

1.) abolish ama

2.) abolish lawsuits, if a doc kills, the family kills the doc

3.) let any kid be a doc, just like cuba

4.) drive the price med down to $10/day, just like the real world

5.) charge $1 a bag for all pills and get rid of prescription system,

6.) kill the entire fucking insurance industry, most countrys don't need insurance, its just another fuck racket

People here say 1-6 not possible in USA, I know but everywhere else in the world its how its done.

 

 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 22:17 | 4306457 satoshi101
satoshi101's picture

Abe doesn't  have a gun to the worlds head to accept JPY, but they're working on it, no doubt that japan imperial army is going to retool, me thinks the USA will engineer  a IRAN-IRAQ 10 year war between china-japan,... uncle sam loves that shit

japs are now like germans in 1920's tired of fucking being bottom dogs,... a smart fascist will soon take over japan, and lead that nation out of their funk.

China hates jap's to the bone, for raping chinese girls by the millions and fucking them to death in fuck camps, the bad blood goes deep.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:28 | 4305150 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

byron is super cereal this time bitchez

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h05YfP_8UsU

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:31 | 4305156 katchum
katchum's picture

I sincerely doubt bitcoin will be at zero, because some people already lost their password, address or their laptop/memory stick.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:47 | 4305201 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

I was taking my bitcoins and PMs on a canoeing trip, when suddenly the canoe capsized and they all sunk to the bottom of the lake.  I marked the spot in my mind for future retrieval.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:31 | 4305159 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination

So Obama is going to win in 2016 then?

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:01 | 4305262 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

well yes and no...

 

Ted Cruz is going to pick Obama as his VP because by then ACA will have turned around and all Americans will have dumped their insurance to sign up for ACA - it's that good!  The people will demand Obama stays in office!

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 01:01 | 4306967 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"You got TNT in my Cordite..."

Careful there, pardner!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 15:35 | 4305163 SmallerGovNow2
Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:10 | 4305286 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

As predicted, of course: "The "polar vortex" (no, really) which is about to unleash even record-er cold temperatures upon the US may be the greatest thing to happen to the economy: after all once Q1 GDP estimates miss once again, what better scapegoat to blame it on than cold winter weather during... the winter."

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 16:18 | 4305310 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Maybe the "polar vortex" will be used as an excuse to Un-Taper.

"Mah, we've got this polar vortex, see?  And we need to warm up the frozen assets, see??  Mah!"

[said in a 1920's criminal voice, see?  Mah!]

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 19:03 | 4305801 Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

Polar vortex will not surpass the unreported damage of obamacare vortex, it created the part time economy. Formerly 40hr week wage earners are seeking 2 jobs. And 1099rs are the 2nd growing labor segment.

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