The Strange Case Of Suppressed US Macro Data Cycles

Tyler Durden's picture


While banks have been shown to manipulate every asset class (except of course stocks where HFT is merely a liquidity provider), it has largely been left to the Chinese to be blamed for 'plan' what data is released to the world and 'manage' expectations. With conspiracy 'theories' in market and macro data manipulations being proved 'fact'; we thought it intriguing that the US Macro data cycle has rapidly diminished since the financial crisis. This, of course, makes perfect sense in a world where fundamentals no longer matter; nevertheless, compared to the pre-crisis swings, things are different this time.



On a side-note, US macro data has collapsed in the last few days to a one-month low from a five-month high.


Chart: Bloomberg

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Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:14 | 4306054 VD
VD's picture

amplitude's a bitch in centrally planned 'marketz'

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:18 | 4306067 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture

Tits up in June...

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:24 | 4306088 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture


Getting harder to arb this shit. The TBTF must be holding on by their fingernails.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:40 | 4306127 seek
seek's picture

Flatline is right.

Any change in either direction puts the banks at risk. They need complete stasis (along with ZIRP and lending that is both non-ZIRP and above the real inflation rate) just to stay afloat.

I seriously wonder how long it will be before the banks get a new revenue enhancement plan in place to survive -- only outs I see are bail-ins or an Obamacare-like mandate for people to take out loans.

Oh, I have a great idea -- send everyone in the country a bill for their share of the debt, payable in full immediately, and then let the banks finance that! Problem solved. /sarc

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:43 | 4306341 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Well they'll at least confiscate 401K accounts to start with, and issue IOUs against the contents in some kind of new financial instrument that is almost impossible to redeem at par. That should nicely fuck over the middle class in a way that doesn't risk an immediate riot.

Bail-ins of savings accounts are probably inevitable. Probably 20% of accounts holding over $50K, or some other mechanism, again with IOUs maturing in 5-15 years. Inflation will probably devour most of the taken value by then.

Once they start in with those initiatives they might also offer some kind of attractive "war bonds" tax shelter thing with a 30 year maturity payable in FRN that ends up being a tar baby for money. Easy to do, and should sell well in a panic. All they have to do is abandon the dollar later in favor of another currency at $.10 to the $1 and most of the holders will die of old age before anyone notices that their sheltering bonds are worthless at maturity.

I'm not even a banker and I came up with those in like 10 minutes. You can just imagine what the devious fuckers in Congress are cooking up.

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 09:52 | 4307640 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Seek's and your ideas are so disturbing something like them will probably be implemented. I'm going to go french kiss my gold and silver like Spitzer's mistress's toes.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:14 | 4306055 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Oooh, a wedge formation which is going to break out to the downside.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:01 | 4306192 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Its a bullish pennant and its super bullish;  we have a 3/4 chance or breaking out to the upside and going dramatically higher.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:21 | 4306235 rp1
rp1's picture


Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:18 | 4306068 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Looks like it is disappearing into a black hole.

Que Obozo jokes.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:23 | 4306087 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Looks like a set-up for a massive breakout to the upside... hope for anything else and you'll be disappointed. Free market isn't running the show. RIP- business cycle. 

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 20:59 | 4306187 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

US macro data is manipulated, trust it at your own risk.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:06 | 4306208 Mamzer Ben Zonah
Mamzer Ben Zonah's picture

When a patient's electrocardiogram shows declining beat-to-beat variability that is a BAD sign: patient is unfit, and is at high risk for an MI and/or dysrhythmia, either of which can be fatal.

Maybe the economists ought to look to the cardiologists for some advice about what is likely to happen.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:45 | 4306351 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The economists will be thrilled when the economy is finally dead and zombified. All the current twitching and convulsing is just messing up their forcasts.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:10 | 4306215 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Get over it, it's a completely normal symptom of central planning.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 21:13 | 4306229 indio007
indio007's picture

The first casualty of war is the truth.

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 22:35 | 4306527 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Thanks for the fucking GONG SHOW Barry you fucking cocksucker!!!!

Mon, 01/06/2014 - 23:46 | 4306794 Spungo
Spungo's picture

It looks like an uncircumcised penis formation. I think it will limp down by 30 degrees then hit the support boundary of the balls before shooting up into the 1900 range.

Tue, 01/07/2014 - 01:56 | 4307075 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The old hands here will recall my prediction of a sawtooth economy a while back....

QED, bitchez...

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