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Bonds & Stocks Pop As Silver Drops
Despite the best day in the S&P (+0.6%) since the Taper (12/18), this remains the worst start to a year since 2005. The Dow stands out as the best of the bad bunch ( down only 0.25% from 2013 close highs) while Trannies remain the worst. Homebuilders tumbled back to recouple with Financials post-Taper. Treasuries decided to ignore the equity strength and rallied once again (with 10Y now -10bps on the year) even as the USD was well bid back to unch on the week (once again all the vol in the US open to EU close period) with notable CAD weakness to its lowest since May 2010. USDJPY was on-and-off in charge with stocks staying in sync until the EU close, reconnecting briefly in the afternoon, then taking off again. VIX dropped back under 13% (but stocks were relatively outperforming). Precious metals remained in the headlines, this time with weakness, but from the early spike down, they recovered half the losses.
Some recovery today but stocks remain off their 2013 close highs (and worst start to year since 2005)...
S&P 500 took out yesterday's pre-open highs and as opposed to yesterday found support at VWAP today... and dumped to it perfectly at the close
From the Taper, homebuilders have recoupled with Financials and Tech, Staples and Utes remain the underperformers...
Bonds continue to rally...10YTSY -10bps but notably 30Y mortgages are +1bps!
VIX remained well correlated but stocks were notable outperformers from the open...
Once again, JPY carry was in charge into the European close - briefly reconnected - then disconnected into the US close...
Precious metals were monkey-hammered early but rallied back as the day wore on...
The USD rose back to unchanged on the week (led by notable CAD weakness - worst day since Nov 2011 to May 2010 lows)...once again all the vol occurred between US open and EU close...
Year-to-date, correlations are 'odd' across asset classes... strong USD, strong precious metals, strong bonds, weak oil and weak stocks...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Food for thought really - biggest divergence between gold lease rates and spot gold price since gold's top...
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I came here for the BONUS CHART!?!?
C'mon Tyler, throw us TWTR and NFLX bonus charts.
Short ES today, X4, from 1830.75; the recent high was around 1840; it's possible the chart is entering a down channel. We'll see.
So... I guess that the "New Normal" is one's considering the announcement of a taper (12/18) to be the taper itself?
Call me old-fashioned, I guess...
well, there's room for about 20 of these drops left for silver, then -... silver age?
The silver drop today was again synchronized with the London Closing; which leaves New York to "play by itself'; so to speak. When London is open arbitrage takes place and it's more difficult to engineer market price moves; the price is firming up as we approach the Hong Kong opening.
well, there's room for about 20 of these drops left for silver, then -... silver age?
CAD erosion is interesting. HUGE head and shoulders top (spanning four years!) is being confirmed right about now. CAD looks like it could drop a lot more.
And the last time the CAD dropped a lot was in mid 2008.
And we're 10bp on the US 10y with an amost imperceptible pullback in the S&P. Where would yields on the 10y go if the S&P were to lose 50, 100, or more points? My guess---2.5%, at least.
CAD Govt wants it 92-94 range. It'll get there.... just the way things go in today's 'free' markets.
if the 10 year goes above 3% for a sustained period then watch the cascade of margin calls start to come in on the interest rate sensitive derivatives and then watch the whole stinking edifice collapse
Still doesn't feel like a bottom in pms.
Capitulate already so we can resume the bull and rip off some short faces.
All prices are disallocated, I'm not sure how anyone can really assume what fair value is anymore.
Measuring anything in fiat is a fool's game.
$500 Silver if you want it!
Baaaahaaaahaaaaa
I couldn't say what it "feels like". The Silver price chart has an extended narrow range close around $20; in other words it's tightened up with only small deviations. So it'll pop one way or the other. I think the chart looks more like it's going to pop to the upside. there's massive overhead resistance at $22.
this remains the worst start to a year since 2005
Lol. Grasping at the straws arent we now zerohedge. A full 8 days in the year eh?
I used to follow this website daily and then the world did not end in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, etc. Sometime 2 years ago I realized that this site, along with other niche doomer sites are all in it to make money. Sell doom get more clicks. I feel for the souls that traded based on this information.
You sound young.
Here's the deal. The world will never "end," but will continue on, from one disaster to the next. So, for those of us who don't fall victim to the "End Times" thesis, ZH isn't "Doomer Porn" but a play-by-play of the crime in progress.
It's only the young and impatient who believe in an imminent collapse of everything. Now, if you think that's the only value of ZH, well... then the next disaster may very well be your last.
At the end of the day, it's all about survival of the next one.
I don't know if it helps bring new readers in or not, but every chance I get, I describe ZH as; A front row seat on the slow motion train wreck that is Western civilization.
You suffer from recency bias. There were plenty of people like you saying the same thing in 2005, when many of us were predicting the collapse of 2007/08. We looked stupid for about three years there. But people who followed the collective wisdom then will look stupid forever.
The world did not end? No, it didn't. And it won't "end" BUT
You are a frog in a slowly warming fish bowl, sir. The doom and gloom comes from the lack of foundation in our economy. It's hollow growth is a sickly, strung out bubble. Maybe they can't accurately predict the date it will pop...again. But sure as grandpa's got a load in his pants, you can bet the FED will orchestrate another, and another, and on and on into our children's future.
That is certain. So take your BS elsewhere.
aint nobody selling any PHYSICAL Gold or SILVER...
same old bullshit Fed, Treasury dept, and bullion bank bullshit paper games...
"Here’s the entire 2013 calendar year for silver—and as you can tell, it looks quite a bit different than the December chart on its own. But with the noise stripped out for a whole year, the pattern is the same as for gold. An increasing price up until and hour before the London open—and then down hill into the New York electronic market."
http://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net/ee-assets/gsd/yesterday/2013_Intrad...
more for me....FUCK ALL MONEYCHANGERS....
i'm not going to say you're wrong...all i wish to point out is that in markets you can be scammed two ways...one "that there is no gold in Fort Knox" and the other that "in fact there's a billion tons of in there...and other places." The fact the coins are still being minted says "buyer beware" on the LONG end. We know Space X is private...whereas ticker symbol "ORB" is not. That thing is valued a couple of billion and works almost exclusively for the Federal Government (your "Star Wars money" at work.) That rocket goes off tomorrow "because some kid got it in his pea sized brain to always want to go to the moon." He went half the way there today. Believe me "this got ORB moving" because what use is there for NASA is some kid hauls back a rock worth a trillion dollars? With "only and always short Goldman Sachs" now going all in on Solar City and securitized debt for roof top solar "the gig is up." the only question in my view now is will there be a major move militarily speaking somewhere? Russia and Turkey are not life long buddies and there ain't much left of Sarajevo if you get my meaning. In other words lets hope we're talking a Peace Train somewhere because the alternative (the "Arab Spring") looks pretty apparent to me.
Odd... when the naked emperor starts mooning to the blue pills, what will silver do? Not the paper that is..
Since nobody on earth has the ability to control an enormous economy with all its complexity, I'm certain the plans of the planners will fail.
I'd like to see it fall apart today, except it's too cold. I'd rather it hold until the Ides of March. Rioting is more fun in balmy weather.
Some recovery today but stocks remain off their 2013 close highs (and worst start to year since 2005)...
Who fucking cares about 2005? That's a MSM line - tomorrow we will be back into new record highs.
The banks haven't lined up enough bag holders to dump their positions, so they are going to drive the fucking hell out of this market and take it as high as necessary to suck in retail investors.
Earnings season will show as another winner and the shorts are going to take it up the ass again.
Why are you trading at all?
Just stop.
Buy agriculture.
When will pomo be used to short stocks and buy bonds (as stupid as that sounds)......when the ten year hits 3.25
The US financial markets are nothing more than manipulation, fraud and deception. Mirrors the beahvior we see in DC.
I liked the action in the PM sector today ... starting to fill in a bottom here, folks. Same time as the 10-yr looks to be topping. She's staying up there in the 2.90's.
And meanwhile, day-by-day, more are converted to the Church of the Almighty Fed ... that the Fed controls all markets, will not lose control, et cetera.
They fill the pews.