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So You Want Higher Rates?
Some simple bond math: rising rates means lower prices. Holders of rate products, once they anticipate that future prices will fall, sell today to minimize losses. So the question: when the selling of the world's debt begins (and accelerates), especially with everyone urged by central bankers to shun bonds and go for "undervalued" stocks, who buys? We ask because, as the chart below shows, there is quite a bit to sell...
Source: JPM
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"So the question:.............who buys? We ask because, as the chart below shows, there is quite a bit to sell..."
Same people who have been buying to the tune of $1 trillion per year. The Fed.
Why is the Fed printing money to buy these bonds? NO ONE ELSE WANTS THEM.
Hellllooooooooo Mcflyyyyyyyy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kh9PYtmVybU
Here is my one and only prediction for the next year: Interest rates are headed higher no matter what the economy OR central banks do or do NOT do. IOW, interest rates will be significantly higher on January 7, 2015 than they are as of today, regardless of anything.
See you at this time next year, ballers.
No reason to panic.......Cuz Ben told me so..........monster box coming for january delivery.........ehehhehehehee.........
"Stocks are underpriced you should just buy those," said the Fed.
<-- the Fed
<-- No one (there is no market anymore)
EDIT: In response to the question ... "who buys?
Regards,
Cooter
And if the Fed wants to "Unwind" the MBS purchases (Which were essentially stage 2 of the TBTF Banks Bailout), fine, but 10 cents on the Dollar would not reflect well on the Fed's investment prowess??
Lots of folks on Main St are going to get wiped out when this implodes as a result of Financial repression and forcing folks to take on levels of risk which they really should not. Of course, Main St is not the issue and, by the time it collapses, Bennie will be well into his autobiography, which will probably be titled "It was OK when I left".
No....you don't want to buy PMs.
These are not the droids you're looking for.
Would you like to buy a CDS......even though we'll never declare a default?
Don't hear much about that crap anymore.....I wonder why?
where do i get a CDS??? i want one!
You're gonna shoot your eye out kid.
not likely Rabbit.. :-)
There's a second 1/2 to this question. I think most of us do believe the backflush from the debt tsunami will one day come. Who buys? Okay, let's say the Central Banks flood to the rescue.
The next question is where will all the money THEN go that's been in bonds?
THIS is the event I fear. If you have your assets in the wrong place, you get destroyed as the bond sellers gobble up everything. Will it be stocks? gold? real estate? gas? all of the above? So the bond bubble deflation will create secondary bubbles. Only time will tell. Hold on for that ride because it's going to be fun.
Yes, yes. Exactly. You have to game out what they will go into.
And so think about this: consider a world where the 10 year Treasury is at 7% (30+ percent decline - a crash). And everything else is priced off of that.
Does it make sense that stocks real estate and gold are bid to the moon? No, not really. That world will undergo violent economic contraction (and likely actual violence). None of those assets will be worth whatever cash flow they can generate, esp discounted at the then-high interest rates.
So the terror is not that the system is unstable. The terror is that the system is stable.
If yields spike, they will then necessarily crater. There is nowhere for the victims (real-money bond holders) to go en mass.
The only exception I see is food. And by food I mean oil.
You are so not helping with my drinking problem? How about converting "food" to alcohol/fuel?
Good analysis. Bond rates spiking wipes out a massive amount of capital, so asking where it will all go is the wrong question. It will be gone, that's where it will go.
Bond rates soar, massive amounts of capital are wiped out, not just long bond capital, equities capital. Bond crashes ALWAYS precede equity market crashes.
What's left when a world of bubbles this enormous crashes?
Tears and Ashes
That was very T. S. Eliot.
hmmm, disagree, look to japan-have rates went up over last 20 years?
hey, they can remain a lot more solvent than sellers...
two trillion- no problemo.
central planning manipulation-not to be underestimated.
carefull of wishfull thinking and visural hate...
Corporates could collapse, just like they did in 2008, but not necessarily DM sovereign bonds/notes. Look at the US 10y during 2008---price soared. Also look at the JGB, over the last 20 years.
What you're describing is happening right now relative to the way the markets would be if mega investors (other than the Fed) were still buying bonds instead of something else. That's why the stock market is at all time high prices and low yields and why New York penthouse prices are rising at 30% per year.
As Maria likes to say it, "where else ya gonna go".
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGS10/
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MORTG
Good luck.
yes but if SOMEONE FROM THE FED say we are not overvaled, it means, we are probbalay going higher. Do not fight the fed.
This will be interesting how it all play outs, and now TAPERING, but PEOPLE are getting use to the word tapering, which will crash derivatives and send intrest rates up.
in the mean time....
The ADP will be the warm up for the BIG JOBS NUMBER FRIDAY...however....
I think the most interesting chart is the transports, which seems to be pin pointing more downside possibly coming.
SEE HERE=> http://bit.ly/1ieTPQX
SCREW the Pinko COMMIE FED. If you are not part of the solution (STARVE the BEAST), then you are part of the problem. Hiding behind the FED makes you a lap dog of the FED and a Pinko COMMIE nonetheless.....
All of you cowards who worship at the feet of these COMMIE/FASCIST bastards need to get the Hell out of this country. We are the Land Of The FREE---not Pinko COMMIES allowing these psychopaths to plan our lives becasue they THINK they know better. Grow some gonads and quit following these BLIND 'people'...
Probably, but, rates will rise more rapidly at the long end of the curve where, at least where Sov debt is concerned, defeat of this doomed to fail attempt to save the dollar reserve system, will show up first. The next round of QE-which "they" won't call QE- will involve shoring up shorter term debt.
Bulls are all in, no one left to buy but the Fed...
"So the question:.............who buys? We ask because, as the chart below shows, there is quite a bit to sell..."
It is the muppets who so loved the debt that let it be known in the land and throughout the world that the muppets shall buy all the so loved debt. Debt for all muppets, let us leave NO MUPPET BEHIND!!
(pensions, IRAs, banks accounts, itscoming)
IS IT SAFE?
There is about $18T sitting in IRAs This is about equal to the Government's current national debt.
At some point, the Ponzi-iestas will force IRA holders to buy government bonds or take a 50% haircut on their holdings.
They will trot out the line that the world markets are no longer SAFE (pay no attention to the fact it's them who are making it so) and that by allowing the government to hold SAFELY your retirement funds in SAFE government bonds, your lump sum will be SAFELY converted into some sort of SAFE annuity which will yield a SAFE return with no risk. They will offer you the whopping rate of a guaranteed SAFE 4%
Of course, pay no attention that it's a blatant money grab. Pay no attention that at any time they can impose "means testing" to as whether or not you actually need that interest income. Pay no attention that you won't be able to transfer that asset to your heirs. Pay no attention that their 4% rate of return will be taxed down to about 2.5% (making it cheap money for the government). Pay no attention to the fact that the rate of inflation will chew down your after tax return into negative territory
Keep repeating after me .. it will be SAFE... it will be SAFE... it will be SAFE... it will be SAFE.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/hr2035/text
When interest rates begin to rise, buyers will pay based on how high they believe the rates will go. So, no one buys, and in order to sell a bond the issuing agency [corporate or government] will have to increase the rates to attract buyers. Of course, at that point, no one will want those new bonds either and they will be unsold; leading to higher interest rates, and even lower prices for existing bonds.
Rinse and repeat.
Then crash!
Craig
There is no bond market. There is the BernYellen.
It's an odd reality when the banks can fake demand and that is enough to satisfy demand.
The world of finance - one great big game of monopoly with an unlimited bank.
That's why they call it monopoly money.
...and because the whole system depends upon fake demand, the Yellank must print a fresh wave of monopoly money big enough to swamp the USS Nimitz. Otherwise, the monopoly game doesn't just end, but the whole table and game board are overturned.
Long Village Angry Mob Supply® stores, your one stop for torches, pitchforks, tar, feathers, and rope.
"Village Angry Mob Supply®" ... whoa, are you with the NSA or what? I totally had that business model first! It was going to be like Amazon's "river of goods" but more like "river of good ass whippin's".... but Obamacare costs sank it.
<ShakesFist/>
Regards,
Cooter
Madoff and Corzine faked it too.
Uhhh the Government has Nukes, bird flu, black ops killing squads, sound cannons, and a whole lot of hollow point ammunition. You'd better be packing more than pitchforks and rope...
Yes, but they also have bureaucracy to manage that. Just take a look at Afghanistan and Iraq for how well that runs things
are you forshadowing the future of zhers-geehaad of fin. ter.- fighting for justice of money?Liberty?Freedom? epic struggle continues...
If memory serves, in the official rules of Monopoly if the bank runs out of paper bills it is allowed to write the denominations on pieces of paper and continue to issue currency in that manner.
Sound familiar?
Yeah, but in the game , that only happens when you overdevelop properties in order to blast your opponenets with rent and, oh wait a sec pigs are flying.
some rules never change! rents higher-yep. but, sir banker - where will the money(income) come from?
Bond vigilantes? Hahahahahahahhahahahahahaha
No such thing for over 30 years. There is only the Fed. Which is controlled by private owners.
again "Detroit." to the extent that bankruptcy is allowed...it is to be more expensive than the debt that is owed. hence "thousand dollar an hour lawyers." Lehman, AIG, other various "municipalities"...the ACA...these are really expensive processes. at some point someone will make the money real by going all in on full convertibility...either private or public. my money is still on a state actor that cannot print or attach itself to a printer.
Like a Fellon.
Yellin' ain't tellin'.
Old Yeller will buy, that's who.
22:08. Great minds think alike.
"Old Yeller" ... that shit made me laugh. I gotta tell my old man that one!
What ever happened to Old Yeller anyway?
Regards,
Cooter
P.S. Is she always dressed for a funeral? I mean, seriously, she always is in black.
She is dressed for a funeral, Yellen is gonna bury the dollar.
The movie 'Old Yeller' made me cry as a kid. This new version of Old Yeller is going to make everyone cry.
Just to humor the question, Old Yeller went nuts from rabies and was taken out back and shot.
Will Yeller buy with a personal check or an IOU ?
IOUs are very popular these days in the SS and Medicare trusts.
The Treasury has these really cool magical IOUs too with guaranteed payoff at the end (of maturity). This is the End ?
"Old Yellen" will just do QE 14 to buy up the Dow and S&P
Everyone with an IRA or 401k will buy them, because they don't have a choice. I think that's how they will come after the pensions. The market will crash again, wiping out another group of people's retirement nest eggs right as they are set to require, and you will hear a bunch of sob stories. Then the media/ govt will explain to everyone how "capitalism" has allowed Wall Street to run wild and cause another market crash(no mention will be made of gov or fed) and that in order to protect people from "runaway capitalism" or some such drivel, all 401/Ira s must invest some % in the "safety and security" of us gov debt. And just like that they have stolen trillions.
They are arrogant enough to telegraph it before it becomes law. At that point, it becomes math and probability. Do you want to loose 50% to the IRS or 70-100% to a bond crash? Before you get excited over how much that remaining 50% could make in a bond crash just remember, that crash could take out the majority of the counterparties and dealers. Better make damn sure you have sold, settled, and stashed before this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb30nthVDWI
Correct. That will be your signal to fully exit the 401k system. You mean quit my job? If necessary, yes. If you've got loans against it you've used to stack silver, time to pull the rip cord and pay the man his 10%. You'll thank me later. My match is still pretty nice. For every 1k I put in, they put in 667 up to 10%. Do you think it'll stay like that when the goobermint takes it over? Good luck. Also, once that happens your "silver loans" to yourself will now be owed to Uncle Sam. Ruh Roh. When stocks start tanking for real, it's time to start tying up all the 401k and IRA loose ends and get the heck outta Dodge into phyzz. That's the last train out, and there won't be another.
Silver For The People
Its already quietly happened. 401ks no longer offer money market or 'cash' equivalent investments. Changed around 2007 or so. So if u have a 401k, the only thing u can get out to is a 'safe' cash equivalent bond. Makes me sick. Recall we all had the option to cash out w/o paying nutty taxes in 2010. Perhaps every generation has to pay for its sins in America, and every previous/later generation gets one shot to opt out.
I think you're right sbout the way it'll play out, that's why they working on legislationnow to limit bank runs. Its as if they know its inevitable and are just holding back the tide until all the legislative pieces are in place. Perhaps its time to look at some asian investment options.
Eventually the Fed goes from buying 30 % of the US debt to 50% or more.
Actually during some months the Fed has purchased 100% of the issued government debt and some privately sold government debt.
Just like the movie Margin Call, whoever leaves first wins when the building is on fire!
While I agree with the concept, I thought that everyone got screwed in the end of that movie - though there was the implication that those in the know were rotating heavily into gold - so if you meant, those who rotated into gold first win - I definitely can see that :)
Good movie. The owners survived and altered their strategies to live and fight another day. Don't forget, when you're that close to the printing press you know it is all play money anyway so you don't take a paper loss too seriously. It's the real stuff you own that counts. That, and keeping the little people in perpetual debt servitude.
Why is FED so afraid to DEFLATE ??????
- Neo-Keynesian Economic Theory
I believe it will destroy their capital base.
In which country ? heh.
Afraid of shrinkage, what else ? ;-0
Did you see the length on that promise list? That's only the body of the octopus, the rest is a monster.
no .... i want maintenance of purchaing power on the fiat i hold .... STORAGE OF VALUE / PURCHASING POWER (plus interest based on inflation)....
Spit in one hand and wish in the other. What do you have? A Spitcoin!
The wit is sharp in this thread tonight!
Regards,
Cooter
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats.
H. L. Mencken
FORWARD KONZENTRATIONSLAGER!
Morgan/Stanley.
Don't most hold to maturity?
The Fed is the largest current holder of the bond market and there is no way they hold to majority. Nowadays people hold bond funds, and those funds trade their portfolio daily, but you can check their length of holding on their prospectus.
I think most bonds are held in pension and retirement funds which means they are unlikely to be sold even if rates rise.
Yes central banks hold bonds via foreign reserves but I don't think they care about losing money on those holdings.
But.. but... tapeworms?
"...the thought that you can exit from [Fed QE] wherever the balance sheet will be at that time.....in an orderly manner ([Fed] chairman [Bernanke] testified that [the Fed] will give the market plenty of warning), do you know what guys like me are going to do when...[the Fed] sell[s] the first bond out of 4 trillion? and don't think that letting the bonds run off isn't selling. That debt has to be refinanced...if you just let all the bonds run off that is still 4 trillion in selling...it's not till they actually sell the first one, it's till you get the whiff -- what do you think -- what do you think the markets are going to do when they figure out the exit?"
-----------------Stanley Druckenmiller, March 2013
Note: editing and emphasis added = mine
one of the greatest traders ever...and he's getting killed right now. this SHOULD be right...
House slaes are very sluggish in my area and prices are stable or dipping. They say, "it's the weather" but realtors are biting their fingers with rates rising.
What is going to happen is the Fed and its shareholders will compel Congress to REQUIRE ALL pension and money markets to buy UST etc. Who is to say they don't make US taxpayers buy Japanese and EU bonds too.
Maybe they start with just 10% of all assets MUST be UST, etc. And of course, these accounts must be managed by primary dealers too.
More bank consolidation, more bail-ins, more international linking all to require a new international regulatory paradigm to be in place when they hit RESET.
Everything will be flushed, except the debt. Your Liabilities are their Assets after all.
See how that works.
I cashed out all my retirement everything (I am 40-ish) based soley on this premise. I will NEVER invest in any retirement scheme that does not put me 100% in control of my money.
There is so much money in pension funds, money markets, all those sorts of things, that will be required BY LAW to buy the junk. THAT is where the money is coming from; legislated bagholders.
Regards,
Cooter
Soc sec is required to buy (a form of) treasuries and they turned cash flow negative (partly due to ZIRP and partly due to unemployment), what happens when SS gets seriously negative and the net bond buying follows?
401-Ks will buy
"once they anticipate that future prices will fall, sell today to minimize losses."
Isn't that what began in May of 2013 and isn't this selling almost finished if not already completed in the intermediate term?
But what if they just hold them till maturity and the FED prints more money to pay for the money they printed?
They are really fighting to keep rates up dudes. When they soon head down again, the jig will be up. It is called pushing on a string. The credit markets are trillions.
qe is billions. Your illusions will soon be shattered.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nULwgHsVqw
This is good, right?
NEWS FLASH:
President Obama issued an executive order today requiring that a minimum of 50% of all money invested in individual IRAs, 401Ks and similar retirement fund instruments shall be invested in 5 or 10 year US treasury bonds effective 01MAR14.
Look at those bonds fly!
Thump! Thump! Thump! Thump.............................................................!
Just listen to those bond shorts fall!
He just killed millions of them!.
Think I will sell them all and get some precious.
Do you own U.S. government Treasury bonds in your portfolio? Millions of Americans do -- and that's a big problem.
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post--5-moves-to-survive-the-2014-bond-meltdown
Yep, they now have 90% believing it.
I call bullshit. Link to the actual underlying info or zip it.
Does the bond rate include Spider-Man towels?
Janet Yellen will up my FAFSA.
But...will she sterilize it before she swallows it ?
"rising rates means lower prices"...sounds good to me
Watch for a spike higher in rates this week to buy.
I agree, higher rates are coming soon but the market is superbly manipulated. A half percent increase is manageable by the fraudsters. Tell me something I do not know.
China, please for the love of God sell every U.S. Treasury bond/bill you possess.
This is a house of cards, and the sooner it collapses the better.
Fucking PONZI, Jesus H. Christ, DIE FED and Wall Street!!!
Amen
https://pathofmusashi.wordpress.com/2014/01/07/winter-shoes/
They will upon the next big t-bond rally. Deflationary scare will bring it. Janet will have the justification she needs to fire her BOOBZOOKAS. Rates down then up and away.
China owns the rip-cord.
Japan holds the trigger.
Dry powder A students Eb, just keep thinkin dry powder A students.
I'm guessing most of the bond holders are not serious investors trying to front run the fed. They don't panic and sell bonds. I bet most people aren't even aware that bonds have fluctuating prices because there's not much reason to sell the bond. What's really scary is that the interest on bonds is too low, so you can't retire and live on interest alone. Retired people might start selling them until the interest rates rise to a more reasonable number like 4-5% on the 10 year.
Or more reasonably like 10% to 15%...with a chance it could go to 20% again. We have not ever 'been here' before.
And what happens to the US budget deficit then?
KABLOOEY!!
who buys?
A. your mother.
B. shadow banks (inter-bank purchases)
C. Madoff
D. Corzine
E. All of the above.
Lord, will you buy my 30-year ZIRP bonds ? (to the tune of Lord will you buy me a Benz)
China will not sell due to their export dependency. The middle class is weak in China. Growing but still weak compared to the west. Militarily, China can not compete against the US especially in psyops and surveillance. Unlike other falling empires, the US is going to bring everyone down with them. So who here is willing to give up being a loyal consumer in a pre-structured system? After all, pleasing your neo-feudal bosses only requires you make currency and indulge in the fruits of your labor.
Soma, Soylent Green, and Kool Aid to wash it all down with...yumm. Where are the lines queueing up ?
Destroy any of the remaining intestinal flora and fry any good cells remaining in your kidneys.
We are in a transition. I would say vulgar words like, "you fools," but it is simple to analyze the current situation. The middle class in the west must first be diminished not destroyed before the East rises.
Sell Mortimer, Sell!
Here's some more "Higher Rates" for ya to check out.:
http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/health/mmume/californiasealions2013.htm
Too bad it is not updated. Prolly just some bad whale poop that contaminated the water. No need to worry. Breath deep. After all, mammals are mammals, right?
Oh, and speaking of whales, howza bout dis one, Mon?
http://enenews.com/agency-conjoined-baby-gray-whales-found-in-baja-calif...
Makes ya wanna just go out to make babies, eh!
No problem. New epa regs on woodstoves will offset fuku. .gov knows what is important.
Fukushima related, perhaps? Not enough food for both mama and baby seal, so mama leaves them at the door of the emergency room, so to speak?
How does one carry $17,000,000,000,000 forward and services that amount when rates increase? Inquiring minds would like to know.
At some point the debate is over. They're all cooking with water. Simple math will trump central banker's alchemist dreams anytime.
If they reduce the debt via reset or jubilee, it will not be the end of the world. It would be a courageous effort to ensure some semblance of fiscal restoration for future generations. It would be a long overdue admission that liabilities aren't funded and therefore not sustainable. No harm in admitting that nobody could have foreseen how much longer people live and need to be supported.
We have a handful of ultra rich families who are sitting on hundreds of billions of "wealth" which has been derived from the output of nations, the sweat of millions of people. Then we have nations which are trying to survive, trying to cheat and lie in order to keep the show going.
Something has got to give.
Millions of gramps and grannies sitting on annuities, pensions, social security promises. Corp, fed, state and local pensions. University and other institutional endowments, fdic, fema, medicare, sipc, pbgc, etc, etc. Folks won't be so jublilant when it goes jubilee. And it will. Just not voluntarily. That idea, nor any other can save us now.
Nonsense folks. A jubilee is out of any solution. First and foremost, the debt limit has no limit. Look at it as a weapon that will only inflict damage to the recipients. Wealth is going to be destroyed. Without any uncertainty the wealth of the targeted groups and individuals is fundamental to reset the inevitable "crash." But this is far from a jubilee.
This reset must be funded on a premise that wealth can no longer be created and obtained. Innovation can no longer outpace inflation(Peak innovation). In other words, real wealth is no longer available for current and future generations and nothing can be done about it to regain it by traditional means. And that someone to take the blame will be the future. To avoid a rebellion no group nor person must share or take blame.
Prosperity is no longer attainable under the corrupted program we have sponsored and participated in. Real wealth is going to separate from the rest of the world.
I wonder what the US government is thinking during all of this. Do politicians wake up and say to themselves "yep, another day where I don't mention how serious the budget problem is."
I do not think they are intelligent enough to contemplate that subject.
China has said they are not buying T bills to the extent they did in the past....investors fear that rates will go up and are not likely to buy T's now...so who does that leave once the Fed starts tapering? Rates can only go up from here and everyone knows it. Why not wait till you get 5% or more? But can the US manage 17T with rates at 5%......I guess they won't pay that much for a while but it will still mean higher borrowing costs........solution?? Keep rates down by buying more bonds? Given the track record of the Fed that would be my guess....imho this is all about rates and the debt. As long as there is no 'fiscal solution' the Fed has to keep buying bonds............
Dammit you unsustainable permacultivating aphid, use your intelligence to think beyond what the Fed is doing. In a sound economic model your statement is relevant, but the current situation is far from it.
Europe's tentacles never eased their suction over the US. Now, the US is done. Next up is Asia. The wealth that is needed to sustain the current paradigm is concentrated in Asia.
Europe first had the gold, then the US, now it is Asia.
The US is drunk and never paying its tab. Instead, it is getting everyone at the pub drunk with it and going to bankrupt the owner of the bar. This is what it wanted when it first ordered a drink and the owners of the debt are the American citizens.
The drunks are heading to the next party. Next stop Asia.
"Does it make sense that stocks real estate and gold are bid to the moon [if interest rates rise]? No, not really. That world will undergo violent economic contraction (and likely actual violence)."
This is not entirely correct. Interest rates are definitely tied to real estate, so rising rates would crash the real estate market, but not the gold market. While rates are rising, this means bonds are falling in value. Only "contrarian" investors buy things on the way down. Most people only buy things that are going up. First the bond market crashes, causing interest rates to rise. This then crashes the equity and real estate markets. The only safe place to be is in commodities at that time. You wait until equities bottom out, you sell your commodities at sky high prices, and buy equities at Black Friday prices. Then interest rates fall, your equities go to the moon, the fed raises rates, you rotate into bonds and wait for equity to crash again.
I don't know. I'm just making shit up :D
If interest rates keep going up. how about 1-3 month CD's? keep getting higher and higher interest in relative safety
trillion-billion-zillion-million!
million-million!
billion-billion!
zillion-trillion!
trillion!
Whatever. People will look back and think "how could we have been so stupid, of course you can't just print irredeemable money."
We get our jollies by giving her our money (i.e. printing), and then she spends it, or throws our money back at us.
Its just like having a spendthrift wife with a serious jones for Franklins.
That's basically the pure fiat/ponzi right ?
And we don't see it ?
Catherine Austin Fitts is on Coast to Coast am tonight.
I officially dislike what she has to say.
She perpetuates the mirage to suck money from her clients.
The FED directly clicks to the printer friendly version of this article.
Lichens in Alaska were tested in June 2011 and had extremely high levels of both Cesium 134 and Cesium 137. Around 6000 to 8000 pCi/ kg.
And the ratio of 134 to 137 was around .8. What that means is that all of this cesium is directly attributed to Fukushima.
Here is how it works. CS137 has a half life of 30 years, CS134 has half life of 2 years. So if the radiation was from 4 years ago, the CS would fall to around 25% of where it started.
It just so happens that the 137 and 134 quantities are about a 1 to 1 ratio at the beginning, with some variance based on the degree of fuel burnup. Color chart below shows actual test results for Fuku. The ratio was about .85.
The actual ratio measured in the lichens was right around .80 on average. So all of this is due to Fukushima
Got it? The lowest level of the food chain is highly contaminated. That was 2011, they are not planning on testing again until 2016. Does that make any sense?
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2014/01/cd134-cs137-ratio-and-food-...
Well, we've been reassured that the 5X normal radiation levels of the water at Half Moon Bay here in Northern CA, are in no way due to Fukushima. They are, according to county officials, I kid you not, perhaps due to "red painted disposable eating utensils."
http://www.hmbreview.com/news/health-officials-respond-to-beach-radiatio...
Please, please, William Banzai, read the article and do a "red painted disposable eating utensil" artwork.
This one had a Cesium 134/137 "signature" which also sets the timeframe and nails Fukushima beyond a shadow of a doubt. So if its in Alaska it will eventually be in Cali
You lost me in the dieloution stage!
Hilarious! Ouch
your pension fund will buy...
Why would anyone sell if the Gov Bond gets zero% harid cut according to Basel III
I.E: Detroit
Tyler
OT: Looks like the Battle between Suni Vs Shia' has moved from Syrai to Iraq, Where now the Americans, Russians, French and IRan agree to fight "Al-Qaida"
The case of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who does not know a year ago that he was alive or dead , image disclose the conditions of Iraq as a whole, this country slept on a sea of ??oil, which sold hundreds of billions but he does not wake up to live a stable life and tranquility for its citizens , but suffer death daily Palmfajkhat wars between the parties and the mafia , and sects and reverently sits majestically among the most corrupt countries in the world .
Moving Iraq towards new elections in moves his army to besiege the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, and the storm , and declares one of its officials of security that ten thousand volunteers are ready to fight with the Iraqi Army for the Liberation of Anbar cities of organization ' Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant ' , in the recipe for a sectarian war between Shiites and Sunnis .
Cast last topic very enthusiastic from the United States , Washington is not seen in the Islamic world is the need to maintain Israel's security and the threat of the 'norm ' accelerated the delivery of military hardware to Iraq missiles Hellfire and reconnaissance planes, unmanned aircraft Eagle and the Raven , and contact Vice-Chair of the Prime Minister Iraq Nouri al-Maliki , expressing ' support for Iraq's efforts in the fight against al-Qaeda ' , and the embassy in Baghdad, in coordination with security forces and the Iraqi military .
The umbrella of the international coverage of the Iraqi military action also included Russia, Iran, France expressed its support for their governments to fight ' terrorists ' , but the question is silent : any terrorists ?
Itagaby the world what is happening in Iraq, but the Iraqis know the dimensions of the political game by the Nuri al-Maliki , has replied with 44 deputies announced their resignations from the parliament , as a response by politicians Many such as Iyad Allawi and Saleh al-Mutlaq and Ahmed al-Alwani , MP and one of the leaders of the sit- in Anbar (which punished collared ) , as well as tribal elders and the elders of the mosques , as well as some Shiite leaders such as Muqtada al- Sadr, who appealed to the Iraqi military not to fight ' any point of the same is motivated by sectarian prejudice familiar with your reputation goes Bakotkm ' he said.
Employs machine Nuri al-Maliki media issue of the fight against the 'norm ' to justify its attack on Iraqi provinces demanding legitimate rights and fair and struggling through peaceful struggle and civil Maliki government , like its sister Arab , narrowing more narrow struggle peaceful , civil and trying by all means turn it into a work of violent justify Tnkalha and suppression of its citizens to complement the natural Sirortha which feeds on the corruption and tyranny and employment abroad .
Overlapped game Nouri al-Maliki moves with regional and international resolve the Syrian crisis and imposed the expulsion of the organization ' Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant ' ( Daash ) of Syria , and assembled to hit in Iraq , but the desires of regional and international ignoring deliberately the role of al-Maliki himself in the creation of the reasons for the growth of this organization to be used in fueling sectarianism in Iraq , which is the antidote you live by the government of al-Maliki and his entourage corrupt .
Ignores the world the role of al-Maliki and the class of beneficiary in disrepair great solution creaturely Iraq and its meaning and its role in the Arab world , and that it was not possible to get without a marriage of convenience , which has between America and Iran , which mean practically hit the immune system of the Iraqi people by widening the daily killing and slaughter, and industrialization and sectarian discrimination .
' Daash ' is a reaction to a brutal and irrational on this agreement the U.S. Iran to break the back and destroy Iraq , and emptied of his mind and scientific spirit of the Arab , but ' Daash ' is also the image of the beast in the mirror , and here we understand how to plan al-Maliki and his entourage do not upright without continuing trapping and killing and bombing and sectarian , and the only conclusion from this that the road in front of the Iraqi people to get rid of the image is to get rid of the monster himself .
Leads Maliki army and ' volunteers ' alleged (which is encrypted code to inflame frustration Shiites and directed against their fellow Sunnis ) about the massacre of fuel Sunnis and Shiites together , which , as genocide ongoing at the hands of al-Assad in Syria , are now with the blessing of the poles of the world : Russia and America , while Israel and Iran, watching happily to crush Arab capitals .
This is bullish for the DOD
The Neocon strategy that the US embarked on in Pak/Afghan, using Gen Zia as their point man; like an Asian Pinochet; to initiate the Taliban creation and to push back Soviet incursion into Afghan; furthered by use of Saddam as point man in the US/SAUD fight against Ayatollah Iran (all planned by the Brez/Kissinger legacy via the CIA and Saudi Salafist bend which spawned Ben Laden/Al Qaeda as spin off of a more radical form of Muslim Brotherhood --the guys that murdered Anwar Sadaat), is now reaching terminal resolution in the decay of Pax Americana plays both in Pak/Afgh and Iraq; as their convoluted and inefficient proxy wars in Libya/Syria truly show.
PAx Americana is now tied up in knots to protect the indefensible : A Salafist Saud regime and a Zionist Templar regime, partners in this regional manipulation to protect OIL the blood line of today's world.
The big provisional winner is this theocratic construct of Iran. It is the regional template that will emerge as the best compromise in this convoluted world of the ME where obscurantism and illogic shake hands with the nerve centre of modern world; the Oil fountainhead of "our non negotiable way of life"-- with a burgeoning Turkey on the sidelines-- under the shadow of the Gazprom led Russian bear.
Can the one eyed west still lead the blind ME ? Al Qaeda today in the muslim world is a recrudescence of the ancient HAshashin sect, whereas Iran theocracy today is a medieval ideology inspired recrudescence of the autocratic 20 th century "bottom up" Communist contrarian breed that spawned Gen Giap in Nam. It won the Commies the war but it lost them the subsequent peace.
Life stays a bitch for the obscurantists, amongst which the current "Septimius Severus" Potus regime of "Patriot Act/Gitmo/ NSA pumped/FED dumped, MIC/Carlyle led USA, abetted by a corrupt Congress, is the prime example.
The big winners are the global oligarchs as the "democracy meme" DC people lose out in this awesome reset, work in progress.
Inevitability. This shows how it will implode and has to do so sooner rather than later, period. Yet we all go along with it, till it does. Humans (effectively) voting to be wiped out. Crazy!
91 T of USD denominated bonds and T notes and rising every day?
All held in PDs and shadow banking?
All int arb in derivative plays to the tune of 400 T ?
The real economy sits on a pile of 91 T treasury notes; while the shadow economy has derivative bets to a notational value of 400-500 T interest arb casino trades that deliver juicy margins to ZIRP fed banks?
Is that the true shit pile of the USD banksta system; all spiced with side insurance guaranty bets called CDS to protect OTC players from the exuberant hubris of other players; like the Government bond markets; and all enhanced further by 250 T of currency war bets on the Forex market (to the tune of daily transactions of 5T)...?
And all this money generates profit in Caymanista accounts to the tune of 35T growing every day on the belief that WS stock evaluation just like the USD Bond market (along with Euro, Yen and £ bond markets) can grow and stay healthy like the proverbial BEANSTALK of Jack ?
What happens when Bond rates hit 4 % as this pulls the plug on WS stocks and makes operation Twist/LTRO of past plays a road to doom and mega fixed interest asset bust; as totally yield unsustainable...?
Where is the true Economic growth that JUices the Beanstalk?
How can it grow when fossil fuels are now hitting peak cheap conventional oil and Fracking tight oil or Tar Sands means low EROEI balance and they have depletion rates per well that kills their sustainablity; aka mega law of diminishing returns applies to them, the more we sing "drill baby drill"?
For those of you who are interested on how the accumulated banking debt could be reduced in EU without going towards the "mutually joint and several" bonding of Eurobonds that Merkel despises here is an alternative view as published at Naked Capitalism :
Yanis Varoufakis: Why Reinhart and Rogoff are Wrong About the Eurozone’s Debt Structure and the Costs of Debt Mutualisation | naked capitalism
I notice that ZH in its libertarian logic never investigates this line of thought; just saying.
Maybe ZH's non editorial logic is responsible for this one track minded ethos where the only route out of this mess is "let the banks go belly up" and then plan a reset in a healthy free market restored environment. Which IMO means a return to the regressionary and xenophobic, populist spiral we see unfurling everywhere in the world, very reminiscent of the 1930s mindset. Debt Jubilee in one form or another has to be an option to put on the table along with ending casino plays. All paths to that end should be debated.
is there a problem here or what. nobody is running this. Even if there were a solution there isn't a entity capable of implenting it until we have a reset and a powerful leader reveals himself . ben carson maybe
In the Euro zone there is only one leader since 2009 : Mutti Merkel. And her ability to cooperate with the international Oligarchy represented by Draghi at ECB has been limited by her dictat.
If the current calm in EU does not lead to growth and Banks continue to be strapped down; the ECB pump will start cavitating; as the currency war which effects Euro competitivity is now an adjustment variable hampering southern productivity growth.
Then the ECB will turn to Mutti and say your call and she will bail in bigtime to avoid Germany carrying the debts of others.
And thats when the Oligarchs will fall out. Bail ins mean that Caymanista Land worldwide; aka UK islands, Luxembourg, etc.; becomes Cyprus....
Head for the blankets ...as all bets will be off then if she balks the US dictat of "our money your problem, our wealth your misery"...
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
What?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE
Whether bonds go up or down, I make this prediction:
The banksters will own you and everything you own and everything you want to own, in fact, they already do, it's just not guite evident yet. They will try to make it look like you have a chance at owning something. That is how it is, and all speculation or word-games are just that.
When QE1 ended stocks tanked and bonds rallied as a safe haven alternative. Likewise when QE2 ended. There are ONLY 2 reasons why bond yields might soar:
1) A self-sustaining expansion in the US economy. There is ZERO chance of that with the damage done to the US financial system and the failure or inability to repair it.
2) QE4, whatever that is, the Fed's next (final?) experiment in non-traditional monetary policy. Maybe something that tanks the Dollar. Who knows.
Until then, since QE3 cannot continue, it must end. And since the US stock market cant survive without it, it will fall. And in THAT scenario, not some ceteris paribus vacuum where only bonds are stressed, maybe people will think 2% offers value.
Especially if they just want their money back. In 2008 they even bought T Bills with negative yields.
Yes, yeilds will rise. I think that was the subtle implication of the chart. Trillions are dollars in bonds were purchased at abnormally low rates. As QE ends and rates self adjust, those holding bonds will begin loosing money and start to sell. Like a gentle snow on an mountain's unstable snow bank, we know not when the avalanche will start only that its highly probable.
QE is not ending. Yellen is still buying 75 billion each month. Insiders will always make money. That is their responsibility and Nothing has changed in that regard. The question is can the US service its debt with higher interest rates? Yes. Absolutely. 20 trillion here we come. The next administration will hit 30 trillion. It is the only way to transition to Asia. Drinks anyone?
I thought the debt was a rough indicator for the common man and once it hit 25 trillion then it would be unserviceable. Double that number and perhaps we have a number in which a Sultan, an oligarch, and a dynasty could relate too.
"And since the US stock market cant survive without it, it will fall."
it won't, cause nobody would want to sell their stocks due to missing alternatives. the question in the article should be who sells?