It's been one of the worst years for gold in a generation. A flood of outflows from gold ETFs, endless tax increases on gold imports in India, and the mirage (albeit a convincing one in the eyes of many) of a supposedly improving economy in the US have all contributed to the constant hammering gold took in 2013.
Perhaps worse has been the onslaught of negative press our favorite metal has suffered. It's felt overwhelming at times and has pushed even some die-hard goldbugs to question their beliefs… not a bad thing, by the way.
To me, a lot of it felt like piling on, especially as the negative rhetoric ratcheted up. Last year's winner was probably Goldman Sachs, calling gold a "slam-dunk sale" for 2014 (this, of course, after it's already fallen by nearly a third over a period of more than two and a half years—how daring they are).
This is why it's important to balance the one-sided message typically heard in the mainstream media with other views. Here are some of those contrarian voices, all of which have put their money where their mouth is…
- Marc Faber is quick to stand up to the gold bears. "We have a lot of bearish sentiment, [and] a lot of bearish commentaries about gold, but the fact is that some countries are actually accumulating gold, notably China. They will buy this year at a rate of something like 2,600 tons, which is more than the annual production of gold. So I think that prices are probably in the process of bottoming out here, and that we will see again higher prices in the future."
- Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, told CNBC viewers to "buy gold if they believe in math… Longer term, I think gold goes to $5,000 over a number of years. If they continue to print money at the current rate, I think it could be multiples of that. I see a slow steady rise punctuated with some sharp upward moves."
- Jim Rogers, billionaire and cofounder of the Soros Quantum Fund, publicly stated in November that he has never sold any gold and can't imagine ever selling gold in his life because he sees it as an insurance policy. "With all this staggering amount of currency debasement, gold has got to be a good place to be down the road once we get through this correction."
- George Soros seems to be getting back into the gold miners: he recently acquired a substantial stake in the large-cap Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and kept his calls on Barrick Gold (ABX).
- Don Coxe, a highly respected global commodities strategist, says we can expect gold to rise with an improving economy, the opposite of what many in the mainstream expect. "You need gold for insurance, but this time the payoff will come when the economy improves. In the past when everything was falling all around you, commodity prices were soaring out of sight. We had three recessions in the 1970s and gold went from $35 an ounce to $850. But this time, gold is going to appreciate when we start getting 3% GDP growth."
- Jeffrey Gundlach, bond guru and not historically known for being a big fan of gold, came out with a candid endorsement of the yellow metal: "Now, I kind of like gold. It's definitely very non-correlated to other assets you may have in your portfolio, and it does seem sort of cheap. I also like the GDX."
- Steve Forbes, publishing magnate and chief executive officer of Forbes magazine, publicly predicted an impending return to the gold standard in a speech in Las Vegas. "A new gold standard is crucial. The disasters that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are inflicting on us with their funny-money policies are enormous and underappreciated."
- Rob McEwen, CEO of McEwen Mining and founder of Goldcorp, reiterated his bullish call for gold to someday top $5,000. "We now have governments willing to seize their citizens' assets. We now have currency controls on the table, which we haven't seen since the late 1960s/early '70s. We have continued debasement of currencies. And the economies of the Western world remain stagnant despite enormous monetary stimulation. All these facts to me are bullish for gold and make me believe the price will bounce back relatively soon."
- Doug Casey says that while gold is not the giveaway it was at $250 back in 2001, it is nonetheless a bargain at current prices. "I've been buying gold for years and I continue to buy it because it is the way you save. I'm very happy to be able to buy gold at this price. All the so-called quantitative easing—money printing—by governments around the world has created a glut of freshly printed money. This glut has yet to work its way through the global economic system. As it does, it will create a bubble in gold and a super-bubble in gold stocks."
And then there's the people who should know most about how sound the world's various types of paper money are: central banks. As a group, they have added tonnes of bullion to their reserves last year…
- Turkey added 13 tonnes (417,959 troy ounces) of gold in November 2013. Overall, it has added 143.6 tonnes (4,616,847 troy ounces) so far this year, up 22.5% from a year ago, in part thanks to the adoption of a new policy to accept gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks.
- Russia bought 19.1 tonnes (614,079 troy ounces) in July and August alone. With the year-to-date addition of 57.37 tonnes—second only to Turkey—Russia's gold reserves now total 1,015 tonnes. It now holds the eighth-largest national stash in the world.
- South Korea added a whopping 20 tonnes (643,014 troy ounces) of gold in February, and now carries 23.7% more gold on its balance sheet than at the end of 2012."Gold is a real safe asset that can help (us) respond to tail risks from global financial situations effectively and boosts the reliability of our foreign reserves holdings," said central bank officials.
- Kazakhstan has been buying gold every month, at an average of 2.4 tonnes (77,161 troy ounces) through October. As a result, the country's reserves have seen a 21% increase to 139.5 tonnes from a year ago.
- Azerbaijan has taken advantage of a slump in gold prices and has gone from having virtually no gold to 16 tonnes (514,411 ounces).
- Sri Lanka and Ukraine added 5.5 (176,829 troy ounces) and 6.22 tonnes (199,977 troy ounces) respectively over the past year.
- China, of course, is the 800-pound gorilla that mainstream analysts seem determined to ignore. Though nothing official has been announced by China's central bank, the chart below provides some perspective into the country's consumer buying habits.
China ended 2013 officially as the largest gold consumer in the world. Chinese sentiment towards gold is well echoed in a statement made by Liu Zhongbo of the Agricultural Bank of China: "Because gold has capabilities to absorb external economic shocks, growth of its use in the international monetary system will be imminent."
And those commercial banks that have been verbally slamming gold—it turns out many are not as negative as it might seem…
- Goldman Sachs proved itself to be one of the biggest hypocrites: while advising clients to sell gold and buy Treasuries in Q2 2013, it bought a stunning (and record) 3.7 million shares of GLD. And when Venezuela decided to raise cash by pawning its gold, guess who jumped in to handle the transaction? Yes, they claim the price will fall this year, but with such a slippery track record, it's important to watch what they do and not what they say.
- Société Générale Strategist Albert Edwards says gold will top $10,000 per ounce (with the S&P 500 Index tumbling to 450 and Treasuries yielding less than 1%).
- JPMorgan Chase went on record in August recommending clients "position for a short-term bounce in gold." Gold's price resistance to Paulson & Co. cutting its gold exposure, along with growing physical gold demand in Asia, were cited among the main reasons.
- ScotiaMocatta's Sunil Kashyap said that despite the selloff, there's still significant physical demand for gold, especially from India and China, which "supports prices."
- Commerzbank calls for the gold price to enter a boom period this year. Based on investment demand from Asian countries—China and India in particular—the bank predicted the yellow metal will rise to $1,400 by the end of 2014.
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in spite of lower price forecasts for gold this year, reiterated they remain "longer-term bulls."
- Citibank's top technical analyst Tom Fitzpatrick stated gold could head to $3,500. "We believe we are back into that track where gold is the hard currency of choice, and we expect for this trend to accelerate going forward."
None of these parties thinks the gold bull market is over. What they care about is safety in this uncertain environment, as well as what they see as enormous potential upside.
In the end, the much ridiculed goldbugs will have had the last laugh.
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FOFOA sez gold will go to "$55,000" (or more) once the paper burns and gold reaches its place as the best Store of Value, the purest form of wealth.
'Nuff said.
Gold, fishez!
People who can't handle the heat need to stay out of the kitchen. Gold is not some get rich quick scheme. The weak hands will always get flushed out because of the volatility that lies in the manipulation.
If you are fretting over a 10% - 20% down swing you are investing in the wrong thing. Cream rises to the top and so do the smartest minds. For those of us who happily sit on even one gold coin, not caring how much we paid for it, we have the satisfaction that no one else on the block has what we have.
Gold bitchez.
SG, wise words, I had to keep it short...
YES, buying gold is for those with strong hands (never sell) and strong stomachs (volatile, in part due to manipulation).
Insurance against financial calamity AND gold being an "independent vector" (price moves not well correlated with other assets) make gold the single best diversification for those without any PMs.
That Soul is more than glowing tonight, it is yellow hot!
EDIT:
FOFOA has a new article out today. It starts from the very beginning (1997) when Another and FOA first started writing. Fascinating.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/
blah blah blah please someone just call me the minute that Cramer tells his crowd to dump their gold. Then i'm all in. ITV
If you need someone to tell you what to do, by all means. Me I could give a fuck what Cramer says, I haven't seen his mouth move in almost a year.
Out of sight, you know....
Gold is going to dip below a $1000 and may go down as far as 750-800. This will happen within the next 1.5 to 2 years. I'm a total bear and a contrarian as it relates to the whaky Gold Bugs. It would be unwise IMHO to even think bull market.
FYI:
"Gold headed for worst performance since 1981"http://www.mining.com/gold-headed-for-worst-performance-since-1981-36871...
Harry Dent sure thinks so, just let him tell you...
http://harrydentpredictions.com/
oh for chrissake guys ... uh, ok harry anus says this and some doofus on ZH says first it's goin here at this time then to here in 14-18 months then back to here .... pleeeeezz who the eff do you people think you are ?! here's a clue ... nobody has no idea where or when it's going anywhere , okay ?! it could go to effin 200 or 8000 , okay ?! allz i know is that au has a multi-hundred/thousand-year history of successfully serving as an effective wealth-storage mechanism/asset/currency/whatever-the-eff-u-wanna-call-it ... and that's all i need to know ! ITV
Here's the real story about GOLD in India.
Feud Between USA And India Goes Prime Timehttp://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=3164
Amen, ITV...
Gold and silver are their own savings account. Period.
LOL....The only thing Harry will do is put a huge "Dent" in your portfolio. Gold has been a terrible investment since 1980 when adjusted for inflation.
Shite
And why pick 1980 as your baseline year for gold instead of 1990, or 2000, or 2005, or hell, just about ANY other year, huh?
Because you are a disingenuous asswipe, that's why.
Now go take a dump. Get all that pro-fiat bullshit out of your system, and lay us a nice baby Nadler.
And don't forget to g-r-u-n-t while you do.
"Now go take a dump." I did akak, on your pointy little head! :-o
And yet you still cannot make anything other than the most superficial, erroneous and laughably idiotic argument against gold.
I have chunks of much larger anti-gold trolls in my stool. You're just a speck of corn.
"I have chunks of much larger anti-gold trolls in my stool." I'm not anti-gold, just the last 30 years. Speakn' of corn, I had corn on the comb tonight, I would sift through that "stool" I dumped on your pointy little head, you just might find a kernel or two!
So can I presume that you also drive by focusing on the rear-view mirror?
PS: Equities have overall been net losers in real terms for the last 14 years, with the Year 2000 Dow (have to be specific when talking about WHICH Dow is under discussion) being down over 40%, so why do you defend holding stocks and not level the same specious arguments you make against gold against equities as well?
Dow Jones Mr. akak. Just sayn' there are other investment much, much better than gold. I have no issue what you think or what you believe, I value basic freedoms, autonomy, and individual freedom deeply. I just have a different point of view but gold bugs have a way of demonizing anyone that is contrary their, often times, narrow minded belief even when basic facts are produced. Go on doin what your doin Mr. akak, live long and prosper!
Gold is not an investment, it is simply money, and by holding it one is merely saving one's wealth, hopefully through the looming and inevitable financial and monetary catastrophe and bad times to come.
I have no problem with traders, but I do have a problem with dishonest and disingenuous misrepresentation, bullshit and falsehoods presented as fact, as you have done here.
And I can't help but notice that you conveniently sidestepped around the fact that there is no such thing as "holding the Dow", as there is NO single Dow Jones Index, as that index is regularly redefined by dropping out the lagging and declining stocks and adding new and rising stocks in their places. It is specious and utterly misleading to talk about "THE Dow" over a period of many years or especially decades, as the composition of "the Dow" would have changed significantly or radically over the intervening period, making any long-term comparisons of its values completely irrelevant and meaningless.
FOFOA sez gold will go.....
For all you new kids.....FOFOA stands for.....Friend Of Friend Of ANOTHER.
The year was 1997.
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html
Seeing Darth Soros wade into the miners camp sure makes me skittish.
I trust that assclown about as much as I trust any progressive fascist!
Z-E-R-O
Owning Gold is Silly.. you guys need to get with the Times and BUY STOCK NOW!!!! (Dow 17,000 Here we Come!)
How silly was buying gold in 1999, 2000, 2001 at $260-270 with today's price at $1200? Was buying stocks (DOW close to 10 000) at that time much smarter?:-)
akak...you make a very important point. Gold is MONEY, not an investment. When comparing gold performance over the years, one needs to compare it's purchasing power to other forms of MONEY (ie, fiat) as opposed to other forms of investments.
Gold does not provide income, is not supposed to return huge capital gains, and should not be looked as something that will be sold for a profit to buy a Ferrari.
Those of us who buy physical gold (and silver) do it for certain, specific reasons. Continuing to try to educate those who put physical gold and silver into the category of an investment, trade, etc. is a futile effort.
You're not contrary to beliefs, you're contrary to history.
I doubt you're older than 25.
"You eat pieces of SHIT for BREAKFAST?"
Again, same question someone else asked; Why do you pick 1980? It discredits the point I think you are trying to make. You've got gold right after a parabiloc rise and equities about to start the longest bull market in history.
That said, I think there is something to the demographics angle that Harry Dent pitches, (baby boomers spending years during the bull market and now boomers in their saving years) but I don't think it is the whole story. That in itself is not the reason we are where we are regarding the state of the economy. A contributing factor? Definately.
Back to killin' snakes
Just kicking the shit out of the obvious Mr. Mongoose.
nope, yer just trollin'
everything but food has been underperformed in dollars, euros, etc., adjusted for inflation. the DOW is below break-even for 20 years of inflation too.
Gold has met it's bottom in $1200 range. It will not go south from that. Wait until they raise the debt next month! Whee!
I hear shit like this since 2003. I well remember how, in 2003, all the media screaming that buy gold - it's stupid and useless.
My gold investment from 2003, today gave me 300% of the profits. It is now 300%, with unprecedented 30 years of falling gold prices! LOL
your claim requires preconditions.
To be true interest rates must be over 15% for all bonds and bank accounts. ALL.
Housing prices must also spike up at least 80%.
If these conditions are not met your prediction is impossible.
These correlated changes also require oil to be no more than $50/barrel.
GO on, try to prove these things will happen.
They all move together.
We simply have to get over this sense of "needing a strong stomach". People just can't get it through their heads that the successful trade in gold is physical ownership (in your posession). This is it, this is the winning trade. Not converting gold back to more fiat but converting useless fiat into gold and storing the gold outside the banking system.
This must be a long term proposition because the plunge protection team in the US must by defintion defend the US dollar. They will keep hammering gold to prevent it achieving it's rightful place as real money in the minds of the masses. We all know this before going into the trade. It is going to take ages though. Fiat aint going away any time real soon. By owning gold you a betting on the collapse of fiat. This is a bloody big bet, betting on the end of system that's been in place decades upon decades isn't exactly a sure fire thing over a small time horizon.
Even when gold does achieve it's rightful place as money, don't be at all suprised if TPTB impose a windfall profit tax on you. It will happen. We suckers cannot be allowed to win. You can mark it on your darned calendar, This is going to happen. TPTB will short the stock market, go long gold and then tax the plebs of their windfall gains. This will be hitting the ball out of the park in the finale of the greatest wealth transfer in history. Keep your gold outside the banking industry, deny all knowledge of ownership, be prepared to sign false affadavits that you either lost it or or it got stolen and do not declare any gains on your tax returns.
This is war.
Only 1% - 3% (Americans) own ANY investment gold, likely that is nearer to 1%. Everyone else thinks gold is "risky". And I have found it very hard to convince anyone in my family to buy any PMs. One cousin, that's it (and two guys I know), but they might have bought anyway without me to egg them on...
I have my doubts that TPTB will be able to windfall tax the gold. What if you never sell it?
:)
Come for my gold, get my lead...
"And I have found it very hard to convince anyone in my family to buy any PMs."
Perharps this is why: Since 1980 comparitively to present, those who invested $1k in gold with a return of around $1370 now compare that if you made the same investment in the Dow which yielded around $17,000 plus dividends. No wonder they haven't listened to you, just sayn' DCRB.
I started buying gold in 1985 or so. It is diversification. Our family (esp. at that time) was loaded up on stocks, and, sure, we all made money in the boom. I started buying gold more heavily in 1999, as I had starting my long process of cashing out of stocks. I still own some stocks, but not nearly as much as before. And it's OK that my participation in the latest stock rally is fairly small, I sleep very well.
Understood, however many pin their hopes on the twinkly stuff and have for the last 30yrs. The time isn't right but will be within the next couple of years, possible as soon as this year.
I like how you pick that old top on gold to start your argument. You know, you ain't playing with high school kids in here.
How about we start the chart with Rome or some shit way back. Now how much would gold have done for you vs some piece of dog shit IOU?
LOL, Rome? Comaratively, historically, the U.S. is following the same basic behaviorial pattern as Rome did in it's decline. Doesn't look good!
for gold it looks amazing, for the empire itself, not so much.
Gotta wonder where all these idiots were at the end of 2012 when gold was OBVIOUSLY entering a bear market. Casey yet again puts together a list of (mostly) dumbasses towing the party line that it's always good to buy gold. So helpful!
People who continue to hang on the word of these charlatans are real sadists.
That said, gold does look a bit healthier at the moment.
Actually it's going to get quite anemic with a short burst of vitality which will be short lived. Plan on it dipping down, down, down....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRlj5vjp3Ko
nope, gold will be 2500 USD per oz troy this year.
Again, I don't get what you mean by healthier. Gold is relatively static throughout history. It appears at a well know rate of increase of a couple of percent per year. Honestly, we are so indoctrinated that fiat money is the base that we don't even realise we're doing it. What you should say is the dollar is looking a bet weaker at the moment. It's subtle but so pervavsive in our mind set. I wonder how we'd handle it if, hpothetically, fiat went away all together and we dealt with actual gold and or silver coins (just hypothetically mind you). What would people say, my gold coin isn't doing so well today . . . . . . . . absurd isn't it?
Your comment is nonsensical. If you're buying a latte you're probably not thinking the value of USD vs. beans, if you're a FX trader obviously you're very cognizant of its relative value minute to minute.
By healthier I mean the bloodletting seems to have subsided a bit and has a bit of support by various factors, not necessarily vs. the usd.
I am precisely thinking of the value in the way you assume I would not or should not.
I value all things in terms of tangibles, not dollars, the only "intangible" being "time".
Time is not something one contains or stores but it is a direct measure of the physical universe unable to be duplicated by humans.
"What you should say is the dollar is looking a bet weaker at the moment." Europe is collapsing under the archaic ideology of socialism BOTA, capital will flee Europe to America and actually strenghen the dollar. Nice try.
Yeh sure GRUNT, all these things may happen. But the dollar is fucked, long term because the Fed/Congress treat it with contempt. Come on, you know as well as I that you simply can't trust any human being over a long enough period of time not to abuse fiat currency that takes no effort to produce. It's fucked, not today, not tomorrow but sometime in the reasonably near future - say inside 10 years if it's lucky. You've got the tremendously huge inertia of the current system holding it in place at the moment but the water is lapping steadily higher on the tub we call the US. The sucker is going down, just need to count the souls on board.
gold has to drop below 500 and to stay under it at least 2 years to be a bear market.
Your words are the only words I'm seeing of a charlatan.
hopes do not belong in investing. Ever.
You calculate & you buy/sell.
Nothing else.
The time is right now. Those waiting 2 years will get nothing. You buy low, not high, and today is low. Lowest you'll see it from here on. Period.
G-R-U-N-T squatted and dropped this on the roadside:
More dishonest and disingenuous bullshit.
Speciously picking the top for any market (1980 for gold, in this case) as a baseline for making a supposed comparison to another market that was simultaneuously at or very near its nadir is always the sign of a weak and fallacious argument.
Moreover, which "Dow" would you have had us invest in? The one of today, with magical clarivoyance, or the one of 1980, which contained less than HALF of the stocks currently within "the" Dow? Because we all know that "the Dow" is continually redefined, with old and flagging stocks being dropped from it with newer up-and-comers being added to it, right? Leading to multi-decade comparisons of the value of "the Dow" being not just utterly meaningless but extremely misleading, right?
And by the way, troll, what do the price movements of gold in 1980, or 1990, or 2000, or ANY other year or period in the past have to do with the current situation, when we face a collapsing world monetary and financial system unlike anything analogous in those past years or periods? I might just as speciously bring up the period of 1929 to 1954, when holding the Dow, even in nominal terms, was a net LOSER for a full quarter of a century as proof of the futility of holding equities.
You, sir, are an asshat of the highest order.
Blah, blah, blah!!! Crazy making doesn't make a case for facts Mr. akak. Gold has, indeed, been a terrible investment for past decades, however, like I said, when gold dips below the 1k and possibly to 750 then buy, buy, buy!
Listen when a man speaks, child, and get yer fingers outta yer ears yelling "blah blah blah" like a toddler. I'll say it once, and that's it. It's not a fucking investment - it's money. You either own money or you don't. Read what Soul Glow wrote all the way up top. Those of us who will sit tight with even one coin of gold, knowing that it is real money, we are the eventual victors. If you want to ride {The, THE, the} Dow train to make some loot over a time period, go for it. That's not what PMs are for. What part of permanent store of value do you not understand?
Everyone is obsessed with making a killing without doing any work. Who said gold is an investment per se. It's a store of wealth last time I looked because it can't be any different. It's a periodic element in very short supply. It never deteriorates and can't be counterfeited in any conventional sense. I'm beginning to think this forum is overrun by greedy bastards who have dollar signs in their eyes. This concept of getting rich quick, imagine if that is the very heart of why Zero Hedge exists. We all bleat on about the JP Morgans and Goldmans and dishonest traders and algorithms, but isn't every cunt including most here, trying to get rich by doing sweet fuck all.
not true.
Gold has been an amazing investment for all history EXCEPT to get cash (not everyone wants to) for 1981-2001. That's it. That's a very small period to pretend is the entire history of gold - so you're an idiot.
Within a year gold will be 2500. Within 2 years gold will be 3500.
Within 3 year gold won't be available to the public at any price they can afford on a wage under $50/hour.
That's the facts.
Very good point AKAK; I'm glad someone else made it before I got to this thread.
I try to tell folks to ignore the pretty charts that every financial advisor you meet props up, showing some index (DOW, S&P, whatever) always increasing in value without disclosing that these indices are continually adjusted by removing underperfoming companies and replacing them with others to show constant growth over time.
Actually I think all other akak's arguments were better than this one. Nothing prevents an investor to adjust his investments according to the changes in the specific index and he could profit at about the same rate as the index grows. And I do not think there is anything dishonest in investing in stocks long term. You risk your own money and you are helping to create products for the market. What is wrong about that? But at the same time I think that gold is a real money and there is definitely a very good reason to have part of your wealth invested/saved/stored in it. And espetially at volatile times like right now. Not to mention, that gold very often performs very well exactly when stocks are in a depression. Their correlation is very low and they both together make a good mix for a balanced portfolio. I do not see any reason for a fight over which one is better. It depends on the situation. Right now I prefere gold much more.
LOTS of things prevent this:
due to the weighting algorithm, and how it changes, you'd have to precisely know how many shares of each new stock to get, just like the DIA etf is calculated, and how many to sell of what you had before. A wholesale dump & replace would not match the index pricing.
If you can do the math then you have to be able to get the right multiple of shares. You probably can't so you'll be rounding up in lots of 10, 100, etc., paying extra fees to sell and buy something else each time, and now you've got much worse break-evens to make up for just from the fees.
This move is a Fail.
Generally it would underperform the index and generally the index would underperform single holdings based on fundamentals & one of those is gold. Not for every period but for this period it is.
a lot of people are duped by 1980. It's the exception, not the rule.
As for investing in the Dow, since it's an ever-changing list of stocks & the DIA is fairly new - no one could have invested in the Dow then & got those returns today, as the company list kept changing the entire time to make the index look good (fraud, dishonest manipulation).
They'll think of something. They'll subpoena the hard drives and backups of every gold trading business computer system and find out who has it, how much and for how long. If not actually get us, they will come after us because we will have something very valuable and they will want it. Probably under the guise of national security you'll be getting visits from the DHS, not a sit down and have a cup of tea and biscuit type visit but a kick your door down where's your gold you terrorist type of visit.
We are in for a period of chaos that will be incomprehensible to us. After so many decades of peace as prosperity we will simply be too shell shocked to even react. It's happening slowly already in developing nations. War drums are starting their rat-a-tat-tat between China and Japan. Europe is slowly but surely descedning into chaos, very slow but also very surely. If any of these countries had anything to fall back on we could subdue our pessismism and assume things will work out for the best. There is nothing to fall back on though. The money is gone, environmental degradation is advanced, populations densities are extreme in the cities and the carrying capacity of the worlds resouces are maxeing out at current growth rates. Fukushima cores are in the ground and will pollute the Paciific ocean for centuries.
It's hard to see any other scenario but mass chaos for an extended period of time. I'd urge everyone to watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ (The most important video you will ever watch). This is regardless of the added inherent risk and instability built into the finacial system. Any world war now that flares up will spawn multiple new Fukushimas as each nation in battle will target the others nuclear reactors, this is inevitable. As crazy as I once thought preppers were I am now solidly in their camp: Bullion, Beans and Bullets.
Somewhat strangely I can see that in the decades or centuries to come if we're still here (highly debateable) Tim Berners-Lee may be reverred as the ultimate liberator of the human race. It's only through the internet that many of us have come to realise how truly corrupt and evil the financial system has become, how unlimited debt creation has made it possible to fund and fight endless wars, how governments grow and morph from democracies to police states and how a handful of elite families have accumulated enough wealth to uncover their true sociopathic nature.
two words - food supply.
nobody talks the issue!
always; conception, no sir, food supply
do the mice in cage experiment-moar food moar mice-simple shit maynard...
special thanks to the corporations that bring us moar food
dupont, monsanto gen mills cargill ect.
shity food, shity mice.
too many weak mice = death on mass scale soon...
coming to a planet near you, sooooon.
edit;what are you having for breakfast?
oatmeal/mussli or processed garbage food/cereal with 3xdaily modified corn syrup producing epidemic type two diabetes? or toaster waffles with fake aunt jamima syrup. lol, or stop by macdeath and get a sack of shit?
Mining is being shut down worldwide as input costs increase while the revenue drops due to the declining price. This will short up supply so dramatically that the price manipulators are creating a force majeure upon the real market.
It is likely that when it happens the buyer and seller do not understand that history will unfold beneath them. The seller will simply not meet delivery. It could be on a $75k order or a $75m order, but there will be a point in time that the contract will not be met.
This time is fast approaching.
I wanted to give you a greenie, Sg, but starting your post with a quote (or italics) prevented me, and anyone else, from doing so.
It helps to put in an empty line before quoting another poster to allow others to up (or down)-arrow your post --- and be sure to turn OFF the quote function (the " on the tool bar) when putting in that empty line first as well.
Stay away from PAPER and BITCOIN ! They are the same wolf in differnet sheeps clothing. Buy physical if you can find it. Red Flag!
Two words which should make everyone bullish on gold:
Janet Yellen
reaches for something shiny & yellow to keep the vampire away...
"25 People talk their book on Gold"
Oh wow, they all love it - how unexpected. No mention of the downside? Hell, even in Bitcoin-land we talk about the probability of rallies AND declines.
Oh well, I guess there's more than one person deluding themselves.
Lies Exposer, we all know you are a smart dude. Gold is important, it has 5000 + years of Store of Value in the eyes of most civilizations. Ignore gold at your peril. Buying some Au for some BTC is just, well, smart!
Buy for the long-term. Think ahead!
Like to think? Like the long version (comprehensive)? Go here...:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/
(start in late 2009 if you want to read it "in order", that's what I did)
don't feed the troll
no, you DENY declines are coming. Be it 800, 400 or 200, you deny, deny, deny.
And yet it is coming.
Uh, you missed the first part of FOFOA's prediction where the paper gold price first goes sub-$500, stops trading for a period of time until new pricing mechanisms are established, and all the gold miners go out of business or are nationalized. Kind of important points to understand.
Laurynas Vegys - sounds so, .. lithuanianishhhh
Number 1 reason: because I gots me some
War.
False flag anyday now, this one was close
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/asia/story/japan-scrambles-jet...
As long as the Archduke stays away from coffee shops....
Well, I suppose its only a matter of time until Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan need liberating.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
I'd add the "800 pound gorilla" to that list for good measure when the one Country they didn't put on this list doesn't get it's way.
Sure as hell seem to be busy helping our friend withthe strategic base realignments in Okinawa as of late?... Too bad we're not helping them with that other major problem that is only getting worse coming up on 3 years in March. When you start seeing more actions like this you know our time will be short and Au probably won't matter too much.
Just ask the whales in Baha how bad this thing is getting?
Supply and demand is so 20th century. Gold will be suppressed until near the end
https://pathofmusashi.wordpress.com/2014/01/08/how-to-get-square-and-ret...
melted barz r'us : Deutsche Bundesbank, featuring FRBNY
All loans can be hypothecated.
Just buy gold and silver during pre 911 times . Hoard your wealth, place into new fiat games and/forex gambling. You'll do well.
what is your problem? men love solving problems
We have provided a solution to your problem. Real members will help others. Can you help others understand the concept that you believe to be a problem? Itemize each concern for every ZH Poster. Thanks
Yep. But, hide them well. And next time you're out & about, pick up some lead and delivery devices too.
Brass and lead:The REAL PM's!
Yeah, the deilvery equipment is fun, too.
Now be careful though. 'cause, while I personaly haven't experienced it, I understand that "Rapid Onset Lead Poisoning" can be a real bitch.
Back to killin snakes' (sometimes with lead)
Is it true the gubmint is closing down the last LEAD smelter in the USA?
Making bullets out of other "non toxic" (lethal) metals? Such as steel. Increasing the costs to what you can't find as it is now?
you only need one reason ... US debt of $17T and growing ...
I like knowing the molecular structure and that it is rare.
When in a thousand years they dig us all up and investigate, they will marvel at how we spent our time bickering about the value of gold (and "Bitcoin" even!)...
confused, they will dig and dig to find evidence of attempts to fix the things that ailed us...
they will give up, of course, and then they will shake their heads in pity, or maybe even just give a hearty laugh.
The historical ratio for gold:silver has been 15:1. Now it's 60:1. It's all relative, amigo. What's the value of a bowl of soup? What's the value of a glass of water? Again, it's all relative (are you hungry? thirsty? Do you have access to these things at all? Or an abundance?)
Long silver. It's gonna be the ultimate Rocky Balboa.
Well, the problem I have with silver (and I like it, I own it, but I like gold more) is that I did NOT see any silver traded in Peru during its hyperinflation in the 1980s, nor did one of FOFOA's guys see it traded in HIS (E Europe) country either.
Only local currency (or $$$ in Peru), even loads of it. No silver. A little bit of gold.
But, some of the "Survival Guys" say silver is the way to go...
The difference between the 1980's and now is that then the US dollar was considered by many in 3rd world countries as akin to gold.
I'm not saying that it was in fact, just that many of the man-on-the-street-type considered it to be so.
That is not the case today. All fiat currencies are viewed with increasing suspicion and so silver may have a much more prominent role to play.
Mortals like us cannot really know anything.
The survival authors are with you on this, they like Ag.
But, I have not seen it used myself. Just my personal & limited experience. But, I did take a small stake in "junk silver", just to cover another base. Maybe I'll get some more, especially if my LCS lets me sift through the pails like he has let me so far. Found a 1918 Walking Liberty Half in one... That's for my daughter, it HAS been mailed.
***
(I like your site, keep up the good work)
I'm not disagreeing with you, only pointing out that there are some substantial differences between the Peruvian hyper-inflation of the 80's and the looming world-wide collapse of the current fiat money system of multiple nations, including the reserve currency.
Silver could become a much more important player than in the past because there is no currency that will hold the confidence of the masses during a global economic catastrophe.
***
Thanks for the kind words about my site.
And, because silver was our currency until 1965, re-introducing silver as currency is not a big leap.
BUT, gold as our currency, brings back a different memory - 1933, when they confiscated it.
I like both, but as they say, Gold is a Kings money, Silver is the common mans gold.
It's always important to have cash on hand, especially during hyperinflation (there won't be anyone to buy or sell PMs in general because the relative prices/valuations don't make any sense). My take on your and FOFOA guy's experience - it makes sense that if anything, gold is traded because it yields high temporary returns during hyperinflation (even if in exponentially worsening notes). Further, the examples you will likely find are people parting with their gold out of need or desperation. The propensity for folks to let go of their PMs is directly tied to the perceived 'value' and stability of the unit exchange proxy in paper fiat. Why should one let go of an ounce of gold for a trillion monopoly bucks? He's simply going to wait it out.
perfect.
Can you reply honestly - what value is there in silver. I just ... dont get it... its abundant, if not kept properly - oxidates, and not realy used anywhere besides some branches of electronics and whatever I dont know. What are your reasons?
disclaimer: I hold a fraction of silver paper claim
Actually, my understanding is that silver has more applications than any other commodity (ex. crude oil and maybe iron). LOTS used in tech applications and weapons.
Silver usage may get a big boost because it kills germs too (so a little bit of silver in hospital clothing...).
Yo Ulterior, check this out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver#Applications
Did you know that some Indian (and Middle Eastern) sweets have a very very very thin layer of silver on em? They take a little pice of silver, stick it in between two plates, and hammer the shit out of it until a very thin sheet is made.
You can eat it too!
Silver is a commodity like any other. Why buy copper? What makes copper special? Why buy oil? Is oil special? None of them are really special, but a good deal is a good deal. If I could buy paper oil at $20/barrel, I would be buying a bunch of it.
You don't really need gold unless you're super rich. It's good for rich people to have because a brick of gold stores a lot of value that can be hidden or smuggled if needed. Guys making 40k per year probably don't need to worry about socialists coming to jack their stuff (France).
for one, silver is required for almost all the things to live better than a cave man.
It's in electronics, it's in teeth, it's in catalysts used to make medicines & various other industrial chemicals, it's in mirrors & shiney metallic paints, it's a medicine by itself as an anti-biotic that no bacteria has ever evolved against (unlike our current antibiotics), and it's actually not plentiful at all.
Most certainly not abundant.
Iron & copper, aluminum, those are abundant. Silver & gold are not.
Also silver becomes silver sulfide which is a reversible process so while it can tarnish, you can reverse it.
@ skateboarder
I've heard this argument a lot - usually based on the amount of the respective metals that presumably exist in the ground.
My question (seriously) is: Are the relative amounts of a mineral a major , or a minor contributing factor in its price relative to other minerals?
I'd really like to hear what you (and others) have to say on this.
I would say that the relative abundance of a mineral (or any other resource) is only, at best, a very minor contributing factor to its price, which of course is fundamentally determined by supply and demand.
For example, osmium is FAR rarer than gold, and is mined at an annual production level of only 1/10,000th that of gold, yet it is not worth 10,000 times the price of gold because the demand for it is minimal; in fact, the per-ounce price of osmium is LESS than gold, less than half that of gold even.
Another even more extreme example might be platinum, which is roughly ten time rarer than gold. Platinum is today valued on a per-ounce basis even more than gold, and has generally had a higher price than gold for the last century at least. Yet in the 17th and 18th centuries in South America, where it was first found, it was considered nothing more than a nuisance and an annoying by-product of gold mining, and was gathered-up by the Spanish authorities and thrown into the ocean to prevent it being used to adulterate gold! No demand = no price (or a price of 0).
Gold and silver maintained a roughly constant ratio of value in the past matching their geological abundances because BOTH were equally valued as money. Today, gold is still effectively valued as money (or at least as a store of value) while silver is not similarly so valued, or at best so valued to a much lesser degree, so its price compared to gold has fallen, even despite its many industrial uses. This could very well change in the future, however.
akak, the figurs I saw re worldwide Os production is a mere 2000 oz per yr. It is used for hardly anything.
I have one of those ounces though. My personal collection! Yes, there are people who collect the "elements", I have three of the six "Platinum-Group" in mine.
http://elementsales.com/
EDIT:
You can get Rhodium in a 1 oz bar at kitco as well. The others from elementsales come in a glob.
DoChen, there is a very interesting pattern in the annual production of the precious metals which I have noticed and find quite curious, if coincidental.
Give or take 10-15%, the following are the amounts produced by the global mining industry annually of each of the given precious metals:
Silver: 25,000 tonnes
Gold: 2500 tonnes
Platinum: 250 tonnes (same for Palladium)
Rhodium: 25 tonnes
Iridium: 2.5 tonnes
Osmium: 0.25 tonnes
(Rhenium is the only one that breaks the pattern, at ~50 tonnes/year.)
I am not ascribing any meaning to these relative production numbers, I just find the pattern odd and interesting.
Rhenium is *not quite* a platinum-group metal. Almost. Check the Periodic Chart.
Rhenium looks like it will be (may be already be) used in the "next generation" of aircraft engine turbine blades (will allow them to run better at higher temperatures).
The next "application frontier" is for Ruthenium (that IS a platinum-group metal). Ru will be used in the next generation of aircraft engine turbine blades.
I forget the exact name of the company in the UK, but you can buy Rhenium from them, it is something like "minormetals.co.uk". You may have to dig around to find them, but it is an interesting little company. They specialize to some degree in Rhenium, which is indeed rare.
EDIT:
A couple of fun facts about Osmium. It is the rarest of the stable elements (non-radioactive) as well as the heaviest. It is also very hard: approx. 7 on the field geologists' Mohs Scale.
http://tinyurl.com/b27lez2
Sorry, DoChen, I meant to mention Ruthenium, not Rhenium --- I don't know how that one popped into my head instead.
sudden bout of amrhesia?
Deo, akak handled your question beautifully. I'm actually not too well versed on the historical or current trends of metals outside of Au, Ag, and Pt. As he said, gold's perceived value as money has stayed the same, but silver's had waned in comparison. Given a rush back into commonly held metals upon the loss of faith in paper fiats world around, we will definitely see silver take its rightful place soon enough.
The logarithmic comparision of production akak has presented is very interesting. Rarity is not the sole characteristic behind demand!
Yes, akak's answer was helpful. Thanks to you both for your thoughts!
Ah, so it will play out like a movie, then...
I'm fine with silver, Skateboarder, but you figured out how to miss my point and make my point, all at once.
Skateboarder Because of that 60:1 ratio being so out of line at this point in time, silver will be where you will make the most money when PM's break loose. Probably 5% more return than gold. Unless it is the all time shitnado of shitnados and gold could go hyperbolic to unimaginable heights.
I feel a bit better knowing that Soros is down with gold. I don't think he has that same "crazy" reputation as the others.
I like gold around my neck and fingers but silver in my pockets. All my friends want silver. I live in North America not India. Stacking is a practical art so let's be realistic... It's much easier to conduct business in silver than gold unless your John Pierpont Morgan... and if the mean does have to revert back to the norm for gold than multiply that by 3+ for silver at 62/1.
Sidebar. Has anyone ever looked closely at a Peace Dollar? Dang. Very Beautiful. Not as beautiful as a gold St. Gauden's but for the money? How could you not see it?
Dr. Gonzo, silver minds think alike. See my post above. We posted at the same time. :)
Thanks Skateboarder...The more pain, doubt and gut wrenching lows about silver-gold the better. if it comes too easy you know it's a flash in the pan bubble. I like to keep out of debt, own my house, live frugal but good enough, and put my savings into the stack. If I couldn't buy gold and silver with my money from work I wouldn't do it. I'm a saver. I need real money. Not some clownbuck signed by a dimestore joke politburo member owned by the sydicate.
Hey doc, that lady depicted on the Peace dollar is the designers wife.
depends.
If you were a trucker or farmer delivering large amounts of this or that perhaps gold would be easier. It's lighter for the same purchasing power & the purchases are large.
Gold will not rise as long as the ECB flirts with negative deposit rates = You cannot see real money win over fiat, as long as people have "fidus" in fiat...
Question is...what will break that fidus?
Bitcoin - EMP non-compatible
Gold - INERT - it just sits around and around and around.....
The entire Bitcoin network survives as long as one copy of the blockchain survives on any computer around the world.
It's actually not a fragile thing at all.
Nope.
The entire grid must survive for the use of bitcoin to survive because people must USE CURRENCY with or without a grid.
With no grid people must use something else for money & have no reason to use or return to bitcoin.
PLUS, with billions of copies of the blockchain that are ALL DIFFERENT than your desired copy, your copy won't have a chance. The attack will be 100% planned and a replacement blockchain will be used to destroy YOUR blockchain. WILL be used. AS PLANNED.
It's incredibly fragile.
A proper cryptocurrency shouldn't have a blockchain & and absolutely NEVER have a transaction record.
None is needed.
Issuance of each currency unit on-grid using DIGITAL SIGNATURES is enough - is very quick, has zero mining time - and is never able to be hacked or replaced by other copies. What's needed is THIS true sturday standard, not the ultra-fragile exponentially growing bitcoin blockchain of open-Derp origin.
The downtrend in gold during 2012 and 2013 can be explained by a shift in financial interest from momentum based futures into leverged risk derivatives. A confirmation of this occurred with a retest of the June bottom.
And is really no different than 2006 and 2008. The same will happen again with bonds, real estate's bubble & gold pushing up with even higher QE money looking for a home.
PM ETF selling doesn't concern me. They just caught a group of suckers with it.
Monster...box...
The above graph would only be interesting if it was normlized by population.
Me thinks that in the USA less than 1% keep GOLD in the house as INSURANCE, but in ASIA me knows that over 90% keep GOLD as insurance.
The above graph shows the USA is middle, yet we know the USA is a net seller, and we also know that that USA holdings are the BIG-LIE.
Sorry, but graph really is worthless, in this case I would rather have the real numbers, of how much GOLD was bought in each country, and what actual number of buyers/sellers are, relative to total population.
Also in ASIA all gold is sold in CASH deals, with no record, so who the fucking hell could even guess how much GOLD was bought/sold?
90% of Asians own gold "Bollocks" they do.
What are "gold bollocks"?
Is that anything like a "bullock"?
Bolluck is UK-english, for feces or Paper-Gold, aka ETF/ETN gold funds.
No Asia on earth has ever been seen buying paper gold in world history, its safe to say that only white hairlips have ever been seen buying 'bullocks' or paper-gold in white history.
[ Feces is a nice term for SHIT, or paper-gold, or toilet-paper, Feces is what comes out of your asshole after you eat, BULLOCK is what you wipe your ass with ]
OK, well, I guess that clears up that! Thanks!
Not having ever heard the word used in speech, and only very rarely in print, I guess I always confused "bollucks" ("shit" in UK-speak) with "bullocks", an archaic term for bulls.
BITCOIN & GOLD
In the entire HISTORY of the world MEN have loved
GOLD - GLORY - & GIRLS
IN that order, you had the gold, you got the glory, then the girls come easy.
Now today in the USA its ...
Bitcoin - Youtube Selfy's - Female Pitbulls
Yep, please tell me more about USA exceptionalism.
Four years of the largest globally coordinated money supply inflation ever in history and what does the price of the world's best inflation protection do? Go down, not just by a little bit, but the most in two decades. This trade doesn't seem to be working so well. Actually, it is failing miserably.
Governments around the world are hunting capital, stealing as much as they can via taxes, fees, etc etc etc. It causes DEFLATION not inflation. The printed money never gets into the market.
Yeah, JohnConnor (poor choice of handle for you), official suppression and manipulation of a market will tend to do that.
GOLD is disaster protection, not inflation protection.
For the best inflation protection short-term just load up on fuel, food & tools, bought well in advance so you can use them later or barter them.
Medicine too.
Gold will only turn up when everyone has given up on it. Not yet.
Gold is not a news story. It is a history lesson.
So the GOLD ETF/ETN pimps are whining that nobody will buy paper gold anymore,... is this really news?
They had a good ten years of FRAUD, and now the public has figured out that no where on earth, can paper replace the real thing.
DUH
This is not a story about GOLD, this is a story about the PAPER-GOLD industry imploding, this is a CASEY OBITUARY.
***
This glut has yet to work its way through the global economic system. As it does, it will create a bubble in gold and a super-bubble in gold stocks."
Then with a slight of HAND, CASEY tells you that any day now paper-gold stocks will come roaring back,
Again, not going to happen, people want real GOLD, all paper gold in any form is a racket and a fraud.
Goldman Sachs reminds me of CNBC in this article .... Always do the opposite they tell you to do.... Sneaky bastards...
$700 from recent peak right?
and tapering has begun.... looks like the price is baked in and $1200 range will be around for a while but continue to stare at the price everyday
also... you clowns made the news!!! from bloomberg:
"Have a read of the comment stream of ZeroHedge.com for some true gems of the genre. They reveal an investment gone awry combined with a lack of idea as to what to do about it."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-07/10-reasons-the-gold-bugs-lost-t...
Bloomberg just can't resist attacking the small percentage of Westerners who take sides with billions of Asians. The tide has gone out. It will come in again.
When the "official price" of gold can be lowered merely by selling paper "contracts" for future delivery, then no gold has to be delivered, dollars can be delivered instead, the "offical price" is meaningless.
What if oil futures worked that way? Delivery of dollars rather than oil? The "official price" of oil could be manipulated much lower.
When the actual commodity doesn't have to be delivered, then it's not the "official price" of the commodity.
True gold bugs shouldn't even be looking at the "spot price", because it's meaningless.
I don't care about the "spot price", it's a joke. I care what an ounce of physical gold actually costs me.
And if MSM keeps bad-mouthing gold, that's great, makes people sell and brings the price down.
I don't care if they're idiots, can't see past end of their nose, can't see USD being printed like crazy, losing value, losing confidence around the world, other nations talking openly about abandoning it.
Currency collpase is a sudden thing. It happens without any warning.
Why do none of them mention silver? Silver will clearly outpace gold once the Comex goes tits up. And with silver being a rapidly used up precious metal by way of industrial usage (NEVER TO COME BACK AGAIN), and with skyrocketing energy input costs to mine and refine what little silver there is in the ground, why do these people never mention silver or the dramatic fundamentals behind it?
Is it because they don't want to cause a sheeple stampede just yet into silver so that they (and we stackers) can continue to stack silver cheaply for as long as possible???
I mean it would only take someone with 250 Million bucks to corner and wipeout the silver market. Sprott could have done it long ago and so could many others. Yet why don't they? Government threats? What gives?
Just sayin'....ya gotta wonder.
And...Edit: This made me think of some other fundos I've read about regarding silver which took me back to an article on SilverDoctors from back at the end of June when silver hit the big low around 18.50/oz:
Silver At Less Than 19 Dollars An Ounce? Are You Kidding Me???http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-at-less-than-19-dollars-an-ounce-are-you-kidding-me/
And this article from SilverBulletSilverShield or "Dont Tread On Me":
11 Things You Need To Know About Silver Right Nowhttp://dont-tread-on.me/?p=30028
Or this:
Forget JP Morgan, PEAK SILVER IS HERE!Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/2012/09/forget-jp-morgan-peak-silver-is-here/#fXCIcpuS6dHwJV88.99
http://www.maxkeiser.com/2012/09/forget-jp-morgan-peak-silver-is-here/
Or how about the USGS silver survey that stated silver would become the first extinct element on the periodic table by 2020??? Even if they're wrong and off by some number of years, there is still no doubt that silver supplies are rapidly declining both in ground and above ground as it continues to be destroyed industrially. This is the big thing to remember when compared to gold, which is "babied" and is never destroyed like silver is. Even if you like gold better and think it's "prettier", yada, yada, yada, you have to account for the fundamental supply and demand of any certain commodity as a long term investment or hedge against fiat collapse, right???
Silver is now valued compared to gold at 62:1 That's fucking insane, don't you think??? Especially when the in ground ratio is something like 9:1, right????
If silver were revalued from today's very low and manipulated dollar value of say 20/oz adjusted for inflation from the 1980 nominal all time high of 50/oz it would equate to around 135 per ounce in today's shit dollars. But I seriously doubt you could still maintain a 60:1 silver to gold ratio at that level. That would put gold at 8100/oz, and although I believe it should be around there or maybe higher, I'm sure instead the ratio would be lowered to around 20:1 or maybe 15:1.
But the in-ground ratio is something like 9:1. Gold at even 4000/oz with a 9:1 ratio prices silver at 450/oz! And many could argue as silver becomes more and more scarce then that silver/gold ratio could become 1:1 or even flip and it will one day require more gold to acquire silver...maybe .5:1 or .25:1
We just have to hold on and continue to wait this thing out...it's going to get very crazy from here on out. Keep stacking that phyzz and don't let anyone or anything ever shake you out of it. 500 ounces of silver may end up buying you hundreds of acres of sweet land with a nice house all for what very little fiat garbage you traded in one day long ago for that very rare, shiny metal. Ya just never know...
GET READY TO BE RICH, FOLKS! WHEN GOLD HITS $40K WILL YOU BE WILLING TO SELL AT THAT POINT??