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Despite Late-Day Melt-Up, Stock Stumble-On As Treasury Curve Crushed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Credit markets had been nervous for the last 48 hours heading into today's Fed minutes and reflective of the FOMC's worries over small-cap forward multiple and covenant-lite loan issuance (both of which we have discussed in great detail as excessive) sparked weakness in the Russell and credit spreads. Yesterday's bounce gave way to selling after the minutes (and on a "good" data day). But a late-day no-JPY-supported melt-up saved the day but stocks are still down after first 5 days of the year - still worst since 2008. Treasury yields leaked higher into the minutes then flattened dramatically with 10s and 30s rallying and 5s and below weakening. 5s30s dropped 7bps on the day - biggest flattening since Taper. 10y did not close above 3%. Gold and silver slipped lower after 2pm then recovered into the close, but WTI crude slid all day - holding losses after the Fed ($92.50). The USD limped lower after the Fed with EURUSD unch on the week before tomorrow's ECB statement.

 

Market went a little nuts post-Fed...as always...catching down to EURJPY then ripping higher to VWAP into the close...

 

But overall, all indices remain red from the 2013 closing highs (even as the NASDAQ overtook the Dow)...

 

as 330RAMP CAPITAL saved the day perfectly...

 

Credt markets have been nervous again...

 

Treasuries limped higher in yield into the minutes then flattened dramatically after...

 

Oil slipped all day - holding post fed losses; but gold and silver recovered most of their kneejerk losses..

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: JCPummeled...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: BBBY smashed 9% lower after hours as it misses and guides lower...

  • *BED BATH & BEYOND 3Q EPS $1.12, EST. $1.15
  • *BED BATH & BEYOND 3Q SALES $2.87B, EST. $2.89B
  • *BED BATH SEES YR EPS $4.79-$4.86, SAW $4.88-$5.01, EST. $5.01
  • Bed Bath Sees 4Q EPS $1.60-$1.67, Saw $1.70-$1.77, Est. $1.79

 

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: Brent-WTI surged to one-month highs today as WTI slumped...

 

 

 

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Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:12 | 4312861 flacon
flacon's picture

What was with that last 30 minute ramp-job on SPY? Sickening. 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:23 | 4312903 Pareto
Pareto's picture

The TRIN was belching "buy" all.....day.....long.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 18:49 | 4313232 negative rates
negative rates's picture

But I was only trying to spread the love, turned out the love was cancer.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 20:38 | 4313583 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

wrong spot

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:29 | 4312930 fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart!!!!11@@#@$@1one

 

 

We've gone Plaid Sir!

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:55 | 4313066 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Why worry when you have triple-bonus charts?

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:22 | 4312869 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Someone is lying...

stay tuned suckers.  I was actually hoping someone might comment on the WTI-Brent spread, there's a trade in there somewhere.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:15 | 4312871 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Crazy...it was 3:30 on the dot that the ramp up back to the moon began. 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:23 | 4312899 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Really tired of reading all the posts from folks expecting the dollar to be crushed anyday now, China to dump Treasury's, foreigners to forgo the petro dollar.  Although dollar total % of trade in dollars is down, the total $'s in trade ares @ record high.  As of October TIC data (as far as it's believable) China is @ record holdings in excess of $1.3 T, Japan within $4 B of record holdings.  Foreigners hold $5.6 T of Treasury debt...within $50 B of the record. 

This is a world of collusion and no consequences for bad governance...and everything is graded on a curve.  Folks gotta get over this dollar collapse meme...it ain't anywhere close to happening.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:25 | 4312918 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not yet anyway, but I am a bit concerned that my customers in South America might not be able to afford my produce in the near future.

Please, explain to us how that will be good for business.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:56 | 4312943 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

People simply need to understand rates must go down to enable the system to continue...so they will.  Not good for the economy, not good for savers, but allows ever higher record debts (absent sufficient growth)  to be serviced. 

"Foreigners" look like they will be continuing to pick up the Treasury issuance even faster than the Fed and it's diminishing QE and US diminishing trade deficit.  Nonsensical, non-logical, but reality all the same.  Not sure exactly the mechanism(s) to entice these "buyers" or if they simply look at the Treasury as the relative safer bet?  Not sure how, not sure why, but is what it is until something in action shows it isn't (matters not what PBC officials or likewise say...all about what they're doing).

Here's the link...peruse just for fun...amazing to see Belgium @ #7 w/ $180 B, Ireland @ #12 w/ $110 B..and Germany w/ only $60 B...and the history of these series is amazing as Germany hasn't changed it's holdings for years while Ireland, Belgium, Norway have increased by 10 and 20 fold since '08...China/ Japan doubled since '08...Brazil #4 has massive increases...and ol Russia #10 w/ huge increases to $150 B...wonder where they got all that extra cash to buy those Treasuries???  Even while they talk bout how bad the US is...

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

As of Jan '08 Foreigners held $2.4 T...as of Oct '13 they hold $5.65 T (scroll down in link below to see yoy changes...)

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfhhis01.txt

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 18:59 | 4313259 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Will continue right up until the supply lines break...

same as it ever was...

hedge accordingly

 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 18:52 | 4313239 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Well there's no buSINess like show buSINess like show time is no time for changin your mind!

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:56 | 4313068 max2205
max2205's picture

Fucking banks and fucking pomo.   Burn mf s

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:25 | 4312916 Pinefox
Pinefox's picture

What was leaked?  Data out tomorrow.  Someone got a heads-up today. 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:28 | 4312931 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

I doubt that anything was leaked. It seemed to be the not-so-unusual 3:30 support/ramp up to the market by.......well the powers that be, I suppose.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:36 | 4312966 Eurodollar
Eurodollar's picture

Stopped caring for a year + and just got in on the party instead. Man! Thanks to the FED, ECB and BOJ especially for making 2013 a very good one. Getting out of Dodge now though.. Awaiting the lies to hit the fan and see the shitstorm outperform all the recent snowstorms. 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 17:50 | 4313026 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

The BONUS CHART!!!! Gods deliver

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 18:38 | 4313204 starman
starman's picture

Central Banks and relatives. Buy the future! Lol

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