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Holiday Shopper Traffic Tumbles 14.6% As Online Sales Miss Expectations
"It's the weather's fault."
Prepare to hear this excuse a lot more in the coming days as one after another expectation of the "any minute now" economic rebound is missed.
In today's instance we find that holiday retail sales, on which the punditry placed so much hope to finally show a recovering consumer, rose 2.7%, however offset by a plunge in store foot traffic, which tumbled by a whopping 14.6% according to ShopperTrak and wildly missing expectations of a 1.4% decline, a far cry from 2012's 2.5% increase.
A big part of the drop was due to the shorter shopping period as retailers only had 25 days to encourage shoppers to spend compared to 31 days earlier, although an even bigger contributor was the pulling of holiday sales into November with early promotions starting at the earlest time in history. "Consumers took a break from shopping after Thanksgiving weekend, so retailers were pressured to offer deep discounts and promotions in the final week before Christmas to finish the holiday on a positive note," said ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin. Naturally the weather was also blamed with a "cold snap" invoked to explain why shoppers stayed away from stores.
Still, since the drop in traffic did not result in an overall collapse in spending, this is hardly the full explanation. So ShopperTrak provided the following goalseeked justification: "It's a result of more and more technology in the hands of the consumer, which allows them to virtually window-shop." Reuters adds that many shoppers went online to make purchases, particularly during a spell of abnormally cold weather in many parts of the United States during the first two weekends of December.
One would expect then that online sales would have more than made up for the shortfall? One would be wrong: while online retail spending rose 10% to $46.5 billion in the November-December 2013 holiday season, according to comScore, this too missed expectations of 14% growth that the data firm had forecast.
But while the true state of the US consumer - already having drawn down on their savings and refusing to splurge on credit card purchases - remains unclear, what is clear is that in their scramble to lure shoppers, retailers cut prices so violently that margins in the fourth quarter will likely be a sight to behold once earnings are reported. Indeed, earlier today we got a feel for what the expect when troulbed chain J.C. Penney Co said that it was "pleased with its performance" during the holiday period. It refused to provide any justification or numbers to go along with its cryptic press release and as a result the company's shares are currently down 7%.
As for online retailers, if Amazon's persistent inability to generate profits is any indication which continues to be rewarded by the market, they have nothing to worry about especially if bottom line losses will be "made up with volume."
Finally looking forward into Q1, one can expect more of the same: "ShopperTrak estimated on Wednesday that U.S. retail sales would rise 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2014, while shopper traffic would fall 9 percent."
Finally, for those who are into that sort of thing, here is ShopperTrak's infographic on the holiday sales season:
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Because Obamacares
Everyone.......................is SKINT!
Fuck that!
The weather wasn't bad 'til after the holidays.
It's the e-c-o-n-o-m-y
Exactly how is the missed expectations of morons not a "dog bites man" story? Retail totals were up, and online was up with foot traffic down. Some idiot's prediction/projection really shouldn't make such a breathless tale. Knowing that they goal-seek the narrative (animal spirits!), that's not a surprise. We are drowning in bullshit, yes we are, so let's not bury the lede. I would say the fact that retail was up at all would be the story. Maybe Nansferotu Pelosi is right - welfare is turning around the economy!
The think the actual story is that online is further eroding walk-in retail, so a very bad story for all of those few remaining small businesses that sell shit from a storefront, and for employees of big box stores. But overall shows that people are still spending money, probably by borrowing again which is they whole mission of the Fed so I guess it shows that the Fed continues to succeed in its mission of causing people to spend money they don't have based upon the wealth effect of propping up real estate and stock prices with money that future taxpayers will need to pay.
You know ... I'm not all that smart, really, and I'm not too terribly well educated in matters such as this, and I have no investments in commercial real estate, and I've not been in a shopping mall in a decade or maybe longer, but ...
Even so, a collapse in walk-in retail does not surprise me in the slightest. In fact, I've been expecting this since at least some time in the 1980's. I am surprised that it has taken almost two decades for some halfway interesting metric to appear.
Also, wtf is up with REIT's, developers' stocks, and other paper commercial real estate financial products? How in the fuck have they held value? Especially for the past five years or so?
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!
I think the disconnect between the total $ amount nominal retail sales being higher, despite foot traffic being way lower, essentially is another data point showing that inflation is much higher than the headline number. I think there was a disaster in real retail sales, masked by printing.
An of course AMZN jumps on the news
NO, THE VORTEX DID IT!!!
Come on guys...this is bushs fault
What? I thought there were sooo many presents ordered that UPS and FedEx couldn't get the shipments to the doors ontime.??
My dog ate my shopping money.
@ oldE_Ant
Give it a couple of days..................and your dog will shit it out.........back to you.
But..but...but...MSM said it was a record setting year. CNBC would never lie or embellish.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/CNBC%20WEB%20PAGE.jpg
Still hilarious.
But they're beginning to taper.
<"Full stop. Reverse engines. Full speed backwards and damn the fiat." - Yellen>
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/7/obamas-rhetoric-on-fighti...
Goddam you George Bush! Goddam you to hell!
neither is worth the effort as to whom is the worst. ever.
try blaming congress
How dare they report something negative. Expect ShopperTrak to be audited in 3......2.......1
So this is bullish right???? ;-)
More ZH garbage.
After reading twice, I believe that what it says is that total sales rose modestly, but window shopper hours fell. Only on ZH do rubberneckers matter more than dollars in the till.
Loozers, bitchez.
I don't believe you actually read the article.
Actually, I think he did, as I had the somewhat same take except a whole lot less snarky above. Maybe he had a bad night and needed to ventilate his anus.
/Fight!
"After reading twice, I believe that what it says is that total sales rose modestly, but window shopper hours fell."
It's interesting that you had to read this twice when what you're talking about was stated in the second sentence.
"In today's instance we find that holiday retail sales, on which the punditry placed so much hope to finally show a recovering consumer, rose 2.7%"
Has the press embargo on the economic concerns about the "Polar Vortex" been lifted yet?
fuel/energy use down 9% YoY, according to EIA (if you work thru the numbers. not like they would actually say this). the US is now exporting 2.1 Million barrels/day of gasoline/distillates. this is why trade balance crumbled yesterday as exports rose.
If you don't go shopping the terists win!
I had to shovel a lot of snow to get to my mouse, and my screen was frosted over.
My fingers slipped on the keyboard, and I sprained my thumb.
Worse, my credit card had icicles hanging off it.
And your account was frozen!
It's been dry as a bone here in the West...one of the driest winters on record...maybe a little too dry for shopping.
Remember everything is bullish.....
Close down those store which cater to the 90% and leave those serving the 10%.
More Tiffany, Porsche, $100,000 plus stores and less dollar stores.
The story of the 90% getting poorer and the 10% getting richer.
By the way the dollar Tree stores were packed this year. People were getting cheaper cards, wrapping paper and bags there.
The 90% are getting more and more squeezed.
Mogas isn't cheap enough to support aimless foot traffic, but I still see soulless housewives making the daily trek, looking for that "thing" that will complete their lives.
We predict things will be improving greatly right after things get done deteriorating greatly, whichwe predict will be any year now.
Continue buying stawks, all is well in Eastasia.
Brick and mortar inventory was suspect in my mind.
these are the baked numbers too, it is allot worse
The government still thinks it's perception while not fixing the underlying problem.
Asset prices are squeezing the 90%. The Fed needs to allow price discovery rather than inflating. Add in Obamacare and it really gets tough.
In the meantine deficits are going wild. This should end well (sarc).
the vortex sucked the money out of my wallet
"More ZH garbage. After reading twice, I believe that what it says is that total sales rose modestly, but window shopper hours fell. Only on ZH do rubberneckers matter more than dollars"
I think the point is that it shows a greater divide in wealth distribution. Sales went up even though the number of people shopping dropped dramatically. Basically, the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. Same as it ever was.
I did my part because I didn't shop for crap this season!
speechless
Sir Banzai, great work.
Metro-sexual extortionist w a very large bag of anal eaze.
There are plethora of jobs available for part time and1099rs, neither provide careers, upside, benefits, or insurance.
December 7th scored 9th place? Interesting. Business was pretty good for me that weekend. But how would they know? I did half of my sales in cash. So did lots of other vendors.
Good, I am going to buy a new photography monitor and want Dell todrop the price more.
Significant drop at the Crude household Christmas purchases down 46%. After Christmas purchase down 80%. We just couldn't get in the mood to shop. Another round of Med School and Nursing School tuitions at +12.9% and =6.9% YOY was also a big drag.....but dey is not flation.....LOL
As far as the energy complex from the EIA Weekly Status Report.
For the week ended 1/3/2014
http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr.html
"U.S. crude imports averaged 8.0 million barrels per day last week up 466,000 barrels per day over the previous week."
I grow really tired of those people that try to pass off re-exporting as exporting. As you can easily see we import 8 million barrels a day of oil plus gasoline. Whatever we net out against imports we still net import over 8 million barrels equivalent every day.......While the uber optimists think we may see production in 2014 at close to 9 million barrels due to shale I think not unless prices gap much higher. The Canadians are growing tired of selling us at a loss and that still means we import 8 million barrels a day or so. Yes thats down because consumption is down around 4 million barrels a day since the 2008 crash. Some by conservation, alot by ethanol and bio diesel but mainly because the economy sucks.
Whats the correlation with the ADP number and the BLSBS number seems like it is opposite about 1/2 the time. Just another excuse to bash the metalsl
Well when there are no stores you can't shop!
K Mart to close 225 stores Sears 125 JC P ? In 2014.
Fortunately for me I work in a business where it is a felony to ship my product into my state, thus peeps have no choice but to come out to my store to get my product. Anti-competitive? Yes, but job security as well.
I probably bought 80%-90% of my Christmas gifts from Amazon this year. More convenient, no crowds, better selection, better prices, no sales tax, free shipping, and 5% cashback from Discover (paid off every month, so no financing costs)....can't see why brick & mortar store traffic would be down so much.
Low wages = low sales.
On and on and on....until it stops.
If Barry would sent us some MOAR FEWD STAMPZ, then we could buy MOAR JUNK that we don't need and keep this fucking joke economy running
Get off your fucking lazy ass Barry and send us MOAR FEWD STAMPZ
If a lie will help the banker-supported corporations get more business, then they will lie, searching around for any excuse (fewer days in the season, "cold" December weather, out-of-sight online shopping, some data not yet available). Always the reports are used to maintain a positive shopping psyche outcome or to revive an asphyxiated consumer, never just to reveal straight marketing data for retail investors or for an informed public.
The corporate media gets its tips on lying from the government data reporters. The ADP jobs report this morning caused the reporter I heard to summarize that a good report shows the economy finally getting a handle on employment. This comes as the Congress decides to confirm an official unemployed underclass with extensions in their tax-supported benefits to last, apparently... forever.
I don't believe any numbers from anyone anymore! I believe my eyes. Malls were desolate when I shopped with what little money I had, after doing well all my life I'm resigned to being broke. This economy is on life support
This is my instinctive take as well.
I went to a large mall nearby to pick up three light duty flannel shirts and a pair of Levi's at the Sears store shortly before xmas (a semi-annual rite of new clothes for Trumpy). I was almost the only person in there....same as the year before last BTW.
What I want to know is, what is the net profit margin. If sales are modestly up...fine, but exackitickly how much profit does this add up to?
Wait for the 2014 Christmas shopping numbers after the ACA Vortex sucks every last drop of cash away. It'll make 2013 look like the last Hurrah of the old economy.
LBJ ... war on poverty..
BHO... war on prosperity..
women and children hardest hit- as usual.
Does Miss Expectations have nice tits ?
My take is that this website spins everything to the negative and this retail report was ok. Not great, not a disaster. But I see last months xmas spending binge as a bit of a party before the ship sinks. My increased health insurance costs kick in today. We now have 3 buck gas year round, where we used to get a break in the winter. And this cold winter is going to bring unexpectedly high heating bills coming soon to a mailbox near you. Add to the mix that Obama does everything he can to stall an economic recovery and I see 2014 as a year that will make us long for the good ole days of 2013.