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Market's Kneejerk ADP Response: More Taper
Equity markets appear wholly dissatisfied with this morning's 'good' news and are unsure whether this taper-on data is confidence-inspiring or liquidty-sapping. The ADP print appears to confirm a hgher probability of another $10 billion taper. Bond yields jumped higher, the USD jumped higher, gold dropped, and stocks are limping to the day's lows...
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Bond yields jumped higher, the USD jumped higher, gold dropped, and stocks are limping to the day's lows...
Never seen this MO in the early AM.....<cough>
Yup... It gets Old Yellen off the hook for the next taper of $20 billion!
They’re going to taper all the way to $0 pcm and then… after that… they’re going to start putting rates up. It's just a matter of when not if.
Oh and the Fed will hold its $4 trillion until retirement. And Western markets will continue going sideways +/- 25% for another 10 years as bonds enter a secular bear market.
But unless you have a bazillion dollars to invest you shouldn’t care.
If you have $100 buy a suit
If you have $1,000 buy a car
If you have $10,000 get qualified.
If you have $100,000 start a business.
If you have $1,000,000 buy a local business.
If you have $10,000,000 buy a state business.
If you have $100,000,000 buy a national business.
If you have $1,000,000,000 buy a multinational business.
If you have $10,000,000,000 hide.
In other news....the Taper "Worm" went batshit crazy in NK.
What was it 3 weeks ago when we had over 600,000 first time claims unadjusted? Yeah this report isn't more bullshit.
Do I sense a tad bit of skepticism in your tone?
Umm, no edit button today. Here is a link showing 600,000 new claims 3 weeks ago:
"+607,000 people added in one week to all UE programs, with most of it coming from "regular" state programs?"
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3315674
taper is a strange word...
All our unemployment problems are behind us:
The US claims that the unemployment rate is 7% while John Williams of Shadowstats (SGS) using previous government methodologies claims it is 23%:(see chart)
The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
44 applicants for every position at an ice cream factory in Maryland - or nearly three times more difficult than getting into Harvard to get a simple job. We need a few more ice cream factories and everyone will be employed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-07/tuesday-trivia-how-many-america....
Is that a 40hr or 29.5hr job?
If it's over 30 hours....I might be interested myself.
Equities are heading up-up-up now. Different day, same shit.
"More taper", have we actually had any tapering yet? I think not.
If the economy ever gets better and all that printed money comes into circulation, I dread to think what inflation will be like.
6 months of this bullshit before "the market" begins to realize that the taper isn't really happening at all.
There are short term market mechanics at work that would allow temporary taper--Like the Fed owns a lot of debt already, and that debt is basicly interest free to the Treasury. It has been effectively monetized and forgiven because the Fed pays that interest back to the Treasury. But there is no long term way to stop the government from borrowing more and more just to fund operations. really, they should not have tapered at all. When they add it back with more on top, and they will be forced to, it is going to look really really bad. Taper is either a futile confidence gesture, or they are trying to buy time for something short term.
In my gut, I suspect Taper is a PR lie to cover some new monetization program being ramped that we are not hearing about. Kinda like when they were handing out trillions at a pop in 2009 to any bank on the planet that requested it. That sort of thing they do in secret which never appears on their balance sheets is the real problem. I know what they have to do. And if what they say or appear to be doing is the exact opposite, then I know situation is worse than I feared. You know that when it gets really bad, you have to lie.
By all means dump those silver contracts. Oh dear, we have taken out yesterday's lows. Rough seas again this morning.
Fat man got his feet in a puddle of cold water.
Someone should find how the FED is shoveling that fictitious 10 bil vapor taper out the back door to the JP Morgue and the Goldman Sach. They'll probably find a connection in the EU.
It's going to be so funny when these fucking cunts wake up to the nightmare they invited upon themselves.
"But, but, but...... I've got Twitter stock. I'll trade it to you for that sandwich!!"
Interesting that someone decided a few months ago that ADP should be important again and some media talking heads spewed it our - now its release routinely causes bond yields to spike 5 or more basis points. Ridiculous.
Gold will hit 1200 and bounce right back again. As usual.
I was listening to a few guys talking about the Chinese and the mining contracts they have with a lot of major producers. the thinking goes that they have a minimum price whereby beneath that, the miners don't have to sell (being as they are at, or more likely below, cost). That number is around 1200. We've seen it loads of times in the last months that it hits that level and bounces right back up. The chinese bid it back up just beyond that minimum so they can continue to stack physical and the miners can't horde supply and wait for better prices.
Higher prices will come I think. Maybe in the next few months as the physical supply gets beyond tight and China tires of the game.
Gold monthly has found support near 1175
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-monthly-loses-4-stalled-1175-...
Seeing gold move back to near 1920 (all time high in USD) would require the USD to hit all time lows - some may say that will happen too - and that would require the Euro/GBP/JPY/CDN to hit all time highs - the are all currently in a down trend.
Should see gold below $1000 by mid 2014
"Should see gold below $1000 by mid 2014" - optimist, but I will be standing by with dry powder to take delivery should it go below $1,000.
Who really wins a "Race To The Bottom" anyway?
Is being the cleanest dirty shirt really a good thing? The other shirts get cleaned earlier than our shirt....
Define what it means to "get cleaned" first...
then I might be able to answer your question.
Sometimes "purification" isn't such a good thing.
reset