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What To Expect From Today's FOMC Minutes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The minutes of the December FOMC meeting will be released at 2 PM ET on Wednesday, January 8. As BofAML notes, the minutes give a platform to those outside the voting majority on the FOMC to express their disagreements with the current policy stance. Typically, that has meant that the minutes sound more hawkish than the FOMC statement or speeches by the voters. Also remember that much of the discussion in the minutes is based on old news: the US economy has shown mostly stronger data since the December 18th FOMC decision to taper by $10 bn as of January 1.

Via BofAML,

On the economy, look for a modestly more optimistic outlook in the minutes, with balanced risks on growth and employment and at most slightly more concern about too-low inflation. We expect active discussion over the extent of cyclical vs structural factors in the labor market — the more time spent on structural concerns, the more hawkish the minutes will sound. A minority of Fed officials may emphasize the risks from persistently low inflation, but we expect the majority to cling to the belief that inflation should soon start to move up toward the Fed’s long-run 2% target.

On policy, the discussion around the pace of tapering is likely to be relatively vague with lots of “data dependence” caveats, but most of the FOMC should indicate support of a $10 bn per meeting reduction in the purchase pace — provided their forecasts are realized. Some significant minority is likely to call for scaling back QE3 at a quicker pace. This may appear in the discussion of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Also on policy, look for broad support for strengthening Fed communications and forward guidance in particular, but still a lack of agreement on specific approaches. We expect the FOMC to inch toward more qualitative than quantitative guidance. An IOER cut is likely to remain on the table (but not imminent), and additional discussion of the reverse repo facility is likely. These more dovish elements could well be overshadowed by the taper discussion.

 

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Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:33 | 4311271 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

What to expect?

Nothing good, thats for sure

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:37 | 4311284 BennyBoy
BennyBoy's picture

Expect only good!

Do you not watch StateTV or read StateNEWS.com articles?

It's all good news all the time!

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:39 | 4311298 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

If you're wondering how chairwoman Yellen's policies will influence on the economy, today's article at the Accredited Times gives a refreshingly optimistic perspective;

http://accredited-times.com/2014/01/08/the-age-of-yellen-a-new-landmark-for-womens-rights/

Expect to see an uncompromising dedication to price stability and low interest rates. Janet Yellen is bringing a woman's touch to monetary policy with her calm desiveness and prudent dedication to stable markets. Equity investors no longer need to worry about liquidity events or "tail risks". This is the time to invest and take part in the global recovery, and I strongly urge those of you on the sidelines to take part now while equities are still undervalued. 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:43 | 4311312 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

What they really need is a way to projectile diarrhea into the internet and all over you.

That would be an app.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 12:30 | 4311721 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Will there be icecream.  I reall hope they serve icecream.  I really like icecream.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 13:35 | 4312013 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Don't fear the tapir.

Panic as they insert the tapir.

ping-pong meme.

Yellen has control.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:45 | 4311320 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Would you like fries with that?

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:49 | 4311330 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"uncompromising dedication to price stability"  -- LMFAO!!

Welcome back MDB, just one question;  What are you "pricing" things in?  Bitcoins? dollars? Yen? Yuan? AUD? CHF? Silver?... etc.?

Yes, the "recovery" is finally here, but I see all kinds of transactions occuring that eliminate the useless paper-pushing middlemen and avoid the dollar...

can of beans for your thought(s)...

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:59 | 4311371 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That can of beans is worth at least a pack of smokes in the FEMA camps.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:54 | 4311353 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm glad to see you are still around. I thought maybe you had gone the way of a few of our other trolls like Robotrader. All of our good trolls are gone, and it's just not the same.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:55 | 4311356 wmbz
wmbz's picture

"Janet Yellen is bringing a woman's touch"

Yikes!  That would be a touch I want nothing to do with!

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 11:03 | 4311380 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

Agree, think I'd rather let Bernanke fiddle with me....

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 13:39 | 4312029 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Coven: Hill, Yell, Sebilius, Wookie.

They have control, and a witches brew.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 11:02 | 4311381 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Everyone in America is touched by the economic downturn. Your mission is to quell the fear and put a chicken in every pot. That would be a WHOLE chicken too, they're only a couple bucks.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 11:03 | 4311383 superflex
superflex's picture

Look who crawled out from under their bridge.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 11:12 | 4311422 Muppetrage
Muppetrage's picture

With the price action in the metals the last three days, maybe something not so rosy in the minutes.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 12:20 | 4311664 samsara
samsara's picture

" It's "  a well known (to us) Troll

Don't Feed it.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 11:53 | 4311561 666
666's picture

I expect another pack of lies and will have to make an emergency appointment with my psychiatrist should this not happen.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 12:44 | 4311792 Freddie
Freddie's picture

It is a shame we are not like North Korea. We could feed the Fed Board Members including Yellen and The Ben Bernank to packs of wild dogs.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:34 | 4311273 youngman
youngman's picture

What did they have for lunch...I bet it was nice...

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:54 | 4311351 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Sheep.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:36 | 4311279 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

High fives all around as the Fed governors celebrate people continuing to accept their bullshit paper promises in exchange for the very real fruits of their labor.  (If I could print infinite "money", I could own everything too...)

Same as it ever was...

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:36 | 4311280 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I expect to hear moar laughter amongst themselves as the boast about how they can't believe they are getting away with this.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:37 | 4311283 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Pure twaddle, we guaranty it.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:44 | 4311313 youngman
youngman's picture

Is there where they gave the Bernanke a cake and a GOLD watch..or is that to old a relic for him...did they sing..for hes a jolly good fellow..for hes a jolly good fellow????

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 13:42 | 4312039 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Fiat Sandwich, preferably a footlong hoagie.

Franklins.

He needs to eat his words.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:44 | 4311315 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Summary of meeting (I win Hilsenrath!) - "Things are better, but not great. We are gonna print, but not maybe as much in the future. If we need to, we will print a lot more in the future, but we don't think so at this point. "

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:45 | 4311317 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

what to expect from FOMC??

 

discount coupons for KY for all the shorts out there

 

fuck the fundamentals and earnings - Walmart could lose have its business - the fucking pig is going higher

 

print MOAR MAWNEY Yellen you fucking wretched cunt

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:47 | 4311322 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Wake me when they decide to burn all the overvalued bad paper on their balance sheet < Japan, you might as well go first ! > 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:50 | 4311331 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture
What To Expect From Today's FOMC Minutes

More lies? More misdirection?  Anything but the truth?

 

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:53 | 4311349 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

No truth to be found in a confidence game.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:52 | 4311344 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Shhhhh....the spirits are about to speak....at 2 PM." - Bullwinkle

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 12:18 | 4311657 samsara
samsara's picture

Janet Yellen  "I Gotta get a New Hat !!"

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:54 | 4311352 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

MAybe they'll show Obama's holliday flicks?

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 10:56 | 4311358 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There aren't any...Reggie is camera shy.

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 11:53 | 4311559 Gaffing_Nome
Gaffing_Nome's picture

Outta all the...

Perfunctory invectives are useless against the power of em, dudes Swanson Song.

????Expect...dedication

(Guitar Solo)

!Yellen!

(godawful guitar solo)

A woman's touch

with her calm (32 minute drum solo)-> !desiveness!

no longer need to worry?

TAIL!!!!

(Gross)

This is the time

Take part

Take part!

Now!

(Exploding genitalia)

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 12:00 | 4311585 highwaytoserfdom
Wed, 01/08/2014 - 12:17 | 4311651 samsara
samsara's picture

Great Thumbnail Tyler(s)

A baby Tapir

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 13:44 | 4312047 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

When/where/who/how do they insert the tapir ?

Is it anything like squids ?

Wed, 01/08/2014 - 12:34 | 4311738 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Welcome back MDB...love to watch your effect on those unfamiliar

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