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"Volatile" Jobless Claims Drop To Lowest Since November But 104k Drop Off Emergency Rolls

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Department of Labor states that there is no indication that the winter storm affected this week's numbers (though they are likely to remain volatile through January) as jobless claims dropped from a ubiquitously revised-upwards 345k to 330k this week - the lowest level since the end of November (even as NSA data jumped from 451k to 486k on the week). Continuing claims rose modestly back into the middle of the range of the last 4 months just like initial claims. The emergency claims data is lagged so we will not see the impact of congressional decisions on that until 2 weeks from now but its worth noting that the data we alreayd have shows 104,000 dropping off the rolls. California, Pennsylvania, and Michigan topped the initial claimants list with California worse than this time last year.

Initial claims stuck in a 4 month range...

 

but emergency benefits continue to see people fall off the rolls - down 104k for the week of 12/20/13...

 

Of course this time of year means massive seasonal adjustments so this data is mostly noise and little signal...

 

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Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:44 | 4314925 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Not Seasonally Adjusted rises above 486,000. Thus seasonal adjustments remove 150,000 or skew seasonal adjustment downward by over 40%. 4 week moving average of NSA rises to 440,000. The BLS will have to make massive revisions if this continues.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:52 | 4314949 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

We just work too hard and don't give others a chance. If we all go part-time, 20 hours per week, we create 2x jobs. What's the problem? Throw in mandatory retirement at age 45. Go Greek....problem solved.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:56 | 4314964 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

It all means MOAR TAPER!

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 12:11 | 4315485 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

Oh, are they hiring more "educators"?

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 10:57 | 4315163 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

But... but... they have to seasonally adjust the numbers! Just look at all that seasonal weather out there - so many people couldn't go to work this week that 150k jobs were temporarily saved because the employed couldn't show up to be pink-slipped. That never happens in the spring, summer, or fall.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:45 | 4314927 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

actually... if you receive unemployment benefits... it's like a salary... so in a way... you're government employee because you need to spend that money... and that's work....

They should exclude also all those people who receive a benefit from those numbers... it's only fair...

AND IT WOULD SHOW MORE OF OBAMA'S GLOWING ACCOMPLISHMENTS!!

ALL HEIL TO THE LEADER!! ALL HEIL TO THE BARRACK MONARCHY!!

I BET THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER IS -5%!!! NOT PLUS!!

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:48 | 4314932 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

#WINNING!

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:50 | 4314938 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

I can only imagine how Steve LIESman is spinning this right now -lol

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 10:52 | 4315063 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

From inside the rodential forebrain of the typical Marxist propagandist:

 

"....must cover for the cool negro.....

Must.

Must somehow direct blame to heterosexual, white, Christian males.

It is the hip, progressive and sophisticated thing to do."

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:52 | 4314950 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Gallup's payroll-to-population employment rate plunges from 43.7 to 42.9 last month, the lowest level in this metric since March 2011.

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=462636&cust=mam&year=201...

Highlights
The December U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P) declined to 42.9 percent from 43.7 percent in November. It is the lowest Gallup has measured since March 2011. Gallup's P2P metric estimates the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older that is employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. P2P is not seasonally adjusted. From December 2012, the P2P rate is down from 44.4 percent in December 2012 and 43.8 percent in December 2011, but is higher than the 42.4 percent of December 2010.

Unlike Gallup's P2P rate, which is a percentage of the total U.S. population, traditional employment metrics, such as the unemployment rates Gallup and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, are a percentage of the workforce. Gallup defines the "workforce" as adults who are working or actively looking for work and available for employment. The U.S. workforce participation rate in December was 65.8 percent, down from November's 66.9 percent and from 66.8 percent in December 2012.

Without seasonal adjustment, Gallup's December unemployment rate was 7.4 percent. Gallup's seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for December, using an estimate of the government's likely adjustment factor, is 7.6 percent, down from 8.6 percent in November. Gallup calculates this rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year, which in December 2012 was an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The exact adjustment the government uses for December 2013 will not be known until Friday's BLS release. The government's unemployment estimates are relatively stable from month to month; Gallup's measure of unemployment tends to exhibit more monthly fluctuation.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:57 | 4314957 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Saw that report. Only 43% of work age workforce working 30hrs or more.... Yikes. That means the rest are part time or out of the system completely. Considering their 7.4% unemployment rate it leans heavily towards not in the system.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 10:14 | 4315015 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

And 17% of those people work for the federal, state, or local government. 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141785/gov-

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 11:50 | 4315054 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

I love these Communist propaganda figures from the media-unchallenged Regime, in which numbers are "at their worst" since all the way back to say, March of 2011, or some very recent date such as that (2009, and the end of the horribly evil Bush regime is a particular popular point of comparison in weaving their fiscal mythologies). 

What horseshit.  Try worst EVER.

We are clearly in historically unprecedented territory when it comes to any number of economic metrics.

The covering mulch of QE of course, heavily masks the deleterious effects of all of this, but like an 85 year old popping Viagra: This is unsustaninable. 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:57 | 4314967 sklávos2013
sklávos2013's picture

So let me get this straight, five years - after the recession was over - and we are still laying off 300K per week. Who are you fooling Mr. Obama?

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 09:59 | 4314970 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

How many times do you have to get manipulated, fake economic numbers before you know that they are not worth a bucket of warm spit?

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 10:03 | 4314983 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Time to get off yo ass and on yo feet!

Out of the shade and into the heat!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happens-when-jobless-benefits-are-...

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 10:08 | 4315002 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

I see a rebound, based on pent up demand, as so many held off buying since 08, until like my self our washer and dryer went up, sears got a sale. got a car 15 yrs young that may need to be replaced. then it will be another 10 -15yrs before I buy again...part time jobs do not make a robust economy - banks kept out of BK do not improve economic activity they just extend and extend a slow decline, with the most connected doing very well.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 10:28 | 4315042 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Our refrigerator died on us the week before Christmas. Had to go another $1,000 in debt to buy a new one.

Sorry we contributed to retail spending and GDP.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 10:31 | 4315053 vegas
vegas's picture

"Volatile?" How about corrupt. Why on earth does aybody still believe anything the Bureau of Lies & Statistics puts out? You know it's corrupt and a political sideshow, yet you continue to "analyze" the numbers as if they mean anything. Send Chalky 50K in "donations" and get everything released to you early; who needs your useless analysis?

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 11:49 | 4315362 starman
starman's picture

2014 wil be the mother of all mass lay offs! 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 11:50 | 4315366 sbenard
sbenard's picture

The "government is god" crowd is soon going to learn that the devil does not support his children!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!