TWTR Enters Bear Market

Tyler Durden's picture

It would seems Reuben Kressel nailed it. The retail investor perfectly top-ticked his 500-share sell order on 12/27 and since Twitter shares have tumbled 25% - with plenty of volatility in between. As the world waits breathlessly for the firm's first earnings call later this month, it seems 'taking profits' is the new norm as firm after firm shifts their buy-buy-buy reccomendations to 'hold' or 'sell'.



Have no fear as Evercore's Ken Sean ($70 Target), CRT's Neil Doshi ($65), and RBC's Mark Mahaney ($60) are still there for the bulls to rely on...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
HUGE_Gamma's picture

Buying opportunity of a lifetime at these prices..

kaiserhoff's picture

Why should Twitter need profits?

Amazon never has, and who doesn't like twats?

nope-1004's picture

I truly fail to see "value" in TWTR.  I admit I don't understand the business model in light of millions of fake accounts.


john39's picture

fakery is the backbone of the global economy.

Say What Again's picture

As we say in the buisness - "Fake it till you make it"

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Dear TWTR puts, come on home to papa!!!

kaiserhoff's picture

Good point, but I'll bet dollars to donuts, the inactive accounts dwarf the fake ones. 

Twitter is like TV Adds.  The people who have time for that are no one's favored demographic.

malikai's picture

It would be a shame to spend buku bucks building a twitter datamine only to find out the only humans you're mining are complete idiots who are already broke.

aVileRat's picture

The company is basically MSN Messenger. Which means the network is only as good as the contact lists and monetizing the preferences of each social sub-net (aka. keyword tracking through 2-degree friend networks). This sounds really snazzy right ? lots of buzzwords ? It's not really that impressive. For advertisers it basically means the barrier to entry both for reaching potential customers & old subscribers to a brand is now 140 char, aka: zero. Therefore, the return on a TWTR marketing buzz in theory is IRR infinite because one really great tweet + link to a vivo ad can blow the doors off a full pit of Madison Ave. MBA's nursing hangovers. Case study ? Beyonce's new album.

1 minor problem: the system is prone to exploits. Tons of exploits both for social engineering fake trends and as a vector for hacking a personal ID reset.

The closest proxy in history to TWTR would be the 19th century ticker tape machine. Only now everyone in the world has a newsfeed/preference engine vs. just Daddy Warbucks on 15th & Broad.

This being said, the stock is stupidly overvalued. At 50 bux it basically implies the corp is going to add about 50 million people per year to their service. After 3 years you start to run out of people in the world. But these are just details....


Dr. Engali's picture

" and who doesn't like twats?"



Answer:  Obummer.

Say What Again's picture

The claim behind AMZN is that they re-invest every free dollar they have into building a bigger infrastructure -- IT, Operations, etc.

This has worked for a very long time, but I still can't help but hear the voice of that old math guy telling us how you can't have exponential growth forever.

What will AMZN do when they have expanded to the point of singularity?

kaiserhoff's picture

Bezos will speak unto The Lloyd,

about colonizing a new universe..., or at least securitising the paper for some such shit.

css1971's picture

Yup. Masssssiiiiiivvveee overcapacity.

I have a ton of popcorn to watch that one when it implodes.

NoDebt's picture

If you had told me a month ago I could buy at this price, I wouldn't have believed you. 

AccreditedEYE's picture

LOL. You a funny guy. Social media model broken. You seen people leaving FB? Twitter is a fad, like social media, like tech stocks 1999. There's no "premium" anything. It's just a glorified newspaper and, actually, it isn't even good at that. These fads enrich creators + investment bankers + HF's "in-the-know" and that's about it.

thunderchief's picture

This reminds me of the dot com bubble. All the way down there were buy and hold ratings. Just as the market shills are still pumping this Zombie market full of Hot air, don't expect a sell recommendation until you've lost it all.

JustObserving's picture

TWTR Enters Bear Market

The horror! the horror!  Where is Yellen with her free money?

FB also down 2.6%

This will not be allowed to stand in the land of the free markets.

Emergency Ward's picture

"President Obama announces a new "Promise Zone" financial bailout package for TWTR."

firstdivision's picture

but...but...but revenue growth...

Grande Tetons's picture

So, basically TWTR did what it took spot gold over a year to do in less than two weeks. 

This helps me feel a little better. That, and I can still swim with my gold tomorrow. 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"That, and I can still swim with my gold tomorrow."

The idea is to sink your Gold in the lake for later retrieval, not sink yourself with the Gold because you're weighted down from swimming with it.

NoDebt's picture

I think he means "doggie-paddle around in the water above his sunken gold."  But I like your version, too.

Grande Tetons's picture

Correct. However, I like the version/vision that Cog paints much better. 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Swimming in the Gold

This is the way to swim with/in your Gold. :)

Grande Tetons's picture

After release he should hop a steamer to China and become a chef. 

Manipuflation's picture

LOL john.  Meanwhile in Russia, I have just found out that there are a dozen or so cats that spray all over my MILF-in-law's office entrance in Russia.  MILF lamented the fact that old women feed these cats and then they breed and then piss all over the place.  Apparently, my brother-in-law has been dispatched with a shotgun to remedy the situation.  No mercy.  Shoot cats first, ask questions later.

To me, cats are like twitter:  Worthless.  

PT's picture

One tiny little stray kitten appears and all the mice and cockroaches in the whole bakery disappear.  The pest exterminator couldn't do that.

I like cats.

(And dogs ...) 

Emergency Ward's picture

Pobre de los gatitos.

No me mires, no fui yo.

Dr. Engali's picture's a felony to eat a cat. Probably shouldn't tell all the people eating at the local Chinese restaurants.

AccreditedEYE's picture

But I was told fundamentals didn't matter. All you have to do is bet against prevailing sentiment; everybody hated twitter. Good enough reason to get long. No?

Dr. Engali's picture

I need it to fall a lot further in order to collect my sandwich from Fonz.

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

What comes after pump.

PT's picture



Hang on, I need to take a, I mean, go to the toilet. 

williambanzai7's picture

Twitter's value is as a strategic add-on sale to a buyer with a revenue generating business. Twitter itself will never generate stand alone revenues sufficient to justify its market cap.

Another fine Squid Swindling operation...  

madbraz's picture

On a different note, Bank of America stock has traded at exactly the same level, zero volatility, for the last 2 hours.


Wake me up when this sh*t manipulated market capitulates.

Pig Circus's picture

The minute you wrote that Bank Mutt took off.

Emergency Ward's picture

Did they raise or lower the dividend?

wisehiney's picture

what a tweet bear

bdub2's picture

I will thank you to stop assailing three of the most astounding inventions of all mankind: TWTR, FB and fire. A close fourth was our Fatherland=The Federal Res. Amen.  


Papasmurf's picture

Folks are moving on to snatchchat.

vulcanraven's picture

Never knew it was in a bull market....

The worst trader's picture

Now that ZH has publisized it , to the moon! $100 by feb!

Blano's picture

I actually liked Robo.  Took a lot of crap and rarely/never retaliated in kind.

Rising Sun's picture

maybe twitter will enter the "time for a fucking profit" market too