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TWTR Enters Bear Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It would seems Reuben Kressel nailed it. The retail investor perfectly top-ticked his 500-share sell order on 12/27 and since Twitter shares have tumbled 25% - with plenty of volatility in between. As the world waits breathlessly for the firm's first earnings call later this month, it seems 'taking profits' is the new norm as firm after firm shifts their buy-buy-buy reccomendations to 'hold' or 'sell'.

 

 

Have no fear as Evercore's Ken Sean ($70 Target), CRT's Neil Doshi ($65), and RBC's Mark Mahaney ($60) are still there for the bulls to rely on...

 

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Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:09 | 4316244 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

Buying opportunity of a lifetime at these prices..

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:16 | 4316267 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Why should Twitter need profits?

Amazon never has, and who doesn't like twats?

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:19 | 4316280 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I truly fail to see "value" in TWTR.  I admit I don't understand the business model in light of millions of fake accounts.

 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:21 | 4316282 john39
john39's picture

fakery is the backbone of the global economy.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:25 | 4316297 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

As we say in the buisness - "Fake it till you make it"

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 17:06 | 4316890 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Dear TWTR puts, come on home to papa!!!

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:35 | 4316364 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Good point, but I'll bet dollars to donuts, the inactive accounts dwarf the fake ones. 

Twitter is like TV Adds.  The people who have time for that are no one's favored demographic.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 19:09 | 4317316 malikai
malikai's picture

It would be a shame to spend buku bucks building a twitter datamine only to find out the only humans you're mining are complete idiots who are already broke.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 18:40 | 4317237 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

The company is basically MSN Messenger. Which means the network is only as good as the contact lists and monetizing the preferences of each social sub-net (aka. keyword tracking through 2-degree friend networks). This sounds really snazzy right ? lots of buzzwords ? It's not really that impressive. For advertisers it basically means the barrier to entry both for reaching potential customers & old subscribers to a brand is now 140 char, aka: zero. Therefore, the return on a TWTR marketing buzz in theory is IRR infinite because one really great tweet + link to a vivo ad can blow the doors off a full pit of Madison Ave. MBA's nursing hangovers. Case study ? Beyonce's new album.

1 minor problem: the system is prone to exploits. Tons of exploits both for social engineering fake trends and as a vector for hacking a personal ID reset.

The closest proxy in history to TWTR would be the 19th century ticker tape machine. Only now everyone in the world has a newsfeed/preference engine vs. just Daddy Warbucks on 15th & Broad.

This being said, the stock is stupidly overvalued. At 50 bux it basically implies the corp is going to add about 50 million people per year to their service. After 3 years you start to run out of people in the world. But these are just details....

 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 19:07 | 4317314 max2205
max2205's picture

Ask Iccan

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:31 | 4316326 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

" and who doesn't like twats?"

 

 

Answer:  Obummer.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:36 | 4316373 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

and Bahney Fwank.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:31 | 4316331 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

The claim behind AMZN is that they re-invest every free dollar they have into building a bigger infrastructure -- IT, Operations, etc.

This has worked for a very long time, but I still can't help but hear the voice of that old math guy telling us how you can't have exponential growth forever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

What will AMZN do when they have expanded to the point of singularity?

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:38 | 4316381 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Bezos will speak unto The Lloyd,

about colonizing a new universe..., or at least securitising the paper for some such shit.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 17:32 | 4316982 css1971
css1971's picture

Yup. Masssssiiiiiivvveee overcapacity.

I have a ton of popcorn to watch that one when it implodes.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:16 | 4316270 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If you had told me a month ago I could buy at this price, I wouldn't have believed you. 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:26 | 4316304 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

LOL. You a funny guy. Social media model broken. You seen people leaving FB? Twitter is a fad, like social media, like tech stocks 1999. There's no "premium" anything. It's just a glorified newspaper and, actually, it isn't even good at that. These fads enrich creators + investment bankers + HF's "in-the-know" and that's about it.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:27 | 4316307 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

This reminds me of the dot com bubble. All the way down there were buy and hold ratings. Just as the market shills are still pumping this Zombie market full of Hot air, don't expect a sell recommendation until you've lost it all.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:13 | 4316252 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

TWTR Enters Bear Market

The horror! the horror!  Where is Yellen with her free money?

FB also down 2.6%

This will not be allowed to stand in the land of the free markets.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 17:40 | 4317012 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

"President Obama announces a new "Promise Zone" financial bailout package for TWTR."

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:13 | 4316255 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

but...but...but revenue growth...

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:14 | 4316258 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

mark it zero

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:16 | 4316260 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

So, basically TWTR did what it took spot gold over a year to do in less than two weeks. 

This helps me feel a little better. That, and I can still swim with my gold tomorrow. 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:19 | 4316275 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"That, and I can still swim with my gold tomorrow."

The idea is to sink your Gold in the lake for later retrieval, not sink yourself with the Gold because you're weighted down from swimming with it.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:22 | 4316286 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I think he means "doggie-paddle around in the water above his sunken gold."  But I like your version, too.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:30 | 4316321 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Correct. However, I like the version/vision that Cog paints much better. 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:55 | 4316488 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Swimming in the Gold

This is the way to swim with/in your Gold. :)

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:22 | 4316290 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

After release he should hop a steamer to China and become a chef. 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:23 | 4316291 john39
john39's picture

one man's pet is another man's main course:

http://catrecipes.com/recipes/braisedcat.html

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:44 | 4316417 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

LOL john.  Meanwhile in Russia, I have just found out that there are a dozen or so cats that spray all over my MILF-in-law's office entrance in Russia.  MILF lamented the fact that old women feed these cats and then they breed and then piss all over the place.  Apparently, my brother-in-law has been dispatched with a shotgun to remedy the situation.  No mercy.  Shoot cats first, ask questions later.

To me, cats are like twitter:  Worthless.  

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 16:04 | 4316541 PT
PT's picture

One tiny little stray kitten appears and all the mice and cockroaches in the whole bakery disappear.  The pest exterminator couldn't do that.

I like cats.

(And dogs ...) 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 17:54 | 4317026 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Pobre de los gatitos.

No me mires, no fui yo.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:29 | 4316312 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol...it's a felony to eat a cat. Probably shouldn't tell all the people eating at the local Chinese restaurants.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:22 | 4316287 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

But I was told fundamentals didn't matter. All you have to do is bet against prevailing sentiment; everybody hated twitter. Good enough reason to get long. No?

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:24 | 4316294 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I need it to fall a lot further in order to collect my sandwich from Fonz.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:25 | 4316299 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

What comes after pump.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 16:06 | 4316551 PT
PT's picture

qump?
rump?
sump?

pumq?
pumr?
pums?

Hang on, I need to take a, I mean, go to the toilet. 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:26 | 4316303 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Twitter's value is as a strategic add-on sale to a buyer with a revenue generating business. Twitter itself will never generate stand alone revenues sufficient to justify its market cap.

Another fine Squid Swindling operation...  

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:26 | 4316306 madbraz
madbraz's picture

On a different note, Bank of America stock has traded at exactly the same level, zero volatility, for the last 2 hours.

 

Wake me up when this sh*t manipulated market capitulates.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 16:13 | 4316586 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

The minute you wrote that Bank Mutt took off.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 17:48 | 4317051 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Did they raise or lower the dividend?

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:27 | 4316311 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

what a tweet bear

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:58 | 4316351 bdub2
bdub2's picture

I will thank you to stop assailing three of the most astounding inventions of all mankind: TWTR, FB and fire. A close fourth was our Fatherland=The Federal Res. Amen.  

/s

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:46 | 4316431 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Folks are moving on to snatchchat.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:48 | 4316441 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

Never knew it was in a bull market....

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:50 | 4316455 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Now that ZH has publisized it , to the moon! $100 by feb!

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:56 | 4316496 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Robot!  Where ya been?

 

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 16:46 | 4316775 Blano
Blano's picture

I actually liked Robo.  Took a lot of crap and rarely/never retaliated in kind.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 15:54 | 4316485 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

maybe twitter will enter the "time for a fucking profit" market too

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 16:23 | 4316629 Spungo
Spungo's picture

We need to stop these strong deflationary trends. Increase QE to 40 trillion per day.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 16:44 | 4316760 Blano
Blano's picture

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of.....now what exactly does TWTR produce again??

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 17:24 | 4316948 css1971
css1971's picture

Twitter produces twits.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 17:50 | 4317056 Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

as a software engineer I cant understand someone buying a stock of a messaging center website, you cant fcking be kidding me??

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 23:49 | 4318205 PT
PT's picture

It seems that all you need is a trendy name and a heap of publicity.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 01:01 | 4318377 Zero-risk bias
Zero-risk bias's picture

... and a proprtionate number of active, inactive, and randomly generated accounts. 'The network-effect'.

Thu, 01/09/2014 - 20:58 | 4317681 Dr. Destructo
Dr. Destructo's picture

At least my Tweeter stocks are holding firm.

Suckers.

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