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Baltic Dry Index Collapses 35% - Worst Start To Year In 30 Years

Tyler Durden's picture





 

When this indicator of global trade rises, everything is rosy and reams of asset-gatherers and talking-heads wil quote it as indicative of how great the world is. When it drops - silence. There's always an excuse - over- or under-capacity, too many ships, too few ships, etc. However, the last 2 weeks have seen a 35% collapse in the cost to ship bulk. There is a relative seasonal pattern over the holiday period - with shipping costs rising into the holiday and falling after but... this is the biggest drop from a Christmas Eve since at least 1984, 30 years! Seems like the inventory stacking of Q4 had absolutely no follow-through whatsoever...

 

All thepost-Thanksgiving exuberance has been eviscerated from the Baltic Dry Index...

 

and some context - this is the worst post-holiday start to the year since at least 1984!!

 

Cramer?

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:13 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I prefer the HARPEX...but it shows basically the same trend. The economy is dead man walking and noone wants to admit it.

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years10&&dat...

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:22 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Screw the economy.....don't you know global warming might kill us?

 

Who cares everyone is losing their healthcare.....it's not like they have a job to pay for it anyway.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

What's clear from the above chart is that 2013 was just a case of pulling forward demand.  In other words:  Buying time simply makes the problem worse ... much worse.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:37 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Not just great chart porn.  Commodities, employment, and now this.

We are in for a bumpy ride.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

dont wanna give y'all the blues, but i'm 'long john baldry'

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Don't lay no boogie-woogie on the king of rock-n-roll. Bullilsh!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Now someone just might point out that stuffing the channels contributes to this..... naw. That would be too obvious with the MSM. Continue the propaganda!!!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Martel
Martel's picture

If you like your economy, you can keep your economy.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:15 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

"That's all, Folks!"

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

But but but... Promise Zones!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Are those places where you smoke some chronic and wait for Obama's promises to come true?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:45 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You look like a white male, no promise for you!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Oh there's a promise to the white males, all right-- a promise that Obama will fuck you over.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

"Will", Buckaroo? It's a done-deal. The crackers just ain't got hip yet.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:16 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

No decoupling of fundamentals and stock prices to see here.  Move along.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:17 | Link to Comment jtz5
jtz5's picture

Anyone know how to get the BDI on Yahoo or other stock sites?  I wanted to compare it to the S&P.  Thanks.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:18 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Maybe if the CB's print real paper money, instead of digital fiat, then they could ship all the new paper around the globe and fix the BDI!!! 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:34 | Link to Comment linniepar
linniepar's picture

Helicopter Ben and BDI Yellen. Fav comment of the day. +1

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:18 | Link to Comment ZeroBoBo
ZeroBoBo's picture

"No worries, I got this"
-Janet

CTRL-P

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Meanwhile, the Bernank is somewhere in South America sipping a margarita.  But he isn't the Bernank anymore.  He is Giuseppe Carbajal, wealthy industrialist.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

I buy American made whenever possible. Whoops! Do you like my handy work in that chart?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Truther
Truther's picture

Down Down and awayyyyyy..... Yellen man is here.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

Bullish. Buy While it's still cheap, BitcheZ!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

 

 

Arrrggghhhh mee buckoos.......down she goes........thay be shitwrecked..............that ther' waters be cursed i 'eard.

 BDI downgraded from buoy to shell.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:39 | Link to Comment BigRedRider
BigRedRider's picture

Party like it was 1984!  Boo-ya!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

The only inventory I stacked in Q4 was Ag, Au, and some serious rounds of PbCu projectiles, bitchez!  And I'll keep on stackin' it until this whole fuckin' thing blows sky high Fukushima style. 

and before I forget:  FUK-U-SHIMA, LARRY YELLEN!!!  Same to you Bernanke!!!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Skippity do da... Skippity ay.....my oh my, what the chart porn says!!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:49 | Link to Comment runforthehills
runforthehills's picture

:) exactly.. putting it in perspective: at the same last year the baltic dry was trading at 750 and it was trading over 2,100 just a week ago.. so not such a big surprise to see it fall a little bit.. 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:09 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Percent change charts make good propaganda. but if you lose forty percent of a nickle, who cares? you always have to have the underlying number.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:03 | Link to Comment neptune-klm
neptune-klm's picture

It's all because of the "polar vortex" everythings frozen-ha!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:10 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture

We're done! I mean the US not me!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Villageidiot777
Villageidiot777's picture

Must be the weather, because the baltic sea is not frozen so it is cheaper for boats.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

No one saw this coming.....

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:41 | Link to Comment FecundaGoat
FecundaGoat's picture

Couldn't this just mean we are buying less useless crap from china because ObamaCare is soaking up more/all discretionary spending??

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I'm sure this all just anecdotal data and is completely meaningless. I feel quite sure that those in charge will be the first to tell us when when to run screaming into the woods (likely just in time for them to come take what meager belongings we might still have as payment on our collective debts).

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:11 | Link to Comment gcjblack
gcjblack's picture

BDI has been, and is, highly correlated to Bunker C and/or diesel fuel, which in turn, is correlated to crude oil prices.  Add to this the world economy and shipping traffic, and the ship stock (old & inefficient, or new & efficient).

See http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI:$WTIC&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27226548623

 

http://i.imgur.com/H2SJ1KK.png

We appear to have the simultaneous dropping price in crude, plus the BDI's reversion to long term average value.  If there is a ship inventory or world trade effect, these are likely dwarfed by these two known and immediate factors.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:05 | Link to Comment BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

You can't artificially inflate the numbers for the shipment of real goods like you can artificially inflate the stock market.  Real goods are constrained by reality and real inputs.   The stock market has no such constraints when real money does not reflect real goods and services.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 15:14 | Link to Comment PTR
PTR's picture

Put the moves into a bigger context:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

For the BDI, big up and down movments aren't necessarily uncommon.

 

But sharp, oh, mos def.

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