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Baltic Dry Index Collapses 35% - Worst Start To Year In 30 Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When this indicator of global trade rises, everything is rosy and reams of asset-gatherers and talking-heads wil quote it as indicative of how great the world is. When it drops - silence. There's always an excuse - over- or under-capacity, too many ships, too few ships, etc. However, the last 2 weeks have seen a 35% collapse in the cost to ship bulk. There is a relative seasonal pattern over the holiday period - with shipping costs rising into the holiday and falling after but... this is the biggest drop from a Christmas Eve since at least 1984, 30 years! Seems like the inventory stacking of Q4 had absolutely no follow-through whatsoever...

 

All thepost-Thanksgiving exuberance has been eviscerated from the Baltic Dry Index...

 

and some context - this is the worst post-holiday start to the year since at least 1984!!

 

Cramer?

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:13 | 4319154 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I prefer the HARPEX...but it shows basically the same trend. The economy is dead man walking and noone wants to admit it.

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years10&&dat...

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:22 | 4319177 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Screw the economy.....don't you know global warming might kill us?

 

Who cares everyone is losing their healthcare.....it's not like they have a job to pay for it anyway.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:22 | 4319189 Popo
Popo's picture

What's clear from the above chart is that 2013 was just a case of pulling forward demand.  In other words:  Buying time simply makes the problem worse ... much worse.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:37 | 4319232 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Not just great chart porn.  Commodities, employment, and now this.

We are in for a bumpy ride.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 20:06 | 4321346 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

dont wanna give y'all the blues, but i'm 'long john baldry'

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 15:53 | 4323197 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Don't lay no boogie-woogie on the king of rock-n-roll. Bullilsh!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:25 | 4319201 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Now someone just might point out that stuffing the channels contributes to this..... naw. That would be too obvious with the MSM. Continue the propaganda!!!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:25 | 4319396 Martel
Martel's picture

If you like your economy, you can keep your economy.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:15 | 4319159 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

"That's all, Folks!"

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:15 | 4319161 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

But but but... Promise Zones!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | 4319197 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Are those places where you smoke some chronic and wait for Obama's promises to come true?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:45 | 4319271 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You look like a white male, no promise for you!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:54 | 4319520 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Oh there's a promise to the white males, all right-- a promise that Obama will fuck you over.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 15:56 | 4323200 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

"Will", Buckaroo? It's a done-deal. The crackers just ain't got hip yet.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:16 | 4319164 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

No decoupling of fundamentals and stock prices to see here.  Move along.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:17 | 4319168 jtz5
jtz5's picture

Anyone know how to get the BDI on Yahoo or other stock sites?  I wanted to compare it to the S&P.  Thanks.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:18 | 4319171 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Maybe if the CB's print real paper money, instead of digital fiat, then they could ship all the new paper around the globe and fix the BDI!!! 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:34 | 4319434 linniepar
linniepar's picture

Helicopter Ben and BDI Yellen. Fav comment of the day. +1

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:18 | 4319174 ZeroBoBo
ZeroBoBo's picture

"No worries, I got this"
-Janet

CTRL-P

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | 4319195 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Meanwhile, the Bernank is somewhere in South America sipping a margarita.  But he isn't the Bernank anymore.  He is Giuseppe Carbajal, wealthy industrialist.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:21 | 4319182 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

I buy American made whenever possible. Whoops! Do you like my handy work in that chart?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | 4319199 Truther
Truther's picture

Down Down and awayyyyyy..... Yellen man is here.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:35 | 4319226 Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

Bullish. Buy While it's still cheap, BitcheZ!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:37 | 4319234 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

 

 

Arrrggghhhh mee buckoos.......down she goes........thay be shitwrecked..............that ther' waters be cursed i 'eard.

 BDI downgraded from buoy to shell.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:39 | 4319246 BigRedRider
BigRedRider's picture

Party like it was 1984!  Boo-ya!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:45 | 4319268 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

The only inventory I stacked in Q4 was Ag, Au, and some serious rounds of PbCu projectiles, bitchez!  And I'll keep on stackin' it until this whole fuckin' thing blows sky high Fukushima style. 

and before I forget:  FUK-U-SHIMA, LARRY YELLEN!!!  Same to you Bernanke!!!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:45 | 4319269 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Skippity do da... Skippity ay.....my oh my, what the chart porn says!!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:49 | 4319280 runforthehills
runforthehills's picture

:) exactly.. putting it in perspective: at the same last year the baltic dry was trading at 750 and it was trading over 2,100 just a week ago.. so not such a big surprise to see it fall a little bit.. 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:09 | 4319346 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Percent change charts make good propaganda. but if you lose forty percent of a nickle, who cares? you always have to have the underlying number.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:03 | 4319327 neptune-klm
neptune-klm's picture

It's all because of the "polar vortex" everythings frozen-ha!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:10 | 4319349 starman
starman's picture

We're done! I mean the US not me!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:20 | 4319377 Villageidiot777
Villageidiot777's picture

Must be the weather, because the baltic sea is not frozen so it is cheaper for boats.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:20 | 4319384 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

No one saw this coming.....

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:41 | 4319466 FecundaGoat
FecundaGoat's picture

Couldn't this just mean we are buying less useless crap from china because ObamaCare is soaking up more/all discretionary spending??

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:50 | 4319503 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I'm sure this all just anecdotal data and is completely meaningless. I feel quite sure that those in charge will be the first to tell us when when to run screaming into the woods (likely just in time for them to come take what meager belongings we might still have as payment on our collective debts).

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:11 | 4319771 gcjblack
gcjblack's picture

BDI has been, and is, highly correlated to Bunker C and/or diesel fuel, which in turn, is correlated to crude oil prices.  Add to this the world economy and shipping traffic, and the ship stock (old & inefficient, or new & efficient).

See http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI:$WTIC&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27226548623

 

http://i.imgur.com/H2SJ1KK.png

We appear to have the simultaneous dropping price in crude, plus the BDI's reversion to long term average value.  If there is a ship inventory or world trade effect, these are likely dwarfed by these two known and immediate factors.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:05 | 4319965 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

You can't artificially inflate the numbers for the shipment of real goods like you can artificially inflate the stock market.  Real goods are constrained by reality and real inputs.   The stock market has no such constraints when real money does not reflect real goods and services.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 15:14 | 4320507 PTR
PTR's picture

Put the moves into a bigger context:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

For the BDI, big up and down movments aren't necessarily uncommon.

 

But sharp, oh, mos def.

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