The Good And The Bad News For The Future Of America's Jobs

Tyler Durden's picture

As we reported earlier (and have been for the past three years), there is a reason why the media prefers not to talk about the quality aspect of US job gains, and instead focuses on the seasonally adjusted quantity: there simply is no "quality." Take today for example, when we learned that more than half of the 74K jobs gained in the month of December were temp jobs (which mysteriously were not affected by the weather: only the high paying ones somehow got crushed by snow in December), and when adding the lowest paying retail and wholesale trade jobs, one got nearly 50% more than all the job gains for the past month.

Perhaps the only good news in today's job report is that it is now in the past, because absent from some inexplicably respected so-called pundits doing the most idiotic thing imaginable, and saying to just ignore this report, there was absolutely nothing good one could say about the lowest monthly job gain since January 2011 (driven by temp and retail workers) at least until it is revised several times over the next 3 years when we ultimately learn that today's noisy jobs print was really a gain of 500K jobs. Of course by then, there will be far bigger problem to deal with.

However, while December in the past, the future still remains. And it is here that we have some good and bad news. According to the just released Occupation Outlook Quarterly (OOQ) looking at the period from 2012 to 2022 released by the BLS, in the future the US will be in a significant need of jobs, which is good for all those worried that the economy is grinding to a halt, or those demoralized from not having a job for months on end and unsure if this will ever change.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that as in the case of today, the vast majority of future jobs will pay absolutely miserable salaries.

The chart below shows what we are talking about: it lays out the job categories for the 20 occupations with with the highest projected numeric change in employment. Alas, of the Top 10 highest growing jobs, 9 out of 10 will pay less than $35,000 a year.

Furthermore the composition of where the job growth is expected tells us much about where the government see this nation in the year 2022. Take for example personal-care aides which will be the fastest growing job from 2012 to 2022, among categories with more than 25,000 positions, the Labor Department said in a new report. The field will grow by nearly 50% to 1.8 million jobs.

This is how the OOQ describes this job group:

Personal-care aides help clients "with self-care and everyday tasks, and provide companionship," the newly released Occupational Outlook Handbook said. The job requires no formal education, but most aides have a high school diploma. Workers in the field earned an average annual income of $19,910. “As the baby-boom population ages, there will be an increase in the number of clients requiring assistance,” the handbook said.

What else is expected to soar? Registered nurses, retail salespeople, home health aides and ... fast food workers. That's the sad future of the US: a nation made up of old people desperate for nurses, and paid companions, who go out shopping and eating fast food.

Ok, it is not surprising that the most jobs will go to the unqualified, uneducated, and unmotivated. Is there any hope for higher paying jobs according to the BLS? Some more good news: the answer is yes!

Actually, considering the most in demand higher paying job will be lawyers, forget what we said about good news.

Finally, looking purely at the bad news, all workers in the government, postal service, animal production and newspaper industries have something to look forward to: a pink slip.


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HedgeAccordingly's picture

El-Erian seems to be concerned.. "puzzled" .. perhaps.

knukles's picture

What jobs?
Just you wait till the Democrats and Establishment Republicans all jump on the Amnesty and Immigration Band Wagon.
There won't be a part time job paying shit wages with no bennies for anybody.

Cloward-Piven is coming true

This is the Fucking Transformation Promised Us.

It'll only be after it's too late that people wonder who sold them out.
Way too late.
Maybe it is already.......


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Excellent comment, truthiness here.  As they let in more Future Democrats, you young ones can expect more competition for the entry-level jobs.

Hey, you voted for them...

RafterManFMJ's picture

I've got my next job picked out - gleaner! I'll follow the robotic harvesters, dressed in roughspun sack cloth with a shapeless floppy hat to ward off the dying Fall light of Empire, and stuff precious overlooked potatoes into a muddy discarded Bank Of America rucksack.

knukles's picture

Absolutely magnificent.




Soul Glow's picture

NAFTA is what fucked us.

Hulk's picture

Gatt is the real fucker...

CrazyCooter's picture

Those projections will never come true.

A nation can not continue on a path where all job growth is wiping the asses of the elderly while at the same time sacking the jobs of wealth production.

Consider some of the implications of the jobs that are supposed to *contract*. Seriously?



Ulterior's picture

this fascist flag is banned in some of the countries

WarriorClass's picture

Lower wages?  Thank the Immigration Reform Act of 1965 and it's subsquent iterations.

The Law of Supply and Demand - it's what determines the price.

kchrisc's picture

NAFTA and GATT may have found a hole, but it was the FedRes and their pol and crat government puppets that fucked us.

Put another way: Kill the real criminals,they of the US government and their bankster owners, and NAFTA, GATT, etc. just fade away.


"Hard to put a NAFTA or GATT on a guillotine."

James_Cole's picture

NAFTA and GATT may have found a hole, but it was the FedRes and their pol and crat government puppets that fucked us.

Sure, but they had a partner and that partner was the American people. Easy money and cheap slave made products were all good fun as long as it was your neighbour losing their job and not you. 

Americans made a very clear choice in the 80s - accepting the lie was much more enjoyable than facing reality - damn the consquences. Nothing has changed. 

SF beatnik's picture



No, I didn't vote for them. Seems everybody on the ballot wants to open the doors to the world.


Personally, I welcome the Chinese. They work their asses off, live clean, raise wonderful kids.


Both those from the south?  No no no no no no.....


MrPalladium's picture

How many Chinese? 200 million? 400 million?

Oldwood's picture

I have thought that all of this was to collapse the world economy so they could impose a world currency and bank. Maybe I'm thinking too grand. Our next currency may simply be food stamps. Electronic and already in place. Nobody needs a job with food stamps for everyone.

dunce's picture

People with low paying jobs are better than people on the dole, but they pay little or no taxes. In the not to distant past the majority of tax revenue came from middle class workers. Today the top few % m pay a large part of total taxes. This is not sustainable in the long term. Our debt is not all  held by other Americans and we will not get away with monetizing those trillions. The so called middle class by income today are mostly government employees that consume wealth not produce it. You can not eat your iphone and you can not wear entertainment in a polar vortex. You can not drive a solar powered 18 wheeler.

angryBuddhist's picture

Good point that it is the top % paying a larger share of taxes while a growing bottom end paying no taxes at all (in fact a net consumer of tax dollars in the form of govt support payments) and a shrinking middle class with the assiciated shrinking tax revenues from that sector, all is not well with the status quo. It is unfortunate that those at the top fail to realize that proper implementation of monetary policy will not only increase their net worth but reduce their total tax burden by actually encouraging the middle class to grow once again which will result in a larger share of taxes (once again) raised by people happily at work and being truly productive. The strategy of bleeding the middle class dry and shifting all the wealth to a minority elite is not sustainable and will only backfire in ways most unpleasant. History has shown this to be a fact sure as gravity exists.

Harbanger's picture

"It'll only be after it's too late that people wonder who sold them out.

Way too late.
Maybe it is already......."


It was way too late decades ago.  Now it's a full blown battle for our future.  I'm so grateful I was born during this age.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Maybe I missed seeing it above, but for young people, being a paralegal might work out.  Boring, but you do not need a specialized degree, just being a college grad and "smart" is all it takes.  The money is OK.  And it is behind a desk, which matters for many.


If you can take the cold, almost any job in North Dakota pays well, even after housing.  Study engineering, and ND will pay you A LOT.

Example: when we were in Bozeman, Montana recently, the hotel desk clerk was studying Petroleum Engineering at MSU there in town.  He told me that when he got his first job (there in E Montana), they would likely pay him $200,000 for the first year...

AGuy's picture

" but for young people, being a paralegal might work out."

Unlikely, as there is is a sea of unemployeed lawyers. Many lawyers end up getting paralegal jobs just to help pay there student loans off.

"f you can take the cold, almost any job in North Dakota pays well, even after housing. "

Its A bubble that about to pop. Its a bubble financed by credit as the margins on LTO are razor thin and probably just another giant ponzi scheme as the drillers will simple default on the debt. Already creditors have been wising up and are no longer lending more money to the drillers. The Bakken Boom is going to bust either later this year or in 2015.

 "He told me that when he got his first job (there in E Montana), they would likely pay him $200,000"

Hope the clerk has a plan B!


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Perhaps so re lawyers having to take paralegal work.  But, I know a few young folks who are paralegals, and doing just fine.  [boring work]

ND, well maybe.  But, it is my opinion that petroleum engineers will be in big demand as the country has to look ever harder to find more oil...  Getting a Pet E degree is also hard, so not many can assess how much oil there may be in that reservoir.  Just sayin'...


Always have a "Plan B"!

CrashisOptimistic's picture

CiO's 3rd Law of the Universe:


If you are in a job that is well paid, then someone is contracting with a firm to build a robot to automate you away.

CrazyCooter's picture

"Artificial intelligence is that which we don't understand" - Bill Joy

WEIRD: I had this Bill Joy quote hanging in my cube for years, but it doesn't google for shit.



CrazyCooter's picture

My conclusion, from many years ago, is that a job will only pay well over the long run if the job requires special talent (e.g. brains) in addition to education.

Petroleum Engineering is *HARD*. As are a lot of applied sciences which are in demand, such as computer science, some engineering disciplines, and so on. And there has to be a market for the labor on the back side of the education process.

Did I misread when all the new jobs are brain-dead elderly ass-wiping jobs? Nursing and medical can definately require talent, but to be paid for the patients have to produce or have savings. All the growth is medical; it won't happen because it can't.



zhandax's picture

Unfortunately, you are right.  I would start a company tomorrow to calibrate, certify, and/or repair medical diagnostic equipment if this lunatic government didn't do everything in their power to insure you go broke via insurance, regulation, and taxes.

Rafferty's picture

Wrong.  Public sector jobs requiring litttle or no skill or training can pay big bucks. A university librarian in Ireland earns about $180,000 plus index-linked pension equating to 66% of salary.

Or what about this guy in NY?

lordbyroniv's picture

Lawyers as a growth industry?  i dont think so.  Too much anecdotal evidence that says the legal sector is in collapse.

Atomizer's picture

That's why the gay marriage push is so fundamental. The heterosexual market figured out this industry, has dried up attorney’s cash cow market. I give it 2 years before the metrosexual groups retreat revenue earnings for theses BAR parasites.

zhandax's picture

"Lawyers as a growth industry?  i dont think so.  Too much anecdotal evidence that says the legal sector is in collapse."

We should be so lucky.  Atomizer, I hope you are right but they always seem to have the inside track on new exploitables on the horizon.

CuttingEdge's picture

I would have thought lawyers would be third in line for the old lampost & pianowire combo when the SHTF. Just behind politicians and banksters.

Kobe Beef's picture

A politician is the metastatic form of lawyer.

Never One Roach's picture

Law as a solid business is almost dead unless you use it as an additional resource with something else. Think of this; I read Houston has over 25,000 lawyers and Dallas 22,000, for example.

Selling cell phone service in the mall will yield you more income.

The "Hard Sciences" used to be safe but I see more companies recruiting even these workers from the foreign pool of cheap labor, mainly India and China but also now from other countries.

It's going to be a very rough haul for all those in the private sector from here on out unless Globalization is slowed down.

Silver Bug's picture

Remember everyone! This is a "Jobless" recovery! Just keep repeating it to yourself until it becomes reality.

DEADTIME's picture

why not include soldiering? I made a life of it, I had incredible adventures, I made fairly good money, I have a good retirement, and I got to shoot people I didnt like....Its been grand.

NoDebt's picture

Good for you, man.  Not sure if you noticed but they cut your pension last week.

knukles's picture

Don't rile his ass, the goobermint has already declared him a danger to our way of life.

AGuy's picture

And his healthcare benefits too!

seek's picture

In three years "people I didn't like" is going to include a lot of folk's next door neighbors, and sleeping at night will get lots harder for more than just conscience reasons.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Now that's good for a big fat plus one!

DEADTIME's picture

In the 23 years I served not once would I say that even a small group of soldiers in my company would turn on the American people. Many times in fact the talk turned to "what if's" and to a man each said they would fight with the American patriot and against a tyranny that would seek to enslave them.

The people you should beware of are the DHS, they take no oaths to the Constitution or the people and their training is dubious at best when it comes to the rights of a free citizen.

I sleep well at night knowing that everyone I killed deserved it, and that I would never give an order to oppress my fellow free American nor did I ever. The contacts I have today still feel as I do, if and when the time arrives the good men who wear our nations uniforms will by and large fight for freedom and against Mordor on the Potomac.

zhandax's picture

Do the majority of them realize that the 'red, white, and blue' they remembered has been replaced by the advancing stages of a tyranny?

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

even if you 'lose your pension'? doubt it. it will not be a grand BANG all out war. it will start gradually. internal police action for small uprising. soldiers will be threatened with their pension and losing TRICARE (which will put their families at risk of high insurance or no treatment). most will respond because it is only a small encroachment up the publics freedom....hell, if they pass enough laws, even unconsitutional ones, the soldiers may think they are doing the righ thing by 'following the law'.....then it will will get worse, and worse, and worse...


and eventually, there will be a big BANG, but by the time it gets here most of the people that could have actually done something will be gone. even when the soldiers turn against their masters, the numbers will be small enought that even a smaller group of crazy loyals can control everyone (think with drones). it will be too late. the gate will be closed. all hopes of returning the pre-1913 will be will be a new day, in the empire of the us...or will it?

Rafferty's picture

" not once would I say that even a small group of soldiers in my company would turn on the American people."

Ok. But the profile of the average American soldier is being fundamentally and rapidly replaced.  The traditional White Chrstian male is being replaced by.........well, any alternative they can find.

Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

This is probably because according to some, including on this site, the real economy basically stopped growing in any real manner about 14 years ago. Ever since the fed created the dot com bubble, and probably since nafta, the real economy has been in constant decline, while being papered over by govt spending/ fed printing, and changes in how the GDP, unemployment, long term deficit, and other such bullshit is calculated. It has managed to keep the illusion alive for most up until now, but it's starting to reach a point where more and more must be done while yeilding diminishing returns.

NoDebt's picture

I'm going to become a librarian.  Little bit of growth (if you believe the chart, above, which I don't), nobody bothers you, indoor work, quiet.  All I need is one of those giant chains to hang my reading glasses from.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

And, if it's a decent library there are lots of good books to check out and read...

NoDebt's picture

Books?  Oh yeah, books.  Yeah, I'll definitely check some of them out and like.... do whatever it is you do with books.

knukles's picture

Guy walks into the library and asks where the self-help books are.
Librarian says that'd kind of defeat the whole purpose.