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Real Unemployment Rate Of 11.5% Means Difference To Reported Rises To Record

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The gross manipulation of the unemployment rate due to the plunging labor force participation rate and the soaring, record number of people that are not in the labor force is by now, we hope, clear to all. Yes, millions may be dropping out of the labor force because they can't find a job which somehow means the US economy is getting better, but sadly the US civilian, non-institutional population keeps rising, and hit a record 246.7 million in December. Which is why every month we show what the real unemployment rate would look like when normalized for the fudged participation rate by taking a 30 year average.

Today, we find that the difference between the reported (6.7%) unemployment rate, and the implied using realistic assumptions for the US labor force, which remained at 11.5% where it has been ever since the start of the Second Great Depression, just hit a record high 4.8%. As did the spin, lies and obfuscation by the administration that "all is well."

And why 11.5% is precisely where the unemployment rate should be based on the employment to population ratio:

 

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Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:16 | 4319358 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Oblameo declares all of USSA a Promise Zone !

Hoax and Chains, baby !

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:13 | 4319359 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

In other words, the biggest 'growth industry' is now ... lying.

One more thing America can brag about - "Our lies are growing faster than yours".

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:14 | 4319612 Buckaroo Banzai
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Washington DC-- the Saudi Arabia of lies! Huge underground deposits of lies, with some of the best lying liars to produce them!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:21 | 4319641 LawsofPhysics
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"When things get bad, you have to lie." - some stuffed shirt from the E.Z.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:22 | 4319649 ronaldawg
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So is the Eurozone reported unemployment rate of 12.5% BS too?  If so why?  What kinds of tricks are they playing?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:30 | 4319672 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The umemployment rate among people 18-30 in many southern E.Z. countires is already close to 50%.  based solely on the people with children I know in Italy and Spain.  Eventually, something will give.  At least in Spain much of economy has moved underground already.  hence, the reason I remain long black markets and sharecropping.  The same thing happened in the former Soviet Union in the late 80's and the same thing will happen in the U.S., regardless of what the "official" word from your corporate puppets is.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:17 | 4320233 Ranger_Will
Ranger_Will's picture

Black markets are the only thing keeping Cubans alive in their "Socialist Paradise."  It is a sign of things to come here in the US.
See how one journalist tried to survive Havana for one month on an average state salary:

http://www.penultimosdias.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Harper-Havana-O...

On the uspide, Socialism is great for losing weight.  Must be why the Wookie gets to have her little nutrition programs to make it look like all the stavation that is coming was planned to make America "healthier."

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:31 | 4319873 daxtonbrown
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I'm long pitchforks, lamp posts, tar and feathers.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 16:54 | 4320865 Leopold B. Scotch
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I see by omission you acknowledge I've already cornered the tumbrel market.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 16:59 | 4320880 survivor727
survivor727's picture

Never happen.  US Population = APATHY!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:16 | 4319368 Spastica Rex
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If you don't have a job, you don't count.

Period.

The economy is doing great - everyone who is entitled to a job has one.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 13:08 | 4319882 max2205
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People are now cheaper to buy than bacon. And i don't mean by the pound

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 13:19 | 4319944 BuddyEffed
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If you don't work you don't eat!   -- Granny character in The Outlaw Josey Wales

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 13:52 | 4320119 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

One of my favorite movies ever. I never get tired of it.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 15:59 | 4320687 King_Julian
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"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining!" -Fletcher

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 18:22 | 4321068 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

"Get ready, little lady. Hell is coming to breakfast." - Lonte Watie

 

Some of the best lines come from that character:

"I didn't surrender, but they took my horse and made him surrender. They have him pulling a wagon up in Kansas I bet."

Or

Josey Wales: When I get to likin' someone, they ain't around long.

Lone Watie: I notice when you get to DISlikin' someone they ain't around for long neither.

 

God there are so many great lines in that film:

"Dyin' ain't much of a living, boy."

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 21:29 | 4321233 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

Yeah, great movie.  Good plot, good acting.  Some Philosophy, some hiumor, some drama, some action, some twists.

The talk with Ten Bears is so classic.   No signed paper....   I'm just giving you life and you're giving me life.....   I'm not promising you nothing extra.....  I came here to live with you, or die with you.  Dieing isn't so hard for men like you and me when everthing you've ever known or cared about has been raped or butchered....   There is iron in your words of life....  I reckon so.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:19 | 4319375 TeamDepends
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Peak Obfuscation.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:19 | 4319376 Spastica Rex
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You ain't seen nuthin', yet.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:41 | 4319729 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Yep, there's no limit to obfuscation, as it is the primary tool of any government.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:20 | 4319380 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

The are lies, damned lies and Obama.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:17 | 4319629 Buckaroo Banzai
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Definition of a Pathological Liar

Facts
There are two distinctly different types of lying. Pathological lying is manipulative lying so that the person can get his way. Pathological liars have little regard for the feelings of others or the morality of their lies. Pathological lying is frequently associated with another mental disorder. Compulsive lying is often referred to habitual and chronic lying, which is lying about many things simply out of habit. Both types of lying are believed to begin during childhood.

Features
A study by Yang et al., published in the British Journal of Psychiatry in 2007, found that brain scans on pathological liars showed structural differences in the prefrontal cortex of the brain. This area of the brain controls morality, honesty and remorse. In pathological liars, this area has a higher amount of white matter and a lower amount of gray matter. In this area of the brain, white matter is possibly associated with increased brain activity, and gray matter is associated with the controls needed for moral behavior.

Identification
Pathological liars often confuse truth and falsehoods and, during a structured interview, are inconsistent in their responses. Pathological liars may believe their lies are the truth. Pathological liars are intelligent, manipulative and may be self-centered. It is unknown if pathological lying is controllable by the individual. It is possible that a pathological liar may believe his lies to the point that he is delusional.

Considerations
There is conflicting information regarding the difference between a pathological liar and a compulsive or habitual liar. In the three different references used for this article, the definition of a pathological liar and compulsive or habitual liar often appear to be the same. The difference in brain structure, or clinical difference, may be the only true difference between pathological and habitual, or compulsive, lying.

Potential
The ability to identify a pathological liar based on brain function may be of use in the criminal justice system to help determine the validity of a statement by a witness or potential suspect. There may also be value in employee screening to determine the best applicant for positions requiring honesty and trust. In the future, medications may be able to be developed to counteract the structural differences of pathological liars and provide insight into treatment options such as therapy with pharmaceuticals or simply therapy as in the case of compulsive, or habitual, lying.

http://www.ehow.com/about_5117545_definition-pathological-liar.html

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:21 | 4319642 ronaldawg
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Where do Lawyers (err..... liars) come into this?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:33 | 4319696 Buckaroo Banzai
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Well, they are one of two types of people: compulsive liars, or pathological liars.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:34 | 4319701 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

errr..........so they think a drug can cure pathalogical liars of their affliction.  

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:43 | 4319742 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Lobotomy pills are all the rage these days, I hear.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 16:33 | 4320779 bh2
bh2's picture

The seminal work on psycopathy is The Mask of Sanity. This is an introduction: http://www.cassiopaea.com/cassiopaea/psychopath.htm

It begins:

Imagine - if you can - not having a conscience, none at all, no feelings of guilt or remorse no matter what you do, no limiting sense of concern for the well-being of strangers, friends, or even family members. Imagine no struggles with shame, not a single one in your whole life, no matter what kind of selfish, lazy, harmful, or immoral action you had taken.

And pretend that the concept of responsibility is unknown to you, except as a burden others seem to accept without question, like gullible fools.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:20 | 4319383 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

We're becoming Europe in employment and Japan in monetary policy.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:25 | 4319402 oak
Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:34 | 4319437 Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

Silly Durden, don't you know 2 + 2 = 5. If .GOV says chocolate rations are going up then who are you to object.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:35 | 4319442 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

If you like your insurance, you can keep it.

Oh wait.  Thats not it.

If you like your privacy you can keep it.

Damn, thats not it either.

If you like your job you can keep it.

Shit.  Not it again.

Never mind.

Shut up and get back in line.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:23 | 4319654 ronaldawg
ronaldawg's picture

No more unemployment lines - it is done over the internet - therefore no chance of others meeting people who are also unemployed and rioting.  BRILLIANT!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:37 | 4319448 thunderchief
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You'll get your job Americana, when 100RMB equals $100. You'll get it at the local sweatshop or prison.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:48 | 4319496 Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

Prison wages are as high as $2.25/hr in the USSA. If foxcon workers strike we don't have to worry one bit.

I'm bullish local Manufacturing Jobs. watch Ticker CCA

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:24 | 4319653 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly.  Prison workers in America still earning more that Foxcom workers, apparently, there still is a long way to fall.  By the way, the PBoC is still printing the shit out of the yuan.  they are singly-party merchantilist, history shows where their society is heading.  None of this is really "good" for anyone by the way.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 13:48 | 4320094 Nobody For President
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A greenie lfor the 'by the way' at the end, LOP.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:40 | 4319449 Cannon Fodder
Cannon Fodder's picture

I was talking to a co-worker yesterday about the potential layoffs we face as we are going through a merger. Her reply was "oh well nothing to worry about the economy is great! It might even be beneficial as you will get a severance and the can probably get a job right away". My VP a few months ago even conveyed this same sentiment. Unbelieveable.

All that matters is the headlines. People see 6.8% on CNN or hear it on NPR on their drive home and that is all that matters. The sheeples perspective is that all if fine....

 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:47 | 4319492 indygo55
indygo55's picture

"The sheeples perspective is that all if fine...."

 

Yup and that's exactly how "they" want it. Who are "they"?

 

These guys:  http://www.pseudoreality.org/committeeof300.html

 

 

 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:58 | 4319537 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Part of the economy's growth is based off of corporate earnings......mergers have been happening left and right as bigger corporates are gobbling up smaller companies, thanks to cheap corporate debt from their primary TBTF dealers (who get their ZIRP cash from the Fed).

Then, after acquisitions, layoffs occur and the top of the income scale eats the difference.  They buy stocks with it, the market moves up, and the top 20% of the country is happy.

I bet the folks you talked to are in the 20% of earnings.  That's what the system works for; it isn't the 99% vs the 1% (as reflected in the data; it is however in a societal context). 

We'd be in civil war if that was actually the case.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:49 | 4319498 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

By the time we get to mid terms we will be at  3% unemployment, nobody will be working but at least the reported numbers will look good. In the mean time we have record numbers of people on snap and disability. The lies are amazing.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:55 | 4319524 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Let's buy some stocks!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:56 | 4319526 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

I wonder what the under-employment rate is?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:34 | 4319702 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

There are 90 million people not in the workforce.

Let's suppose the there is an OBAMAJOBS office in Washington DC with 6 windows and everybody has to stand in line. 6 lines each person 1 foot apart.

Where does the line start? Los Angeles!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 13:05 | 4319867 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

The real unemployment according to Shadowstats is 23%. Shadowstats uses the BLS methodology prior to 1994. In other words, this is the number you get if you include all the people out of work who have been "defined away".

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 13:39 | 4320057 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

That is the U6 rate at 23%, not U3 which is what the 11.5% represents.

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