So, Who's Lying?

Tyler Durden's picture


As was reported to mass jubilation on Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls number soared to the highest monthly change since November 2012, a 238,000 increase driven by what the report said was a 48,000 increase in construction jobs.  ADP's Mark Zandi went on the record to say that “The job market ended 2013 on a high note. Job gains are broad-based across industries, most notably in construction and manufacturing. It appears that businesses are growing more confident and increasing their hiring." It appears not. According to today's BLS report in December, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the construction industry lost 16K jobs. And where it gets really funny is when one looks at construction on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, construction jobs plummeted by a whopping 216,000! However you cut it someone is obviously lying. If we cared we would ask who. However, since both data series are completely fabricated, who even cares?

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Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:18 | 4319169 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

It's Rabbit, it's Duck Season!

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:20 | 4319181 akarc
akarc's picture

Open season on workers. No bag limits. 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:23 | 4319192 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Maybe ADP does payroll for Obama's secret clone army?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:49 | 4319282 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Who's lying? ALL of them - of course.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 12:27 | 4319664 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

Anyone who follows this stuff knows the ADP numbers are totally worthless.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 13:42 | 4320068 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Hit the market with good ADP, then control the 10yr by revealing poor BLS.  DOW and S&P trade sideways, so markets aren't hit out of confusion.  10yr falls.  Mission accomplished.

In a fascist environment, it's all made up as we go along.


Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:46 | 4320396 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nice post-diction...

If it was so obvious, why are not trading it and making a fortune??

Or are you just projecting?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 15:32 | 4320574 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

so, you saying because ADP puts its number out ahead of the BLS number, then the BLS can modify its number to 'impact' whatever conditional outcome it wants?

nah, the .gov is always upfront, transparent, and truthful. /sarc off

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:53 | 4319295 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

ADP's problem is that a year or so ago, tired of being hammered by the gov for reporting accurate numbers, the decided to hop in bed with the gov and go along with the BLS.  Everything had been fine except ADP didn't get the memo the other day.  In order to paint repubs as mean, cruel, and heartless the gov switched gears and decided to put another 1/2 million people on long term unemployment.  500,000 more victims in a booming economy.  Stocks are at all time highs,

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:07 | 4319342 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Luckily the economy has completely recovered or I'd be worried about the huge number of unemployed.


...wait a second.....

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:30 | 4319421 headhunt
headhunt's picture

'ADP's problem is that a year or so ago, tired of being hammered by the gov for reporting accurate numbers'

More like the NSA looked up the CEO's voice and email - and let him/her know

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:11 | 4319352 Cojones
Cojones's picture

Maybe ADP is looking for tapering and BLS is looking for more QE?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:57 | 4319284 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Did you eat the sprinkles?  Did you fudge the job numbers......not even a little?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:22 | 4319190 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

All is lost for those that have no idea where that quote comes from.

An era missed.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:31 | 4319219 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

All I ever needed to know about life, I learned on Saturday morning's as a child. 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:21 | 4319393 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It's also where central planners learned about economics.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:25 | 4320293 meltdown
meltdown's picture

Falling anvils, flattened cartoon animals. Desert bi-pedal birds that run so fast that the road seperates from it's base.

A talking rabbit who is smarter than everyone but the artist.

Comedic pretend violence, some of the funniest shit ever.

To watch them now you have to search the interweb and by the dvd.

Needless to say the "new ones" suck big donkey dicks.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:11 | 4319355 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Do you want to shoot him now, or wait til you get home?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:15 | 4319364 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

It was a trick question!


Answer: "both"

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:18 | 4319173 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Money under my pillow this morning, tooth fairy lives !

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:18 | 4319175 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Pathological liars frequently have problems getting their stories to agree with each other.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:20 | 4319179 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

No contradiction.  Jobs are getting split two for one thanks to Scumbamadon'tcare.

ADP counts pay checks, not total dollars.

I have tax clients in construction, as in waiting for their land to increase in value, so they can breath again.  Mostly down to office help and a couple of maintenance Dudes.  Those hours are easy to divy up.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | 4319198 madbraz
madbraz's picture

ADP = Mark Zandi


need I say more?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 21:09 | 4321496 Galactic Superwave
Galactic Superwave's picture

Anyone who invests in what Mark Zandi recommends deserves to lose their money.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:49 | 4319500 90's Child
90's Child's picture

I still get paid weekly by adp sometimes more than I worked but I ain't complaining.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:22 | 4319185 madbraz
madbraz's picture

If there was a corruption index in the US, it would be at an all-time record high.


Then again, if such an index existed, it would be manipulated...ah, never mind

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:43 | 4319263 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


"So much for the good news…

As Wall Street goes, so goes the nation.  And here’s a look at the closing numbers: racism’s up, human rights are down, peace is shaky, war items are hot - the House claims all ties.  Jobs are down, money is scarce – and common sense is at an all-time low with heavy trading.  Movies were looking better than ever and now no one is looking because, we’re starring in a “B” movie. "

- Gil Heron Scott, "Living in a B Movie"

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:44 | 4319267 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

shizz, the movie we are cast in is called" THEY LIVE"

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:22 | 4319186 madbraz
madbraz's picture


Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:00 | 4319319 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture




=Else, Ramp

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:24 | 4319200 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

adp number sounded fish with surge in construction jobs ... in winter ...

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:25 | 4319205 iLiquid
iLiquid's picture

No prob, just hold on while we adjust the seasonally adjusted seasonal adjustments.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:26 | 4319206 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Can I haz  4-methylcyclohexane methanol?


On a more related point:

Sounds like someone's statistical sampling needs to be updated for the New Economy... 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:33 | 4319222 Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

methylphenylpropanamine is more of my poison... to each his own.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:04 | 4319336 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There is something to be said for chemical simplicity  and efficacy of Cyanide...

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:26 | 4319406 Musashi Miyamoto
Musashi Miyamoto's picture

Fair enough... I'd more likely to take the path of Chujiro Hayashi

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 14:49 | 4320412 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You gotta be real commited to pull that off...

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:26 | 4319209 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"so who;s lying?"

really...were talking about Mark Fucking Zandi...

every word out of his establishment bullshit filled mouth is a fucking lie.........

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:54 | 4319301 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Who's not lying?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:26 | 4319210 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Who ain't?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:30 | 4319214 grunk
grunk's picture

Chris Christie!

Robert Gates!

Duck Dynasty!


You're a racist!

There, the public discourse is back on track.

Why lie when you can change the subject? 

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:40 | 4319250 Rich V
Rich V's picture

Listen to Fox Mulder:

"Trust no one"

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:46 | 4319273 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Uhhh..they are both lying

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:56 | 4319298 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Obama, Wall Street and media says everything is better just buy more stocks!


Mark Zandi says bullish. Moodys says, never mind the real numbers, they have their own.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:55 | 4319300 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Part of the problem is ADP counts part time jobs. Additionally, they dont break out demographics. BLS data has been showing the deomographic growing in particiaption rate are 65 ad older. ADP also doesnt look at those dropping out of the workforce. A big jobs gain may sound great, but if 500,000 stopped looking for work we are still looking at a degrading jobs market in relation to population. Simply put the US has a population problem. I'm sure the government is well aware and will start a large war or release some disease to cut down on the population.


Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:55 | 4319303 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

Lying is the new grey, lying is the new black  . . . .     


and the black 'n' greys are all f*kin lying.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:56 | 4319305 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

why is our 'monetary system' shrouded in secrecy?

the whole fucking thing is one big lie.....

who gave us this 'monetary system'?

which country celebrates 'debt-slavery'?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 10:59 | 4319316 jtz5
jtz5's picture

Stupid question, I'm sure, but...why can't the US just require all businesses to submit a 5-minute online qre asking about the # of people added/subtracted to the payroll each quarter?  They have to file quarterly taxes, why not just make it part of that requirement?  I mean, come on, am I missing something?

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:07 | 4319341 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Yes, you're missing something. Gubbermint stats exist to justify its actions to the sheeps, so any stats that contradict the official narrative must be monkeyhammered to fit the narrative. Anyone who disagrees and/or can prove said monkeyhammered stats to be complete bullshit is 'unpatriotic', a 'terrist', or 'a ignant biatch', and not to be believed.

Fri, 01/10/2014 - 11:37 | 4319447 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Actually all employers do this when they file their payroll taxes. They should just publish these bare numbers.

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