Did Goldman Just Kill The Music? - "The S&P500 Is Now Overvalued By Almost Any Measure"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.... We’re still dancing."

      - Chuck Prince, July 2007

Late last night the music may have just skipped a major beat after Goldman released a Friday evening note that is perhaps the most bearish thing to come out of Goldman's chief strategist David Kostin in over a year, (and who incidentally just repeated what we said most recently a week ago in "Stocks Are More Expensive Now Than At Their 2007 Peak"). To wit:

S&P 500 valuation is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market (15.9x) as well as the median stock (16.8x). We believe S&P 500 trades close to fair value and the forward path will depend on profit growth rather than P/E expansion. However, many clients argue that the P/E multiple will continue to rise in 2014 with 17x or 18x often cited, with some investors arguing for 20x. We explore valuation using various approaches. We conclude that further P/E expansion will be difficult to achieve. Of course, it is possible. It is just not probable based on history. 

 

The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market as well as the median stock: (1) The P/E ratio; (2) the current P/E expansion cycle; (3) EV/Sales; (4) EV/EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow yield; (6) Price/Book as well as the ROE and P/B relationship; and compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7)
nominal 10-year Treasury yields; and (8) real interest rates. Furthermore, the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio suggests the S&P 500 is currently 30% overvalued in terms of (9) Operating EPS and (10) about 45% overvalued using As Reported earnings.

Cue David Tepper to bring out even bigger greater fools who do believe in his 20x PE multiple "thesis." Cause if 20x works, why not 40x, or 60x, or moar?

* * *

Kostin's full "market is now overvalued" note:

We believe S&P 500 currently trades close to fair value and the forward path of the market will depend on the trajectory of profits rather than further expansion of the forward P/E multiple from the current 15.9x. We forecast a modest price gain of roughly 3% to our year-end 2014 target of 1900. We expect S&P 500 will climb to 2100 by the end of 2015 and reach 2200 by the end of 2016 representing a gain of 20% over the next three years.

However, many clients argue that the multiple will continue to expand in 2014 leading to another year of strong US equity returns. A forward multiple of 17x or 18x is often cited, with others suggesting 20x is reasonable given the strengthening US economy and low interest rates. Many on the buy-side have year-end 2014 targets between 2000 and 2200 reflecting a price gain of 9% to 20%, well above our more modest projection.

The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market as well as the median stock: (1) The P/E ratio; (2) the current P/E expansion cycle; (3) EV/Sales; (4) EV/EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow yield; (6) Price/Book as well as the ROE and P/B relationship; and compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7) nominal 10-year Treasury yields; and (8) real interest rates. Furthermore, the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio suggests the S&P 500 is currently 30% overvalued in terms of (9) Operating EPS and (10) about 45% overvalued using As Reported earnings.

Reflecting on our recent client visits and conversations, the biggest surprise is how many investors expect the forward P/E multiple to expand to 17x or 18x. For some reason, many market participants believe the P/E multiple has a long-term average of 15x and therefore expansion to 17-18x seems reasonable. But the common perception is wrong. The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 during the past 5-year, 10-year, and 35- year periods has averaged 13.2x, 14.1x, and 13.0x, respectively. At 15.9x, the current aggregate forward P/E multiple is high by historical standards.

Most investors are surprised to learn that since 1976 the S&P 500 P/E multiple has only exceeded 17x during the 1997-2000 Tech Bubble and a brief four-month period in 2003-04 (see Exhibit 1). Other than those two episodes, the US stock market has never traded at a P/E of 17x or above.

A graph of the historical distribution of P/E ratios clearly highlights that outside of the Tech Bubble, the market has only rarely (5% of the time) traded at the current forward multiple of 16x (see Exhibit 2).

The elevated market multiple is even more apparent when viewed on a median basis. At 16.8x, the current multiple is at the high end of its historical distribution (see Exhibit 3).

The multiple expansion cycle provides another lens through which we view equity valuation. There have been nine multiple expansion cycles during the past 30 years. The P/E troughed at a median value of 10.5x and peaked at a median value of 15.0x, an increase of roughly 50%. The current expansion cycle began in September 2011 when the market traded at 10.6x forward EPS and it currently trades at 15.9x, an expansion of 50%. However, during most (7 of the 9) of the cycles the backdrop included falling bond yields and declining inflation. In contrast, bond yields are now increasing and inflation is low but expected to rise.

We addressed equity valuation using the Fed model and interest rate sensitivity in our December 6th US Weekly Kickstart. Simply put, the earnings yield gap between the S&P 500 and ten-year Treasury yields currently equals about 325 bp. Goldman Sachs Economics forecasts bond yields will creep higher to 3.25% by year-end 2014, a rise of just 25 bp. If the earnings yield gap remains unchanged, then the ‘fair value’ multiple according to the Fed model would be 15.2x at year-end 2014. The implied index level would be 1900 assuming our 2015 EPS forecast of $125. However, bond yields could rise by more than we expect and hit 3.75% while the yield gap could narrow to perhaps 275 bp. The resulting EPS yield of 6.5% represents a forward P/E of 15.4x implying a S&P 500 level of 1923. Exhibit 4 of the Dec 6th Kickstart shows valuation using various yields and yield gaps.

Incorporating inflation into our valuation analysis suggests S&P 500 is slightly overvalued. When real interest rates have been in the 1%-2% band, the P/E has averaged 15.0x. Nominal rates of 3%-4% have been associated with P/E multiples averaging 14.2x, nearly two points below today. As noted earlier, S&P 500 is overvalued on both an aggregate and median basis on many classic metrics, including EV/EBITDA, FCF, and P/B (see Exhibits 5-8).

 

* * *

Then again, this is Goldman, where dodecatuple reverse psychology in recos is the norm. If Goldman has just gone bearish, it would logically suggest it is very short and is hoping for a crash. But it could also mean it is hoping its clients panic and dump so collapsing trade volumes finally soar and Goldman makes at least some money on commissions, or is waiting for a plunge in stocks so it can put its massive cash hoard to use, or simply planting the seeds of the next Lehman-like event (now over 5 years later), which would serve as the periodic reset of what once used to be a business cycle? We are sure to find out soon because whatever happens, there will be volatility.

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Sat, 01/11/2014 - 13:50 | 4322924 stock trout
stock trout's picture

Quick summary: Goldman is now overall short the market. Please start selling. 

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 13:55 | 4322933 economics9698
economics9698's picture

5 years and 2 months, ah fuck missed it by a couple of months.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:41 | 4323049 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

It's called covering your ass.  The Lloyd must be getting nervous.

Overvalued?  Well surprise, surprise Goobers.  Welcome to the party five years late.

If rational expectations do return, remember that some animals are more equal than others.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:43 | 4323057 flacon
flacon's picture

I don't know... I have SPY puts and I am scared shitless. Try it some time... buy puts on SPY and watch your digital wealth get vapourized. Even the Fed is trying to tame this BEAST. Friday's close at the high of day is typical, I bought some calls at 3:58pm as protection. Could we see "all time highs" in the next day or two trading? Probably. 

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:51 | 4323076 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

The retail investor isn't even in yet. When the retail investor capitulates and goes all in, then the market crashes. Correction, ie -10%,?.... probably, so that the big boys can get back in. But a crash, i.e. >40%,? Not on the horizon.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 15:38 | 4323165 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Must be time to harvest the Muppets

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 16:31 | 4323267 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

So, GS wants my shares - Go long?

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 17:12 | 4323359 knukles
knukles's picture

We already know they're long a piss loada gold in the house account, no?

Go figure

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 19:07 | 4323521 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Of course the major banking houses are long gold.  Look which asset class rebounded first in the Fall of '08, long ahead of the stock market bottom in the Spring of '09.  

Downside risk 30% - 45%, say GS.  That would be quite a fall.  When would Ol' Yellen start hollerin' to Un-Taper?  When GS [ticker symble] fell 20%?  30%?

There is price fixing.  The Fed is engaged in massive monetary central planning.  Gold is the only money that can neither be destroyed or created by the rougue central banks which maraude the global economy.

- David Stockman

The central banks use a fallacious model to predict what should be done and the banking houses dance until the music stops.  

And the party is over.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 19:19 | 4323687 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

I don't know David Stockman other than what I read. He seems sincere, but he has been crying "FIRE" for many years now. One day he'll be right ... just not sure when, and if I will still be around to congratulate him.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 20:32 | 4323851 zaphod
zaphod's picture

I'm confused, when the squid says to sell gold it means I should buy and when the squid says to buy gold it means I should sell. Does this mean that I should buy stocks now?!?

Or is the squid trying to double bluff me?

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 23:38 | 4324145 PT
PT's picture

They need someone to buy more CDSs so they can make some more synthetic CDOs.

Sun, 01/12/2014 - 08:47 | 4324455 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

We are all missing the big screw job here.

The big Banks have excess reserves of  about $1.5Trillion.  When taper starts they scream " the end" and watch the  market collapse -- then they will start buying up the goodies.

With their excess reserves ( paid for by the taxpayers )  they will go in and by the blue chips at pennies on the dollar and it will be mission acomplished.  

The banksters will finally own it all.

Nice trick if they can pull it off.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 17:30 | 4323405 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

So, GS wants my shares - Go long?

I know, it makes no sense, but they seem to be nearly 100% contrary as an indicator.  Could this time be a head-fake?

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 19:39 | 4323733 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Even if the DJIA booms it means nothing if inflation booms faster.  You still lose.  Gold.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 17:04 | 4323335 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

Like I said, the retail investor really isn't in yet. The muppets are not yet in the studio. Go back and look at volumes. Volumes are half of what they were in 2007. If the big boys blow up the set now they won't hurt enough people, so what is the point in that. And as much as ZHers hate to admit it, me included, look at capital flows. Pension funds need returns and they aren't getting returns in the bond market. Or, if you are an institutional investor in Japan or Europe where are you going to invest? I would still pick the US over both those basket cases. But who really has a bloody clue? Just that I got nuttin else to do.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 18:09 | 4323502 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

I used to be a retail investor.  I am not in this Mock Market and don't want to be.  Even Muppets like me don't want to get burned over and over again.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 19:09 | 4323654 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

And that is kind of my point. The retail investor is not back, so the market has further to go. TuPhat, you might be able to resist the next move to 17K or 18K or 20K on the Dow. But for lots of I-was-burned-in-the-past "investors"/traders, the temptation will be too hard to resist as those mile-markers are overtaken. And as the sheeple flock back into the market, then, and only then, will it crash. That is a part of history that is worth noting.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 20:58 | 4323912 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

So, let me see if I got this straight. If we stay out of the market, we lose. If we go in the market, we lose. Is that the gist of it?

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 22:24 | 4324055 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

You just nailed the golden rule do the stock market for the past 15 years. "Heads they win, tails you lose". The stock market is rigged worse that a carney game on the midway. In fact, you have a better chance if actually winning playing Black Jack or roulette in Vegas.

The easiest way to beat them at their own game is to continue to stack Gold, Silver, Lead, and Food as much as you can afford each month. Starve the beast so in the end the HFT bots just fight between themselves. We are damn near that point right now, just look at the volume drop over the past year especially.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 22:56 | 4324094 Lore
Lore's picture

That's a key point. Awareness of manipulation is finally reaching critical mass.  It's a MMORPG, not a market.  Retail participants are SUPPLANTED by insiders and algos.  Real capital is flowing elsewhere.  The real market isn't buying Greenspan's imaginary "Wealth Effect."  What's amazing is that it took this long. 

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 21:15 | 4323933 ebear
ebear's picture

"I used to be a retail investor."

So did I. Now I'm a retail short seller...LOL!

However..... (pause and italics for emphasis)

I would never attempt to short blue chips or major indices, especially with puts.

OTOH, there's a lot of first rate garbage out there selling at ridiculous multiples where the float is too small to attract the big fish.  The retail investor may not be in the majors as yet, but they're up to their eyeballs in the usual get rich quick schemes.  I cite Tesla as one example (no position) but there are many others.   When these suckers blow they go down hard because unlike the majors, they are too small to bail.

Sun, 01/12/2014 - 10:22 | 4324511 irishlink
irishlink's picture

How many people have lost on Cramer's pick WPRT this past year. Now down over 50% from high. I have never seen such churning in a market. Gold and silver has also wrecked portfolio's over the past year. Will the shale/cracking bubble be the next casualty? I believe so , as some of the estimates and valuations will kill off the marginal players.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 16:39 | 4323285 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Wherefore art thou horizon?  Remember the chart where the Great Depression runup was superimposed over the last few years, and they are shockingly similar?  Well, if the trend continues D-day is 1/14, as in Tuesday.  Black Tuesday?

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 18:10 | 4323506 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I'm positioned for a move lower from Tuesday forward. History has a nasty habit of repeating itself since the idiots in charge never learn from it. 

 

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 21:47 | 4323995 ebear
ebear's picture

I'm goona go out on a limb here and state that this time it really IS different, but not for 1999 reasons, where the future was so bright you needed welding goggles just to look at it.  No. What's different this time is the counter weight to equities simply isn't there.  I'm talking about all classes of income from govt. paper to munis to MBS and even junk.  Blue chip debt may be an exception, but that's truly a picker's market.  Most of them will also take a hit somewhere down the road.

So what's left, if you HAVE to be in, and your main concern is not earnings per se, but simply owning something that will survive, such as a major producer of consumer goods like J&J (no position) that's been around forever and that when it's all over will still be there.  Granted it could take a while, but in the meantime you don't have to sell unless you're leveraged, and you can add to positions when those who are blow up.  You can't say that about bonds where you have reinvestment risk, to say nothing of the very real chance of default. Also, as the rest of the world crumbles, money will increasingly flow into the US seeking, not returns, but simply relative safety, so there's another driver to consider.

 

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 23:09 | 4324110 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I have been sitting on the sidelines for some time and yes, it galls my ass to have missed the moves higher, but I just cannot bring myself to participate in the irrational exuberance (i.e. mickey mouse) markets of late. Just waiting for the markets to display the Rastafarian Death Rattle...  

Sun, 01/12/2014 - 00:27 | 4324198 ebear
ebear's picture

Just to be clear, my rationale for why the markets will move higher (or at worst sideways with the occasional downdraft) is not a rationale for being IN the market.  On the contrary, I've been on the sidelines for several years now and quite comfortable with being left behind.  I don't see it as my right to make money in the market, even if I have in the past.  Like anything else I've done, when it stops being fun, I give it a rest.   This thing stopped being fun in 2008, but I guess that goes without saying.  Today, as I mentioned elsewhere, I'm focused on shorting crap companies, mainly because it's such easy pickings.  When that no longer works, I'll find something else to do.  Maybe trade corn futures or open a home for wayward girls... heh.  The future, as always, is a blank slate.  The only thing I know for sure is that time is the only thing I really have, and for that reason I use it as wisely as possible. (posting to ZH notwithstanding)

Sun, 01/12/2014 - 07:02 | 4324409 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Wasn't there some data presented recently (I think on ZH), by a contributer, that the retail investor is in fact "in"?  In other words, the article made the argument that is somewhat of a myth that there are legions of retail investors sitting on cash waiting for the right moment. The "retail investor on the sidelines" and "cash on the sidelines" is another myth perpetuated by the mainstream financial media in order to encourage the masses to BTATFH. 

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 16:54 | 4323310 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

goldman bearish publicly?   that means they got inside scoop on more fed buying and going long.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 20:42 | 4323876 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Listen not to what they say but watch carefully that which they do, eh?

Sounds pretty Goldman(ish) to me... 

I am staying out of this shell-game-three-card-monte-shit-show-cluster-fuck-chinese-firedrill-goat-screw-circle-jerk-ponzi-prison-rape.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:52 | 4329411 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

Your last sentence ... very Carlin-esque !! +1000

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 20:38 | 4323868 beachdude
beachdude's picture

Flacon, did you buy my SPY Jan14 175 Calls? That's precisely when I sold them. Lol, small world, isn't it?

Sun, 01/12/2014 - 10:48 | 4324536 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

I agree Flacon.  The  Fed has learned that it cannot jaw bone the market down without panic and they do not want to flagerantly create the percepton that they are in control of the equity market so they are brining in the squid.  I really do not see the so called retail investor's returning other than a company 401k.  The lack of retail investor participation is what will eventually crush the banks and insurance companies again.  They avoided the pain in 2008-09 because of "mark to fairy land accounting", but you cannot pull that off with equities.  

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:56 | 4323083 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

Return of rational expectations, 20 years.

My life expectancy going forward, 20 years.

Think I'll flip a coin.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:28 | 4322993 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Rosengren and Evans cronies, as well as members of US Congress, are out of the market too. Bernanke filed paperwork to open a hedge fund, Bernank Short LP.

Please start selling.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:26 | 4323016 Count of Lastovo
Count of Lastovo's picture

Only if you can turn those short on a dime.    Goldman will know in advance when Yellen will untaper and print more.    So they may go short for the next few weeks but they will be long on the day Yellen Fed Reserve announces QE increased to 100 billion per month.    

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:58 | 4323039 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

The Fed will hit its unemployment target of 6.5% next month, declare a victory, and continue tapering.

You will see $0 before you will see $100 billion/month. The Fed wants out from QE before everyone realizes QE is nothing more but a psychological placebo and a wealth transfer mechanism.

Pumping up bank Excess Reserves parabolic (QE) does not work because no matter how much money the Fed injects into the system, the velocity of money adjusts reciprocally down.

Velocity of M2 Money Stock
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V?cid=32242

Real GDP is a function of Velocity and M2. The Fed can pump up M2, but the Fed politburo cannot control Velocity.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:59 | 4323092 Keyser
Keyser's picture

So who is going to buy US Debt and where will rates go? As much as they would like to taper, they have no choice but to continue, whether is the guise of QE of through some other mechanism. We are already hearing overtones of QE5 due to Obamacare. 

 

 

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 15:27 | 4323104 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Re: "So who is going to buy US Debt"

This is a very good question.

Japan has been buying EU debt, I guess they can switch to buying US debt (when US rates are higher) before the Fed restarts QE5 (after ~50% stock market plunge and after GS covers their short positions).

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 16:52 | 4323308 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

don't know why you're getting down arrowed...think you're spot on. A strong dollar does support high p/e's so in that sense this article is incorrect. a strong dollar is not good for equities vis a vis "creating loan demand" so it's hard to say how profits will do...obviously Sears took it on the chin this week as Americans simply scaled back on all purchases dramatically. "the stong dollar buys debt" basically. if resource prices crash...and i'm talking something dramatic here...then one of the few assets you have to protect yourself with is treasury debt. talk about "Samurai Bonds." Treasuries are backed up by the full force of the United States Navy...let alone a nuclear fleet that's running flat out right now just to stay cash flow positive. "they have negative rates" in that industry as they say. with Warren Buffet now going all in on wind farms in Iowa...good luck competing with that. that pennies a kilowatt hour profitably. "the means of production" can be moved...to the "means of distribution" too. top of that list is Duluth, Minnesota. If they start building out wind farms in that State energy costs will drop to near zero.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 21:38 | 4323981 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Not sure either. But i think they have to concentrate on buying their own debt first.

Sun, 01/12/2014 - 01:34 | 4324249 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

And the wargames in the China Sea where 1/3 oil moves across.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 17:25 | 4323389 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

The two largest holders of US debt are the Federal Reserve and the Social Security Trust Fund. Add other internal government agencies and the government itself owns the majority of its own debt. Sound screwy? Well it is. The money is all just electronic and gets moved around differnt accounts to suit the occassion. This also gives rise to the possibility of the government just "forgiving" all that debt. You never know what the bastards are up to.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 23:39 | 4324146 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Insurance companies have to raise capital too. Lest we forget they were the ones that got "bombarded" in 2008. "Taper fears" could cause them to raise capital the only legal way they can right now...by buying treasuries. That includes European insurers...as well as Chinese ones I might add. I see nothing right now to prevent yields from not merely retesting their all time record lows...but doing so "smartly" from here.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 16:55 | 4323312 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

classic strategy by wall street.  publicly go long a few million, but spread a bigger position short.

 

Misdirection, misinformation.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 14:27 | 4323017 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Since we are now way, way, way over 600 days since the last 20% + correction, this bitch will drop 40% at least before Yellen puts the Fed into Hyperdrive and hyperinflates the dollar into Yen status. 1021 is my support level call for 2014 before the panic causes the overreaction.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 15:32 | 4323156 Wait What
Wait What's picture

What it really means: Goldman is telling everyone it's short so its muppets will sell their shares and it will ride the Fed's balance sheet to 5 trillion and 2200 S&P. Untaper! Untaper!! Behaviorism 101, kids.

Sat, 01/11/2014 - 16:38 | 4323284 humtum
humtum's picture

good dost lan torla

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Sat, 01/11/2014 - 20:47 | 4323896 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Kick this fuckhead the hell out.

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