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Just Three Charts

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With today's biggest drop in stocks in over 4 months, we are reminded of three recent charts that raise considerable questions as to the path forward. From Mclellan's 1928 analog to Hussman's bubble trajectory and the extremes of bullish sentiment, this week marks a 'line in the sand' for bulls to take this to the Hendry moon or for it not to be different this time...

 

Mclellan's 1929 Analog...

 

Hussman's Bubble Trajectory...

Based on the fidelity of the recent advance to this price structure, we estimate the “finite-time singularity” of the present log-periodic bubble to occur (or to have occurred) somewhere between December 31, 2013 and January 13, 2014.

 

 

And the Market's Most Bullish Bias On Record...

 

Is it any wonder there are less BFTATH-ers left?

 

Charts: John Hussman, John Mclellan, and @Not_Jim_Cramer

 


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Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:28 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's so perfect that it won't happen.

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

DOW will recover over 100 points in the last 10min

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:36 | Link to Comment AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

The earlier spike in gold reported on Zerohedge is getting even more spikey:

Live Gold Chart: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

Is spikey a word?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

This is by FAR the worst day of this ENTIRE YEAR! 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:47 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Time for a quantum leap in Schrodinger's wave to a linearly assumed single point arrival at weightier levels.
Californium life span like.

And if that were not enough, A-Rod's gonna be wishing he were back in Madonna's arms for the next year.

 

Oh them negative T-Bill yields.
Is it a flight to quality, shortage of collateral, both or none of the above?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:49 | Link to Comment onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

"Mortimer, err, Janet....get in there and BUY!  BUY!  "

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:32 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

If you follow the Julian Calendar...today is New Years Eve.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

BITCOIN!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Charts make my head hurt.....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:04 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Just wait until JPM and WF report before the open tomorrow morning and then give their 2014 outlooks.  Then the rush to the exits will begin in earnest.  The writing is on the wall for anyone who cares to read it.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:15 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death I will fear no evil, for thou art with me.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:56 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Nothing to fear folks.

Ole Mellon Headed Yellon will save the day.

 

(Has anyone else noticed that Yellon's head looks like a ripe mellon of the Honeydew variety?)

Compare here.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:44 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

his log chart has the dow only 2000 points over-valued.  he must be a bull.  look at the chart!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:02 | Link to Comment Four chan
Four chan's picture

the banks will smash their earnings of worthless fiat as usual.

after all how hard is it to create return, when your product is supplied for free

courtesy of zirp, it's created out of thin air, and all your customers have been brainwashed

sufficiently, to trade their precious lives for your nothing. no longer able to see the master

has on no clothes.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 07:04 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

 

BITCOIN!

 

Surveillance! When you absolutely want your entire life to be an open book.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:46 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Did you ever notice that the word "bitcoin" can be rearranged to spell "it bi con"?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Which is Latin for what?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:47 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

ad praesens ova cras pullis sunt meliora ad quem ad quod
Eggs today are better than chickens tomorrow

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:25 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps we need to adopt a different perspective. For instance: Chickens are what eggs use to create other eggs. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:39 | Link to Comment SunRise
SunRise's picture

Bitcoin

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:35 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

'Dick Butkus' The most ferocious LB in NFL history and one of my childhood heroes. This bear is gonna do a Dick Butkus head-in-chest arm wrap plow-you-into the turf tackle on the bulltards before this is over. Butkus would be ejected within the first qtr. based on new rules, but he epitomized the basic 'tackle' to perfection.....He is the GOLD standard and SILVER lining of what used to be 'Pro Football'!!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:44 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

If you follow paper...

Then... TIMBER!

Look out below!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:18 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I wasn't paying attention...do we buy the fucking dip now?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:40 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

no

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 02:54 | Link to Comment SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

Pathetic that ZH continues to pump out the same perma bear view. Meanwhile S&P up 32% last year.....

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, why do you bother coming here?

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 01:13 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Seriously people, screw the calendars. The real New Year's eve was 21st December.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:13 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It all depends. I'm making money on my S&P500 contracts shorts; so I don't see what's wrong with today. Of course I did lose $4,000 on my Bond position when it stopped out; but no matter, my GBP shorts and maybe S&P, shorts, will cover it with change to spare.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

"Is spikey a word?"

 

Only if you have an extremely large goldmember.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:55 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

"Spikey" is Latin for "assfuckingapproaching" usually only used in the vernacular.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Usually by those with elephant sized goldmember's.

 

When size truly matters.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Not today, I don't think.  Today would be a bad time to BTFD.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:35 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Looks like Fed money-printing taper is happening/continuing come hell or high water, and earnings outlooks are setting up to be far from rosy.  This is likely the start of the sell-off everyone here has been calling for the past few years.  If you believe the Fed runs the show, they are very transparently telegraphing that the freebies are rapidly running out and anyone who cares to listen better adjust accordingly or get steamrolled again. 

The Fed and banks take it up, then run it down.  Now we go down.  This is the year.  When bonds and equities both are sells, where does all the counterfeit slosh to?  Commodities and hard assets, that's where.  This is just the start.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:45 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

entire countries have been wiped off the map. including Detroit. "and we got a mid sized pick up truck" after 100 billion. this is America...not Venezuela. Who these clowns think they are is beyond anything I can imagine. "Get to work"? Yeah...right.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:03 | Link to Comment therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

We will be working for those who are buying everything.  The Chinese.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:17 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Yea, looks like 100pt robot-rally didn't happen......Bob Pissonme said BTFD!!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:59 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Yup!

SSDD

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:34 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

It's 3:30pm... Buy this dip? /joke

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:51 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The dips running this market are known as the Fed and I think they have been bought already.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:58 | Link to Comment BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Really hoping you make a few $$$ on your puts here.  I wish I had some.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I just needed one more push to put 5k in a dow put and than you blew it :)

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:15 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You have to learn to sell highs and buy lows. And never, never, regret the past or try to blame anyone.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:43 | Link to Comment XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

1928-30 dow chart

 

looks like gold chart 2011-2013

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:37 | Link to Comment tempo
tempo's picture

Get use to the boring, frustrating small trading range of +/-5% for all of 2014

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:38 | Link to Comment JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Presenting, the Bitcoin chart for 1929:

 

 

 

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:51 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

It is so perfect that everyone, such as yourself and 55 others here believe it will not happen....and we know what that means.....

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 06:15 | Link to Comment Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

You can see that the red line overshoots the black one by a little bit every time, so as a total investment amateur, I'm guesstimating that the DOW(n) will hit 17k (March-April) before it crashes... :-P

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This time=Different. Though, eventually, this time's time will be up.

Nothing lasts forever but the Earth and sky. All your money, won't another minute buy.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Insert MDB quote here:

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:03 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

we have two MDB's....one calls himself "Bogus." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis this was supposed to have led to a market collapse in the USA...http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/economy/july-dec98/stocks_8-31.html instead we're at Dow 16,000 right now.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:48 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

it helps when your central bank can print fiat from mere atoms and that you have the dominant currency and most of the nuclear weapons.

16,000 is a fairy tale it represents nothing save pure speculation, whoever wets themself first and cashes out wins, after that its a hard tumble back to 785.

There is nothing left but illusions, try not to lean on them, they cannot be trusted.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:41 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you better Get Smart here...if we could send satellites out into Space at 50,000 miles per hour we can grab pretty much whatever we want in the entire Solar System. if these interest rates plunge from this will not be from a lack of funding either. the entire metals complex would be at risk...let alone huge...or even small...mining plays. Coal should be safe...but these new I-phone batteries are probably powerful enough to power your ship once you get into zero g.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | Link to Comment riot-police
riot-police's picture

Bank earnings coming out. There is no way they are going to pay full price. Dump stocks today. Record earnings tomorrow. They will buy at a discount, ride price back up.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:52 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree we have to cross the Grand Canyon here...but this isn't daredevil Eval Knieival stuff. The bridge has been built and we'll admire the view. Give the over leveraged inflation traders a wide berth. These folks had no problem taking out Detroit and NOBODY said "boo." Awful, disgusting...downright unAmerican actually...but we'll still be moving the metal for another 100 years. Buy Harley or Polaris if you want some quality..."they never qualified" as they say. AWESOME companies...real capitalists who wear overalls not fancy suits and not the bailout tycoons "passing as such."

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:43 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

so private gains and socialized losses is the way to go here now? for the record i don't have a problem with that either.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:33 | Link to Comment EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

Nikkei indicated down 2,9 % (15.455) ... steep decline in Asia tomorrow = total sell-off in Europe

Game on!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Keyser
Keyser's picture

I doing my best Kyle Bass immitation this time

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:54 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....which also means some unknown party will hammer the pm's to make sure they do not ppear to be a safe haven...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:34 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The move up to 2007 was compared to the 1929 top - now it's the 2014 top.

 

S&P500 hourly on Friday said reversal

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-closes-final-hour-bull-cha...

 

But the key will be the rest of the week - we need to see follow through to the downside or it's more record highs - this dropl is long over due.

 

We are still - wait for it - 50 S&P points above the December low. 

 

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Keyser
Keyser's picture

There will be blood in the streets this week. 

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:18 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Not for long.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:35 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I never fade the summation index. Ever.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:04 | Link to Comment FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

It's like 2009 again.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:07 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Sell gold, buy Lulu.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Toby Connor: Another Bubble Looking for a Pin

 Toby Connor provides a very interesting set of charts and market observations. Nothing grows up to the sky and he reminds us that every parabolic move ends in correction. This Friday extremely volatile FOREX moves are the first sign of repositioning by the major players. 10 Year Yield has reached 3.0%, mortgage rates are already going higher and mortgage applications are collapsing - markets can not be sustained by only rising Twitter and other social media. Janet Yellen will be tested very early in her rein and idea that QE can be actually extended is not so crazy any more.

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/toby-connor-another-bubble-looking-f...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Charts 2 and 3, yeah.

Chart 1 - huge difference in the percentage moves between 1928-30 and now invalidates the analogy.

NYSE breadth is still positive. It may get ugly when that lets go.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Funny how the word "bullish" is so close to "bullshit".

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

between bullshit and bananas lies logic

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:49 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

You are very wise indeed.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:51 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

LOL !!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:41 | Link to Comment bdub2
bdub2's picture

The last down day in history: 1-13-14. 

/

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

It's always a good time to buy housing and stocks.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

RobotTrader, is that you?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:34 | Link to Comment NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

I miss RoboTrader, what happened to all the amusing trolls?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:53 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Yeah, now all we get are unamusing trolls.

Oh, for the US 'american' citizenism days of AnAnonymous, alas, alas, three times alas, make me laugh!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:23 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Your comments to AnAnonymous were funny. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

he made a fortune and is driving a Lamborghini someplace sunny. "the Polar Express" for the rest of us.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:19 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Me too; she had a pretty bra.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

PPT to aisle 3.  PPT to aisle 3 PLEASE

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:44 | Link to Comment loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

TZA, Bitchez!!  :-)

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

My, this is unsettling. Is there some way that I can convert my Facebook shares into Bitcoin while bypassing the dollar via Russia and Iran?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:09 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

say hello to reserve currency status.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:31 | Link to Comment BTFDemocracy
BTFDemocracy's picture

Bitcoin is out; the thing now to buy is Coinye Coin-

http://coinyeco.in/

LOL

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:45 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Tyler you better bring out the damn deer! This may be our only chance!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:53 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

It's a little early, but I can feel the deer coming. A whole herd of them, in fact.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:43 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

And it goes down a lot faster than it goes up!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:46 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I might actually turn the "Blowhorn"CNBS on for the close, just to see the steaming pile of bullshit they serve up for the sheep.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:50 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

"stocks close well off their lows."

 

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:57 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"The Pause that refreshes."

What's higher, the number of people who watch cnBSc or the now non-Alcoa Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:32 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

What's higher, the number of people who watch cnBSc or the now non-Alcoa Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average?

Thank you, TIS, for once again pointing out the salient fact that must be thrown in the faces of all the stock pimps who dare trot out a multi-decade chart of the Dow as some kind of 'proof' of the infallible and unbeatable record of the performance of equities over the long haul ---- namely, that there is NOT any single "the Dow", as that index, like most others, is continually 'updated' and redefined as older, weaker-performing stocks, like Alcoa, are dropped as newer, stronger-performing stocks are added to the index, making any multi-year, and especially any multi-decade, comparison between its values very much an inapplicable and misleading apples-to-oranges comparison.

ANYONE who points to the supposed performance of "the Dow" over a 20 or 50 year period is either an idiot or a liar, or both.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:46 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

All you need to know is the DOW priced in GOLD.....It is like the PINKO COMMIES meeting the wrath of GOD.....and it will happen.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Donewidit
Donewidit's picture

Agreed...I can wait till 2020 for dow/gold 1:1....patience.

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbullmarketth...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

Pisani: "Volume was noticeably weak Maria, so I don't think you can consider this a sell off."

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:50 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Where prunes fail, CNBS always succeeds.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

got me some VIX calls 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:49 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (corporation) is in its FOURTH bankruptcy! It's a Criminal System based on Criminal Fraud & Deception. Birth certificates are securitized via the Federal Reserve through the IMF.
Our Souls were put down as collateral to pay back the debt via the Bankruptcy of 1933. The only power The Global Criminal Oligarch Cabal Bankster Intelligence Crime Syndicate have over you is through CONSENT CONTRACTING (Black's Law Dictionary) with the Criminal Fraud.

Bankruptcy 1: 1791, about the time the Bill of Rights and signing of the Constitution was finalized.
Bankruptcy 2: 1861 (about 70 years later) resulting in the issuance of 'greenbacks'
Bankruptcy 3: 1933 (again, about 70 years later) when gold was confiscated by the government, and finally
Bankruptcy 4: NOW--since 9/11/2001 ( almost 70 years to the day as the last bankruptcy was September 10, 1931.

Source: http://realitybloger.wordpress...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:57 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

The LOVERS of FREEDOM & TRUTH will take back the 'System' in a protest of 'Non-Action' (Starving The Beast) which is the HIGHEST form of ACTION and RELIGIOUS in nature (forget Christianity and the other 'organized' religions---which are a product of ignorance.) TRUE ACTION is the abnegation of ' SELF-DIRECTED ACTION. This ACTION is 'FREEDOM' of the highest form and this ACTION is 'JUST and TRUE'.......

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:49 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

crime pays. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIG_bonus_payments_controversy quite well apparently. "son, when you grow I hope you get a job with AIG."

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:59 | Link to Comment therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

Jeeez, you sound like Hemingway!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Surging Chaos
Surging Chaos's picture

Get to work, Mr. Yellen.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

Here's a fourth chart - another analog - S&P/DJI

http://eideticresearch.com/uploads/2/8/3/4/2834543/djia_-_sp_analog_december_12_2013.pdf

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:03 | Link to Comment caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

GM is puking on pickups right now and needs desperately to get more slobs and billybobs into the showrooms for a new $40,000 ride.  Even with all the booshit loans GM still needs to unload the overpriced, high profit bunghole haulers.

I believe this taper and market correction will probably give TPTB whatever they need to accomplish the task of smashing oil as well as gold and silver.    

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:14 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

"accomplish the task of smashing oil as well as gold and silver"

There is no one shot and done. When the price gets pushed down it gets more attractive to purchase.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:20 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I look forward to your comments as to when.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:25 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Not sure what you mean.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:03 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

picking bottoms ain't easy either. to make you need to both...not just buy low sell high...but sell high...buy low. So sure...end of the world in 2008/9 "start buying"...there was only one crazy man who stepped into that breach and that was Uncle Warren. "The usual chatter was the usual chatter." As it turned he's now become the richest man in the world. He's no dummie...he took a one percent stake in XOM...not a Coke like position. He might build it to that...but you'd need real management in there before he'd do that. Don't even get me started on GE which he has a massive stake in.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:15 | Link to Comment Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

 

 

Uncle Warren is NOT the "richest man in the world"

There are at least 4 people wealthier than him.

Look it up.

 

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 06:46 | Link to Comment caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

There is no one shot and done.

you musn't watch the overnight futures of gold and silver?  Believe me they will start to "jawbone", very soon, how there is so much oil that we are lucky the oil companies can still be in business and make money!!  

Wake up, just a game.  It's gonna be all good right up to the point - it isn't.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:52 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Again...GREAT JOB TREASURY DEPARTMENT! SELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL.......

(and i'm being totally serious when i say this. they unload the taxpayer's position in GM this past month. excellent work.)

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:21 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Good clue for you, eh?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:03 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Teach your BROTHERS & SISTERS the nature of 'ACTION' (behavior) and this system will COLLAPSE imminently.......Greed and Fear will be CONSUMED in the beauty of 'TRUTH'....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:02 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Teach your BROTHERS & SISTERS the nature of 'ACTION' (behavior) and this system will COLLAPSE imminently.......Greed and Fear will be CONSUMED in the beauty of 'TRUTH'....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:45 | Link to Comment therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

95% of all loans are either vehicles or student debt.  GM can't make a buck somewhere in there?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:07 | Link to Comment BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

needs to fall around 50% more

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:55 | Link to Comment teolawki
teolawki's picture

So you're looking for a soft landing?

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 01:12 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Seriously disturbing avaatar....fight club or otherwise...

ori

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:09 | Link to Comment halfawake
halfawake's picture

rather see an analog of zimbabwe or weimar.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:20 | Link to Comment debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Won't happen this time. It's all in or die. The point is, when trust in markets, i mean the fake psychology that drives paper promises, vanishes, where are the currencies going to end up. Nowhere. Because it's too late by that time to get your paper in physical assets. Managed money will go all the way, until people withdraw their money. For now, managed money goes in, look at that guy Hugh Hendry, who got his throat cut by his contributors to "follow the money". All in. Just a few weeks ago. When the all out button is pushed, the lights will go out also.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Anyone seen Hugh Hendry?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

IAMGOLD up a little more than 9% in one day. I think this is it. We've already seen the bottom of gold and now we're on the ride back up. It's worth mentioning that the 2008-2009 crash had bonds and gold bottom at the same time then the stock market bottomed a few months later. Bond yields recently peaked in December and are in decline. This is almost an exact replay of last time. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Lore
Lore's picture

Chart readers wanted a gold close >$1250.  They got their wish.

Anybody expect a JPM smash in the morning?  I do.  I do.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Lore
Lore's picture

"TECHNICAL PULLBACK" IN THIRTY SECONDS.  WHAT A CROCK OF SHIT. 

P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Ends Weaker on Technical Pullback Following Recent Gains (Jim Wykoff, Kitco, 14-Jan)

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Know shit
Know shit's picture

January 19th, so consider this just to be an small appetizer for what is comming in 2014 :)

Btw are you as hungry as I'm ?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:51 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Scratching for any yield at all has caused most 'investors' to leverage up to ridiculous levels where it ony takes a 2% or 3% dip to wipe them out completely.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:00 | Link to Comment Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Bullish !

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:02 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

this is just a small pullback before we push past 1850 to close the year over 2000.

 

just buy more e-minis you'll be aight; the FEDs got our back.    

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:08 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Just another PINKO COMMIE talking his 'book'. See him for what he is (A conformist who has no idea what 'TRUTH' is). If you support or worship at the feet of the FED you are doomed to an ETERNITY of damnation....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:38 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

My position hopes that tomorrow the talking heads on CNBC are explaining to the masses what locked down limit means and exactly how the circut breakers are triggered....  I'm just saying this doesn't feel like the top of this cycle.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:15 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Great anaylsis ZH

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:17 | Link to Comment uhlmant
uhlmant's picture

Its only a 21% drop to about 12750 though...Percentage wise the 1928-1930 drop was 50%.  We need that chart to extend down to 8,100. 

If plotted on the same scale, the 1928-1930 peak was a gain of about 82%.  Current DOW increase only 25%.  If plotted on same scale, implies, current DOW at 23k before crashing.  Such is the problem plotting similar looking data on different scales...you can almost always make something look significant.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the one in 1998 was spectacular...and the market would up finishing WAY up that year.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:19 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

They weren't as high tech with their FRAUD back then. Today the FED's computers can make the market go up or down in 1/4 point increments or have it stand still. Big difference in how the markets worked back then compared to how they work now.

Nice coincidence though.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:23 | Link to Comment realitybiter
realitybiter's picture

1/13/14

=

13/13/13

13th day of the 13th month of last year..

Justa sayin'

oooooooooooooooo

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:38 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Also should be noted is the neg rate on the 1 month T bill -0025%.  For everyone who loves, yes Hendry. the idea that the is an infinite amount of cash to collateral that the Fed can achieve - therefor stocks buying will always have liquidity - you are off your brain.  The Fed distortion of interest rate and cash/collateral markets is started to take shape - big-time.  In other words if collateral runs dry and we have panic selling on stocks, a ton of cash will flow into USDs (Faber could be right) and/or the long Tbills.  Sending rates to the moon, squeezing liquidity out of the market.  Flow on effect will slam the EUR and ECB.

Nice start to 2014.

2011 Collateral squeeze re: 1month tbill goes negative

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/08/04/from-one-crisis-to-another-on...

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:39 | Link to Comment magne13
magne13's picture

Chart set up looks good, bonds have sniffed this earlier and only today do equities catch on.  I am not a top picker, but I would also know better than to buy this with both fixed income and equity charts the way they are not to mention bulls all bullied up.  Anyway I will gladly wait and sell below 1800 than pick a top here, but finger is lightly on the trigger and the hammer is cocked.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:25 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You're not a top picker but you'll gladly sell below 1800; at which point, you will be a top picker. like most people you don't even know what you are, much less what to do wtih a market.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:50 | Link to Comment linrom
linrom's picture

LOL. Wake me up when DOW is Down > 4.52%.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

"The whole point is just to enjoy yourself."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNm5RZoL2Ro

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:16 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

its down 178.  Yawn.  Wake me when its down 660. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:19 | Link to Comment whoknoz
whoknoz's picture

stackers unite: we likey that spikey...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:37 | Link to Comment YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Have we all forgotten that the debt ceiling fiasco will rear itself in February?  (I think the 7th). Back in November, before the cross party 2yr budget deal, I thought we'd see a red December, certainly January, but obviously it didn't happen. I got December's rise completely wrong. I reckon this might be the what I was expecting - a setup for the debt ceiling debate - the red storm to justify more debt 'to save the markets'. So yes, I wouldn't BTFD if I were still playing the rigged casino (I'm not). 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:42 | Link to Comment t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

I guess I will just keep pointing this out until the author here understands finally their errors.  This is wrong:

Is it any wonder there are less BFTATH-ers left?

this is right

Is it any wonder there are fewer BFTATH-ers left?

 

BTFATH-ers is something that can be counted individually, so the word fewer is correct.  Only if it were an indisthinguishable mass like gasoline or piss or HFT cancelled quotes in the absence of Nanex would the word less be appropriate.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:54 | Link to Comment NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Come on, it's totally different this time.  Really, it is.  It's totally completely different.  Totally.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:13 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

To the FAZmobile!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:25 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

The script (trend) will change when TPTB allow it to happen. They're in control now as always. So, they raided the treasury over the past 5 years and have the Fed filled up to the gilts with paper. They want to unwind some of that and need the panic to take the paper off them. Remember, the Fed holds the paper and the Fed owns this concept of a nation. Where I come from, whoever holds the title or deed holds the cards and calls the shots. Hopefully that's just a figure of speech.

If it crashes again, it is by design and their script calls for it. As much as I like to profit from paper games, let's be realistic. What good did the profits do in the past when TPTB are calling in their deeds and holding everyone including nations by the balls.

There is war brewing and even if you or I profit here, the dream is short lived. We need to make moves to kill the beast that controls us and that's all there is to it. Profits are for pussies. The real legacy is never measured in how much gold anyone accumulated or paper wealth they were holding but how much control and power they could muster.

A total revamp or resets is long overdue and the control from TPTB needs to be stripped like yesterday. We're due for a new scipt alltogether, a script where the old forces aren't in control anylonger.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:39 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

Negatve yields, gold spiking. Someone knows something and it's not good news. Coming immediately prior to earnings season is all the more reason to think there's a bombshell or two about to be dropped.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:59 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

$2.13 billion ipo's thurs/fri. Watch for headfakes. They squeeze equity bears and sell treasuries to fund ipo's?

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