• BullionStar
    05/30/2016 - 21:24
    The US Gold Market is best known as the home of gold futures trading on the COMEX in New York. The COMEX has a literal monopoly on gold futures trading volumes worldwide, but very little physical...

Just Three Charts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With today's biggest drop in stocks in over 4 months, we are reminded of three recent charts that raise considerable questions as to the path forward. From Mclellan's 1928 analog to Hussman's bubble trajectory and the extremes of bullish sentiment, this week marks a 'line in the sand' for bulls to take this to the Hendry moon or for it not to be different this time...

 

Mclellan's 1929 Analog...

 

Hussman's Bubble Trajectory...

Based on the fidelity of the recent advance to this price structure, we estimate the “finite-time singularity” of the present log-periodic bubble to occur (or to have occurred) somewhere between December 31, 2013 and January 13, 2014.

 

 

And the Market's Most Bullish Bias On Record...

 

Is it any wonder there are less BFTATH-ers left?

 

Charts: John Hussman, John Mclellan, and @Not_Jim_Cramer

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Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:28 | 4328207 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's so perfect that it won't happen.

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:33 | 4328222 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

DOW will recover over 100 points in the last 10min

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:36 | 4328239 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

The earlier spike in gold reported on Zerohedge is getting even more spikey:

Live Gold Chart: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

Is spikey a word?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | 4328246 flacon
flacon's picture

This is by FAR the worst day of this ENTIRE YEAR! 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:47 | 4328267 knukles
knukles's picture

Time for a quantum leap in Schrodinger's wave to a linearly assumed single point arrival at weightier levels.
Californium life span like.

And if that were not enough, A-Rod's gonna be wishing he were back in Madonna's arms for the next year.

 

Oh them negative T-Bill yields.
Is it a flight to quality, shortage of collateral, both or none of the above?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:49 | 4328294 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

"Mortimer, err, Janet....get in there and BUY!  BUY!  "

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:32 | 4328447 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

If you follow the Julian Calendar...today is New Years Eve.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:37 | 4328460 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

BITCOIN!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:45 | 4328482 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Charts make my head hurt.....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:04 | 4328519 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Just wait until JPM and WF report before the open tomorrow morning and then give their 2014 outlooks.  Then the rush to the exits will begin in earnest.  The writing is on the wall for anyone who cares to read it.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:15 | 4328572 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death I will fear no evil, for thou art with me.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:56 | 4328923 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Nothing to fear folks.

Ole Mellon Headed Yellon will save the day.

 

(Has anyone else noticed that Yellon's head looks like a ripe mellon of the Honeydew variety?)

Compare here.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:44 | 4329216 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

his log chart has the dow only 2000 points over-valued.  he must be a bull.  look at the chart!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:02 | 4329440 Four chan
Four chan's picture

the banks will smash their earnings of worthless fiat as usual.

after all how hard is it to create return, when your product is supplied for free

courtesy of zirp, it's created out of thin air, and all your customers have been brainwashed

sufficiently, to trade their precious lives for your nothing. no longer able to see the master

has on no clothes.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 07:04 | 4330106 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

 

BITCOIN!

 

Surveillance! When you absolutely want your entire life to be an open book.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:46 | 4328487 akak
akak's picture

Did you ever notice that the word "bitcoin" can be rearranged to spell "it bi con"?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:41 | 4328645 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Which is Latin for what?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:47 | 4328661 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

ad praesens ova cras pullis sunt meliora ad quem ad quod
Eggs today are better than chickens tomorrow

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:25 | 4329318 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps we need to adopt a different perspective. For instance: Chickens are what eggs use to create other eggs. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:39 | 4328841 SunRise
SunRise's picture

Bitcoin

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:35 | 4328808 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

'Dick Butkus' The most ferocious LB in NFL history and one of my childhood heroes. This bear is gonna do a Dick Butkus head-in-chest arm wrap plow-you-into the turf tackle on the bulltards before this is over. Butkus would be ejected within the first qtr. based on new rules, but he epitomized the basic 'tackle' to perfection.....He is the GOLD standard and SILVER lining of what used to be 'Pro Football'!!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:44 | 4328480 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

If you follow paper...

Then... TIMBER!

Look out below!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:18 | 4328578 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I wasn't paying attention...do we buy the fucking dip now?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:40 | 4328641 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

no

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 02:54 | 4329925 SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

Pathetic that ZH continues to pump out the same perma bear view. Meanwhile S&P up 32% last year.....

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 09:53 | 4330327 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, why do you bother coming here?

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 01:13 | 4329795 css1971
css1971's picture

Seriously people, screw the calendars. The real New Year's eve was 21st December.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:13 | 4329953 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It all depends. I'm making money on my S&P500 contracts shorts; so I don't see what's wrong with today. Of course I did lose $4,000 on my Bond position when it stopped out; but no matter, my GBP shorts and maybe S&P, shorts, will cover it with change to spare.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:50 | 4328898 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

"Is spikey a word?"

 

Only if you have an extremely large goldmember.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:55 | 4328918 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

"Spikey" is Latin for "assfuckingapproaching" usually only used in the vernacular.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:00 | 4328937 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Usually by those with elephant sized goldmember's.

 

When size truly matters.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | 4328248 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Not today, I don't think.  Today would be a bad time to BTFD.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:35 | 4328458 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Looks like Fed money-printing taper is happening/continuing come hell or high water, and earnings outlooks are setting up to be far from rosy.  This is likely the start of the sell-off everyone here has been calling for the past few years.  If you believe the Fed runs the show, they are very transparently telegraphing that the freebies are rapidly running out and anyone who cares to listen better adjust accordingly or get steamrolled again. 

The Fed and banks take it up, then run it down.  Now we go down.  This is the year.  When bonds and equities both are sells, where does all the counterfeit slosh to?  Commodities and hard assets, that's where.  This is just the start.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:45 | 4328654 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

entire countries have been wiped off the map. including Detroit. "and we got a mid sized pick up truck" after 100 billion. this is America...not Venezuela. Who these clowns think they are is beyond anything I can imagine. "Get to work"? Yeah...right.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:03 | 4329459 therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

We will be working for those who are buying everything.  The Chinese.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:17 | 4329149 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:58 | 4328325 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Yea, looks like 100pt robot-rally didn't happen......Bob Pissonme said BTFD!!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:59 | 4328524 resurger
resurger's picture

Yup!

SSDD

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:34 | 4328228 flacon
flacon's picture

It's 3:30pm... Buy this dip? /joke

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:51 | 4328498 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The dips running this market are known as the Fed and I think they have been bought already.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:58 | 4328518 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Really hoping you make a few $$$ on your puts here.  I wish I had some.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | 4328265 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I just needed one more push to put 5k in a dow put and than you blew it :)

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:15 | 4329956 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You have to learn to sell highs and buy lows. And never, never, regret the past or try to blame anyone.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:43 | 4328271 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

1928-30 dow chart

 

looks like gold chart 2011-2013

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:37 | 4329196 tempo
tempo's picture

Get use to the boring, frustrating small trading range of +/-5% for all of 2014

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:38 | 4329199 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Presenting, the Bitcoin chart for 1929:

 

 

 

 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:51 | 4329235 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

It is so perfect that everyone, such as yourself and 55 others here believe it will not happen....and we know what that means.....

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 06:15 | 4330083 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

You can see that the red line overshoots the black one by a little bit every time, so as a total investment amateur, I'm guesstimating that the DOW(n) will hit 17k (March-April) before it crashes... :-P

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:29 | 4328212 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This time=Different. Though, eventually, this time's time will be up.

Nothing lasts forever but the Earth and sky. All your money, won't another minute buy.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:31 | 4328216 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Insert MDB quote here:

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