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Just Three Charts

Tyler Durden's picture


With today's biggest drop in stocks in over 4 months, we are reminded of three recent charts that raise considerable questions as to the path forward. From Mclellan's 1928 analog to Hussman's bubble trajectory and the extremes of bullish sentiment, this week marks a 'line in the sand' for bulls to take this to the Hendry moon or for it not to be different this time...


Mclellan's 1929 Analog...


Hussman's Bubble Trajectory...

Based on the fidelity of the recent advance to this price structure, we estimate the “finite-time singularity” of the present log-periodic bubble to occur (or to have occurred) somewhere between December 31, 2013 and January 13, 2014.



And the Market's Most Bullish Bias On Record...


Is it any wonder there are less BFTATH-ers left?


Charts: John Hussman, John Mclellan, and @Not_Jim_Cramer


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Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:28 | 4328207 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's so perfect that it won't happen.


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:33 | 4328222 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

DOW will recover over 100 points in the last 10min


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:36 | 4328239 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

The earlier spike in gold reported on Zerohedge is getting even more spikey:

Live Gold Chart:

Is spikey a word?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | 4328246 flacon
flacon's picture

This is by FAR the worst day of this ENTIRE YEAR! 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:47 | 4328267 knukles
knukles's picture

Time for a quantum leap in Schrodinger's wave to a linearly assumed single point arrival at weightier levels.
Californium life span like.

And if that were not enough, A-Rod's gonna be wishing he were back in Madonna's arms for the next year.


Oh them negative T-Bill yields.
Is it a flight to quality, shortage of collateral, both or none of the above?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:49 | 4328294 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

"Mortimer, err, Janet....get in there and BUY!  BUY!  "

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:32 | 4328447 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

If you follow the Julian is New Years Eve.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:37 | 4328460 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:45 | 4328482 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Charts make my head hurt.....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:04 | 4328519 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Just wait until JPM and WF report before the open tomorrow morning and then give their 2014 outlooks.  Then the rush to the exits will begin in earnest.  The writing is on the wall for anyone who cares to read it.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:15 | 4328572 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death I will fear no evil, for thou art with me.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:56 | 4328923 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Nothing to fear folks.

Ole Mellon Headed Yellon will save the day.


(Has anyone else noticed that Yellon's head looks like a ripe mellon of the Honeydew variety?)

Compare here.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:44 | 4329216 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

his log chart has the dow only 2000 points over-valued.  he must be a bull.  look at the chart!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:02 | 4329440 Four chan
Four chan's picture

the banks will smash their earnings of worthless fiat as usual.

after all how hard is it to create return, when your product is supplied for free

courtesy of zirp, it's created out of thin air, and all your customers have been brainwashed

sufficiently, to trade their precious lives for your nothing. no longer able to see the master

has on no clothes.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 07:04 | 4330106 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture







Surveillance! When you absolutely want your entire life to be an open book.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:46 | 4328487 akak
akak's picture

Did you ever notice that the word "bitcoin" can be rearranged to spell "it bi con"?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:41 | 4328645 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Which is Latin for what?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:47 | 4328661 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

ad praesens ova cras pullis sunt meliora ad quem ad quod
Eggs today are better than chickens tomorrow

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:25 | 4329318 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps we need to adopt a different perspective. For instance: Chickens are what eggs use to create other eggs. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:39 | 4328841 SunRise
SunRise's picture


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:35 | 4328808 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

'Dick Butkus' The most ferocious LB in NFL history and one of my childhood heroes. This bear is gonna do a Dick Butkus head-in-chest arm wrap plow-you-into the turf tackle on the bulltards before this is over. Butkus would be ejected within the first qtr. based on new rules, but he epitomized the basic 'tackle' to perfection.....He is the GOLD standard and SILVER lining of what used to be 'Pro Football'!!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:44 | 4328480 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

If you follow paper...

Then... TIMBER!

Look out below!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:18 | 4328578 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I wasn't paying we buy the fucking dip now?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:40 | 4328641 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture


Tue, 01/14/2014 - 02:54 | 4329925 SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

Pathetic that ZH continues to pump out the same perma bear view. Meanwhile S&P up 32% last year.....

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 09:53 | 4330327 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, why do you bother coming here?

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 01:13 | 4329795 css1971
css1971's picture

Seriously people, screw the calendars. The real New Year's eve was 21st December.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:13 | 4329953 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It all depends. I'm making money on my S&P500 contracts shorts; so I don't see what's wrong with today. Of course I did lose $4,000 on my Bond position when it stopped out; but no matter, my GBP shorts and maybe S&P, shorts, will cover it with change to spare.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:50 | 4328898 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

"Is spikey a word?"


Only if you have an extremely large goldmember.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:55 | 4328918 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

"Spikey" is Latin for "assfuckingapproaching" usually only used in the vernacular.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:00 | 4328937 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Usually by those with elephant sized goldmember's.


When size truly matters.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | 4328248 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Not today, I don't think.  Today would be a bad time to BTFD.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:35 | 4328458 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Looks like Fed money-printing taper is happening/continuing come hell or high water, and earnings outlooks are setting up to be far from rosy.  This is likely the start of the sell-off everyone here has been calling for the past few years.  If you believe the Fed runs the show, they are very transparently telegraphing that the freebies are rapidly running out and anyone who cares to listen better adjust accordingly or get steamrolled again. 

The Fed and banks take it up, then run it down.  Now we go down.  This is the year.  When bonds and equities both are sells, where does all the counterfeit slosh to?  Commodities and hard assets, that's where.  This is just the start.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:45 | 4328654 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

entire countries have been wiped off the map. including Detroit. "and we got a mid sized pick up truck" after 100 billion. this is America...not Venezuela. Who these clowns think they are is beyond anything I can imagine. "Get to work"? Yeah...right.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:03 | 4329459 therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

We will be working for those who are buying everything.  The Chinese.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:17 | 4329149 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:58 | 4328325 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Yea, looks like 100pt robot-rally didn't happen......Bob Pissonme said BTFD!!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:59 | 4328524 resurger
resurger's picture



Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:34 | 4328228 flacon
flacon's picture

It's 3:30pm... Buy this dip? /joke

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:51 | 4328498 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The dips running this market are known as the Fed and I think they have been bought already.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:58 | 4328518 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Really hoping you make a few $$$ on your puts here.  I wish I had some.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | 4328265 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I just needed one more push to put 5k in a dow put and than you blew it :)

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:15 | 4329956 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You have to learn to sell highs and buy lows. And never, never, regret the past or try to blame anyone.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:43 | 4328271 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

1928-30 dow chart


looks like gold chart 2011-2013

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:37 | 4329196 tempo
tempo's picture

Get use to the boring, frustrating small trading range of +/-5% for all of 2014

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:38 | 4329199 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Presenting, the Bitcoin chart for 1929:





Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:51 | 4329235 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

It is so perfect that everyone, such as yourself and 55 others here believe it will not happen....and we know what that means.....

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 06:15 | 4330083 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

You can see that the red line overshoots the black one by a little bit every time, so as a total investment amateur, I'm guesstimating that the DOW(n) will hit 17k (March-April) before it crashes... :-P

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:29 | 4328212 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This time=Different. Though, eventually, this time's time will be up.

Nothing lasts forever but the Earth and sky. All your money, won't another minute buy.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:31 | 4328216 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Insert MDB quote here:

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:03 | 4328340 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

we have two MDB' calls himself "Bogus." this was supposed to have led to a market collapse in the USA... instead we're at Dow 16,000 right now.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:48 | 4329059 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

it helps when your central bank can print fiat from mere atoms and that you have the dominant currency and most of the nuclear weapons.

16,000 is a fairy tale it represents nothing save pure speculation, whoever wets themself first and cashes out wins, after that its a hard tumble back to 785.

There is nothing left but illusions, try not to lean on them, they cannot be trusted.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:41 | 4329205 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you better Get Smart here...if we could send satellites out into Space at 50,000 miles per hour we can grab pretty much whatever we want in the entire Solar System. if these interest rates plunge from this will not be from a lack of funding either. the entire metals complex would be at risk...let alone huge...or even small...mining plays. Coal should be safe...but these new I-phone batteries are probably powerful enough to power your ship once you get into zero g.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | 4328221 riot-police
riot-police's picture

Bank earnings coming out. There is no way they are going to pay full price. Dump stocks today. Record earnings tomorrow. They will buy at a discount, ride price back up.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:52 | 4328675 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree we have to cross the Grand Canyon here...but this isn't daredevil Eval Knieival stuff. The bridge has been built and we'll admire the view. Give the over leveraged inflation traders a wide berth. These folks had no problem taking out Detroit and NOBODY said "boo." Awful, disgusting...downright unAmerican actually...but we'll still be moving the metal for another 100 years. Buy Harley or Polaris if you want some quality..."they never qualified" as they say. AWESOME companies...real capitalists who wear overalls not fancy suits and not the bailout tycoons "passing as such."

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:43 | 4329210 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

so private gains and socialized losses is the way to go here now? for the record i don't have a problem with that either.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:33 | 4328223 EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

Nikkei indicated down 2,9 % (15.455) ... steep decline in Asia tomorrow = total sell-off in Europe

Game on!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:44 | 4328655 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I doing my best Kyle Bass immitation this time

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:54 | 4329240 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....which also means some unknown party will hammer the pm's to make sure they do not ppear to be a safe haven...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:34 | 4328227 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The move up to 2007 was compared to the 1929 top - now it's the 2014 top.


S&P500 hourly on Friday said reversal


But the key will be the rest of the week - we need to see follow through to the downside or it's more record highs - this dropl is long over due.


We are still - wait for it - 50 S&P points above the December low. 



Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:46 | 4328658 Keyser
Keyser's picture

There will be blood in the streets this week. 

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:18 | 4329966 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Not for long.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:35 | 4328234 fuu
fuu's picture

I never fade the summation index. Ever.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:04 | 4328343 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

It's like 2009 again.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:07 | 4328357 fuu
fuu's picture

Sell gold, buy Lulu.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:36 | 4328237 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Toby Connor: Another Bubble Looking for a Pin

 Toby Connor provides a very interesting set of charts and market observations. Nothing grows up to the sky and he reminds us that every parabolic move ends in correction. This Friday extremely volatile FOREX moves are the first sign of repositioning by the major players. 10 Year Yield has reached 3.0%, mortgage rates are already going higher and mortgage applications are collapsing - markets can not be sustained by only rising Twitter and other social media. Janet Yellen will be tested very early in her rein and idea that QE can be actually extended is not so crazy any more.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:36 | 4328243 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Charts 2 and 3, yeah.

Chart 1 - huge difference in the percentage moves between 1928-30 and now invalidates the analogy.

NYSE breadth is still positive. It may get ugly when that lets go.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:37 | 4328244 akak
akak's picture

Funny how the word "bullish" is so close to "bullshit".

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:43 | 4328272 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

between bullshit and bananas lies logic

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:49 | 4328295 akak
akak's picture

You are very wise indeed.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:51 | 4328905 Hulk
Hulk's picture

LOL !!!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:41 | 4328257 bdub2
bdub2's picture

The last down day in history: 1-13-14. 


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | 4328268 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

It's always a good time to buy housing and stocks.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | 4328269 akak
akak's picture

RobotTrader, is that you?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:34 | 4328625 NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

I miss RoboTrader, what happened to all the amusing trolls?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:53 | 4328683 akak
akak's picture

Yeah, now all we get are unamusing trolls.

Oh, for the US 'american' citizenism days of AnAnonymous, alas, alas, three times alas, make me laugh!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:23 | 4329166 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Your comments to AnAnonymous were funny. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:56 | 4328687 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

he made a fortune and is driving a Lamborghini someplace sunny. "the Polar Express" for the rest of us.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:19 | 4329971 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Me too; she had a pretty bra.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:42 | 4328264 Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

PPT to aisle 3.  PPT to aisle 3 PLEASE

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:44 | 4328275 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

TZA, Bitchez!!  :-)

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:48 | 4328280 Tinky
Tinky's picture

My, this is unsettling. Is there some way that I can convert my Facebook shares into Bitcoin while bypassing the dollar via Russia and Iran?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:09 | 4328363 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

say hello to reserve currency status.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:31 | 4328439 BTFDemocracy
BTFDemocracy's picture

Bitcoin is out; the thing now to buy is Coinye Coin-


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:45 | 4328281 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Tyler you better bring out the damn deer! This may be our only chance!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:53 | 4328307 seek
seek's picture

It's a little early, but I can feel the deer coming. A whole herd of them, in fact.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:43 | 4328476 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

And it goes down a lot faster than it goes up!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:46 | 4328282 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I might actually turn the "Blowhorn"CNBS on for the close, just to see the steaming pile of bullshit they serve up for the sheep.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:50 | 4328299 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

"stocks close well off their lows."



Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:57 | 4328316 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"The Pause that refreshes."

What's higher, the number of people who watch cnBSc or the now non-Alcoa Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:32 | 4328433 akak
akak's picture


What's higher, the number of people who watch cnBSc or the now non-Alcoa Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average?

Thank you, TIS, for once again pointing out the salient fact that must be thrown in the faces of all the stock pimps who dare trot out a multi-decade chart of the Dow as some kind of 'proof' of the infallible and unbeatable record of the performance of equities over the long haul ---- namely, that there is NOT any single "the Dow", as that index, like most others, is continually 'updated' and redefined as older, weaker-performing stocks, like Alcoa, are dropped as newer, stronger-performing stocks are added to the index, making any multi-year, and especially any multi-decade, comparison between its values very much an inapplicable and misleading apples-to-oranges comparison.

ANYONE who points to the supposed performance of "the Dow" over a 20 or 50 year period is either an idiot or a liar, or both.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:46 | 4328880 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

All you need to know is the DOW priced in GOLD.....It is like the PINKO COMMIES meeting the wrath of GOD.....and it will happen.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 08:04 | 4330163 Donewidit
Donewidit's picture

Agreed...I can wait till 2020 for dow/gold 1:1....patience.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:27 | 4328427 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Pisani: "Volume was noticeably weak Maria, so I don't think you can consider this a sell off."

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:50 | 4328303 akak
akak's picture

Where prunes fail, CNBS always succeeds.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:48 | 4328292 Jason T
Jason T's picture

got me some VIX calls 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:49 | 4328296 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (corporation) is in its FOURTH bankruptcy! It's a Criminal System based on Criminal Fraud & Deception. Birth certificates are securitized via the Federal Reserve through the IMF.
Our Souls were put down as collateral to pay back the debt via the Bankruptcy of 1933. The only power The Global Criminal Oligarch Cabal Bankster Intelligence Crime Syndicate have over you is through CONSENT CONTRACTING (Black's Law Dictionary) with the Criminal Fraud.

Bankruptcy 1: 1791, about the time the Bill of Rights and signing of the Constitution was finalized.
Bankruptcy 2: 1861 (about 70 years later) resulting in the issuance of 'greenbacks'
Bankruptcy 3: 1933 (again, about 70 years later) when gold was confiscated by the government, and finally
Bankruptcy 4: NOW--since 9/11/2001 ( almost 70 years to the day as the last bankruptcy was September 10, 1931.

Source: http://realitybloger.wordpress...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:57 | 4328925 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

The LOVERS of FREEDOM & TRUTH will take back the 'System' in a protest of 'Non-Action' (Starving The Beast) which is the HIGHEST form of ACTION and RELIGIOUS in nature (forget Christianity and the other 'organized' religions---which are a product of ignorance.) TRUE ACTION is the abnegation of ' SELF-DIRECTED ACTION. This ACTION is 'FREEDOM' of the highest form and this ACTION is 'JUST and TRUE'.......

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:49 | 4329229 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

crime pays. quite well apparently. "son, when you grow I hope you get a job with AIG."

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:59 | 4329446 therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

Jeeez, you sound like Hemingway!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:54 | 4328308 Surging Chaos
Surging Chaos's picture

Get to work, Mr. Yellen.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 16:55 | 4328318 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

Here's a fourth chart - another analog - S&P/DJI

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:03 | 4328341 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

GM is puking on pickups right now and needs desperately to get more slobs and billybobs into the showrooms for a new $40,000 ride.  Even with all the booshit loans GM still needs to unload the overpriced, high profit bunghole haulers.

I believe this taper and market correction will probably give TPTB whatever they need to accomplish the task of smashing oil as well as gold and silver.    

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:14 | 4328381 fuu
fuu's picture

"accomplish the task of smashing oil as well as gold and silver"

There is no one shot and done. When the price gets pushed down it gets more attractive to purchase.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:20 | 4328408 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I look forward to your comments as to when.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:25 | 4328420 fuu
fuu's picture

Not sure what you mean.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:03 | 4328715 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

picking bottoms ain't easy either. to make you need to both...not just buy low sell high...but sell low. So sure...end of the world in 2008/9 "start buying"...there was only one crazy man who stepped into that breach and that was Uncle Warren. "The usual chatter was the usual chatter." As it turned he's now become the richest man in the world. He's no dummie...he took a one percent stake in XOM...not a Coke like position. He might build it to that...but you'd need real management in there before he'd do that. Don't even get me started on GE which he has a massive stake in.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:15 | 4329509 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture



Uncle Warren is NOT the "richest man in the world"

There are at least 4 people wealthier than him.

Look it up.


Tue, 01/14/2014 - 06:46 | 4330100 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

There is no one shot and done.

you musn't watch the overnight futures of gold and silver?  Believe me they will start to "jawbone", very soon, how there is so much oil that we are lucky the oil companies can still be in business and make money!!  

Wake up, just a game.  It's gonna be all good right up to the point - it isn't.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:52 | 4328395 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture


(and i'm being totally serious when i say this. they unload the taxpayer's position in GM this past month. excellent work.)

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:21 | 4329976 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Good clue for you, eh?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:03 | 4328947 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Teach your BROTHERS & SISTERS the nature of 'ACTION' (behavior) and this system will COLLAPSE imminently.......Greed and Fear will be CONSUMED in the beauty of 'TRUTH'....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:02 | 4328948 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Teach your BROTHERS & SISTERS the nature of 'ACTION' (behavior) and this system will COLLAPSE imminently.......Greed and Fear will be CONSUMED in the beauty of 'TRUTH'....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 22:45 | 4329379 therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

95% of all loans are either vehicles or student debt.  GM can't make a buck somewhere in there?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:07 | 4328355 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

needs to fall around 50% more

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:55 | 4328686 teolawki
teolawki's picture

So you're looking for a soft landing?

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 01:12 | 4329793 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Seriously disturbing avaatar....fight club or otherwise...


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:09 | 4328359 halfawake
halfawake's picture

rather see an analog of zimbabwe or weimar.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:20 | 4328409 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Won't happen this time. It's all in or die. The point is, when trust in markets, i mean the fake psychology that drives paper promises, vanishes, where are the currencies going to end up. Nowhere. Because it's too late by that time to get your paper in physical assets. Managed money will go all the way, until people withdraw their money. For now, managed money goes in, look at that guy Hugh Hendry, who got his throat cut by his contributors to "follow the money". All in. Just a few weeks ago. When the all out button is pushed, the lights will go out also.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:26 | 4328424 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Anyone seen Hugh Hendry?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:31 | 4328444 Spungo
Spungo's picture

IAMGOLD up a little more than 9% in one day. I think this is it. We've already seen the bottom of gold and now we're on the ride back up. It's worth mentioning that the 2008-2009 crash had bonds and gold bottom at the same time then the stock market bottomed a few months later. Bond yields recently peaked in December and are in decline. This is almost an exact replay of last time. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:07 | 4328546 Lore
Lore's picture

Chart readers wanted a gold close >$1250.  They got their wish.

Anybody expect a JPM smash in the morning?  I do.  I do.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 16:03 | 4331448 Lore
Lore's picture


P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Ends Weaker on Technical Pullback Following Recent Gains (Jim Wykoff, Kitco, 14-Jan)

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:41 | 4328470 Know shit
Know shit's picture

January 19th, so consider this just to be an small appetizer for what is comming in 2014 :)

Btw are you as hungry as I'm ?

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 17:51 | 4328499 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Scratching for any yield at all has caused most 'investors' to leverage up to ridiculous levels where it ony takes a 2% or 3% dip to wipe them out completely.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:00 | 4328526 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Bullish !

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:02 | 4328528 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

this is just a small pullback before we push past 1850 to close the year over 2000.


just buy more e-minis you'll be aight; the FEDs got our back.    

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:08 | 4328958 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Just another PINKO COMMIE talking his 'book'. See him for what he is (A conformist who has no idea what 'TRUTH' is). If you support or worship at the feet of the FED you are doomed to an ETERNITY of damnation....

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 23:38 | 4329602 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

My position hopes that tomorrow the talking heads on CNBC are explaining to the masses what locked down limit means and exactly how the circut breakers are triggered....  I'm just saying this doesn't feel like the top of this cycle.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:15 | 4328570 chump666
chump666's picture

Great anaylsis ZH

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:17 | 4328575 uhlmant
uhlmant's picture

Its only a 21% drop to about 12750 though...Percentage wise the 1928-1930 drop was 50%.  We need that chart to extend down to 8,100. 

If plotted on the same scale, the 1928-1930 peak was a gain of about 82%.  Current DOW increase only 25%.  If plotted on same scale, implies, current DOW at 23k before crashing.  Such is the problem plotting similar looking data on different can almost always make something look significant.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 21:56 | 4329245 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the one in 1998 was spectacular...and the market would up finishing WAY up that year.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:19 | 4328581 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They weren't as high tech with their FRAUD back then. Today the FED's computers can make the market go up or down in 1/4 point increments or have it stand still. Big difference in how the markets worked back then compared to how they work now.

Nice coincidence though.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:23 | 4328597 realitybiter
realitybiter's picture




13th day of the 13th month of last year..

Justa sayin'



Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:38 | 4328616 chump666
chump666's picture

Also should be noted is the neg rate on the 1 month T bill -0025%.  For everyone who loves, yes Hendry. the idea that the is an infinite amount of cash to collateral that the Fed can achieve - therefor stocks buying will always have liquidity - you are off your brain.  The Fed distortion of interest rate and cash/collateral markets is started to take shape - big-time.  In other words if collateral runs dry and we have panic selling on stocks, a ton of cash will flow into USDs (Faber could be right) and/or the long Tbills.  Sending rates to the moon, squeezing liquidity out of the market.  Flow on effect will slam the EUR and ECB.

Nice start to 2014.

2011 Collateral squeeze re: 1month tbill goes negative


Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:39 | 4328635 magne13
magne13's picture

Chart set up looks good, bonds have sniffed this earlier and only today do equities catch on.  I am not a top picker, but I would also know better than to buy this with both fixed income and equity charts the way they are not to mention bulls all bullied up.  Anyway I will gladly wait and sell below 1800 than pick a top here, but finger is lightly on the trigger and the hammer is cocked.

Tue, 01/14/2014 - 03:25 | 4329988 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You're not a top picker but you'll gladly sell below 1800; at which point, you will be a top picker. like most people you don't even know what you are, much less what to do wtih a market.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 18:50 | 4328669 linrom
linrom's picture

LOL. Wake me up when DOW is Down > 4.52%.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:03 | 4328716 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

"The whole point is just to enjoy yourself."

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:16 | 4328746 spinone
spinone's picture

its down 178.  Yawn.  Wake me when its down 660. 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:19 | 4328758 whoknoz
whoknoz's picture

stackers unite: we likey that spikey...

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:37 | 4328831 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Have we all forgotten that the debt ceiling fiasco will rear itself in February?  (I think the 7th). Back in November, before the cross party 2yr budget deal, I thought we'd see a red December, certainly January, but obviously it didn't happen. I got December's rise completely wrong. I reckon this might be the what I was expecting - a setup for the debt ceiling debate - the red storm to justify more debt 'to save the markets'. So yes, I wouldn't BTFD if I were still playing the rigged casino (I'm not). 

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:42 | 4328849 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

I guess I will just keep pointing this out until the author here understands finally their errors.  This is wrong:

Is it any wonder there are less BFTATH-ers left?

this is right

Is it any wonder there are fewer BFTATH-ers left?


BTFATH-ers is something that can be counted individually, so the word fewer is correct.  Only if it were an indisthinguishable mass like gasoline or piss or HFT cancelled quotes in the absence of Nanex would the word less be appropriate.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 19:54 | 4328914 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Come on, it's totally different this time.  Really, it is.  It's totally completely different.  Totally.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:13 | 4328971 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

To the FAZmobile!

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:25 | 4329001 walküre
walküre's picture

The script (trend) will change when TPTB allow it to happen. They're in control now as always. So, they raided the treasury over the past 5 years and have the Fed filled up to the gilts with paper. They want to unwind some of that and need the panic to take the paper off them. Remember, the Fed holds the paper and the Fed owns this concept of a nation. Where I come from, whoever holds the title or deed holds the cards and calls the shots. Hopefully that's just a figure of speech.

If it crashes again, it is by design and their script calls for it. As much as I like to profit from paper games, let's be realistic. What good did the profits do in the past when TPTB are calling in their deeds and holding everyone including nations by the balls.

There is war brewing and even if you or I profit here, the dream is short lived. We need to make moves to kill the beast that controls us and that's all there is to it. Profits are for pussies. The real legacy is never measured in how much gold anyone accumulated or paper wealth they were holding but how much control and power they could muster.

A total revamp or resets is long overdue and the control from TPTB needs to be stripped like yesterday. We're due for a new scipt alltogether, a script where the old forces aren't in control anylonger.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:39 | 4329045 seek
seek's picture

Negatve yields, gold spiking. Someone knows something and it's not good news. Coming immediately prior to earnings season is all the more reason to think there's a bombshell or two about to be dropped.

Mon, 01/13/2014 - 20:59 | 4329093 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

$2.13 billion ipo's thurs/fri. Watch for headfakes. They squeeze equity bears and sell treasuries to fund ipo's?

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