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What Comes Next: A Refreshing Dose Of Very Surprising Truthyness From Deutsche Bank
One would never expect the following dose of unstatus quo-like truthyness to come from Europe's mega bank (with a few tens of trillions of derivatives on its books). Yet, that's exactly the source, courtesy of its best strategist, Jim Reid.
It’s not a market that rewards caution at the moment. The consensus view has not been an issue so far but will become more of one if an event arises that forces a few of these investors to turn. At this point there will be very limited liquidity and potentially very gappy markets. However for now the consensus positioning and their general desire to keep adding is helping credit. Our view continues to be positive on the asset class but mostly on the basis that central banks won't be able to withdraw stimulus very easily in 2014. Indeed the ECB and BoJ may be increasing it while the Fed may find it more difficult than most think to get from the $75bn/month now to zero. However as we've said a couple of times if we're wrong on central banks we may get bailed out by healthier macro conditions which also help spreads tighten. So in these artificial markets the percentages are skewed towards the bulls for now.
In our outlook we did think that setbacks might happen earlier in the year rather than later as markets interpreted pockets of strong data as a reason to doubt central banks liquidity. As the year progresses though, we think investors (and central bankers themselves) will be resigned to appreciate that markets are still vulnerable without them. The era of financial repression is in the early stages still not the late stages. Markets will need help funding at low yields for many years to come.
Yes they will...
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...When will College Bubble Student Loan Gen Y / X "Lifers" finally stand up and scream, "We aren't going to take this anymore"?
"...in these artificial markets the percentages are skewed towards the bulls for now." - Deutsche Bank
To date, this may well rank as the understatement of the year.
(but there are still 50 weeks to go)
100% BULLISH!
"for now"
OT - I'll pull up the data when able to compile it; Pension funds worth 16 trillion USD sold off equity holdings & rotated into bonds at the largest pace in Q3 '13 since 2008.
Me thinks shit like this doesn't happen in centrally planned USSA "economy" but for tips given at highest levels.
Is this it ?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-13/bonds-captivate-16-trillion-of-pensions-seen-unloading-equities.html
Yep. I should have more accurately stated that bonds captured 16 trillion in pension money, which is even more astounding, but the rate of rotation part (greatest from equities to bonds since crisis of 2008) was accurate.
Bonds captivate $16 trillion of pensions
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-13/bonds-captivate-16-trillion-of-...
"Risk Off
As companies close those gaps, more of their plans are buying bonds, which allows them to match liabilities and eliminate the risk of potential deficits.
“They’re taking more equity risk off the table” with fixed-income securities as their funding status improves, Zorast Wadia, an analyst at Milliman, said in a telephone interview. “Pension plans don’t want to give back the gains that essentially took over five years to accumulate.”
Public and private pension funds in the U.S. added $117 billion of debt securities in the three months ended in September on an annualized basis and sold $135 billion of equities, according to Fed data released on Dec. 9.
The disparity was the greatest since 2008 when comparing third-quarter data on an annual basis."
Thnx, TIS and Rainman.
"Me thinks shit like this doesn't happen in centrally planned USSA "economy" but for tips given at highest levels."
interesting observation .... shades of good old "committe that saved the world" member former TreasurySec'y Rbt Rubin who essentially winked & nodded to the world to buy Treasuries as he would make sure & knew Treasury rates were going to fall (informally assuring foreign investors they would get at least a 'double' ...maybe a triple ala interest rates, principal gain & dollar positive).
Why? there is no way in hell the Federal Reserve, especially the NYFed is going to let the 'market' set Treasury interest rates in this environment. So a new 'rig' will come into play, the 'managing' of the de-taper process and end of ZIRP.
How do you do this> Well, Blackrock is an advisor to the Fed ...... and they will be able to 'see' coming headfakes or policy moves in reaction to whatever 'real' economic news they want Bluesberg/Hislenrath/Krugman to ever talk about. Screw the Japanese, PRChina, Saudis and Euros as they 'have' to buy Treasuries for so many assorted trade/currency-related reasons.
Managing the skew to the continued profit of the US financial services complex
The complimentary "Weird Shit On Like Donkey Kong" thread:
4-Week Bill Prices At 0.000%, Bid To Cover Soars To Highest Since 2011
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-14/4-week-bills-prices-0000-bid-co...
Yeh Rubin is smart n savvy. Francis Sawyer spoke of him.
..the bulls for now?
No one is bullish in the traditional sense of the word. They are forced into the position even though every ounce of their being screams ...nooooooo... be bearish. Printing forces actions but when the law of unintended consequences kicks in it will wipe out trillions.
"as we've said a couple of times if we're wrong on central banks we may get bailed out by healthier macro conditions"
"as we've said a couple of times if we're wrong on central banks we WILL get bailed out by central banks"
Fixed if for ya.
Who forced them to take those loans?
This is a trick question right? The answer is Owebomber...right?
Y3: The Gen Y / X only know how to sit quietly and occupy to protest being the sheeple they are.
Not until the main stream media re-adjusts it's vocal chords..... "The Student Loan Crisis" wont be an issue to anyone who reads healines until the TPTB- decide it is an issue. For now the only words being screamed, are those of an illusionary recovery. The bigger the lie, the more believable and any talk of loans crisis isolates the lie, which makes the sub human mind more capable of deciphering the magik of the words.
Keep on licking the ball sack of the matrixical infrastruture-for your two cents worth of salt.
As my favorite Asian Robot like Chef tells me. I quote: I work harrrd, I work all day- all night". You Ameircans lazy.
Markets will need help funding at low yields for many years to come.
how very capitalist.....
the Fed may find it more difficult than most think to get from the $75bn/month now to zero.
Simple truths are often the best ones.
The Fed takes the money and buys up all those "worthless" mortgage backed securities. Buy up enough of them to put the mortgages back together and they end up owning America... pretty much for free.
So why would they want to stop the worlds greatest land grab ever?
Markets need ZERO help. The man on the street needs help, for all the theft that has gone on by these fucking crooks
Three Shell Game - Learn This Easy Con Artist Game Magic Trick
Truthyness from Deutscheness
"A trick is something a whore does for money...or cocaine."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1WSH0VzoaM
+1 For the Arrested Development reference. Great freaking show.
What's sad is that the excutives in the show serve as a pretty good example of how american businesses are run today.
It almost seems like the world's stock markets have taken on a 'victim' mentality. We need so much because we have been so abused. No surprise then that so called 'investors' would enable that victim mentality if it benefits them. Every co-dependent relationship initially starts out a win-win situation until the dependencies begin to really weigh upon each other.
Then it quickly turns into dog eat dog.
That is how junkies act when you cut back or off the junk they are addicted to.
their conclusion is still what you would expect...status quo.
Keep stacking gold silver and crypto until you can't, bitchez!
Wait, stocks don't have a guaranteed return?
Lululemon shares are the new "Liberty Bonds."
Anything is possible in the world of illoooozyun!
of course the nasdaq has recovered more than half of its losses from yesterday.
should recover all and then some by days end.
no criminal activity going on here.
another 10b taper end of jan. that i expect. market will correct. and that will be 25% taper in q1. than a cuple of months (2 or 3) no policy change. and then the taper or untaper.
I'm not sure if the author has understood the concept of truthiness (the truth you want to hear, the one that - without factual corroboration - you feel is right). perhaps it's spelled in the header as truthyness for this reason?
anyway, thanks to Colbert for this valuable addition to the vocabulary
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edit: silly me, being ZH I forgot to look it up the Urban Dictionary http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=truthyness
which leaves me even more confused: "When you are meaning to tell the truth but are actually lying." ? How is this to be understood? as a unintended?
Why did Jacob Henry Schiff come to the United States?
He and his cohorts designed the takeover of America’s financial system for their own benefit; his sole purpose was getting control of the United States monetary system.
And, now, after this grand theft of 100 years, we spend our days listening to the back and forth- bulls versus bears, inflation versus deflation versus stagflation, printing versus taper – the endless “analysis” of a financial system that has plunged ur country into financial ruin. And make no mistake, in this latest Deutsche Bank “revelation,” you can still hear the voice of Jacob Schiff.
Theft: Dishonesty, appropriating property, belonging to another, with the intent of permanently depriving the other of it. In short, QE is theft.
And the bankers, these financial wizards of theft upon whose daily words we hang, have many fellow travelers (read Google).
“I hate you, Google”
January 13, 2014
Google stole 5,000,000 books. Amount of royalties they’ve paid to me and the authors totals: $0.00. Attention terror folk: blow up Google and I’ll forget all about 9/11. -- Ted Rall:
Ted Rall is a syndicated cartoonist and columnist for Universal Press Syndicate. Author of 17 books, a Pulitzer Prize finalist and twice the winner of the RFK Journalism Award, Rall's cartoons and columns appear in The Los Angeles Times, MAD Magazine, Medium.com and numerous other online and print publications. His next book is "After We Kill You, We Will Welcome You As Honored Guests: Unembedded in Afghanistan" (Hill & Wang, March 25, 2014).
As TwoShortPlanks wrote on ZH in 2010:
It won't be a currency that falls, it will be Trust in the population which holds lifestyle above all else, and/or a population which has lost control of an elite few (the latter can be rectified through revolutionary means, the former is a death sentence).