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Group-Think Visualized

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment; aside to note that it would appear (based on BlackRock's survey) that there is only one trade the sell-side wants you in...

 

 

h/t @GavynNolan

 

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Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:35 | 4333988 Rainman
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but...but...we know what happens when everybody is herding to one side of the boat < never mind >

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:38 | 4333994 InjectTheVenom
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what happens ?    baaahhhh - baahhhhh - baaaahhhhhh - baaahhh

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:46 | 4334010 Pladizow
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Well, they're all half right!

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:09 | 4334038 hedgeless_horseman
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So far this year, this is my favorite ZH graphic.  Great find...thanks, Gavyn!

Right this way folks. 
No pushing, please. 
There are plenty of stocks for everyone.

That is right...sell us those bonds.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:56 | 4334259 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

I think of the Life of Brian here...

"You are all individuals."

In unison, "Yes, we are all individuals."

Then someone like me says, "I'm not." Fuck 'em all. I'll hold out. Sure, I'm missing out on making some fiats, but I've got some tangible shit that is much more useful to me. 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:28 | 4334164 atomp
atomp's picture

Those tails are creeping me out... Son of a bitch, I didn't know sheep had tails! http://www.sheep101.info/tails.html

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:46 | 4334434 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

This notion of seeing and treating people like sheep goes WAY back.

"Simon, you are (now) Petrus*.  The Rock upon which I shall build my Church... They are my flock, and I their Shepherd."

   * Latin for Stone or Rock.  The French name 'Pierre' (Peter) also means Stone or Rock.

But, given the timeless stupidity of the masses (then and now), it is a fitting and deserving description.  What does not make sense is that a more evolved being would risk or lay down their life for a far less evolved being like a sheep -- who are dumber than any mammal I can think of.  Only turkeys are dumber. 

And I'd hate to brake it to you, but if one of my kids were foolish enough to risk/waste his life for one of the farm animals, I have to tell you that it would not stop me from treating them as farm animals.  They'd still get milked, sheared or fleeced and butchered. 

Also, you can be pretty sure how the neighbors would regard the farmer who decided to turn his farm animals into personal pets, after one of his kids died in trying to save them from thieves:  "Poor old man, he really lost it after his kid Yeshua lost his life.  In remembrance of him, he quit farming and is now treating all the animals as pets".

Newsflash:  You've been DUPED by Shamans.  There is NO SUBSTITUTION of personnel for offenses or crimes committed.  If you commit a felony, YOU go to jail -- not some unrelated and innocent 3rd party, and certainly not the President's kid.  If you were to commit some offense ('sin') against a "deity"... guess what, YOU suffer the consequences, and not some lowly animal.  Only a human who's dumber than the one who committed the offense would believe that claptrap.  And certainly no 'deity' (i.e. Starship Captain) would fall for that bullshit story.

But, hey, there's a sucker born every day.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:37 | 4333990 samcontrol
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the boat goes faster ?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:00 | 4334041 Stuck on Zero
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All the gold rolls off the side and sinks to the bottom.

 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:37 | 4333992 Boris Alatovkrap
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Maybe member of bankster class is meet together in smoke fill room and decide this thing together?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:22 | 4334026 Dr. Engali
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They don't need to meet in a smoke filled room. They have been robbing us blind right out in the open......Hold on Boris  I'll have to finish this conversation later after I update my Farcebook page and answer this text.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:18 | 4334195 Excursionist
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I'll go against the grain on this one...

Imagine you're a sell-side analyst taking turns pimping your institution's 'platform capabilities' and publishing research opining on whatever it is you cover.  It's as blue collar of a job as you can have in a technically white collar profession.  It's just a gig.

Your expectations have been set so that a nice house in the burbs or apartment on the Upper [West / East] side or, if you see yourself as not having 'sold out', SoHo / TriBeCa / Chelsea is a must, kid(s) must attend private school, etc., etc.  Your monthly nut has grown to the point that you rely on your year-end bonus, and you're dead in the water without said bonus.

Now.  You have to pontificate on the direction of some asset's future price in a manufactured market like, say, equities.  Will you really put your ass in a sling by recommending something contrary to the direction being manufactured?

I can't feel any ill will towards such analysts - only sorry for them.  Lest ye rail against how analysts can influence others, I say those 'others' should have their money taken for being stupid enough to act on the publications.  Money being lost is a terrific instructor.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:38 | 4333998 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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Without your income they only have one source of dry powder and if that powder gets tapered...

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:47 | 4333999 Cognitive Dissonance
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Running with the herd is the only way to see the world through beer goggles.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:43 | 4334007 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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Little email I received this morning this group-think which can be described in terms of Morgan's Canon and this analogy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgan%27s_Canon

In no case is an animal activity to be interpreted in terms of higher psychological processes if it can be fairly interpreted in terms of processes which stand lower in the scale of psychological evolution and development.

In other words, Morgan believed that anthropomorphic approaches to animal behavior were fallacious, and that people should only consider behaviour as, for example, rational, purposive or affectionate, if there is no other explanation in terms of the behaviours of more primitive life-forms to which we do not attribute those faculties.

...

With this in mind we can explain the FED's actions with QE in relation to Communism/Socialism because the method is exactly the same.

There was a chemistry professor in a large college who had some exchange students in the class. One day while the class was in the lab, the professor noticed one young man, an exchange student who kept rubbing his back and stretching as if his back hurt.

The professor asked the young man what was the matter. The student told him he had a bullet lodged in his back. He had been shot while fighting communists in his native country who were trying to over throw his country's government and install a new communist regime. In the midst of his story, he looked at the professor and asked a strange question. He asked: "Do you know how to catch wild pigs?" The professor thought it was a joke and asked for the punch line.The young man said that it was no joke. "You catch wild pigs by finding a suitable place in the woods and putting corn on the ground. The pigs find it and begin to come every day to eat the free corn. "When they are used to coming every day, you put a fence down one side of the place where they are used to coming. When they get used to the fence, they begin to eat the corn again and you put up another side of the fence. "They get used to that and start to eat again. You continue until you have all four sides of the fence up with a gate in the last side."The pigs, which are used to the free corn, start to come through the gate to eat that free corn again. You then slam the gate on them and catch the whole herd. Suddenly the wild pigs have lost their freedom. They run around and around inside the fence, but they are caught. Soon they go back to eating the free corn. They are so used to it that they have forgotten how to forage in the woods for themselves, so they accept their captivity." The young man then told the professor that is exactly what he sees happening in America .

The government keeps pushing us toward Communism/Socialism and keeps spreading the free corn out in the form of programs such as supplemental income, tax credit for unearned income, tax exemptions, tobacco subsidies, dairy subsidies, payments not to plant crops (CRP), welfare, medicine, drugs, etc., while we continually lose our freedoms, just a little at a time. One should always remember two truths:

There is no such thing as a free lunch, and you can never hire someone to provide a service for you cheaper than you can do it yourself. If you see that all of this wonderful government "help" is a problem confronting the future of democracy in America , you might want to send this on to your friends.

If you think the free ride is essential to your way of life, then you will probably delete this email. BUT, God help us all when the gate slams shut!

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:07 | 4334066 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

A great lesson about the pigs.  I'm going to go have myself some bacon that I bought with foodstamps.

 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:06 | 4334090 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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The question is has the cage been closed and we have the next step when some pigs aka primary dealers decide they are moar equal than others (usually happens when there isn't enough corn to go around for everyone).

So if QE is the corn the cage is America financial system is the hunting grounds, the stock market is the cage and the banks are the pigs. Who is the hog hunter and where do they reside outside the cage? I think we know that answer when you consider the FED is just the corn feeder to corral in the hogs since it is technically within the cage and not the hunter and what you have now is animal farm with some pigs are moar equal than others controlling the corn feeder but not the actual corn.

Critical thinking question if the USD is the corn and the FED is the corn feeder what has to be issued first before the corn is spit out the feeder aka the FED?

Now how did the hunters take control of that?

1. The U.S. has not had a Treasury since 1921 (41 Stat. Ch. 214 pg. 654)

2. The U.S. Treasury is now the IMF. (Presidential Documents Volume 29-No.4 pg.113, 22 U.S.C. 285-288)

3. The IMF is an Agency of the UN. (Black’s Law Dictionary 6th Ed. Pg 816)

And how do they enforce it locally.

4. The IRS is not a U.S. Government Agency. It is an Agency of the IMF (Diversified metal Products v. IRS etal. CV-93-405E-EJE U.S.D.C.D.I., Public Law 94-564, Senate Report 94-1148 pg. 5967, Reorganization Plan No. 26, Public Law 102-391.)

 

As you can see the number 4 is important here because the solution revolves around the number 4.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:35 | 4334393 donsluck
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Forgive my confusion, but if the US no longer has a Treasury, how can it be part of the IMF? If something doesn't exist, how can it exist? Althought the Treasury was eviscerated by the FED, it still exists. So, since points  and 2 contradict each other, the entire excercise is meaningless.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 14:18 | 4334544 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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Think lizard people masquerading as humans or pod people like Invasion of the Body Snatchers.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:42 | 4334423 carbonmutant
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The gate has been closed.

The government is already starting to cull. From keeping Americans unemployed and feeding on food stamps to Obamacare's rationing of healthcare.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 14:17 | 4334537 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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And the solution.

As some of us know there are 4 checks and balances on the federal level concerning laws not 3 as you are led to believe. You have Judicial, Legislative, Executive and the 4th are the Citizens themselves. That 4th check can be enforced through nullification by jury.

The check of nullification is key.

The Constitution is not the Supreme Law of the United States as everyone is led to believe. We are all guilty of believing this but the truth is it is only an organic law and there are 4 of them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organic_law

An organic or fundamental law is a law or system of laws which forms the foundation of a government, corporation or other organization's body of rules. A constitution is a particular form of organic law for a sovereign state.

The United States has 4 of them not 1.

http://uscode.house.gov/browse/frontmatter/organiclaws&edition=prelim

The Declaration of Independence - 1776

The Articles of Confederation - 1777

The Northwest Ordinance - 1787

The Constitution - 1787

They all build on each other and each is limited by the preceding one. With that in mind the key points are this.

1. The Declaration of Independence

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."

People aka citizens check 1

That is the very concept of nullification right there in the idea of the consent of the governed and when and why nullification is necessary when you read through the whole thing.

2. Articles of Confederation

This is the basic glue that Unites the States in the United States of America and defines what commonality they share among each other on top of their existing state government charters and how to assemble to deal with commonality issues. No Federal Government specificed here or created.

States created check 2

3. Northwest Ordinance

Sets the table for temporary governments which is also the limitations concerning the Federal Government.

3. Constitution

Establishes permant Federal Government and the rules all reigned in by the preceeding organic law documents

 

The Federal Government can be nullified by a plurarility of people legally because of the preceedng organic law documents without the destruction of the United States of America. It is all spelled out in the 3 preceeding documents to the Constitution. We can take our country back legally when enough people understand this stop giving consent the arguments for not giving consent and reasons to nullify are also spelled out. This is the dirty secret that is obfiscated and if the south did this instead of leaving the Union they would have probably won the states/federal rights fight and with legal cover for allies to intervene if the Federal Government intervened with force like they did when the south ceded.

 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 14:30 | 4334609 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Nice theory, but enforcement is gonna be a bitch.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 14:34 | 4334627 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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The plurality part is the key because like the legal justification for nullifying the crown and declaring independence, this will most likely need to be secured with blood of Patriots. The founding fathers apparently were a lot more crafty than we realize when you take the 4 as a whole and how they interact with each other. But like anything else in life you got to want it bad enough to make it stick.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 14:40 | 4334650 zhandax
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The odds are shrinking every day.  With 47% waiting for a check from .gov every month, we barely have a majority now.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 15:13 | 4334664 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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Ah but it all comes down to how the plurality is structured do you structure it by a straight up and down vote or plurality of states. The answer is in the most obscure document no one reads out of the 4.

Nullification and consent of the governed is rooted in a more basic idea of Natural Law. There are a lot of different definitions. This is the one I use.

Natural law derives from the nature of man and the world, just as physical law derives from the nature of space, time, and matter.

As a result most people accept natural law as the ultimate basis of all law and ethics. The most recent example of Natural Law would be the Nuremberg trials after WWII.

With that in mind the basic nature of humans is to protect their life and property....... Property can be defined in many ways like your family, country, etc. from harm by outsiders..... And remember humans are nothing more than animals, rational thinking ones when the decide to actually use their brains. Morgan's Canon.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 15:51 | 4334946 lewietheparrot
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Natural law includes humans

It does not exclude all other species

Natural law is what a human infant abides by

Everyone has it

So deeply buried under human conditioning

 

Dewey, thanks for today's work---important to remember

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 16:06 | 4335004 Dewey Cheatum Howe
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Natural law includes humans

It does not exclude all other species

 

The and the world part states the point just in different language. Think in terms of sets and subsets, species are subset of the world which they reside in.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:18 | 4335153 lewietheparrot
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Thanks, again, Dewey,

The universe is not so well organized as humans believe. The human mind may divide to conquer, and organize these divisions, but after forty years of observation of 'all species', they are much more interesting than they have been abstracted by humans.

A simple example is the 'hard working' ants and bees. When you observes these dudes in nature----as they are, not as you believe----they seem so much more like humans: some work, some pretend to work, some just do not give a shit----leafcutter ants and apis melafloris specifically.

Survival, day to day---every day is the only subset that is really accurate---and we really do not know if even this is true.

If you are referring to the 'natural law' that Passio speaks of, then we are not speaking of natural law, but rather, the contrived or imagined natural law of humans. I have no argument for or against this---it just is a very superficial idea that has yet to be proven---a subset of human thinking. Nature is the only true 'natural' and it is not worth discussion---only acceptance---a most difficult thing for the hyperactive human mind.

Still, we are close together and you are working hard in explaining things that no one really wants to understand. My hat is off to you with a 'thank you'; this work is too frustrating for this oldman!  

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 14:31 | 4334616 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Good Point.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:00 | 4334275 lewietheparrot
lewietheparrot's picture

THanks, Dewey!

We forget that as humans, we are also, mammals and 'animals'

We are not so rare in our behavior or special as we think

We behave more like mammals than special beings

thanks again

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:45 | 4334008 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's a good thing Iran is coming on board with the NWO, we were running out of people to BTFD. Hopefully Rodman can work some magic with that crazy fuck in North Korea.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:55 | 4334032 Cognitive Dissonance
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Rodman is the crazy fuck in North Korea.

Oh.......wait, wrong fuck. :)

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:25 | 4334154 frankTHE COIN
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Wow Cog, your on fire today.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:51 | 4334023 geotrader
geotrader's picture

What is Global FI?  Finace?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 11:57 | 4334036 hedgeless_horseman
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Fixed Income---Bonds.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 15:07 | 4334779 geotrader
geotrader's picture

Thank you HH.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:08 | 4334076 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

global "fix is in"

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:10 | 4334085 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

this chart is the same every year

 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:13 | 4334104 Rising Sun
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do the opposite

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:24 | 4334152 Deer Hunter
Deer Hunter's picture

It's cool enough, time to stuff some sausage.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 12:50 | 4334238 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

"Buy now or be priced out forever!"

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:17 | 4334331 Cacete de Ouro
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One sell side analyst tells it like it is:

This stock is a Strong Buy. Hell, we even put it on our Conviction List ...(laughter erupts all over the desk and various stuffed toy muppets get thrown around).

Conviction List (chortles and sniggers erupt), the only conviction we can ever think of might have something to do with the SEC, but don't they watch midget porn all day? (more guffawing and cuddly muppets bring thrown over the partitions)..

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 13:42 | 4334421 djsmps
Wed, 01/15/2014 - 14:09 | 4334513 Kirk2NCC1701
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Applying the label "Groupthink" does not make it 'wrong', anymore than it makes it 'right'.  It merely means what it says:  "That a group of people/participants are in agreement about something".  Big whoop.

The REAL questions we have to ask ourselves are:

  1. What do they know that we don't, and what parachutes might they have that we don't?
  2. You wanna fight The Fed and TPTB?  What happened the last time (2013) in the Gold vs. Equities fight?  Did ZH/Tyler fatten your asset portfolio with the "Gold!" mantra, or did Classical Asset Allocation Principles make you richer?  It was Gold= -30%, and Equities = +30%, as I recall.  You wanna bet against the House/Casino again?
  3. You wanna proceed on "Faith" or on Principle?  Personally I've haven't had much use for "faith" in recent decades, when I gave up childish beliefs, doctrines and outdated worldviews -- be they philosophical/religious, or economic/financial.

Reality is a bitch, I know.  I hate her too.  But not as much as her sly sisters: Hope and Faith.  At least with Reality, I get to screw her more often than she gets to screw me.  Hope and Faith, on the other hand, almost always fail to deliver:  Long on promises, short on deeds. 

Who's your 'bitch', and whose 'bitch' are you?  Think about it.

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