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The Last 2 Times This Happened, The US Was Already In Recession

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the market seems to have rapidly given up worrying about the piss-poor jobs data from last week, the fact of the matter is the longer-term trend of 'employment' in America is anything but questionable. As we pointed out, and was so broadly understood, the number of people in the labor force in American is fading fast. In fact, as the chart below shows, the last 2 times the civilian labor force fell on an annual basis like this, the US economy was already in recession...

 

 

 

(H/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

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Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:13 | 4335457 HedgeAccordingly
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Very large disconnect from wall street and mainstreet in regards to jobs and velocity of money.... Deflation brought on by unemployment really the issue.. As faber mentions - http://hedge.ly/1cldY2g 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:16 | 4335467 Chris Jusset
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The Fed has the US economy so doped-up and medicated that we'll never know when or whether we're in a recession.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:24 | 4335505 TeamDepends
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Can we just put on our big boy pants already and admit we're in a depression?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:34 | 4335527 Cattender
Cattender's picture

no we can't..

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:49 | 4335571 Uber Vandal
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Correct, much like before Depressions, there were Panics, the last one occurring in 1907.

Before Recessions, there were Depressions, the last one ending ca. 1938.

Now, everything is doubleplus good, since the last Recession ended in 2009.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:17 | 4335655 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

All that matters is how much will the bernank (and his other central banking buddies) pump into pomo over the next few days, week, months.

Nothing else matters.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:43 | 4335795 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Don't you mean Mr Yellen? The bernank has fled the scene of the crime.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 20:13 | 4335921 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I think you have a point there.

I need to update the robot doing my comments on ZH.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 07:35 | 4337249 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

now we have "recoveries"

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 23:24 | 4336650 Mikebacker
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Depends where you live? The South Bronx where I live is in a depression and they know it.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 02:00 | 4336987 Kirk2NCC1701
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Since Prozac and other AD meds don't seem to work on the likes of you, it may be time to have your brain's Area 25 electro-stimulated.  Works like a charm. /s

Since 99% of you don't know WTF that is, it may be a good time to put some sweat/click equity into it and look it up.  Never too late to learn new things.  :-)

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 08:40 | 4337314 Not Goldman Sachs
Not Goldman Sachs's picture

I like my subgenual cingulate hypoactivity just fine...can I keep it?

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 09:33 | 4337418 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Obozo said you can keep it...

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 09:24 | 4337352 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

No placing electrodes into my Cerebral Tissue. Not for me. I do not need a dose of encephalitis. Furthermore from what I have read it has no affect on 44% of the victims. 

 

I will take care of any clinical depression with massive doses of Vitamin B-Complex Injections. I like the Niacinamide meteabolizing into Nicotinic Acid, which subsequentially blocks the reuptake of Norepinephrine and Epinephrine. (Noradrenaline and Adrenaline)

 

Perhaps you ought to try that. The clinical results are amazing as that is how the neuroleptics seem to work.

 

It is amazing that most Mental Illnesses are exacerbated by the lack of proper nutrients and Vitamins in one's diet. They result from the affects of malnutrition.

 

The Brain is an organ, just like the many other organs, in the Human Body. When deprived of needed nutrients it becomes stressed and subject to disease. Nobody needs introduce foreign implements into another's brain, and overload it with electrostimulation, in order to alleviate that which can be alleviated through a proper diet and exercise.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:25 | 4335509 knukles
knukles's picture

Just for shits and grins.
Back in the 70's most everybody took the gubamint data releases for reasonable.... estimates of grand scale demographics and activities
By the 80's shit like seasonals (Which for example in neither geometric or algebraic analysis were seasonal, but macro biased) when applied to prices had a downward bias, etc, when to labor participantion etc, upward.
And guys like me were told I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about way back then.  Shit, I ran the numbers with an HP80, FFS!
Or just plain shut the fuck up and do your job
By the early 90's a lotta people were getting down right suspicious and by the late 90's just plain cynical of the bull shit deluxe
Now, we're in a whole 'nother mode, my friends.

The Conspiracy Theory of the 80's that the gubamint fudgeis the numbers is now Conspiracy Fact

Thank you for pointing that out, Knuks
Any time, Knuks

So, the moral of the tale is that we're presented with fabricated propaganda as hard data, that being proven, meaning we're all the way back to the good olde USSR's redacted numbers that nobody believes, meaning nobody anymore has a fucking clue

Daddy, what were them fundamental things you keep talking about?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:12 | 4335630 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

When you talk in a serious fashion, I get a lot more out of your posts.

Thanks.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:30 | 4335724 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

Just for shits and grins I'm giving every poster on this page an arrow up,,,

sometimes someone has to be right about something.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 09:27 | 4337400 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Arrow inflation?

 

Vote me Red Arrows all of the time.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:27 | 4335702 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

All the more reason Orwell dwelled so long on the "memory hole" and Winston's "job."

Lies are part and parcel of power--"If you like your..."

 

"Guillotines cut right through to the truth."

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:58 | 4335851 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

In the Fed's world of extend, pretend and play-play economics, the concept of recession/depression have been left out of the rules - the ' New Normal ' I believe they call it.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 21:49 | 4336274 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Exactly.  I don't know why people still insist on using indicators of old, there is one thing and one thing only that matters; Are governments still frantically printing massive amounts of money to hold together the ponzi?  If yes; buy e-minis, we are going higher. 

 

 

 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:17 | 4335466 Rainman
Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:22 | 4335495 Rainman
Rainman's picture

even machines take a nap once in a while

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:54 | 4335526 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Don't be getting all up in my grill. I'm just messing with you man. ;->

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:27 | 4335708 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I hate that fucking cunt disorderment.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:16 | 4335470 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Recession huh? So we've upgraded from the depression. Good, I feel better already.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:20 | 4335485 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

we've got pills against depressions now...

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:16 | 4335472 order66
order66's picture

This type of shit will continue until there is a second Revolution in this country. It will eventually be dangerous to be rich.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:25 | 4335510 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Be careful what you wish for.  Revolutions without a clear understanding of what the problems are and a clear and well understood set of goals can yield very bad results.  Furthermore, do you know where your last meal was produced?  If you do not, then revolution should scare the hell out of you, because most of the food produced and consumed in this country depends, in one way or another, government largess, dictates, infrastructure, and the petrodollar. 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:56 | 4335588 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Revolutions without a clear understanding of what the problems are"

 I fear the next revolution in the USA will be more like one of these:   Russian Revolution, French Revolution (Reign of Terror), Cambodian revolution...

Rarely do revolutions promote liberty. Most result in totaliarian states.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:19 | 4335666 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

A revolution of a libertarian and anarchistic majority would renew America.

A revolution of the socialist and fascist majority we currently have would probably result in a military dictatorship.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 20:15 | 4335932 new game
new game's picture

and that is why we are doing near zero for fear of above outcome. fucked or really fucked.

but, we know this gets to a breaking point. dollar collapse, war. combo petrodollar collapse/war.

i think we are along for the ride.  i always said to my childern, just hope a ww doesn't happen in your life time...

the bastards...

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 20:44 | 4336047 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

If you wish to partake in a revolutionary act in this age, rip out your lawn and start growing food where it once was.  Invite your neighbors to eat what you've grown and convince them that it is better.  You need not even mention that you are doing it because you fear what the future has in store.  Start rekindling the spark of self sufficiency in your neighborhood.  Reduce the number of dollars that you put towards state sanctioned agricultural conglomerates, and indirectly, support for the state.  One simple act at a time, start removing the chains from yourself and showing your neighbors how to do the same. It takes time, but the sooner you start, the better off you are. 

 

I do not wish to see people being killed, people suffering and starving as the result of a civil war, but I think that we will see one regardless of my wishes.  Should I be wrong, and you've gained some degree of self sufficiency along with eating what is likely more healthy, is that so bad?  Should I be right, and civil war does break out, you will be able to do what is required with at least the comfort of knowing that you might just be able to make it through the thing without starving to death. 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 22:23 | 4336406 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

We bought a house with an apple orchard, 16 trees producing way too many fucking apples for my family. So, we invited several families to come get all they needed. We had already canned applesauce and made plenty of cider. A couple of families took us up on it.

The big community garden goes in this spring. We've got chickens, a couple cows, and some goats. And we've got some great neighbors (as well as some that won't make it). 

More people need to leave the city and head out like we have. You'll be glad you did. We are.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 08:29 | 4337306 Not Goldman Sachs
Not Goldman Sachs's picture

No,please, stay in the city if you are already there. Leave the countryside to me.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 14:00 | 4338338 AuEagleNest
AuEagleNest's picture

Think about adding a couple of bee hives and some heavy-production fruit (blackberries, rasberries, strawberries) and you'll also have an endless supply of great homebrew honey wines.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 21:27 | 4336196 newprepper
newprepper's picture

It could go either way. The wagon pullers will eventually collapse because of the wagon riders heavy load. The pullers are also starved of resources so they will become weaker . It's not a question of whether but when at this point.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 23:24 | 4336643 Dr. Destructo
Dr. Destructo's picture

Nah. Any rebellion to happen on U.S. soil will be crushed under the wheels of the MRAPS, while the majority get distracted by the media that's telling them that it's all China's fault. They get pissed that China took their jobs without realizing that it was really Wall Street that sent the jobs to China and so relations between China and America get strained to the point where China sells off it's 1 trillion dollar in debt and so you get into an east vs. west thing. Nations in the E.U. go where the GOLD does so they'll hem and haw with the U.S. while blowing Chinese businessmen behind the curtains. The U.S. collapses and nations that lost a shitload of money come here to collect, thus integrating us into a global system where we all get fucked collectively.

Anyone wanna take a hit of what I'm smoking?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:33 | 4335514 10mm
10mm's picture

Second revolution should be commencing as we speak. The longer the wait, the harder it will be. The 3%ers didn't have time to wait.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:18 | 4335478 Bunga Bunga
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Get over it, economic indicators are completely irrelevant in central planning.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:19 | 4335481 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

if only Obama could rule the country by veto and put the entire congress on the bench...
A tirrant... like hitler without the killing...

yeah...

give it 6 more months and American democracy will look totally different.

The guy is becomming paranoid and dangerous.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:23 | 4335501 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

i suppose you think things would be different if the moonbat mormon had been elected?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:29 | 4335516 knukles
knukles's picture

Sarah Palin woulda at least been easy on the eyes.

Romney!?!?!?!
Jesus H Fucking Christ!  The idiots ran a fucking investment banker/priave equity/takeover artist/etc., for president!
Ever wonder why he lost?
How fucking out of touch with reality was that nomination?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:48 | 4335568 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You're assuming they wanted to win. The repukes are committed to lose as many elections as it takes to rid themselves of the pesky tea party.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:29 | 4335718 666
666's picture

I wonder if they deliberately wanted to lose so they wouldn't get the blame for the economy tanking under whoever was elected President. Or were they incredibly stoopid?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:05 | 4335606 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

I think you've got it ! The rain in Spain does'nt matter, nor does the President. It's the financial system , bureaucracy and vested interests that really call the shots. On the fringes Presidents can only play with legacies, patronage and pet projects like Obamacare which really has not changed the rising cost of healthcare or how it is administered in the private and public sector. Same with Volker rule which is now meaningless or military budget run by military industrial complex. Real change comes from defeat in war , revolution or collapsing economies----the latter is most probable considering unsustainable deficits. Second choice is revolution based on unemployment trends and income disparity. Your choice, same price!

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 20:19 | 4335944 new game
new game's picture

nice post/summation- plus 1

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:38 | 4335535 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The guy is becoming paranoid and dangerous.

Some of us warned everyone of this maniacal behavior long before a second term was granted. The dangerous and not funny thing is that most of these people would vote for this idiot again if given the opportunity.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:59 | 4335595 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"The guy is becomming paranoid and dangerous."

Pardon my intrusion, but I think you meant  to say "The guy is paranoid and very dangerous"

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:40 | 4335775 W74
W74's picture

Obama has always had what I call a "perpetual victim" mentality.  And just like animals backed into a corner it becomes all the more fierce when put under scrutiny or the public lime light.

But it's not just Obama, it's becoming quite pervasive throughout the country.  Worse is these folks are able to make you look like an asshole for criticizing their poor choices.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:22 | 4335497 10mm
10mm's picture

There's that "R" word again. Thrown around with reckless abandon.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:23 | 4335500 rum_runner
rum_runner's picture

Yeah well this time IS different.  People don't matter.  Robots run factories and will soon make your burger.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:29 | 4335515 starman
starman's picture

2014 will be the mother of all lay offs since 09!
Hedge accordingly!

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:36 | 4335532 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

My Marine Corp Flight Instructor told me:

"Those striped things above your head are your ejection handles. If this thing begins to fall apart, don't wait for me just pull the handles all the way down, and don't worry, I'll be along shortly".

Now, I better make sure my straps are tight so I don't break my back.....

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:44 | 4335554 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I was told by a marine colonel, a warthog (thunderbolt) pilot, that marines are never comfortable with any piece of equipment that isn't leaking both oil and transmission fluid. 

Always admired that fool.  Thanks for the memories..

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 20:22 | 4335956 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

A10 is a hell of an airplane. They could survive a lotta sh!t. Used to love that whine as they came over the trees... Of course, always better when they're ours...

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 20:59 | 4336099 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

Warthogs are pure Air Force. Marines don't get to drive them unless they are on a temporary exchange duty with the USAF. I always thought it ought to be driven out of jungles and occasionally off of flight decks though (hey, if you can drive a F4 off of a flight deck why not a A 10 ?). Something about a gatling gun throwing uranium based artilery rounds just sounds like fun. 

I never flew a new airplane with a pretty paintjob and no streaks on the airframe. I heard about one once though....

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 21:00 | 4336100 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

Warthogs are pure Air Force. Marines don't get to drive them unless they are on a temporary exchange duty with the USAF. I always thought it ought to be driven out of jungles and occasionally off of flight decks though (hey, if you can drive a F4 off of a flight deck why not a A 10 ?). Something about a gatling gun throwing uranium based artilery rounds just sounds like fun. 

I never flew a new airplane with a pretty paintjob and no streaks on the airframe. I heard about one once though....

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:37 | 4335538 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

So , we accept NAFTA as a end all be all, ship our manufacturing to the orient and let the politicians get their recent MILLIONAIRE status and all is well with the AMERIKANS. I am so sick of most Amerikans being such FUCKING SHEEP.   Let them have their unemployment checks and nanny state mentality.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:52 | 4335577 GCT
GCT's picture

Nihilist all I can state is hedge accordingly.  Nothing is going to happen anytime soon. 

All the doom and gloom is not going to happen until entitlement keeping the sheeple from rioting is lowered or worse fails.  Getting sheeple to suck on the gov't teat keeps them docile as they do not want to be cutoff from the from the government's version of milk and honey.  A major disruption in this system and all the glove will indee finally come off.

I suspect we will be in a major war or worse TPTB will decide it is time to cull the herds big time with some nukes.  TSHF afterwards ill be real ugly and only the strong will survive then.  Hope you have some like minded friends and can help you defend what you prepared for.  Those in large metropolitan areas are basically screwed.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:25 | 4335693 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

Sounds exciting, but I suspect that we will experience a decline more along the British model: a gradual increase in general shoddiness, matched by a corresponding decline in expectations, with plenty of alchohol to ease the boredom.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 18:53 | 4335582 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

This time is different.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:11 | 4335626 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Good thing recessions (and market corrections) are not allowed anymore.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 22:56 | 4336548 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Is there a new GS swirl-o-gram ?   It might suck us all into some other mentality.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:24 | 4335691 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   What's this recession you speak of, as I gaze across my pasture filled with skittle shitting unicorns?

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 19:35 | 4335738 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I suspect when we finally have drones in every state whoever is president at the time will echo bush's infamous saying "bring it on".

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 20:39 | 4336023 Jlasoon
Jlasoon's picture

I suspected things were getting worst. My scientific calculations correspond accordingly. Yesterday I saw allot more dumpster divers around my apartment complex than usual. Not a pretty sight.

I mean we can joke and laugh at our current predicament in this country, but reality is allot of people are suffering at the hands of some pretty fucked up people. May you all rot in hell for eternity for what you're doing to the average individual. 

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 23:50 | 4336722 Dr. Destructo
Dr. Destructo's picture

Lets see; I saw the following this week:

  • A former entrepreneur /business owner turned bug exterminator.
  • Ex-sailor who did his 20+ years bagging groceries despite having a retirement pension.
  • Another restaurant closing, and the owner who's filling out resumes and hoping to land a job.

The jobs you'd normally see kids doing are being done by people who should be retiring. It is definitely NOT an easy sight to look at, and evertime I do I always think to myself that 2013 will be easy street compared to 2014-15. You can't fix decades upon decades of shitty economic intervention and manipulation in a few  years. We are truly fucked.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 21:21 | 4336177 newprepper
newprepper's picture

In three years Obama will declare victory.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 21:26 | 4336193 ms8172
ms8172's picture

I have been following the market for years and have never witnessed anything like this!  When and the FUCK is this thing gonna crash.  Not that I am rooting America's downfall... I am just wanting the truth to be exposed!!!!  Regardless.....

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 23:05 | 4336577 max2205
max2205's picture

It never crashes when you all keep talking about it...stfu

 

They will crash it when they are damn well ready and not a second before

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 22:11 | 4336363 Herdee
Herdee's picture

Just bump up interest rates and see what happens next.It's that easy if you want to repeat history.

Wed, 01/15/2014 - 22:40 | 4336479 CoastalCowboy
CoastalCowboy's picture

Even with all of the shenanigans pulled by the political/plutocratic controlling class prior to our Lord, God, Savior, and anointed One being placed into the Office of President, a casual glace at the chart indicates the negative percent changes in the Civilian Labor Force seem to have a strong statistical correlation with our Supreme Messiah Leader Obama performing his flawless duties as TOTUS.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 08:47 | 4337320 kenezen
kenezen's picture

This is what occurs when we surrender the manufacturing sector! Germany did not. We did because we became anti-heavy industry. In Japan W Edwards Deming's direction after WWII  took the lead. S. Korea followed and finally Deng Xiaoping the greatest hero of China brought his country into the mix. We lost our Capitalistic edge and failed to retain our manufacturing base. Now this president:

Now we have a Socialistic President growing our Federal Employment incomes at prodigious rates and killing what little capitalistic capabilities we have left by operation the Agencies in place of Congress. Here is his latest statements! "If the Congress continues to stand for only dysfunction and delay, I will move without them! I will do whatever I can without Congress.

Our President doesn't say as  a legal scholar that he will stay within the civil order and not alternative States of Emergency. Nor does he say that action will not include a "State of Emergency!" www.hedgemastermb.blogspot.com

 

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 12:53 | 4338095 livid levity
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