The Last 2 Times This Happened, The US Was Already In Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

While the market seems to have rapidly given up worrying about the piss-poor jobs data from last week, the fact of the matter is the longer-term trend of 'employment' in America is anything but questionable. As we pointed out, and was so broadly understood, the number of people in the labor force in American is fading fast. In fact, as the chart below shows, the last 2 times the civilian labor force fell on an annual basis like this, the US economy was already in recession...




(H/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

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HedgeAccordingly's picture

Very large disconnect from wall street and mainstreet in regards to jobs and velocity of money.... Deflation brought on by unemployment really the issue.. As faber mentions - 

Chris Jusset's picture

The Fed has the US economy so doped-up and medicated that we'll never know when or whether we're in a recession.

TeamDepends's picture

Can we just put on our big boy pants already and admit we're in a depression?

Uber Vandal's picture

Correct, much like before Depressions, there were Panics, the last one occurring in 1907.

Before Recessions, there were Depressions, the last one ending ca. 1938.

Now, everything is doubleplus good, since the last Recession ended in 2009.

Say What Again's picture

All that matters is how much will the bernank (and his other central banking buddies) pump into pomo over the next few days, week, months.

Nothing else matters.

sodbuster's picture

Don't you mean Mr Yellen? The bernank has fled the scene of the crime.

Say What Again's picture

I think you have a point there.

I need to update the robot doing my comments on ZH.

Mikebacker's picture

Depends where you live? The South Bronx where I live is in a depression and they know it.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Since Prozac and other AD meds don't seem to work on the likes of you, it may be time to have your brain's Area 25 electro-stimulated.  Works like a charm. /s

Since 99% of you don't know WTF that is, it may be a good time to put some sweat/click equity into it and look it up.  Never too late to learn new things.  :-)

Not Goldman Sachs's picture

I like my subgenual cingulate hypoactivity just fine...can I keep it?

Tall Tom's picture

No placing electrodes into my Cerebral Tissue. Not for me. I do not need a dose of encephalitis. Furthermore from what I have read it has no affect on 44% of the victims. 


I will take care of any clinical depression with massive doses of Vitamin B-Complex Injections. I like the Niacinamide meteabolizing into Nicotinic Acid, which subsequentially blocks the reuptake of Norepinephrine and Epinephrine. (Noradrenaline and Adrenaline)


Perhaps you ought to try that. The clinical results are amazing as that is how the neuroleptics seem to work.


It is amazing that most Mental Illnesses are exacerbated by the lack of proper nutrients and Vitamins in one's diet. They result from the affects of malnutrition.


The Brain is an organ, just like the many other organs, in the Human Body. When deprived of needed nutrients it becomes stressed and subject to disease. Nobody needs introduce foreign implements into another's brain, and overload it with electrostimulation, in order to alleviate that which can be alleviated through a proper diet and exercise.

knukles's picture

Just for shits and grins.
Back in the 70's most everybody took the gubamint data releases for reasonable.... estimates of grand scale demographics and activities
By the 80's shit like seasonals (Which for example in neither geometric or algebraic analysis were seasonal, but macro biased) when applied to prices had a downward bias, etc, when to labor participantion etc, upward.
And guys like me were told I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about way back then.  Shit, I ran the numbers with an HP80, FFS!
Or just plain shut the fuck up and do your job
By the early 90's a lotta people were getting down right suspicious and by the late 90's just plain cynical of the bull shit deluxe
Now, we're in a whole 'nother mode, my friends.

The Conspiracy Theory of the 80's that the gubamint fudgeis the numbers is now Conspiracy Fact

Thank you for pointing that out, Knuks
Any time, Knuks

So, the moral of the tale is that we're presented with fabricated propaganda as hard data, that being proven, meaning we're all the way back to the good olde USSR's redacted numbers that nobody believes, meaning nobody anymore has a fucking clue

Daddy, what were them fundamental things you keep talking about?

Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

When you talk in a serious fashion, I get a lot more out of your posts.


qqqqtrader's picture

Just for shits and grins I'm giving every poster on this page an arrow up,,,

sometimes someone has to be right about something.

Tall Tom's picture

Arrow inflation?


Vote me Red Arrows all of the time.

kchrisc's picture

All the more reason Orwell dwelled so long on the "memory hole" and Winston's "job."

Lies are part and parcel of power--"If you like your..."


"Guillotines cut right through to the truth."

Nothing but the truth.'s picture

In the Fed's world of extend, pretend and play-play economics, the concept of recession/depression have been left out of the rules - the ' New Normal ' I believe they call it.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Exactly.  I don't know why people still insist on using indicators of old, there is one thing and one thing only that matters; Are governments still frantically printing massive amounts of money to hold together the ponzi?  If yes; buy e-minis, we are going higher. 




Rainman's picture

even machines take a nap once in a while

Dr. Engali's picture

Don't be getting all up in my grill. I'm just messing with you man. ;->

rsnoble's picture

I hate that fucking cunt disorderment.

Dr. Engali's picture

Recession huh? So we've upgraded from the depression. Good, I feel better already.

Sudden Debt's picture

we've got pills against depressions now...

order66's picture

This type of shit will continue until there is a second Revolution in this country. It will eventually be dangerous to be rich.

El Vaquero's picture

Be careful what you wish for.  Revolutions without a clear understanding of what the problems are and a clear and well understood set of goals can yield very bad results.  Furthermore, do you know where your last meal was produced?  If you do not, then revolution should scare the hell out of you, because most of the food produced and consumed in this country depends, in one way or another, government largess, dictates, infrastructure, and the petrodollar. 

AGuy's picture

"Revolutions without a clear understanding of what the problems are"

 I fear the next revolution in the USA will be more like one of these:   Russian Revolution, French Revolution (Reign of Terror), Cambodian revolution...

Rarely do revolutions promote liberty. Most result in totaliarian states.

Anusocracy's picture

A revolution of a libertarian and anarchistic majority would renew America.

A revolution of the socialist and fascist majority we currently have would probably result in a military dictatorship.

new game's picture

and that is why we are doing near zero for fear of above outcome. fucked or really fucked.

but, we know this gets to a breaking point. dollar collapse, war. combo petrodollar collapse/war.

i think we are along for the ride.  i always said to my childern, just hope a ww doesn't happen in your life time...

the bastards...

El Vaquero's picture

If you wish to partake in a revolutionary act in this age, rip out your lawn and start growing food where it once was.  Invite your neighbors to eat what you've grown and convince them that it is better.  You need not even mention that you are doing it because you fear what the future has in store.  Start rekindling the spark of self sufficiency in your neighborhood.  Reduce the number of dollars that you put towards state sanctioned agricultural conglomerates, and indirectly, support for the state.  One simple act at a time, start removing the chains from yourself and showing your neighbors how to do the same. It takes time, but the sooner you start, the better off you are. 


I do not wish to see people being killed, people suffering and starving as the result of a civil war, but I think that we will see one regardless of my wishes.  Should I be wrong, and you've gained some degree of self sufficiency along with eating what is likely more healthy, is that so bad?  Should I be right, and civil war does break out, you will be able to do what is required with at least the comfort of knowing that you might just be able to make it through the thing without starving to death. 

HoofHearted's picture

We bought a house with an apple orchard, 16 trees producing way too many fucking apples for my family. So, we invited several families to come get all they needed. We had already canned applesauce and made plenty of cider. A couple of families took us up on it.

The big community garden goes in this spring. We've got chickens, a couple cows, and some goats. And we've got some great neighbors (as well as some that won't make it). 

More people need to leave the city and head out like we have. You'll be glad you did. We are.

Not Goldman Sachs's picture

No,please, stay in the city if you are already there. Leave the countryside to me.

AuEagleNest's picture

Think about adding a couple of bee hives and some heavy-production fruit (blackberries, rasberries, strawberries) and you'll also have an endless supply of great homebrew honey wines.

newprepper's picture

It could go either way. The wagon pullers will eventually collapse because of the wagon riders heavy load. The pullers are also starved of resources so they will become weaker . It's not a question of whether but when at this point.

Dr. Destructo's picture

Nah. Any rebellion to happen on U.S. soil will be crushed under the wheels of the MRAPS, while the majority get distracted by the media that's telling them that it's all China's fault. They get pissed that China took their jobs without realizing that it was really Wall Street that sent the jobs to China and so relations between China and America get strained to the point where China sells off it's 1 trillion dollar in debt and so you get into an east vs. west thing. Nations in the E.U. go where the GOLD does so they'll hem and haw with the U.S. while blowing Chinese businessmen behind the curtains. The U.S. collapses and nations that lost a shitload of money come here to collect, thus integrating us into a global system where we all get fucked collectively.

Anyone wanna take a hit of what I'm smoking?

10mm's picture

Second revolution should be commencing as we speak. The longer the wait, the harder it will be. The 3%ers didn't have time to wait.

Bunga Bunga's picture

Get over it, economic indicators are completely irrelevant in central planning.

Sudden Debt's picture

if only Obama could rule the country by veto and put the entire congress on the bench...
A tirrant... like hitler without the killing...


give it 6 more months and American democracy will look totally different.

The guy is becomming paranoid and dangerous.

corporatewhore's picture

i suppose you think things would be different if the moonbat mormon had been elected?

knukles's picture

Sarah Palin woulda at least been easy on the eyes.

Jesus H Fucking Christ!  The idiots ran a fucking investment banker/priave equity/takeover artist/etc., for president!
Ever wonder why he lost?
How fucking out of touch with reality was that nomination?

Dr. Engali's picture

You're assuming they wanted to win. The repukes are committed to lose as many elections as it takes to rid themselves of the pesky tea party.

666's picture

I wonder if they deliberately wanted to lose so they wouldn't get the blame for the economy tanking under whoever was elected President. Or were they incredibly stoopid?

geno-econ's picture

I think you've got it ! The rain in Spain does'nt matter, nor does the President. It's the financial system , bureaucracy and vested interests that really call the shots. On the fringes Presidents can only play with legacies, patronage and pet projects like Obamacare which really has not changed the rising cost of healthcare or how it is administered in the private and public sector. Same with Volker rule which is now meaningless or military budget run by military industrial complex. Real change comes from defeat in war , revolution or collapsing economies----the latter is most probable considering unsustainable deficits. Second choice is revolution based on unemployment trends and income disparity. Your choice, same price!

new game's picture

nice post/summation- plus 1

Everybodys All American's picture

The guy is becoming paranoid and dangerous.

Some of us warned everyone of this maniacal behavior long before a second term was granted. The dangerous and not funny thing is that most of these people would vote for this idiot again if given the opportunity.

AGuy's picture

"The guy is becomming paranoid and dangerous."

Pardon my intrusion, but I think you meant  to say "The guy is paranoid and very dangerous"