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Puerto Rico Default "Likely", FT Reports
The market just hit a fresh all time high today which means another major default must be just around the horizon. Sure enough, the FT reported moments ago that a Puerto Rico default "appears increasingly likely" and is why creditors are meeting with lawyers and bankruptcy specialists (supposedly Jone Day, which means where Corinne Ball is Ken Buckfire, fresh from its recent league table success with the Detroit bankruptcy, can't be far behind) on Thursday in New York. The FT cited a restructuring advisor, supposedly desperate to sign the engagement letter with creditors and to force the bankruptcy, who said that "the numbers are untenable" and "to issue new debt the yield would have to rise and where they can’t raise new money they will have to stop paying."
The untenability of PR's cash flows results from a "debt service burden that requires paying between $3.4bn and $3.8bn each year for the next four years. As doubts grow about the ability of the commonwealth to service that debt, the cost of doing so will inevitably rise."
For Puerto Rico bonds, such an outcome would not be exactly a surprise, most recently trading at 61:
The rest of the story is largely known:
If Puerto Rico is forced to take that step, the effects will ripple through the entire $4tn municipal bond market. Because the debt is generally triple tax free, in a world of zero interest rates demand is high and it is distributed widely, including in funds that imply they have no exposure to Puerto Rico.
But yields have gone up nevertheless – and prices down – suggesting the markets are increasingly nervous about prospects for repayment. Estimates on how much of that debt is insured range from 25 per cent to 50 per cent of total issuance.
“Everyone thinks they can get out in time,” the restructuring adviser said.
Puerto Rico cannot really raise taxes much more, since the debt per capita is more than $14,000, while income per capita is almost $17,000, a ratio – at 83 per cent – that makes California, Illinois or New York – each at 6 per cent – models of prudence. Meanwhile, at 14 per cent, the unemployment rate is twice the national average.
What would make a Puerto Rico default more interesting is that as in the case of GM, political infighting would promptly take precedence over superpriority and waterfall payments. According to the FT, "any radical step, which the local government denies considering, would involve significant legal wrangling. Congress could step in and create an insolvency regime, lawyers say, since it has comprehensive jurisdiction, but that too would give rise to partisan fighting. The Democrats would say that pension claims have priority while the Republicans would uphold the priority of payments to bondholders, citing the constitutional sanctity of contracts."
Of course, since in the US a bond contract now is only worth the number of offsetting votes it would cost, nobody really knows what will happen. And so, we sit back and watch, as yet another muni quake appears set to hit the US, in the process obviously sending the S&P to higher, record highs.
In the meantime, keep an eye on bond insurers AGO and MBI which have taken on water in today's session precisely due to concerns over what a Puerto Rico default would do to their equity.
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2014 the year of the default....
My bad for drinking scotch and tequila instead of rum!
and me for drinking burbon untill the japs wanted to buy the co.
The treasury dept. announced last Fall there would be no PR bailout.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/puerto-rico-bailout-treasury/2013/10/08/id/529937
Because there is NO WAY this administration would say one thing and then do the opposite. Of course there would have to be window of opportunity for Obama's buddies on wall street to buy up PR bonds for a quick profit before they get par on them in a bailout.
Who is buying PR bonds right now? And why are they paying 70 cents on the dollar if they are shortly to be worth nothing? An article on that subject would be interesting.
PR is not a swing state and has no Congresscritters. Obummer cares less. Let the motherf*^&er burn.
This really goes to show what a give a shit "president" we have when Puerto Rico is left as an orphan of these United States when it is one of the gems of this country regardless of its territorial standing.
Just goes to show how narrowly minded these New York and DC elites really are!
This is terrible for the good people of Puerto Rico.
And what about Guam?? Or all the other just "fly over" parts of this nation who don't really matter to the elites in New York and DC cause they see them as just "places on the map"
I think OB1Knob is on to something as the offshore tax laws were changed in 2013 making it competitive with BVI et al. John Paulson moved his shop to PR last year and I am hearing from other HFs that they are looking to relocate there. These same HFs are predicting that San Juan will be the new U.S. gateway for Latin American $ (stealing thunder from Miami). I would bet that Paulson and the rest of the HF crowd are busy buying up this debt and will be sitting down with the O-Puppet soon to let him know what his cut will be once he bails out PR for the good of the country.
Fuck them. They could already be a state and sucking from the gubmint tit like most of the red states in this country. They chose to remain independent. Puerto Ricans will remember fondly the days before the bankers owned the beaches and closed them to the public.
U.S. should have cut Peurto Rico loose long ago. Lived there in the 80's. Was a disaster then, and always will be
Nearly 200 Years Later, these Words Endure:
The frustration among the taxpayers has nearly reached a 15 year high, so Puerto Rico must tread carefully in these simmering waters. If they press too hard, could Puerto Rico be on the precipice of destruction the French historian, Alexis de Tocqueville, first wrote about nearly two hundred years ago. To quote him accurately, “the American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Surely, Puerto Rico is much farther along this road than the United States of America. Let’s just hope the possible contagion from this Caribbean chaos stays well clear of American shores. The delicate US bond market, is in no shape for this shock.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrymcdonald/2014/01/03/puerto-rico-default...
They suck on the teet now and thats why they love the status quo. Confront them with independance and they are pussies. They must be cut off now !
I live in fly over land and I sure as hell don't want to bail out Puerto Rico. I feel the same way about Detroit and they are actually part of America. They made their beds let them lie in them. The US in the U.S. Government is US the taxpayers. And for the record I was against bailing out the banks but two wrongs don't make a right.
If you feel so strongly about it Headbanger send them a check but leave me out of it.
Das Sphincter O will figure out an extortion angle to keep PR on life support. I am a buyer.
How can they be broke?
All of the Porto Ricans are on welfare down in Florida.
Ha! There actually is some truth to that statement. I believe that many of the people used to go to New York City, but that was in the days when work was to be had. Now that Welfare is the draw, I can see Florida as the natural home for people from Porto Rico.
Why do Puerto Ricans leave Puerto Rico ? Because it is a shithole and they can benefit from more when they are here
Vampy:
Obviously you have failed to count the number of PR votes in the Blue states. Why do you think they haven't cut the island off onto its own and let it try nationhood.
Statehood never goes anywhere - the PRon PR vote it and independence down everytime it hits the ballot. They like all those US welfare programs without the Federal Income tax on them. It's quite a scam for them on our dime.
So the Dems will want to look good for all those PRs living in NYC who still keep up the flavor of "The Old Country" by letting their chickens run free through the house - and get them to keep voting for communists lke De Blasio.
I say give them independence and work out the bonds on their own. Now that would be funny when they tell the bondholders that the PR that issued the bonds no longer exists . . .
Sorry for lacking compassion for "the sanctity of the contract" but considering who will take it in the fanny, I can't help but enjoy watching the criminal class take a hit.
-30-
Spot on !
Bailout for them...bail in for you
Not so black swan? No surpise here, but the reprocussions?
Bacardi is great, but DonQ is better!
Bacardi is a known Mafia (which also produces Don Q, which is cheaper trash ) I don't buy anything owned by Bacardi to avoid this Mafia
Wrong- Bacardi does not produce Don Q.
Serralles distillery produces Don Q.
They did, didn't they ? Jim Beam went to Suntory I thought. p.s. I hate bourbon ( love Rye ) but drink scotch
DCH,
Right on the money mate, this year it kicks off.
I have no doubt in my my mind that 'Bernsplinks', will be peeled alive and filmed from a helicopter, 'cos the coppers will shit their pants.
If you know what I mean....
:-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su-HUDo7XQ4
There is already a rebuttal on bloomberg as this being a buying opportunity. This is NOT an offical meeting of credotors, rather some conference sponsored by an ambulance chasing law firm.
"I have no doubt in my my mind that 'Bernsplinks', will be peeled alive and filmed from a helicopter, 'cos the coppers will shit their pants.
If you know what I mean...."
I don't. I'm really trying, too. You're damned near indecipherable. Boris Alotovcrap is easier to comprehend.
I'm not sure, but I THINK I disagree with your point.
No problems NoDebt.
Use your imagination, and think the very worst if enough people wake up.
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide mate.
;-)
If I am right Meredith Whitney should be Time's 2014 person of the year hands down.
FREE MEREDITH WHITNEY
You're obviously not well DCH. Seek medical attention soon.
Puerto Rico is a shit hole since the 80's when I lived there. U.S. should cut them off since they only suck on the U.S. teet. And that for far too long !
You know, eurogold, that's the second time you've said that, (like the first time was a warm-up). I'm really sorry you didn't enjoy you're time there. You probably never quite got past the language barrier. Borinquen is a beautiful place, filled with lovely, warm people.
As far as the "US cut(ting) them off since they only suck on the U.S. teet(sic)", I presume that either you forgot, (or never bothered to find out), that Puerto Ricans have been serving bravely in the U.S. armed forces not only since before your sorry punk-ass was born, but since before your momma's sorry punk-ass was born as well. Boriquas have fought and died in every armed conflict since WWI, on up through today all around the world in ALL branches of the military. Frankly, your statements are offensive and do you no service.
Puerto Rico geographically gives the US a forward base from which to exert influence far into the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. It is the #1 locale for the interdiction of drugs coming up the Leeward Islands chain. (What was that again about "only sucking on the US teet(sic)?)
So again, sorry you had a lousy PR life experience. Get over yourself and move on.
FORWARD! Hey we don't care how many countries have to crumble and how many people have to die....must....save....central....banksters.
Last economic crisis brought the world economy to the edge of the abyss. Indeed, since then we've made a bold step FORWARD.
I said this 6 months ago. Even Uncle Joe Biden agrees with me that this is a 'big f'ing deal!"
Somebody wake up Meredith Whitney, please.
Who??
Exactly.
I know that cities have their own chapter in US Bankruptcy law and that states do not. Is there a provision in bankruptcy law for protectorates and territories? Or will PR be filing bankruptcy for a specific district (ie sewer, water)?
Bankruptcy should be covered under US federal jurisidiction not territorial courts. Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. are the only 2 non states covered by United States district courts as per Article III of the US Constitution. All other territories like Guam for example are covered by territorial courts as per Article IV of the US Constitution and as such bankruptcy matters are handled by territorial courts in each locality.
As such Puerto Rico sets the ground rules in the federal courts for how and what states can do to restructure debts when the whole state goes tits up and declares bankruptcy just like Detroit is blazing the same trail for municipalities right now in federal court. One of these Socialist paradises like California will be following suite shortly there after once Puerto Rico sets the ground rules.
Puerto Rico sets the rules ? Excuse Me but Puerto Rico has been sucking on the U.S. teet for how long ?
U.S. must cut them off asap !
From wikipedia: Puerto Ricans have participated in many of the military conflicts in which the United States has been involved. For example, they participated in the American Revolution, when volunteers from Puerto Rico, Cuba, and Mexico fought the British in 1779 under the command of General Bernardo de Gálvez (1746–1786),[2] and have continued to participate up to the present-day conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.[3]
65th Infantry Regiment
Thanks.. Good info.
PR is subject to US law until they're not, bankruptcy and the right to discharge unpayable debt could trigger a PR US protectorate exit then nationalization of industries and debt dump. Theoretically PR can and will vote to unaffiliate with America the second the subsidies run out, and then stiff all their bondholders, unlike the other 57 states who cannot escape US national debt PR can.
So when is the USSA going to declare bankruptcy? There is no way they can ever pay off their debt and probably can't print fiat fast enough to cover it anymore.
the day the fed started monetizing the debt is the day the US defaulted.
Sure, but Japan has been doing that for decades already and the cracks are only just becoming big enough to drive a truck through.
"So when is the USSA going to declare bankruptcy? "
When interest rates finally re-set and our leaders realise that maybe we shouldn't have printed so much fuckin money.
1933. That is why your money now says "notes", we still function under martial law and the banks run the country through the treasury department.
Restructuring is the new catch-word we all need to learn, because we're going to hear it a lot this year.
Which is fine, it is a natural part of capitalism, frankly. What isn't fine is when the oligarchs stick the little people with the bill instead of taking the losses that are so rightfully theirs to take.
The answer is simple...Puerto Rico must take on moar debt in order to service their debt. That is the only solution to ensure economic stability.
I learned well from our banker overlords. Now may I have a cookie?
If they love Spanish and Italian debt with a nice ECB backstop....Imagine how they will feel about Puerto Rican debt with Yellen behind the plate.
Oh, they are, Doc. They are. Every month they're rolling debt. It's just costing them more and more each time they go to the well. You can stick a fork in 'em at this point. Mark my words, this debt WILL be 'restructured' one way or the other.
(Without triggering CDSs, of course. Nobody's crazy enough to let that happen, no matter how dire the circumstances.)
Nonsense. Moar debt fixes everything Krugman told me so.
Hey, if I can change my opinion of Nancy Pelosi, I might be able to change my opinion of Paul Krugman, too.
I used to think Pelosi was like my mom's chatty dingbat friend who accidentally got elected to congress. I now realize she is, in fact, a genius and visionary for the times in which we live (see the documentary "Idiocracy"). Krugman can't be too far from that same mark, don't you think?
Lol. The rest of the world's gone insane, why not join it?
I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity. Edgar Allan Poe
Attributable to another ZHer......
Dr. Engali stated: "Nonsense. Moar debt fixes everything Krugman told me so." Doc you forgot the IMF corallary to infinite debt which is that when moar debt gets so ludicrus that even the IMF can't hide the smirk then it is time to confiscate all assets in the country or in this case the protectorate.
I know!! Let's go partaaaayyyy in Puerto Rico!!
First round is on me!
Awesome! Hiking the rain forest in the morning, booze cruise diving or big game fishing in the afternoon, carousing at night. I'm in!
See? How can we let this happen to Puerto Rico?
And lets not forget the finest rum!
Don't forget the "Glow in the Dark" night swims on Vieques Island...
"With some Puerto Rican girls that are just dyin' to meet you."
You may have a cookie..…but you have to vote for MOAR debt for the glass of milk to wash it down, got milk?
Paque tu lo sepas!!!
ZZzzzZZZzzz
AAPL or GOOG is like 50 fucking PR's
oh and let me guess
creditors will repo their 2grams of soverign gold and sell it on the open market, causing 5 billion dollars of panic selling at 3 in the morning.
Puerto Rico is part of the United States, so no "sovereign gold" but I'm sill giggling at the "2 grams" thing. It could all be smuggled out by one person with recent dental work!
"cascading effect." once the pattern of "no repayment for anyone" is set the entire muni complex will be called into question. prepare accordingly.
According to Lagarde, this is easy. Default is deflationary, so QEeen Yellen should just write a check and suckup all PR's bad debt. This allows the people in power, like Lagarde, to stay in power. The Phoenix has DIED? (Now that is a vision for WB)
He who defaults first defaults best....
Buy our bonds....lest we default...
Just offshore the TSLA plant and some solar companies to PR and all will be good.
Didn't John DeLorean try to do that once already?
LOL...PR is my employer's biggest client.
Oh well, I am in retirement mode anyway.
what do you sell? electric pianos and blown speakers?
pointed toe patent leather shoes and silk blouses with ruffles all down the sleeves.
LA SALSA!
'pointed toe patent leather shoes'
LOL!! We called those 'Puerto Rican fence climbers' when I was a kid. <I owned a pair>
We used to call them cockroach corner stompers since most NYC buildings have cockroach problems when you seen one scurrying in your apartment if it ran into the corner you could still stomp on it.
.
Este es muy mal por Puerto Rico bitchezz
This will be a cntl-p event. There is not enough money in PR to confiscate (i.e. Poland) to restart the ponzi. Congress will quietly dump a few billion for them before TSHTF
I'll bet against that happening. You laying odds?
someone email that fucking cunt Yellen to go fire up the printers again
print faster bitch!!!!!!
QEen Yellen, Evans, Dudley and their Zimbabwe economics.
WTF, don't they have those Payday Loan stores down there?
Puerto Pobre? You mean TIFKAPR, the island formerly known as Puerto Rico?
And what does the market say?.......New all time highs on the S&P500.
Pump it up Yellin, you stupid motherfucker!
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xr22b_elvis-costello-pump-it-up_music
17,000 DOW honky
Aye yai yai yai yai....Lucy, you got some splainin' to do.
Now we'll get to see if all the banks were highly leveraged in Puerto Rico government bonds...
very simple solution-PR will issue more debt which will be guaranteed by the Federal Government (i.e.Obama),
The new debt will pay the old debt and the Federal Government will not even notice it as it is "only" a guarantee.....
Back to eating my pizza.........
I'm currently invested in San Juan with 3 Resorts and 176 Metro Buses on leaseback to the city. Been getting phone calls all day from my bankers. Quite frankly, I'm scared !
name change: Puerto Pobre
Template Time...bitchez.
It's the Easter Island effect...
Ask John Wayne Bobbitt about Puerto Rico.He probably wishes he had never heard of the place.Join the Marines.See the world.Marry one of the locals.Bring her back home and get your willie nicked off while ya sleeping.
As to the bankruptcy,good start.Need to start drilling off-shore and find a huge field to exploit.Avoid a military buildup,pay down the pensions and such.Now for Detroit......
I think you might be missing some shit in his timeline there, like the recurrent wife beating... But you know, he didn't worry about the details either.
Until it was too late!
Wrong- Mrs. Bobbit was from Ecuador.
Puerto Rico and Ecuador are different countries. They are separated by over 1800 miles. One sits in the Atlantic Ocean and the other in the Pacific Ocean.
No Problemo! The Fed will save 'em
Boston Fed will channel $1.8m to 6 Mass. citieshttp://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/01/15/boston-fed-tries-transform-neighborhoods-street-level/gXDElqub7RtQ5ONPzvJWfN/story.html
The FED is now The HUD?
What in this fucked up world is going on? Is all of New England a "Promise Zone" now? Is this some last sphincter clinching effort by the HNIC to stimulate 'economic' growth?
the opposite of HUD. they are going to give money to destroy houses for poor people to make houses for rich people.
Me cage en mi madre, MATEN A LOS BANQUEROS!!!
Me cage en mi madre, MATEN A LOS BANQUEROS!!!
San Juan and the surrounding towns are shitholes. The corruption is generational and endemic....just like Detroit.
The rest of the island is muy bueno!
Viva Puerto Rico!
It may sound cruel, but the soundest decision would be to sell PR to the Chinese. Might sober up the debt-drunks in DC for a few minutes.
Nah, not even that.
Let me guess! AIG is balls deep and has to make good on Freakin Reakin CDS.
So, Kyle Bass was early and (likely) correct with this prediction.