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San Francisco Home Sales Plunge To 6-Year Lows
Among the epicenters of the echo-bubble in the US housing 'recovery' is the San Francisco (and Bay Area) region. Between the weather, the frenzied IPOs of non-profitable tech firms, and free-money-funded hedge fund speculation, prices have surged - as DataQuick reports up 23.9% YoY in December! However, it seems perhaps the laws of economics may just have some relevance; as this price spike has had the following impact:
- *SAN FRANCISCO AREA HOME SALES FELL 12.7% IN DEC VS YR AGO
- *DATAQUICK: SAN FRANCISCO AREA DEC HOME SALES DROP TO 6-YR LOW
We are sure this is nothing to worry about. All we need is one marginal home to sell for more than the median $548,500 that San Francisco homes went for and we all feel the wealth effect...right?
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It's all good, the invisible hand is sorting all this out...everyone chill.
NAR says there's never been a better time to buy a house, and buy now and become part of the great ownership society or be forever locked out of your local property assessor's office.
This is really going to upset that Trimtabs dude.
Not that housing doesn't have its issues, but Dataquick gets a feed from local municipalities and in this case it looks like a problem with Alameda county, not likely a regional trend. Once Alameda county catches up it will likely bump the December numbers up signficantly.
BTFD!
I'm just wondering where one can find an SF home for under 600K? A 1BDRM without a functioning bath somewhere in Hunter's Point? Even the shanties in the bad sections of Oakland are 400+. Just how far out do they go with their definition of 'San Francisco'?
And I paid $65,000 for my place that would sell for around $800,000 out there now!
DeadFred; no. Don't do it. The politics are all wrong to own in those neighborhoods. You will regret it.
Not a snowball's chance I would live in Sodom-on-the-Pacific or own a rental in a rent controled city. I will stay on the good side of the zombie-defence hills, if you please. I have relatives looking for a place in the city so I am aware of what you need to pay for a livable house in a neighborhood where you won't get mugged twice a month. On the other hand there are jobs available for those who aren't tech challenged.
DeadFred
Check out Atchison Village in Richmond, off Richmond Parkway a mile north of I-580.
Fully renovated 1-BR coop with yard sold for 30K, last month (to a friend of mine).
Best deals in the Bay Area. You can drive to SF (parking's a bitch in S.F.) or you can take the train.
Actually, Berkeley and Oalkand are more fun than much-overrated S.F. Fuck S.F.
There has never been a better time to kick a realtor in the nuts.
they aren't responsible, they are just ignorant accomplices. Most realtors only have 2 weeks of training, and decided to enter the business because they couldn't/wouldn't go to college or hack it elsewhere.
<disclosure>has his realtor license</disclosure>
I hope that downvote wasn't for having my license. I don't use it. I just have it because I had two weeks off and was bored. Also, MLS access is useful if you want to be a slumlord someday (sorry, I mean the holder of a cashflowing real asset).
All the more reason they shouldn't be talking about the home as an investment. They are WILLING accomplices of the NAR. They work as price fixers at the local level.
are willing and ignorant mutually exclusive?
Forty years ago, I found SF to be a special place.
Now, downtown SF is overrun with troubled people - and with deadbeats who hang out near the free chow at Glide Church and St. Anthony's Church, a block or two from the S.F. Hilton.
This data is weather-related and should be ignored until we get some better data that we can trust becuase it will be better. Happy endings, everyone!
I think it's Fukushima weather related.
i guess the queer eye guys will be short on make-overs this year "sad face"
Go EASY on'em.
i think i see what you did there
Rape
Fukushima Radiation bitchez !
Philly Housing Index - publicly traded US housing companies - is far below 2005 highs
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/monthly-philly-housing-index-closes-sha...
But in December, HGX went for a ride to the upside as central bankers continue to attempt to manipulate markets that central bankers don't have the depth of resources to do.
Don't worry, the pleathora of scam artists involved will find some way to prop it up.
It's fucking bullshit, but now it's fixed.
I like beaches where I can swim without freezing to death.
I like beaches and real estate which are not getting nuked
Fiji:
The water's cold all the way down to San Diego. That's why it doesn't get hot in the summer, along the W Coast.
Seller's market.
Nice jogging weather up there. Hope the prices keep falling and I get to use a student loan to buy a part of a house in San Francisco
who cares? the SPX is at all time highs, which makes up for any weakness in the economy.
you're welcome,
Mr. BernankYellen
So there is a lot less flipping?
The poor chumps who can find no greater fool to flip their properties to... might be heading for the Golden Gate Bridge...
FedFUBAR.
Get over it, market indicators are completely meaningless in central planning.
I guess you can call this an "invisible hand-job" ;-)
This could be the start of something interesting or it could be a one month blip with people just waiting for better inventory or better mortgage rates.
Yo baby yo baby YO. Talk about your cognitive disconnects and reconnects. There are dozens of major South-of-Market condo projects underway right now. S.F. is overbuilt out the ass. I have with great effort held my constituents in abeyance to keep us from spending our hard-earned cash (now in a rolled-over 1% 1-year CD) on a 'rental' and I am thankful for this piece of news as it will make my task easier.
I have heard sooooo many stories about the Next Great Wave ... our modest Coco County ranch house went up 35% in 2013 ... perZillow that is ... I have been pounding the desk this was an ephemera based on Chinese hot money and hype ... and here is the first evidence I may actually be correct.
Thank you ZH.
I look to buy in 2015 when the 40% off sale starts on First & Folsom ...
Uh, um....
OK folks, notice that the article points out that the number of sales is down, not price.
While I agree the market is way over heated, the reason the number of sales is down is NOT because the market is cooling. It's because there's NO INVENTORY. If you have no inventory of 'units' to sell, it follows that unit sales will go down. Pretty straight forward - me thinks. One penninsula town I know well usual has an inventory of 150 single family homes on the market at any given time. Over the past 18 months, it has hovered around 40 to 50 houses for a city with about 33,000 'households'. Not much. Over Christmas, there were but 9 houses on the market. So inventories are waaaay tight. And thus, unit sales are down.
they're still building shit loads of high-rise condos/apartments... just built a 250 unit behind my office.
and there's plenty of inventory; investors are walking around the mission in suits and clipboards analysing multiunit buildings.
shit is out of control for yeild... i say, "let'm get fucked"
only stupid people buy an $800k 2bed one bath condo with homeless outside; with a $500 HOA fee.
Not much inventory in San Ramon,a 1800 sf house by me just sold for $802K,unbelievable.When my house gets to 1 million I'm selling.
And the banks are still holding inventory off the market. There are 15 million vacant homes in the US. There is inventory, it is just not on the market.... yet. But go ahead and jump in because, you know, it's a great time to buy.
I'm aware of the banks still holding in the rest of the country and that folks like Blackrock are what we might call 'non-traditional buyers' of boat loads of inventory, becoming the worlds largest landlord. But those are separate issues relative to the housing market in SF and the penninsula, and yes, the east bay. The SF Bay Area is not just a national mecca for tech, but global. Mix the employment of Old Tech, New Tech (however fleeting), Biotech, Financial Services (Visa, Wells, Schwab), Retail and a few others and you've got quite a brew for driving supply/demand imbalances. Oh, and add in money from Asia looking for a home or five.....
I don't doubt there are condos going up or that it won't end bad, but the supply imbalance is restricting 'sales'.....
cause it's different here......
Hongcha -
I'm waiting for the 70% off.
Better hit the bid sanfran, prices will be radiating lower fast. Who's holding that mortgage paper? Why the taxpayer of course.
Enjoy living in San Fransicko! You have a stellar representative in Piglosi!
Kolonel, it is a nice place to live if you have the money. Many of us despise that hagfish and her Knesset sisters Feinstein and Boxer. You get over the politics here and it's not bad for the U.S.
Being such a fan of modified cars, there's no way I'd live in Commiefornia. The land of fruits, nuts, and flakes.
No offense to you Hongcha. Cali was a nice place to visit, now I steer way clear of it.
BS! CA used to be one the best places in the world to live. 1990s. It's gone to shit. Mexicans/illegals everywhere. Rich third world arseholes buying up everything, big government, terrible place to open a small business, astronomical housing prices, etc. I've been in the OC for 7 years. I make good money here but it's overrated. Even the monotonous weather gets very old. CA just hit a record driest year ever in 2013. CA used to be an awesome state. If you are a minority or illegal alien it's heaven on earth. But if you're a hard working, tax paying, law abiding middle class white boy, Fuggit bout it!
Right on, Conquering. You nailed it.
Except for the weather. I still prefer our eternal spring to the six-month winters of the East.
BS! CA used to be one the best places in the world to live. 1990s. It's gone to shit. Mexicans/illegals everywhere. Rich third world arseholes buying up everything, big government, terrible place to open a small business, astronomical housing prices, etc. I've been in the OC for 7 years. I make good money here but it's overrated. Even the monotonous weather gets very old. CA just hit a record driest year ever in 2013. CA used to be an awesome state. If you are a minority or illegal alien it's heaven on earth. But if you're a hard working, tax paying, law abiding middle class white boy, Fuggit bout it!
What about if I'm an illegal white boy? It's too cold in Canada.
You are a little too obviously forgetting to mention who made it go to shit in the first place.
Hongcha -
"Knesset Sister Feinstein". I LIKE THAT!
But S.F. is not such a nice place even if you have the money.
The hills of North Berkeley are a nice place, if you have the money.
Marin can be nice except for the excessive car traffic and the lack of high culture. (And I don't mean drug culture - Marin has plenty of that.)
So one would need a household income of $219,400 ($548,500 / 2.5) in order to comfortably afford said McMansion.
Double income no kids work 24/7 as a tech slave no problem.
The Bay Area is a shopper's paradise. Bargains everywhere. Once you've got the real estate thing down.
Well, and the other thing - lots of people still want to live here so it's almost impossible to find a decent job.
But S.F. is now so generally fucked that I predict trends will reverse. Functional people will desert this sinking ship and leave it to the deadbeats.
The Hopium fog is very thick in the Bay Area...
I wonder where I can find a house for less then 600k other then oakland or east bay, on peninsula you can buy only 1-2 badroom appartment for that price.
Detroit
Shhhh! Don't tell him, price will go up!!!
Wait till the Fukushima contamination comes in and hits San Fran. They will see 100% drop in prices and the shows on TV won't be "Flip that House" they will be "Fuck that House, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!"
It gets better. Fukushima is not the only radiation source. Hunter's Point is: http://www.sfweekly.com/2001-05-09/news/fallout/
I'm going to embrace and adsorb the radiation then I'm going to run east and contaminate you MOFO's. HAHAHA Tag you're it.
man $800k+ for a 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo with high maintenance fees, rent control and unlimted tax increase exposure in SF...where do I sign up??
Isn't there some sort of odd California homeowners law where the State can't raise property taxes above a certain % though?
That'd be Prop 13 from back in the day, can't raise the valuation to mark to market but you can raise the tax rates on everyone. Of course all the dems want to kill this, and there are still a fair number of homes with valuations from 1978 like $40,000 for a 2000sqft house that would be $600,000 now, but number of those is decreasing year by year as the owners sell, die, or tear down the old shacks.
Neighbor just bought a 2000k sq ft house for $628k and sunk around $30k in upgrades. In a normal CA market it's maybe a $450k house. I'm renting. Wishing this bubble would pop and collapse so I can get in on the market. Anyone that buys a house in CA right now is a real moron. Prices are going down, inventory is going through the roof just watch. Once the middle class starts losing their ass again you'll see CA foreclosure rise like crazy. Oh but I'm sure idiots like my neighbor will be the government for a bailout and go crying to the bank for a refi or live in the house mortgage free for two years and recoup his entire investment plus losses while the bank decides what to do with it. There is no free market or economic justice in Amerika anymore.
The sooner the "Big One" hits, the better. SoCal is a giant insane, PC toilet bowl that mother nature needs to flush!
Fabian Calvo - Next Real Estate Collapse Will Make 2008 Look Like a Dress Rehearsal!
If you listen to this content on this video it's very enlightning to say the least! Hey i don't believe everything i read and only about half of what i see. but i think it's worth the watch. Enjoy!
http://goldsilver.com/video/fabian-calvo-next-real-estate-collapse-will-...