This Trend Is Not Your Friend

Tyler Durden's picture

As equity markets revert to their new normal BTFATH, Japanese-Yen-pinned reality, we thought a gentle reminder of the longer-term state of the real (not financial) economy would prod more than a few into the realization of just how 'encouraged' they should be by the nominal high after nominal high that is gloated over day after day...



(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

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Headbanger's picture

The Y/Y change should be negative by now.

NoDebt's picture

It probably is.  The graph says 10 year moving average.

Headbanger's picture

I meant to say that and wonder what the 5yr average Y/Y change looks like as that is when this mess started.

I am more equal than others's picture




Taxes are disposed income.....taking your money and giving it to those who hired K Street thugs who thoroughly use it for trashy purposes. 

InjectTheVenom's picture

Yes !  I say, just flip the damn chart over, then everything is ok again !!   FORWARD !!

venturen's picture

should be crossed with average bonus for criminal banker bonuses

max2205's picture

Makes cents....Every  2 earner household is now  one earner if tbey got lucky

knukles's picture

Serious question....
Do the numbers include the "high" wage welfare and disability folks?
If not it's even worse and it's just plain disastrous as is......

Zadok's picture

Using a real deflator from Shadowstats instead of Fed propaganda gives a wildly different picture to the downside that much more realistically matches my lifetime observations.

Compounding interest on the negative side is exceptionally painful.

Trend is correct, magnitude is WAY off on the optimistic side!

TheReplacement's picture

Not probably.  Certainly.

You're welcome;)

JustObserving's picture

Growth in disposable income has been negative for years now if you use real inflation numbers instead of fake ones issued by the US BLS.  Real inflation has been 3% to 6% higher for the last decade than the official inflation.

So real disposable income has been falling rather sharply.  But with the miracle of fake statistics, you can make a silk purse out of a sow's ear and stuff it with fiat.

aerojet's picture

It's all in where you came from, though.  I was in and out of college, a masters, and then a PhD and until age 30, I only worked like 2 years total in between school gigs.  One year, I think '99 or '00 I filed a zero tax return because, well, I had zero income that entire year.  So what was my disposable income like in the '90s compared to now?  In the 11 years since then, my income, and also my disposable income has skyrocketed.  So while I feel for the people out of work, I also think they're mostly a bunch of entitled punks who need to get off their fat asses and run a mile, then get their life back onto some kind of plan involving hard work.  And if not hard work, then at least, well, "work" of some kind.   There's simply no excuse except this learned helplessness that all the people have.  Aside from that, there is a subtle but very real age discrimination going on, but I contend that useful and dedicated people of any age eventually find ways to make real income.

My only other observation is that large multinationals are going out of their way to exploit younger workers and H1B types.  It's so damned obvious when they avoid hiring the truly talented and inspiring doers in favor of those who either don't know their worth or have an immigration status barrel they're being bent over.  Meanwhile, the executives are doing very well for themselves.  Very well, indeed. 

RKDS's picture

H1Bs are an even bigger fraud than Obamacare.  Why weren't there 40 votes to end that program?

OceanX's picture

"  In the 11 years since then, my income, and also my disposable income has skyrocketed.  So while I feel for the people out of work, I also think they're mostly a bunch of entitled punks who need to get off their fat asses and run a mile,"

Oh boy, you have a world of awakening ahead of you!  Only in the labor market for 11 years...  We are all ground up between the jaws of taxation and inflation.  Stay healthy my friend and keep running.  Let us know how that is working for you in another 10 years...


slaughterer's picture

Obamacare premiums should sink Disposable Income well into the negative region.   

Againstthelie's picture

I just looked at the FRED not averaged data and indeed for the last data point from Nov it is -0.1%.

But this is the positive news!

Since the highest 1%-10% are extremely profiting from rescueing the financial ponzi scheme with money printing, the MEDIAN data, which is the useful representation for the average Joe, must be much worse.

Max Damage's picture

2 guys got jailed in the UK yesterday for 7 years for.........................................


Wait for it.........................................


Printing their own money, with a spare printer at the back of a shop during the holidays


Amateurs didn't even manage to print 2 million. They need lessens from Benny boy

Duke of Earl's picture

If only they had a bank that would buy unlimited amounts of their created debt....

101 years and counting's picture

printing is ok, along as you use it to buy gov't bonds or, hand it over to TBTF.

Frank N. Beans's picture

so if you're a bitcoin miner, that's okay?  That isn't "printing" money? 


TheReplacement's picture

They got nailed for counterfeiting.  It is not the same as printing YOUR own currency or money. 

There may be a lesson in this.  Hmmm....

Don't trust Bitcoin.  We need to make something up that has real world value or can be backed by something with real world value.  I'm sure TPTB will allow it.  They'll have to, if they allow BTC.  If they allow BTC and don't allow Victory Gold and Victory Silver and Victory Copper (just throwing those names out there) then won't it be obvious what BTC is all about?

Why do we HAVE to use their money for everything?  Why do we HAVE to use their markets for everything?  Why do we HAVE to play the game their way at all?  We are free men.  Or are we?  If we are then let us act like it and live free, free of them.

Zadok's picture

I guess the initiation to the elite's did'nt go well so the thought the could cut in on the action...bad choice.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking!

SlipStitchPass's picture

Yes....but don't you just feel richer? For the first time in the history of the US we have a black man as President and he is a world citizen and he is giving us things to be proud of. We also have the largest and most diverse financial system on the globe. Team America Bitches!!

Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

Yeah and Al Capone should be Chairman of the Fed.  Too bad his name does not end Caponowitz

Stoploss's picture

The top part of my screen is cut off.


Is that a chart of Bitcoin?

Termin8or's picture

Who cares about income when we all are gettig rich off of bitcoin!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm not sure if you are dissing Bitcoin or not with your statement, but I suspect you are. Regardless I am curious why so many people here on ZH dislike Bitcoin and the concept of a virtual currency.

I am not an advocate of Bitcoin nor have I seriously looked at Bitcoin in order to form an opinion. But with well over 90% of US dollars 'virtual', meaning not in physical currency form but just bits and bytes stored in computers everywhere, why do so many hate Bitcoin for similar reasons?

Just curious. Anyone wanna give it a go and answer?

earnyermoney's picture

Maybe all the haters are paid shills for the various alphabet soup agencies of fed gov.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Maybe we should be concerned about re-establishing some rule of law before we worry about what the next fiat mechanism will be.

So long as a realtive few can conjure billions of any fiat out of thin air, then they can move whatever "market" they like, including bitcoin or litecoin or silver or gold...

Only one rule applies now, when fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.

semperfi's picture

and once that's re-established just maybe the Constitution can be re-established

Eeyores Enigma's picture

Soon BitCoin will become self-aware, merge with the NSA computer complex and takeover the drone program making it totally autonomous.

At this point it will start taking out any and all who dis the BitCoin.

Then the BitCoin will have true value.

SlipStitchPass's picture

If someone could show me where to go to sign up to be a paid schill that would be awesome!! For as much time as I spen on these sites I could at the lease be paid by the CIA or BAC to schill. Let me give it a try and you tell me how it makes you feel.

Gold is a worthless relic. Deficits do not matter when you have the reserve currency. There is no proven manipulation. Bitcoin is going to $0.00. Your mom suck a mean dick!


knukles's picture

Maybe because they're both virtual?
Maybe because the wallets are not "secure" as presented
Maybe because the technology is available to front run and back read prior to and subsequent to encryption?
Maybe because it is an "unknown" as is "Who are those guys?"
Maybe just wary of a scam?
Maybe figuring Uncle is behind this somewhere as in transition to 100% virtual fiat?
Maybe maybe maybe

prains's picture

Maybe there's not enuff gerbils to spin the wheel when we convert to kerosene for power

MrPalladium's picture

If Bitcoin is to be a real currency, then why is it so difficult to buy? There is all this endless hype and talk about various commercial enterprises accepting bitcoin, but no way for the masses to actually get any bitcoins without significant difficulty and financial risk. The supposed "scarcity" seems artificially imposed by a relatively small 100 or so early adopters who have large numbers of bitcoins. In fact, while surfing the exchanges yesterday to buy a few litecoins, I found that the exchanges want you to buy bitcoin and then use the bitcoins to buy litecoin, making it difficult to buy the competing currency, and attempting to use demand for competing crypto currencies to prop up bitcoin in hopes that inertia will prevent buyers of competing crypto currencies from completing the second leg of the transaction. The entire bitcoin phenomenon looks like an orchestrated publicity campaign to make its originators rich and to forestall the inevitable competition from competing crypto currencies. Curiously, the carefully engineered "scarcity" based on the illiquidity of bitcoin makes the exit rather narrow for those early adopters thereby increasing the risk of volatility and steep losses for any late purchasers.

aerojet's picture

In other words, it is a cleverly designed Ponzi.

papaswamp's picture

I can only speak for myself. It is very easily tracked, hacked, mined and stolen. It requires electricity and cannot be physically held. I'm old fashioned that way.

Manipuflation's picture

Yes, but not easily mined.  Just a point of information.  +1.

dick cheneys ghost's picture


as I wrote in a thread last nite........the secrecy behind both the Fed and bitcoin are deeply distrubing (rothschilds fingerprints)

for me, the next form of money/currency will need to be completely transparent

Legolas's picture

Give me shiny gold and silver.  I don't want a currency I can see through !!  LOL !



eddiebe's picture

Bitcoin is just another way for the PTB to manipulate. The only honest money, is gold and silver. Period. It is the only method that puts us all on an even footing across nations and person to person. 

 And to state the obvious:Of course gold and silver are not the perfect medium of exchange, but on this planet, and knowing human nature, there is no other way to keep the temptation of using currency in the employ of evil in check. 

AlaricBalth's picture

"...if you don't understand it, get rid of it."

Carter in the movie Payback

nonclaim's picture

"... why do so many hate Bitcoin for similar reasons?"

It has the same problems and add some more: depends on a huge infrastrucure of electricity + telecom/internet + computers which together look as a middle man (if you squint a little bit) taking his cut.

It has some technical merits and get cookie points for trying hard but it is not an alternative, as sold to us, to FRN + credit/debit cards any way you look at it.

Manipuflation's picture

Sure CD but it is pretty early in the morning for said discussion.  I do think you answered your own question anyway.  I was aware of bitcoin before the first ZH article ever came out about it.  I was negative on the idea because I did not see the value.  Bear in mind, I had a face to face argument with a friend(and still is a friend) about what intrisic value is.  I postulated that BTC had no intrinsic value and he could not disagree but he also offered that this was why I was missing the point.  His point was well taken and he even convinced me to try it.  I did try BTC and eventually did so right here on ZH.

Exchanges and tranactions fees are two major problems with a crypto currency.  My argument has always been is that you need someone to be on the other side of a trade and to agree in price for it to make sense.  Bitcoin has managed to do that but can it keep doing so? 

Unhackable?  I doubt that very much but the cost of trying to hack the algo is going to be counterproductive for the next year or so.  Getting back to your point, you ask why it is any different than other centrally banked digits.  I do not see how it is.  Oh yes, I know ALL about the anonymity aspect.  Yeah, right. 

Here is Fonestar. 


Chump's picture

I didn't junk you and I don't care one way or the other about Bitcoin, but couldn't someone hate them both for that very reason?  I read that comment often here: "If you don't hold it you don't own it."

headhunt's picture

Volatility, basically a futures market and without cash there is no respite from government oversight.

You are PWND!

TuPhat's picture

One man's fiat, another man's Bitcoin.