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Best Buy Plummets 30%, Is Better Sell Following Abysmal Holiday Sales Update
Despite several apparently well respected sell-side shops proclaiming that all would be well, the electronics warehouse missed comps (Sales at stores open at least 14 months were down 0.9 percent in the US (compared to expectations of +2.0%) and is being punished. Revenues fell 2.6% for the comparable period also. Shares are down 30% in the pre-market to 7-month lows as the company claims an "intensely promotional holiday season." It seems, perhaps, that following several other retailers' earnings updates the holiday season was even worse than many had expected (especially in the bricks-and-mortar stores that actually employ real people).
From the conference call:
- *BEST BUY SURPRISED BY CONSUMER ELECTRONICS MARKET DECLINE DEC.
- *BEST BUY: PRICE CUTTING WILL CONTINUE IN JANUARY
- *BEST BUY: HIGHEST DISCOUNTS IN TV, MOBILE AND COMPUTERS
What did not work:
... our holiday revenues were negatively impacted by a number of factors, including: (1) the aggressive promotional activity in the retail industry during the holiday period, which we believe did not result in higher industry demand and had a deflationary impact on our revenue; (2) supply constraints for key products; (3) significant store traffic declines between “Power Week” and Christmas; and (4) a disappointing mobile phone market
But there is hope:
“Looking ahead, our holiday performance reinforces our resolve and our sense of urgency around our transformation. As a result, our key priorities going into fiscal 2015 are: (1) to more quickly and more deeply lower our cost structure; (2) to grow our online channel at an accelerated pace; (3) to continue to improve and innovate the multi-channel customer experience; (4) to enhance our marketing approach and effectiveness, particularly relating to personalization, targeting of customer segments and buying occasions; and (5) to reinvigorate and grow our Geek Squad services business. We will keep you updated on our progress on these initiatives throughout the year.”
In defense of our market share, and from a financial perspective, we made a significantly greater-than-expected year-over-year investment in pricing in the holiday period as Hubert previously discussed, and are projecting to continue to invest through the end of the quarter. In addition to this earnings impact for the fourth quarter, our Q3 FY14 earnings release quantified an additional impact that was estimated in the range of negative 60 to 70 basis points as a percentage of revenue versus last year’s fourth quarter (Q4 FY13) non-GAAP operating income rate of 5.7%. This range was comprised of the following: (1) the negative impact of pricing investments; (2) the negative impact of our $150 to $200 million in FY14 incremental Renew Blue SG&A investments; (3) the temporary negative impact of our mobile warranty costs; and (4) the negative impact of the economics of our new credit card agreement; all substantially offset by the positive impact of our $505 million in annualized Renew Blue cost savings. Now as a result of all of these impacts, partially offset by substantially better-than-expected “non-Renew Blue” cost reductions, we expect our fourth quarter non-GAAP operating income rate to be 175 to 185 basis points lower than last year’s (Q4 FY13) 5.7% non-GAAP operating income rate, excluding the impact of such items as restructuring charges and asset impairments.”
So just BTF30%D then?
But nobody is more embarrased this morning than Credit Suisse retail analyst Gary Balter who said the following just yesterday:
Best Buy: Still Our Best Buy
Best Buy will provide a holiday sales update tomorrow, in the midst of other retailers falling well short of expectations so far this Christmas season. This has led to a continued selloff in BBY's stock, a sharper selloff than even some retailers that have reported misses, as there has also been a share of profit taking after BBY's 237% gain last year. As we detail in this note, we believe the bad news may be already in this name.
No Gary, they are not.
It is not that we think that BBY had a blowout Christmas season, as we detail below, we believe sales were fine but margins are the unknown. However, we are here for a longer-term turnaround and the stock valuation, we believe, does not reflect that potential. The stock trades at 5.2x 2014 consensus EBITDA, and we believe, after a first half of investing, we will begin to see the benefits of the changes in the second half of 2014 and beyond. Among those changes are a better web presence, which is still not there, reducing losses in product returns, developing a consistent consumer loyalty and credit card program, and furthering retail vendor partnerships. These are multi-billion dollar opportunities and will play out over a few years period.
We remain in here for the long haul assuming the company continues to take advantage of the low hanging fruit still available to it. While Q4 may have been a bump in the road (again, we don't think so), this story, combined with AAP, remain our best risk/reward names in 2014. We appreciate those investors that want to wait for the number as nearly all releases have sent stocks lower this season, but past Thursday absent some major change in direction, this is a place to be in 2014.
That's great, there is only one problem: this is not Amazon, where this kind of disappointment would lead to a 10% surge in the stock - this is an old school retailer where profits and traffic actually matter. Better luck to your clients next time though.
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180,000 full and part time employees. CURRENTLY.
Circuit City redux.
Maybe they should start selling Obamacare.....or Justice Roberts should mandate buying a new flat screen to be the law of that land.
I think its the POLAR vortex....everything should be fine next year.
Tax credits would solve that problem.
Best Sell
LOL! Stores like Best Buy are predicated on the business model that people will be suckers for the fashionability of owning the newest iteration of something that is in actuality just another commodity. Do you really need to toss your 65" TV for a 70" one? Is a 5G really that much better than a 4G? Is Windows 8 really better than Windows 7, Vista, or even XP?
The culture of the average American business model has gone way over the top towards marketing electronic commodities as consumable items meant to be immediately discarded as soon as the next iteration of the same old tired thing is manufactured in Asia and overmarketed here. A business model based too heavily on marketing and not real substance is shaky at best.
I remember as early as the 1960s that it was a thing to buy a new car every three years.
You gotta be a goddamn fool to buy anything at these brick & mortar shops when reputable online shops (NOT AMZN) offer better/competitive pricing, ships for free AND not charge you taxes as long as you're out-of-state.
Yeah, no, I don't see it. In fact shipping charges are positively monstrous more often than not. Always though UPS or FedEx too, where shipping a DVD next door costs $17, because herp derp the USPS is socialist. Really, the advantage of shopping online is availability. I tried so hard to fight the e-commerce trend. I liked going to stores and seeing products in person. But when every store is stocked like a Soviet supermarket, what's the point?
This wasn't even Obama's fault as many would like to believe. For me, it started in the late 1990s and picked up steam in the early 2000s. Now all I really buy at a store is food (obvious) and clothes (because posted sizes are random at best).
You ever try to buy anything but the cheapest commodity electronics at a B&M store? If you need a mouse or a tablet, BestBuy's alright. Last time I was in a BestBuy, I needed a radio and they didn't carry them. Forget about something like Wacom pad or brands beyond the 3 carried by Walmart. Back when we had alternatives, like CircuitCity and CompUSA, I never left an electronics store empty-handed. If HHGregg weren't such a joke, BestBuy would've gone under years ago. You can't even buy DVDs there anymore on account of the selection being comparable to a single bargain bin at Walmart. Nobody knows anything about what they're selling so you can't even be upsold on a TV or something if you know anything at all about them already.
Another market that's spiraling to oblivion is the toy market. When I was growing up, there were half a dozen chains, all of them stuffed with toys. It was impossible to go home empty-handed. My favorite was KayBee, back before Bain turned them into a dollar store with premium prices. When they finally went under in 2008, it was like putting a pet to sleep. You miss your friend but at least they're not suffering anymore. So now we're stuck with ToysRUs, another company that Bain's squeezing the life out of. Barren shelves, a high junk ratio, premium prices, etc. I've been trying to get a toy store up and running with very little capital and it's sad to see them always thinking as small as I have to. Someday in the future I'll probably be telling grandchildren about toy stores like mine talked about trolleys and ice cream trucks.
It makes me sad. I have such great memories of toy stores, independent drug stores with soda fountains, hobby stores, music stores, and other things that were amazing to a young child. All my son can have memories of is ToysRus, Target, and Walgreens. We can't even go sledding on the big hill in town because some girl broke her leg.
What's sad is I'm not a 65 year old guy talking about the 1950s, I'm 35.
Wow, did not know we are about the same age! I always took you for about 60+ years from your posts. I find myself turning into one those "old people" with my thoughts on the younger generations. At least I am not yelling at kids to "Get off me lawn!", yet.
You gotta be a goddamn fool to buy anything at these brick & mortar shops when reputable online shops (NOT AMZN) offer better/competitive pricing, ships for free AND not charge you taxes as long as you're out-of-state.
That's the BMW model:
lease a new small beemer every three years. There are tons of them around me drivin by the hipsters and posers.
I'm going to defend Best Buy (a little). There are some things like headphones that you need to try out before buying, because they all sound and feel a little different. Best Buy is useful for things like that.
Yep.
For those products, you try them out at Best Buy, and after finding out which one is the most satisfactory, order it online for 10% to 40% less.
Yep, and it's pretty hard for that business model to work in an environment where real incomes have been dropping steadily over the past decade, and most people are already burdened with debt to the point they are unwilling to take more just to upgrade their flat screen TV. Bullish for UPS though. That little fiasco around the holidays just proved even more than online retail is the way of the future, so many people avoided the actual stores and had items shipped that the biggest freight company couldnt keep up. Easy to see wherr the declining retail sales went. People can do all their shopping without having to drive anywhere and deal with the crowds, rude sales people etc. these brick and mortar stores will continue to decline. Best buy will be circuit city eventually
"Is Windows 8 really better than Windows 7, Vista, or even XP?"
I'm still using XP to this day. The "window" for supporting XP is drawing to a close, though.
i am near the peak. i see a corpse, ah it is best buy! many oxygen cylinders! is that amazon or is that twitter using the last of the oxygen or is it a the last gasp. plant the flag and desend quickly...
netflix has a flag, many others(too)with shredded masts.
facebook eagerly asending towards the peak of everst too.
in fact the asent is dotted with climbers! woow, soo many going to the summit all at once!
oh, look one lost its hold on the face; falling to krags of jagged death below!
I see a storm brewing with -70 wind chills, oh such a way to die...
.
Bravo, sir
EVERY SINGLE EUROPEAN JUST GOT 900 EURO'S RICHER!!!!
dutch aritcle
http://www.tijd.be/nieuws/politiek_economie_europa/Belg_900_euro_rijker....
(sorry for the non translation but google is down over here)
EUROPE IS CHANGING IT'S WAY TO CALCULATE GDP AND THAT NOT ONLY MAKES EVERYBODY RICHER BUT ALSO NATIONAL DEBTS WILL DECLINE!!!!
I can't figure out how I actually got richer... BUT THEY SAID SO, SO IT'S TRUE!!!
at least I can pay more taxes now...
CHINA SOLVED THE SMOG PROBLEM MOMENTS AGO!!!
http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/960/Buitenland/article/detail/1775311/2014/01/1...
they put up a video of the sun for the people....
OBAMA SHOULD PAY CLOSER ATTENTION TO OTHER COUNTRIES ON HOW TO SOLVE PROBLEMS!!!
THINK TANK BITCHEZ!!
They should sell guns and ammo and open up a shooting range in every store.
A set dedicated to GNN(Government News Network) in every room, with built in audio and cameras....
It's for our own good.
This pos....They pumped this to incredible heights....and dumped it...look for all time lows
Fuck you best buy....you worthless has been
Do not participate in this used cars salesmen's market. The MSM is constantly selling lies to the public.
You mean there were...
Layoffs in 5, 4, 3, 2...
Who is going to by all the Tesla's?
and all those government bonds?
and all that everything with declining incomes and maxed out lines of credit?
lord have mercy on the shopaholics!
grant them one final hope-spendersanon...
Who will buy the Teslas? Gubmint
Who will buy the Gubmint bonds? Gubmint
This turd was $9 less than 2 years ago and has gone up like a rocket while sales go nowhere. It should fall 90%, not 30%.
JCP closing some 30 stores by May, suspect Sears will follow....and now Best Buy will probably do the same. Who is next?
Goldblatts?
Radioshack, kmart, barnes and noble, teen retailers.....
AND BEFORE YOU KNOW IT THERE ISN'T A STORE AT EVERY SINGLE CORNER OF EVERY SINGLE STREET AND PEOPLE WILL NEED TO DRIVE 5 MINUTES TO GET TO A STORE!!!
so...
GO LONG OIL!!
Some good legislation would fix that problem right up.
like a minimum spending quota at Best Buy from your salary or benefits for example...
and at McDonals, iStore, Hooters... ECONOMIC GROWTH YOU CAN BELIEVE IN!!!
You can take Hooters off the list.....unless we run into a shortage of boobs. The boob panels would never let that happen.
Short commercial real estate.
Will be great for commercial real estate & mall REITS
Sears Canada laid off 1540 workers yesterday, 500+ in the small city of 50,000 near me. No store closings I am aware of, layoffs in the call and distribution centres.
http://www.intelligencer.ca/2014/01/15/layoffs-at-sears
But we are confident that this coming holiday season will be the strongest yet....
Long bowling alleys as a replacement business....the dude abides
Careful man........the dude is holding a beverage here.
The scene where the nazis toss the weasel into the dude's tub is an all-time classic.
No, TD, those men were nihilists. Nothing to be afraid of.
It's just a game, man.
What if the Fed, instead of giving money to the big banks, cut out all the middle men and simply bought electronics directly from Best Buy?
Where do you think the Obamaphone comes from?
On their balance sheet the electronics would then be valued at the price at the time of purchase...even ten years on.
Wait, you're telling me a brick and mortar store that is heavily reliant on the middle class, had dismal holiday sales on cheap depreciating electronics?! No. Fucking. Way. I will not believe it.
In other news, be prepared to hear about energy suppliers in your area going possibly bankrupt after last weeks fiasco, along with the rest of the month. Power pricing have gone full retard for next week and balance of the month. As an example, PJM West Hub balance month is trading 205/215 for the last week in Jan.
Ow. Now THAT'S a monkey-hammering!
But to put it in perspective, it's now only back to where it was in August, off of lows of 12 around the beginning of 2013.
And all the sell-side guys are saying "With this pull-back, Best Buy is now your best buy in retail!! 30% off!! Stock up!!" (no pun intended, but it happened anyway)
The entire market should be following this but Kevin and the gang will be pumping in a few hours so we will finish the day down single digits at worst.
retail cannot compete against amazon when the street and investors give amzn a pass on profitability quarter after quarter while holding B&M to a different standard.
that said, f the B&M st(wh)ores. we do NOT need this much random big box retail and mall-space. Convert into sustainable farm land that's actually productive.
Open a chain of post collapse survival skill schools.
Call the Geek Squad !!
Just read the Farage post and when I saw this I thought it said 'Call the Greek Squid!'....damn, I need more bourbon in this coffee.
They are just lucky Circut City is still not around.....but this shows the end of the Brick and mortar stores....long UPS and FED EX...short shopping center owners..
Long automated warehouse vending machines
Those robots will be doing donuts wondering where all the orders are. Amazon will follow brick and mortar as discretionary spending continues its slow death.
Explain this to me. The government posted better than expected retail sales ex-auto (yesterday).....expected 0.4% and came in at 0.7%.
Alright, tell me how JCP, Macy's & Best Buy are reporting terrible retail sales numbers and the media is reporting everything is just fine. There is an 1987 style crash lurking.
Obviously the rest of the retail sales numbers reported by companies will be good. /sarcasm.
The government would never lie.
Mega retailers are just now figuring out they have discounted themselves out of existance. There is such a massive oversupply of retailers in the country as compared to the populations buying ability. These same people ruthlessly ran mom and pops out of business for years citing increased efficiency and lower prices. Every day Bezos takes a little bite out of their asses and it's not going to stop anytime soon.
This is how Orwellian folks plan it to be. Cold, hard USSR style of course. Disneyland is indeed just for staying in that horror house. With some sports of course.
Summer of recovery VI
or is that Summer of recovery VII
My son got a $25 gift card to BBuy and all he could get were the cheapest ear phone for his was of time pod. Hardly anybody in the store. I was asked at least 6 times (from 6 different employees) if I needed help. I think they started getting mad when they saw I wasnt buying. I kind of enjoyed my annual visit.
My annual visit was about 2 weeks before Christmas on a mid-week night. Me and my buddy didn't buy any thing, but it was exciting to see 2 unsold PS4's sitting on the shelf.
That's pretty f'ng telling right there. There were actually in stock xbox ones and ps4s this holiday easily found on shelves. When the PS3, Wii and xbox 360 came out in 2006 there was little to no chance of ever finding one on a shelf. I think even people with money are disinterested in buying anything new at this point yet alone most of the people who are broke. I'll wait for the price reductions to start. As I said many times in 2007 and 2008 when this shitshow started: inflation in what you need and deflation in what you want.
Once again, the only things selling well are: Guns, Ammo, Lotto scratch-off tickets, Duck Dynasty T-shirts and Grand Theft Auto V. The retail conditions are very, very, very bad and the forecast is for much more pain. Scary times in retail.
Yes and don't think for a second that the people in charge aren't noticing that. Same thing goes for prepping supplies, tools, etc. Americans may have entered a self-fullfilling death spiral judging by their purchasing habits.
And pot sales are doing very well too. Forgot about that. States might as well start making cocaine legal. Why let the drug dealers suck all that revenue away. Plus, it might help ease the pain of the depression.
Maybe instead of cutting unemployment benefits for people out of work for years, they could increase the amount given out. Surely the long time unemployed will use the extra cash to buy electronics because there has been no inflation in food prices.
For real. I had a spirited conversation with someone on the TF a few weeks back who was claiming that his food prices have tracked CPI for the past few years. I told him he was full of shit as I am seeing at least a 50% increase on most consumables in the past 6 years. They are crafty about hiding it in many cases though by using smaller package sizes and less content but it is still there and still VERY noticeable. Anyone who claims there has not been a 50% increase in the cost of food since QE is a government/banker propaganda shill.
Hamburger prices are at an all time high. Pork prices will rise because of a pig virus.
I think what they do to suppress reported food prices is to not take into consideration that package sizes are continuously shrinking. So if your hamburger bun is now 10% smaller but the price is the same, there is no inflation in their view.
And the hamburger and hot dog rolls taste pretty bad now with a very weak texture. The rolls fall apart so easily. All the roll makers seemed to have changed the ingredients in the last few years. They are skimping on something to save costs. I only like the potato rolls now.
"Is Better Sell" ??
Boris, is that you?
The problem isn't just retail, what will happen to every f'ing town that had one of these useless retail centers build an armory size building that will now sit emtpy? How many teachers and police did they hire and promise eternal pensions to from the new found ratables they were collecting that will no longer be coming in?
\
Giant Dollar Stores. I've seen three closed BestBuys in recent months.
Even dollar stores will eventually begin to cannibilize each other eventually. Think of what will happen in developing nations if all that is selling is crap in dollar stores. Their pay will suffer and they will be getting paid even less.
The final destination before building collapse is giant indoor flea markets. Where old shit goes to die. Kind of fitting though.
pods
What used to be CompUSA in Reno is now a GoodWill store. Circuit City is still empty.
The next housing boom.
CompUSA to Goodwill transition here in Spokane too.
Though it did sit empty for a couple of years, other than the occasional Halloween costume store...
Amazon is killing everyone. Monopoly in building...
Prime is killing everyone. Amazon is DoA without prime. I don't know how they do it or what kind of agreements they get with the shippers but prime is pretty much unstoppable at this point. Same day delivery from Amazon will be the end for B&M stores.
Needed a new electric shaver the other day, found the one I wanted on Amazon and then checked local retailers. Wal-Mart had it for about the same price but none in stock. BB had it for $4 more.
mr. valentine has set the price
Worst support, terrible employee's that don't know a damn thing, horrendous over priced warrantees. Who the hell is shopping at best buy anymore? I quit years ago. I won't step foot in that store.
Okay, here is my issue with warranties as I see them.
If you, the seller, warranty your product, that means you are standing behind it. It is on the seller's dime. If I, the buyer pay for it, it is insurance, not a warranty.
As for Best Buy, you can't get me to go into one of those stores either. Only Mrs. pods has the power to do that, and since she rocks, she won't do that.
I'd rather go stand in line for the TSA. And I don't even fly anymore.
pods
I was in BBY returning my elderly Dad's LED TV, New Years Day morning and got him a new LG with surge protector and 4o dlrs back! Thks BBY. Glad they save the receipt.
Fuck Best Buy. Apply for a Obozobailout.
I'll use Overstock.
Fuck Amazon. I don't want to even know how much POMO/future inflation/taxes has been used to provide an eternal bid under that POS for all these years. Fuck Amazon.
They had great sales for 3 days during Black Friday. After that everything was full price and advertised in their weekly ad as being on some kind of special even though it was the usual full price. I'll wait for the BF sales prices to return before I buy what I want.
Is this a surprise... seeng as Best Buy functions as Amazon's free, brick-and-mortar showroom?
No they don't because they never have anything good in stock at BB which is one of the reasons they are dying on the vine. Their computer section is filled with 2-3 year old parts as are many other sections. About the only thing they are good for is consoles, mobile and marginal TV. The reason why many people buy at amazon is because they actually keep shit in STOCK. BB might get a lot more of my business if I could rely on them to carry what I want...
I love the story title on Marketwatch: Best Buy shares dive on surprise holiday-sales drop. It's a fucking SURPRISE! No, no it's not a surprise. It's only a surprise to low information people who listen to lying or incompetent analysts and the complicit main stream media. The depression deepens. We live in interesting times.
who are the biggest sucker holders/losers of BB stock?
HH Greg was a ghost town this Christmas as well. Days berfore Christmas and more sales people than customers.
Everything is bullish until it isn't.
HH who? Thought they went out of business 2 years ago. Another useless store that only sells last year's (at best) products.
WTF does HHGregg even sell? Flat screens, washing machines, and Walmart kitchen appliances. I was so disappointed when they finally opened their stores. We had pretty much nowhere to buy computer equipment since about a two years before CC went under...and we still don't.
And I thought that HP Laptop I bought the old lady for Christmas was going to put em over the top. Oh well.....
I haven't bought anything in brick and mortar stores for a while now, except perhaps local food, guns, ammo, juice for the car and condoms.
The fund managers, Hampton types don't shop at places like this. Already being dismissed by the $4,000 suit types. HH Greg was empty as well.
The problem with Best Buy is the atrocious service. I won't be going back.
I went in over the holidays to get a car stereo for my daughter and I was literally "pointed" to the next guy who would point me to someone else, while everyone- at least elevn people in blue shirts- stood there with their thumbs up their cell phones. One guy even looked up from his text long enough to say they were "understaffed" and no one was available to get the stereo from the back for me.
Finally, I was pointed back to the first guy I was pointed to, who reluctantly grabbed the keys to open the stereo equipment room in the back of the store while mumbling something about not being his department.
It was awful.
That's the problem with Best Buy, not the prices.
:/
I bought one Christmas gift at Target (cash), everything else UPS delivered to my front door. They are misinformed if they think I'm fighting crowds and traffic to shop in their stores.
Got any of those flea market strip-centers where you live?
Has anyone checked the penny stocks? Are people selling best beans, best buzz, or the like?
We're in a Depression. Everybody who needs (wants?) and can afford high-end electronics already has it. Accessories and consumables are available cheaper online. The trade in replacement products isn't big enough to sustain all the sources of such things. There's no compelling new product out there so manufacturers are just re-arranging options on existing technology and people who don't have more money than sense aren't going for it. I go through computers pretty quickly but I don't need any right now and I'm waiting for the odd-numbered Windows release before taking the plunge again. My teenaged son and his pals have no interest in the XBox One or the PS4. The iPod Touch everyone wants is the old, discontinued generation; not the new one where they gave you the choice of less for the same money, or the same features as the old generation version for $100 more.
No doubt BBY has issues to resolve, but the overall market is terrible for them and doesn't show signs of getting better.
Demographics. The younger people have school loans. Baby-boomers are retiring.
Dumping cable TV, cutting back.
More vacant storefronts coming.
Big Ones
So is discounting deflating prices of goods ? If so, are consumer goods prices are deflating ?
Does deflating consumer prices creates more deflation between competitiors?
Are we in a deflation?
YES WE ARE..........
Send us MOAR FEWD stamps Barry you fucking asshole - so we can buy more chinese electronic gadgets that we don't fucking need.
How does re-election feel Barry you fucking rotten bastard????? Was it worth driving the debt to 17.5T????
Rot in hell Barry!!!!
" As a result, our key priorities going into fiscal 2015 are: (1) to more quickly and more deeply lower our cost structure;..."
Translation: Downward pressure on salaries and wages etc...
It rises from $13 to $44 and slides back to $27
Still a 100% gain.. what did gold do? I guess time to layoff gold