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"Euphoric"-er

Tyler Durden's picture




 

US equity investors have not been this "euphoric" since the peak of the US equity market in 2000. As Citi's Tobias Levkovich notes, while he is longer-term a believer is the secular bull, one has to remember that there can be a secular run with substantive bumps along the way. No one questions the 1982-2000 equity bull market but there were some awful moments in that 18-year period including the stock market crash of 1987 and the sharp pullback in 1990 as well as in 1998.

 

With Citi's proprietary Panic/Euphoria model at levels that imply an 80% probability of a negative return in the next 12-months, Levkovich warns chasing the tape simply on the basis of momentum may not be a good strategy since expecting another 25%-30% appreciation in 2014 seems rather excessive.

 

Source: Citi

 

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Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:14 | 4341795 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!

 

MOAR FEWD stamps for everyone!!!!!!

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:50 | 4341877 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

The blue line on that chart is rising, so I would argue that you need to compare our current point back to the last time the line was rising and near the same value.  Based on that logic, that takes us back to mid 1998.  Looks like we might have another year or two of irrational exuberance.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 16:46 | 4342078 max2205
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Sgwiggley lines.....

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:55 | 4342441 CarrierWave
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But, but... none of that matters for those who want to profit from the rising markets.

Most people do not care about the above analysis and they are the ones who buy and push the markets higher.

That's where you want to be. Not follow the 'truth' that only few accept.

Stay on the sidelines and miss the rising markets

2014 will see the markets heading higher still courtesy of Central Banks support and also because it's an election year.

Does anyone really think that the Gov will allow the markets to drop more than 3-5% in an Election year?

Also, as long as Interest rates stay as low as they are, stocks will keep going higher.

The FED got the hang of how to keep the markets going higher and they are the ones at the Helm. Not the distinguished writers of the Articles posted on ZH.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 14:47 | 4356065 MeelionDollerBogus
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The last giant drop in 2007-8 was in an election year.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:15 | 4341797 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I knew that legalizing pot would have it's effect...

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:25 | 4341819 Rainman
Rainman's picture

don't blame the choom.....stoners are waaaay too lazy to look for a 'buy' button.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:17 | 4341801 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

25-30% is a bit much. 15% seems about right.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:55 | 4341890 NoDebt
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Pessimist.  I already bought a new house and car based on the assumption my investments will return 25%/yr. over the next few years.  So, as you can see, it HAS to keep going up.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 17:45 | 4342245 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

yeah, debt,,,and I planted a tree in the back yard knowin' it'll climb to Mars and Jupiter, even Neptune. What's 25%?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 17:46 | 4342246 Greenskeeper_Carl
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Just wait for the yellen un-taper. Then the markets will hit the coveted euphoric-ist level. Ludacris speed for lord helmet.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:18 | 4341802 LawsofPhysics
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Hurray, happy days are here again!  Nice work everyone!  however, if you don't mind, I am going to stand over here...

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:18 | 4341803 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

It is all founded on the belief that the Federal Reserve can and will keep manipulating stocks higher by money printing. This is rational thought given history. Myself, I have missed this entire bull market based on the fundamentals of the economy, but I now know the Fed is what matters, not the real economy. History has proven this to be true.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:22 | 4341812 B.J. Worthy
B.J. Worthy's picture

All is well.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:32 | 4341839 Dr. Engali
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My proprietary fed model says..BTFD.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:35 | 4341846 q99x2
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Up my FAFSA yellen M'Fer.

Bitcoin going down: Last:$874.60

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 15:57 | 4341897 Cannon Fodder
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Couldn't the Fed printing trillions of dollars be viewed as hyper-inflationary - thus couldn't the stock market follow the Zimbabwa stock market approach and just keep going up regardless of the actual economy? Why can't it just go to 30k? 50k? If there is no limit to printing money and the fed just keeps putting money out there, why won't it go up, even if we are all out of jobs???

I truely don't understand how the market can just keep going up every day....

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 16:27 | 4342002 Mark123
Mark123's picture

In a world where central banks can create unlimited debt without collateral, and they have control all governments the world over, the sky is the limit.

Old measures, rules etc no longer are relevant.  The ONLY thing that will stop the game is a currency collapse.  And guess who owns all the gold?  The same crooked banks.  They win no matter what. 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:03 | 4342286 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Dead nuts on, Mark.++

 

'Ol Yeller don't need no stinkin' laws. She's the One. Kings kneel at her feet.

 

How in hell did it ever get like this? Presidents that rule by decree, legislators that sell out national sovereignty, spy agencies turned inward on the people, droning of world civilians as everyday routine, cops armed like Special Forces units. WTF! Got Bunker? Or Pass Port?

 

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 14:37 | 4356034 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

not all of it.
So long as some people own enough for their own needs they'll be fine.
The rest refuse: they are sheep. What makes a tyrannical leader is a sheep populace that DEMANDS a tyrannical leader.

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