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Terrifying Technicals: This Chartist Predicts An Anti-Fed Revulsion, And A Plunge In The S&P To 450

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Walter J. Zimmermann Jr. of United-ICAP,

"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences."

- Robert Louis Stevenson

Main Points

1. History is written as much by the unforeseen consequences of key events as by the events themselves. We prefer not to think in these terms, but history clearly reveals that the adverse consequences of well intended efforts often have a much more dramatic and lasting impact than the original efforts themselves.

2. In fact history suggests a law of adverse consequences where the more insistent and forceful the well intended effort, the more dramatic, powerful and harmful the blowback. In simple terms, attempts to force the world to improve have always ended badly.

3. This law of adverse consequences is a very common phenomena in medicine and is known by the euphemism of ‘side effects’. Adverse drug reactions to prescribed medications are the fourth leading killer in America, right after heart disease, cancer, and stroke. However this expression of the law of unintended consequences gets even less press than its expressions in human history. Neither is a popular topic.

4. One could easily write several volumes of history focused exclusively on the unwelcome repercussions from otherwise well-intended efforts. However as this is a subject that we would all rather avoid I suspect it would be a very difficult book to market.

5. Instead of a book I have opted for two pages of examples. The present situation strongly suggests that the high risk of unexpected blowback from current economic policies are much more deserving of our full attention than the past history of unwelcome consequences.

6. QE has already created what is arguably the most bullish market sentiment in history. And that extreme bullish sentiment has already driven most stock indices to new all time highs. So now would be a good time for some sober reflections on what could go wrong.

7. One sector that seems dangerously poised to go badly wrong are the junk and emerging bond markets. What will happen when Treasuries start yielding the same rates as previously issued junk debt? A massive exodus will happen. Junk bonds and emerging market debt will become a disaster area.

8. We already know how wildly successful Fed stimulus has been at creating speculative bubbles. Fed inflated bubbles that have already burst include a Dot-Com bubble, a credit bubble, a real estate bubble, and a commodity market bubble. The biggest bubble of them all is still inflating. That would be this stock market bubble.

9. There are now fewer banks than ever before in modern history. And the biggest banks are larger than ever before in history. The war against ‘too big to fail’ was lost before it began. Fewer, bigger banks means a more fragile financial system.

10. The worst of the bullish sentiment extremes of previous major stock market peaks have all returned. Analysts are positively gushing with ebullience. There is a competition to see who can come up with the highest targets for the various stock indices. No one sees any downside risk. All are confident that the Fed can and will fix anything. This is a situation ripe for adverse consequences. This is a market where blowback will be synonymous with blind-sided. No one will prepare for what they cannot see coming.

Comparing Costs: Major US Wars versus Quantitative Easing

The chart above suggests that the magnitude of the Federal Reserve economic stimulus program is only comparable to previous major war efforts. The dollar costs plotted here bears that out.

War Costs

All of the war costs on the previous page were taken from one report dated 29 June 2010. That report was prepared by Stephen Dagget at the Congressional Research Service. I adjusted his numbers to 2013 dollars. You can find his report in PDF format on-line. However some further comments may be useful here.

Civil War

The Civil War number combines the Northern or Union costs and the Southern or Confederate costs. In 2011 dollars the price of waging the war for the Union was $59.6 billion dollars and $20.1 billion for the Confederacy. I simply added these two numbers and then converted to 2013 dollars.

Post 9/11 Wars

Here I combined the costs of the Persian Gulf war, and Iraq war, and the war in Afghanistan into one category and then adjusted to 2013 dollars.

Sending a Man to the Moon

I thought it would be interesting to compare the costs of sending a man to the moon to the costs of QE. Most references to the cost of putting a man on the Moon only cite the Apollo project. But of course that is very wrong. Apollo arose from Gemini which grew out of Mercury. So for the true cost of sending a man to the Moon I included all costs for the Mercury missions, the Gemini program, the Lunar probes, the Apollo capsules, the Saturn V rockets, and the Lunar Modules. I relied on numbers gathered from NASA by the Artemis Project. I then converted those costs to 2013 dollars.

World War II versus Quantitative Easing

WW II

World War II transformed the United States from a sleepy agricultural enterprise into the world’s dominant economic super-power, and defeated both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan at the same time. It may seem entirely callous to calculate US Dollar costs for a war that claimed 15,000,000 battle deaths, 25,000,000 battle wounded, and civilian deaths that exceeded 45,000,000 but there is a point to this exercise.

The second world war defeated the strategy of geographical conquest through militarism as a national policy. Of course WW II had it’s own undesirable blowback as anything on this gigantic a scale would. However it seems pretty clear that replacing fascism and militarism with democracy was a step of progress for mankind.

WW II and QE

Since the 1950’s many have argued that it took World War II to pull the world out of the Great Depression. As a life-long student of the Great Depression Bernanke must be aware of this debate. In terms of the dollar amounts involved, World War Two is the only project comparable in size to QE. So it seems reasonable to assume that Bernanke’s goal here is to have QE fulfill the economic role of a World War Three; a war-free method of pulling the world out of the Great Recession. However human history suggests that the sheer magnitude and forced nature of the QE program all but ensures serious, unexpected and adverse consequences.

Learning from History

I am not bearish on the human race. When I read history I see things getting better. When I read history I find the slow replacement of brutality with compassion. When I read history I find the long term trend to be the replacement of centralized authority with local self-determination. And I find that every single effort to fight these long term trends has failed. And as history continues to unfold the efforts to fight these trends tends to fail more quickly, more dramatically, and more decisively.

There is an ancient Chinese proverb that states “Plan too far ahead and nature will seem to resist.” That aphorism definitely resonates with my experience and observations. If there is something inherent in the flow of time that unfolds an improvement in the human condition, then there is also something in the nature of things that resists the application of force, whether well intended or not.

If all of the above is an accurate accounting of things, then the key issue for policy makers is finding the fine line that separates supporting the natural flow of human evolution from attempting to force change. The former will help while the later will end badly. The question today has to do with Quantitative Easing. Is QE a gentle nurturing of economic evolution or is it the next doomed attempt to force things to get better? The QE program is so enormous, and relentless, and insistent, that I fear it is the later. And if QE is a huge attempt to force the economy to improve, than we had better start bracing for the blowback.

QE: the blowback to come

What kind of blowback should we prepare for? The lesson of history is that trying to force things to get better does not merely create unwelcome repercussions. It does not merely slow the pace of natural evolution. Attempts to enforce a certain outcome always appears to create the opposite effect. We do not find a law of adverse consequences. We find a law of opposite impacts.

Let us review the sample examples from the previous charts. Every effort to jam an ideology or a plan down the throat of the world only creates the opposite of the intended effect. I would maintain that this is one of the few lessons from history that can be relied on.

If the Federal Reserve is trying to force feed us prosperity then the inevitable blowback will be adversity. If the Fed is trying to compel the most dramatic economic recovery in history, then the blowback may well be the deepest depression in history. If the Fed is trying to enforce confidence and optimism then the blowback will be fear and despair. If the Fed is trying to force consumers to spend then the blowback will be a collapse in consumer confidence.

I sincerely hope that I am completely wrong here, that I am missing something, that there is a flaw in my logic. However until I can locate such a flaw I must trust the technical case for treating this Fed force-fed rally in the stock market as something that will end badly.

Here's how it plays out...

 

 

 


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Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:38 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Meh.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:40 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Meh, too.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Interesting stuff but

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:56 | Link to Comment CarrierWave
CarrierWave's picture

But, but... none of that matters for those who want to profit from the rising markets.

Most people do not care about the above analysis and they are the ones who buy and push the markets higher.

That's where you want to be. Not follow the 'truth' that only few accept.

Stay on the sidelines and miss the rising markets

2014 will see the markets heading higher still courtesy of Central Banks support and also because it's an election year.

Does anyone really think that the Gov will allow the markets to drop more than 3-5% in an Election year?

Also, as long as Interest rates stay as low as they are, stocks will keep going higher.

The FED got the hang of how to keep the markets going higher and they are the ones at the Helm. Not the distinguished writers of the Articles posted on ZH.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Time to head for the pub.

All the good looking ones usually show up at 2:30am

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

How much to bailout Goldman this time?

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:49 | Link to Comment Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

 

 

Looks like about 666 . . .

 

 . . . Sounds about right for the Squid and his pal the Anti-Christ, don't you think?

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:21 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The Fed won't stop and the consequences won't happen for a long time.  Seriously.  Who EXACTLY is going to stop the central bank from doing whatever the fuck it feels like?  They are giving money to politicians,  keeping people on food stamps, and buying the government.  All those worthless mortgage backed securities are slices of America and the banks will pretty much own everything, soon enough.

Google: cursing fish cafepress

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:34 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Indeed. ZH never, ever learns. Consequences are some other guys problem. Do you honestly believe the rich are going to forfeit wealth for the greater good? They're praying for hyper inflation... They want stocks up another 150%.... from here. Who cares if families will starve? They only care about 1 thing.. Staying on top. That is the only holy grail. Consequences? Since when did people start getting punished for doing the wrong thing?

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 00:01 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You two go ahead and bend over to lick the boot of your oppressors if that's what floats your boat.  We will continue mocking them, exposing them for the little girly-men that they are.....riding on the coat-tails of their admittedly gigantic forebears....

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 05:29 | Link to Comment Drifter
Drifter's picture

Mocking them?  Exposing them?  What has that accomplished?  Answer:  Nothing.

99% of people don't care what politicians and banksters do.  99% of people don't even know what QE is, and don't care what it is.

So go ahead, mock and expose all you want.  You might as well be talking to a wall for all the good it will do.  

And no, there won't be a stock market crash.  Becuase there won't be a bond market crash.  Because they're doing QE.   And no, QE won't stop.

The crash will be in the currency.   USD will lose reserve status and drop rapidly from there.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 11:06 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

none of that matters for those who want to profit from the rising markets.

 

Well OK then.....but at the same time....I wouldn't get too cocky.

 

The year was 2014.....when we finally figured out the fake prosperity would go on forever.....even though a record number of people didn't have jobs.

 

We're working on that last part.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Drifter
Drifter's picture

Who is working on that last part?   Answer: Nobody. 

They don't care about the economy, jobs, nothing. 

Bash Hitler all you want.   He was a nationalist.  He cared about Germany.  He reformed their currency and made it strong again.  He put people to work and  rebuilt their economy after bankers destroyed it. 

None of that is happening in America.  Fed is destroying the dollar to enrich bankers, with govt's approval.  They're looting the economy, not rebuilding it.

That's how I know we're approaching the end of America.  It's just a matter of time, how long they can keep looting before the economy dies completely.

 

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 15:24 | Link to Comment HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Jesus, you're taking Hitler's side?

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 15:58 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I't not a question of taking Hitler's "side". It's a fact that his controlled economy in Germany utterly defeated the great depression and that Germany came completely out of the depression, whilst Great Britain and the US went on, and on, and on, mired in depression. Hopefully you're adult enough to understand that this remarkable fact, which is little know, is separate from his utterly mad murders and repressions. Recognizing the existence of the one fact does not condone or excuse any of the almost limitless evil caused by this person.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Welder
Welder's picture

What murders ? You mean the Holohoax ?

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 00:20 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Mehahememehmehmeh.

 

Most fail to learn, like Zimmerman, that there is a floor to the "pain" the banksters are willingto inflict. At SPX 1021ish they will announce a Fed direct stock/corporate/muni bond buying program along with a Federal government absorbtion of all retirement plans on a "voluntary" basis.

 

The floor and game is in. The key is knowing when to sell the ultra short ETFs to cash out and flee.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 02:40 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Intel Corp plans to reduce its global workforce of 107,000 by about 5 percent this year as the chipmaker, struggling with falling personal-computer sales, shifts focus to faster-growing areas, a company spokesman said on Friday.

The announcement, equivalent to over 5,000 positions, comes a day after Intel posted a fourth-quarter earnings report that did little to dispel concerns about a slowing PC industry.

 

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20140117&i...

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:09 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Economies of scale in reverse...  Eventually the shit will cost a LOT more, and that elevated cost will result in even less "demand"...

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 05:00 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

NSA blowback

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 19:52 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Ah, probably only part-time, less than minimum wage jobs. What's the big deal?  More profits for the shareholders!

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 07:41 | Link to Comment monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Got a date & time on that Galt? ;)

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:39 | Link to Comment BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Oh, I don't know, maybe somneone hunts dowen the members of the Fed Reserve one by one.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 08:46 | Link to Comment realWhiteNight123129
realWhiteNight123129's picture

Who is going to stop them? Themselves. The idea that a central bank can not blow is not supported by many historical cases... 

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 14:11 | Link to Comment moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Seriously.  Who EXACTLY is going to stop the central bank from doing whatever the fuck it feels like?"

 

It isn't so much who, as it is what.  1+1 ALWAYS = 2.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:00 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:26 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have grave doubts that technical analysis even works at all.  That said, the prediction is scary because of the HUGE debts that he well illustrates.  Look how much the QEs cost...

Gold is something that will help balance a portfolio if the S&P cracks big time.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:43 | Link to Comment BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

I think we're all looking in the wrong place. There probably isn't going to be a stock market crash but a societal collapse and war. When that happens no one is going to give a flying fuck about the number that is the NASDAQ or DOW JONES . . . . . . no one will give a flying fuck. This is the shock that is needed to get us all to pull our heads out of our collective asses and start appreciating the important things in life like clean air, clean water, untainted food, a thriving ecosystem, family and friends.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:11 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

There it is!

The relevance of something is only as good as the size of participation, the audience.  If folks stop showing up at the Box Office then the movie ain't going to play for much longer...

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 07:36 | Link to Comment BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

It's ironic that we are the ones keeping this shit going - the royal "we" I mean.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 08:33 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Thanks for taking credit....but I think it's our grandkids that are actually keeping this going.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 07:43 | Link to Comment monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Sounds a little bearish to me

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Livingstrong
Livingstrong's picture

Well said! The only thing I´m not looking forward to is war, the economic/societal collapse....bring it on, I´m ready/prepared!

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 13:54 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Not as prepared as you think you are.  A wave covers the entire beach.

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 20:19 | Link to Comment indygo55
indygo55's picture

"Does anyone really think that the Gov will allow the markets to drop more than 3-5% in an Election year?"

 

Uh yeah! Wasn't the last one in 2008 an election year? Duh!!

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Mr. Market did not do too well in 1932 either.

 

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 22:47 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

This is great. ..the Fed broke or got rid of the economic cycle. ....oh wait I heard that before

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:45 | Link to Comment BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

A bullet in the heads of these assholes would be far too a compassionate future for the greed and destruction they reap.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:50 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

You meant sow, right? Reaping is later.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 01:47 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Bunch of reapists...

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:00 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

like the rising markets of 2006-2009? repeat? Any takers?

Gov was influencing markets decades before that with stimulus & right into the housing boom, so why did markets crash down to 2009 lows? Why? An accident? Stopped leaning on control-P & accidentally crashed the server running GOFO & LIBOR scripts for what numbers to put into the manipulation calls?

Too much porn at the SEC? What was it?

You really don't get it.
Every transaction is being watched. As soon as your take in the market is big enough to hurt you the rigging will change in that moment to hurt you.
It's like paying someone $100 bills to wave their face or their cock at an angry alligator and when you think you can get rich because you never get bit - once you & your buddies are all in - someone workin' for da-boss steps up behind you and KICKS you forward, you and all your buddies.
You really gonna fall for that?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:49 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

crashes are engineered and well controlled or they wouldn't happen

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 00:53 | Link to Comment Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

remember the PPT?  they managed to stave off the big crash after bear sterns, but they didnt have the power and influence to stop the post lehman plunge.

'2 hours away from the global banking system freezing up in mutual mistrust' - they were the Fed memos from the hours before they announced QE1

they are not omnipotent. they are merely potent

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 03:02 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

stave off? It looked like a big crash to me. That crash in % terms and in terms of break-evens vs prior years adjusted for any level of inflation you might propose is truth, far defeated the 1987 crash.

They didn't stave it off. They caused it, profited from being short & profited from selling garbage at all time high prices using fraud.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:48 | Link to Comment BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Hate to admit it, but has a number of points. IF one believes in manipulation can overcome. Sorry though sport, that is not the basis on which i "invest". Not really interested in how people will follow herds. May lose some money in the process. But I will never be convinced that I should do ANYTHING because of something that is ARTIFICIAL has my back.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Black-Man
Black-Man's picture

I guess 2008 wasn't an election year?

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 13:39 | Link to Comment moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Does anyone really think that the Gov will allow the markets to drop more than 3-5% in an Election year?"

 

See 2008.  Crashed BIG during an election year.

 

"The FED got the hang of how to keep the markets going higher and they are the ones at the Helm."

The FED has also gotten the hang of how to crash markets. 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:58 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Count me in for Meh. I am long the market and bearish the human race.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:19 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

Perfect response.  He sees less centralization and less brutality over history? He should get his eyes checked

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 09:26 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I am long the market and bearish the human race.

 

You should apply for a gig on CNBC.....they really care about people and will have you thinking differently in no time.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Fonz. Where has Kito been? I haven't seen him post for a long time. Did he join EKM in the abyss?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 20:49 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Hey Doc, he is around. I catch up with him offline. I think he has made the decision that he's better off commenting less and focusing on other stuff. but he pops on here now and then.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:05 | Link to Comment vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

Anyone know where McMolotov went?

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 08:04 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Last I heard he was headed to Galt's Gulch.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 01:25 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

Kito and McMolotov are the proud parents of a new chocolate lab puppy and are taking turns breast feeding......LOL

 

come on we miss you guys, get off the tit!!

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 07:32 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

Count me in for Meh. I am long the market and bearish the human race.

Are you standing alone in front of the pack of wolves and say "Meh"? Or,

are you standing next to the flocks of humans being pushed off the cliff and say "Meh"?

I chose Meh 3...

get the heck out.

 

CD has a nice gold fish act in his piece today.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

But, But, But

 

Satans from Fed and other CBs around the world never produced so much confetty in history...

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 07:25 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

Are you certain?

Meh !

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:41 | Link to Comment frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

I think a Complete, but brief collapse to 450 is possible. But it just won't stay there that long.
The Fed could'nt stop some stocks from falling from $ 75.15 to a low of .01 in the Flash Crash. They learned how to slow THAT Problem down only after it happened. They didn't know Lehman would Freeze All Credit until after it happened.
The Market Will Crash Devastatingly and briefly by something that they have NO IDEA about.
And then......they'll fix it.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 09:08 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Anything is possible, but if it crashes to 450 there will be no fixing anything for a long, long time.  Once the feeding frenzy starts it will spread across borders and oceans. At that level there will be civil unrest, an unleashing of the National Guards and a period of time where people will hunker down. It is in this stasis period where people will decide whether or not a revolution is needed. This will trigger another series of convulsions. 

We live in interesting times. We went over the cliff months and months ago. The impact is coming up.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 16:08 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I agree with your post. I also like the article itself.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

Frozen IcQb: Interesting stuff but

 

what if the unintended consequences were the real objectives. Social engineering at finest.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 22:47 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Meh, three

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 15:49 | Link to Comment algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Couldn't we just as well say, that the authors reading of a bunch of squiggly lines on a graph and extrapolating a future result from it, similar to Bernanke's read and interpretation of QE and extrapolating a future result from it? 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Jannn
Jannn's picture

Spectacular Gold Demand (79 Tons) on SGE in Week 2, 2014

 

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/spectacular-gold-demand-79-tons-sge-week-2-2014

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:53 | Link to Comment Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

I love the straight blue line, drawn from top to bottom, in this graph: 

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2...

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:44 | Link to Comment Laughing Stock
Laughing Stock's picture

No shit

Like the Lazlo Birini ruler "gone bad"

What a stupid fucking post

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

"However it seems pretty clear that replacing fascism and militarism with democracy was a step of progress for mankind."

 

Where the fuck did that ever happen? The USA is more fascist and militaristic than just about any nation in history.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 22:23 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

Sure, junk me, but the Western world hasn't been this militaristic and fascist since the Roman empire. Ever heard of NATO?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 22:28 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Obama doesn't call it Socialism; he doesn't call it Communism, he doesn't call it Fascism. He calls it Change.

Political movements that seek to deceive use any word they can to mask their true intentions. but there is one word that describes the loss of liberty. And that is tyranny. It can be a monarch, it can be a communist, it can be a fascist or it can be a parliament which does not represent the people. All roads of these deceivers lead to totalitarianism.

The State can control as in Communism, but it is the tyrants who are controlling the State.

All great leaders,” wrote Saul Alinsky in Rules for Radicals,, “invoked ‘moral principles’ to cover naked self-interest in the clothing of ‘freedom,’ ‘equality of mankind,’ ‘a law higher than man-made law,’ and so on.” In short: “All effective actions require the passport of morality.”

This tactic of framing one’s objectives in the rhetoric of morality, says author John Perazzo, precisely paralleled a communist device for deception known as “Aesopian language,” which J. Edgar Hoover described as follows:

“Nearly everyone is familiar with the fables of Aesop…. Often the point of the story is not directly stated but must be inferred by the reader. This is a ‘roundabout’ presentation. Lenin and his associates before 1917, while living in exile, made frequent use of ‘Aesopianism.’ Much of their propaganda was written in a ‘roundabout’ and elusive style to pass severe Czarist censorship. They desired revolution but could not say so. They had to resort to hints, theoretical discussions, even substituting words, which, through fooling the censor, were understood by the ‘initiated,’ that is, individuals trained in [Communist] Party terminology….

“The word ‘democracy’ is one of the communists’ favorite Aesopian terms. They say they favor democracy, that communism will bring the fullest democracy in the history of mankind. But, to the communists, democracy does not mean free speech, free elections, or the right of minorities to exist. Democracy means the domination of the communist state, the complete supremacy of the Party. The greater the communist control, the more ‘democracy.’ ‘Full democracy,’ to the communist, will come only when all noncommunist opposition is liquidated.

“Such expressions as ‘democracy,’ ‘equality,’ ‘freedom,’ and ‘justice’ are merely the Party’s Aesopian devices to impress noncommunists.
Communists … clothe themselves with everything good, noble, and inspiring to exploit those ideals to their own advantage.” (J. Edgar Hoover, Masters of Deceit, pp. 101-102.)

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:50 | Link to Comment BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

That claim by Obama is ironically the most truthful thing he's said. By the time his banking catrel is finished with the US citizerns loose change is all they are going to have left.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 00:43 | Link to Comment TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

JR...very well said.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:17 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"Communists … clothe themselves with everything good, noble, and inspiring to exploit those ideals to their own advantage.” (J. Edgar Hoover, Masters of Deceit, pp. 101-102.)"

Um, yeah, ONLY "communists"...

Clue: It's about POWER.  PERIOD.

I get so tired of folks trying to paint with tags in order to produce emotional knee-jerking (that ALWAYS distracts from the REAL core).

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture

This space intentionally left blank.

 


Sat, 01/18/2014 - 16:26 | Link to Comment TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Look at that, Obama downvoted you!

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:15 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

You beat me on posting this!  It's the one thing that I went "WTF?"

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 20:27 | Link to Comment tempo
tempo's picture

What if central bank stimulus is a zero sum game with low rates helping the front end but the lower long term interest income now depressing economic activity. The FED can't allow rates to increase or the housing and stock market will collapse. So more QE is very unlikely, the effect of past QE is costing jobs and economic activity and the FED is backed into a corner. Whether its a slow or quick death is the question.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:39 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

Right, because I'm sure the Fed would just stand by as the S&P drops 75%. Chartist? What a load of shit.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:42 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

QE for ever and ever and ever?

Step in and do what?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:48 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

Look at 2008, banks were bailed out and the start of QE. Everyone in the market knows they (US Gov) will not let a big financial institution fail. Not to mention, if economic fundamentals get worse they'll increase QE.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:21 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

At some point they will have to let it crash again, so Wall Street can clear the sheeple's chips off the table again, so they can re-institute QE again.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 20:55 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

or they could just nationalize each bank right before it fails.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:27 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

No need, the banks are the government.

Governments have been "Banksterized".

Now all that's left is to bleed remaining assets out of the middle class.

We will be back to the Middle Ages before you know it.

Well on our way, and with a police state?

"Mission Accomplished" for the elites.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:33 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What?

Is someone under the impression that the government is not completely run by the big Banks and the MIC?

C'mon, look a little deeper and do a little thinking, this is the New Rome!

http://www.opensecrets.org/

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:38 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

there is a need: one can be bailed in/out one can't.
That which is part of the tax-system directly and/or Federal reserve 100% COMPLETELY doesn't get a bail in or a bail out.
It's important.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:48 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Well, look at it this way:

They work together; the .gov can always tax you more, confiscate your assets (IRS), default on debt, outlaw precious metals, funnel money to the IMF, foreign banks, foreign governments, do currency swaps, lend money to the TBTF banks at 0.05% interest at the back door.

The big banks can always do bail-in's, go bankrupt and cry "Wolf" and have a Hank Paulson or other ex.- G.S. shill scare the CONgress Critters into throwing more taxpayer future obligations (money/debt/serfdom) onto the balance sheets of the TBTF Banks/Insurers/Corporations.

The law is dead, the free markets are dead, The Constitution is dead, Liberty is being blindfolded and raped in a back alley somewhere.

If you believe that there is any semblance of law and order or regulation or rules in Mordor on the Potomac you possess a delusion that I wish I still possessed so at least I coud carry on for one more day/year/decade without thinking that every good thing I did would be countered by a gutless/soul-less/morally deprived Harpie/Warlock from an Ivy League school of your choice.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

The Elizabeth Warrens and Barack Obamas of the parasitical plundering class, in addition to saying "you didn't build that", will say "you didn't earn that (increase in your IRA/401K)", and then proceed to seize a fat share (or exercise total control over your account) which thay will call your obligation under the social contract that you didn't sign.

Kinda like the good old windfall profits tax.  QE storm raged, accounts gained, time to return ill-gotten gains to the state.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 03:02 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I'm not American so from the other side of the border I can see pretty clearly what's happening in Mordor and why it's so evil. I was never brainwashed with some insane level of "go America" propaganda to blind me to logic.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Wait What
Wait What's picture

c'm on angie. step in and buy everything. not that hard. when the Fed owns everything, then it will finally be out of 'bullets.' til then, to a Fed with a QE hammer, everything looks like a nail to be bought.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:22 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Years ago I'd hypothesized that the Fed was going to suck up all the bad debt and then implode.  I believe, however, that there's a tipping point as to how much it can suck up before it really doesn't matter anymore and that most have turned and walked away.

But, of course, the wealthy don't like having the value of their assets crushed, so inflation is their "shield."

Most anything works, until it doesn't...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

True.

What most here are missing is that the author is simply saying that  Fed has pushed so far "unnaturally" that the reversion back to a "natural" course will be far more painful had they not stepped in at all.

Blowback is obviously a real phenomenon and it won't take much for the American consumer to really crawl into a hole and not come out for many, many moons.  With nothing but air under these markets, the complete loss of confidence in the Fed's omnipotence would deal a wrenching blow not only to the American stock market but also have a trickle-on effect on a massive, global scale.

How much pain to equity markets will the shock of this realisation have? Certainly, a lot.  But a fall to 444 may be a little much.

:D

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:18 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"Step in and do what?"

Nailed it! (there is ZERO that they can do, and have ever done [other than help a handful of folks become richer])

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 01:41 | Link to Comment indygo55
indygo55's picture

"Right, because I'm sure the Fed would just stand by as the S&P drops 75%."

 

Why not? That's what they are so good at doing. Then buy the whole thing up at pennies on the dollar. WTF! Didn't Rothchild do that in the early 1800's with the Nepolean defeat on the London bond market? This is what they do.

 

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:26 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

BUT!  Consider what they are buying.  And, consider who future buyers might be (when nearly all consumers are toast until the end of time).

Yeah, it's been done in the past, but this time there are no new markets to open up and dump on.

The Fed will suck as much up as they can and then implode.  I could make the argument that this is a better way to go than to have more of the debt held by foreign interests.  Debt jubilee.  There is no other way out...  And when that time should come it doesn't magically mean that folks will be running around buying up stuff real cheap because everyone's broke (and out of "jobs").

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:41 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

And what black swan will emerge as the culpret.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:46 | Link to Comment denverdolomte
denverdolomte's picture

A Yellen / Bernanke / Greenspam sex tape release late between late 2014 - mid 2015 

 

/sarc

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Four chan
Four chan's picture

Barf.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:12 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

And animal rights groups protest the fed head as well as the former fed heads for the mistreated animals.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 00:29 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

It's different this time

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 08:57 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Who could have seen it coming?

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 09:30 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OK....is the universe is playing a little trick on me with this double post....or did I just hit the submit button twiice?

 

Maybe it's just deja vous....all over again.

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Also, my rug was stolen.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:29 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

That rug really tied the room together, did it not?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

I didn't watch my buddies lay face down in the mud in 'nam so that this whore could print more money.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 08:25 | Link to Comment blown income
blown income's picture

Need that toe

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 09:04 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I didn't watch my buddies lay face down in the mud in 'nam so that this whore could print more money.

 

Consider it to be a bonus. Oh, and the whole socialist thing you were fighting against.....don't look now.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Mmmmm, chart porn....

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:45 | Link to Comment Usura
Usura's picture

And if the FED is in fact pursuing a voracious, self-serving scheme to advance the interests of that certain group which may not be named, then what is to be expected?  Complete desctruction of the interests of that group?  Bankers floating face down in canals?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

They flee to other countries.  Or they hide in bunkers.  Best believe they who can't be named won't be named while the masses... do what? Loot and pillage?  Band together to fight a common enemy? I like option 2 but I know. it's going to be option 1 in some areas of the countries. 

Asses and elbows at that time.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:46 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Do I hear the fat lady a singing?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 23:15 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

She's not in charge of Fed yet.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:50 | Link to Comment sixsigma cygnus...
sixsigma cygnusatratus's picture

Next step:  When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another...

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:47 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

If this means bankers, brokers and lawyers jumping out of tall buildings, then the sooner the better.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:29 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Jobs works programs to ensure that there's no "soft" pot holes?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:49 | Link to Comment fwaynemartin
fwaynemartin's picture

Should I throw it all in FTW then (until March)? 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:49 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

THAT would wipe the smarmy little smile from their faces.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:52 | Link to Comment shepherd
shepherd's picture

"When I read history I see things getting better."

Maybe if you are a homosexual. Or black. Or a Jew. Otherwise you're just in denial.

 

 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:45 | Link to Comment Laughing Stock
Laughing Stock's picture

What about a black jewish homo?

 

Say whaaaaatttt?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:53 | Link to Comment tunaman4u2
tunaman4u2's picture

Its this kinda of crap that makes the website look bad.

If you want to post Dow 36k & a hyperinflationary end, fine... thats MUCH more likely then the Fed standing pat & the market going straight down to 450 on NOTHING.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:37 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I would figure that the graph would look a bit like what was caught on tape at Volgograd (I didn't read/watch, as I think I've got a good idea what happens when human flesh and explosives mix):


Up Close And Personal: Volgograd Suicide Bomber Moment Of Detonation Caught On Tape

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-17/close-and-personal-volgograd-su...

Hard UP or Hard DOWN, either results in crack-up.  And at that time it really matters little whether the explosion happens via UP or DOWN.  Further, trying to get IN and then OUT before the explosion is only going to get dicier.  I'd figure it's better to get distance from all of it...

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So its completely possible for it to go straight up but not straight down? Or are you just complaining because he didn't put any "squiggles" in the line?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Pee Wee
Pee Wee's picture

All forbid that the United States does something progressive, like, say put a man on the moon.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 00:39 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

All forbid that the Germans put a man on the moon.

Fixed it for you.

Honorable mention for Neil Armstrong's pilot capabilities especially landing the LEM on manual.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:39 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Nazi Aeronautics and Space Administration

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:55 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The Fed knows that "it will end badly", that is why they are making sure that it does not end.


Fri, 01/17/2014 - 22:21 | Link to Comment mightydog
mightydog's picture

Actually, there is a good technical argument for S&P 450 or at least S&P 500 factoring in inflation. As far as the Fed not allowing this to end badly. The fact that this is now the mantra not just on MSM sites now but also on ZH, probably implies that it will end badly. The Fed could care less if the market ultimately goes to 450. As long as the important people see it coming and they get out, all is well with wall street which is the Fed's main customer.

Smart moeny is already exiting to prepare to buy in when all of the bagholders lose it all. Dumb money is flowing in based on the presmise that that this will never end. That is what makes this a bubble. If the Fed was so all powerful and dedicated to a never-ending rising market, how did it manage to collapse in 2008?

Hyper-inflation requires money velocity, excess reserves are totally deflationary if they sit and do nothing and the Fed has racked up a huge balance sheet that has to be resolved, so money printing has not actually happened unless they decide to monetize the debt. Hyperinfaltion may be coming but only after a big deflationary cleanse. The main thing that we can count on is wealth disparity to increase and that will be magnified even more with a deflationary stock market crash followed by hyper-inflation rather than going from our current state to hyperinflation without a correction.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:47 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"Smart moeny is already exiting to prepare to buy in when all of the bagholders lose it all."

Smart, money... just seems oxymoronic to me.

I'm thinking that, sans viable consumers (and no more new markets to exploit/dump on) all those buying shit up are going to be stuck with it.  Do you want to hold real estate when people can't afford to buy or rent (no jobs)?  Equities, when people can't afford to buy the shit (no jobs)?

"Hyperinfaltion may be coming but only after a big deflationary cleanse."

That "cleanse" is going to be more like a big diarrheal crap-out death, we blow out the bottom and there's no "up-swing."

One thing seems pretty clear, and that's that when the trigger happens death will come quickly...

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Personally I would rather be holding real estate than paper. Everything will get hit in a collapse, but some will be worse than others, right? The key is having assets unencumbered and retaining some type of tangible value, which could be property or even knowledge. Someone who knows how to grow things could be the richest man in town. I have always argued against owning stocks even though I know lots of people are making money on them. I just don't want to be a minority owner of anything. All that represents to me is liability without ownership. I would imagine that if the market does tank, those with the bucks will spread their wealth around to purchase controlling interest in as many viable and asset rich companies as they can. Leverage is key. They would never waste their wealth to purchase all of anything if they can buy only 51% and effectively control all of it. This game has been going on forever. This bubble is deliberate and while constant inflation does benefit some at the top, they want to own it ALL.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:55 | Link to Comment mydogisprettier...
mydogisprettierthanyou's picture

I wish i knew what all this stuff meant.....btfd?

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:57 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

Who Was Really Behind the 9/11 Attacks?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWLis-TVB2w&feature=share&list=UU7TvL4GlQ...
.
I looked away - Derek and the Dominos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmCu5TwMllA

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:00 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

A few good points among meh. The failure of a falling market could play out but only under certain circumstances, namely the forced unwinding of highly leveraged positions. The exit door is too small for all the leverage. However, the stock markets of Venezuela and Zimbabwe indicate stock prices will skyrocket, albeit on the back of a dollar collapse, such that you still lose value in pre-collapse dollars. The 'too big banks' can still fail, but it will take a complete market and currency collapse, which will take down other banks and the Fed. The act of the Fed trying to save one of those 'too big' banks may, in fact, be the trigger for the collapse.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 04:56 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

So, bullish? :-)

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:01 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Dup

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 18:59 | Link to Comment meizu
meizu's picture

Gold top $1883

S&P500 1838

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

1883 vs 388,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:01 | Link to Comment Eric L. Prentis
Eric L. Prentis's picture

“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 01:30 | Link to Comment Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

The road to hell is paved with FRN's.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:01 | Link to Comment DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

Real asset price histories show bubbles well (best?):
Real Homes, Real Dow
http://www.showrealhist.com/RHandRD.html

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:08 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Dow 36K

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:10 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture

Resistance is the name of the game ! I can hardly resist hot and sexy bitches! But I have to, otherwise wife will cut me balls off!

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Big Brother
Big Brother's picture

The author's 76.5% retracement should have taken place four years ago, but bail-outs of the financial section prevented that from occurring.  These charts are fun to look at, and in an unmanipulated market, might work.  But one has to assume that tapering, bailouts, POMO purchases, currency swaps, etc will continue.  This probably ends in hyper-inflation.  S&P to 3650 (FIB# = 2.618 extention - see, I can be a chartist too).

I think the common acronym around here is "BTFAH". 

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:14 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture

I hate that word plunge, honey bring the plunger my shit won't flush! Yikes!

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:14 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture

I hate that word plunge, honey bring the plunger my shit won't flush! Yikes!

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:18 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Can't happen soon enough.

And yes, this crash will be planned too.

All those folks working and their savings going into "defined contribution plans" in the Wall Street Casino.

And they don't even get free drinks.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:27 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

The fed is trying to force-feed us prosperity? What????

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      Do you guys know what the defintion of "Toad Stool" means?

  We should take heed. The 14th century wasn't pleasant...

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:30 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

worthless. flawed premise. the fed isn't trying to make things better and it isn't trying to cause widespread prosperity.

Sat, 01/18/2014 - 05:00 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Of course not, even They know they really cannot do anything, anything other than fake up numbers (pad the banks' books so that they look like they're still going concerns).

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:35 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

I love the irony of a SPX 1929 top tick.   I can easily see that happening.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 19:44 | Link to Comment titty sprinkles
titty sprinkles's picture

TL;DR but I did like that is started with a quote from my great, great, great, (not sure how many greats are needed) grampa.

 

 

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