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What Do "Insiders" Know That You Don't?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With your local friendly asset-gatherer constantly promoting the cheapness of stocks of the TINA (there is no alternative) to BTFATH, TV talking-heads jabbering over 'stock-pickers' markets (infuriating Cliff Asness), and CEOs trotted out day after day to espouse how bright the future looks (even if outlooks in the immediate future are down-down-down-graded); it is hardly surprising that sentiment among the sheeple is so extremely bullish. So, when we saw the chart below... we could only ask - what do the insiders know that the average-joe-investor doesn't?

 

Of course, we are sure someone will try and explain away this avalanche of insider-selling with "tax-related" factors or "taking-profits" but none of that negates the less-than-optimistic tone that it implies about what the short- or medium-term expectations are from management of the firms that comprise the US equity market...

 

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Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:31 | 4346049 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

They know they're gonna squeal like pigs if they don't get out of the casino before it turns into a broiler.............

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:33 | 4346055 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

And how will they squeak like, when they discover that the exit has been locked ...   ;-)

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4346098 knukles
knukles's picture

Well, lemme see here.
Stocks at "all time" "Nominal" highs.
And people buy pork chops with nominal dollars (Meaning your dollar bill don't get bigger, but smaller as inflation rises, it's the purchasing power that declines)
Which the gain in stocks has helped offset for the person long of stocks....
And taxes is gonna go up as a fundamental building block of the Cloward Piven Dream

So why not sell some?
Makes sense.

Plus, gotta find buckaroos somewhere to pay for the coke and hookers.
The 1% are doing marvelously.
Simply marvie!

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:00 | 4346129 JR
JR's picture

And only God and the Fed know the credibility of Fed statistics and analyses. The Fed is hiding the evidence and putting the rest of us at even more disadvantage by keeping from us the investment knowledge - such as M3 – compiled by the Fed and known only to the insiders.

Tim McMahon, editor of InflationData.com., asked the $6,000,000,000  question in 2006 - Goodbye M3 – What is the Government hiding?

Answer: “With all its efforts at ‘Tracking Inflation’ most everyone agrees that the last thing the Government really wants is for the general public to know how much it is stealing out of your pockets through inflation.”

Wrote McMahon in 2006:, “It is no coincidence that the M3 went up an annualized 9.4% in the last three months and an annualized 17.2% in December  (2006 ) alone and now the FED wants to stop tracking it!

Why bother tackling a problem of this magnitude when you can just bury the evidence? Who wants to leave a “smoking gun” lying around? A 9.4% increase in money supply should translate into a 9.4% inflation rate (if GDP produces exactly enough to counteract obsolescence).”

Wrote McMahon at the time:

I’m surprised we haven’t heard much in the news about this but as of March 23rd 2006 the government will no longer be publishing the M3 money supply data. Most people probably say “Who Cares?” Right?

But you should care! And here’s why:

“The Federal Reserve tracks and publishes the money supply measured three different ways– M1, M2, and M3. 

These three money supply measures track slightly different views of the money supply.

The most restrictive, M1, only measures the most liquid forms of money; it is limited to currency actually in the hands of the public. This includes travelers checks, demand deposits (checking accounts), and other deposits against which checks can be written.

M2 includes all of M1, plus savings accounts, time deposits of under $100,000, and balances in retail money market mutual funds.

But that is all small potatoes, M3 includes all of  M2 (which includes M1) plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada.”

In other words, M3 tracks what the big boys are doing with the money. This includes US dollars held in banks in Canada and the UK (called Eurodollars) not to be confused with the Euro which is the standard currency of Europe.

So the question immediately arises why would the FED stop tracking this?  …

http://inflationdata.com/articles/2006/03/16/goodbye-m3-what-is-the-government-hiding

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:20 | 4346183 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have been reading reddit, a rich source of information that I had not explored before until very recently.  Their coverage of Bitcoin is excellent.  But, here is an interesting link showing what the rich in China want to do...:

 

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1vl40j/rich_chinese_continue_...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:28 | 4346205 JR
JR's picture

Good stuff, DoChenRollingBearing, such as this:

Rich Chinese continue to flee China, 64 percent of Chinese millionaires have either emigrated or plan to emigrate and United States is their favorite destination (cnbc.com)


As CNBC asks "Do the wealthy Chinese know something we don't?"

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:32 | 4346223 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Yes. "and you're not a Communist anymore either!" we have hilarious arguments over "who is a resident" now. well...this is what happens when you "buy local." here's your 500 bucks. that's it for the week.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:57 | 4346306 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

The market was ona tear this year, so well in January and pay those taxes in April 2015. If one gets stock options it makes sense to rebalance your portfolio and diversify risk (as you mention at the end of th earticle) we would have to see continued selling to know it was a trend potending something bad.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:46 | 4346433 Blazed
Blazed's picture

@JR,

They know their national environment is being destroyed beyond repair? No, I'm not talking about the AGW red herring idiocy!

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 16:11 | 4346482 JR
JR's picture

Just another advantage that the lawless, profiteering globalists have by the hostile takeover and offshoring of America’s intellectual and manufacturing bases to low-wage slave plantations  -  the sky’s the limit.

This from the commentary on DoChen’s link:

“I live in Qingdao which is apparently a ‘clean city.’ We have for the past two weeks been higher on the ppm scale than Beijing and Shanghai. I drive an hour to a smaller suburb everyday to visit factories and 50% of the time they close the highway because the pollution is so bad.

“It's is absolutely disgusting. Literally like living in a post apocalyptic world. The worst part, most here pretend like it's not happening. Everyone that I work with calls it fog (in Chinese and English).

When I show them the readings they shrug it off. .

“Here's to taking 10 years off of my life for the mighty dollar.”   

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:33 | 4346224 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

They must not have read the "Global Warming" reports, that WE are CAUSING all the pollution.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:34 | 4346229 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

I guess the "insiders" don't watch TV !

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:02 | 4346325 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Repurchase liabilities are key, too. Much of this garbage flowed from member banks, through the Fed, to money market funds, retaining investment grade ratings because the Fed guarantees to buy it back at a set future date.

Of course, if money market funds need cash, they take a hit by asking for their money back early.

A dark M3 also makes it difficult to match reserves with obligations. Reserve rules were slackened to help move the garbage.

Money market funds probably have as much risk as they did in 2008 when some "broke the buck", but fear not, rules against breaking the buck and giving depositors immediate access to their money have been changed in favor of financial institutions. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:36 | 4346062 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

So...they sell. And what do those insiders do with their new cash?

 

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:39 | 4346069 outofideas
outofideas's picture

Thats the billion dollar question, isn't it?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4346101 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Anyway, sounds good for bitcoin.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:52 | 4346106 knukles
knukles's picture

Next house, yacht, new Lambo, trophy wife (the old one's getting lots of alimony) coke and hookers, Swiss account opened by their "Swiss national lawyer bud in Zurich"....
Who cares what they do with it?
Hell, they got so much they don't even care what they do with it....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:05 | 4346141 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Yup....well put........but you forgot one thing.....they think they're immortal

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:41 | 4347017 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

AND the gulliotine is for the other guy...or gal. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:56 | 4346116 new game
new game's picture

4th home, art, gold, upgrade jet, remodel and upgrade swiming pool/ent space, furnature from around the world, flooring-marble ect. new jaguar, furnature for the pool(remodel above), clothes, toys such as boats ect, raw land, collectables to name a few stuffs on their list(s).

only two thing s on this list i would want...

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:26 | 4346379 outofideas
outofideas's picture

Well if they did all that they would actually create some economic velocity of some sort.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:51 | 4346105 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

I'm not sure what the "insiders" are going to do with their money, but from the look of things here in California, investing in water or desalinization technology might be a good bet.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:58 | 4346125 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah...

Except it's controlled by the state...
Water rights  One of the biggest political scams of the century which most people don't have any clue about.  Hell, there are lawyres who do noting but water rights ... and make fortunes... and pay off politicians (legally, of course, LOL)
And the rates charged are controlled by the PUC's.
If it was a free for all market, then BINGO, one could become Richer than An Argentine (Olde days before the turn of the last preceding century) owning water.
Remember.
When CA became a state, most of it was owned by Mexican/Spanish land grants, legally, wholesale, the state itself being generated by the Gold Rush 
Honest
The state's first actions were to take the land from the legal owners and redistribute it to the state's buds...
Same with water rights.

CA was founded upon greed and criminality.
Period
And still runs like that...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:13 | 4346169 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well..you breathe water actually. if you create an "ionizer" (what are called "air cleaners" for people who smoke) you are in fact creating water. same goes for a greenhouse...you're "trapping" water this making a "dirt cheap desert" fill will tiny plots of verdant land. the problem are propert taxes. get rid of those and you'll see food production soar.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:48 | 4346689 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Creating water???? WTF???

You have to oxidise hydrogen to create water.

If you are stuck in the Atacama desert, you likely can't condense water from the air, but it's possible pretty much anywhere else except the Arctic and Antarctic.

I'm guessing that's what you are getting at (hopefully).

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4346194 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

+1   Knuckles.   Check out the movie Chinatown with Jack Nicholson, folks.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 22:57 | 4347302 Born2Bwired
Born2Bwired's picture

The extras on the DVD tell the full real story.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4346174 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

"investing in water or desalinization technology might be a good bet."

Does desalinization tech take out the radioactive particles too?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:37 | 4346231 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

For that you need alien technology.

But in the spirit of the article, my ma recently asked me if asset / financial portfolio magicians ever recommend the 'investor' to 'invest' in PMs?

"Not the ones that want to keep their job."

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:47 | 4346438 JR
JR's picture

what the "insiders" are going to do with their money...

FYI in4mayshun. :-)

“When Dr. Quigley decided to write his 1300-page book called ‘Tragedy and Hope,’ he knew he was deliberately exposing one of the best kept secrets in the world. As one of the elite ‘insiders,’ he knew the scope of this power complex and he knew that its leaders hope to eventually attain total global control.”

W. Cleon Skousen explains it all in The Naked Capitalist.

So why did Dr.  Quigley (Bill Clinton’s mentor at Georgetown University) spill the beans?

“His answer appears in a number of places but is especially forceful and clear on pages 979-980. He says, in effect, that it is now too late for the little people to turn back the tide. In a spirit of kindness he is therefore urging them not to fight the noose which already is around their necks. He feels certain that those who do will only choke themselves to death…

“All through his book, Dr. Quigley assures us that we can trust these benevolent, well-meaning men who are secretly operating behind the scenes. They are the ‘hope’ of the world. All who resist them represent ‘tragedy.’"

Hence, the title for Carroll Quigley’s 1966 book, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Times.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 19:42 | 4346906 stant
stant's picture

now ya know what those google barges are for. dont have to worry about water to cool those servers if your floating on it

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4346198 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

When the price of the things you want to buy, equities for instance, drop in price, is not your cash increasing at the same rate?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 23:28 | 4347354 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Yes, no, maybe.  How's the inflation/deflation?  Sorry, you were asking about the fairy tale open market....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:37 | 4346064 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

2014 really appears to be THE year this house of cards meets the wicked wind that this way blows.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4346089 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Financial vortex? 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4346095 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

'Never been a better time to sell".

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4346097 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

"if you like your returns, you can keep them"

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:06 | 4346143 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Likely so. I know I've been amazed at how long they've been able to keep this crony hell game going, as have many others. Problem is, they're running out of completely clueless idiots to keep the game going. Also, they won't just give up their privilege and they're going to try to take everything of value on their way out the door. Could get real dicey if the big boyz start battling each other over the remains.

The next question is what does it look like on Main Street USA when the house of cards comes down? What does a collapsing house of cards mean to the folks who have already dropped out of the system, which is a growing number daily? Will people just quit paying mortgages, taxes and credit card bills? Really, doing that won't hurt the majority of people anyway. Or, will people go batshit crazy and start taking out their frustrations on their neighbors instead of venting it toward the real perpetrators? However it goes down, it's sure to be interesting.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:18 | 4346177 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

nay, veerily. "we have the best clueless idiot ever." the Great Battle of Time Warner is your tell. "the debt is being repudiated" in the form of "I say no to your buyout offer." Come to me when you have 200 billion.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:14 | 4346167 shutdown
shutdown's picture

Oh, let's hope so. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:37 | 4346065 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

The insiders that tick me off the most are our politicians and government workers.

Flashback...

Congress Exempts Most Federal Workers From Key Insider Trading Reporting Requirement

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-13/congress-exempts-most-federal-w...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:42 | 4346077 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

This.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:16 | 4346175 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Criminal CONgress exempts criminal action by government criminals.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:38 | 4346067 dbTX
dbTX's picture

They know the truth.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:56 | 4346118 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

fellow rats, abandon the ship!

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:25 | 4346200 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

Yep, and here are some ships the rats are jumping off of (courtesy this weekend's Barron's):

ADP, KMX, FB, GILD (hmm...), HTZ, IART, MNST, NTAP, ORCL, PANW, TWC

(I only included companies where insiders were selling over $10 million of their companies' shares)

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:51 | 4346696 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I never got on the ship in the first place.

Saves time abandoning!

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:44 | 4346081 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

They know that its going to blow up bigger than Vesuvius, Krakatoa, and Pompeii all rolled into one...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4346090 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

run....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:51 | 4346094 Oxbo Rene
Oxbo Rene's picture

My God I hope this thing don't go poof for another week.
Got another week to go before NWTM has deadline to ship my physical Au. Been waiting four months for them to ship =
deadline is 27th (one week) = what a crock to be put off for this long ! ! !
Just praying I get my Au before the roof falls in ......

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:56 | 4346120 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

There is something to be said for the local coin dealer; you walk in with fiat and walk out with real money. Sure it cost a few more bucks but the lack of hassle is well worth it.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:11 | 4346162 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, very true.  It may take you a while to build up your position, but if you have been buying a long time, welll then...  And paying cash gives a little more anonymity than by mail order / internet buying.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:04 | 4346608 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

IF your local dealer(s) have any inventory....I'm on a waiting list. Dealer says as soon as (most times same day) something comes into the store, it goes out. Where is all of the Au/Ag that everyone is talking about as it is not in coin or bullion form in my area at the listed selling prices....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:53 | 4346699 logicalman
logicalman's picture

LCS guy says if I'm not there at opening and one of the first few through the door, I'm SOL

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 23:32 | 4347365 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

It won't matter.  You cannot save yourself.  Mankind thinking it had that kind of power is what got us into this mess.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4346100 Reaper
Reaper's picture

The inside-insiders know and control the timing.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:51 | 4346102 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

You are all interpreting the graph in the wrong way. The insiders know that the market is headed higher and instead of holding on to make a bigger profit, they are kindly selling to those lower down the food chain so that they can have the opportunity of buying some shares and making a profit.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:07 | 4346150 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

LOL

Actually I think it's less altruistic than that, and also less indicative.  Maybe insiders are just sitting on more unrealized gains than most.  Remember, a lot of corporate margin, cash, and profitability since 2008 is based on artifacts of the shrinking market.  This insider selling may be just one more mathematical oddity - and another sign that we are finally coming to an end of that regime.

If that's right, profitability will be falling, along with equity prices ... if the Fed will allow it.

Alternatively it would be a shadow effect of the tapir, though why that would impact insiders more than outsiders is a little hard to explain.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:18 | 4346179 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I think someone missed my sarcasm, hence the down vote.

The fact that the arket is still rising just goes to show that the market is defying even their own expectations of a collapse.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:05 | 4346943 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Your point is well taken. As such, insider trading has been presented before as an indication that quite possibly the market is preparing to tank but did the opposite of what was expected.

Was that due to the Fed and QE, or were all those unemployed middle class investors continuing to sink their hard earned dollars into the Wall Street Casino.

Based upon plenty of charts and articles posted by ZH, there have been minor corrections which resulted in the Fed stepping in to halt the down slide and provide the necessary Nitrous Oxide to keep the laugh track to this three ring circus going.

Will this be the necessary market cleansing drop or just a minor bump in the road that the Yellen Fed will use as an excuse to keep printers humming long into the night.

Maybe the insiders are anticipating another minor correction and want to sell off at the top with the hopes of buying again at some pre-determined bottom.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:55 | 4346115 Bunga Bunga
Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:46 | 4346212 W74
W74's picture

I'd vote for Hrishi Avgi, but then I'm not a Greek citizen.

Would work the other way around in Chicago or New Jersey though.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:08 | 4346951 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I'd vote for Golden Dawn just to see how many Panzer divisions they can muster to invade Berlin.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:57 | 4346123 petridish
petridish's picture

Need help.  What does BTFATH stand for?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:01 | 4346132 gafgroocK
gafgroocK's picture

BUY THE FUCKING ALL TIME HIGH

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:03 | 4346136 stant
stant's picture

buy  the f--k at the  high

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:53 | 4346294 atomp
atomp's picture

jesus

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 16:18 | 4346511 FinalEvent
FinalEvent's picture

Yes, who called me?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:10 | 4346958 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

BTFATH: It stands for more blow jobs, cocaine, and hookers for Wall Street Bankers.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:10 | 4346160 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Buy the fucking all time high

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:02 | 4346130 Oxbo Rene
Oxbo Rene's picture

in4mayshun;
Ha, my local coin dealer closed shop bout a month ago ....
Haven't seen him since ....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4346154 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

  Contrarian Indicator.

  This is the election year that will make or break the future of the Corporatist State. From Warmists to Universal Healthcare, this is the big one. There must be ample enough fiat supplies to appease all the key special interests.

  Even Moonbeam couldn't be trumped by Governor Big Mac there in New Joysey. Goin' for drought aid 4 months before the end of the rainy season. So many votes to buy, so little time.

 Gotta get Cher back on the wagon.

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:57 | 4346713 logicalman
logicalman's picture

The only way to send the correct message to the bastards at election time would be NOBODY VOTES.

If the percentage of voters was small enough they wouldn't be able to claim a mandate - not legitimately, anyway.

Don't vote, it only encourages the bastards.

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:13 | 4346965 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

That just leaves the political candidates voting and never ending run-offs since they have a tendency to vote for themselves.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:11 | 4346158 pitz
pitz's picture

So where are the 'insiders' taking their money? 

Because its not like the alternatives to stocks are exactly doing very well these days. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:12 | 4346164 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Better for the insiders to beat a CLOVEN HOOF, than be turned into financial bacon before the exits are blocked by the stampede.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4346173 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Is there some reason for only providing a 12-month chart, which conveniently excludes previous periods where such extreme divergences occurred?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:19 | 4346182 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

My initial thoughts too Redneck.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:21 | 4346191 giorgioorwell
giorgioorwell's picture

I think ZH really needs to stop trying to time a drop in any way...this "what do the insiders know that you don't" meme has been presented so many times in the past 3 years, and nothing has come of it.

I'm not suggesting the markets are anything but doomed, but thinking that any indicator is going to telegraph when/why that will happen is naive.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:47 | 4346276 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

True, but better to get out years too early than a day too late.

 

"what do the insiders know that the average-joe-investor doesn't?"

Zombies are coming.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:52 | 4346291 giorgioorwell
giorgioorwell's picture

Of course, but pretending there are some kind of indicators that show when that will happen (like insider trades) is delusional.  We/ZH won't know or see the next Black Swan coming...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:05 | 4346333 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

Agree. Nothing in your post was untrue. I didn't downvote you.

This market (including paper gold) has had scam written all over it for a long, long time now. I made some money a number of years ago, I even made money on paper gold, when it was getting started. But I spook easily, and I've been out a long time now. Its all about your tolerance for risk.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:13 | 4346349 giorgioorwell
giorgioorwell's picture

Pardon me, the delusional comment wasn't directed at you....that was more for the chart loving crowds (and lately ZH) that are reading tea leaves when it comes to timing market up and down swings.  

ZH is generally on the money on everything but this one predeliction for trying to point out when a crash is coming.

I guess they do need to fill the blog with new posts everyday..I just wish they'd stop it with the charts.  

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 16:27 | 4346503 Renfield
Renfield's picture

One day, these charts may be relevant again, if only as exhibits in trials.

I agree that forecasting, technical analysis, or really any analysis is only as good as its data. Where so much data is obviously and clearly false, most financial and technical forecasts you read these days are pretty much fantasy. Any bull or bear can torture the stats to make its case. At some point a 'tipping point' is reached, where the garbage in the data outweighs the value of its analysis. Personally I think we are at least a year past that point.

I have barely glanced at the gold - pardon me, the GLD - charts, showing COMEX-weighted prices, for well over a year now. I follow gold news closely. I follow housing closely too but look at very few charts anymore. Unfortunately, due to the garbage in such statistics such as prices and inventory and all public reporting figures, I find much better guidance (these days only) in the realm of opinion. I read the 'good guys' (who I've come to trust in the past - there are no new ones who can be trusted), those with decades of experience, who describe their reasoning and their assumptions as they try to tease out the truth from that mountain of garbage. I keep my small money safe on the sidelines, read, learn, and wait.

I don't think these charts are really about investing any more. At this point they are more about spotting and avoiding the scams run by our criminal authorities, learning how the propaganda works, and Lord knows there is a mountain more of that than there used to be. This is how the field of economics is discrediting itself in the eyes of the public. But bankster and government credibility is eroding very quickly now. Great numbers of sheep are waking up, who will never trust them again, and who will teach their children never to trust them. Thanks in part to these charts, it's becoming obvious who the 'bad guys' are. When even the untrained and unqualified sheep not only have NO trouble seeing the lies, but ain't buying neither lie nor truth of any kind from certain sources (o hai there MSM), then the game is just about up.

Maybe we're approaching a kind of peak propaganda. It would be a shame to give up completely on charts and those who try to tease out the truth, just when the lies may be collapsing on their own weight. Who knows but that, in another year or two, integrity may make its way back into (some) markets and we can argue about the best way to interpret charts and trends for investment purposes again. Maybe we'll even be less reliant on numbers, or models and other 'math' investing tricks. Investing is much, much more than just a numbers game anyway.

But that will have to wait until defeat of the criminal enterprise that has taken over our financial system. I don't think that defeat is very far away now. Public opinion is swinging faster now, and very firmly, against them.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 16:41 | 4346555 Cheyenne
Cheyenne's picture

"Peak propaganda"? Now that makes me laugh. I tell people, look, if it's on TV and it's not a temperature, a sports score, or a grocery/store price, it's a falsehood in one form or another. The looks of bewilderment... peak dumb.

While I agree people are waking up, my sense is that we still haven't gotten to the knee of the curve.  Even people who are skeptical about certain MSM subjects (say financial news) swallow the most ludicrous stories in other areas (say, that Adam Lanza killed 26 and wounded 1 in Sandy Hook) without so much as a shred of evidence to support it.

It takes awhile to fully absorb the notion that the entire system is just one gigantic fraud, that fraud and crime don't neatly compartmentalize themselves according to subject matters grouped by some cosmic Dewey decimal system.

Another problem, imo, is that the top echelon in just about every industry is at least complicit (and likely worse) in vast crimes, and yet the people below the top still strive to reach the top because they are either willfully blind or hopelessly stupid.

Ultimately you're right that integrity will makes its way back. And when it does I'd like to think it'll stick around for a few generations. I just fear the beating it's gonna take to make that happen. Brrrrrr...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 16:51 | 4346581 Renfield
Renfield's picture

Heh. It's a thankless job being the starry-eyed optimist of Zero Hedge. Whenever my family gets after me for being too damn pessimistic, I come here and post a comment as antidote. :-)

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:44 | 4346682 falak pema
falak pema's picture

there are those who like to stare into the abyss and there are those who become artsy fartsy to say rational. 

Antidoterationality has to be delusionally irrational. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:48 | 4346269 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They feel guilty for being in a position of making too much money and they are selling to pay their fair share to the IRS and donate the rest to charity.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:50 | 4346284 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

:wiping coffee off my screen:

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 18:01 | 4346720 logicalman
logicalman's picture

In other news, it's not radiation coming out of Fukushima, it's magic moon-beams.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:16 | 4346972 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

And here I was hoping for rainbow skittles.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 16:09 | 4346488 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

The Contrarian trade of the Century is here. Whoever has extra cash available should buy way out of the money puts for $1 to $5 apiece. This way you will have a few thousand of them. You should keep doing this every two months and expect to continue to keep doing this for maybe another 2 years. Realistically, this thing could Crash in 3 months.
It's the equivalent of having a Lottery Ticket.
I was convinced to do this by a Great Trader on the NYMEX who made
$ 21 million in one minute on a Contrarian trade. When Iraq invaded Kuwait, a meeting to avoid war was arranged between James Baker and Teriqic Aziz.
Crude Oil moved by .01 cents ticks then, $17.32, 17.31, 17.32 etc.
Crude had just sold off by over $ 4.00 in anticipation that when the meeting to avoid war was over, we indeed would not be going to war. Everyone was on one side of the boat.
This trader bought over 2000 lots of Crude awaiting the results of the meeting. I asked him why So large a position.
He said " The Mkts factored in that we wont go to war. So if we Hear what we already expect will i get hurt? Not by much. But if there is a SUPRISE........I'll have a Lottery Trade."
James Baker walked to the podium and said " I Regret To Inform You...."
The next 11 prints in Crude Oil was $18.00,$19.00,$20.00,21,22,23,24,25,26,27 and then $28.00.
He got out at $28.00
This relates to us even though we don't know the exact time of this next crash. I used this technique in 1999 thru 2000 by buying way out of the money puts cheaply and I had a Lottery trade. I made more in the crash of 2000 on the lottery positions than I did on my traditional positions.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 21:05 | 4347087 Boozer
Boozer's picture

@frankTHE COIN - which out of the money puts should I be looking at specifically sir?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 22:10 | 4347230 JohnnyBlaze
JohnnyBlaze's picture

LOL You beat me to it.  Seems like some great advice.  Lay money down like a monthly car payment and wait it out knowing your going to be getting ass raped monthly until you dont.  Be nice to get my fuck on some of dat banker ass for one

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 22:11 | 4347231 JohnnyBlaze
JohnnyBlaze's picture

LOL You beat me to it.  Seems like some great advice.  Lay money down like a monthly car payment and wait it out knowing your going to be getting ass raped monthly until you dont.  Be nice to get my fuck on some of dat banker ass for one

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 22:09 | 4347223 JohnnyBlaze
JohnnyBlaze's picture

If one were to employ this strategy what would be a good place to lay that put on?  SPY?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 22:48 | 4347284 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Hey Fellas. If you don't already have a list of stocks that would tank faster than other stocks if the mkt crashed, you should look at the 2-3 x Inverse ETFs.
Ex., Faz, Qid, Sh , etc.
These will skyrocket if the Mkt crashed. Some of them went up hundreds of $ dollars in 2008 when the mkt would tank 700 points in a day.
So in this case you want to buy way out of the money Calls on these reverse ETFs.
You could make 200 to 300 times your money if the mkt crashed.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 23:13 | 4347329 JohnnyBlaze
JohnnyBlaze's picture

Thanks man I appreciate the help! 

 

Those 3 you mentioned look insane on the charts.  Holy shit.  If you skipped the car and put down the monthly car payment on one of those out of the money calls and it eventually hit.  Holy fuck. 

Mon, 01/20/2014 - 02:50 | 4347554 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Anytime Method Man.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:07 | 4346616 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Maybe they know this:

This is a weekly chart of the % of stocks above their 50-day moving average covering the last 5 years to now.  Many traders and investors use the 50-day (10-week) average to determine whether they hold or exit a position.  Just after the market bottom in 2009, you see the percentages of stocks above the 50-day skyrocket and then cycle between lows and decreasing highs until the market reset with a significant low, lower even than the bottom of 2009, starting in July, 2011.  It took 2 years and 4 months between the bottom and the start of the reset.  The market and most of the stocks stayed down for 2 months until the number of stocks above their 50-day once again skyrocketed up in October from 5.5% to 85.5% in 4 weeks.    In that same 4 weeks, the S&P rose 14% while the leveraged versions of financials, small cap and technology rose 48% to 68%!!  After the reset there has been a regular pattern of decreasing highs and decreasing lows of stocks above their 50-day.  We are now 2 years and 3 months from the 2011 bottom!   

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/hu5kwdlvlhxmrxg/Reset5years50-day.jpg

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:31 | 4346657 falak pema
falak pema's picture

OT : The physical constraints of the coming age.

Here is a good thought provoking analysis :

Gail Tverberg: How the EIA, IEA, and Other Researchers Are Modeling the Wrong Growth Limit | naked capitalism

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 18:26 | 4346756 devo
devo's picture

Are there really joe six packs trading this?

I thought he was broke and/or wised up from the past two bubbles.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 19:08 | 4346841 idontcare
idontcare's picture

No.  Today's 6 pack Joes are wine guzzling techies in the Valley who think of the stock market like the California real estate market; iow, yes, you paid too much for the teardown on a 1/4 acre, but in a year you will be able to resell it for double to some poor sucker who wants to be part of the "California Way Of Life Cult".  What these same people never realized is that the game of musical chairs which they played in kindergarten was not just a game but an instructional exercise which was supposed to impart to these brilliant individuals that eventually there aren't any chairs left for the last guy to sit on.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 19:13 | 4346848 devo
devo's picture

Oh okay. I wouldn't call those people joe sixpacks. They're just boys with disposible income who dabble in a men's game. No doubt they will get their faces ripped off. The market has a grumbling belly ache and will soon shit out the Taco Bell it's been eating.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 19:14 | 4346850 logicalman
logicalman's picture

One of the things that 'the insiders' and anyone with more than half a brain know is that something big is coming.

The insiders are setting themselves up so that they stay 'the insiders' when whatever new set-up comes along.

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 19:21 | 4346863 discopimp
discopimp's picture

"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.... We’re still dancing."

      - Chucky "Banker Formerly know as Prince", July 2007

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:06 | 4346947 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

ZH hates insiders... until they're bearish.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:22 | 4346981 coastalwn
coastalwn's picture

wait aminute...   if the FED is buying he shares ten the insder are selling back to themselves...????   what could i be missing?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:51 | 4347043 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

only the sheeple's money managers will say, "We never saw it coming!"

=====

 

 

 

jb

Mon, 01/20/2014 - 00:47 | 4347473 knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

Here's my prediction.  The SPX has one more leg and will peak at 1929, and then tank.  The irony of it will be missed by most, but you know how the insiders love rituals and numbers games.

Remember the SPX bottomed at 666

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