What Do "Insiders" Know That You Don't?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With your local friendly asset-gatherer constantly promoting the cheapness of stocks of the TINA (there is no alternative) to BTFATH, TV talking-heads jabbering over 'stock-pickers' markets (infuriating Cliff Asness), and CEOs trotted out day after day to espouse how bright the future looks (even if outlooks in the immediate future are down-down-down-graded); it is hardly surprising that sentiment among the sheeple is so extremely bullish. So, when we saw the chart below... we could only ask - what do the insiders know that the average-joe-investor doesn't?

 

Of course, we are sure someone will try and explain away this avalanche of insider-selling with "tax-related" factors or "taking-profits" but none of that negates the less-than-optimistic tone that it implies about what the short- or medium-term expectations are from management of the firms that comprise the US equity market...

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Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:31 | 4346049 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

They know they're gonna squeal like pigs if they don't get out of the casino before it turns into a broiler.............

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:33 | 4346055 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

And how will they squeak like, when they discover that the exit has been locked ...   ;-)

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4346098 knukles
knukles's picture

Well, lemme see here.
Stocks at "all time" "Nominal" highs.
And people buy pork chops with nominal dollars (Meaning your dollar bill don't get bigger, but smaller as inflation rises, it's the purchasing power that declines)
Which the gain in stocks has helped offset for the person long of stocks....
And taxes is gonna go up as a fundamental building block of the Cloward Piven Dream

So why not sell some?
Makes sense.

Plus, gotta find buckaroos somewhere to pay for the coke and hookers.
The 1% are doing marvelously.
Simply marvie!

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:00 | 4346129 JR
JR's picture

And only God and the Fed know the credibility of Fed statistics and analyses. The Fed is hiding the evidence and putting the rest of us at even more disadvantage by keeping from us the investment knowledge - such as M3 – compiled by the Fed and known only to the insiders.

Tim McMahon, editor of InflationData.com., asked the $6,000,000,000  question in 2006 - Goodbye M3 – What is the Government hiding?

Answer: “With all its efforts at ‘Tracking Inflation’ most everyone agrees that the last thing the Government really wants is for the general public to know how much it is stealing out of your pockets through inflation.”

Wrote McMahon in 2006:, “It is no coincidence that the M3 went up an annualized 9.4% in the last three months and an annualized 17.2% in December  (2006 ) alone and now the FED wants to stop tracking it!

Why bother tackling a problem of this magnitude when you can just bury the evidence? Who wants to leave a “smoking gun” lying around? A 9.4% increase in money supply should translate into a 9.4% inflation rate (if GDP produces exactly enough to counteract obsolescence).”

Wrote McMahon at the time:

I’m surprised we haven’t heard much in the news about this but as of March 23rd 2006 the government will no longer be publishing the M3 money supply data. Most people probably say “Who Cares?” Right?

But you should care! And here’s why:

“The Federal Reserve tracks and publishes the money supply measured three different ways– M1, M2, and M3. 

These three money supply measures track slightly different views of the money supply.

The most restrictive, M1, only measures the most liquid forms of money; it is limited to currency actually in the hands of the public. This includes travelers checks, demand deposits (checking accounts), and other deposits against which checks can be written.

M2 includes all of M1, plus savings accounts, time deposits of under $100,000, and balances in retail money market mutual funds.

But that is all small potatoes, M3 includes all of  M2 (which includes M1) plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada.”

In other words, M3 tracks what the big boys are doing with the money. This includes US dollars held in banks in Canada and the UK (called Eurodollars) not to be confused with the Euro which is the standard currency of Europe.

So the question immediately arises why would the FED stop tracking this?  …

http://inflationdata.com/articles/2006/03/16/goodbye-m3-what-is-the-government-hiding

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:20 | 4346183 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have been reading reddit, a rich source of information that I had not explored before until very recently.  Their coverage of Bitcoin is excellent.  But, here is an interesting link showing what the rich in China want to do...:

 

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1vl40j/rich_chinese_continue_...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:28 | 4346205 JR
JR's picture

Good stuff, DoChenRollingBearing, such as this:

Rich Chinese continue to flee China, 64 percent of Chinese millionaires have either emigrated or plan to emigrate and United States is their favorite destination (cnbc.com)


As CNBC asks "Do the wealthy Chinese know something we don't?"

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:32 | 4346223 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Yes. "and you're not a Communist anymore either!" we have hilarious arguments over "who is a resident" now. well...this is what happens when you "buy local." here's your 500 bucks. that's it for the week.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:57 | 4346306 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

The market was ona tear this year, so well in January and pay those taxes in April 2015. If one gets stock options it makes sense to rebalance your portfolio and diversify risk (as you mention at the end of th earticle) we would have to see continued selling to know it was a trend potending something bad.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:46 | 4346433 Blazed
Blazed's picture

@JR,

They know their national environment is being destroyed beyond repair? No, I'm not talking about the AGW red herring idiocy!

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 16:11 | 4346482 JR
JR's picture

Just another advantage that the lawless, profiteering globalists have by the hostile takeover and offshoring of America’s intellectual and manufacturing bases to low-wage slave plantations  -  the sky’s the limit.

This from the commentary on DoChen’s link:

“I live in Qingdao which is apparently a ‘clean city.’ We have for the past two weeks been higher on the ppm scale than Beijing and Shanghai. I drive an hour to a smaller suburb everyday to visit factories and 50% of the time they close the highway because the pollution is so bad.

“It's is absolutely disgusting. Literally like living in a post apocalyptic world. The worst part, most here pretend like it's not happening. Everyone that I work with calls it fog (in Chinese and English).

When I show them the readings they shrug it off. .

“Here's to taking 10 years off of my life for the mighty dollar.”   

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:33 | 4346224 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

They must not have read the "Global Warming" reports, that WE are CAUSING all the pollution.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:34 | 4346229 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

I guess the "insiders" don't watch TV !

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:02 | 4346325 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Repurchase liabilities are key, too. Much of this garbage flowed from member banks, through the Fed, to money market funds, retaining investment grade ratings because the Fed guarantees to buy it back at a set future date.

Of course, if money market funds need cash, they take a hit by asking for their money back early.

A dark M3 also makes it difficult to match reserves with obligations. Reserve rules were slackened to help move the garbage.

Money market funds probably have as much risk as they did in 2008 when some "broke the buck", but fear not, rules against breaking the buck and giving depositors immediate access to their money have been changed in favor of financial institutions. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:36 | 4346062 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

So...they sell. And what do those insiders do with their new cash?

 

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:39 | 4346069 outofideas
outofideas's picture

Thats the billion dollar question, isn't it?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4346101 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Anyway, sounds good for bitcoin.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:52 | 4346106 knukles
knukles's picture

Next house, yacht, new Lambo, trophy wife (the old one's getting lots of alimony) coke and hookers, Swiss account opened by their "Swiss national lawyer bud in Zurich"....
Who cares what they do with it?
Hell, they got so much they don't even care what they do with it....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:05 | 4346141 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Yup....well put........but you forgot one thing.....they think they're immortal

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 20:41 | 4347017 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

AND the gulliotine is for the other guy...or gal. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:56 | 4346116 new game
new game's picture

4th home, art, gold, upgrade jet, remodel and upgrade swiming pool/ent space, furnature from around the world, flooring-marble ect. new jaguar, furnature for the pool(remodel above), clothes, toys such as boats ect, raw land, collectables to name a few stuffs on their list(s).

only two thing s on this list i would want...

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:26 | 4346379 outofideas
outofideas's picture

Well if they did all that they would actually create some economic velocity of some sort.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:51 | 4346105 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

I'm not sure what the "insiders" are going to do with their money, but from the look of things here in California, investing in water or desalinization technology might be a good bet.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:58 | 4346125 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah...

Except it's controlled by the state...
Water rights  One of the biggest political scams of the century which most people don't have any clue about.  Hell, there are lawyres who do noting but water rights ... and make fortunes... and pay off politicians (legally, of course, LOL)
And the rates charged are controlled by the PUC's.
If it was a free for all market, then BINGO, one could become Richer than An Argentine (Olde days before the turn of the last preceding century) owning water.
Remember.
When CA became a state, most of it was owned by Mexican/Spanish land grants, legally, wholesale, the state itself being generated by the Gold Rush 
Honest
The state's first actions were to take the land from the legal owners and redistribute it to the state's buds...
Same with water rights.

CA was founded upon greed and criminality.
Period
And still runs like that...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:13 | 4346169 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well..you breathe water actually. if you create an "ionizer" (what are called "air cleaners" for people who smoke) you are in fact creating water. same goes for a greenhouse...you're "trapping" water this making a "dirt cheap desert" fill will tiny plots of verdant land. the problem are propert taxes. get rid of those and you'll see food production soar.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:48 | 4346689 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Creating water???? WTF???

You have to oxidise hydrogen to create water.

If you are stuck in the Atacama desert, you likely can't condense water from the air, but it's possible pretty much anywhere else except the Arctic and Antarctic.

I'm guessing that's what you are getting at (hopefully).

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4346194 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

+1   Knuckles.   Check out the movie Chinatown with Jack Nicholson, folks.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 22:57 | 4347302 Born2Bwired
Born2Bwired's picture

The extras on the DVD tell the full real story.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4346174 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

"investing in water or desalinization technology might be a good bet."

Does desalinization tech take out the radioactive particles too?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:37 | 4346231 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

For that you need alien technology.

But in the spirit of the article, my ma recently asked me if asset / financial portfolio magicians ever recommend the 'investor' to 'invest' in PMs?

"Not the ones that want to keep their job."

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 15:47 | 4346438 JR
JR's picture

what the "insiders" are going to do with their money...

FYI in4mayshun. :-)

“When Dr. Quigley decided to write his 1300-page book called ‘Tragedy and Hope,’ he knew he was deliberately exposing one of the best kept secrets in the world. As one of the elite ‘insiders,’ he knew the scope of this power complex and he knew that its leaders hope to eventually attain total global control.”

W. Cleon Skousen explains it all in The Naked Capitalist.

So why did Dr.  Quigley (Bill Clinton’s mentor at Georgetown University) spill the beans?

“His answer appears in a number of places but is especially forceful and clear on pages 979-980. He says, in effect, that it is now too late for the little people to turn back the tide. In a spirit of kindness he is therefore urging them not to fight the noose which already is around their necks. He feels certain that those who do will only choke themselves to death…

“All through his book, Dr. Quigley assures us that we can trust these benevolent, well-meaning men who are secretly operating behind the scenes. They are the ‘hope’ of the world. All who resist them represent ‘tragedy.’"

Hence, the title for Carroll Quigley’s 1966 book, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Times.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 19:42 | 4346906 stant
stant's picture

now ya know what those google barges are for. dont have to worry about water to cool those servers if your floating on it

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:24 | 4346198 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

When the price of the things you want to buy, equities for instance, drop in price, is not your cash increasing at the same rate?

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 23:28 | 4347354 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Yes, no, maybe.  How's the inflation/deflation?  Sorry, you were asking about the fairy tale open market....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:37 | 4346064 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

2014 really appears to be THE year this house of cards meets the wicked wind that this way blows.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4346089 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Financial vortex? 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4346095 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

'Never been a better time to sell".

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4346097 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

"if you like your returns, you can keep them"

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:06 | 4346143 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Likely so. I know I've been amazed at how long they've been able to keep this crony hell game going, as have many others. Problem is, they're running out of completely clueless idiots to keep the game going. Also, they won't just give up their privilege and they're going to try to take everything of value on their way out the door. Could get real dicey if the big boyz start battling each other over the remains.

The next question is what does it look like on Main Street USA when the house of cards comes down? What does a collapsing house of cards mean to the folks who have already dropped out of the system, which is a growing number daily? Will people just quit paying mortgages, taxes and credit card bills? Really, doing that won't hurt the majority of people anyway. Or, will people go batshit crazy and start taking out their frustrations on their neighbors instead of venting it toward the real perpetrators? However it goes down, it's sure to be interesting.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:18 | 4346177 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

nay, veerily. "we have the best clueless idiot ever." the Great Battle of Time Warner is your tell. "the debt is being repudiated" in the form of "I say no to your buyout offer." Come to me when you have 200 billion.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:14 | 4346167 shutdown
shutdown's picture

Oh, let's hope so. 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:37 | 4346065 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

The insiders that tick me off the most are our politicians and government workers.

Flashback...

Congress Exempts Most Federal Workers From Key Insider Trading Reporting Requirement

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-13/congress-exempts-most-federal-w...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:42 | 4346077 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

This.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:16 | 4346175 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Criminal CONgress exempts criminal action by government criminals.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:38 | 4346067 dbTX
dbTX's picture

They know the truth.

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:56 | 4346118 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

fellow rats, abandon the ship!

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 14:25 | 4346200 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

Yep, and here are some ships the rats are jumping off of (courtesy this weekend's Barron's):

ADP, KMX, FB, GILD (hmm...), HTZ, IART, MNST, NTAP, ORCL, PANW, TWC

(I only included companies where insiders were selling over $10 million of their companies' shares)

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 17:51 | 4346696 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I never got on the ship in the first place.

Saves time abandoning!

 

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:44 | 4346081 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

They know that its going to blow up bigger than Vesuvius, Krakatoa, and Pompeii all rolled into one...

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4346090 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

run....

Sun, 01/19/2014 - 13:51 | 4346094 Oxbo Rene
Oxbo Rene's picture

My God I hope this thing don't go poof for another week.
Got another week to go before NWTM has deadline to ship my physical Au. Been waiting four months for them to ship =
deadline is 27th (one week) = what a crock to be put off for this long ! ! !
Just praying I get my Au before the roof falls in ......

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