BofAML: EUR Has Topped And Gold Will Surprise To The Upside

Tyler Durden's picture

EURUSD has topped out, BofAML's Macneil Curry notes, as the break of 1.3548 confirmed a bearish turn in the medium-term trend, targeting 18-month trendline support at 1.3144. Furthermore, Curry warns, longer-term charts suggest this could be the start of something significantly more bearish - targeting the 200-month average at 1.2187. Despite this USD strength, Curry adds, gold remains curiously bid and could squeeze to $1,399.

Via BofAML's Macneil Curry,

€/$ breakdown

€/$ broke down sharply Friday, closing through key support at 1.3564/ 1.3548 (100d avg and Jan-09 low) and confirming a near term, potentially medium term, turn in trend. We have gone short on the break of 1.3548, targeting 18m trendline support at 1.3144. However, long term charts warn that this turn could be the start of something significantly more bearish, targeting the 200m avg at 1.2187. While more needs to be seen before we can make this call with confidence (a break of the 1.3295 Nov-07 low would increase our confidence), long term interest rate spreads support this scenario. Indeed, the US-GER 10yr spread continues on its well defined widening spread towards 132bps.

€/$ begins its downtrend

€/$ is breaking down. The impulsive decline from 1.3893 and subsequent break of the 100d avg says the trend has turned bearish. The initial target is the 200d avg at 1.3349, but this should be only temporary support before the 18m t/line at 1.3144. 

Weekly charts warns that this is the start of something more

A bigger picture view of €/$ warns that this most recent turn lower (from the Dec-27 high of 1.3893) could be the beginning of a much larger bear trend towards the 200m at 1.2187. To be clear, more needs to be seen (like a close below the 1.3295 Nov-07 low) before we can make this call with confidence, but the potential is there

US-GER 10yr Spread supports a lower €/$

The US-GER 10yr Spread continues on its well defined, long term widening trend. The break of long term channel resistance, coupled with the Head and Shoulders Base targets 124bps/132ps and potentially beyond. This is €/$ bearish

Gold squeeze

Despite the recent strength of the US $, precious metals remain very well supported. Last week we highlighted the bullish potential for Silver, now Gold looks poised to surprise to the topside. A break of the 1270 pivot should be the catalyst for short squeeze higher, exposing the confluence of resistance between 1362/1399