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The Retail Death Rattle
Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,
“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.” - Emile Gauvreau

If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. November and December retail sales account for 20% to 40% of annual retail sales for most retailers. The number of visits to retail stores has plummeted by 50% since 2010. Please note this was during a supposed economic recovery. Also note consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Also note credit card debt outstanding is 7% lower than its level in 2010 and 16% below its peak in 2008. Retailers like J.C. Penney, Best Buy, Sears, Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble continue to report appalling sales and profit results, along with listings of store closings. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales. How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall? The answer is that 99% of America has not had an economic recovery. Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation.

The entire economic recovery storyline is a sham built upon easy money funneled by the Fed to the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks so they can use their HFT supercomputers to drive the stock market higher, buy up the millions of homes they foreclosed upon to artificially drive up home prices, and generate profits through rigging commodity, currency, and bond markets, while reducing loan loss reserves because they are free to value their toxic assets at anything they please – compliments of the spineless nerds at the FASB. GDP has been artificially propped up by the Federal government through the magic of EBT cards, SSDI for the depressed and downtrodden, never ending extensions of unemployment benefits, billions in student loans to University of Phoenix prodigies, and subprime auto loans to deadbeats from the Government Motors financing arm – Ally Financial (85% owned by you the taxpayer). The country is being kept afloat on an ocean of debt and delusional belief in the power of central bankers to steer this ship through a sea of icebergs just below the surface.
The absolute collapse in retail visitor counts is the warning siren that this country is about to collide with the reality Americans have run out of time, money, jobs, and illusions. The most amazingly delusional aspect to the chart above is retailers continued to add 44 million square feet in 2013 to the almost 15 billion existing square feet of retail space in the U.S. That is approximately 47 square feet of retail space for every person in America. Retail CEOs are not the brightest bulbs in the sale bin, as exhibited by the CEO of Target and his gross malfeasance in protecting his customers’ personal financial information. Of course, the 44 million square feet added in 2013 is down 85% from the annual increases from 2000 through 2008. The exponential growth model, built upon a never ending flow of consumer credit and an endless supply of cheap fuel, has reached its limit of growth. The titans of Wall Street and their puppets in Washington D.C. have wrung every drop of faux wealth from the dying middle class. There are nothing left but withering carcasses and bleached bones.
The impact of this retail death spiral will be vast and far reaching. A few factoids will help you understand the coming calamity:
- There are approximately 109,500 shopping centers in the United States ranging in size from the small convenience centers to the large super-regional malls.
- There are in excess of 1 million retail establishments in the United States occupying 15 billion square feet of space and generating over $4.4 trillion of annual sales. This includes 8,700 department stores, 160,000 clothing & accessory stores, and 8,600 game stores.
- U.S. shopping-center retail sales total more than $2.26 trillion, accounting for over half of all retail sales.
- The U.S. shopping-center industry directly employed over 12 million people in 2010 and indirectly generated another 5.6 million jobs in support industries. Collectively, the industry accounted for 12.7% of total U.S. employment.
- Total retail employment in 2012 totaled 14.9 million, lower than the 15.1 million employed in 2002.
- For every 100 individuals directly employed at a U.S. regional shopping center, an additional 20 to 30 jobs are supported in the community due to multiplier effects.
The collapse in foot traffic to the 109,500 shopping centers that crisscross our suburban sprawl paradise of plenty is irreversible. No amount of marketing propaganda, 50% off sales, or hot new iGadgets is going to spur a dramatic turnaround. Quarter after quarter there will be more announcements of store closings. Macys just announced the closing of 5 stores and firing of 2,500 retail workers. JC Penney just announced the closing of 33 stores and firing of 2,000 retail workers. Announcements are imminent from Sears, Radio Shack and a slew of other retailers who are beginning to see the writing on the wall. The vacancy rate will be rising in strip malls, power malls and regional malls, with the largest growing sector being ghost malls. Before long it will appear that SPACE AVAILABLE is the fastest growing retailer in America.

The reason this death spiral cannot be reversed is simply a matter of arithmetic and demographics. While arrogant hubristic retail CEOs of public big box mega-retailers added 2.7 billion retail square feet to our already over saturated market, real median household income flat lined. The advancement in retail spending was attributable solely to the $1.1 trillion increase (68%) in consumer debt and the trillion dollars of home equity extracted from castles in the sky, that later crashed down to earth. Once the Wall Street created fraud collapsed and the waves of delusion subsided, retailers have been revealed to be swimming naked. Their relentless expansion, based on exponential growth, cannibalized itself, new store construction ground to a halt, sales and profits have declined, and the inevitable closing of thousands of stores has begun. With real median household income 8% lower than it was in 2008, the collapse in retail traffic is a rational reaction by the impoverished 99%. Americans are using their credit cards to pay their real estate taxes, income taxes, and monthly utilities, since their income is lower, and their living expenses rise relentlessly, thanks to Bernanke and his Fed created inflation.

The media mouthpieces for the establishment gloss over the fact average gasoline prices in 2013 were the second highest in history. The highest average price was in 2012 and the 3rd highest average price was in 2011. These prices are 150% higher than prices in the early 2000′s. This might not matter to the likes of Jamie Dimon and Jon Corzine, but for a middle class family with two parents working and making 7.5% less than they made in 2000, it has a dramatic impact on discretionary income. The fact oil prices have risen from $25 per barrel in 2003 to $100 per barrel today has not only impacted gas prices, but utility costs, food costs, and the price of any product that needs to be transported to your local Wally World. The outrageous rise in tuition prices has been aided and abetted by the Federal government and their doling out of loans so diploma mills like the University of Phoenix can bilk clueless dupes into thinking they are on their way to an exciting new career, while leaving them jobless in their parents’ basement with a loan payment for life.
The laughable jobs recovery touted by Obama, his sycophantic minions, paid off economist shills, and the discredited corporate legacy media can be viewed appropriately in the following two charts, that reveal the false storyline being peddled to the techno-narcissistic iGadget distracted masses. There are 247 million working age Americans between the ages of 18 and 64. Only 145 million of these people are employed. Of these employed, 19 million are working part-time and 9 million are self- employed. Another 20 million are employed by the government, producing nothing and being sustained by the few remaining producers with their tax dollars. The labor participation rate is the lowest it has been since women entered the workforce in large numbers during the 1980′s. We are back to levels seen during the booming Carter years. Those peddling the drivel about retiring Baby Boomers causing the decline in the labor participation rate are either math challenged or willfully ignorant because they are being paid to be so. Once you turn 65 you are no longer counted in the work force. The percentage of those over 55 in the workforce has risen dramatically to an all-time high, as the Me Generation never saved for retirement or saw their retirement savings obliterated in the Wall Street created 2008 financial implosion.
To understand the absolute idiocy of retail CEOs across the land one must parse the employment data back to 2000. In the year 2000 the working age population of the U.S. was 213 million and 136.9 million of them were working, a record level of 64.4% of the population. There were 70 million working age Americans not in the labor force. Fourteen years later the number of working age Americans is 247 million and only 144.6 million are working. The working age population has risen by 16% and the number of employed has risen by only 5.6%. That’s quite a success story. Of course, even though median household income is 7.5% lower than it was in 2000, the government expects you to believe that 22 million Americans voluntarily left the labor force because they no longer needed a job. While the number of employed grew by 5.6% over fourteen years, the number of people who left the workforce grew by 31.1%. Over this same time frame the mega-retailers that dominate the landscape added almost 3 billion square feet of selling space, a 25% increase. A critical thinking individual might wonder how this could possibly end well for the retail genius CEOs in glistening corporate office towers from coast to coast.
This entire materialistic orgy of consumerism has been sustained solely with debt peddled by the Wall Street banking syndicate. The average American consumer met their Waterloo in 2008. Bernanke’s mission was to save bankers, billionaires and politicians. It was not to save the working middle class. You’ve been sacrificed at the altar of the .1%. The 0% interest rates were for Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein. Your credit card interest rate remained between 13% and 21%. So, while you struggle to pay bills with your declining real income, the Wall Street bankers are again generating record profits and paying themselves record bonuses. Profits are so good, they can afford to pay tens of billions in fines for their criminal acts, and still be left with billions to divvy up among their non-prosecuted criminal executives.
Bernanke and his financial elite owners have been able to rig the markets to give the appearance of normalcy, but they cannot rig the demographic time bomb that will cause the death and destruction of our illusory retail paradigm. Demographics cannot be manipulated or altered by the government or mass media. The best they can do is ignore or lie about the facts. The life cycle of a human being is utterly predictable, along with their habits across time. Those under 25 years old have very little income, therefore they have very little spending. Once a job is attained and income levels rise, spending rises along with the increased income. As the person enters old age their income declines and spending on stuff declines rapidly. The media may be ignoring the fact that annual expenditures drop by 40% for those over 65 years old from the peak spending years of 45 to 54, but it doesn’t change the fact. They also cannot change the fact that 10,000 Americans will turn 65 every day for the next sixteen years. They also can’t change the fact the average Baby Boomer has less than $50,000 saved for retirement and is up to their grey eye brows in debt.

With over 15% of all 25 to 34 year olds living in their parents’ basement and those under 25 saddled with billions in student loan debt, the traditional increase in income and spending is DOA for the millennial generation. The hardest hit demographic on the job front during the 2008 through 2014 ongoing recession has been the 45 to 54 year olds in their peak earning and spending years. Combine these demographic developments and you’ve got a perfect storm for over-built retailers and their egotistical CEOs.
The media continues to peddle the storyline of on-line sales saving the ancient bricks and mortar retailers. Again, the talking head pundits are willfully ignoring basic math. On-line sales account for 6% of total retail sales. If a dying behemoth like JC Penney announces a 20% decline in same store sales and a 20% increase in on-line sales, their total change is still negative 17.6%. And they are still left with 1,100 decaying stores, 100,000 employees, lease payments, debt payments, maintenance costs, utility costs, inventory costs, and pension costs. Their future is so bright they gotta wear a toe tag.
The decades of mal-investment in retail stores was enabled by Greenspan, Bernanke, and their Federal Reserve brethren. Their easy money policies enabled Americans to live far beyond their true means through credit card debt, auto debt, mortgage debt, and home equity debt. This false illusion of wealth and foolish spending led mega-retailers to ignore facts and spread like locusts across the suburban countryside. The debt fueled orgy has run out of steam. All that is left is the largest mountain of debt in human history, a gutted and debt laden former middle class, and thousands of empty stores in future decaying ghost malls haunting the highways and byways of suburbia.
The implications of this long and winding road to ruin are far reaching. Store closings so far have only been a ripple compared to the tsunami coming to right size the industry for a future of declining spending. Over the next five to ten years, tens of thousands of stores will be shuttered. Companies like JC Penney, Sears and Radio Shack will go bankrupt and become historical footnotes. Considering retail employment is lower today than it was in 2002 before the massive retail expansion, the future will see in excess of 1 million retail workers lose their jobs. Bernanke and the Feds have allowed real estate mall owners to roll over non-performing loans and pretend they are generating enough rental income to cover their loan obligations. As more stores go dark, this little game of extend and pretend will come to an end. Real estate developers will be going belly-up and the banking sector will be taking huge losses again. I’m sure the remaining taxpayers will gladly bailout Wall Street again. The facts are not debatable. They can be ignored by the politicians, Ivy League economists, media talking heads, and the willfully ignorant masses, but they do not cease to exist.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley
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If the point of the article was that brick & mortar sales are falling, then aren't you all proving a significant reason for it, now and the future? (Amazon or whatever). In other words, the articles whole premise of a dying consumer is obviously not accurately reflected by traditional metrics. As with many articles on this site, the author conveniently leaves out a nice chunk of the equation.
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Good God, there are places on the internet that you do _not_ ask that question unless you're looking for a fight. And I think you're right, when revenue growth can't keep up with debt service anymore, it'll be unpleasant.
If this is so as you postulate, then why hasn't Amazon turned a profit yet?
Internet sales are not replacing brick and mortor as evidenced by descending rates of profit for delivery services like UPS and FEDEX.
Just because you wish it so, does not make it so. These thing are easy to verify, why don't you do so before posting?
If this is so as you postulate, then why hasn't Amazon turned a profit yet?
"Shut up!" he explained.
Creative destruction as e-commerce doubles every 5 or so years.
Also part of the transition from a consumption economy to one that is more balanced.
Our leaders should be doing all they can to assist this transition. Instead they throw up regulatory roadblocks and pursue abstract ideological policies. Their intentions may in some cases be good, but their understanding of the economy sucks and they are thwarting the necessary transition away from consumerism towards greater production.
"Also part of the transition from a consumption economy to one that is more balanced."
You must be a populist now, because that's some seriously rose-colored glasses you're looking through. Does anything you're seeing happening the last few years look BALANCED to you? The whole damned country is acting like some kind of rebellious teenager while the banks and politicos keep hoovering the money out of everyone else's pockets. Some dinky change in retail from malls to online shopping might sound like a big deal, but it's not. Another minor improvement in cost efficiency at the sacrifice of jobs, while the debt shotgun is still loaded and trained on all our heads. Online shopping is NOT going to save us from what's coming.
Now, if by 'balanced' you mean heading towards levels of widespread poverty that will require subsistence farming to survive, you could be right.
I still have big hopes for 3D printing to have a positive impact on localizing manufacturing again.
I don't expect it to, at least not by itself. The "problem" with manufacturing in the west is that nobody wants to work for $1 so you can sell their product for $10. Well, nobody's going to sell a robot that works for $1 so you can sell its product for $10. What has to happen is the abandonment of the "get rich quick" mindset that insists that this model is either necessary or an entitlement. When society adopts a realistic view, the self-inflicted problems will go away. But we'll still have to overcome real problems like finite space/energy/time/materials/etc.
Another point which will hold 3D manufacturing back is that anything which is sold in large quantities is way, way cheaper to make in volume using traditional manufacturing processes: not only are 3D printers very slow, but the plastics used in 3D manufacturing are quite expensive.
At this point, the only thing that would help 3D manufacturing would be customisation and highly individual products, but there is pretty much zero infrastructure to support that for your average consumer (we're not talking about the techie specialist who knows his way around CAD programs here).
In that sense, 3D manufacturing is at about the same level as computers were 10 or 20 years before the first PCs came out.
So for now, 3D manufacturing isn't going to lead any great movement of local manufacturing.
(That said, I keep looking into this myself. Maybe the business opportunities are in the space of providing the services of creating custom, individualized products!???)
His main point is his last sentence, "transition away from consumerism towards greater production." and that is spot on. The US was production oriented country until about the 60's, and then flipped to consumerism as the baby boomers left the nest. We don't produce anything now but more FSA drones that just want to suck off the govt. teet. And TPTB are all too happy to accomodate them to maintain their control over them. It's a vicious negative feedback loop that the sociopaths have engineered, and sadly, we are past the point of no return IMO. The only way we get a revolution now is if the less than 40 crowd wakes up and finds their cell phones and icrap doesn't work anymore. So 0zer0 is the new Nero throwing the masses iphones AND bread. A production based society is what we need, but that means about 50% of the population has to get out of the way. You can bet that the Feudal NWO will have a lot less people in it. "The scoops are on the way!"
Notice the first paragraph of this article states "the year of the horse" starts on January 31, 2014. This could very well be the year the white horse rides:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/
Revelation 6:1-2 And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seven seals, and I heard one of the four living creatures saying as with a voice of thunder, Come. (2) And I saw, and behold, a white horse, and he that sat thereon had a bow; and there was given unto him a crown: and he came forth conquering, and to conquer.
Revelation is a minor book in the bible, and was only included 100 years later then the other books. Fear worked as well in those days as they do now.
Plus it is 100% fiction, so there's that.
I think most commenters are fiction.
Big UP's to Mr. Cooper---keep it Real player...
We will hold this down for you boi...
Big UP's to Mr. Cooper---keep it Real player...
We will hold this down for you boi...
Nothing QE4 2 trillion a month can't solve....
'Tis but a flesh wound!
It's exactly the way Yellen, Dudley and Evans think.
It'll work for a while until the currency blows up and US dollars come rushing in. It's the Federal Reserve's plan anyway. To implode the currsency and go to a new worldwide currency.
Destruction by design.
But only as long as the US Dollar is accepted as good money in China and elsewhere. That means the end is near.
As long as we can generate fake economic statistics faster than the economy deteriorates, we are fine. This has been working for 5 years.
Besides, the Fed can always ramp up QE to $200 billion a month.
How does more QE keep people shopping?
Since the Federal Reserve can just create dollars out of thin air, it can buy up assets like long-term Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities from commercial banks and other institutions. This pumps money into the U.S. economy and reduces long-term interest rates further. When long-term interest rates go down, investors have more incentive to spend their money now. In theory.
How does more QE keep people shopping?
Well for me, I know that as long as the Banksters are doing well, ammo, food and PMs are always on sale.
As long as we can generate fake economic statistics faster than the economy deteriorates, we are fine.
This has been going on since Carter when politicians realized it was a LOT easier to lie instead of actually fixing things. Carter told the truth and got pilloried. Saint Ronnie told fairey tales and got re-elected. BOTH parties now lie like mad and bow to the rich and powerful. No real differnece in the Dems since Clinton.
It looks like the liquor stores will have to save the retail sector.
And gun stores
Except in Klafis and Colorado, and maybe soon R.I and Wash.. or could this be part of the substinence farming. Quien Sabe?
I'm doing my part.
And HH's part too, apparently.
Gas should be $2.50 per actual demand, but thanks to QE, along with all other assets, price does not reflect actual demand. The retail death rattle was all told by http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/people/2012/P16_2012.xls
If GDP was measured in the number of units sold we have been in a recession for at least 10 years. There is very little pricewise that is actually determined by natural supply and demand. One only needs to produce enough below demand to keep prices where you want them. More for less for the capitalists, and less for more for the people.
Good article, but fails to mention BoZoKare which will - going forward - obliterate the last bastion of discretionary income for what we once referred to as the 'middle class'
No, no, no. They're HELPING you. If it hurts a lot and costs a lot of your money, that's how you know it's help.
Is Obama telling us that this is going to hurt him a lot more than it hurts us? He's giving us a spanking for our own good, right?
Eat your peas.
Actually, the way 0zer0care trends are, there are LESS people with HC now, then there were before 0zer0care. Something like 2-3 million less. When the employer mandate kicks in this year, multiply that by at least 10. So in reality, those 30-50 million people without HC will only have to pay a fine (soon to be either rescinded by congress, or 0zer0 dictate to placate the masses), and will have thousands of dollars of disposable income in their pocket because they don't have HC premiums to pay. Bullish according to the twisted logic of 0zer0. Of course if they get sick, just go to the emergency room and ignore the bills. So what if you go into bankruptcy, lose your house, etc? It's all part of TPTB plan. Redistribute whatever real wealth and assets are held by the middle class to the 1%. 0zer0care is just another tool to accomplish the Feudal NWO.
fewer.
>>>fewer
Thank you.
Reality finally starts to assert itself...although the PR machine we call the media will probably reframe this as shoppers saving up for a massive shopping spree.
Just like when the stock market goes down, it's because of "money on the side!".
The USA is becoming the Soviet Union. Central planning at its unfinest.
A good article chock full of good details however, I have to call bullshit on raising the spectre of Communism as some kind of solution lying in wait.
"Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation."
This is not a class fight, it is a corrupt, evil men and women vs the rest fight.
it is a corrupt, evil men and women vs the rest fight
If you say so. But looking around me at the rest of us, I'm not seeing too many noble and virtuous self-sacrificing Spartan types. I'm seeing a lot of fat, soft people walking around in a haze, aimlessly looking to buy something else to eat or entertain themselves with. I don't know how a nation of such people can throw off the blinders and the shackles and stand free. Instead of "Come and take them!" they're mostly saying "I'll have the ribs and a PBR."
It has always been about "me".
"They want to believe"
You or I may not approve of the lifestyles of others but it used to be in this country that you were free to be who you wanted to be and do what you wanted to do without the threat of imprisonment, Kafkaesque governmental officials hampering your freedoms and implying loss of property and freedoms or evil men and women stealing money through the corrupt governmental and financial system.
Sure, maybe it was always the plan, but I doubt it. Rather, I think the country did really well until about 15-20 years ago.
And, whether you approve or not, those fat rib hoggin PBR swilling people are still victims of the same crimes.
Good day.
Try 30 years ago. Ronnie's election and the faux conservative movement (is there really anything conservative about selling your nation out through immigration amnesty and "free" trade labor killers?) kicked off the death spiral of the middle class. It's so far gone you have idiots on ZH arguing that cooks shouldn't make a living wage while this was common until the early 80s. Stockholm Syndrome has us fighting amongst ourselves while the criminals sipping champagne and toast our ignorance.
I think more like into the nineties, I've been around cooks and restauranteur types and shit didn't start going down hill for them until about the early 2000s. After the effects of outsourcing and wonton governmental spending really kicked in. I reckon around 94...glass steagal, NAFTA, with roots back to daddy bush, that's what gave us a big push. Like Paul following him, Perot warned us all of the giant sucking sound. And he was right. and like Paul now, he was painted as a lunatic and out of touch by the establishment GOP and of course it's de riqeur for dems.
Love him or hate him, Reagan (well, people in his cabinet, gave us a very robust economy that lifted SOOOOO many people out of poverty. And, love him or hate him, Reagan was fairly consistent in detesting the progressive leftist movement that painted people as victims and whose only solution was more governmental goodies...I grew up during nixon carter become 'of age' in 79. I detested reagan when he stepped into the quagmire and I really grew up during his tenure, and I was able to make and enjoy a very comfortable existence.
Did bad things happen under his admin, yep. But NOTHING like we have today, or with bush. I know, ketchup as a vegetable, Iran contra. But I'll take Iran contra vs wholesale usurpations of the 4-6th amendments, abridgment of the 1st, and illegal attempts to run guns to drug cartels to kill the 2nd amendment and wholesale voter fraud overseen by the justice deparment. Not to mention the idea of being taxed as a condition of being alive.
To not understand that Reagan brought the greatest level of growth to the lowest classes of people is to not understand his legacy. More blacks and hispanics grew out of the lower classes and into middle and upper middle classes during that time. And the reality that he wanted freedom and liberty for us all, a fairly consistent meme for him from at least 1964 on, cannot be understated. Not just the corruption we have in DC and in the banks today and the lightweight, imbecilic and good ole boy buffoons we've been dealth with Clinton, W and Oblunder. Could he have been better, yep. Much better, don't think so, for a president. Before that it was JFK and then before that, well, Washington..he was the best.
I'm voting Andy Jackson and NO BANK!
Yeah... Ronnie gavce the lower calsses a boost... cheap coke courtesy of Iran-CONTRA. You could make big moeny selling crack those days.
Regan talked a good game, but let's look at the facts of his administration. CIA wars of aggression to protect American biz interests against communism. A passive at best, active at worst role in the crack and AIDS epedemics. Housing Bubble Beta (the S&L scandal). Increase and monetization of the debt (2nd term) which undid the positive inflation fighting of Volker early on. Debt was spent on wholly unnecessary defense projects and that corporate welfare to Lockheed and other suckers of the gubment teet increased the class divide... Shall I go on???
The election of Raygun was the turning point, and I will never believe that his election wasn't orchestrated by the Bush influenced CIA operating in Iran. The timing was too perfect.
Raygun, before becoming Govenor of CA, had been a shill for General Electric since the early 1950's. He was a corporate spokesperson for them and primed for the speaking circuit and TV. Just like the magician who distracts with one hand while performing his tricks with the other, Raygun spun his silky tales of welfare queens and Government being the enemy to an eager & angry racist subset of the population frazzled by the progress in rights gained by women and blacks. He married these with the holy-rollers to give his corporate sponsors a winning majority of fools....then set the stage for Facism to reign.
Is Government too big and bloated? Absolutely, and it has become an impediment to all our futures. But, it is due to the coruption of the politicl process. Now, we have all these bought politicians with what is effectively one-part rule, and we are divided amongst ourselves. What Raygun did was to turn us against all government, but this is insanity. We MUST have some form of government, so we MUST figure out how to make it work for the majority of citizens.
George Bush had the right sentiments when he said he would be a uniter, not a divider.....too bad he was only joking.
Amazing how much smaller Eisenhower's high taxation government was compared to the low tax Regan era... Though I wouldn't say that most Regan supporters were racist. His words were actually suite compelling and borderline libertarian. The actions of his administration however were quite fascist and enabled big business to destroy the working class. Working people under Carter owned homes and had voices. Under Reagan and through Clinton and Bush Jr the working and middle classes were eviscerated. All the while voters argue over abortion and gays. The government you deserve...
Working people had homes under Carter? You are a moron. Working people didn't have jobs under Carter.
Bullshit. Sure the labor participation rate was lower under Jimmy but those with jobs, even menial ones could afford property. Tare the median income 's home price and affordability was WAYYYYY higher. And Volker was a Carter appointee. Oddly enough the FED didn't decide to fight inflation until AFTER Ronnie got elected.
They are willing victims in that they are complicit, having gamed the system and profitted by it, and are still doing so today. They are part of the machine, willing participants, and thus, the enemy within.
They enjoy their captivity, their enslavement, and will fight to defend their continued enslavement and your continued enslavement. They believe in the illusion that they are free while they sell themselves into bondage.
They lack any understanding, believing that they have "choice" while denying any responsibility for choices. They have no idea of the natural order of causality.
It is an easier path which they choose when they sit and deny that which is the ultimate truth. They are willing victims which are anesthetized and lack empathy and feeling. Their heart, for the most part, is dead as they are apathetic.
They believe that they are "Victims of Circumstance", as much as you, the liberal, paints them to be.
Their mind is impaired. They have neither will, nor desire, to change themselves, are content in their misery, and will enforce that upon others through coercion.
They are Zombies, empty shells, unfulfilled, apathetic and aloof to their environment, nowhere near to their potential, and thus are the walking dead.
They can choose whatever lifestyle which they want...until they attempt to shove it down my throat.
NO. NOT ONLY NO, BUT, HELL NO!!! I am NOT GOING TO PAY FOR IT.
The debt crisis was not caused by the poor, the elderly or the disabled. I suggest you choose your enemies more wisely.
Everyone remain calm, there is a well laid plan of action: More climate change regulations, taxes, fees, surcharges, bureaucracy, state surveillance, and Leftist Elitists giving speeches.
Move along and go about your business.
Are you ever going to accept that the elites simply know best what is good for us?
Its a conversation that I could imagine a fondling Catholic priest having with a choir boy while explaining to him the most righteous path to heaven.
I know that was just wrong but is there anyone here that does not feel violated by these fucking "priests" of the economy?
Leftist collectivist centrally planned elitist control. It is rooted in arrogance. The arrogance is essentially "I know how to run everything better than the people who actually do it." It gives know-nothing, do-nothing academic elites like our current community organizer a claim on power. It deeply appeals to their narciscism and their sociopathic instincts make them ideal for power grabs.
One thing I realized about the libertarian right is we admit we do not know how to run everything, so we don't try. We also say it takes infinite knowledge to supplant the individual choices of hundreds of millions or billions. That is the realm of gods...but then that it really what elitists fancy themselves, right?
I'm going to get rich by doing a flea-market roll-up.
I like it when they build a big shiny new mall a few miles from the old mall and forces the old one to close down. Then a couple years the next big thing fucks the previous one. I've seen that happen around here a few times. Some of these malls are gigantic and a few stay open with only a handful of shops and are mostly used by old people for air-conditioned walking space exercise.
Obama and the socialist party are out to destroy any candidate that opposes Hillary. All problems will be blamed on conservatives.
How much U wanna bet the NSA, with Obomber's blessing, is behind that fat fuck Christie's troubles?
Still buying into the false left right paradigm??? Christie and Obama serve the same master. I have some hope that Rand Paul is geniune, but my cynical side says he's probably a Trojan horse or will end up being a useful idiot like Reagan.
Well, they have to get to Totalitarianism somehow...
Just fyi they build a new small strip mall here about 3 years ago and I was like are you kidding? Everything here is going to hell. Flash forward there's around 25 possible storefronts that are empty and only 3 are occupied and wouldn't you know of the 3 occupants 2 of them are competing real estate agents and the 3rd is an investment company. Bravo.
I'm in a busy area and there are a number of strip malls that are 80% vacant. Their still building new ones. Maybe REITs have to use the money to have write-offs.
Gotta make more MBS for the fed to buy. QED.
New gets tenants, old gets nutting but bad credit wanna own a business. I know, been in commercial maintenance for 40 years.
God help you if you own a shopping center, I'm making bank off your asses now. Big money in trash, graffiti and homeless shit.
Financialization (Wall Street) & real estate = bloodsuckers.
Add in insurance & government (bloodsuckers too) & U have the ingredients in the recipe for an economic collapse. All the head of the Vampire Squid.
The way I hear it is that developers are building these things, securing giveaway leases to big retailers and then flipping the whole thing to foreign (read Chinese) investors. Isn't there a show on HGTV called "Flip that Mall"?
Well, in North Augusta, SC our store fronts are disproportionately " Title Pawn" or Quick cash type stores. I can't believe they can all stay in business in a town this small. Per capita we are the title pawn capitol of the world.
Well, there is a military base in Augusta. Plenty of payday loan shops any places there are soldiers.
I'm surprised that Jim didn't mention 'The Fourth Turning' once in this article; I thought it was his trademark signature. I like Jim's articles and liked the book as well.
I don't think ecommece is making up for the brick-&-mortar decline.
There is no "recovery". It's all smoke and mirrors, operated by the cronies.
Fuck this shit.
I love green shoot stories like this. This economy is ON FIRE!
If you look at the so called Middle class they got hit on all sides.
I think it was around 2008 when the credit card companies doubled their interest rate on existing customers. I believe this was because of the Consumer Protection Act.
Property Taxes skyrocked because of the so called Housing Boom. I know that on my non Owner Occupied properties the Tax went up 300%. It has taken years to get those Taxes back down and still six years later they are not as low as they were before.
Increased Income Tax. Yep, hit almost everyone in the Middle Class.
Increased Taxes on Gas, Water, Sewage Charges, Utility Bills.
Higher Heating Oil prices. Just bought a 100 gallons for $380.
Not to mention substancially higher food prices. Got to eat I guess. even if you switch down to hamburger, dried beans, rice, it is still more expensive.
Unfortunatly, everyone (meaning the Banks the Local and Federal Government) got to the money first.
There is nothing left over for discresioary items, like clothes, household items, etc.
This is a fantastic article. Though, why all the bashing of the "egotistical" retail CEOs? The market dictates you open and close stores as needed or you die. The author seems to place an emphasis on long term sustainability of workers, retail space, and existing distribution channels. I don't believe many of the CEOs impugned here define success the same way. If you really want to get down on the key system components why not blame the boards that elected them or the easy government money that enabled this suicide consumerism in the first place.
Garbage in = garbage out.
Yes, I too caught the distinct odor of the gratuitous, coarsely played, anti-business Commie attack.
Strangely prevalent also throughout this Site.
You are on the nose with your assessment of the forces that might be, and are distorting the decision-making criteria of these retail CEOs.
Because it can't ever be that they're just stupid and friends with the equally stupid members of an increasingly incestuous network of corporate/government boards, right?
"Stupid" and yet still able to be part of a complex, international sinister plot.
Go "occupy" something, Clown.
"Productive" and yet circlejerking the economy into the gutter.
Go play in traffic, Cretin.
GIGO applies to the article, indeed. It completely ignores how much online retail has taken away from bricks and mortar. The $270 billion spent in 2013 (and expected to reach 370 billion in four years) is a fair amount of dough.
And most of the online sales is not by brick and mortar stores. It is from new competitors, and many of the the old line brick and mortars are still going to be put out of business.
Look at things another way, thoush. All brick and mortars are not in jepoardy, but only the ones that sell products that can easily be sold sight unseen (radio shack or bby) or have notoriously bad management (like JCP). Malls are filled with clothing, jewlery stores, and restaurants, and little else. Demographics will shrink the clothing stores somewhat, but they aren't going away.
Have you ever noticed how some retailers will go through massive expansions and then just as quickly start closing them? I have always wondered how much kickback some of these Corporate heads were receiving from the contractors building these things. It doesn't make sense a lot of times. We can assume stupidity but as is often said, it appears to be too stupid to be stupidity. All I know there is a lot of money changing hands in these expansions and it always seems that the same people will end up doing all of the new stores.
Building a large retail store is no small order. It takes years of local market research, massaging zoning boards, and agreements with utilities. You would not believe the shit you have to go through to plant a big box store. Also, the crews will be same by region. If you want to look at "kickbacks" look instead at the bonus structures of company management to explain "irrational" behavior. When you see the various directions some of the officers are pulled to maximize take-home it makes perfect sense why "stupid" decisions are made.
Exactly who is doing years of market research in this market? I seriously doubt anyone would be brave enough to predict six months out. When the crap hit the fan in 08, we saw plenty of market research hit the skids. As far as bonus structures I really have no idea except to think that bonuses would somehow be predicated upon profits or at least gross sales and when some of these stinkers get planted it seems a lot of the management get their walking papers. I also realize that construction is largely done with local resources but not necessarily local general contractors. Those are the guys who would be providing kick backs. I work in the commercial millwork business and know how things can work when the dollars get large enough. I don't know anything for sure, but I do get a bit of a whiff of something every now and then and something doesn't smell right.
Or they get special friend kickbacks from government officials and bail when they expire. I know I can't afford to open a store but that's because I don't have taxpayer money to play around with.
I wonder which government handouts these junkers are dependent on...
Welfare/subsidy like section 8? Taxpayer-funded bailout? Government-sanctioned monopoly status? Fat no-work contract for "private" sector consulting? "Economic freedom zones" where you don't pay taxes like the rest of us have to?
Foot traffic? Retail space? What will the corrupt media think of next, claiming people shop online or something?
On line shopping definitely on steep rise and posted article should have discussed impact. Nevertheless, on line sales adversely impacts employment, commercial real estate and taxes but saves on gasoline cost and use of auto. Overall consumer spending cannot be sustained but impact will be hidden for awhile since some can still use credit cards, refinance their homes, ask daddy for help and sell their trophy wives ( at a substantial discount ). Another factor is rise in inflation which may hasten slowdown in consumer spending . Unfortunately the price of wives will remain static due to inelasticity based on higher maintenance costs associated with trophy wives
But GDP's way up! ... btw, the US debt ceiling is no longer a relevent issue in the US Capital, right? ... or in foreign Capitals?
Glad they cleared all that up.
If you like your Wal-Mart, you can keep your Wal-Mart.
Fuck you President Cumstain.
We are in the great contraction. I would argue that the last century was built on the automobile. The hotels, the motels, the restaurants, the gas stations, the repair shops, the aftermarket shops, the insurance providers, the dealerships, the loan generators, the shopping malls, all of it was tied to the automobile and the mobility it provided. With that in mind, gasoline is the life’s blood of the system. If you look at retail sales of gallons of gasoline it becomes evident that the car culture is winding down at a frightening rate. The economic assumptions based on exponential growth that was fueled by cheap gasoline are unraveling. The system is dying.
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/01/13/why-eia-iea-and-randers-2052-energy-forecasts-are-wrong/
Absolutely correct. And the Greenspan fueled housing boom prior to 2007 temporarily fueled additional false prosperity, even as the automobile culture started decaying with high gasoline prices. Housing offered similar economic ripples for builders, construction, road building, utilities, furniture and appliances, realtors, title companies, insurers, etc.
The automobile culture and the housing boom differed from today's QE in that middle class workers were involved in and benefitted from many of these things, whereas today they are not benefitting from QE and its effects only on the stock market. This is the Fed's huge mistake today, and they seem blind to it.
By ignoring speculation in gasoline prices, we have killed the automobile culture. And because we did not let property values re-set in 2008/2009 to match real wages, the housing fueled heydays are also gone forever because the middle class cannot afford an average priced home... at least until we get a re-set far worse than 2008/2009...
QE is a falacy. Most people that have Money in the Stock Market, 401K's, etc. Do not cash in their Stocks and go out and buy something. So, no matter how high the Stock Market goes most people will just hold tight and let it ride.
I was talking with my Cousin who has a lot in the Market. I said what if the Market falls? She said well, I do not need the Money anyway so, if it falls I will be in the same position everyone else will be in. I think that is the mentality of most. They do not take Money out of the Market. It just stays there until they die.
So, how can you stimulate spending when most people who have been told to buy and hold long term will not sell at any cost. How does that stimulate the economy?
The Ames on the outskirts of my hometown which went out of business about 13 years ago is finally being bulldozed. I find it totally believable that so much retail space stayed vacant for almost a decade and a half though I always figured it would turn into a Whole Foods or at least a Box & Save.
It's vacant because absentee landlords and holding companies prefer to rent zero spaces at crazy prices and collect government subsidies than to settle for anything approaching realistic rent produced by economic activity. Then those people and their minions crawl out from under their rocks and pontificate about what somebody who works for a living should settle for or do without.
Excess retail capacity = erosion of retail margins = WTF bottom line.
How can an article like this be written ignoring that the age demographics in America dictate that retailers will see lower per capita sales for the next couple of decades? Baby boomers are retiring - therefore the huge retailing revenues of the last 30 years will now not just be dampened, but to some degree reversed. This doesn't confirm society is "poorer", it means society needs less retailing.
Talked to a 55 year old on Friday or Saturday who has Zero saved for retirement and 17 years left on their FIRST mortgage!!!
Lolololololol. I really really hope that isn't typical.
I work in the bankruptcy world.
Trust me, that scenario is not untypical (and more typical with no R.E. but $30k in credit cards and $15k in co-signed student loans for their grandkids)
When this shitshow finally enters the last act, it will be fucking epic. Just wouldn't want to be near a population center of more than a few thousand.
Also, no mention of on-line sales in this article, which is a big reason B&M sales have declined. If you include on-line sales, economy isn't as bad as portrayed here.
In short, the US is a failed state.
I think the fact the economy has not recovered it quite predictable.
After 2008 with the Housing bust, reduced property values, higher credit card interest rates, etc. Consumers did something quite expected.
They tightened their belts, paid off or are paying off debt, conserving what money they have and being very careful what they spend on.
The problem for the FED is that the new frugal ways of the Consumer are becoming ingraned as a way of life. Not as a temporary cut back. I know that all of the things I cut back on have become permanent.
Almost NEVER eat out. I have learned how to make lots of delicious soups. Which are very inexpensive to make with things like dried beans, rice, dumplins, very little meat (just for seasoning). I usually make so much I end up sharing it with my single Son. Which he loves. I limit my trips to the store to save on gas. Which also saves on spending as when you are not in the store you will not spend. Shop the specials at the Grocery store. Although, things like rice, noodles, dried beans, celery, onions, carrots and potatoes are still not that expensive.
Keep the heat at 63 degrees and wear sweaters.
Many other things to keep costs contained but it has become a lifestyle that would take a lot to change at this point.
The point was to make things so bad that you are just eating soup amd heating your house to 60 degrees. First you are happy but then your soup loses meat to the cost, then other ingredients. Eventually you are drinking broth with a few navy beans and keeping the furnace at 55.
Then you notice your neighbor who is no longer working, but on the HEAP program with utility payments capped at $20 a month. He's walking around the house in his underwear when it's ten degrees outside. You notice a window is even cracked because one of the rooms is too warm.
You think back to the summer when you didn't water your lawn or wash your car to save on your water bill, but your neighbour's yard was green and he washed his Chevy Malibu every day. You start noticing his wife carrying in loads of meat amd even a few lobster tails every now and then.
You are eating broth with beans and wearing two sweaters. You took a $20k pay cut to keep your job and your neighbor doesn't work. Your neighbor hasn't had a job in two years yet lives better than you. So one day you ask.
He says, "Yeah haven't paid my mortgage in two years, bank hasn't found the paper so I'll live here till they kick me out. Remember how I hurt my back a few years ago, well a doc told me i could get disability for that. We get food stamps, WIC stuff, utility caps. It's actually pretty awesome. Instead of $2500 in bills going out to utilities and mortgage a month, it's like $500 in capped rates and taxes. With all the government stuff I take home more than I did working. Even got a new 60" flatscreen for christmas."
Do you still sit there shivering eating navy bean soup?
I think I'd pour gasoline under his door at 4am and break out some marshmallows.
Adr,
I would not feel jealous about my neighbor. They have their life style I have mine.
I own my home and would not qualify for the assistance you describe. I am not unhappy with my lifestyle. It suits me just fine.
It is disturbing though that so many choose the lifestyle you describe. So many people that pay taxes have those taxes used to pay for and comfort those who do not produce or never intend to produce any income to support themselves. Even though they are physically able to do so.
I also would not want to be a Ward of the Government, whereby they can take away those benefits you describe with a stroke of a pen. Just look at what is happening with the food stamps.
Well, best to you, it appears that you feel you are getting over on someone while I am suffering. I am not suffering. I live a modest life and it suits me just fine. I live withing my means. I do not envy you for living on other peoples money and living better than I do. I actually feel sorry for you for not living from your own work effort. As what do you have? No sence of pride, no sence of accomplishment, no sence of value of your own life.
I will meet you halfway. I have a problem with the person who lives off the government which is to live off money taken by force from others.
I will also say that while you may deride those who carry more debt or a more leveraged lifestyle I still assert that our tax rate is immoral. I remember getting laid off and paying the highest taxes of my life just when I needed the money the most. It is partly because of our stupid tax laws which presume some everlasting period of stability. But when you or anyone else (who is productive) looks at their total list of expenses the government tax burden pops out on top. When you add up everything from Fed income tax, to property to tax on your cell it dwarfs all other expenses for a middle and upper middle class person. It's insane. Statistically if you let people, whether they are financially conservative or libertine keep more of their money there is a drop in insolvency, stress and willingness to even invest.
Perhaps you may not be jealous of someone living off government but then you should not be jealous of theives who make a good living stealing the work of others. Just watch out when those same theives target you...and they will with enough time.
Well done Jim, but math and stats are for those who pay attention.
Little hope for those who don't.
Disinterest, denial, and pure ignorance will continue to triumph over truth and reality.
The red pill will be a lifesaver for many.
Pretty good post
Funniest line ever: "Before long it will appear that SPACE AVAILABLE is the fastest growing retailer in America."
However, short shrift was given to the evolution and impact from the online space.
"How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall?"
Propaganda and lies. Propaganda and lies.
"Guillotine Haircuts Here. Free for pols, crats and banksters."
My FIL "owns" many strip malls in my area, all leveraged to the hilt to fund purchase and development activities during the boom. All of the loans reach the end of their term in 2015 and not one of the centers has enough equity to meet the requirments to roll over the loans without paying them down with non-existant cash. He expects to lose them to the banks in a little over a year.
Can't delete, it seems, so whitespace will have to suffice...
Online sales may not offset lost mall sales, but online shopping certainly reduces foot traffic in malls. Also as Banzai points out, the Walmart/Target phenomenon is anti-mall (even though Target for one does sometimes participate in malls). In a declining economy people will shop at Target, shop online, and only rarely bother with the rest of brick and mortar.
I guess it is still a death rattle for retail, but really, are you here plunking for moar malz?
Malls could be a very viable thing, but we started with the wrong concept. You need to have MIXED USE establishments. If people live in the malls they will sometimes shop there and many will choose to work there. Some office space would round out the mix. Want to shop for shoes on your way to or from your dentist's office? How about do it while only parking the car once....or walking to and from home?
We had this decades ago: it was called downtown or the central business district--where there was a mixture of retail and office and the upper floors were apartments and the people living there could walk to work.
ARE YOU OPPOSED TO PROGRESS?
Yeahbut that was before the Internet. Now the idea of a mall is to supply retail for a large surrounding population. Warner Center out in (near) Los Angeles is probably as close to a modern mixed use as you can ask for. The malls are still in business, anyway, but I don't know if that's the future anymore.
The modern retail concept seems to include movie theaters as destinations and to build traffic, and yet the future of theaters is in some question as well.
Now, put the Obamacare free clinic next to the movie theaters and now we've got something kewl, hip, and progressive!
Malls are overpriced tweeny bopper hangouts that prey on dumb teens and .1% er wives go there for shopping sprees to show the rest of us how rich and special they are. Fucking stupid douches. I buy 90% of my purchases from Craigslist and haven't been disappointed yet.
"There are nothing left but withering carcasses and bleached bones."
CHAAAAANGE!!!
Any farking idiot that voted for this trash-bag illegal alien puppet, deserves what is coming. You were warned that Ron Paul was the last chance America had, and many did not listen. Now, reap the rewards of ignorance. The Game is over soon.
The purpose of BigBox retail is not selling product to consumers, but warehousing product for publicly traded corporations so they can fake revenue.
The eness building of new strip centers and retail complexes is so there continues to be growth in warehouse space. More new stores means more inventory "sold". More inventory sold means highef revenue amd higher stock prices.
Everything is about directors and majority investors selling stock to finance thier 1%er lifestyle. The majority of the inventory in retail never sells, or never sells for profit. If your company is going to go public, you'll get millions in inventory bought even if there is no demand for your product. Mr. Retail CEO doesn't get paid from what is actually sold in his store, he gets paid with stock. Most likely he has a board seat on half the companies he buys from, getting stock from each.
If a retail CEO has preferred shares of a headphone company, placing a few hundred million dollars of inventory in his stores will do wonders for that stock holding, even if the inventory never sells. His job is not to support little private business, even if your product sells extremely well. With no stock to buy, he doesn't make anything off you. If there is a publicly traded company in your space, they'll get placement over you.
Then there is a huge multi-billion dollar industry dedicated to making inventory disappear. Mostly run by the Russians. They buy inventory at cost, making room in our mega retail complexes for the cycle to continue. This inventory is used to launder money, mostly through the Amazon Marketplace. Drug cartels, human traffickers, arms dealers, etc buy this inventory with the proceeds from thier efforts and then sell the products online. The consumer thinks they are getting a deal and the drug dealer gets his freshly laundered cash. The US government is happy because these transactions keep the dollar strong in illegal trade.
The sad part is the retailer everyone loves to hate is really one of the only ones actively engaged in real commerce. Walmart doesn't really play this game. They try to sell real products to real consumers which is why they are hurting. There just aren't enough real consumers left to support Walmart's massive expansion over the last 20 years. Walmart supports more smaller companies than the entire department store sector combined. As a small private company you have a better chance selling to Walmart than Dick's Sporting Goods. Whether you can really make enough profit to run your business is another story.
Once you understand that retail stores don't exist to sell product and are just another arm of the massive Wall Street fraud everything becomes clear. Zumiez doesn't exist to sell skate pants, they exist to sell Zumiez shares. The $10 per hour employees are just a cost of business to allow the CEO and directors to make a few hunred million dollars selling shares. People ask why there are no quality jobs or quality products. Those things exist when the product you are selling is responsible for your income. When shares are your primary source of income, product no longer matters.
Wow, I did not know Target's and Dick's entire annual sales were faked and Potemkin fronts for CEO salaries, whereas Walmart is just keep'n it real. Wow, what we do without the Interwebs?
I was trapping beaver in the heart of Alabama's Black Belt this weekend. When I pulled into the boat ramp I met an old black fella who was bank fishing for dinner.
He asked to buy some beaver meat off me. Since I had caught seven that morning I agreed to skin him one and sell him the meat for $10.
We ended up talking for about an hour. He was into gardening; had recently killed a 150 class buck and was looking for a used meat grinder and a used dehydrator.
We talked about "getting ready for hard times" and it became obvious he was what we would call a prepper. He didn't really understand why shit is so expensive - he just knew that "everything is so outrageous now". He talked about eating wild game "to stay healthy" because when he was a kid "we ate out of the garden and never got sick".
The difference between rural and urban folk is like night and day. The country boys - both black and white - will survive.
What does beaver taste like?
Michael Douglas knows !!! And it causes cancer !!! Don't eat Beaver !!!
Properly Cleaned and prepared Beaver tastes Finger Lickin' Good.
If it tastes like Dead Fish then it is rancid. It was not cleaned right. Adding vinegar and preparing it properly will generally take care of that.
Your generation eats beaver, my generation licks stamps.
Tuna?
Your tale is a lot like the story on how 'poor' Appalachia is... at least in terms of how much fiat they have... But on day four of the collapse, they will just go grab something off their shelves, while the rest of America wonders why the grocery stores are not restocking things fast enough...
My "poor"area didnt even notice the great depression. Life continued as before.
Cash and storebought material goods do not really measure standard of living.
One factor that hasn't been mentioned is that Brick and Mortar retail is composed of two types: chains and independent stores. So even though sales are flat and online is taking a bigger share the chains can still be doing well simply by taking market share away from independent stores.
Blahblah... Fact remains - Amazon is killing every other retail business out there.
Amazon makes 0 profit...
can it continue for the next 10-20 years like this?
just wondering?????
Retail is a showroom
Transactions are mostly online
At a galleria mall over the weekend - top brands going for 50-70% off
We're fucked!!! ONWARD!!!!
This is actually a great and informative article that spans a great distance in the economy. I really like the lens used here. Well done.
This post from the Burning Platform may be be largely spot on, but the negative conditions it describes, (empty malls etc,) are a regional phnomenon as some parts of most states are doing ok. But High energy prices and higher health insurance costs are taking a toll everywhere. President Obama's economy is still in the ditch.
Just like China's ghost cities, America has ghost college students who run up trillions in debt in exchange for non existence jobs. Even computer engineer graduates will be squeezed as large tech companies bring in or outsource technical skills for 1/2 US wages.
I do SAT tutoring from my home using Canvas Learning Management System [Free] and FuzeMeeting $8/lmonth - I'm eating those tutors who come to your house alive. Just finished tutoring a student in India....
"A critical thinking individual might wonder how this could possibly end well for the retail genius CEOs in glistening corporate office towers from coast to coast."
Why would they give a shit about the future? They are banking on the fact that they will be long gone before the disastrous effects of their decisions are felt. They just care about making the company look as good as possible right now, get their giant bonuses for it, then leave without any accountability for what happens afterwards.
That aside, these days I do all of my shopping online except for food. And even then most of that is from overseas... So I am the worst kind of person from the establishment's perspective... What little I spend is sent to OTHER countries failing economies instead of my own!
Your gross wages might even stay the same, but your take-home pay is shrinking year on year.
To hide the even bigger tax of inflation, they have been able to reduce the quantity of food in your pack, can, box.
They just haven't been able to shrink the size of clothes, or is that what Miley Cyrus is about?
A permanent slowdown in brick & mortar retail? Nice to see you finally woke up, Rip, it's only been obvious for close to a decade now.
...even earlier than that. Harry S Dent was predicting a peak in 1990s when boomers retire.
Actually, he wasn't. Back in the early 1990s in 'The Great Boom Ahead' he predicted a peak and crash somewhere between 2007 and 2010 based on demographic spending habits and the reitrement of Boomers. He also predicted that housing would peak in 2006 based on those same demographic spending habits.
how about that Dow 10,000?
Time to buy retail stocks? This ain't no 2007, but it's not 2008 either.
It's 2014.
Jim Quinn has a penchant for blaming this all on the Boomers. Apparently they didn't take the action to grab Government by the balls and hold them accountable. My question to Quinn is where are the hands of his own generaton right now? In someone else's pockets or are they going to grow their own and do something about this. Nah? Just as I thought.
I suppose it's the Boomers that are forcing all those kids to go to college and take on those big loans.
It's the Boomers that have instilled the mindless need for a new Iphone every three months in grade schoolers across the nation.
Back in 2005 and 2005, Buffett warned of the 20 somethings with their TI calculators. Those weren't Boomers, Quinn.
Next time you start writing about how the Boomers caused all this, look in the mirror. The only thing the Boomers did wrong was to raise a bunch of whiny snot nose babies that think they're "special".
A Must Read!
People are not going to work at shit jobs that don't pay so they can buy crap they don't need.
We have ten years of demand that can be satisfied by garage sales and second hand stores.
Food staples are cheap. Quit working. Dont buy shit. And let's kill leviathan.
You should see the Goodwill stores! You would think it was a Marshalls from the outside. They sell cars and tv's too.
and the particular one I saw... No where near the poor