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Thai CDS Rise To One Year Highs After Pro-Government Faction Leader Shot

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following last night's implementation of emergency rule in Thailand for a period of 60 days, where the ongoing clashes between protesters and the government mean the economy is likely set to grind to a halt at least judging by the constant downward revisions in the country's GDP, the default risk of Thailand just jumped to a fresh one year high, rising to 159 bps, or double where it was in May of this year (but still well below the 240bps hit at the peak of the European crisis in September 2011).

However, since tensions do not appear to be getting resolved, expect this particular CDS to continue drifting higher, especially following news that the Thai leader of a pro-government group was shot last night.

From the NYT:

A leader of a pro-government faction was shot and wounded outside his home in northeast Thailand Wednesday, one day after Thailand’s prime minister declared the imposition of emergency rule in Bangkok and surrounding areas as tensions in the country escalated.

 

 

Kwanchai Praipana, who runs a group of so-called red shirts that supports the government, was shot in Udon Thani Province in what appeared to be a politically motivated attack, the police said.

 

“From what we saw on CCTV, a bronze pickup truck drove by and several rounds were fired at the house,” Kowit Tharoenwattanasuk, a police colonel, told Reuters. “We believe this is a politically motivated crime.”

 

The shooting of Mr. Kwanchai, who has thousands of followers, came as the country’s prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, sought to counter the increasingly aggressive moves of antigovernment protesters on the streets of Bangkok. Her declaration of emergency rule on Tuesday suggested a more forceful posture toward protesters who have occupied parts of the city during the past two months and are seeking to overthrow the government.

 

But officials said they had no plans to crack down on protesters, who have escalated their campaign over the past week by blocking government offices, taking over major intersections and staging daily marches across Bangkok. The emergency decree enacted Tuesday gives the government the power to invoke curfews, censor the news media, disperse gatherings and use military force to “secure order.”

More importantly, those wondering if the current episode will degenerate into the same lethal clashes as were last seen in 2010 when dozens died, are keeping a close eye on what the local army is doing. Here it is in a nutshell from Bloomberg:

Thai army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha says the military will provide needed support to police in managing violence linked to anti-govt protests in Bangkok.

 

Prayuth declines to comment on whether it was necessary for the govt to use emergency decree; On Jan. 20, he said the situation now was not the same as in 2010, the last time the emergency decree was used to control protests.

 

“It is worrying that divisions in society and families have widened,” Prayuth tells reporters. “I’m concerned how we can live together if people are divided and don’t lower the degree of violence. If conflicts remain, no matter how we enforce the law, it will be dangerous”

 

Prayuth urges people on both sides of the political divide to hold talks to “find a way out” and says using violent tactics to curb protests “could worsen the situation”

One thing is sure: no matter if Thailand manages to temporarily shove the current bout of social anger under the rug, such escalations in which the poor, with little to lose, lash out against their governments, are sure to become a far more frequenty fixture of daily lives. Let's hope that the Davos billionaires who are meeting right now to fix just this thing, have a quick and painless resolution to this biggest problem modern society is facing. We are not holding our breath.

 

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Wed, 01/22/2014 - 10:55 | 4355252 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

yeah... they better start buying gold in case...

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 10:57 | 4355260 youngman
youngman's picture

This will hurt the Tourism.....jus sayin..

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 10:58 | 4355268 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

YEAH! NO MORE FUCKY FUCK FOR A LONG TIME!

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 12:52 | 4355646 Miles Ahead
Miles Ahead's picture

"...such escalations in which the poor, with little to lose, lash out against their government"

OMG, does everything have to fit the ZH narrative?  I mean, I'm the biggest ZH fan on here - really.  But let's have someone write about Thailand who knows what they're talking about.  You really think this is "escalations in which the poor lash out against their governments"?

Not even close.  It's Rich v Rich. Is a chess game ever pawns v pawns even though most pieces are pawns?  Well, now you get it?

Come on, be smart.  Rich royalist types, earlier settlers - Tais who largely blended with or displace Siamese vs. later settlers, more Chinese in make-up at this date since the earlier ones mixed more.  You see a lot of poor jumping around, blowing whistles, clapping plastic feet?  Do you know how much it takes to get them to do that? 3-500 baht/day perhaps.

And imagine how rich you gotta be to pay all them folks that amount per day for weeks on end.

Rich v Rich.  It's not rocket science.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 22:33 | 4357658 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

Yes, its true. it is two rich factions of chinese fighting over who will get th ecountry when the king finally passes away. but for the people protesting it is very real. Like ants that dont see the boots of the people towering over them

 

go into any shop or factory, see the white chinese counting the money while the brown thais do the work for 9000 baht per month. the chinese teach them to hate the farang white foreinger so as to distract them from who really has stolen the country. Hell, we dont even notice old movies from the 60s and 70s are all brown skin thai actors and today all white skin chinese actors and we go to buy skin whitening cream. even usa media has not been able to brainwash like the chinese have done to thailand.

 

still, having said all that, if you have to choose between old rich thai clique and thaksin clique you will choose old clique becasue they spread their wealth around and shared the corruption, but thaksin kept it all for himself. that is the real reason everyone revolted against him.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:03 | 4355278 Cookie
Cookie's picture

The situation is hugely complex. These two articles provide information I have not seen elsewhere

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-02-170114.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-130114.html

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:04 | 4355284 Sudden Debt
Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:09 | 4355294 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"A leader of a pro-government faction was shot"

 

There's his problem right there, supporting the oppressors.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:11 | 4355298 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Venezuela
Argentina
Ukraine
Thailand
Costa Rica
Turkey

and

Detroit

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:35 | 4355350 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

Venezuela
Argentina
Ukraine
Thailand
Costa Rica
Turkey

and

Detroit

...All Bush's fault...Had the Democrats (Clinton) been in charge, none of this would have happened....wait...they were in charge.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:44 | 4355377 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Sovereign countries are getting in real trouble more and more. I'm waiting until it spreads to southern Europe. This will spread and hit us all in the face.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 13:05 | 4355700 Miles Ahead
Miles Ahead's picture

So many Thai experts here since there are 3-4 Thai restaurants in every major city.  And of course a few have taken short vacations here once or twice to scout out the ladyboys.

But Thailand is hardly in that list above.  Unless I'm missing something.  Thailand, Ukraine, Detroit... hmmm (scratches head)

W/re to those two, Thailand is safer even continuing in this state forever than Detroit or 90% of American cities could be.  This may look bad in the news, but the curfew is at 9PM, and I'm just getting in around midnight.  Who cares about a curfew.  A few get popped here and there, but let's put Bangkok today up against Chicago or Atlanta or LA on a typical day.

Sure there will be one day when they put on the big fireworks display and kill a few more, but I bet it will be less that a typical kid shooting up his school or Post Office in say... (fill in the town).

When I want my Kao Niao Mamuang (mango sticky rice) I'm gonna get it and walking through the mob and getting it at the mob's food stand is at most another Facebook opportunity.

So replace Thailand with Syria. Or Chicago. There.  Fixed it.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 22:35 | 4357637 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

hah, everything you say is so true. but remember, nothing here is as it seems. when it finally all comes apart don't be surprised if the breakdown is extreme; everyone will be quick to snatch your khao niow ma mung out of your mouth and leave you floating face down in a klong after cleaning out your condo and taking your watch and the ring from your finger

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:23 | 4355312 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

Martin Armstrong is clearly mad. Having said that he makes an excellent point - Thailand and Ukraine and others is ultimately about the masses becoming really pissed off about the constant corruption at the top.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 11:52 | 4355400 ZeroHedgeFan
ZeroHedgeFan's picture

Thanks for the article. The conclusion is a bit off. This statement is not true:

"in which the poor, with little to lose, lash out against their governments"

It's actually the rich and middle class that lash out against the corrupted Yingluck government. The poor are those who support the government.

My Thai friends who went to Europe trip with me join the anti-government protesters. They keep me updates with news.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 12:29 | 4355565 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Of course, the government provides many handouts to the lower class, buying votes.  This all sounds haunting familiar...

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 08:38 | 4358302 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

Think Obamaphone on steroids but with no printing press

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 13:09 | 4355714 Miles Ahead
Miles Ahead's picture

Thank you.  The poor are actually on the side of the richest and most corrupt!  Hell, those guys gave them $1 hospital visits - for damn near everything.  Among a whole host of other bennies.  So the conclusion is actually worthless - entirely inverted to be honest.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 22:18 | 4357611 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

by the way, there was no funding for all those state hospitals that were forced to take the 30 baht plan. most of them now are bankrupt. go into any local state hospital and you will hardly even find a doctor, but long, long lines of people getting worthless antibiotics and pain killers for things like cancer and heart disease.the medical system is completely broken here for the poor.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 22:15 | 4357603 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

Are you serious? Who is more rich than Thaksin Shinawatra? Look at the protestors, they are not rich, they are middle and lower middle class. they hate this government because it has stolen the country's wealth and Thaksin has tried to install his family as permanent overloards in every post in state, military and police. These people know they will end up like usa slaves to government with no chance to move up the econmic ladder if the usa backed Thaksin can completely take over. that is why they are fighting the government.

 

http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2014/01/thailand-protests-neither-clas...

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 12:45 | 4355616 linrom
linrom's picture

Marc Faber still likes the girls over there.

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 22:10 | 4357591 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

Girls, as far as he knows

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 22:09 | 4357588 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

TOTALLY FALSE REPORTING by western media on Thaland.

Let's be clear about the red shirts, they are not a group of government supporters, they are Thaksin Shinawatra's local level enforcers in areas where his ruling party controls the local governments, mostly the north and northeast. They are the ones who attacked bangkok in 2010.

The NYT and Time Magazine in particular have been very misleading in their reporting on Thailand, maybe because the coporations that own them and the usa are backing the Thaksin government who is a crony of george soros.

Someone throws a grenade into the protestors and the government police have no idea who did it or why. Someone shoots at a red shirt organizer and they know instantly it is politically motivated.

 

For analysis on this in english that is honest, although a little emotional, see

http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/search/label/Thailand

To see the protestors first hand see

http://www.bangkokpost.com/multimedia/vdo/thailand/390909/anti-government-protests-a-foreign-academic-view

Wed, 01/22/2014 - 22:34 | 4357665 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

i tried to buy a ten baht gold bar at the gold shop today and was told there would be a five week wait. fist time that has every happened. necklaces and rings still plentiful but small bars are getting hard to find.

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