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Your Front Row Seat To Argentina's (Latest) Currency Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture





 

UPDATE: The Argentine Trade Balance missed surplus expectations by the most in 3 years (and 2nd most on record).

 

As those who follow Zero Hedge on twitter know, we have recently shown a keen interest in the collapse of the Argentine currency reserves - most recently at $29.4 billion - which have been declining at a steady pace of $100 million per day over the past week, as the central bank desperately struggles to keep its currency stable. Actually, make that struggled. Here is what we said just yesterday:

As of today it is not just the collapse in the Latin American country's reserves, but its entire currency, when this morning we woke to learn that the Argentina Peso (with the accurate identifier ARS), had its biggest one day collapse since the 2002 financial crisis, after the central bank stopped intervening in currency markets. The reason: precisely to offset the countdown we had started several days back, namely "an effort to preserve foreign exchange reserves that have fallen by almost a third over the last year" as FT reported.

As the chart below shows, the official exchange rate cratered by over 17% when the USDARS soared from 6.8 to somewhere north of 8.

But as most readers know, just like in Venezuela, where the official exchange rate is anywhere between 6.40 and 11, and the unofficial is 78.85, so in Argentina the real transactions occur on the black market, where they track the so-called Dolar Blue, which as of this writing just hit an all time high of 12.90 and rising fast.

What happens next? Nothing good. "The risk of capital flight is rising by the minute. This will be very hard to control,” wrote Dirk Willer, strategist at Citigroup, adding that liquidity had "largely disappeared" with a risk of Venezuela-style capital controls. Ah Venezuela - that socialist paradise with a soaring stock market... even if food or toilet paper are about to become a thing of the past.

Some other perspectives via the FT:

Siobhan Morden of Jeffries said: “This is not an administration that respects or understands market pressure. They have been in the early stages of currency crisis since December, and yet their main strategy has been to pay off arrears and try to attract foreign direct investment.”

 

Luis Secco, Buenos Aires economist, said "It is hard to figure out what is the logic behind the authourities decision to let the peso so abruptly, without any other accompanying macroeconomic policy. It’s possible that the authorities would rather see a strong rise in the dollar, than lose, again, a large quantity of reserves."

 

It is a potentially dangerous situation...not least because it could give the impression that the authorities don’t have a very clear idea of how to manage the situation.”

 

Ricardo Delgado, Buenos Aires economist, said on Wednesday: “The government faces a dilemma. It wants to stop reserves from falling. But that means less imports and thus lower growth, as the economy is very dependent on imports. So the question is: do you want more growth, or higher foreign reserves.“

However, with the "currency run" having once again begun, absent a wholesale bailout and/or backstop by "solvent" central banks of Argentina, a country which has hardly been on good speaking terms with the western central banks, there is little that the nation can do.

So for all those morbidly curious individuals who are curious what the slow-motion train wrecked death of yet another currency will look like, below is a link to the DolarBlue website, aka the front row seats where the true level of the Argentina currency can be seen in real time. If and when this number takes off parabolically, that's when the panic really begins - first in Argentina, then elsewhere.

 

Of course, it's not just Argentina - most of the world's emerging market FX is getting hammered year-to-date...

 


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Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:34 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Gold, bitchez!

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:38 | Link to Comment gold-is-not-dead
gold-is-not-dead's picture

maradonaaaaa

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:48 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Don't cry for me, Argentina.  Your FX reserves were all I ever wanted.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:53 | Link to Comment mmanvil74
mmanvil74's picture

Nice to see Bitcoin listed right there below gold (oro). If they act soon, they can still get one bitcoin for less than an ounce of gold....

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:55 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

"It was the [invisible] hand of God!"

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Oh, hey, what do you know, right after Argentina and Lesotho we have.... Canada!

Keep stacking, MFers (esp. those north of the 49th!)

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:55 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

All the stuff floating at the banks in Canada is...ummm...questionable now.  Lots of tungsten weight in what's being sold if you catch my drift.  How you can tell that's happening?  The Canadian mint sells the $100 dollar silver coin and not much else.  So if you are buying, make sure to check the resistence of the product sold, it might not entirely be gold, silver or platnium.  It's to the point the pawn shops test before talking turkey now.

Meanwhile the banks are 'giving it away' at market price.  How likely is that?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:51 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

No, that happens when people are really bad at math and pretending that capital is infinite in a finite world.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:57 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

That's correct mmanvil74.  Gold is very good as a local, historical store of value but Bitcoin simply beats it when it comes to transactional utility, speed and ease of payments.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:19 | Link to Comment JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

...when you have access to electricity.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:24 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Who cares?  When was the last global power outage you can think of?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:42 | Link to Comment JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Well, Argentina is having crazy power outages at the moment. If your money is in bitcoin and your country doesn't have power then how do you access your money?

I'm a little confused by your lack of understanding here...

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:45 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

You can always act poor.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:53 | Link to Comment madtechnician
madtechnician's picture

smartphone , laptop , tablet , even a shitty old motorola phone can run a simple bitcoin app. you can charge these from a 10 buck solar panel or a car charger , I mean , this is not exactly rocket science right ?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:20 | Link to Comment HellFish
HellFish's picture

You realize your little bitcoin app has to conncet to a network, right?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:25 | Link to Comment GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

I thought it was.....magic?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:19 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

If the electrical co. shuts your country's power off, go to another country.

You guys should just stop trying to think, it hasn't been working out well for you.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:26 | Link to Comment drink or die
drink or die's picture

Says the Canadian living in his mothers basement.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 03:00 | Link to Comment madtechnician
madtechnician's picture

So in your apocalyptic scenario is there any oxygen to breath or water to drink or is it just the electricity and phone / internet down ?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:17 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Oh, yeah?  All of Argentina's power is down?  LOL.  

How long will that last?  Probably indefinitely right?

 

Dumb.  Dumb.  Dumb.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 19:37 | Link to Comment JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

In Argentina? don't rule it out

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 18:17 | Link to Comment cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

@ johnnybriefcase: I blew coffee on my keyboard with that one! I didn't think anyone was confused by fonestar the bitcoin troll extraordinaire. He has a script and he is sticking to it. Do not confuse him with facts. Do not tell him that in the future his local dairy farmer will give him a bemused look at best and the north end of a rifle at worst in response to his offer of digital fiat for a quart of milk. I just wish I could be there on that day when his bitcoin USB drive does not work and the world has moved on without him.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 20:26 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

The Bitcoiners won't bother dealing with your "local dairy farm" face to face.  They will contact their people and have them buy the whole damn farm or run them off their land.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 01:35 | Link to Comment Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

meh

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:31 | Link to Comment DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Until it gets hacked.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:35 | Link to Comment madtechnician
madtechnician's picture

Oh yeah when the Russian's finally invent that quantitative computer thingy everybody says will crack the bitcoin code.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:05 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

By "ease of payments" are you referring to paying for things like rent, mortage, gas, and food, or do you consider these things non-essential trivialities?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 20:06 | Link to Comment rex-lacrymarum
rex-lacrymarum's picture

I have nothing against bitcoin, but this argument doesn't really make much sense. There are a number of digital payment services based on gold available (such as Turk's Goldmoney), which are in no way different in terms of 'transactional utility, spead and ease of payment' to use your wording. The main difference is that instead of bitcoins moving from one wallet to another, gold grams in a vault get reassigned from one account to another. 

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Gold sales have been banned in Argentina since 2012. Lose the Socialist bitch, Bitchez!

Edit- For the socialist diehards, Here's a link on the gold ban from Ferfal,

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2012/09/gold-sale-banned-in-argentina.html

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:10 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

Starting to see a building emerging market crisis coming. If China gets into trouble it will be global.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 18:46 | Link to Comment eurogold
eurogold's picture

Try finding Gold in any form now in Argentina to buy....good luck

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:41 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I think she passed a law that outlawed buying gold too...

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:45 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Gold is not important.  Oil is.

And this is what happens to a country that relies on it and then it runs short.  See YPF.

And soon, see the Bakken.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:52 | Link to Comment PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

Wish there was a practical way to stack petroleum.....

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

If there were a way for you to stack petroleum to save yourself, she would have also banned it.  Like Maduro, she's a Socialist who knows what she's doing.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:42 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

@crash:  dead x 2  (Vaca Muerte, muerte)

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:43 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Meanwhile in India, if you had not converted your undeclared income into real estate or gold, you are plumb out of luck.  Good luck exchanging your undeclared old fiat notes for newer ones.  But, perhaps, you can still buy some gold and silver before the deadline even though they are at 15% to 20% premiums to international prices:

Reserve Bank to withdraw all pre-2005 currency notes from circulation

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank on Wednesday decided to withdraw all currency notes issued prior to 2005, including Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denominations, after March 31 in a move apparently aimed at curbing black money and fake currencies. 

"After March 31, 2014, it (RBI) will completely withdraw from circulation all bank notes issued prior to 2005. From April 1, 2014, the public will be required to approach banks for exchanging these notes," the RBI said in a statement. 

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Reserve-Bank-...

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Kprime
Kprime's picture

the time is right, worldwide, for a bitcoin style currency beyond control of governments.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:38 | Link to Comment madtechnician
madtechnician's picture

"bitcoin style" ? - it's already here and it's actually already called bitcoin.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 05:42 | Link to Comment Kprime
Kprime's picture

in theory bitcoin could work. 

I'm just not smart enough to know if bitcoin is actually government proof, yet.  It make take a few more iterations before that goal is achieved.  Time tells all.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Argos
Argos's picture

I was thinking that something like this would happen here when they came out with the new 100's. 

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:22 | Link to Comment The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

Wonder if America will try the same thing,? flush out the preppers and druggies not paying ( depositors tax )

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 18:29 | Link to Comment cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

Not if but when and probably sooner than later. The one thing you can count on is that the banksters / cabal have yet another crash / war / confiscation / ponzi scheme (insert any other example of financial slavery) all prepped and ready to go. They have even bought the celebratory cigars and Bronfman will supply the booze once the trap has been sprung. I must say that nothing warms the CB's hearts more that printing a few trillion $ and handing them out for favors across the globe and then changing the design on the $100 bill and declaring all others null and void. Who didn't see that coming?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

"After March 31, 2014, it (RBI) will completely withdraw from circulation all bank notes issued prior to 2005."

 

I cry BS! They are taking a stab at inflation there. Won't work though.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:44 | Link to Comment madtechnician
madtechnician's picture

Bitcoin, Bit-chez

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:43 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

She can call Maduro for help....he can send some price controls...lol

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:45 | Link to Comment maskone909
maskone909's picture

or some assassins to kill the desenters

desaparecidos

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:46 | Link to Comment bigrooster
bigrooster's picture

Farmers banks in China out of cash and now Argentina's currency collapse.  2014 is shaping up to be pretty exciting year.

 

Disclaimer:  Long beans, bullets and booze.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:36 | Link to Comment JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

I'm trying to go long booze, but it keeps running out.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:42 | Link to Comment FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

I used to drink a lot, and I sobered up for this?!

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 18:50 | Link to Comment eurogold
eurogold's picture

Who would have thought that chaotic Argentina would turn out to be the domino that starts the global collapse ?

 

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Battle dressing

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 18:41 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

But its just the Dong farmers banks that are out of cash and Dongs aren't selling all that well anyway. So who cares. Besides, I'm perfectly happy with my old dong and see no need for a new one - especially a Chinese dong.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Bet you didn't know that Argentina used to have a huge gold reserve at one time.

Venezuela's repatriated gold (under Hugo Chavez) won't remain there much longer either, as the Core of the global cartel of CBs will demand they these sovereigns relinquish their Precious... to GS & Friends.  Under the new "Trash for Gold" program.

Only a handful of strong sovereign hands are allowed to hold large amounts (percentages) of gold.  E.g. US, UK, Israel, Russia, China, India.  Looking at this list, I realize that all have nukes.  The magical/holy Trinity seems to be:  Energy, Nukes, Gold. 

It's a small club, and Argentina & Venezuela ain't in it.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:46 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Isn't that Casey Research guy hold up down there with a bunch of Expats and other gold bugs?

Something seems different in the world finincial news today.

Is it time to move to Pittsburgh?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Testudo321
Testudo321's picture

It really doesn't matter.

Either you move to Pittsburgh or Pittsburgh moves to you.

Everything is going down the drain and it will continue to do so for quite some time.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

http://www.lec.com.ar

Here it is....hoping to visit in February.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 18:43 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Yeah Doug Casey and a bunch of his disciples "own" a bunch of McMansions in northwestern Argentina but they have nothing to worry about since foreigners' assets are safe from confiscation.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:47 | Link to Comment twh99
twh99's picture

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of socialists.

 

I guess they are about to find out what happens when you run out of other people's money.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:57 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

actually i have been there, and they are pretty self reliant bunch, with a low population and lots of resources. they are trying to be free of the global wide financial mafia, and so the usual tricks are done to bring them down. 

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Tell us more. What did you see? What did the people say? What's going on down there?

Sincerely,

Beef

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

"I guess they are about to find out what happens when you run out of other people's money."

...and their own.  In another news item on ZH, there is no Money at the Chinese Socialist Cotillion, held in the countryside (Note: Avoid the hayrides).

See, NOBODY SAVES ANYTHING.

 

Who knew?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Kprime
Kprime's picture

Coming to a country near you, sooon.  Japan, Britan, and my all time favorite, USofAssholes.

Week long kegger party at my house when this article is written about the US.  and yes, mj is legal for recreational purposes.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:53 | Link to Comment PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

Cheering for the demise of the United States?

Here's a big FUCK YOU, asshole.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

Maybe he, like most of the rest of us, is sick to death of the fucked up fascist police state that the US has become.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:01 | Link to Comment Kprime
Kprime's picture

you are a special kinda stupid aren't you.

I love the US.  I am Cheering for the demise of the totally corrupt government and the blatant thef by fiat.  (jeeez, I hope I don't have to break that down for you, i may need to get bigger crayons)

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:09 | Link to Comment PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

Ah, how cute.

Deploying the latest insider insult terminology here on.... snicker.... "Fight Club".

You are a "Special Kind" of clueless jackass if you think you and yours won't be effected by this admittedly inevitable disaster.

But hey, anti-US sentiment is oh so hip and fashionable.

Prepare and be aware, but celebrate?! Stupid shit.

Party on.  Dude.

 

:

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Drifter
Drifter's picture

You're a special kind of stupid if you think the corrupt govt can be taken down without America going down with it.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Well that's the only shot we got. Because the system is taking the people apart as we speak.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:48 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not really sure this is something I'd want a "front row seat" to.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:49 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Perhaps she should nationalize all the remaining PM miners. They are clearly the root cause of ALL of Argentina's problems.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

And gold inches out bitcoin by a nose. Sorry bitcoin, better luck next time.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Doc, Doc, Doc.  As I've stated numerous time before -- and will keep repeating until the message sinks in...

Pitting Gold vs. Crypto-Currencies is a FALSE argument -- designed to deflect and redirect from the TRUE argument:

[1] PARALLEL ECONOMY = Barter + Cash + PM + BTC/LTC + Real_Assets... = Free-market driven = Free-market economy

[2] OFFICIAL ECONOMY = Fiat Debt_Currency + Debt (Credit) + Bonds + Derivatives = CB-driven = Centrally-planned economy

1. Get clarity, 2. Pick a side and 3. Keep your focus.  :-)

p.s. Personally, I'm in favor of having a mix from the Parallel Economy.  What one asset (vehicle) won't do for you, another one will -- depending on the circumstances and goals.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Actually I own bitcoin (well as much as you can own a digital currency) as well as gold. I just like to stir the pot on occasion. Having said that we are in complete agreement.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:05 | Link to Comment fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

I love the idea of both! Hell diversifcation is investing 101. I just love trolling bitcoin acoltyes!  

Bitcoin has yet to be tested under all sorts of scenarios, government laws, loss of power, hacking, new ecryption techinques, etc, etc, which I think bitcoin will pass.

But Gold has been tested for 5,000+ years. You hold it you own it, you can wear it, store it, exchange it, power or no power, its the currency of kings.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:47 | Link to Comment withglee
withglee's picture

But Gold has been tested for 5,000+ years. You hold it you own it, you can wear it, store it, exchange it, power or no power, its the currency of kings.

And you can be forced to give your gold to the government if they demand it ... read the history.

People. There's no substitute for a properly managed Medium of Exchange where INFLATION is guaranteed to be zero at all times everywhere and trading promises are freely certified, integrity being maintained by collecting INTEREST equal to DEFAULTs.

All of these failures stem from a complete disconnect between trading promises, money, interest, and defaults. All the degrees of freedom are flapping in the wind calling each other wrong. And it's never the traders causing the problems. It's governments and bankers ... the former a total parasite and the latter, an international farmer maintaining the so-called business cycle to sustain continuous profits.

With a properly managed MOE, BitCoin, gold, the dollar, and governments are all toast.

Todd Marshall
Plantersville, TX

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 00:14 | Link to Comment MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

Withglee+RadM=skull sweat ; ) Todd, do you think BitCoin could be the one that forces the others to negotiate for your MOE? I think BTC can deliver. Why? Because I, with great due respect, think you and RadM, (and fonestar?LOL), are not fully appreciating what else the BitCoin boxcar can contain. I got this clue from Verbot. OC Sure helped me awaken that long forgotten memory. 

Where is that redress of grievances? For (OC) sure, maybe it's in the satoshis. It is in the blockchain. BTC is The Petition for Redress. And for the skeptics worried about having your 'wealth' stolen, it's your Voice they are really after. One measly satoshi is all one needs to sign The Petition for redress of grievances. (help me out CPL/fonestar/digi/hound73 et al, how can the protocol be employed for this?) It can't be counterfeited (diebold'd). Think of it as Arlo Guthrie's Alice's Restaurant: three people! walking in, singing a bar of Alice's restaurant... LOL! Well if 300,000,000 Americans each sent their one satoshi to the Continental Congress/Article V Convention, the D.C. critters might just get a f'ing clue! Hard to CogDis/MSM that away.

Do you have a grievance? ROFLMAO, only Lloyd and Jamie might say "no"! Then stand and deliver via your satoshi. Trolls aside, we're all here at ZH because we have grievances (great courage Willy Groper).

withglee, RadM suggests that 'the government', as we were brought up to believe is this, that, and the other, is in truth, 'Since 1913',  the bankers. I suggest to you that the "international farmers" are the insurance companies, the real parasites, because they make a profit off of sustaining the banks continuous profits. In Rad's bizzarro mirror world, we believe they insure us when the radical truth is that they are really insuring... the banks. If you don't have anything 'banked', and you didn't pay your insurance, well, we know what happens...

We need to burn/"toast" banks and insurance, not "government". BTC might be the spark, gawd knows the fuel is out there contained in all of us the world over, more ready to explode with each passing day. Time for 'government' to be freed too, to do 'gawd's work' as DecOfInd Declared. Is the real MOE a handshake? 

We The People+ Bitcoin=

A Farewell To Kings http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV-5iNu6Sd8 (look! over there! a Swan!)

(phew, oh my aching skull)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 13:52 | Link to Comment withglee
withglee's picture

Todd, do you think BitCoin could be the one that forces the others to negotiate for your MOE?

No. And I don't think our current MOE will be replaced by force. It will be replaced by something better. That "something better" does not make the false assumption that money must be backed by something scarce. Rather, it "knows" money is "a promise to complete a trade". It is created by traders getting their promises certified (like the promise you make when you buy a house with a mortgage). It is extinguished by traders delivering on their promises. And DEFAULTs are reclaimed and extinguished through INTEREST collections. The relation INFLATION = DEFAULT - INTEREST guarantees zero inflation at all times everywhere under such a system. It guarantees that the MOE in circulation is exactly equal to the MOE demanded ... it's the equality nature of a trade.

I  do think BitCoin's resistance to counterfeiting should be adopted in a properly managed MOE. If someone comes up with a BitCoin that is created by a trader's promise (rather than wasting electricity) and extinguished on delivery on that promise (rather than never) and is always in perfect balance (rather than guaranteed to be deflationary) ... then we will have what is needed.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 11:40 | Link to Comment withglee
withglee's picture

withglee, RadM suggests that 'the government', as we were brought up to believe is this, that, and the other, is in truth, 'Since 1913',  the bankers. I suggest to you that the "international farmers" are the insurance companies, the real parasites, because they make a profit off of sustaining the banks continuous profits.

Re the government: I'm with Larken Rose on this.

Re the bankers are the government: Agreed ... but our current slavery goes back to Rothschild, not just back to1913. We had a nice little free run between Andrew Jackson and 1913 but it was chaotic because the currency (MOE) was not properly managed.

Re international farmers are the insurance companies: Insurance companies are necessary, but they very easily become scams. The key is not regulation ... it's transparency. Let anyone who wants see their books and the scamming becomes infinitely more difficult. The farming operation is the banks' practice of changing their lending policies in a cycle. Lend easy (plant and grow), tighten and call loans (harvest). They call it the business cycle.

Re profits: In a properly managed MOE there is almost no profit to be made. Thus, it must be nearly "costless" to manage. Now, the banks major cost is defaults. Their profit is interest - defaults. But their real money is made in leveraging this difference (i.e. fractional reserve). And when there is a major reversal, like we're currently in, make the public pick up the losses. That is where the scam is. It's also ridiculous that when someone trades for a house, they have to buy it four times: once for the insurance; once for the interest; once for the taxes; and once for the house.

Re insurance profits: In insurance, claims equal premiums. The money is made on the investment income. An unscrupulous insurance company makes money from premiums - claims. We rely on regulators to police this. In no time the police become the crooks. I don't think regulation works. I think transparency works.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Per the Rothschilds, the real BTFD moment arrives when "there's blood in the streets".

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:51 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, but think of what a boost this will be to their exports!  (Stolen from an other ZH member earlier today without attribution)

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Confundido
Confundido's picture

ARG since May did to the USD what the BIS did to gold since 2011. They sold USD denominated assets from the pension fund to bring it down from 10 pesos to around 7 pesos, by June. It did not last too long, did it? Why? Because unlike the case of gold, the info on the ratio of paper USD to reserves is public and the public was aware of the bargain it meant to sell pesos and buy dollars.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Kprime
Kprime's picture

it occurs to me, at $300-$500 per ounce, weed is a good store of value and trade-able.

 

I have been wondering with the release of the new $100 bills, how long before the US withdraws the older currency for the same reasons?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:23 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

you can store weed?

 

never worked for me...

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:34 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

BONG 3x daily inverse weed index (bear)

BOWL 3x daily weed index (bull)

 

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I admit to almost no knowledge of Argentina's economy. But I had a friend in Scotland, an older gentleman, whose brother had helped engineer railroads in Argentina back in the late 50's. He told me years ago, like in the 80's, that his brother said that Argentina should be one of the richest countries on earth, given the resources and population density. He said that at one time Argentina was famous for a large middle class and great wealth, but that for generations now it has been one economic failure after another. He said that corruption in government and lazy people combined to destroy a once growing rich economy. I wonder, perhaps his brother was right, he worked there for over 20 years and should know. I suspect a rich oligarcy has a death grip on wealth and prevents any real business people for operating, they see each new busnessman as another cow to milk for bribes and to tax for money to keep the useless Argentine military in booze and whores. The people hate the oligarcy and look to socialism for help, which only makes it all worse.

From what I read, from mexico south to Argentina, government corruption at all levels is the norm, and everyone must pay. The local cop shakes you down for bribes all the way up the line.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

"From what I read, from mexico south to Argentina, government corruption at all levels is the norm, and everyone must pay."

"From what I read, from the Arctic, south to Antarctica, government corruption at all levels is the norm, and everyone must pay."

FIFY

 

 

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

You're right about a small, private Oligarchy ruling Argentina -- like feudal lords.

When I visited Chile last spring, I was told that its true seat of power lies in the 12 elite families that own or control most of the economy/assets.  It seems that this group is doing a better job than the group in Argentina, in terms of competence: Vision, Planning and Execution.  They seem to have a more 'Teutonic' view of life and economics than the "hey, enjoy life" Argies.

This hidden reality can be extrapolated to numerous countries, I strongly suspect.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Thanks for that insight Kirk@NCC1701. One of the things that interests me about Argentina is the strong influx of Europeans back in the late 1800's and on up to Post World War II. I have seen on some programs about Argentina that you can still find some small towns and villages in rural Argentina that are nearly German in language and ethnic make up, with a strong addition of the Spanish influnce as well. The people, the German Ethnic people I mean, seemed to have lost much of that Teutonic drive for progress and ambition for work that Germans are famous for. The ethnic Germans, while keeping beautiful homes and shops and maintaining high standards of personal grooming, and keeping up German traditions, seem to really have that laid back Argentine way of looking at life. Sort of, the days are long and let someone else get the work done, we are in no hurry. Tomorrow we will work, maybe, today lets just take some time for relaxing.

If the Germans have lost the work ethic, I suspect the average Argentine person is not highly motivated to work hard. Resources are rich and abundant, land is plentyful and much of it rich. I wonder what a few Chinese given those lands could do in 10 years time?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 19:02 | Link to Comment eurogold
eurogold's picture

You are wrong about the Germans in Argentina. Germans are only the fifth largest immigrant group there, and represent a small fraction of the population. But you go on talking about that group of immigrants as if you had a clue.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Tell us more. Who are the largest groups? What are they doing there?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:18 | Link to Comment bigfire
bigfire's picture

70 years ago Argentinian voters discovered they can vote themself infinite amount of benefit via taxes on the other guys.  Coming soon to United States of America.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Things look bad for the leadership in Argentina.  Time to start the Falklands/Malvinas feud again.

 

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Socialism is such a good idea.

 

Hey Argentina......C-YA!!!!

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:57 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey - oh my !

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

It seems that you need Oil+Gold+Nukes to make it into the Inner Circle of CBs, who won't be pushed around in the global "Gold for Trash*" program.

* GS paperware:  MBS, Bonds, USTs, Derivatives...

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 14:57 | Link to Comment ...out of space
...out of space's picture

didnt cristina fernandez, just before peso start to fall apart tell people not to exchange it for a usd and then they  recorded her  how she exchange 100 usd for peso in the name of patriotisem

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Anyone else notice that the world and its countries, who should be fine, go from financial crisis to financial crisis under this world wide banking scam?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:13 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

One of Newsweek’s final cover proclamation's was "We Are All Socialists Now.”  But if Newsweek were still around, it could proclaim: “We Are All Argentines Now.”

Because, in addition to the socialist system that the International Bankers have saddled us with, they continue their tyrannical practice of currency manipulation. And manipulation is just a long word meaning theft.

“Don't believe the happy talk coming out of the White House, Federal Reserve and Treasury Department when it comes to the real unemployment rate and the true ‘Misery Index,’” writes columnist Paul Bedard in the Washington Examiner. “Because, according to an influential Wall Street advisor, the figures are a fraud.

“In a memo to clients provided to Secrets, David John Marotta calculates the actual unemployment rate of those not working at a sky-high 37.2 percent, not the 6.7 percent advertised by the Fed, and the Misery Index at over 14, not the 8 claimed by the government.

“Marotta, who recently advised those worried about an imploding economy to get a gun, said that the government isn't being honest in how it calculates those out of the workforce or inflation, the two numbers used to get the Misery Index figure.”

http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2542604#null

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

I'm going to go read more Cormac McCarthy and meditate on fighting for one's life.

In the meantime, I hope those with first hand knowledge of Argentina will share it with us ignorant folks on the ZH.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Travelling to Buenos Aires tomorrow........

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:28 | Link to Comment the black arrow
the black arrow's picture

@ gromit.

When I was in BA in June I brought many 100.00 and 50.00 USD notes.

It would have been better to bring 5,10,20s in retrospect. It was easy to change 100.00 for 750 pesos, blue dolar rate in June but for daily operations such as lunch and wine 5s and 10s would have been better

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

Damn. Last time I was in Buenos Aires it seemed so cheap. Now...hoo-boy.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 19:05 | Link to Comment eurogold
eurogold's picture

Getting cheaper by the minute !

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Bullish for used BMW and MBZ market in Argentina.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

a lunatic asylum - swapping one piece of toilet paper for another....

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:35 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Repsol is collapsed with Argentinian Bonds

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 15:36 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

silverbugs should take note...in this kind of inflationary environment the local currency remains in use until it fails. There is no use of metal as a medium of exchange. Gold is the metal that best preserve store of value. Notice India is not banning the importation of silver, only gold. Get gold, physical. Silver prices can collapse if there is an economic downturn due to its industrial use. Gold will rise due to its use as a monetary asset.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:11 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Not much interest in owning gold in Buenos Aires......Physical US Dollars is the hedge of choice.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:43 | Link to Comment SilverSavant
SilverSavant's picture

Wrong conclusions right down the line.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

I wanted to buy a gold plated bar of tungsten just to have, but they're really expensive. It still takes over an ounce of gold to coat a bar of tungsten.

http://www.tungsten-alloy.com/gold-plated-tungsten-alloy-bar.html

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:12 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Doesn't anyone want to buy a share of netflix for $400??!

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:22 | Link to Comment kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Argentina and the poor Argentinians have been falling and rolling down a very long hillside over the last 100 years.--it just never stops for them.

Maybe one day they will say enough and take up arms. One can only hope.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 19:28 | Link to Comment eurogold
eurogold's picture

Argentines have been dealing with crisis situations and corrupt governments for a long time. Argentines are experts on getting by / around  such situations. Vital skills that Americans will be learning in the very near future....Good luck !

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 02:38 | Link to Comment TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Well, at least we don't have to sell sovereign bonds to get permission to print our (little, minor) pesos.

We'll survive. More than that, I've got a geiger counter today. Our food, air and land, at least in my region, is fully radiation free.

You know, as I do, that our "collapses" are TPTB made. They wanted our Central Bank, to control our Economy and Finances as they do with most of Western countries. They tried to push for it to become a private one as in the US, Europe, Japan, etc.-

They've been pushing for years to "dolarize" our economy. Not there yet.

Meanwhile, we produce food (radiation free for now), for kind of 700 milion people. We know we're not poor and we know that's why a lot of Power is pushing for as to become another Central Bankers' begger for currency,

It's hard to resist such powers. But we have plenty of resources and other "minor" essencials.

Please, keep your fleet busy elsewhere.

Best regards.

 

By the way, have you heard Abe's speach at Davos?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 16:30 | Link to Comment ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Where's the promised link to follow?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Looking at the second image (Global Currency Change YTD), I am not surprised at the hammering that many of the obscure (minor) currencies are getting.

But, what's up with the CAD, the Loony?  Why is it getting hammered?  The only G8 (G20?) to get spanked.  WTF?

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 07:14 | Link to Comment TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

I can't understand how US citizens, european citizens, can talk so lightly about "latin american countries corruption" at the same time they're ruled and smashed by the World's most corrupted élite and that élite controls not only the Economy, Finance, military but also the governments, Congress, Justice System.

And TPTB who rules all over the "First World" States uses taxpayers money and resources to commit any kind of crimes all over the World, considering also what they've done to us and to the people of EACH Latin American Country.

I KNOW as most of you should know our "crisis" weren't and aren't due to the argentineans.

Make a little research on History, your own History, pals.

 

 

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Tell us more. Seriously, there is lots of knowledge to be gained here. Knowing what they have wrought there, and how they did it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!