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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Posts First Monthly Drop In One Year

Tyler Durden's picture





 

And the hits just keep on coming: after the atrocious Durable Goods number, it was the turn of the Case Shiller housing data, which reported what many already knew - in November the 20 City Composite index (the Non-seasonally adjusted version which as the report's authors acknowledge is the accurate one) posted its first monthly decline, dropping modestly from 165.9 to 165.8, or down 0.06%, since November of 2012. And while on an annual basis, the increase was still a solid 13.71%, up from October's 13.61%, these backward looking numbers will quite soon turn sharply negative once the sharp bounce in 2013 - driven not by a housing recovery but by institutional all cash buyers and foreign money launderers seeking to park their cash in the US - get anniversaried.

Finally confirming that the upward momentum is indeed over was none other than that bustling metropolis - bankrupt Detroit - which would not see a downward monthly print come hell or polar vortex, until it finally did in November, when monthly prices dipped by a tiny 0.1%: the first drop since February 2013. Oh well, the housing non-recovery was fun while it lasted.

 


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Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I don't need any housing charts. Just drive thru town and See all the for sale signs, yet no one ever seems to sell a house that isn't foreclosed. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:39 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Property prices down, beef and dairy prices up?  There has never been a better time to buy a hobby farm. 

Our family dinner of grass-fed beef from the offspring of our triple-purpose Milking Shorthorn, home-grown sweet potatoes mashed with fresh ginger and a little cayenne, stir-fried kale and cauliflower from the garden, and a glass of raw milk.

What's in your refrigerator?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:49 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I had a hard-boiled egg, a glass of OJ and a cigarette for breafast.  Does that count?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

I had some powdered doughnuts and a shot of Jim Beam. I'm good to go, but I'll need a nap around noon.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:58 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

I am sure the beautiful environment that you live in makes it worthwhile to eat and drink that poison.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:01 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Poison? Who the hell cares?? I gots me Obamacare. Keep Obama in President!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

It's the concrete jungle diet.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:10 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

concrete jungle diet more like a handful of SSRI's with a Starbucks chaser.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:14 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

If you can't bite, don't show your teeth.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Horseman....I'm on a damn diet. Stop posting shit like this!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:34 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

What is a damn diet?  Is it like a South Beach Diet?

For Sale
SOUTH BEACH
5025 Collins Ave,
#804, Miami Beach, FL 33140
2 bed, 2 full bath, 1,410 sqft Condo
$1,175,000

 

Versus a 102 acre compound with 3 houses, a barn, and a greenhouse, in The Hill Country of Texas for $1,400,000...no beach, but there is a pool...

PS: Bandera is a very cool town, with excellent night life, lots and lots of cowboys and cowgirls, and the trail running at the State Park is world class

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

Enough place to grown your own food, for 3? families. Nice :)

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

OT - but damn, the PBOC has bailed out #1 Gold Trust! I wanted a default for the new year :)

 

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/china-s-rich-know-bailouts-equal-gold-no-1.html

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Haha now I can get that sweet little hovel in Detroit for $9.90!  Suckers!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Bosch
Bosch's picture

Let's see AAPL, Durable goods, & Case Shiller all hit the shitter.  If there is a god with a sense of humor he'll send the DOW down about 500 points on state of the union day.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:35 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

was thinking the same thing.  Heads are going to roll.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Bosch
Bosch's picture

Green, +67.  Clearly there isn't.  

 

But it is still early. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:57 | Link to Comment OwnSilverPlayMusic
OwnSilverPlayMusic's picture

But TWTR and FB are up 3%.  Things have never been better for bots

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Harry Dong
Harry Dong's picture

Looks like an inflection point to me...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:23 | Link to Comment BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Driving through San Diego last weekend we couldn't help but notice a 10X increase in the number of FOR SALE/OPEN HOUSE signs out to capture the weekend lookie-loos.  It felt like...the top and desperation is starting to set in

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Bosch
Bosch's picture

Thought the same thing as I was out for a run last night here in Florida.  

 

Market was actually fine in our neighborhood, everyone who bought were families that were moving inand remodeling & updating.  But last night I noticed that for-sale signs popped up out of nowhere.  We went from like 2 or 3 in our fairly big neighorbood to probably 12-15 in the last week.  

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

In my area of Minneapolis, if the seller bought the house prior to about 2001, they have enough equity and a low enough basis they have no trouble selling and coming out just fine.  If, on the other hand, they bought between about 2003 and 2008, they're screwed.  No way they have enough equity, and they have way too high a basis.  They aren't going to get an offer high enough for them to be able to accept it, in most cases.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Things Goin' on
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c80ErUAIaVs  (Lynyrd Skynyrd)

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:26 | Link to Comment FishHockers
FishHockers's picture

Even Obango wouldn't buy in Detroit, the mud hut in Kenya is much safer and nicer.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

The one at the end of my street now has a big BANK AUCTION banner on it. I guess that's the recovery the Feds are talking about. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:30 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Maybe seeing signs of housing bubble #2  starting to leak air.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:40 | Link to Comment dogmete
dogmete's picture

Here in Palo Alto (Shangri-la) things continue in boom mode. A smattering of for sale signs and you better have at least 1.5 million for a 2 bedroom 1 bath.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Judge Crater
Judge Crater's picture

Don't worry, tonight Obama will give you an explanation for this housing glitch and everything else in his State of the Union rap. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

NOW HAS NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME TO GET FLEECED BUYING A NEW HOME BEFORE RATES GO UP!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

Don't pull your dick out if you don't know how to fuck

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:01 | Link to Comment bh2
bh2's picture

All the properties sold to cash buyers have been taken off the market, reducing ultimate supply and expanding available rentals. What's left in some locations may be more like dregs the banks are still holding in search of suckers willing to pay somewhere near the mortgage amount which is well above market value. Problem is, there are few suckers not already broke and cash buyers back off as market prices rise and cash flow potential therefore falls.

Whether this means the market will revert downward remains to be seen. But any property having strong net cash flow potential likely moves to strong hands regardless of overall market conditions. If prices fall again, it seems likely cash buyers will return if the math makes sense.

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