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The 'Economic' State Of The Union
Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,
Tomorrow the President of the United States is set to deliver his annual "State Of The Union" address. This past week, I discussed the upcoming speech with Dave Boyer at the Washington Times who hit on some of the key issues that will be addressed:
"Mr. Obama’s nationally televised speech to a joint session of Congress will strike themes intended to fire up Democratic voters for the midterm elections, including proposals for a nearly 40 percent hike in the federal minimum wage and an extension of long-term unemployment benefits.
Aides say Mr. Obama also will remind lawmakers that he intends to issue more executive orders in this 'year of action' after criticizing the 2013 Congress as one of the most unproductive in history. He is expected to announce executive actions on job training and retirement security.
Mr. Obama also will renew the call for comprehensive immigration reform, one of the few legislative issues on which there still appears to be room for compromise between the president and House Republicans.
But the president is expected to focus on economic 'fairness' issues, such as the minimum wage, as part of his push to reverse increasing income disparity in America, which he calls 'the defining issue of our time.'"
While these particular issues are very politically and emotionally charged on both sides of the aisle; I think it is more useful to review "State Of The Union" from a data standpoint rather than a philosophical one. The real question that needs to answered, in my opinion is quite simple: "Are we better off today than we were when the current Administration took control?"
I leave you with the following series of charts to answer that question for yourself.
Government Debt
Since 2009, Government debt has surged by over $6 Trillion while real economic growth has only risen by $1.2 Trillion. However, even this number is inaccurate as the current government debt levels are actually higher than stated as the Treasury has been resorting to "extraordinary measures" to "pay bills" as Congress debates over increases in the current statutory debt limits.
Employment
While the current Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports currently shows the unemployment rate at 6.7%, that number is obfuscated by the 92.8 million workers that are currently not counted as part of the labor force. As I have discussed previously, when it comes to economic strength it is full-time labor that leads to household formation and higher consumption. The chart below shows the amount of full-time labor as a ratio of the working age population.
Personal Incomes
The annual rate of change in personal incomes has been on a decline since the turn of the century. This is a function of both the structural shift in employment (higher productivity = less employment and lower wage growth) and the drive to increase corporate profitability in the midst of weaker consumption.
The chart below shows the disparity betwen corporate profits and employment and wages. Full a more complete discussion on this issue read "Corporate Profits & Income Equality."
Government Assistance
The issue of declining incomes and rising "income inequality" is really best shown by the level of social benefits as a percentage of disposable incomes today. Today, roughly 1-in-3 households receive some form of government assistance.
Housing
When it comes to the economy, it is home ownership that is the reflection of economic well-being. Since 2009, the government has poured trillions of taxpayer dollars into the housing market to try and increase activity. The effect of those injections has only managed to return the total housing activity index back to its 2010 peak.
However, as I stated above, it is ultimately household formation that leads to higher levels of consumption and stronger economic growth. The chart below is from the recent missive on the "Real Housing Recovery" which shows that homeownership is currently near its lowest levels since the early 1980's.
Economic Composite
Lastly, the chart below is the Economic Output Composite Index. (For a description of the underlying construction of the index click here)
While there have been repeated "pops" in economic activity due to massive ongoing interventions by the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, the "struggle along" economy remains.
Defining The State Of The Union
The President will do his best to put a positive spin on the current economic environment and the success of his policies to date when he gives his speech tomorrow. However, how you define the current environment may have much to do with where you fall in current income distribution. This was a point made by Mr. Boyer:
"In 2012, the richest 10 percent of Americans earned their largest share of income since 1917, said Emmanuel Saez, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley. Meanwhile, Census Bureau statistics showed that real average income among the poorest 20 percent of families continued to fall each year from 2009 to 2011."
As with all things - it is the lens from which you view the world that defines what you see. In the end, it will be whether we choose to "see" the issues that currently weigh on economic prosperity and take action, or continue to look the other way. History is replete with examples of the demise of empires that have done the latter.
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The fact that Barack Obama, an ethnic minority in America, is supporting the end of the filibuster in the US Senate is a very telling sign-post on what appears to be the road to, "A tyranny of the majority."
"The President will do his best to put a positive spin on the current economic environment and ..."
Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen. Jean Connery as John Mason in The Rock
“My fellow Americans blah blah blah blah blah blah ME blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ME blah blah blah blah ME blah blah blah blah GOVERNMENT MUST blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah EVIL TEA PARTY blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah LET ME BE CLEAR blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah EVIL REPUBLICANS blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah TAXES ARE TOO LOW blah blah blah blah blah blah blah I SUPPORT ISRAEL blah blah blah blah INCOME INEQUALITY blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah NEW IDEAS blah blah blah blah blah blah blah EVIL RICH blah blah blah blah OBAMACARE IS WORKING blah blah blah blah blah blah I blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ME blah blah ME blah blah blah blah blah blah (LONG PAUSE) blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah OBAMACARE IS WORKING blah blah blah THANKS TO MY STEWARDSHIP OVER A RECOVERED ECONOMY blah blah blah blah blah blah GOVERNMENT CAN blah blah blah blah blah blah blah YOU NEED ME blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah I WILL DO WHAT I WANT IN-SPITE OF CONGRESSblah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah CARING blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah CHANGE blah blah blah blah blah blah blah TOMORROW WILL BE GREAT blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah (REPEAT 259 TIMES)”
Toss in folks, threats, Iran and children.
I am afraid the Calvin Candie (Harry Reid) and Stephen (POTUS) visual reference (above) might be too subtle, especially for those that have not seen Mr. Tarantino's film.
...and thus we have the odd age-old case of a minority telling us that Majority Rule is good for us...
Yeah, maybe "I haven't driven a car in 18 years" is a euphemism.
Hitlery was misquoted. They meant to say SHE hasn't been driven in 18 years. She's a serial scissorer!
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=scissoring
The wreconomic state of the union address, we wait with bated breath.
I also heard* that half way through Obama's speech their will be a short ceremony to marry '33' couples of various backgrounds and sexual orientation, and it will be officiated by Dennis Rodman...
.
http://music-mix.ew.com/2014/01/26/grammys-macklemore-ryan-lewis-perform...33-marriages-madonna/
Thank you HH, haven't seen it. Sounds entertaining.
This punk has only three elements to his game: 1) race card 2) blame card 3) lie ass off card.
He'll cycle through all these dozens of times over, as usual.
Fuck him and all like him!
i hope his exec order includes:
1. $3,000 bucks for my 'Thingamajig' which he promised me a couple of years ago;
2. slash all WS bonuses to no more then $100 million/quarter;
3. bring all our troops home finally, instead of moving them from desert to desert like the wandering tribes of Abraham;
4. a free Hummer in every driveway; and,
5. a minimum savings rate yield of a generous 0.02% instead of the devastatingly meager 0.01% we get now.
ohhhhh... You said, "Fuck him and all like him!" That is obviously a reference to all half black people everywhere. Therefore, true to form of the liberal stratosphere, you need to be called a racist, and all of your points, regardless of validity, need to be stricken from the collective consciousness of society.
The "liberal stratosphere" = "all like him"! :)
4) spend other people's money card
but you may have assumed that since Obama is a politician
You didn't write that!
Yet for 200 years we are at all time highs......I guess Anzn will post $8 per share earnings this week to confirm it all
Big Brother/Sister says to corporations, "start hiring or receive a visit from an IRS agent". How's that for stimulus?http://theulstermanreport.com/2014/01/28/valerie-jarrett-orders-companie...
Wahahahhaha USA USA USA! Bin Laden/Snowden is dead!
Was Snowden also buried at sea?
Don't worry, they will generate footage by throwing a prop from that Boris Karloff movie into the gulf of mexico by some on-leave coast guard sea rats.
ROTFLLOLOLTOLROLROLTOFLTLFOTLFOLT
Surely these are the actions of someone confident in his work and signs we are in a recovering economy.
Stats and numbers dont mean shit anymore. They're cooked up or don't mean shit.
It's the 140 nations where the US has MILITARY PRESENCE, that's the real issue.
Gung Ho economics. Buy our shit or be bombed to hell!
It's the 90-95% of the population that has to wake up, nothing will change otherwise...and history shows that NEVER happens...it's just a changing of the gatekeepers. This has been going on for 2000 years and it will not change.
Will this loser discuss how many he has driven into poverty?
Walmart, Walmart that's our store,
We shop there cuz we are poor.
Raise the minimum wage. Problem solved.
He is waiting for the auditorium to fill up with that target audience first. No point starting now.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2014/01/28/report-obama-to-propose-n...
Read this without laughing.
"launch a plan that would allow workers whose employers don’t offer retirement
plans to invest money for retirement, tax deferred,
in Treasury bonds; the employees could eventually convert those savings to"
Yeah, eventually convert those savings to IRA's, which will be taxed into oblivion or converted to Treasury madated and defined annuities.
Welcome to the New Rome.
All flail Caesar.
I'm not sure how this is different than an IRA
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2014/01/28/report-obama-to-propose-n...
True. Only difference I can see is it would force people to buy Treasuries for a defined period. .Gov needs a buyer for what the Chinese will be selling?
Next Yellen will start printing toilet paper at the Marriner Eccles building so China can trade in our Bonds for SOMETHING.
You mean them illegie ones? Good luck backing those with full faith and credit.
Some financial institution, or several, will need to administer the program and collect fees. So, nothing will change...the investor...will still be fucked and charged for the pleasure.
seriously, what's better for wiping your ass? toilet paper or a rich-n-fibre sand paper bond,...
Don't worry, they're only going to be buying 'WeAlTh CoUpOnS' anyways...
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Barry is a pawn.
Obama is growing old as gracefully as Madonna.
Mongo just pawn in game of life
"Obama's policies"? as in plural? it seems hes had 1 policy since 2009. do nothing, let ben print.
Obama should executive order a new commemorative DVD box set of Pete Seeger, and give the proceeds to Vietnam refugees in Houston.
I give him the highest impeachment rating of any US President.
TPP & TTIP will make us all rich.....right?
"Another back-room secret corporate deal. The TPP has been shrouded in secrecy and backers now want to rush it through Congress." TPP: http://www.cwa-union.org/issues/entry/c/trans-pacific_free_trade_agreementTTIP: http://rt.com/business/eu-us-trade-brussels-528/
NAFTA has brought us untold amounts of wealth and disease
Since I first became cognizant of this annual non-event, (I was passing by the TV screen one year when it was on at my dad's house and wondered why all these human beans were clapping after each sentence the speaker uttered), I have never seen, heard, or absorbed thru osmosis a single syllable of these inane, narcissistic, oratorical selfies.
In celebration tonight at having purposefully missed this Annual vomitous of words that signify nothing, I will crack open a pack of Keebler Chocolate Chip cookies, go down into the basement and sight in my new .22 semiautomatic LR, using silent bullets, with targets will have pictures of hilary clinton, theBamster, McConnell, Pelosi, Ruth Ginsberg, Joe Cassano, Lord Blankfein, Steve Schwarzman, Alan Greenspan, Tim Geithner, Neel KAshkari, Ben Bernanke, Jack Lew, Janet Yellen, Robby Rubin, Jamie ( i mean really, "Jamie" for a grown up??), Chelsea, bill, sid blumenthal, Joe Conason, Gloria Allred, Bill O'Reilly, sean Hannity and most of the RINO house members, and RINO senators.
The catharsis of using the images of these 4th rate human beans as targets is exhilarating. And a much better use of my time than sitting there enthralled at the bold faced lies, the omissions, the spin, and bullshit that passes for POTUS politics.
declare victory on the economy and move on. if you tune in for that you really have too much time on your hands
80% Job Approval in DC...time to invade & overthrow
The answer to the question:"Are we better off today than we were when the current Administration took control?",
has been the same, "NO", my entire life.
However, the illusion of prosperity has been maintained better in preceeding years.
Good evening, Americans and members of Congress.
I have only two more words to speak this evening.
I resign.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ldLdrZOOWM
It's time for Tax Cuts. Central Bank can't do all the heavy lifting whilst pols act like toddlers throwing tantrums.
... and the world will look on in awe, at america's thriving potemkin village's-- flowing prosperously from land to sea, and mountain to valley... as the hungry`podium prepares the machiavellian master with a sanitised rhetorical 'paralogism fodder', of fibre-free absolute statism-- as thy beggard'd neighbors watch with star-struck rancor...
You can't address the eCONomy without a CON man. Enter Obama!
"Shit. I know shit's bad right now, with all that starving bullshit, and the dust storms. And we are running out of french fries and burrito coverings. But I got a solution.
Now I understand everyones' shit's emotional right now. But I've got a 3 point plan that's going to fix EVERYTHING. Number 1: We've got this guy, ‘Not Sure’. Number 2: He's got a higher IQ than ANY MAN ALIVE. And Number 3: He's going to fix EVERYTHING."
...Treasury has been resorting to "extraordinary measures" to "pay bills.
Is that ZH for QE, something else? Any numbers? I freely admit I'm not up to speed on where our money goes.
Can you guys please help me with my math?
If the US wanted to return to a Gold Standard, it would need to reset the price of gold to cover it's debt, correct?
$17,000,000,000,000 debt
8,000,000 kg of gold in reserve (alleged)
= $2,125,000 dollars per Kg
= $67,000 per troy ounce
This can't be right. What have I done wrong?
If you confiscate all the gold then lie about how much is behind the curtain then it really is $5/oz
4t/261511132 = $15,295.72
covers mon base, keeps FR sys, debt still fails in many cases, it is the MIX of assets(debt) quality that's improved instantaneously (so, less of a variance between liabilities ($) and good-assets (paying debt, gold, your mom)), as future fundamental picture improvement also adds immediate sentiment price bump
Alex Jones had Bob Barr on last Thursday. He was a Congressman for 8 years back in the Clinton era. He was the one who brought up the charges of impeachment against Clinton and got enough co-signers to make it happen.
Bob Barr is a legal bad ass, ex-CIA, and a statesman along the lines of Ron Paul. Look him up.
Here's the kicker: Bob Barr is running for Congress again this year in Georgia and it sounds like he's easily going to win it. And when he does win, he will be one of the baddest mother fuckers in Congress, and he's going to go after obama immediately with the same charges of impeachment that he used against Clinton.
Here's the interview on Alex Jones...you all gotta listen to it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24clEFBWqUg
Barr said he pulled out the impeachment paperwork he used against Clinton and dusted it off...then he updated what needed updating and crafted it for impeaching obama...he said it was easy given all the evidence against obama and his usurpation of the Constitution.
And since he already served 8 years in Congress previously, he gets all his seniority back...that means he can't be marginalized as some rookie freshman Congressman. He's a legal wizard and knows how to work Congress inside and out.
He's going to be obama's biggest nightmare and will quickly build a coalition against obama and the rest of the treasonous scum in Congress. I think we're going to see a lot more of the rats scurrying off the sinking ship once Barr gets back to town.
Here's his website...send him a few bucks, cuz we need this guy in D.C. big time to fight the fight up close and personal against obama and the rest of his scummy little miscreant crew.
http://barrcongress.com/
Pass the word around to everyone you email and let's help make sure Bob Barr gets back to D.C. so we can get this impeachment rolling!!!
all those asshats are "alternative" media kosher kontrolled opposition (what isnt eh zh?). sotu bingo and/or drinking game:
https://scontent-b-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1/1604529_706660232700...
State of the Union? More like state of delusion-0bozo's, that is.
BTW, what f-ing difference does it make to raise the min. wage if you can't find a f-ing job like the tens of MILLIONS who have given up looking for work, thus they are not longer counted as "unemployed?"
I'm old enough to remember Barr in CONgress the first time-he's just another f-ing progressive in sheeps clothing. Forget about Barr-don't be a sucker.
All hail: the Communist in Chief!
The Bath House O'Barry is being fluffed as we speak.