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Marc Faber Warns "Insiders Are Selling Like Crazy... Short US Stocks, Buy Treasuries & Gold"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Beginning by disavowing Mario Gabelli of any belief that rising stock prices help 'most' people ("Fed data suggests half the US population has seen a 40% drop in wealth since 2007"), Marc Faber discusses his increasingly imminent fears of the markets in this recent Barron's interview.

Quoting Hussman as a caveat, "The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There's no calling the top," Faber warns there are a lot of questions about the quality of earnings (from buybacks to unfunded pensions) but "statistics show that company insiders are selling their shares like crazy."

His first recommendation - short the Russell 2000, buy 10-year US Treasuries ("there will be no magnificent US recovery"), and miners and adds "own physical gold because the old system will implode. Those who own paper assets are doomed."

Via Barron's,

Faber: This morning, I said most people don't benefit from rising stock prices. This handsome young man on my left said I was incorrect. [Gabelli starts preening.] Yet, here are some statistics from Gallup's annual economy and personal-finance survey on the percentage of U.S. adults invested in the market. The survey, whose results were published in May, asks whether respondents personally or jointly with a spouse have any money invested in the market, either in individual stock accounts, stock mutual funds, self-directed 401(k) retirement accounts, or individual retirement accounts. Only 52% responded positively.

Gabelli: They didn't ask about company-sponsored 401(k)s, so it is a faulty question.

Faber: An analysis of Federal Reserve data suggests that half the U.S. population has seen a 40% decrease in wealth since 2007.

In Reminiscences of a Stock Operator [a fictionalized account of the trader Jesse Livermore that has become a Wall Street classic], Livermore said, "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight." Here's another thought from John Hussmann of the Hussmann Funds: "The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There's no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blaring red since late 2011."

I am negative about U.S. stocks, and the Russell 2000 in particular. Regarding Abby's energy recommendation, this is one of the few sectors with insider buying. In other sectors, statistics show that company insiders are selling their shares like crazy, and companies are buying like crazy.

Zulauf: These are the same people.

Faber: Precisely. Looking at 10-year annualized returns for U.S. stocks, the Value Line arithmetic index has risen 11% a year. The Standard & Poor's 600 and the Nasdaq 100 have each risen 9.4% a year. In other words, the market hasn't done badly. Sentiment figures are extremely bullish, and valuations are on the high side.

But there are a lot of questions about earnings, both because of stock buybacks and unfunded pension liabilities. How can companies have rising earnings, yet not provision sufficiently for their pension funds?

Good question. Where are you leading us with your musings?

Faber: What I recommend to clients and what I do with my own portfolio aren't always the same. That said, my first recommendation is to short the Russell 2000. You can use the iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund [IWM]. Small stocks have outperformed large stocks significantly in the past few years.

Next, I would buy 10-year Treasury notes, because I don't believe in this magnificent U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. is going to turn down, and bond yields are going to fall. Abby just gave me a good idea. She is long the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF, so I will go short.

...

What are you doing with your own money?

Faber: I have a lot of cash, and I bought Treasury bonds.

...

Faber: I have no faith in paper money, period. Next, insider buying is also high in gold shares. Gold has massively underperformed relative to the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Maybe the price will go down some from here, but individual investors and my fellow panelists and Barron's editors ought to own some gold. About 20% of my net worth is in gold. I don't even value it in my portfolio. What goes down, I don't value.

...

Which stocks are you recommending?

Faber: I recommend the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF [GDXJ], although I don't own it. I own physical gold because the old system will implode. Those who own paper assets are doomed.

Zulauf: Can you put the time frame on the implosion?

Faber: Let's enjoy dinner tonight. Maybe it will happen tomorrow.

...

There is a colossal bubble in assets. When central banks print money, all assets go up. When they pull back, we could see deflation in asset prices but a pickup in consumer prices and the cost of living. Still, you have to own some assets. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust yields about 7%. It owns several ports in Hong Kong and China, which isn't a good business right now. When the economy slows, the dividend might be cut to 5% or so. Many Singapore real-estate investment trusts have corrected meaningfully, and now yield 5% to 6%. They aren't terrific investments because property prices could fall. But if you have a negative view of the world, and you think trade will contract, property prices will fall, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury will drop, a REIT like Hutchison is a relatively attractive investment.

...

Faber: The outlook for property in Asia isn't bad because a lot of Europeans realize they will need to leave Europe for tax reasons. They can live in Singapore and be taxed at a much lower rate. Even if China grows by only 3% or 4%, it is better than Europe. People are moving up the economic ladder in Asia and into the middle class.

Are you bullish on India?

Faber: I am on the board of the oldest India fund [the India Capital fund]. The macroeconomic outlook for India isn't good, but an election is coming, and the market always rallies into elections. The leading candidate is pro-business. He is speaking before huge crowds.

In dollar terms, the Indian market is still down about 40% from the peak, because the currency has weakened. In the 1970s, stock market indexes performed poorly and stock-picking came to the fore. Asia could be like that now. It is a huge region, and you have to invest by company. Some Indian companies will do well, and others poorly. Some people made 40% on their investments in China last year, but the benchmark index did poorly.

I like Vietnam. The economy has had its troubles, and the market has seen a big decline. I want you to visualize Vietnam. [Stands up, walks to a nearby wall, and begins to draw a map of Vietnam with his hands.] Here's Saigon, or Ho Chi Minh City, the border with China, and the Mekong River. And here in the middle, on the coast, is Da Nang.

...

Faber: I recommend shorting the Turkish lira. I had an experience in Turkey that led me to believe that some families are above the law. When I see that in an emerging economy, it makes me careful about investing.

 

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Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:49 | 4377407 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The Trifecta! Gold vault, Simon Black and Faber in the same day! Let's top it off with 20 reasons why rabble rabble rabble from the economic collapse guy where we quote the vault article, Simon Black and Faber...all while the S&P futures blow through 1,800.

"Faber: I recommend the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF [GDXJ], although I don't own it. "

Ho Le Shit

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:50 | 4377414 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Is economic collapse guy M.C. Ruppert?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:51 | 4377420 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Let me ruin a thread for a change please

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:53 | 4377429 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Okay, let me know if you need a hand...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:53 | 4377436 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

LOL will do

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:22 | 4377540 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Faber isn't that bad really, sometimes he's annoying but his calls are pretty good. Just never buy miners unless you really know what you're doing. 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 01:19 | 4378669 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I used to read Barrons but it is trash now. The whole thing is a joke. I stopped reading around 2006. The best ones on the Roundtables were Faber and  Felix Zaulauf.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 13:40 | 4380370 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Never buy miners, period. The only way they will be profitable is if metal suppression ends, and by the time that happens they will have already been nationalized.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 01:33 | 4378692 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

exactly ...... this is a dangerous game going on ..... many do not like Bernacke .......but he is leaving (and I suspect he is glad to get out of the manipulative hot seat)

junior miners are THE least loved equity sector geniuses here ....   some say time for a change  

guesss there are a lot of Ichan followers & Putin followers here ....... buy Apple ....and go whole hog ......buy the insider sales from Goldie or Faceplant.......... tech is the new era remember !

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 03:16 | 4378840 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

remember always that Yellen has the track record of championing monetary accommodation. That is why she is the perfect candidate for the oligarchy to finish the bait and switch and get her to put the brakes on QE HARD

the idea of her reversing taper and QE to infinity - while sensible from the vantage of keeping the status quo - just seems so damn obvious

this is the point where the 0.1% cut the rest of the 1% off at the knees

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:18 | 4377503 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Never mind.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:11 | 4377698 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Shouldn't you get a perl programming job by now?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:54 | 4377433 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I had an experience in Turkey that led me to believe that some families are above the law. When I see that in an emerging economy, it makes me careful about investing.

But that behaviour is de rigueur in the "developed" world, so is it OK to invest there?  Now I'm confused.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:55 | 4377447 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Rather ironic Marc said that, considering where he lives... Much like whistling while walking through a cemetery... 

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:04 | 4377485 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The Cozines of Turkey.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:14 | 4377511 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

This market may go up till September, but I do not have *any* doubt that within 2 years it will have collapsed.

Lindsey Williams spoke in detail that as soon as the Obamacare is setup they have a deliberate currency reset / debt reset planned.

But along the way Obama is going to seize all retirement accounts nationalizing them.

The wild card is Israel.  I estimate that by April 2014 she will go to war against Iran backed by logistical support from Saudi Arabia.

This will lead to false flags, and a global war.

Obama is a hard core supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, his brother RAN the financing department of the Muslim Brotherhood.  He doesn't work for the United States, he answers to Saudi Arabia.

 

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:17 | 4377520 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

In the end - GET OUT OF THE MARKETS NOW (Like do not hesitate get tfo now...)  We don't know when this craphouse will implode, it could be very very soon, any day.

An earthquake to affect 17 states is also lined up to occur (Madrid Fault Line).

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:43 | 4377609 new game
new game's picture

lindsey is one hellova bullshiter that sounds serious and has extraordinary power from above, and, oh yea, his comections which he never reveals-ha...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 12:49 | 4380159 Metal Minded
Metal Minded's picture

Same as Jim Willie, who is more to my taste, but only a matter of taste.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:47 | 4377630 fonestar
fonestar's picture

In the end - GET OUT OF THE MARKETS NOW

 

Was anyone even in these "markets" to begin with?  I only got into this stuff back in 2008 because I lost my job as a result of the great repression and started reading about it.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 01:46 | 4378719 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

fonestar ..... on this I am with you

suggest you read Schumpeter's Capitalism, Democracy & Socialism .... while written in late 40s perfect fit for now ....... Schumpeter's masterful 'admiring' take-down of Marx is an eternal highlight ..... but may seem dated ( I do not think so as bolsheviks are nothing more than more heavily committed socialists).

Most who never read the book in all its entirety hide behind the 'destructive creation; concept of Schumpeter in this book .......but to me ( and many others) that is the fourth or fifth order of conceptual magnitude sitting in this treatise.

The absolute genius of C,S & D by Schumpeter is his articulation of busnessmen, intellectuals and the cynical collapse when economic stress hits....... Thomas Sowell more recently addresses this  .... it is the key to understand why 'good conscience' biz folk constantly since time eternal get the political rug pulled out from them by the politicla class....... especially when they are members of the lucky sperm club versus building their businesses from scratch with no outside help (<<<<<hint......crony capitalsim ala Bill Gates et all....... doubt me ........ go 'study' the actual record of how Microsfot obtained the 'OS' code.......... a buy-off of the Democratic leaning antitrust bar in the form of Gates' father)

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 00:58 | 4378616 AngelEyes00
AngelEyes00's picture

I wouldn't listen to anything Lindsey Williams has to say.  The last video I watched of him, he was claiming 'Smart Meters' were emanating special brain waves to make us docile (weak followers), between 3-4 AM.  WTF?!

He claims there will be a currency reset - uh duh, what does he think happens every business day at the currency exchange?  I emailed him and never got a response.  He's definitely a quack.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:27 | 4377558 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

"I had an experience in Turkey that led me to believe that some families are above the law."

Is Turkey part of WS?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:44 | 4377619 epicurious
epicurious's picture

Traveling through Turkey 50 years ago it was very clear to me that life in the 13th century was a long way from catching up to the rest of the civilized world.  As far as I can tell things have moved ahead about 50 years.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 03:23 | 4378847 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

i know a few who travel to and from turkey over the last few decades who reckon it has come a long way with its infrastructure.

Culturally - well, thats a different story

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:54 | 4377441 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

I wonder what Faber thinks about bitcoin as an investment..??

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:57 | 4377448 fonestar
fonestar's picture

He said he "prefers physical gold to Bitcoin".  So both him and Schiff don't get it... they're both good and have lots of good points but they're set in their ways.  Old dogs, new tricks and whatnot....

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:31 | 4377572 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

They may be old dogs but with age comes wisdom.  Maybe they just haven't yet been convinced that Bitcoin is the real thing. Youngsters and Millennials (I assume) like yourself trolling internet forums to pump Bitcoin isn't going to be enough to get the more skeptical investors to jump in head first.

Call people ignorant or "late adopters" if you will, but the more you talk about Bitcoin, the less I want to put any money into it. You really should give it a rest and let it do its thing, just my two ¢

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:36 | 4377591 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Would you talk to your accountant about installing a new transmission?  Or go to your mechanic for advice on markets and retirement savings?  Face it, there's not many people out there with the combination of financial and technical skills to properly discuss Bitcoin.  Trace Mayer, Max Keiser and very few others come to mind. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:56 | 4377665 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

So people should just blindly trust some anonymous kids on internet discussion boards? In all honesty, I haven't looked much into Bitcoin, and most of the exposure I have had to it has been from yours and a few others commentary on here. To tell you the truth, I would have been more optimistic if you didn't come across as such a fanatical zealot about the whole thing.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:11 | 4377701 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Likewise, you would not listen to a blowhard on Fox News about anything having to do with Climate Science...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:26 | 4377759 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Seems a little ignorant to single out FOX. I wouldn't trust any MSM outlet on....well, anything.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 00:25 | 4378557 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

True, but I don't get my science from the MSM. But I can judge a portion of the MSM by the quality and honesty of their coverage of science related issues...

I suppose if you aren't aware of a lot of things it is easy to get confused like you appear to be...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 01:25 | 4378679 Freddie
Freddie's picture

He probably watches TV like the other serfs. Fox, CNN, MSNBC< NBC - who cares. All Op Mockingbird.  Oh and Global Warming (sic).  Two words the GW cultist can never answer - solar radiation.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 02:25 | 4378775 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What's the question?

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 02:39 | 4378797 X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

I can judge a portion of the MSM by the quality and honesty of their coverage of science related issues

 

lmfao

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 09:52 | 4379334 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Funny thing is that I can also also get insight in a persons mendaciousness the exact same way....

It's pretty clear that you are either an ignorant fool or a lying sack of shit, likely both...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 03:26 | 4378849 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

"Face it, there's not many people out there with the combination of financial and technical skills to properly discuss Bitcoin"

and you think bitcoin will gain widespread trust, acceptance, and usage because.......?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:06 | 4377942 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

fone....what happens when the electrical grid goes down? I know what I will do....I will frolic around in my phyzz au ag....

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 00:41 | 4378585 Malachi Constant
Malachi Constant's picture

I have been working in advertising which is a dying industry for a very simple reason: Uninvited help is called invasion. No matter how brilliant or convincing you think your info-droppings are, what you are doing is raping my mind. If I explicitly ask a question, your answer is the only acceptable advertising. No astroturfing, no forum activity, no reviews, no guerilla marketing, no viral kitties - only an answer to an explicitly asked question.

You talk a lot about BitCoin without anyone asking. You think you are making BC look hip and bleeding-edge. something that only staunch old farts won't appreciate. In doing this, you are making a huge disservice to whoever pays you for your attempts at marketing: you imply that BitCoin is not to be doubted, which makes it a religious cult.

Yet you think that your explanations are solid and flawless; your metaphors sniper-sharp and all in all you project an aura of sensibility and merciless fact-based authority. Deplorably, your words are a mix of emotion and veiled insults with no added reason. The chasm between your illusion and reality makes your whole exercise pathetic. You demonstrate that BitCoin is a refuge of the jealous, restless and/or not too bright.

If you stop talking about BitCoin, its image will slightly improve, which is what you're after, isn't it?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 08:26 | 4379140 Spanky
Spanky's picture

+1

For... wow.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 12:44 | 4380120 Metal Minded
Metal Minded's picture

Andreas M. Antonopoulos

Why Bitcoin Terrifies Big Banks | Interview with Andreas Antonopoulos (13:02)

http://tinyurl.com/o6txqh6


 


Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:48 | 4377636 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

When you're as wealthy as either of those folks, Then I'll believe you "get it".  Until then,  I'll follow the smart money.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:52 | 4377649 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Oh, they're smart alright... smart with their money.  So if you happen to be selling gold coins, gold backed credit cards, gold storage facilities how smart would it to tell your clients to look into Bitcoin?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:38 | 4377802 howenlink
howenlink's picture

I generally agree with Schiff on economics, but I have an arguement for Bitcoin that I have not heard Schiff or others consider.  I liken Bitcoin to a fiat currency of a foreign country.  By that I mean it has limited acceptance among those who use it.  And like a foreign currency, you are likely to need to convert it to another currency in order to spend it in other area.  Unlike a foreign currency, it is not geographically bound to one state.  In this respect I think Bitcoin is legitimate as an alternate currency.

 

Disclaimer: I do not own any Bitcoin mainly because I believe short-sighted government thugs will outlaw it.

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 02:51 | 4378813 X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

sorta true, but it has added:

1. public ledger for tracking (5eyez via IP)

2. electricity needs, for spending and valuing

3. Temporarily limited supply, to lure techie would-be phyzz buyers

4. Time-decay to profits, decentralization of miners/clearers become pools, then bought-out, then cartelized

5. Time-decay to deflationary (limitation of supply) impulse inappropriate to an expanding world economy -- only market production of money works here -- red herring ALERTTTTT (30 years early)

6. Majority miner/clearers can swap code, once adoption is sufficient, and deflation boogeyman is 'slain' with the new supply (and all shall rejoice) -- now u Volker'ed once again, this time, more than regional

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 04:39 | 4378912 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

lol. Faber sit on bilions.

 

you?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:58 | 4377455 Keyser
Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:15 | 4377716 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Guys like Faber, Schiff, etc. made their money in stuff other than bitcoin, so they stick to talking things they know about.  And so they should!

Caveat Emptor applies to them also: Beware of an 'expert' who is waxing lyrically (dispensing advice) on something outside their field of specialty (field of max. competence).

I'm not shilling bitcoin here, but I totally discount these 'experts' (old dogs, old tricks) who make doomsday predictions about bitcoin's future.  They simply do NOT have a crystal ball good enough to know the future of cyber-currencies.

If cyber-currencies is something that interest you, treat it like any "speculative commodity":  With caution, by limiting your allocation/exposure.  Another way to look at it:  If you go to Vegas (a casino) for fun, make sure you've decided beforehand how much you want to 'risk', and treat it like a game.  The scary 'investors' are the ones who bet the farm on a single bet (who allocate poorly) -- whether on Wall St, Bitcoin or Vegas.  --> A fool and his money...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 00:08 | 4378513 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Naw.  They just don't assume that there will always be a cyber anything.  If you really believe things are going to fall apart to the degree that bombs drop or the system just grinds to a halt then you cannot put faith in bitcoin or any other asset that relies on multiple other things just to exist.  Even with paper you can burn it to start a fire to keep warm. 

It may be something in the middle instead of an extreme die off but the seemingly high potential for a mass die off is a siren for physical assets.  Bonds and miners are the hedge (above).

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 03:30 | 4378853 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

but even if it all holds together somehow, where's the guarantee that bitcoin wont be the Atari, Netscape or Myspace of a digital currency age ?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:55 | 4377438 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

I'm burning out on doom porn.

Now if Faber had a nice rack that would a different story.

Where is 4 CHan?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:00 | 4377461 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Maybe but Faber would have made an excellent Gold Finger.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:55 | 4377663 Kinskian
Kinskian's picture

With the ski cap, I'm thinking more of a Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh.

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:12 | 4377509 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There's always Graham Summers.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:19 | 4377525 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

It's refreshing to finally hear Mark tell us to short stocks and buy gold as oppose to buying gold and shorting stocks he normally recommends.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:24 | 4378036 object_orient
object_orient's picture

Careful about that:

 

"What I recommend to clients and what I do with my own portfolio aren't always the same. That said, my first recommendation is to short the Russell 2000."


Wed, 01/29/2014 - 00:12 | 4378526 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

He's convinced the system is going to die.  He is all in on collapse (cash, as he calls it).  His recommendations are for those who want to hedge that bet.  'If you think there is a chance the world is not going to end then here, buy bonds and this miner, short that thing over there, maybe India will have a few winners...'

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:42 | 4377612 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

I don't know.

The world has never been so fiatted before.

Some things are the same-ish as the Depression. Massice busts and bailouts of mal-investments. Massive regime uncertainty.
Discredited and elderly political class, ideas.
Mass unemployment now only masked by schemes.
Broke goverments.

However there is no gold exchange. France isn't gold hoarding. Germany is strong, eastern Europe way better, Russia is fantastically better than Stalins Rus. China is phenomenally better.

These CB are so clever, and so ahead and fiendishly inventive. Modern sheeple have not notion of alternatives. There are still vast private wealth to financialize, rehypothecate, tranche and God knows what other schemes.

Were going to have to go to Egyptian type popular stress were bread is more than a days pay.

Its just starting.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:08 | 4377693 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yah. that's a very bad idea. individuals should never buy ETF's and there's no reason to own a mining stock; which is a stock. some metal, yeah. some stock, no.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 02:55 | 4378818 X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

some people are gettin them stock certs at home, no broker, no fin sys

but itsalongtermplay

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 23:03 | 4378220 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

he forgot to mention the 3rd option - which is - you are just an idiot ---  who believes QE is a magic potion --- that this insanity can go on forever

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 23:28 | 4378315 The Vineyard
The Vineyard's picture

Marc Faber rocks.  I love his accent.  He sounds like a villian in a Star Wars film.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 02:31 | 4378782 MeelionDollerBogus
Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:50 | 4377419 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Has Faber EVER said sell gold?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:51 | 4377425 fonestar
fonestar's picture

No, you're thinking of Gartman.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:56 | 4377443 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

I just searched ZERO H for FABER 2012...Sky was falling then

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:58 | 4377453 fonestar
fonestar's picture

The sky has been falling since around World War 1.  It's just coming to its cataclysmic end right about........ NOW!

 

/and that's not sarc

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:48 | 4377627 new game
new game's picture

faber is quite the hoot! his predictions are getting close to reality. guessing he bot the 10 at 3 and is sitting pretty, cause 2.5 handle coming as stocks capitulate. insiders selling options as record corp earning replenish the indirect cash flow to the top .001 percenters. why would they sell like mad. dah.

what else can he say, but the obvious...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:30 | 4377776 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Most salient point ever Fonestar.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:19 | 4378003 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

A Broken clock is right twice per day...

 

Seriously he is SPOT ON.

 

The Shit has already Hit the Fan. It is NOT a question of WHEN.

 

It is a question of how deep you will be buried in the current Shitstorm and what are you doing to shelter yourself from it.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 00:45 | 4378595 chindit13
chindit13's picture

It is my understanding that Faber was standing just outside of Oldavai Gorge selling subscriptions to his newsletter.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:54 | 4377432 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Not in the last 12 years.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:52 | 4377423 Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

So I take its time to buy stocks and short treasuries and PAPER gold? Amirite?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:51 | 4377424 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Mi amigo, Faber, it again.  I am allergic to the treasuries. Don't they lose big time when the interst rates go up?

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:53 | 4377434 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What will cause rates to rise? In 50 words or less...

Seriously...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:10 | 4377502 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

T-t-t-t-t-t-t-aper.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:18 | 4377526 Matt
Matt's picture

Massive sell-offs of treasuries, or when a central banker decides to raise interest rates 4.5% instantly at midnight.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:28 | 4377565 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

When and why? I have been waiting for at least 8 years...

Remember if you sell, you are in essence buying something else...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:50 | 4377637 new game
new game's picture

precieved risk and moar supply than demand, plus a rotation to treas(fear trade).

supply/demand-two words!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:12 | 4377710 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There have been trillions more supply than demand over the past 12 years...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:52 | 4377865 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You can choose not to roll maturing debt in your portfolio, take the USDs, and buy hard assets, or whatever you want.  Or just write them off.  The idea that 'bondholders have no options' seems valid until its proven false, and then it will be unfathomable why it was ever an accepted truism.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 00:11 | 4378525 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Losing control.

 

Done in two, how you like that?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 03:01 | 4378824 X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

raise RRF from 0.03 to 3

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:07 | 4377490 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They will save treasuries at all costs. Even if it means buring the whole EM world down.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:00 | 4377426 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

short stocks, the pain trade. no thanks.

Oh yeah, sure! With those things runnin' around? You can count me out. [/pvt. hudson]

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:53 | 4377435 stant
stant's picture

Have a exit plan indeed.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:54 | 4377437 pasttense
pasttense's picture

It wasn't that long ago that gold was $1800/ounce and silver was $49/ounce. And Zerohedge and its regulars told us the price was going to keep on going up. And some of us (including me) shifted the vast bulk of their assets to gold and silver.

So I no longer consider Zerohedge a credible source of information on this subject.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:56 | 4377445 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well we are talking about Faber here, and I am concerned how this crash he is calling for may impact his 20% correction call(s) over the last 60% rally.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:02 | 4377475 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I like Faber, but for crying out loud even a gerbil knows the name of the game by now.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:55 | 4377446 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

physical or paper..??

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:00 | 4377465 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I would be long physical copper in Turkish Lira terms.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:58 | 4377460 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

The Gold paper traders moved on leaving gold to search for its real bottom.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:04 | 4377486 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If you're buying PMs as an investment then shame on you. If you're buying it as insurance then don't worry about the paper price right now.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:22 | 4377541 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Reverend Morrison, in your policy... in your policy... here we are. It states quite clearly that no claim you make will be paid. You see, you unfortunately plumped for our 'Neverpay' policy, which, you know, if you never claim is very worthwhile, but you had to claim, and, well, there it is.

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:14 | 4377506 bh2
bh2's picture

"Keep going up" (very) loosely defines an eventual price target, not a timing forecast. You'll notice Faber remarked that he basically disregards current price even if it is declining. And as he's said repeatedly, he doesn't waste time guessing when the "big one" will hit (because he frankly doesn't know). Do you try to guess when your life insurance policy will pay off?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:12 | 4377507 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

How much are class rings now? $3000? 

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:33 | 4377574 seek
seek's picture

The answer to your gripe is right in the article -- you can't time this shit. Gold isn't about grabbing onto something on it's way up, it's about preserving something when everything (including gold) is on its way down, down into the abyss. You can't time it, so you buy now.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:07 | 4377690 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

You use the musings of an anonymouse message board to make your investment decisions?   You should just go ahead and sell your 3 ounces of silver and single 1/10 ounce gold coin now.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:41 | 4377819 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Why are you bothering reading Zerohedge?

 

Or are you just commenting without reading?

 

I attempt not to consider any sources with much reliability.  ANY.

 

Some sources are better than others.

 

If you are making investment decisions by the comments that you read here, rather than researching on your own and coming to your own convictions and conclusions, then you deserve to LOSE YOUR ASS.

 

LMAO...at you LOSER.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:03 | 4377907 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

pasttense

We also had no idea the level of graft and corruption following the bailouts in 2008, LIBOR/COMEX, MF Global scandal(s) and the guidance that would never happen through venerable institutions of law such as the DoJ and Federal agencies dedicated to the protection(s) from financial fraud to the consumer like the SEC, HUD, CFTC... either.

In the absence of any law(s) that govern (or should govern) the marketplace which is our situation today against those in the banking industry who commit a level of fraud that is unprecedented and unparalleled in history, you can't blame honest market analysis from individuals with integrity like ZH that have no indication or probability at the outset of how disreputable these institutions actually are when they have the degree of leverage, power and influence that they wield as it is ultimately determined through discovery and time that reveals how limitless those powers are that these banks hold.

It wasn't that long ago that gold was $1800/ounce and silver was $49/ounce... And Zerohedge and its regulars told us the price was going to keep on going up. And some of us (including me) shifted the vast bulk of their assets to gold and silver.

That statement is of course true in a more perfect, credible and honest financial marketplace governed by law.  Ask yourself where the price of Gold and Silver would be if GATA had judges that presided on their behalf that obeyed the law when those lawsuits came to trial?.

 

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:23 | 4378030 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It never went to trial. The evidence for the trial on the Anti Trust Case was destroyed with the collapse of World Trade Center Building #7 on September 11, 2001

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 23:41 | 4378391 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Indeed you are correct.  That among many other secrets that the Saloman Brothers Building swallowed up that day including Enron. WCOM and UAL...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:01 | 4377916 jomama
jomama's picture

pro tip:  don't take investment advice from websites.

if you can't figure out what's going on in the Au and Ag 'market', i hate to say this, but you were just waiting to be fleeced.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 02:24 | 4378774 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You're supposed to do the math yourself. In my gold price model video I advertised well in advance the decline & was off by only a week - the decline from 50 to 32 - and forecast it weeks in advance. http://www.youtube.com/ytgv3fc7 - check it yourself. I shared to all I could but very few took interest.

Too bad.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 03:02 | 4378827 X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

it is

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:56 | 4377444 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Precious metals are where you should have been investing the past year.  5.56 x 45, 7.62 x 39, or 7.62 x 51 all work nicely.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:02 | 4377467 unrulian
unrulian's picture

Don't forget 22lr, 12g, 9mm and tin

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:08 | 4377496 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

and .45, .38, .357, .44, 30-30, 30.06, 5.45 x 39, 7.62 x 54, .303, .410, 50 bmg... the possibilities are endless...

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 01:15 | 4378655 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

And, 7.62x54...Moslan-Nagant. Reach out and touch you...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:03 | 4377472 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

.22 is better for daily trading.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:04 | 4377478 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

No doubt, but .22 LR is about as rare as German Gold in a Federal Reserve bank, so good luck finding it.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:06 | 4377489 Dr. Engali
Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:11 | 4377505 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Used it many times friend, but it is a nice link for those not in the know.  I see prices still suck these days on the ones that are in stock though.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:21 | 4377536 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Stay away from the bulk rimfire by Winchester it is total shit.

Federal + CCI = way to go!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:26 | 4377552 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Knowing your taste in currency, I expected you'd recommend blanks.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:28 | 4377560 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

+ 1 lol

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:29 | 4377571 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh my... now that was drole....

A rare greenie from Flak for you...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:32 | 4377575 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Knowing your taste in currency, I expected you'd recommend blanks.

 

Right, who would want a bullet that hits 5000% harder?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:33 | 4377577 seek
seek's picture

Pro-bitcoin here, but upvoted for the Churchill-eque comeback.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:47 | 4377629 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Remington is good too.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:53 | 4377647 new game
new game's picture

golden bullet - hehe

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:53 | 4377648 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

gawd, I just checked gunbot to verify the price of 22.  Holy shit!  12 cents a round!!! for .22, and $.32 for match????  It wasn't long ago you could get 22 for about 1-2 cents per round.   How times have changed.  I should have bought a pallet of .556 10 years ago too. shoulda woulda coulda...

 

I probably should have bought a couple hundred bucks worth of bitcoin 4 years ago when I was playing around trying to mine it.  I wouldn't be too worried about the price of ammunition. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:55 | 4377662 fonestar
fonestar's picture

What you do is you just pin a 10 meter target on your squirrel, let them run around and shoot them with an Anschutz.  Then you don't feel so bad about the costs.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:13 | 4377508 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

Is it seriously that bad?

Where the hell do you live you can't even get .22?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:15 | 4377519 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Not in any of the stores in the upper midwest, and has not been for 9 months.  The boxes that come in are gone instantly.  Only available online or guns shows at carpet bagger prices.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:19 | 4377521 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I live in Indiana and, I have not seen .22 LR on the shelves in over a year. And this is a state where you can buy ammo from a freaking ice cream truck..... okay slight exaggeration there, but you get the idea.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:37 | 4377589 seek
seek's picture

It's pretty much nowhere. I've got multiple backorders at stores all over, and it's routine for me to get notices saying something that was going to ship in January is now going to ship in November.

There's a few stores in AZ that get it in, with purchase limits -- and there's people waiting in line every morning to grab some. It's insane. I'm just grateful I picked up a few cases years ago as a backup since it was so cheap, but you can't drain stocks forever.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:54 | 4377658 new game
new game's picture

fucking hoarders - hehe

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:02 | 4377681 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

Come to Canada!

I can't believe we have more ammo than the good ol' US of A.

Funny but true.

1000 rounds (2 bricks ) sets me back about 4 cents a round.

.45 is another story. 

I collect my brass (and tire weights!)

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:23 | 4377544 runswithscissors
runswithscissors's picture

recommend AP or steel core rounds...as it will pierce most vests..get'em while you can  

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:43 | 4377610 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Yes... much more fractional  :o)

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:48 | 4377635 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Im starting to notice police stations bunkering up. Used to have a blue light and a old desk sgt. Now steel mesh on windows, inner and outer mechanical wire gates, security cammeras, buzz in lobby s with 2" plexiglass and speaker voice.

Nice.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 19:58 | 4377457 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Can you put the time frame on the implosion?

Faber: Let's enjoy dinner tonight. Maybe it will happen tomorrow.

And that's pretty much how it will go down in a nutshell... Could be tomorrow...  Could be next week...  Next month...

Bottom line is given his level of pessimism in that response, I'd say were pretty fucking close to the end of that "rope"

Might I add too bad it ain't "soap"!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:06 | 4377494 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Speaking of soap and rope, did you know that Zorba invented soap on a rope when

he was in high school? When showering after gym class in a Greek high school, the

last thing Zorba wanted to do was bend over to pick up a bar of soap.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:15 | 4377517 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Or was it Archimedes in the tub?...

Either one.  Those Greeks come up with some great ideas alone or in pairs when bathing!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:00 | 4377462 Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

MDB is here!! Are u on the clock to spin whatever the dear leader lies about in his State of The Undoing speech?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:02 | 4377477 bh2
bh2's picture

Faber, like some others, does not regard gold as an "investment" but simply as fundamental, long term insurance. If the day comes the "policy" must pay off, it can only offset calamitous losses elsewhere in the portfolio. No net "profit" is anticipated.

Not to say one cannot trade gold in anticipation of short term profit, as does Gartman. But that's not to the same purpose as Faber's.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:04 | 4377483 Smiley
Smiley's picture

Its all about trust; THERE IS NONE.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:08 | 4377499 WhiteWolf
WhiteWolf's picture

Anyone who just listened to him on the TRY would have been CRUSHED. They jacked rates from 4.25 to 12, Lira skyrocketed.

Wow, Dangerous world to lean to heavy when the CENTRAL BANKING THIEFS are alive.  Deustche Banker gave up and could not take the lies anymore and offed himself. They have the powderkeg in Derivatives..something might be afoot. Either Jamie will get a much bigger slice next year or maybe he finally will meet the Gallows.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:34 | 4377579 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Either Jamie will get a much bigger slice next year or maybe he finally will meet the Gallows.

If Jamie and Lloyd (might as well throw him in for good measure) were on the list for swinging from "said rope" or securing a date with the pavement from 30 stories up at the JPM HQ's it would have happened by now minus (- )the court of law with heavy sentences in prison for life, because we have no Rule of Law anymore in this Country for these crimes.

Unfortunately... Shame on the American people for not making either of those options a reality after 2008.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:26 | 4377551 ArmyofOne
ArmyofOne's picture

Insiders have been selling for 2 years now.  Wake me when were down 20%.  If Yellen even allows a 10% fall. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:26 | 4377553 Spungo
Spungo's picture

"Has Faber EVER said sell gold?"
Gold is one of those things you're not supposed to sell. It's a store of wealth. You hold it as long as possible and hope you never need to sell it. That's like telling people to sell their guns or sell their house.

I'm pretty sure nobody will listen to Faber. I've pointed out insider selling several times and nobody ever sees it as a bad sign. Look at Twitter. Not a single insider has EVER paid for their Twitter shares. Look at Tesla. The only guy buying Tesla shares is Elon Musk. Ever other insider is selling. The reply I get is "it's normal for insiders to sell"

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:27 | 4377562 deerhunter
deerhunter's picture

CCI  100 pack .22LR  ten bucks.  That is a dime a round if I don't have fuzzy math.  That is a lot of money for squirrel ammo.  I do have some 500 rd bricks from six or seven years ago I think were 12 bucks or something.  I don't waste it.  I can buy 9mm ammo much easier. I haven''t seen a brick of 22 ammo in over a year in a store and I am in Obamaville NW Chicago suburbs.  

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:29 | 4377568 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

'

With all the money and markets pumped with margins, when the markets do finally go for a crap, won't that drop prices of PMs into the flusher as everyone sells to cover their positions?

Will that not happen and won't that be the time to buy, not on these phony rallies?

 

Silver <$10 and Gold <$700  ?

 

•J•
V-V

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:44 | 4377617 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Good luck finding coins and bars at those fake prices.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:53 | 4377651 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Wish you luck with that plan.

I'm sure you will be able to buy all the paper PM's your heart desires.

Phyz, not so much, because no one will be selling the real thing..

Hyperinflation follows a deflationary collapse ,like night after day.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:09 | 4377951 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It will be Gold = $0.00 when it all goes down. The Paper Contracts are WORTHLESS when they do not deliver Physical Gold. The value of a Contract will approach ZERO. There will be no demand for Paper Contracts.

 

Of course nobody will be selling any Physical Gold at that price. The Demand for Physical Gold will SKYROCKET as the Paper Price plummets into the ground.

 

That will expose the charade and people will find a new method for Price Discovery of Gold. (I have read that the price on the Shanghai Exchanges will replace that of the Comex.)

 

Anybody who sells into that will be foolish.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 20:36 | 4377586 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

"I have a lot of cash, and I bought Treasury bonds.

"I have not faith in paper money, period"

What am I missing here when he contradicts himself in the next sentence?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 21:14 | 4377720 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

What  you're missing is that these are temporary arrangements; he's a trader. There's no contradiction; he's telling you what he's doing instead of the stock market. the paper money is not going to evaporate this weekend; but soetime in the future.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!