Spot The "Recovery" In This Abysmal Durable Goods Chart

Tyler Durden's picture

We can waste many words to explain today's absolutely atrocious and recovery killing durable goods report (wait for it... wait for it... it's the weather's fault), or we can just show this once chart explaining all that has happened so far in the "recovery."

Ok fine: here it is in word format:

  • Durable goods which in November were said to have risen by 3.5%, were revised lower to 2.6% (we said there was something very fishy with the seasonally adjusted numbers last month). The December number, however, plunged by 4.3%, well below the expected 1.8%, and a paltry 0.1% increase Y/Y. Any time the Y/Y series is consistently negative, there is a recession. Of note: the durable goods orders for computers and electronics was at the lowest level since December 1993. We know... we know... Nobody orders computers when it is cold outside.
  • Durable goods ex transports plunged 1.6%, on expectations of a 0.5% increase, and the November print also was revised lower from 1.2% to 0.1%.

The more important core CapEx numbers, which are always said to be just around the corner but never actually appear, were evern worse:

Cap Goods orders nondefense ex aircraft plunged from 4.5% to -1.3% on expectations of a 0.3% increase. This despite the November revision lower to 2.6%.

Cap goods shipments nondefense ex aircraft also tumbled from 2.3% to -0.2%, on expectations of  a 0.1% increase. November also was revised lower from 2.8% to 2.3%.


So much for Tapering into strength. And now we look forward to the Fed saying what it meant when it said "data dependent" was really "snow in the cold winter" data dependent...

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Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bernanke has no clothes!

Money printing and blowing asset bubbles does not work.

Bernanke has printed and printed and printed right into another recession.

kliguy38's picture

Steve Liesman on CNBS...."these numbers are stunningly bad"...... you know its bad when that pumptard says it is

Cdad's picture

So...Taper postponed due to weather?  

Good lord...what have we become?

Cult_of_Reason's picture

Re: What have we become?

Unites Banana Republics of America

Son of Loki's picture

I  bought a $30 T-shirt for $1.48 yesterday.

I'm doing my part to boost the me a warm cuddly feeling to know I am helping out.

SilverIsKing's picture

Taper delayed due to weather = baseball game delayed due to rain

Platinum's picture

If the Super Bowl is moved by weather, is it an omen?

SoilMyselfRotten's picture

If bad weather is to blame then how can Camada ever outperform its peers?

fonzannoon's picture

This is the fed's moment to change the narrative. Expect them to start ramping up QE. Expect their message to change to "so we were right to do what we were doing, and will now continue on the path that we feel is best". Expect the business news channels to come out in full in defense of the fed (even moarer) and expect Jon Stewart etc. to start earning his paycheck and pushing this agenda.

buzzsaw99's picture

+1 - after a brief bout of fake volatility

KickIce's picture

Except in his retarded state of mind the problem is the FED hasn't printed enough fiat.

yogibear's picture

Krugman's theory, soon to be QEen Yellen's proposal. The libtards will claim Yellen proposed this a while back but nobody listened.

To make up for it they'll double or triple QE and call it something else. 

Send a JP Morgan $20,000 gift card to everyone on food stamps?  Many politicians have an interest in JPM.

Dingleberry's picture

There is no recession until we say there is.

-The fed, CNBC, et al.

XenoFrog's picture

So it would seem just pretending that all is well doesn't result in an economic boom.

NoDebt's picture

I've been sounding the recession alarm on here since August.  $100+ oil, interest rates up 100 bps just on the mention of tapering, employment still flat on it's back (and all low wage jobs).... and then we do a +3% GDP print for the 3rd quarter, I knew it would be rough sledding back down, burning off inventory and discounting out the wazoo for the Christmas shopping season.

After all that, you know what I figured out?  Nobody cares.  You've seen the last DECLARED recession in your lifetime.  It's all about "recovery" now.  Sometimes more recovery, sometimes less, but it will never be called anything but recovery for the rest of our lives.  And why should it not be called that?  If the economy is doing better, that's OK, but what really revs things up is when things slump and the Fed un-tapers.  Yeah, SOMEBODY is always in recovery mode.  That somebody probably isn't you or me, though.

Oh, by the way, futures are showing green, as they were before this report, so you can see how much Wall St. cares about this "awful" print.

corporatewhore's picture

Recession?  We've never come out of this DEPRESSION except for silly meaningless statistical lies published by our government.  Quit pussyfooting around calling it The Great Recession because it isn't.  It's DEPRESSION.

NoDebt's picture

Yeah, I think I'm one of the originals who called this a Depression.  I'm merely focussing on the coming recession within the overall depression in this post.  

GeezerGeek's picture

I believe that it was during the Carter administration that a top economic advisor - I wish I recalled his name, but it's not important - refused to use words like recession and depression. He chose, instead, to call it a 'banana'.

Perhaps in this politically-correct, euphemistic environment we should use a phrase like 'recovery-challenged'.

ArkansasAngie's picture

Yes ... I think about that semi-regularly

Alfred Kahn.  I liked him.  Of course m... I was young and foolish then

Headbanger's picture

Bullshit.  QE has failed miserably and the Big Banks aren't going for that bull crap now that the Bernanke is leaving and Obozo has lost all power. 

Blano's picture

TeleNegro has lost all power??  He sure doesn't act like it.

KickIce's picture

He's the Messiah, just ask him.

Christ created wine he creates bullshit, everyone has their respective talents.

DosZap's picture

THERE is/will be  NO recovery, and won't be until asshat is impeached or out of orfice.

Bearwagon's picture

Come on, Yellen! Untaper already! ... I dare you ...  ;-)

Waterfallsparkles's picture

Bernanke will give the ultimate Short squeeze for his last Meeting.  He loves Short squeezes.

Waterfallsparkles's picture

The energy costs during this cold snap will totally kill discressionary spending.  Plus, the Energy Companies, Oil, Propane Gas etc., are gouging the customers that want to stay warm.

GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps POTUS in his SOTU address can promise ObamaHeat and give all of his worshipers a warm, fuzzy feeling.

101 years and counting's picture

the fed began its taper when there was maximum bullishness (all peasants were "all in"), maximum leverage employed and record low net cash available.  as revenues and employment were about to plunge.  whocouldanode?

Sufiy's picture

Taper anyone?

Rob McEwen: Will Gold Soar on the Dow Drop?

 Rob McEwen is in demand now about his views on Gold with equity bubble being challenged last few days. Market manipulations can not be run forever and reality will be settling in at some point. This time can be very close now with Durable Goods report out at  - 4.3% (!) in December vs 2.6% in November. Last Jobs Number disaster can be not so "out of range' now as the bubble Media would like us all to think. Gold is at the very important juncture now and decisive move above $1270 will create the short covering fireworks.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just wait. Things will be better next month/quarter/year/QE.

Bearwagon's picture

You mean,  like, after they initially got much worse?

Temporalist's picture

CD is right there will be the 6th summer of recovery.  Unfortunately the weather will have a negative impact again.  Damn that weather!

SAT 800's picture

Obviously a result of Global Warming.

Shizzmoney's picture

This should be good for +200 on the DJIA today

AynRandFan's picture

I had no idea cap goods had been as strong as the charts show.  What the heck were corporations buying the last 5 years?

GeezerGeek's picture

Robots, which can produce 24x7 without incurring Obamacare expenses.

stant's picture

matt drudge "HAVE A EXIT PLAN" was for obama

onewayticket2's picture


obama is teflon to most voters.  the F$A doesnt understand a flippin' thing about what is going on.  they just want their check and obama wants to give it to them....and then some.  that's all they understand.


the "exit plan" was for all of us. 

praps's picture

The first $10bn taper hasn't even started yet.

gwar5's picture

So we're back to levels of 14 years ago.


Could be worser. Richard Russell just said an historic equity bear market is set to take away gains back to 1980 levels. Didn't say if that was nominal or real terms.

jtz5's picture

Was it on TV or an article?

papaswamp's picture

Not a surprise. HARPEX has been depressed for awhile which durable goods lags. Same pattern can be easily seen.