Spot The "Recovery" In This Abysmal Durable Goods Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We can waste many words to explain today's absolutely atrocious and recovery killing durable goods report (wait for it... wait for it... it's the weather's fault), or we can just show this once chart explaining all that has happened so far in the "recovery."

Ok fine: here it is in word format:

  • Durable goods which in November were said to have risen by 3.5%, were revised lower to 2.6% (we said there was something very fishy with the seasonally adjusted numbers last month). The December number, however, plunged by 4.3%, well below the expected 1.8%, and a paltry 0.1% increase Y/Y. Any time the Y/Y series is consistently negative, there is a recession. Of note: the durable goods orders for computers and electronics was at the lowest level since December 1993. We know... we know... Nobody orders computers when it is cold outside.
  • Durable goods ex transports plunged 1.6%, on expectations of a 0.5% increase, and the November print also was revised lower from 1.2% to 0.1%.

The more important core CapEx numbers, which are always said to be just around the corner but never actually appear, were evern worse:

Cap Goods orders nondefense ex aircraft plunged from 4.5% to -1.3% on expectations of a 0.3% increase. This despite the November revision lower to 2.6%.

Cap goods shipments nondefense ex aircraft also tumbled from 2.3% to -0.2%, on expectations of  a 0.1% increase. November also was revised lower from 2.8% to 2.3%.

 

So much for Tapering into strength. And now we look forward to the Fed saying what it meant when it said "data dependent" was really "snow in the cold winter" data dependent...

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Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:49 | 4374693 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bernanke has no clothes!

Money printing and blowing asset bubbles does not work.

Bernanke has printed and printed and printed right into another recession.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:49 | 4374702 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Because Obama

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:50 | 4374709 kliguy38
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Steve Liesman on CNBS...."these numbers are stunningly bad"...... you know its bad when that pumptard says it is

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | 4374718 Cdad
Cdad's picture

So...Taper postponed due to weather?  

Good lord...what have we become?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:56 | 4374732 Cult_of_Reason
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Re: What have we become?

Unites Banana Republics of America

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:17 | 4374810 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

I  bought a $30 T-shirt for $1.48 yesterday.

I'm doing my part to boost the GDP......gives me a warm cuddly feeling to know I am helping out.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:26 | 4374841 SilverIsKing
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Taper delayed due to weather = baseball game delayed due to rain

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:40 | 4374906 Platinum
Platinum's picture

If the Super Bowl is moved by weather, is it an omen?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:14 | 4375066 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

If bad weather is to blame then how can Camada ever outperform its peers?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | 4374724 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

+100 kliguy

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:57 | 4374740 fonzannoon
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This is the fed's moment to change the narrative. Expect them to start ramping up QE. Expect their message to change to "so we were right to do what we were doing, and will now continue on the path that we feel is best". Expect the business news channels to come out in full in defense of the fed (even moarer) and expect Jon Stewart etc. to start earning his paycheck and pushing this agenda.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:01 | 4374753 Kaiser Sousa
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Dow 20,000...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:50 | 4374944 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1 - after a brief bout of fake volatility

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:14 | 4374797 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Except in his retarded state of mind the problem is the FED hasn't printed enough fiat.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 12:08 | 4375336 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Krugman's theory, soon to be QEen Yellen's proposal. The libtards will claim Yellen proposed this a while back but nobody listened.

To make up for it they'll double or triple QE and call it something else. 

Send a JP Morgan $20,000 gift card to everyone on food stamps?  Many politicians have an interest in JPM.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:53 | 4374956 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

There is no recession until we say there is.

-The fed, CNBC, et al.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | 4374720 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

So it would seem just pretending that all is well doesn't result in an economic boom.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:16 | 4374803 NoDebt
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I've been sounding the recession alarm on here since August.  $100+ oil, interest rates up 100 bps just on the mention of tapering, employment still flat on it's back (and all low wage jobs).... and then we do a +3% GDP print for the 3rd quarter, I knew it would be rough sledding back down, burning off inventory and discounting out the wazoo for the Christmas shopping season.

After all that, you know what I figured out?  Nobody cares.  You've seen the last DECLARED recession in your lifetime.  It's all about "recovery" now.  Sometimes more recovery, sometimes less, but it will never be called anything but recovery for the rest of our lives.  And why should it not be called that?  If the economy is doing better, that's OK, but what really revs things up is when things slump and the Fed un-tapers.  Yeah, SOMEBODY is always in recovery mode.  That somebody probably isn't you or me, though.

Oh, by the way, futures are showing green, as they were before this report, so you can see how much Wall St. cares about this "awful" print.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:33 | 4374870 corporatewhore
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Recession?  We've never come out of this DEPRESSION except for silly meaningless statistical lies published by our government.  Quit pussyfooting around calling it The Great Recession because it isn't.  It's DEPRESSION.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:41 | 4374911 NoDebt
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Yeah, I think I'm one of the originals who called this a Depression.  I'm merely focussing on the coming recession within the overall depression in this post.  

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:51 | 4374946 GeezerGeek
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I believe that it was during the Carter administration that a top economic advisor - I wish I recalled his name, but it's not important - refused to use words like recession and depression. He chose, instead, to call it a 'banana'.

Perhaps in this politically-correct, euphemistic environment we should use a phrase like 'recovery-challenged'.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:02 | 4375010 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Yes ... I think about that semi-regularly

Alfred Kahn.  I liked him.  Of course m... I was young and foolish then

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:48 | 4374697 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Tapr off

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:50 | 4374712 Headbanger
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Bullshit.  QE has failed miserably and the Big Banks aren't going for that bull crap now that the Bernanke is leaving and Obozo has lost all power. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:57 | 4374737 Blano
Blano's picture

TeleNegro has lost all power??  He sure doesn't act like it.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:18 | 4374811 KickIce
KickIce's picture

He's the Messiah, just ask him.

Christ created wine he creates bullshit, everyone has their respective talents.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:51 | 4374711 praps
Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:19 | 4375686 DosZap
DosZap's picture

THERE is/will be  NO recovery, and won't be until asshat is impeached or out of orfice.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:50 | 4374713 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Come on, Yellen! Untaper already! ... I dare you ...  ;-)

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | 4374730 Waterfallsparkles
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Bernanke will give the ultimate Short squeeze for his last Meeting.  He loves Short squeezes.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:51 | 4374715 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

The energy costs during this cold snap will totally kill discressionary spending.  Plus, the Energy Companies, Oil, Propane Gas etc., are gouging the customers that want to stay warm.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:56 | 4374967 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps POTUS in his SOTU address can promise ObamaHeat and give all of his worshipers a warm, fuzzy feeling.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:51 | 4374717 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the fed began its taper when there was maximum bullishness (all peasants were "all in"), maximum leverage employed and record low net cash available.  as revenues and employment were about to plunge.  whocouldanode?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | 4374719 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Taper anyone?


Rob McEwen: Will Gold Soar on the Dow Drop?

 Rob McEwen is in demand now about his views on Gold with equity bubble being challenged last few days. Market manipulations can not be run forever and reality will be settling in at some point. This time can be very close now with Durable Goods report out at  - 4.3% (!) in December vs 2.6% in November. Last Jobs Number disaster can be not so "out of range' now as the bubble Media would like us all to think. Gold is at the very important juncture now and decisive move above $1270 will create the short covering fireworks.

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/rob-mcewen-will-gold-soar-on-dow-dro...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | 4374723 Cognitive Dissonance
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Just wait. Things will be better next month/quarter/year/QE.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:56 | 4374738 Bearwagon
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You mean,  like, after they initially got much worse?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:56 | 4374968 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

CD is right there will be the 6th summer of recovery.  Unfortunately the weather will have a negative impact again.  Damn that weather!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | 4374725 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Obviously a result of Global Warming.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:56 | 4374734 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This should be good for +200 on the DJIA today

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:22 | 4374825 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

why so conservative???

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:59 | 4374743 AynRandFan
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I had no idea cap goods had been as strong as the charts show.  What the heck were corporations buying the last 5 years?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:19 | 4374819 youngman
youngman's picture

Pink Slips

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:58 | 4374980 GeezerGeek
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Robots, which can produce 24x7 without incurring Obamacare expenses.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:07 | 4375023 F22
F22's picture

Inventory.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:59 | 4374747 stant
stant's picture

matt drudge "HAVE A EXIT PLAN" was for obama

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:06 | 4374781 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

nope.

obama is teflon to most voters.  the F$A doesnt understand a flippin' thing about what is going on.  they just want their check and obama wants to give it to them....and then some.  that's all they understand.

 

the "exit plan" was for all of us. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:02 | 4374761 praps
praps's picture

The first $10bn taper hasn't even started yet.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:04 | 4374765 gwar5
gwar5's picture

So we're back to levels of 14 years ago.

 

Could be worser. Richard Russell just said an historic equity bear market is set to take away gains back to 1980 levels. Didn't say if that was nominal or real terms.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:10 | 4375049 jtz5
jtz5's picture

Was it on TV or an article?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:04 | 4374768 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Not a surprise. HARPEX has been depressed for awhile which durable goods lags. Same pattern can be easily seen.
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years5&&data...

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