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Spot The "Recovery" In This Abysmal Durable Goods Chart

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We can waste many words to explain today's absolutely atrocious and recovery killing durable goods report (wait for it... wait for it... it's the weather's fault), or we can just show this once chart explaining all that has happened so far in the "recovery."

Ok fine: here it is in word format:

  • Durable goods which in November were said to have risen by 3.5%, were revised lower to 2.6% (we said there was something very fishy with the seasonally adjusted numbers last month). The December number, however, plunged by 4.3%, well below the expected 1.8%, and a paltry 0.1% increase Y/Y. Any time the Y/Y series is consistently negative, there is a recession. Of note: the durable goods orders for computers and electronics was at the lowest level since December 1993. We know... we know... Nobody orders computers when it is cold outside.
  • Durable goods ex transports plunged 1.6%, on expectations of a 0.5% increase, and the November print also was revised lower from 1.2% to 0.1%.

The more important core CapEx numbers, which are always said to be just around the corner but never actually appear, were evern worse:

Cap Goods orders nondefense ex aircraft plunged from 4.5% to -1.3% on expectations of a 0.3% increase. This despite the November revision lower to 2.6%.

Cap goods shipments nondefense ex aircraft also tumbled from 2.3% to -0.2%, on expectations of  a 0.1% increase. November also was revised lower from 2.8% to 2.3%.

 

So much for Tapering into strength. And now we look forward to the Fed saying what it meant when it said "data dependent" was really "snow in the cold winter" data dependent...

 


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Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bernanke has no clothes!

Money printing and blowing asset bubbles does not work.

Bernanke has printed and printed and printed right into another recession.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Because Obama

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:50 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Steve Liesman on CNBS...."these numbers are stunningly bad"...... you know its bad when that pumptard says it is

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

So...Taper postponed due to weather?  

Good lord...what have we become?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Re: What have we become?

Unites Banana Republics of America

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

I  bought a $30 T-shirt for $1.48 yesterday.

I'm doing my part to boost the GDP......gives me a warm cuddly feeling to know I am helping out.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:26 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Taper delayed due to weather = baseball game delayed due to rain

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Platinum
Platinum's picture

If the Super Bowl is moved by weather, is it an omen?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:14 | Link to Comment SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

If bad weather is to blame then how can Camada ever outperform its peers?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

+100 kliguy

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:57 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is the fed's moment to change the narrative. Expect them to start ramping up QE. Expect their message to change to "so we were right to do what we were doing, and will now continue on the path that we feel is best". Expect the business news channels to come out in full in defense of the fed (even moarer) and expect Jon Stewart etc. to start earning his paycheck and pushing this agenda.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Dow 20,000...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:50 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1 - after a brief bout of fake volatility

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:09 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Those happy pills are really workin for ya today huh?.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:14 | Link to Comment KickIce
KickIce's picture

Except in his retarded state of mind the problem is the FED hasn't printed enough fiat.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 12:08 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Krugman's theory, soon to be QEen Yellen's proposal. The libtards will claim Yellen proposed this a while back but nobody listened.

To make up for it they'll double or triple QE and call it something else. 

Send a JP Morgan $20,000 gift card to everyone on food stamps?  Many politicians have an interest in JPM.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

There is no recession until we say there is.

-The fed, CNBC, et al.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

So it would seem just pretending that all is well doesn't result in an economic boom.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:16 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I've been sounding the recession alarm on here since August.  $100+ oil, interest rates up 100 bps just on the mention of tapering, employment still flat on it's back (and all low wage jobs).... and then we do a +3% GDP print for the 3rd quarter, I knew it would be rough sledding back down, burning off inventory and discounting out the wazoo for the Christmas shopping season.

After all that, you know what I figured out?  Nobody cares.  You've seen the last DECLARED recession in your lifetime.  It's all about "recovery" now.  Sometimes more recovery, sometimes less, but it will never be called anything but recovery for the rest of our lives.  And why should it not be called that?  If the economy is doing better, that's OK, but what really revs things up is when things slump and the Fed un-tapers.  Yeah, SOMEBODY is always in recovery mode.  That somebody probably isn't you or me, though.

Oh, by the way, futures are showing green, as they were before this report, so you can see how much Wall St. cares about this "awful" print.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:33 | Link to Comment corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

Recession?  We've never come out of this DEPRESSION except for silly meaningless statistical lies published by our government.  Quit pussyfooting around calling it The Great Recession because it isn't.  It's DEPRESSION.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:41 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, I think I'm one of the originals who called this a Depression.  I'm merely focussing on the coming recession within the overall depression in this post.  

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:51 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I believe that it was during the Carter administration that a top economic advisor - I wish I recalled his name, but it's not important - refused to use words like recession and depression. He chose, instead, to call it a 'banana'.

Perhaps in this politically-correct, euphemistic environment we should use a phrase like 'recovery-challenged'.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:02 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Yes ... I think about that semi-regularly

Alfred Kahn.  I liked him.  Of course m... I was young and foolish then

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Tapr off

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Bullshit.  QE has failed miserably and the Big Banks aren't going for that bull crap now that the Bernanke is leaving and Obozo has lost all power. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

TeleNegro has lost all power??  He sure doesn't act like it.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:18 | Link to Comment KickIce
KickIce's picture

He's the Messiah, just ask him.

Christ created wine he creates bullshit, everyone has their respective talents.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:51 | Link to Comment praps
Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:19 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

THERE is/will be  NO recovery, and won't be until asshat is impeached or out of orfice.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Come on, Yellen! Untaper already! ... I dare you ...  ;-)

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Bernanke will give the ultimate Short squeeze for his last Meeting.  He loves Short squeezes.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

The energy costs during this cold snap will totally kill discressionary spending.  Plus, the Energy Companies, Oil, Propane Gas etc., are gouging the customers that want to stay warm.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps POTUS in his SOTU address can promise ObamaHeat and give all of his worshipers a warm, fuzzy feeling.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:51 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the fed began its taper when there was maximum bullishness (all peasants were "all in"), maximum leverage employed and record low net cash available.  as revenues and employment were about to plunge.  whocouldanode?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Taper anyone?


Rob McEwen: Will Gold Soar on the Dow Drop?

 Rob McEwen is in demand now about his views on Gold with equity bubble being challenged last few days. Market manipulations can not be run forever and reality will be settling in at some point. This time can be very close now with Durable Goods report out at  - 4.3% (!) in December vs 2.6% in November. Last Jobs Number disaster can be not so "out of range' now as the bubble Media would like us all to think. Gold is at the very important juncture now and decisive move above $1270 will create the short covering fireworks.

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/rob-mcewen-will-gold-soar-on-dow-dro...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just wait. Things will be better next month/quarter/year/QE.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

You mean,  like, after they initially got much worse?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

CD is right there will be the 6th summer of recovery.  Unfortunately the weather will have a negative impact again.  Damn that weather!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:53 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Obviously a result of Global Warming.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This should be good for +200 on the DJIA today

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

why so conservative???

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:59 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

I had no idea cap goods had been as strong as the charts show.  What the heck were corporations buying the last 5 years?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:19 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Pink Slips

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:58 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Robots, which can produce 24x7 without incurring Obamacare expenses.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:07 | Link to Comment F22
F22's picture

Inventory.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:16 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Lices.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 09:59 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

matt drudge "HAVE A EXIT PLAN" was for obama

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:06 | Link to Comment onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

nope.

obama is teflon to most voters.  the F$A doesnt understand a flippin' thing about what is going on.  they just want their check and obama wants to give it to them....and then some.  that's all they understand.

 

the "exit plan" was for all of us. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:02 | Link to Comment praps
praps's picture

The first $10bn taper hasn't even started yet.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:04 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

So we're back to levels of 14 years ago.

 

Could be worser. Richard Russell just said an historic equity bear market is set to take away gains back to 1980 levels. Didn't say if that was nominal or real terms.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:10 | Link to Comment jtz5
jtz5's picture

Was it on TV or an article?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:04 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Not a surprise. HARPEX has been depressed for awhile which durable goods lags. Same pattern can be easily seen.
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years5&&data...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

bold my emphasis...

"WASHINGTON — A record drop in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bills in December sent a reminder that the government might have to pay higher interest rates on its debt to continue to attract investors. China reduced its stake and lost the position it's held for more than a year as the largest foreign holder of Treasury debt. Japan retook the top spot as it boosted its Treasury holdings. The Treasury Department said foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bills fell by a record $53 billion in December. That topped the previous record drop of $44.5 billion in April 2009.
Private analysts, though, were split over the significance of the decline.(Krugman?????) Some doubted that the drop in foreign holdings of short-term Treasuries signified growing unease about holding U.S. debt. They noted that net purchases of longer-term Treasury debt rose in December by $70 billion. But other economists (Everybody with half a brain) saw the decline as a warning signal. They fear that foreigners, especially the Chinese, have begun to worry about record-high U.S. budget deficits and are looking to diversify their holdings.

A sustained drop in foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets could lead to higher U.S. interest rates and falling stock prices. Those trends could threaten the U.S. recovery. But economists said they see no such evidence yet.The Treasury report showed that China reduced its holdings of Treasury securities by $34.2 billion in December. Alan Meltzer, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University, said China's shift should be a wake-up call for Washington. "The Chinese are worried that we have unsustainable debt levels, and we do not have a policy for dealing with it," Meltzer said.

He said the Chinese worry that confidence in the U.S. government's ability to repay its debt could erode. That would cause the value of Treasurys and the dollar to fall – and lead to losses on Beijing's' U.S. debt holdings. The Obama administration on Feb. 1 released a budget plan that projects the deficit for this year will total a record $1.56 trillion. That would surpass last year's record of $1.4 trillion deficit."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20100216/us-foreign-holdings/

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:07 | Link to Comment ifishivote
ifishivote's picture

People seem to forget all of the money that was pumped into the economy last year was due to Hurricane Sandy. I personally spent around 150k putting my life back together.  My money is on lock down going forward for a long time. Obama better pray for another Hurricane Sandy.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:07 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Stimulus?  Krugman's right?  

Well ... ask New Orleans how well that worked.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Was that $150k of insurance $$ or your own? I truly feel for anyone negatively affected by any storm - been there - done that. Just wondering.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:07 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I have a pretty well-off neighbor, not a friend, just someone I see at the Post Office, who's all excited about buying the dip. Really. I'm not making this up. I replied with something like, "hmm, well there's no way to tell how these things will go is there"; there's no use trying to talk them, stupid is incurable.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:37 | Link to Comment tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

Buying the dip? In times like this? In the past, maybe, we are in uncharted territory irregardless of whoever says history repeats itself or rhymes or some othr shyatt - it all boils down to a favorite one liner "That's like catching a falling knife " 

 

I say good luck with that *rolls eyes*

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

irregardless...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:17 | Link to Comment corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I'm not worrying.  I'm too busy dancing my head off to Eminem and singing along.  "I'm friends with the monster under my bed, get along with the voices inside of my head".  Can I make this last 48 hours?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:22 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

But Obama tonight will announce 500 billion more in governement spending....you got to buy the votes now...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

So you are the one voting for the idiots. Now that explains it all.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:47 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

What should maybe make the market shit itself...is how badly durable goods lag behind recessions. The last 'official' recession...durable goods took several months to react. Considering how monkey pumped everything is...this one will bitchslap the crap out of a lot of people.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:42 | Link to Comment tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

Going to have to resurrect and makeover the government cash for clunkers program

 

"Cash for ####" to pull outta this skid...

replace #### with the next new thing

 

Cash for couches

Cash for recliners

Cash for washers

Cash for Dryers

Cash for fridges

Cash for kitchen remodel

Cash for Bathroom remodel - just think, cash for your clunker toilet... I'll smile everytime I launch a liberal on my newly purchased cash for clunker porcelain throne each morning

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:06 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Can I get cash for an old notebook with a 486 processor? I just found it under a pile of other junk in my garage. Can I get enough to get one of those killer i7 gaming notebooks? 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:09 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

So ... I should gear up my construction company?

I don't think so.

I am gearing up to buy CRE when it shows a CAP rate of 10% at $6 rents

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Gear down.

Cut any overheads that you still can.

Nail down overdue A/Rs ,and stop giving credit.

I still remember how all my clients,no matter how rich, stopped paying

back in 2008 , for four months.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:12 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

I'm interested in cash for hookers program. Will that be included?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:52 | Link to Comment dogmete
dogmete's picture

Obviously the QE doesn't work so well. Only made rich people richer at the expense of everyone else. I think the taper might still be on but that would be supposing the Fed is run by humans. That's probably a mistake.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:08 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

What makes you believe that the purpose of QE wasn't to make rich people richer? 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:54 | Link to Comment joego1
joego1's picture

Yeah but the WSJ says that Bernanke May have had "The most successful tenure In Fed history". Oink Oink!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

0.00% is the muddle through new normal...get used to it and given everything fantastical going on, I'd say 0.00% is damn good.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:07 | Link to Comment corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

Is it possible to have an endless depression because that's what it's looking like.  Jobs are so hard to get.  So many are on EBT. Homes are up for sale but so few individuals/families are buying.  Food and gasoline are totally expensive.  Taxes are outrageous.  Health care unaffordable.  Is anything working anymore?  Can government fix anything?  (I know the answer to the last one).  In short, i've decided it isn't a depression but a total clusterfuck.  I don't even think that war can get us out of this mess and I don't want war at all.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:10 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The Dark Ages weren't all that bad, relatively speaking, for the nobility. TPTB hope it will be the same this time, as they continue to implement their plan.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 11:11 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

The depression lasted 22 years.  That leaves a bunch more shat to go through.  This time will be longer because of the bailouts.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

But Jamie Dimon just told us the economy is starting to fire on all cylinders. Or is that all cylinders of the new taxpayer funded Roadster he just bought with his 100% raise? Might have gotten confused. 

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