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These Are The Riskiest Emerging Markets

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Update: while this was initially posted yesterday, January 28, in light of what is happening this morning, it is prudent to revisit this topic.

* * *

Now that EMs are fully in the public eye, Bank of America has updated its "most important external vulnerability indicators" table for emerging markets. The full table is below - it shows seven indicators for 55 emerging and frontier markets: four of them focus on the stocks of external assets and liabilities (FX reserves; net external position of the banking sector; net international investment position of the economy; and external debt/exports ratio) and three highlight the external funding risk (FX reserves/short-term debt ratio; current account balance; and basic balance = current account balance + FDI).

However for those who don't have the patience to pull all the numbers and compile a datatable, here is a chart which flags the highest external risk among the 10 most prominent EMs broken down by liquidity (reserves over near-term maturities) on the X-axis and capital flows (current account as % of GDP) on the Y-axis. It should come as no surprise, that Turkey is worst, followed by South Africa, India and Indonesia. China, Korea and Russia have current account surpluses and strong coverage of short-term debt by reserves. Brazil also has high reserve coverage of short-term debt. Mexico and Poland have small current account deficits and healthy reserve coverage, in addition to their IMF Flexible Credit Lines. As for Argentina, forgetabout it.

 

Full data:

Source: Bank of America

 


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Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

Why is USA not on this list of ghetto nations?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

dictator regimes are to dangerous to invest in

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:09 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

Or, perhaps soon...once TPP pact signed, more outsourcing... 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:39 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I hate to say it; but I think you may have hit on one reason New Yawk is going in the toilet.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:00 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Reserve currency my man, almost every good in the world can basically be purchased with a US Federal note. This made a lot of sense when America was the greatest cerditor nation the world has ever seen. Of course, Bernanke, and soon Yellen, are trying to destroy the USA status as the reserve currency. Most American citizens have no idea how much they benefit. When it is gone , they may get upset.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

As long as Jamie's bonus is safe we're cool.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:56 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

and a lot of "bad" can be purchased with Dollars.

Why else would they be coveted by Jamie and Lloyd?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Why is USA not on this list of ghetto nations?

Our books are "cooked" until they are super, duper, clean...clean...clean...and totally transparent. Full faith and all that...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:32 | Link to Comment The Vineyard
The Vineyard's picture

I live in South Korea.  I hope the economy doesn't tank.  I was here in 97 when all of Asia shit the bed.  Scary times.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:38 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I don't know. Most dangerous markets? WTF; have you looked at New York lately? It's not dangerous enough? oh, pardon me. You like swimming with white sharks, fine, fine 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:38 | Link to Comment jubber
jubber's picture

Sout Africa recently hit an ATH

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:42 | Link to Comment kodachrome
kodachrome's picture

http://bitvestor.us/?ref=NzB3G8gr4q886H7 Check out this ponzi scheme. Seems groundfloorish so I put a little bit in for speculation. Except, can you call it a ponzi if it's blatently expressing itself as such? New investors pay out the old ones? I am curious to see how far this thing goes before it blows.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:56 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

Fuck off

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Looks like you picked the wrong day to wear your see thru leggings.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:04 | Link to Comment aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

A ponzi can be denominated in any currency, dollars, gold, corn, dotcom stocks, etc. 

This has been done before with bitcoin and people will keep doing it... for fun I guess? The catch is, they won't merely stop paying a return when new investors lose interest - the guy running it is going to abscond with your funds altogether.

Store bitcoin in your own offline wallet and nowhere else.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

cheap labor... no evirnmental rules... unstable governments... WHAT CAN GO WRONG?!?!?

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:45 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"riskiest"?  can someone explain what risk is??

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

anything that doesn't promise a 200% return in the first 6 months!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:43 | Link to Comment DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

anything that doesn't promise a 200% return in the first 6 months, backstopped by a Central Bank somewhere if it doesn't!!!

DaddyO

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:02 | Link to Comment KickIce
KickIce's picture

Having an illegal alien as Commander and Chief.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

This is a list of the pots. USA is in the Kettle catagory.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Panem et Circus
Panem et Circus's picture

Careful not to comment about the color of kitchen implements, that might be construed to be racist.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:42 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I am a racist. and I'm not going to pretend to be stupid enough to believe people are "equal". that's just dumb.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Define "Racist".  The kind that favors their own race or Tribe whenever possible and reasonable, or the kind who refuses to give another race an opportunity? Big difference.

Note that 'racism' is perfectly acceptable to practice (and get away with it) for other races.  Likewise, funny/witty and mild racial slurs toward whites or towards men are OK also, judging by the TV shows and movies, where these two -- especially white men -- are the butt of all jokes that deal with gender or race.

Either all races and genders are fair game (for satire) or no one is -- w/o exceptions.

Voltaire: "To find out who rules over you, simply find out whom you are not allowed to criticize."

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:49 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Emerging markets are being pummeled by the FED and other large central banks.

The U.S. would be Argentina or Venezuela if we didn't have the reserve currency and a lot of people volunteering to die for poppy fields and oil.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:23 | Link to Comment TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

You'll need Argentina, believe me.

I wish you didn't. I wish we weren't into this clusterfuck. But we are deep, deep into it.

Please, try to keep your élites to yourselves, away from down here.

 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 15:01 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

No, it's survival of the fittest, 3 of us so far made it, you are banking on a 4th you say. Good luck, time is running out on you.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

"Please, try to keep your élites to yourselves, away from down here."

Haha! Blame the rich.  The only elites you have left there are the socialists who run the country, anyone that could, already left to escape Peronism and Kirchner's capital controls.  She even banned gold sales so the remaining peons cant protect their savings.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Sparky_ZA
Sparky_ZA's picture

Sweet, I am from South Africa. Bad news is good........right!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Only on Wall Street.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Sparky_ZA
Sparky_ZA's picture

+1 for the good news

I will say one other thing. Wish I was in America. When economies here in Africa tank .....the blood flows. Fortnately I have done my millitary training and very effective with assault rifles. Just wish I had one.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

I will say one other thing. Wish I was in America. When economies here in Africa tank .....the blood flows.

And what makes you think that just because the USDs reserve status which will insulate it through the initial global currency shocks but will ultimately lead to it's collapse like everywhere else is the better alternative?...

You want to see the worst of the worst in action?  Wait till the "Land of the Free Home of Brave" lose the only thing that is sacred in their lives and no longer have a credit or welfare card that is honored when the banks close there windows?  This Country by far is the worst scourge and pariah on the face of the earth because it has no dignity, no integrity, and no understanding of it's own history.

"Wherever you are" stay close to your family, your friends and have a plan to stay out of heavily populated urban areas -with sources for water and food.

That's it and all that matters in a nutshell.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:57 | Link to Comment syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Nothing says "low-risk" quite like $17,272,810,445,407 in natl. debt, a corrupt legislature, and a community organizer dictator wanna be as head of state.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

You forgot unfunded liabilities if you really want to get pissed.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:27 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Obama will have you know that the 17 trillion+ in official debt (closer to 200 trillion USD when actual figures, taking into account unfunded LIABILITIES) is perfectly reasonable given the rollout of the new MyRApe mandatory retirement saving plan confiscation scheme...errr...plan.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

the debt will never be paid back/down, power is leaking away from the US, and the goal for many in the ranks of the Fed and Treasury is simply keeping the dollar strong enough, long enough, to get the US into another middle eastern war or two.

Granted - I assume that for example the FOMC is concerned about things other than the middle class or the long term health of the U.S.

Their loyalties are to other ideals, and/or to other nations.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

We've had about 450 tons of bottomfish cancelled this morning for Vietnam, Ukraine and PRC so on the surface would seem things are starting to bite as each buyer noted difficulties in obtaining bank financing in each case.

When the Fed defacates the world gets covered in excrement.

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:22 | Link to Comment eurogold
eurogold's picture

For how much longer ? This Ponzi is only teaching the World to kill the "Reserve Currency" called the U.S. Dollar faster.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:44 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yeah, we're teetering on the brink of world financial cats. number two; but fortunately most people haven't noticed yet. good post; like to hear the real news.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:36 | Link to Comment nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

There is an important missing piece in the LatAm financial theater: Cuba. It is a large money sink and since Venezuela's teats went dry it started sucking Brazil's harder.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Bet it's hard to get any nourishment from a trannies tits.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:21 | Link to Comment laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

no  harm in trying

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:19 | Link to Comment laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

very good observation

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

The slump has been “fun to watch,” Thomas Stolper, the chief currency strategist in London at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said by phone Jan. 24. "

Yes, fun to watch, as the poor get poorer...........

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 22:17 | Link to Comment laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

i am really surprised at how bad the numbers look for Chile.

 

Simon Black call your office (saloon)

 

Gabon is the stand out. I am surprised Simon has not recommended it yet.

 

"I am just back from the airport in Gabon and boy let me tell you...blah lblah blah" You can buy a house and gold here and get a gabon passport for only 49.99 - see my website.  Plus vat of course

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:21 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

yeah, no shit. 4 years of that meaningless bauble.

I doubt he can afford to return to the USA now.

These charts have no meanings because when you have a domino effect such as this there simply is no way to quantify risk.

European banks are at the center of this...I would avoid all them.
You should already look past the defaults at this point.

Love Citigroup here...AS A PLACE TO PUT SAVINGS.
I would not be buying the equity at this time until things "get real."

This will involve a shooting war.
Probably something big and bloody like the last time.
"Lost in a Roman
Wilderness of Pain
And all the Children are Insane."

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:12 | Link to Comment kragsquest
kragsquest's picture

Penny stocks?  Unlimited downside risk....Does Supatcha Resources ring a bell?  And all those Chinese stocks that are basically Ponzis?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Panem et Circus
Panem et Circus's picture

Don't forget 30 yr treasuries! Well, and 10yr, and... well all of them.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:13 | Link to Comment BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Erdogan's former "friends" and bankers are after him...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:22 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

STFB    Short the fuking bounce, TTCB    test those circuit breakers.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:24 | Link to Comment eurogold
eurogold's picture

Let's hope so !

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:40 | Link to Comment XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

These Are The Riskiest Emerging Markets

 

You missed out one 

 

Shitcoins!

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:25 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Last one out is a rotten egg.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Hungary is worth taking a look at, imho.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:41 | Link to Comment ilikepies
ilikepies's picture

If you can point to it on map you more about Hungary than me...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:49 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

it's all a matter of probabilities. I like the 100% probability that Silver will be worth more in two years than it is now. Hungary, meh. Who know?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:42 | Link to Comment mclant004
mclant004's picture

I live in South Africa. 

Our politicians steal

Our society is one of the most divided on earth, split along cultural, ethnic, wealth and geographic lines.

We have had 30% plus unemployment (Government figures!) For a long time!

We have a HiV Pandemic which is taking out the young productive people.\

We have a brain drain

Oure welfare state is expanding rapidly

But

We have a deal with the ruskies for 8 nuclear reactors (I dont support nukes) Which must bring in some capital flows, even though I guarantee this is a stupid idea for sa it must be a temporary boost to heavy industry and Labour

We are hosting the massive square kilomenter array Which also must be a big revenue earner

Oh and there is this........

"South Africa is one of the world's leading mining and mineral-processing countries.[28] Though mining's contribution to the national GDP has fallen from 21% in 1970 to 6% in 2011, it still represents almost 60% of exports.[29] The mining sector accounts for up to 9% of value added.[30]

In 2008, South Africa's estimated share of world platinum production amounted to 77%; kyanite and other materials, 55%; chromium, 45%; palladium, 39%; vermiculite, 39%; vanadium, 38%;zirconium, 30%; manganese, 21%; rutile, 20%; ilmenite, 19%; gold, 11%; fluorspar, 6%; aluminium, 2%; antimony, 2%; iron ore, 2%; nickel, 2%; and phosphate rock, 1%.[28] South Africa also accounted for nearly 5% of the world's polished diamond production by value.[28] The country's estimated share of world reserves of platinum group metals amounted to 89%; hafnium, 46%;zirconium, 27%; vanadium, 23%; manganese, 19%; rutile, 18%; fluorspar, 18%; gold, 13%; phosphate rock, 10%; ilmenite, 9%; and nickel, 5%.[28] It is also the world's third largest coal exporter.[31]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_South_Africa#Natural_resources

So we are in a shit state and we borrowed to much, but do you think our position is going to get worse?

Surely we have a few bargaining chips......

 

I would love to hear your comments..... Shitting myself that SA is going to be served to the bankers next, and they have had a lot already

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

Do you guys mine Unobtainium?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

just had a hunch based on some articles I've read on Ukraine recently:

How many Shtetlers noticed on Sunday that at least 26 of the Sunday Times’ Rich List of the 100 wealthiest South Africans were Jewish? That’s 26 percent!

that's pretty good - for being 0.2% of that country's population.... 

I can say no more - facts, of course, can be "hate"... but it will suffice to say that South Africa is very much in the Matrix, and you are surely fucked.  Or, at least 99.8% of you are.

p.s. the situation in Ukraine certainly involves members of a certain minority group owning the largest bank, chairing the central bank, owning many but not all of the newspapers, and at least 2, if not 3 of the top 5 tv stations, with a population representing 0.7% of the population...   and also 3 of the countries 4 millionaires.

This would seem to bear some relevance in terms of the happenings in Ukraine, but we can be sure that no one will cover this angle - which means a big part of the media story is left out.

Sheds light on just who the "russian" {cough cough} oligarchs were and how it was a deliberate, international effort, quite obviously, by the same group, to steal Russia's wealth - it's clearly the case, but most of all, what you can't do, is talk about this wildly disproportionate power in multiple countries of the west..... 

Hiding this power, and not preventing "hate" is the reason we may not speak about certain things.

 

Oh well...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:23 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"gun boat diplomacy" dead ahead.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Nailed it!

And just look at who represents the most awesome powerful military on the planet that is "raising the floor"of all it's career line officers in the most important area of it's strategic capability?

Meet junior Major General Jack Weinstein the one who will be replacing 2 and 3 star Generals!

To your point.  That's how much power this minority has not just in Russia but "elsewhere".

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Look, hating anyone merely for who their parents are is absurd, but "anti-Semitism" as a smear is really and primarily about hiding wildly disproportionate Jewish power. Abe Foxman is the fat sweaty master of this.  And it's wildly successful - people desperate to prove how righteous they are will deny facts as facts if they expose this power.  Henry Ford and Charles Lindbergh weren't dumb, and weren't hate-filled, they simply made the mistake of speaking the truth because of relatively benign, even benevolent nationalist feelings. 

There are so many Jeiwsh groups in the US that one of them is a conference of leaders of such groups.  and that group is just one of several that constantly have the ear of the President and government.  3 of the 5 major news networks are Jewish.  Not only are almost all major studio heads Jewish - it has been kept this way, deliberately, for 75 years or more - but you are the racist for suggesting this apepars to be a "closed shop"  - or for suggesting that it influences our perceptions of the Arab and Muslim world by putting those 1.3 billion people through the prism of a group representing less than 3% of us.

Internationally, Jews/Zionists have been well organized for centuries.  Their ability to influence the British and American governments before World War 1, and against the interest of the host populations in both nations, for "Zion" - helped ensure the deaths of many hundreds of thousands in a war having nothing to do with their own nations' security.  We saw it before WW2, the influence on FDR, we saw it with Iraq and see it now with Iran.

War and death are more important to prevent, and incredible unfairness to both the majority and other minorities is more of an injustice than simply speaking the truth - and that is Jews are an incredibly ethnocentric group, well-coordinated, have powerful lobbies in the US, Canada, UK, France, and elsewhere whivh have power far outsized to their numbers, and it's because of money.

They ravaged Russia under Yeltsin, and yes, 'as' an international consortium of Jews.  I don't support either hate or lies - but I think the power of the 'antisemite' smear, which serves mainly to hide the extent and internationality and ethnocentrism of {}man or most{} Jews, has to be exposed for what it is.

 

The alternative is war after war after war and ongoing theft and discrimination and deceit about who has power and why.  

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

There should be laws forbidding Tribe members from owning anything, or practicing certain professions, in fact they should all be forced to live only in certain areas, and wear identifiable clothing.  Maybe then the non - Tribe members might be able compete ... or not.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

double post

my bad

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Panem et Circus
Panem et Circus's picture

We are in a global scramble for tangible assets. You have natural resources. You have arable land. You are well located from a trade standpoint.

China, Russia, and the Western Elites have already evaluated how best to slice your country up. You need to be as personally self-sufficient as possible in order to not drown in the tsunami that is coming to your shores. No man is an island though, so connect with some like-minded neighbors, friends, family, etc and get them as self-sufficient as possible. Best of luck, and God bless.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:52 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You have two important protective factors. the deal with Russia; nobody wants to fuck with them by fucking you up; and two there's always got to be someplace stable where you go to get your strategic metals. I don't think you're on the list. Basically, you're an earner; you sell stuff.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:45 | Link to Comment mrbadexample
mrbadexample's picture

Hey where are you "therideneverends"? Just wanted to let you know I left some excess liquidity in the crack of your wife's v bottom this morning. Should still be there when you get back.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:55 | Link to Comment TheCosmicTaco
TheCosmicTaco's picture

The granddaddy of all emerging markets is China, and when that sucker goes down with its $25 trillion credit bubble, it's gonna be like a tsunami, a hurricane, and an earthquake all happening at once. Emerging markets have had a great ride, but the party is over. Don't cry for me, Argentina...

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 10:53 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Was there a SOTU last night? Big headline I see is some congressman threatning a reporter. Seems we need more of that actually.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Panem et Circus
Panem et Circus's picture

SOTU, much like all that the US Government and Red Team/Blue Team do anymore, is just Panem et Circenses

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

What is going on here? Everyone just wakes up to this within a week? Fuck that, does not compute. 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:06 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

USA should be number 1 with its 17 trillion dollar debt

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

USA is not on the list because of its gold reserves in Fort Knox. (sarc)

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:21 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

Brazil is very close now to complete civil disorder.  The situation in Brazil has been deteriorating for the poor for some time (despite wondrous reports of how well billionaire international investors are doing there and a handful of wealthy Brazilians), but the poor and working class in Brazil have not participated in the economic growth of Brazil.  I encountered a group of Brazilians recently at an international Christian Conference here in Argentina, and their reports from inside the country, from among the poor communities (this is the analysis of pastors in poor neighborhoods, not billionaire, Davos participants) portrayed a simmering angry and hatred that was close to exploding any and every day in Brazil´s major cities.  Say what you want about Argentina or South Africa or Indonesia, the collapse of civil order is coming very soon in Brazil, probably first.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Panem et Circus
Panem et Circus's picture

They have lots of poor, and they have a socialist in charge. Sounds familiar, no?

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:45 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

The problems are deep-seeded.  First, there is the problem of language and education.  Outside of Brazil and Portugal, no one speaks Portugese, and the Spanish skills of the working-class and poor are very bad (I couldn´t understand half of what they were saying as their Spanish was littered with Portugese).  The result is a very poor education system (try finding the important books of Western Civilization translated into Portugese)  There is a racial problem, not as acute as in the United States, but very much built-in to the social life and perspectives of Brazilians (Turkey, Argentina, etc... do not have these problems).  The concentration of the population in the urban centers is an acute situation resulting in massive sprawling ghettos.  The real is strong-enough that narco-trafficers covet the Brazilian market, so drug use, economic waste, and the violence etc. that accompanies narco-trafficking in Brazil rivals that of Mexico and the United States (Argentina, for example, does not have this problem so acutely since the peso is not the preferred currency of Bolivian and Columbian cocaine cartels).

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

I don't always buy fiat, but when I do, I buy Yuan.

The Chinese are very long term thinkers.  I trust their wisdom over that of the West's moribund Keynesian Academy and dynastic crooks.

 

 

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 11:55 | Link to Comment drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Yada Yada Yada.  Domm n gloom. Doom n gloom. But the shit just keeps rolling along and the stock market keeps going up, gold going down, the elite hetting richer n richer and the serfs n pesdants sucking hind tit.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Wolf in the Wilds
Wolf in the Wilds's picture

Actually there is one thing missing from the above data:  hot money inflows in to the country.  The hot money position in Brazil and Korea will easily overwhelm the reserve positions of these countries.  It is a most peculiar thing.  The best way to monitor this is through the Net International Investment Position of a country.  In the case of Korea and Brazil, especially in the case of Korea, both have negative NIIP. Why does South Korea, an export giant, have a negative NIIP, vs massively HUGE positive positions in other major export countries, remain a mystery.  But nevertheless, this implies an outward flow of hot money will significantly impact both of these economies.

Wed, 01/29/2014 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

All these comments and no one noticed the following about Argentina and why the wheels are coming off:

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Exports_BP_2013_oil_...

Argentina is about to become a net importer of oil....

Hard currency from oil exports has been declining and is about to vanish. The exact same thing happened leadin up to Mubarak getting overthrown...

As always, follow the oil....

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!