A Turkey Of A Wealth Effect: Turkish Stocks Drop To July 2012 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture


As the investing world waits with baited breath for the outcome of the Turkish Central Bank's emergency meeting (released at 2200GMT) to see if they hike rates 300, 400, or 500bps and finally manage to persuade Erdogan that raising rates are essential; the Turkish stock market investors are voting (and selling). The Istanbul 100 index has plunged to its lowest level since July 2012 (and the Lira strength from spike lows has stabilized - just two days shy of record lows).


Turkish Stocks removing all that QE-driven ECB "whatever it takes" wealth effect...


We can only hope the CBT does not disappoint - even though most sell-side shops suspect they a) disappoint, and b) do not fix investors sentiment...


It seems the stop-run off the record lows for the Lira have ceased and Turkey's currency has stabilized 2-day offs its record lows...


Of course the Emerging Markets in general are all weak as the MSCI EM Index enters bear market territory once again from the 2011 cyclical peak...(and down over 11% in the last few months).


Charts: Bloomberg

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Tue, 01/28/2014 - 12:42 | 4375481 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Happy Thanksprinting!

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 12:45 | 4375495 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

If the Turks raise rates between 300 and 500 bps, shorting the Lira would become an expensive endeavour. 

If so, maybe Kyle Bass should short Yen and go long Lira. 

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 12:52 | 4375520 Pareto
Pareto's picture

+1 excellent carry and short burst of laughter.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 12:57 | 4375558 dpr10
dpr10's picture

not at all cause they are so behind the curve;;))just trying to play catch up..

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:05 | 4375586 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

The MSCI EM chart resembles quite a few industrial commodity charts:

- copper

- aluminium

- lead

- nickel

- zinc

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:07 | 4375613 JoBob
JoBob's picture

What are the Turks using to bait their breaths?

I await with bated breath...

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 13:41 | 4375789 kodachrome
kodachrome's picture



Check out this ponzi scheme.

Seems groundfloorish so I put a little bit in for speculation.

Except, can you call it a ponzi if it's blatently expressing itself as such? New investors pay out the old ones? I am curious to see how far this thing goes before it blows.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 14:16 | 4375934 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Turkey well on their way to the Islamic shit hole their voters seem to want.  Soon enough, women will be discouraged from certain jobs, reducing the effective work force sector by sector.  In some provinces, girls will not be welcome in increasingly Islamic-studies oriented schools, until all you have is boys memorizing/reciting Koran.  The little remaining Hindu and Christian middle class minorities will abandon their enterprises and emmigrate when they can.  It is time to boot them from NATO unless things improve.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 15:33 | 4376416 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Hindus in turkey?Boy you are well informed.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 15:33 | 4376417 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Hindus in turkey?Boy you are well informed.

Tue, 01/28/2014 - 17:06 | 4376787 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Meh.  It bears repeating (as I've stated before), that the Turkish SE if famous/infamous for large rises and falls.

Hence, it's known as a great place to make or loose a lot of cash(ish).  Invest accordingly.  Next?

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