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Emerging Market Meltdown Resumes
As South Africa hiked rates this morning (whose effect on the Rand was promptly overwhelmed by the Lira collapsing back to weaker than pre-rate-hike) stock markets around the world are rapidly deteriorating and the safety of bonds and bullion is being sought aggressively. S&P futures are -10 from pre-Turkey; Dow -100; Nikkei -30; and EEM swung from up over 2% to down almost 1% in the pre-open. Treasuries are 6bps tighter than post-Turkey and gold (and silver) are rallying smartly back up to $1268 (+$20 from post-Turkey lows). It would seem EM turmoil is un-fixed. Turkish stocks are collapsing and the Hungarian Forint is collapsing.
Dow and Nikkei have given it all back...
as have Emerging Market stocks...
As Turkish stocks collapse...
European Stocks are tanking...
and the contagion spreads to other currencies...
As Emergening Market CDS explode...
S&P futures are getting slammed...
Bonds are surging...
and so is gold...
We can't help but see the irony of this tumult and the possibility of a global financial meltdown occurring on the day of Bernanke's last FOMC meeting...
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Whoever sold those vix calls is gonna get killed
Whomever sold those vix calls is gonna get bailed out.
Fixed.
Well my trade which I was touting all of December is looking good today.
Short DOW at 16,000
Long Gold at 1,220
This was the best opportunity in a long time. Both trades are off 20 year trendlines.
If the markets are making some sort of attempt to force Yelanke's hands, they are really going to rock some accounts when the Fed tightens today.
Is this what it looks like when the world's central banks start losing control?
Because if so, it's gonna make 2008 look like a walk in the park and there will be no rock big enough for those miserable cretins to hide under
But should this be such a surprise!? All here knew many months ago this implosion would happen but the reality of it wasn't believed just like wars aren't until they happen.
Well, it's finally here now!
MAJOR SUPPORT MAY SOON BE BROKEN:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WlbKeWFrQ8Y/UugscJ99saI/AAAAAAAAXoo/o3Dt-taeKY...
From Daneric's blog
Doomer Chart porn and if you are so inclined, I think it is going to get worse, then better, then beware the ides of march or the middle of February (Sochi, UK gov is SURE somethign will happen there....how do they know?)....But 20th MArch is their War date.....
Shades of 2003 in the air, irrationality abounds...
ori
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/war-inc/
Yes. next question please.
"We can't help but see the irony of this tumult and the possibility of a global financial meltdown occurring on the day of Bernanke's last FOMC meeting..."
Go in pieces, Bernanke.
Shabbat Shalom, motherfucker.
I think attempting to influence the Fed by moving the market is probably the most ridiculously expensive and wasteful idea I have ever heard.
How much money does it take to move the FX universe 100bps? More than the GDP of Switzerland.
You do not direct capital at the market to try and budge the policy makers, you direct it at their pocket.
shoots across the bow! retaliate, econ war has broke out- thanks ben, nice job! you can only fuck the world over so long befor intended consequence start what we have right now. dump treasuries if you want a real econ war. force the hand that slapped you. gold baby gold...
It makes sense when you know the difference between money and wealth.
nice-i'm cheer leading a no brainer with a timing risk..
Where is that retarded SocGen analyst?
The CBRT did not disappoint tonight. The CBRT just announced a massive 425bp rate hike. Governor Basci, you have avoided a domino crisis in EM... I definitely feel much better about the TRY... Hence we just entered a long TRY/ZAR targeting a tactical move to 5.10. The TRY crisis is over.
Page Benoit Anne STAT!!!!
Wearing a gorilla costume in the cargo hold of a Parisian train.
I often puzzled by market's irrational reactions to a headline. Now I understand, it is because of the imbeciles as Anne Benoit gambling with billions of other people's money.
There are just too many greedy imbeciles (most of them are incompetent cronies) working at these TBTF banks.
The Lira soared on light vol and got crushed on heavy volume a couple hours before the US open. The Lira got the PM hammer today. Something smells fishy....as usual, mind you.
There are just too many greedy imbeciles working at these TBTF banks"--- Ya think?
Where's Beeks?
And Jim Cramer said anybody that didnt start buying on Monday was "Stupid "
Holy Shit, Leroy; t he Silver Market has gone vertical ! New York is losing control; Bleeep, Bleeep, Bleeep; emergency stations !!
S&P500 futures down 15 points in the night market; silver is going vertical; holy shit, Jim. The Long Bond is up 13 ticks; somebody is nervous in the service; INCOMING ! get your head down !.
And you thought the NFL was exciting; now this is some real shit. be a lot of homey's jumpin out of buildings soon.
Obammey promises to act alone on t he economy, and singlehandedly scares the crap out of every market participant from Yonkers to Belfast.
SAT:
4 up arrows. One for each post.
I was thinking about a cup of coffee, however, don't need one now.
Love your humor.
Can't wait for VIX to finally start rocking ! Been sitting on my VIX Calls for awhile too.
neh.... here is a jackass.... Let's ride him
Gold and 10yUST are acting like taper off...even complete reversal. Equities are acting like a larger than anticipated taper. OR a rate hike is coming.
VIX maybe the smart trade to run today.
I have no fucking clue what's going on; the mindfuck is complete in the 'new' normal.
CBs ease; gold hammered. CBs 'tighten'; gold pops a boner (soon to be a little chubby after the BIS gets to work this am)
Good news is bad I news is good news is bad news...no news matters, until it does.
Trillions in CB balance sheet expansion, hot money everywhere, leveraged to the hilt on margin...
You can't look at the dailiy events; they're just noise. like static on a radio. In the long term the paper currencies are doomed and their stock markets are too;
I do and I don't. I stack and don't contribute to my company 401k program any longer (been trying to pull the cash, but they're giving me the run around; gotta get terminated in order to pull it or some shit). So daily gyrations don't really have an impact on me.
But then again they do as interest rates, inflation and the FED fuck things up for the fiat paper in which I am forced to transact.
For the past few years now, I've been hoping for this thing to burn to the ground so we can get on with it, regardless of what the future holds, good or bad. This slow motion train wreck is nauseating.
tune in, tune out, drop a little dust outa that coon skin cap...
\timmy oleary where are you? surfs up, a raddy swim today?
You sound young. (Unlike me.)
Those nearer to retirement age may depending on the language of the 401k plan be eligible for "inservice withdrawals."
Getting terminated to cash in a 401k doesn't sound like a good idea.
Money Market perhaps?
Fear not Ghengis.
You can now invest "risk free" in MyRA.
Not really mine, I mean yours.
You'll get 2.5% too!
Safe and rich.
Isn't life great?
Lulz!
Some .gov flunkie needs to explain to us why people can't just open a Roth IRA and by treasuries. Because you don't get pre-tax treatment? So .gov is giving up the marginal tax benefit so that they can confiscate the entire MyRA funds (covertly or overly)?
By the way, where is that LulzSec outfit? Did the sequester reduce the CIA's fictions online 'hacker' division?
Had the same idea.
There are plenty of treasury mutual funds available for your 401k (if you have an independent accoutn) and or IRA's.
Roth's may be better for growth.
Gold and treasuries are reacting to ....Fear ... is what my broker told me this morning.
This could be due to the MyRA. I mean, I want gold more than ever if the FED exit strategy is selling 4tril in bonds to citizens as "retirement"...
Stuff the Obama fans with the Fed's $4 trillion. The sheep like getting sheared.
Guess Obamacare wasn't enough.
The desperation is becoming public and obvious !
OR,....equities are acting like investors are realizing that no amount of QE can induce people to buy the latest version of the same old products in ever increasing quantities.
That is the new norm...."maybe" because nothing makes any fucking sense anymore.
Yipee kyaaaaaa mother****ers!
May you live in interesting times.
Funny!
A little too interesting.
Is that Chinese saying meant to be a blessing, a curse, a warning, an insult or a nonsense compilation of words to fuck with people?
Yes!
Those amazing inscrutables!
Loving the voltility lately, shaking out the weak longs is make making things interesting.
This is easy, ObaMao simply needs to take moar unilateral action and force american debt serfs to buy his new stawk index IRA's with their unemployment checks.
Listening to mac daddy last night talk about risk free bond purchases for retiremnet MYRA was, in a few words, sickening and fascinating. It takes a special type of sociopath to gloss over the collapse of Mbs, cmbs, and the bond market as central banks around the FUCKING WORLD buy bonds en masse with money printed from nothing or seize pension funds to prop up the ponzi,.
And that is it folks...
6 years ago- 'Don't worry, we GOT this shit! As long as China keeps buying our bonds, it's all good!'
4 years ago- 'Dont worry, we GOT this shit! FED will just buy all our own bonds!'
Today- 'Don't worry, we GOT this shit! I'll mandate the lower class will buy all our own bonds!
+1
Love it Sheepdog!
Post of the week, SheepDog- I'm re-tweeting it.....
Bond index?
Just think of all the new buyers of Pms.....Turkey...South Africa...Ukraine...Venezuela...Argentina...people just trying to save what they have..from the paper crash..
After that, just think of all the fresh new debt slaves selling PM's to service the paper debt explosion. But fear not, the central bank buyers of last resort will step in to prop the price of gold back up again by buying some ridiculous amount of gold for further exerimentation.
didnt even wait for the feds speech
...or the decision has been leaked already.
Bernanke is a sly motherfucker....he got out just before SHTF
And like I said way back, Yellen was obviously just the stooge sit-in to take the heat for the SHTF.
@SDO
Well, she's a very willing stoop.
with the added bonus that we get to blame a chick.
Well, a WINO anyway (Woman In Name Only)
You know, I'm not sure there isn't some truth it in that. Same deal with Obama. Since practically all of those at the very top of the 'elite' pyramid are old-money, white and male (notoriously sexist and racist, in other words), I do wonder if there isn't a bit of backdoor psychology going on here. Not that they've necessarily set it up that way (though they probably did) but you can be sure it'll be quietly pointed out;
"See what happens when you let colored people and women near the money! In future, best leave it to those whose families have taken such good care of it for centuries".
No, informed people will still be blaming two men (Bernanke and Greenspan).
Well, MINO anyway.
Don't worry Damnit (to) Hellin will save us!
So are these rate increases (Turkey, S. Africa) a strategic currency war move by the BRICS + Turkey + Iran (who are already or about to join the BRICS)? To sink the $U.S. ? Will be interesting to see if other BRICS or loosely aligned BRICS (eg, Singapore, S.E. Asia) raise rates in the coming hours or days.
It's thieves falling out amongst themselves; it's the beginnings of the real currency wars; as opposed to the cold war, or the phoney war; this be the shootin and lootin currency war. Coming soon to a theatre near you. Strangely enough, the crash will be televised.
yep...
trade war --> currency war --> shootin' war
time for something to get blown up
Hungary Delays FX Mortgage Plan on Legal UncertaintyOh no.
Poor Hungary.
They always seem to be the first one shot by the MOTU's.
Here we go again.
The thing about stuff that's inevitable is; it always happens. Even the Silver at $150/oz. that's going to happen too. It'll seem a little startling after all this, seemingly long time, of renewed belief in the STAWKS; but the failure is built in. It's like an airliner manufacturer that uses Ford car engines and little wooden propellors; wouldn't you want to short it?
How right you are SAT 800. The thing is, there are few people patient enough to wait for the inevitable, and even fewer people who not only have the patience, but also have the discipline to not overplay their hand with margin so that they can be wiped out by the dealers while waiting for the inevitable.
why the hell are gov bonds surging ? who's dumb enought to invest in those no return craps ???? i mean i you don't want paper, why would you want bonds on future inflated paper ????
I remember the times when U.S. Treasury bonds didn't swing wildly daily like a new CNBC MOMO stock pick.
Most financial professionals "believe" in Bonds; they're a "flight to quality"; You're right and they're wrong; that's all. Keep buying Silver.
Too much paper out there sloshing around that must find highly liquid and safe, on a relative basis, places to go.
US Tsys fit that profile...for now.
They call her Myra. They call me Mister Tibbs.
Super B:
It's a temporary phenomenon.
Bring it!
Here it comes bitchez!
http://youtu.be/wepAxJ6BN30
Be patient. Gold hasn't had it's normal morning smackdown yet. FED emplyuees are delayed due to the snow.
It is all so very boringly predictable when the gold buyer/sellers of last resort left standing are central banks.
My prediction? Gold goes to ~1270, hangs there for a while, and then breaks through violently to end up ~3% on the day. Why would gold go up when QE is tightening you ask? Because with QE tightening smart investors will tend to pull money from BOTH equities AND bonds, as both will be impacted. With bonds not acting as the same safe haven that it has traditionally been, gold will be a logical alternative, particularly after the two-year long beat down.
I should also disclose that it makes no difference to me personally either way. I'm holding for much higher prices with a years long horizon.
I wonder if, as advised by some gold bloggers out there, it is really getting harder and harder for captured exchanges to force the price down on the end-of-month settlement days.
Let the money wars commence in the race for hyperinflation!
Winner gets a brand new dictator puppet managed by Goldman!
+1
Nothing like ZH humor to get a body going in the morning.
This can't be... Bearded Lloyd said to be long emerging markets. Please recheck this.
I smell another QE increase fart
"We can't help but see the irony of this tumult and the possibility of a global financial meltdown occurring on the day of Bernanke's last FOMC meeting..."
And wouldn't that be just The Shit!?! At the last meeting the curtain gets pulled back and- ala Wizard of Oz- the charade is revealed...
"Why, you're not a wizard at all, you're just a man! And you're a very bad man for pretending to be a wizard!"
i was wondering, black swan with an orange and honey glaze served on a bed of carmelized onion maybe?
"Emerging Market Meltdown resumes"---BRING IT !!
Gold is for the first time in history worth nothing without central banks buying/selling it too and fro, backwards and forwards to each other like buyers of last resort. I for one am not impressed at how predictable this is becoming. The rest are selling gold to service debt and so forth.
Who needs gold confiscation laws when you print money and aquire new debt slaves for pennies on the dollar.
The alchemy of turning gold into lead has been perfected in a timely manner.
I bet there will be 5 other emergency meetings in the next week for CBs...small countires that jump in the game...war..
That's 5 more opportunities for the central bank alchemists to further perfect the process of turning gold into lead (Pb) or maybe something heavier and harder like DU. I guess they are getting good at it now that an endless supply of cheap gold for experimental purposes has been secured via tax payer donations, helicopter bailouts, and the very latest in high teck golden parachutes.
instead of 1998 another look isthe 80's and the Latin American debt collapse only this time it's "global."
it doesn't matter how high the rates go this is all leading a a rash of defaults.
I fail to see where "Brady Bonds" will work since first off it's too big and second it's centered in Europe.
I wouldn't go anywhere near the euro...nor the Swiss franc.
Even the British Pound looks suspect to me...but we'll see.
Once these Domino's start falling (again) we'll see where the leverage was long...and wrong...again.
What a way for the Fed to off-load it's $4 tillion, MYRA. As someone pointed out earlier.
The schemes get more grand as time goes on.
My favorite is still the $1 trillion coin.
"We can't help but see the irony of this tumult and the possibility of a global financial meltdown occurring on the day of Bernanke's last FOMC meeting..."
So true. And yet I also take a perverse pleasure in seeing the market meltdown in the midst of Lord Obama pumping the stock market last night. Further reinforcing his image to any remaining thinking individual as a consummate bullshitter and consummately clueless, all at the same time.
MyRAs for the proletariate masses, comrades! Forward!!
May the ounces be ever in your favor.
The fat lady (Yellen) is about to start singing...
Emerging markets are toast. That includes Canada and Australia.
This is what you call emerging................to the downside
As I posted on another thread, I just returned from an international Christian conference in Argentina, where I met Christian pastors and missionaries from many parts of the world (including Turkey). These were pastors and missionaries who work in poor neighborhoods, almost exclusively, not billionaire Davos participants, or Wall-Street market analysts, so believe what you will about who understands the conditions on the street in these countries better. All I can tell you is that the delegation from Brazil was concerned, very concerned, that Brazil was very close to civil disorder and chaos.. very close. Believe what you will about Argentina, or South Africa, or Turkey, but the most concerned, by far, group that I encountered were from Brazil...
SILVER BITCHAEZ !! It protects against VAMPIRES !. Sorry, I had to do it; the devil made me.
This is hardly a meltdown. The world is merely gliding downward at this point. I'm still waiting for something to go off the cliff overnight.