SocGen Takes Its Morning After Mea Culpa Pill

Tyler Durden's picture

From the analyst (SocGen's Benoit Anne) who just over 12 hours ago (despite our various caveats) said this...

Hats Off To The CBRT


The CBRT did not disappoint tonight. The CBRT just announced a massive 425bp rate hike. Governor Basci, you have avoided a domino crisis in EM. The policy response to severe financial stability risks was punchy, aggressive and credible. An amazing job overall. The CBRT is now back in the game after going through a few tough weeks during which its credibility was heavily challenged by emerging market investors. Is Turkey out of the woods? Not quite of course. There are still two major issues. On the domestic side, the political environment continues to be quite challenging, with little sign this will improve anytime soon. Meanwhile, the global  backdrop remains quite challenging for GEM at this point, and we are still very much in the middle of our Doom phase. So while the CBRT has done a great job at containing financial stability risks, there is going to be more work to do. In any case, I definitely feel much better about the TRY, at least on a tactical basis. Hence we just entered a long TRY/ZAR targeting a tactical move to 5.10. The TRY crisis is over.

Comes this...

We take profit on our TRY/ZAR trade recommendation which we entered last night at a level of 4.92. At the time of writing, the level is 4.968 resulting in a gain of 1.0% before carry. The short-lived relief rally in the TRY was swiftly interrupted by a shift in market sentiment, with the updated policy implementation failing to deliver the intended improvements in clarity. On the other hand, an unimpressive 50bp hike from SARB on the heels of CBRT’s punchier response fell short of expectations. Overall, the market continues to trade in a panic mode, notwithstanding the monetary policy responses spreading fast across EM, as real policy rates come increasingly under scrutiny.

All one can say is: "LOL"

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Pool Shark's picture



"We have always been at war with Eastasia..."


whatsinaname's picture

Totally OT - but for anybody who cares to answer..

If anybody can be more aware of the power of gold in a crisis it ought be Germany. So how has Germany been faring on the Gold buying front. Have they been buying a lot or are they just sitting and hoping that they will get their US gold back in time ?


Headbanger's picture

Wir unsere Möglichkeiten haben..

Grande Tetons's picture

Just for comedy....I hope the Lira soars like a fucking eagle today. 

Benoit will go bowling in his Napolen outfit.

Jayda1850's picture

I would say this guy should be fired by the end of the day for being proved a complete fool with in the span of 12 hours, but in the new normal he will probably promoted, given a bonus and invited to speak on CNBS. fuck these -1% days, bring on the cascading collapses of 2008.

Seasmoke's picture

So they got in before anyone and out before anyone. Anyone stupid enough to follow them, is left to fend for themselves. Hope the commission's were worth This.  

teolawki's picture

Mr. Abe is envious.

Max Damage's picture

He could have simply said


"About that trade we said yesterday, if you had transferred it into a money market fund, swapped currency, and reinvested in our mutual fund, and it's gone"

Unprepared's picture

So, is this the 1990's Southeast Asian contagion or the 1980's Latin American's debt crisis?

Let's ask the IMF.

Cacete de Ouro's picture

'failing to deliver the intended improvements in clarity'

"Eh Sir, I will repeat, you put the chip on red, the ball landed on black. Can someone call security please, this Frenchman has had too much to drink."

SheepDog-One's picture

'We declare the TRY crisis official solved!'

A few hours later- 'Oh wait...nevermind.'

Yancey Ward's picture

Anne was heard exclaiming:  "Inconceivable!"

superflex's picture

Sounds like Gartman with his supreme hindsight.

Volaille de Bresse's picture

They showed "Midnight Express" last night on French TV... Synchrnonicity in butt-fucking!

Seize Mars's picture

Well let's see what the assholes do now. Maybe more aggressive rate hikes? After all if this fucking "markets" won't give the expected results, just do MOAR. I wouldn't bet against it happening. But I would also fade the move "all in."

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Soc Gen, RU469 or RU468?